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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 11 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1835)
00:44:28
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Want to know the secret to success around the holidays? Two words. Duracell Batteries. Because giving someone a gift that needs batteries without giving them the batteries too, that's not a gift anymore. Plus, Duracell batteries are the only battery brand with power boost ingredients, which are a unique blend of nickel and lithium that can only be found in Duracell batteries. So make sure those gifts have the power they need on Christmas morning and stock up on the only battery brand with power boost ingredients, Duracell. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson. Erickson it's only the second to last episode we are doing of this show in its current iteration of a trade, you know, discussion show because the trade deadline is going to hit in many fantasy leagues here in just a couple of weeks. So what we're going to do just a little housekeeping, keep people kind of appraised of what's coming ahead. We've got this week's show, we going to do one more next week. We're going to take that Tuesday off the week of Thanksgiving and then we are coming back with a different version of the show. It'll still be Ericson and me. It'll still be on Tuesdays. We'll be doing some more prediction based stuff for each and every week, but it will look a little different. So if you have trade questions, this is the next two weeks to get them in. Erickson, are you excited to be kind of transitioning into the like fantasy playoffs ish section of the season? It feels like it comes very quickly, but it's kind of an exciting time too.
- [01:25]
B
Yes I am because to be honest, I'm starting to run out of names of buy low sell high on X players because sometimes I keep going back to certain players because I just feel very strongly about I really want this guy on my roster or I really don't want this guy on my roster. But for the sake of the content I don't want to be so repetitive but I also want to be right and want to be accurate. So I know that we were getting annoyed by Travan Henderson every single week. Buy low buy low trivia Henderson like don't give up and it ended up working out. Trayvon Henderson, Smash second half league winner hopefully for the Patriots running back. But yeah, I'm ready to get the the playoff schedules. Talk about those today with some of these buys and sells and also talking about if you need a player to get into the playoffs. So someone that has an immediate schedule that's favorable, maybe that can also help too. So two more weeks, get your questions in and hopefully you can make some trades that'll help you win your league.
- [02:14]
A
Erickson I once again was not able to watch Monday Night Football. I am a YouTube TV subscriber and you know I'm not going to go out of my way to pay for an ESP app just for one game every week. So until they figure it out, I am not watching the Monday Night Games. I hope the Ravens don't have any Monday night games the rest of the season because then I might actually be forced into it. But for now I am not. Didn't seem like I missed a whole lot though. 10 to 7 and that scoring all coming in the second half. This was a nothing, nothing tie at halftime. I was following along in the box score as it happened and a lot of dud performances from some of the folks that we really rely on. You know, Saquon Barkley not a dud, but wasn't this big explosive game. Devonte Smith did have a good game, which I know you had talked about. A.J. brown did not. That was a dud game. Jalen Hurts not living up to his usual self. Just one touchdown in this game. Josh Jacobs was pretty good, 74 yards and a touchdown. Jordan Love did not have any touchdowns, didn't do anything and really nothing going in the receiving game for the Packers. Was this more of like oh man, like Tucker Kraft is gone and A.J. brown having a bad game and that was hurting them or was this more of like the defenses really showed up? I mean I again I didn't watch the game so I can't really speak to it very well.
- [03:21]
B
I think it's really more about the defenses. I think that they're two of the better defenses in the NFL and can perform at a top 10 level. Also playing on the road at Lambeau, it's always going to be a tough draw for any opposing offense, even one that can be as good as the Philadelphia Eagles. So both teams also had offensive line injuries. Elton Jenkins got hurt for the Packers, Lane Johnson got hurt for the Philadelphia Eagles and he's a big piece for them up front. You see the splits when he doesn't play. That Eagles offense falls off significantly. So he did return to the game somehow after going off on the cart and looking like he suffered a brutal ankle injury. He's just built totally different. Lane Johnson an absolute unit and he actually so he did return to the game. So interested to see what that injury looks like if it is long term at all or if it's just, hey, he's just going to blattle through this injury all year long and just be a warrior. So that's something to kind of keep tabs on. So yes, the defense has definitely dominated in this matchup. Offensively from the Eagle side of things, look, it was more of Devontae Smith. That's why I was concerned about A.J. brown and Devonte Smith. Smith has just been better all year long over A.J. brown. He's been more efficient career yards per route run this season while AJ Brown career low in yards per out run. And out of the bye week you think, okay, they're probably going to get AJB going. Three targets. He had one target in the second half which was on fourth down, which could have closed the game for the Philadelphia Eagles. The way they went for it obviously didn't end up working out. They ended up winning because Josh Jacobs fumbled on the final drive for the Green Bay Packers. So Eagles still escape with the win on the road, which is obviously big for them. But offensively, the past game didn't look too different from what it looked like before the bye week. More of Devontae Smith and Dallas Goedert than A.J. brown and Saquon Barkley. He did seed some touches early on to guys like Will Shipley and Tank Bigsby, but in the second half they were featuring him. But again, not really anything that pops off the box score. Except for that one 41 yard catch he had that was really his biggest play. Not as a run, but as a receiver, which set up the Devonta Smith touchdown from Jalen Hurts, by the way.
- [05:18]
A
And just because I mentioned the YouTube TV stuff, in case anybody who is a YouTube TV subscriber didn't know this, you get a $20 credit because this dispute has gone on long enough. You have to claim it. They're not going to give it to you automatically. You have to go into your YouTube TV settings. It's like a service update or something. You probably google it and find it and you actually have to. It's just one button to click it, but you have to actually go in and claim it. Otherwise you're not getting that $20 credit. So just as a PSA for everybody to go do, if you are a YouTube TV subscriber, at least get a small something out of this. Let's go into our running back buys and sells. This will be part one of the episode. As always, we'll be talking about running backs here to Buy, sell. We'll do some audience questions at the end that we got on social media. Then we'll have a part two again that's gonna be on both YouTube and on wherever you get your audio podcast. Do you have Ericsson? I know we sometimes do this kind of micro level trade strategy at the top. We sometimes don't. Do you have anything for us there this week or should we dive into the running backs?
- [06:13]
B
Let's just dive right in. First of the picks. That's all people want.
- [06:16]
A
Get right to it. First running back to Vi here, Aaron Jones. Why is he atop your list?
- [06:22]
B
So Aaron Jones kind of took over the backfield in Minnesota since he returned from his injury last week. 72% of the snaps, nine carries, 47 yards and a touchdown. Also heavily involved as a pass catcher. Three catches for 22 yards on six targets. And as underwhelming as McCarthy has kind of been as the Viking quarterback this season, Aaron Jones has been pretty strong in the starts that he has had and played in full. He's been a top 20 fantasy running back in the three games. He's kind of stayed healthy for the entirety with JJ McCarthy under center this season. And I kind of like the schedule rest of season for the Minnesota Vikings with a couple softer spots, especially in the fantasy postseason. Obviously this week you have the Chicago Bears, which is a very positive matchup for Aaron Jones. Now at Green Bay and at Seattle is not ideal weeks 12 and 13, but after that you get matchups like the Ravens, the Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. So there are a couple spots here with Aaron Jones where you can feel, okay, I think I can feel pretty confident with him as a starter and because he's involved in the passing game, I think that does give him a semblance of a floor even in some of these tougher matchups, especially in some of these road games for J.J. mcCarthy. So the Vikings offense is still kind of in disarray. They will potentially get back center Ryan Kelly soon, so hopefully that can Bolst the interior blocking and just we haven't seen Jordan Mason really separate himself. Like he had the opportunity to really take this run game away from Aaron Jones when Jones missed all that time. But they were dealing with injuries, they were dealing with quarterback things. So I don't want to put all the blame on Mason, but again, Mason was a guy who was really high on a draft season, obviously did not hit despite the fact that he did kind of get the Runway with the Aaron Jones injury. Now some of it was circumstantial Just because again mentioned Vikings quarterback problems, Vikings offensive line injuries, but still Mason didn't do enough. So I'm ready to kind of take the L on Mason and then just move on. Be like, nope, I want Aaron Jones like because when he is healthy he's been very effective at scoring fantasy points this year and I like some of these matchups down the stretch. So he would be my buy coming off a again a solid game. But still I think people get concerned about him and his injury track record seems that he's kind of always banged up, which is why he is a little bit risky. But I think it's potentially worth the reward with some of these plus spots.
- [08:29]
A
To give you a sense of some of the concern around Aaron Jones in the consensus rest of season rankings. And these are just amongst the guys who have updated their rankings since these. This last week's games have actually happened. So these are up to date. He is one spot ahead of Alvin Kamara. I don't want anything to do with Alvin Kamara even coming off the game he had. We're going to talk about him later in this episode. And they are back to back in consensus rankings to give you a sense of where that value is, they're in the late 20s, RB27 and RB28 respectively.
- [08:56]
B
So yeah, Aaron Jones can be had. I don't think that a manager is holding on to him with a vice grip. Again. This matchup this week is very good. I would say if you are trying to fight your way into the playoffs, he's probably maybe not the most ideal target. I think that he's better for some of these playoff bound teams just because the Week 12 and 13 matchups are really tough against the packers and Seahawks. So I don't think that he's going to be an RB one in those types of games. But this week obviously is a prime spot against the Bears and then some of those playoff matchups that I outlined.
- [09:27]
A
Yeah. What would you give up for him? I mean he's a veteran. He's had the injury stuff.
- [09:32]
B
If I can make that happen. Okay, I'm definitely doing that. Okay.
- [09:38]
A
Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, yeah, I don't, I don't feel it's interesting. A lot of the guys we talk about on this show throughout the year are like, oh, you want to take a swing on this guy? Because the upside is really high going forward. This feels more just like he is undervalued. It's hard to paint a picture where Aaron Jones is like a top eight running Back, you know, over a three week stretch and really like hammers at home for you. That ceiling feels like it's not there. But I like, I like really strongly agree that he is undervalued in the rankings and is probably like a smart buy. It's just more of a, like you're going to be getting good value out of it and less of a. He's going to be a true league winner for you. Does that feel fair?
- [10:18]
B
I think I'd probably give him a little bit more credit. We've seen Aaron Jones kind of do this same song and dance before where he misses basically the entire first half of the season and then he comes back.
- [10:27]
A
Yeah, but he's 30 now. Like, is that gonna happen?
- [10:32]
B
You're right. You're right.
- [10:33]
A
I genuinely, I, I really don't know what to say about J.J. mcCarthy. Like, it was true. He makes good plays and like, I think he has in him to be a good quarterback down the line. He clearly needs more experience and more reps, which, you know, obviously I'm glad he's getting. But like the inconsistency is like clearly going to be there throughout this season. Like, I don't think even Debro, like could not argue against that. He loves J.J. mcCarthy more than anybody. And the inconsistency isn't necessarily the worst thing. Like, like if as long as you make two or three great throws, Justin Jefferson can still be good with an inconsistent quarterback. Right. It's just going to be less consistent. The problem for me is just the general offense, scoring opportunities. If he is that inconsistent. And so if he continues to take steps forward, which I think is totally on the table, and then the scoring opportunities can be there for Jones. If not, that does worry me too. Again, not in terms of him as a value, but in terms of as far as having a high ceiling.
- [11:24]
B
I would, I would agree with that. Two names to throw out you before we get to the next. By low running back or just by running back Woody Marks or Aaron Jones or Rashad White or Aaron Jones or Tyron Tracy. That's another name too.
- [11:41]
A
Do we know what's going on with Bucky Irving?
- [11:43]
B
Before I answer the Rashad White, it's not coming back. I'm not sure it matters.
- [11:48]
A
So I would rather have Jones and Tyrone Tracy.
- [11:53]
B
Okay.
- [11:55]
A
Which I don't know if that's considered, you know, a hot take or not. Like I, I, I, to me, that's actually a fairly easy call. Marks versus Jones, I actually think is not an easy call. I would probably slightly lean Jones, but I see them as very close.
- [12:09]
B
But that's one that you could see get done if you trade marks.
- [12:12]
A
Yes, I could see that getting done. Yes. Yeah. All right, let's go to your next running back to buy Jalen Warren.
- [12:19]
B
So he has been on this show before. So we are repeating some names. So I am cheating.
- [12:22]
A
He has been discussed on the show before. He has not been on the program. He's not a friend of the show.
- [12:27]
B
Well, we never know. You never know which guests. Again, we're going to do some wild things after the trades end with some of these predictions. So maybe the bold prediction is we'll get Jalen Warren on the fantasy pros program. Regardless, I expect Warren to finish the season very strong so far this year. He's RB18 expected points per game, and I think that he's kind of been the most efficient guy of the Steelers running backs last week. Fourteen carries for 70 yards again, did not pop off with this monster game just because we saw the Steelers offense really struggle against the Chargers. But despite that, Jalen Warren was still giving you something despite a terrible performance from the offense overall. He's jumping over dudes, he's looking explosive, he's breaking tackles. He's just a good player. You know, he's ranked really highly in terms of some of the efficiency metrics this year. 19th in PFFS grades, 11th in rushing success rate. He only has two rushing touchdowns all year long. So I think that he's going to be bound for some positive touchdown regression because he's been so efficient as a rusher this season. They're facing the Bengals this week. They're the number one defense in terms of giving up fantasy points allowed to running backs. I don't think that things have improved over there. Bye week. Maybe Joe Burrow coming back at some point inspires the defense to make a tackle, but is it going to mean they're going to make the tackle every single time? Probably not. So, again, similar to Aaron Jones, I like some of these spots here for Jalen Warren, especially over the next four weeks. So if you're trying to make a playoff push, I think that Jalen Warren can kind of be the key to that, to really give you some boosted running back production, especially if he starts to run a little bit hotter with some of these touchdowns, some of these plus matchups for the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I like buying Jalen Warren. He's a good player. He's been efficient this season and he's due for some touchdowns.
- [14:00]
A
If you look at the top 25 running backs in just terms of rushing yards this season. This is across the whole NFL top 25, one running back has a single touchdown. That's Alvin Kamara. There is a four way tie for second lowest. And. And Jaylen Warren, it's on that list. It's him, Tony Pollard, Bree hall and Bijan Robinson. So you know guys that you would expect to have scored more based on the number of rushing yards that they have at this point in the year. Running cold. Warren's in that list in the end in that conversation, is he somebody like. I don't feel the same way about him as I did about Aaron Jones in terms of saying he doesn't have a real ceiling. But what do you think that ceiling is for Warren? Because it is a little hard to see him as like again in that like upper, upper echelon. Which, which is not the argument you're trying to make. But where, where do you think that ceiling is in terms of he's really hitting on the upside and he's starting it to run a little hotter on touchdowns that maybe like regress in that way. Where do you think he ends up in terms of like a high level outcome?
- [15:01]
B
I think that he could probably end up being a low end fantasy RB1 the rest of the way because you look at what he's kind of done without the touchdowns, it's basically been a fantasy RB2. Right. And that's without any type of touchdown deodorant whatsoever. He's doing it on all rushing efficiency involved in the passing game enough. And I do think it's noteworthy that Kenneth Gainwell had no carries in this last game against Chargers. It was Caleb Johnson that was actually the next running back in and he's still a rookie. So if they're kind of getting lukewarm on, okay, we're trying to limit touches for gain. Well then I think that does open up the opportunity for Jalen Warren to potentially seize a larger snapshare for this backfield. See those red zone and goal line opportunities and I think right now is the last time you get a chance because he's going to have a big game against Cincinnati Bengals. Even if he doesn't score once, I still think the rushing yards is going to be there and just given the matchup, he should score in this game. So Jalen Warren, for me by low.
- [15:57]
A
Thinking about the matchups too, like I've made this point a couple of times. So just for maybe those who haven't heard it yet, late in the season, I am less concerned about bad teams. With good defenses. And I bring that up because Week 17 Fantasy Championship Jalen Warren is at Cleveland. That would be highlighted as, oh, really difficult matchup. That's a great run defense. Defense, especially run defense, is really about effort at the end of the day. And if we're in week 17 and the Browns are 3 and 13 or 3 and 12, whatever would be going into that, Like, I think there's a chance that the defense isn't, you know, it's a rivalry game, so maybe, maybe I'm wrong about that. But, you know, I just feel like I'm not. I'm less scared in those situations than I am early in the year because a people can get hurt and that defense looks a lot different and B, like I don't know that the effort will be there if it's already a lost season and you're just playing out the string anyway. So I would be less scared off by those sorts of situations than maybe the defensive ranking would suggest.
- [17:00]
B
Yeah, no, I agree with that.
- [17:02]
A
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- [19:00]
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- [19:35]
A
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- [20:49]
B
Yeah, I'm always giving away the goods before we actually get to the running backs.
- [20:53]
A
Yourself.
- [20:54]
B
Well, because when you ask, well, who would you give away for this player? Obviously these guys are always top of mind for me because I'm talking about them writing them down as sales. So the first guy for me is Rashad White, I think is a sell. So aside from the Bucky Irvin conversation, which we can follow up on here, Worm, because we still don't really know exactly when that's going to play out, but just what we've seen from this backfield the last couple weeks between Rashad White and Sean Tucker. So we've seen closer to a 50, 50 workload in terms of the carry amount. So last week, Sean Tucker was the first running back to face the New England Patriots, the best run defense in the NFL, to go over 50 rushing yards against the Patriots. He was the only guy that's done it so far this season. And it's after another week before their bye week when Sean Tucker saw more carries. So right now we're starting to see Rashad White and Sean Tucker split carries for the Buccaneers while Bucky Irving remains sidelined. The split has been 23 carries for white, 21 in favor of Sean Tucker. But Tucker has just as many red zone attempts as Rashad White, as many goal line attempts as Rashad White does, and he actually has more yards. So although White does offer that pass catching every single week, especially when the Buccaneers are throwing more, there is that floor that he offers I'm not so sure that I feel so great about. Oh, Rashad White locked into this 90% snap role like we've seen at times this year with Bucky Irving out. So given the fact that he's starting to seed or lose out touches to Sean Tucker, especially in the red zone, and that Bucky Irving will eventually come back at some point, maybe it's not in the next couple weeks, but thinking about like the fantasy playoffs, is Bucky Irving back by then? I think so. So that is going to potentially evaporate all the value that White has left, which is the reason why I'm trying to ship him off while he still put up a decent box score. Again, caught five passes last week, wasn't a bus for your lineup. I just don't want it to go Unnoticed that Sean Tucker is becoming a bigger part of this Bucks offense.
- [22:48]
A
I think it's a good note for people who might have missed that. White's not somebody that I really like all that much anyway. Like, I. I don't think he's that good of a player. I worry about how long the usage is going to last. Like, you have already highlighted here, it's already starting to not last. Like, I'm. I'm just not really that interested in him anyway. So I'd be willing to sell, like, pretty low on him, honestly. Like, I wouldn't need a whole lot. I wouldn't give him away for literally nothing, but I wouldn't need a ton in return to be willing to move off of White. So, like, I'm very much on board with this one here. Is there a name that comes to mind for you that, like, just right off the bat, like, this is the type of guy that I would give him up for. Like, not. I. I don't even want you to throw out a name that, like, hey, you should aim high for this. Like, who are the names that you were, like, willing to settle for to move off of White?
- [23:35]
B
I think that going it that way is the wrong approach. I think it's more about you're. If you have Rashad White, you find the Bucky Irving manager, because that's the person that's going to give you the most for White, regardless of whatever position it is. So I think sometimes in trades, we become so fixated on this player for this player when it's, let's target the manager. Like, that's what we're trying to do here. And I think the person that's going to give you the most for Rashad White, based on the value that he's offering right now, is the person that's sitting on Bucky Irving. Keeps getting updates from Todd Bowles that says, yeah, I don't know when he's coming back. I'm not really sure because that's panic for that manager to think, man, I just got to get Rashad White. So that's a player that. I think that that's the move that you try to make. So, unfortunately, I can't see anyone's roster right now, but that's what I would. I would presume that that's probably the best move to make to get the maximum return for Rashad White. So whether it's a running back, a tight end, a wide receiver, quarterback, find the Bucky Irving manager who's probably panicking, freaking out because there's still no timetable on when Irving is supposed to come back.
- [24:37]
A
This is not a trick question. He has done it this year. When was the last week that you think Rashad White averaged at least 4 yards per carry?
- [24:49]
B
It was probably. It was the Texans game, I think. Right. Which was like week three, week two.
- [24:55]
A
It was the Texas game.
- [24:56]
B
Okay. I knew it was the Texas. I can remember they play the text.
- [24:58]
A
Yeah. He has not averaged even four yards per carry. In fact, most weeks he's been under three yards per carry. Although. Yeah. Three of the last four years that's.
- [25:05]
B
Kind of been, you know, White's not. Not claim to fame like the opposite of claim to fame because he's basically known more as a pass catcher. I would say too as well. I didn't talk about this when I was first outlining Rashad White. The Buccaneers also lost an offensive lineman. They lost one of their interior left guards, Ben Bredesen. He got hurt against the Patriots. So again, another offensive line piece down that hurts the interior protection. So just another reason why I don't expect Rashad White's efficiency to dramatically change. And I think you can even probably use the Buffalo matchup this week as another reason to push someone towards trading for Rashad White. Because on paper, the matchup against the Bills is excellent for running backs.
- [25:45]
A
Yeah. His claim to lame. That feels to me. There's something. We'll figure it out. Yeah. I'm not a Rashad White guy. Let's go to the next one. Who? The aforementioned Alvin Camara. We're sticking in the NFC south for this running backs to sell section. Frankly, last week I did multiple shows with people who had Camara as a player to drop. Like reached that level. If you didn't drop him, this is your nectar from the fantasy gods. Your opportunity. Just the open window here to say. And then of course there's a bye week. So it's like how much can you even really sell them for? Even if you could convince somebody that this is a bounce back game and this is the time. But I mean, similar to Rashad White, Erickson, maybe you have a different strategy here too. My thought with Camara is like trade him for. Absolutely. And if there's. If you can get a player that you don't want to immediately drop, make that trade.
- [26:41]
B
Yeah, that's exactly what I would do here. Thing with Camara is. Yes. Bounced back in a big way last week. 25 touches for over 100 yards from scrimmage, 22 carries, three passes for 32 yards. Worm, he wasn't a fantasy RB1. Last week he had 25 touches and still couldn't finish as a fantasy RB1, which I don't think that he's finished at all this season. I don't think he has one RB1 finish on the year inside the top 12. So I don't know.
- [27:10]
A
He does not, he does not have one finish and I'm looking. This is in half EPR scoring. He does not have a single finish inside the top 15. You even give him a buffer of a few spots to get up to RB1. He does not have. His best finish this year is RB16. And by the way, it was not a good game. It was in week six. He had 10.1 fantasy points. It must have just been a weak week, like a very poor week for running backs for that to be RP16. Well, like, yeah, he, he's only been inside the top 23 times.
- [27:40]
B
It's been tough. And I don't think it's all necessarily on Alvin Camara. He is an older running back. The usage hasn't been nearly as stellar as it's been in years past. I think his receiving has kind of been really inconsistent just this past week. Yes. Even though he got 25 touches, he was still splitting routes with Devin Neal. Devin Neal had just as many targets as Alvin Camara did and he's a rookie running back. So that's a concern for Camaro whether this sticks. How many times are the Saints going to win games for the rest of the season? Right, because you had positive game script here. They were able to load up Alvin Camaro with 25 touches. This might be his touch ceiling all year long. And if this is his ceiling in any game, RB16 on the week or whatever he ended up finishing as, that's just not enough. That's not enough for you to go out and feel confident about Alvin Camara. When we've seen the shaky floor where if Tyler Schuck has a bad game, Camara just kills your lineup and you can't, you can't have that in the fantasy playoffs. So even though Camara, it seems like, yes, okay, it's back. He's got the volume. This can evaporate in bad game scripts. If Devin Neal's more involved, Taysum Hill, he's still seven carries. It's still a three headed backfield where Kellen Moore likes to feature three different guys between Devin Neal, Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. And that's very worrisome. When they get in the red zone, who are they going to deploy as that red zone rusher, is it going to be Taysom Hill vulturing the touchdowns in the fantasy postseason? And you're pulling your hair out. So that's why for me, you got to ship off Alvin Kamara after he had a solid gain here. Like this is your last chance to get anything worth of value for him. Like you said, he's still going on the bye week and I think what you might want to do, I don't know if trade persuade kind of help with this as well, but the schedule, rest of season looks pretty good for Camara. Yeah, that's more of a point of selling than, oh, I need to hold on because it's going to pan out for Camara. Older running backs don't tend to like have monster second half finishes. If anything, it's just a reason to just hold on to Devin Neal. Right? Just keep him on your roster, your rookie running back. If Camara gets banged up or something like that happens, maybe you could see Devin Neal kind of explode if he takes on a larger share of the offense, maybe a little bit more juice as a younger, explosive rookie running back. So, yes, the schedule does seem like maybe there is a glimmer of hope with Alvin Camara, but I've just seen so much from this offense this year. Maybe it's, I mean, are we going to be wrong about Tyler Shuck? Is Tyler Schuck going to change things? I know again, he's had one good game, one bad game. Again, he's a rookie quarterback. Usually they don't tend to elevate offenses, but he looked decent or much better against the Carolina Panthers. So I guess for me I was like, I'm not trying to overthink it and think, oh yeah, like I should have Alvin Kamara on my team now that's kind of how I'm trying to like not do that and just focus on, hey, our sample size this year with Kamara in the Saints office has not been good. So if someone else wants to believe, then I would ship him off.
- [30:20]
A
Yeah, I mean the schedule, like getting Tennessee in week 17, you talked about like how many games are the Saints going to win? Like that's probably one of them. Tennessee is so bad. They do get Carolina again. Miami has been a bad run defense at times this year, although they've been better lately, like that. But that to your point, that is a case to make in trying to convince somebody to take Camara. That's not a case to keep him and like that, that's a way you get a trade Done. That's not a, that's not a justification for saying, well, maybe you know, he gets the volume, keeps up and he's a high floor play. Don't fall for that. He just trade him again. We're talking about this guy as a drop a week ago. Like get whatever you can, a bucket of footballs and be happy and be on your way. Feels like this has been a largely negative episode so far. Just players that I really don't like. Let's get into the the audience questions here, Erickson, and see if we can be maybe a little more positive and help help folks out. First question here, T. Higgins and Kyle Manungai for AJ Brown and Jakori Crosby Merritt.
- [31:32]
B
I want the T. Higgins side. That's.
- [31:36]
A
I want to ask actually Joe Burrow, you know, is now practicing and we didn't really have a natural point to talk about that in our wide Receivers episode. We are not talking about any of the Bengals. So I think this may be a good opportunity to just get your thoughts on that. Like, does that change anything for you? Like he said Thanksgiving ish. If he really is back. Like, let's, let's say he doesn't hit Thanksgiving, but it's the week after which I hope as a Ravens fan, week 14 you are at like basically the end the last week of the regular season in a lot of leagues and then the fantasy playoffs. Are you A, wanting to pick up Burrow if he's been dropped? Are you wanting to consider starting him if you've been holding on to him right off the bat? And B, like Higgins and Chase have been awesome with Flacco. Is it going to be a downgrade? Maybe that first week back it's like, well, we don't know what Burrow is going to look. I know he's Burrow, but like first week back, we don't know what he looks like. A lot of rust, all this stuff. We know how he tends to start seasons with a lot of rust from the summer. Like, is it almost going to be a downgrade for Chase and Higgins at that point? How do you feel about the whole thing?
- [32:40]
B
Yeah, I think that the overarching thought is, oh, it's wheels up, he's back, it's going to be an upgrade. But dude, it's really hard to upgrade what Joe Flacco has been doing with this. Michael's team. It's. I mean they're firing on all cylinders. Chase has seen 15 plus targets a game. So this again, I hate to admit that, but it feels like they are kind of already maxed out. And I don't know if like adding Burrow like changes that dramatically. And it's not because he's not one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. It's just because Joe Flacco has been playing just numbers wise like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL as a passer in just terms of fueling his fantasy wide receivers for production. So I do think that the concern is the rust where we've seen Joe Burrow. You know, he's traditionally one of the worst quarterbacks to open the year weeks one and two if he's missing time. So I almost kind of feel like Burrow wouldn't put himself out there if he didn't feel like he was going to actually help the offense. So maybe it is something that we don't see him until he really feels like he is. No, I feel like I'm ready to go. I don't feel rusty and I'm ready to start. So maybe it is delayed a little bit more. That being said, I think that you would hope that it would be week 14, he would come back if he's going to come back at all. So you can get at least one sample size of him in real game action and then for the playoffs you feel okay, one game under his belt. Now the Bengals can fire and all cylinders throughout the fantasy playoffs, but I think that he definitely is worth an AD if somebody dropped him just because it is Joe Burrow. And the Bengal schedule is just absolutely fantastic and honestly it almost doesn't really matter what the schedule is because their defense is so bad. All the things are shootouts so it helps that the schedule is also good. But just the game scripts that the Bengals playing just create so much potential for fantasy scoring.
- [34:24]
A
I agree with you. I want the T. Higgins and Manon Guy side rather than the A.J. brown and Bill Kresky merit side. Next question here. By the way, these questions came in from Twitter slash X so I try to drop a a post here every week soliciting questions. So keep an eye out next week. Like I said, when it's our last time doing the trades and get your questions in if you have anything specific you want to ask. This question is get Stefan Diggs give away Chase Brown. This person has Amon Ra and CD Lamb, plus Alec Pierce, Parker Washington and Ted McMillan. They on the running back side have Josh Jacobs, Jordan Mason, J.K. dobbins, R.J. harvey. They would be giving away Chase Brown to get Stefan Diggs. I very strongly would not do this. I would much rather have Chase Brown than Diggs. Like probably in a vacuum. Maybe that's like. I think it's probably about even value wise, but given the makeup of this roster, I'd rather have Brown.
- [35:19]
B
Yeah, especially because you just lost Dobbins. Right. We don't know how long his injury is going to.
- [35:23]
A
He has Harvey, so that's like a boost to Harvey. But yeah, like Mason is not startable at this point.
- [35:30]
B
Like, yeah, Mason, you can't start. Mason's a handcuff.
- [35:32]
A
Like, you have Jacobs, one of the Broncos running backs, and that's it. If you get rid of Chase Brown and you have Amon, Ron Lamb, you're never sitting that you can get together one of Alec Pierce, Parker, Washington, Ted McMillan could take off in the second. Like, I to me, this is very easy. Just keep Chase Brown.
- [35:48]
B
Oh, yeah. Especially because Chase, we just wax poetic about the Bengals. I mean, Chase Brown is part of that. Even though he's a running back and not one of the receivers. He benefits from the schedule too. So yeah, keep Chase Brown.
- [36:01]
A
We got multiple questions Erickson, about Bijan Robinson. One of them was just, should I trade Bijan? And if so, who would you look to acquire? A second question was along those same lines, just kind of asking about Bijan's general trade value. This is somebody that I talked a little bit about with TARA on our five moves to make before week 11 short form yesterday, which is on YouTube and I think also on audio. So Bijan is on the mind of folks with three straight, you know, poor performances relative to what he was earlier in the year and also relative to your expectations when drafting him are nobody is panicking on Bijan Robinson, but are you open to trading him and kind of gauging his trade value and maybe moving on for the right deal?
- [36:42]
B
I would not be trading him away. I would be looking to trade for him. That's the way I see it. He was drafted as the number one overall player in a lot of leagues for I still think a lot of the right reasons. Now I just think that this is probably more of a prime time to try to buy low on him. And it's by low is probably not the right word. I think it just means he's able to be acquired now because there is a sense of doubt in the back of people's minds that all I can think about is Algier scoring all these red zone rushing touchdowns in a prime times or okay, on an island spot playing in that international game. So I still think that Bijan is one of the best players in the NFL. You know, it was only a couple weeks ago that he was leading all players in terms of yards per game from scrimmage. He's still highly involved as a receiver out of the backfield. The Falcons have kind of just been up and down. Quarterback injury. Michael Pennock missed the game. I want to buy Bishop Robinson because I know that he can go on a stretch for four games and score more points than anybody else in fantasy football. And if I have that on in my lineup, that's something I would cherish going into the fantasy postseason. So I would be looking to by.
- [37:47]
A
Bijan, other than Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Jameer Gibbs, I would give up any running back in football for Bijan Robinson without hesitation. I would add to. I would add to Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Devon hn, even. Like, that's how strongly I feel about Bijan Robinson. So, like, I'm very much with you. There are very few pieces on a fantasy team that I would say, no, I'm not moving them for Bijan. It's basically those three running backs. And then like, jsn, like, honestly, even that, like, Puka gets banged up a lot. Like, you know, Jamar Chase is technically playing with the backup quarterback. Like, there's really not many names. I wouldn't move for Bijan. I do. So I, I think because, like, the question is about Bijan's trade value. I don't know if maybe that person was actually asking from the reverse of trying to trade for him. So maybe it is worth hitting on that. But, like, I think the trade value is like you. You said he is probably not untouchable right now, but it is still going to cost a lot. So if you really are inclined to trade him away, I think that's a mistake. But I would ask for a lot. I would treat him like a. Like, if we were drafting today, he'd be a top three pick. That would be the type of value I would be trying to get back for him. Otherwise, just hold him. Like, I wouldn't look to move him. Just like, oh, well, I can still get something. That's not the case for Bijan.
- [39:11]
B
And so you think. So you think McCaffrey finishes ahead of Bijan rest of season?
- [39:15]
A
I don't know, but I, I think he's good enough that, like, I, I would just rather hold on. I. I think the top four are really clear in my opinion. JT1 and I think the other three, like, right now, the order on the consensus rankings is Bijan McCaffrey, Gibbs. Like, I think you could quibble with that order of any of those three. And I, I, like if I just had one, I would, I wouldn't be trading within there. I would just be happy with the one I have. And then it's after that that I feel like there's a bit of a step down. Do you, do you disagree? Do you think there's a step down?
- [39:44]
B
I don't think it's step down necessarily. I just, I just always in the back of my mind with McCaffrey, right. Which is sure all the volume that he's saying and the fact that they have been using Brian Robinson a little bit more the last couple weeks. So I know that everyone's getting annoyed at Tyler Algier, but Brian Robinson's kind of been in red zone. He scores two rushing touchdowns the last two weeks. Now the receiving with McCaffrey's just been like super ridiculous. But his rushing, his efficiency is not that great this year. It just really hasn't been. And that's not all his fault. 49ers offense hasn't been nearly as good at opening a polls. But I mean, no one will be shocked if it's like, oh well, Bijan just runs circles around CMC rest of the season, especially if CMC gets banged.
- [40:19]
A
Well, you know, here, here's the other case. CMC has a buy still and Bijan doesn't. That's late in the season. Could be the difference maker if you see guys as really equal. So maybe I take it back. Maybe I would trade McCaffrey for B shot, but I mean, McCaffrey's just been so when he's on the field in general. So again, those four I just think are in their own tier. Well, Jonathan Taylor's in his own tier and then the other three are in their own tier.
- [40:43]
B
He scores three touchdowns every single week.
- [40:46]
A
Last question here. This is more of a general one. How do you get a league to make trades? This is something that I feel like has been talked about more and more on Twitter. I know Brian Drake, who contributes for us on Fantasy Pros, had a video and also an article about this recently. I know there was a really interesting article about this from Scott White, cbs for fantasy baseball. And it was either this past summer or the summer before that. I remember reading like it's not just a football thing, it's fantasy sports in general. Trading has become a real nightmare. It's really hard because so many people and you and I have talked about this. I think on this show this year, Erickson, so many people are trying to win the trade they want. The goal of trading for a lot of people in fantasy is I want to share this trade on social and have people say, wow, fleece, you did such a great job. I want the group chat to blow up and go, I can't believe you got all that value for this guy. It's about winning the trade rather than making your team better. And I just think that there are so many situations I've come across over the years where a trade would clearly improve a team. Somebody has eight amazing wide receivers and one good running back and they're like, well, I can't trade my wide receiver 7 for your RB2 because my wide receivers ranked higher. I'm like, well, that's because you overloaded that position on your team. You can't start 8 guy. Like, there's so, so many who are worried about winning the trade rather than just making your team better. It drives me nuts. What is your solution, Ericsson? How do you get a league to make trades?
- [42:25]
B
Well, I do think that trade central on fantasy pros helps a lot because it suggests trades that are win wins that benefit both sides, and those are some of the most highly recommended trades that it comes up with. So that's a good starting point. I always think that looking for how to improve someone else's roster first. So thinking for others before yourself type of mindset is also helpful in getting trades done, especially at the onesie positions where, you know, some people will argue and debate about, well, no, my running backs aren't that bad or my wide receivers aren't that bad. But when you look at someone's roster and you see that they have Justin Fields, the QB one, like everyone knows they need help at quarterback, like they're not, they're not getting that by or especially if they're starting like Zachary, it's a tight end, right? So it's like very, very clear what their need is. And that's also something in trade central. It identifies what teams need the most and whether some managers disagree with that or not. Especially at the onesie positions. It's really, really easy to tell when somebody needs something. So those are some of the things I've thought about. Something that I've kind of mulled over my mind that would force more trades out of necessity would be to limit your waiver wire transactions so you don't actually have access to the waiver wire nearly as much. This wouldn't be a restriction on necessary like maybe the amount of waiver Wire trend. Or maybe that would be the case here. But if you limit the waiver wire because people can always pick up players, oh, I need to pick a receiver, I need to pick up a running back. I need to fill my roster spot. Well, if you limit that to, well, you can only make three transactions a week, then trading becomes even more integral because, oh, well, I have to make a trade to fill out my roster or else I can't. Now, on the other side of the coin, I don't like limiting anyone in fantasy. I always like having as many options as possible. So again, I don't think this is the perfect solution, but it could be a way to encourage trading because I can't use the waiver wire as much, or as another factor making your benches deeper where the waiver wire has nothing on it. So the waiver wire is barren. How do you improve your roster? You have to make trades. So those are a couple of things that Eyes have at least kind of thought about when it comes to trades. I wish there was like a way to reward managers after they make trades. So kind of like further incentivizing them. Maybe you get like waiver wire budget or waiver wire bucks. If you make a successful trade. And it can't be one of these where you make the trade in the next week, you trade the players back. So you can't do that. So maybe those are a couple of things that could encourage trading. Maybe even like, you get points. I don't know, like something like that. Like where you're really like, encouraged to, hey, you get two extra points if you make a trade this week. Like, people would be like, because what does that do? Like, that helps their team, that helps their starting lineup because, oh, I get two extra points. Even though if they just made the trade in the first place, they'd probably get two extra points anyway.
- [45:19]
A
I, I haven't found a great solution for redraft leagues. I will say, like, I get so many more trades done in dynasty because people, you could always make the case of, like, you're looking for the future and you're never, you know, the season's never a wash, you're getting a higher draft pick, you're doing something like it still matters throughout the year. And so I always find trades happen more in my dynasty leagues. Now the problem with that is that I run into just self evaluation of your team. Like, like so many people in leagues that I'm with, like, are really bad at looking in the mirror and saying, like, I'm not a contender. This year and it would make sense for me to trade Derek Henry because he's older and a running back, but they're just unwilling to because they can't admit to themselves that they're not a contender. I run into that a lot in Dynasty, but at least people are willing to talk trades in Dynasty more, more than a reject. So really what I do is just yell about it. I'm like, God, like, stop trying to win the trade. Just make your team better. And you know that's the best you can hope for here. We'll wrap up this part one on that, part two coming up on YouTube and audio don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel. You can come and ask your specific Fantasy Trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fantasyprose subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros here with one last reminder to keep you off the naughty list this holiday season. Stuff your stockings, your pantry, your gift closet, anywhere you can with Duracell batteries because there's nothing worse than opening a gift on Christmas morning and realizing you don't have batteries for it. Duracell batteries are the only battery brand with power boost ingredients, which are a unique blend of nickel and lithium designed for long lasting power. So stock up on your double A's and your AAA's so you'll be a okay for the holidays. Choose the only battery brand with power boost ingredients. Choose Duracell.
- [47:53]
C
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- [48:27]
A
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