Week 12 Buy Low + Sell High Wide Receiver Targets (Ep. 1852)

Summary

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FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Week 12 Buy Low + Sell High Wide Receiver Targets (Ep. 1852)
Date: November 19, 2025
Hosts: Seth Wilcox, Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This week's episode delivers hard-hitting fantasy football trade advice focused on wide receiver buy low and sell high targets heading into Week 12—the last major trade window of the season. Seth Wilcox and Andrew Erickson unpack which WRs can help you dominate the stretch run, touch on actionable QB and TE moves, and answer critical mailbag questions from listeners eyeing a championship push.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Thanksgiving Banter and Show Rundown

• The show kicks off with lighthearted Thanksgiving food "buy/sell" takes, then pivots into the trade deadline-centric agenda.
  • [01:12] Andrew: Buys "all the meat" and potatoes, avoids "rabbit food" like salad.
  • [02:01] Seth: Champions salads and stuffing, brings buffalo chicken dip to the family spread.
  • [03:00] Both agree on passing up dry turkey and cranberry sauce.

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Wide Receiver Buy Low Targets

1. Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings)

• Rationale: Elite opportunity and target share despite lackluster fantasy output in recent weeks.
  • Last week: 9 targets (28% share); struggles tied to rookie QB JJ McCarthy, but schedule is about to turn.
  • [06:54] Upcoming fantasy playoff schedule: Commanders, Cowboys, Giants, Lions—"the number one schedule for WRs during Weeks 14-17." (Andrew)
  • [07:02] "Chasing the schedule. I'm chasing positive regression. He's WR7 in expected points per game, but WR19 in actual points per game. Is Justin Jefferson really going to finish the season outside the top 15 wide receivers when he's never finished lower than WR6?" —Andrew Erickson
  • [08:56] Seth echoes, citing strong advanced stats but abysmal efficiency due to QB changes; now is the lowest Jefferson’s value is likely to be.
  • Conclusion: Buy low due to upcoming schedule, positive regression, and elite role.

2. DK Metcalf (Pittsburgh Steelers)

• Rationale: Down weeks coincide with QB struggles/injury and overall Steelers offensive woes, but schedule turns up.
  • [10:42] "Metcalf has a lot of favorable matchups down the stretch and he's just kind of run bad the last couple of weeks." —Andrew
  • Schedule: Steelers WRs have the best strength of schedule per FantasyPros tool.
  • [13:00] "Basically, if you'd bought low on every single WR attached to a backup QB this year, you'd be printing money." —Andrew
  • [14:59] Seth highlights that replacement QB Mason Rudolph made George Pickens a "league winner" in 2023 and should be serviceable for DK.
  • Injury note: Aaron Rodgers finger issue has coincided with Metcalf’s slump.
  • [16:24] “You can probably get [Metcalf] at a very, very good cost.”
  • Conclusion: Buy low after three bad weeks; replacement QB unlikely to decimate his value; schedule is a major plus.

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Wide Receiver Sell High Targets

1. A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)

• Rationale: Production trending down, efficiency waning, and team situation is declining after Lane Johnson injury.
  • [19:18] "The inefficiencies from him this year have been really eye-opening...he's averaging a career low in yards per route run." —Andrew
  • [20:21] "It's less matchup dependent with A.J. Brown and more about what are the Eagles deciding to do on offense this week?" —Andrew
  • [20:56] Lane Johnson injury: When Johnson is out, Eagles’ passing game efficiency drops (7.8 y/a vs. 6.7 y/a; highest pressure rate allowed).
  • [21:49] Seth: Only two WR1 finishes, projected career-low outputs; "This is not the A.J. Brown we drafted."
  • [22:54] “It's not meant to bury A.J. Brown…but for 2025, it is not AJB WR1 season.” —Andrew
  • Conclusion: Field offers for AJB—trade on name value while you can.

2. Deebo Samuel (Washington Commanders)

• Rationale: Recent TDs masking concerning drop in usage and efficiency, bad schedule, WR competition soon returning from injury.
  • [24:12] "He's been outside the top 45 fantasy WRs in three of his last five games…yards after catch has plummeted from 9.0 to 5.6." —Andrew
  • [25:55] "We've seen him fall off in the second half of seasons every single year."
  • Terrible rest-of-season schedule for Washington WRs; uncertainty at QB.
  • [26:07] Seth: Non-TD games = "the type of games…that could kill you in the playoffs."
  • Conclusion: Sell high now before playoff letdowns.

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QB and TE Targets

Buy: Lamar Jackson

• Rationale: Down weeks create a rare buying opportunity for an elite upside QB ahead of a dream schedule.
  • [27:09] "This is the best buy that you can make. Lamar Jackson—he's never been cheaper."
  • Schedule: Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Packers, Patriots, more; “5 of his last 6 matchups are plus matchups.” —Seth [28:30]
  • Acknowledges low rushing rate and passing volume, but upside is "QB1 overall" rest of season.
  • [31:14] “When that guy with that profile is attainable, you got to shoot for it.” —Andrew

Sell: Caleb Williams

• [31:21] "A couple weeks ago looked like fantasy QB1… but the rest of season schedule for the Bears is rough: Steelers, @Eagles, @Packers, Browns, Packers, @49ers."
  • Weather and grind of the schedule are additional concerns.
  • Suggests flipping Williams for safer, more consistent QB options (e.g., Baker Mayfield).
  • [33:05] Seth: "I just don't know if I want to be invested in a Chicago Bears quarterback even though they've been awesome this season."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [07:02] "Is Justin Jefferson really going to finish the season outside the top 15 wide receivers when he's never finished lower than WR6 in any year that he's played in full?” —Andrew Erickson
• [13:00] “If you'd bought low on every single WR attached to a QB that got hurt, you'd be printing money.” —Andrew Erickson
• [19:18] “The inefficiencies from him [A.J. Brown] this year have been really eye-opening…he's averaging a career low in yards per route run.” —Andrew
• [31:14] “When that guy with that profile is attainable, you got to shoot for it." —Andrew Erickson (on Lamar Jackson)
• [22:54] "For 2025, it is not AJB WR1 season. Not this year.” —Andrew Erickson

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Mailbag Segment [34:09]

• Should I trade Puka Nacua and Romeo Doubs for Justin Jefferson and Javonte Williams?

  • [34:23] Andrew: "Unless I'm really hurting for RB, I'd probably say no. But it's fair if you need RB help."
  • Seth agrees: Puka is the best player in the deal.

• Would you trade Jalen Waddle for Woody Marks + Stefon Diggs (need wins now)?

  • [35:42] Andrew: Yes, if you need immediate production; Diggs is surging and Marks is suitable RB filler, though not a league-winner.
  • Seth agrees, calls Diggs and Marks "fun" but not elite.

• Dynasty: Trade a late 2026 2nd for Travis Kelce for title shot?

  • [37:35] Andrew: Yes, go for it if you're all-in, but consider Kyle Pitts for more long-term upside.
  • Seth highlights Chiefs' competitive schedule means Kelce remains heavily involved.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Thanksgiving banter & show format rundown | 01:12–04:04 | | Justin Jefferson Buy-Low Discussion | 06:05–10:12 | | DK Metcalf Buy-Low Discussion | 10:33–16:24 | | A.J. Brown Sell-High Discussion | 19:10–23:20 | | Deebo Samuel Sell-High Discussion | 24:12–27:09 | | Buy: Lamar Jackson | 27:09–31:14 | | Sell: Caleb Williams | 31:21–33:54 | | Listener Mailbag | 34:09–39:14 |

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Final Thoughts and Tone

• The hosts maintain their classic blend of sharp analysis, actionable data, and light, friendly banter.
• They don't hesitate to make bold recommendations (move on from big names, snap up struggling superstars), always with a clear rationale and useful evidence.
• The episode closes with encouragement to check out the show’s companion RB trade targets episode and to join the weekly trade chat on YouTube.

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For anyone eyeing fantasy football playoff glory, these buy low and sell high moves—backed up by stats, schedule, and team trends—are exactly the portfolio shake-ups needed in the final trade window.

Transcript

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[Seth Wilcox]

All right. And welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. It's the week 12 and final edition of the trade show for the season. Wide receivers to buy and sell will be the focus for this particular episode. And we'll also chat about some quarterbacks and tight ends that we've got in our sights. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, and I'm joined by a man whose roots remain so great in the state of Massachusetts, they run so deep that I think some actually think he's a direct descendant of the OG Pilgrims. Yes, he's Andrew Erickson. Erickson, how are you? And with no show next week, I gotta ask, what are your buys and sells of Thanksgiving dishes?

[Andrew Erickson]

I knew that you were gonna tie in some type of Thanksgiving question. You dropped the pilgrim type of thing there going on, which I haven't heard that word since last Thanksgiving. So for me, my buys are definitely the meat. Meat potatoes. That's. That's my kind of. Okay, that's what I gravitate towards. Steak, potatoes type of guy. So I like the turkey, I like the mashed potatoes. I like sweet potatoes as well. I think that it's a good complement to the, the kind of savoriness of the mashed potatoes. You get the sweetness of the sweet potatoes. And I just try to avoid most vegetables because they're just filler. They're just kind of just filler for me. So I don't, I don't eat salads or things like that. It's rabbit. It's rabbit food, basically. And it just fills me up when I could be putting better things in my stomach that I actually want to eat.

[Seth Wilcox]

Well, that is a bummer to hear because one of my buys is salads. My.

[Andrew Erickson]

Oh, no. Seth.

[Seth Wilcox]

My cousin makes two huge bowls of salad every year and I sit at, like, the kids table, young adults table, and I am the only one every single year who eats the salad. And I always get made fun of for it. But, cousin Keith, I appreciate your salad. It's always well done. Also stuffing. Stuffing is my favorite part of the meal by far. I also, I don't know if your family does this, but, like, I am in charge of the buffalo chicken dip at our Thanksgiving. Like, I bring like all the appetizers, right. We got different dips going. We got a cheese tray, veggie tray, that type of stuff. Are you buying on the apps or is it too filling for you as well with the salad? Just can't do it on your little Tommy.

[Andrew Erickson]

No, I mean, that's why I don't have the salad, so I can make more room for the apps. And a pro tip on the buff chick. The buff chick dip. Have you ever tried to put it into wontons and then put it in an air fryer? Yeah, that'll blow your mind.

[Seth Wilcox]

No, but that sounds like something right up my alley, so very, very good.

[Andrew Erickson]

I'll send you the recipe.

[Seth Wilcox]

Okay.

[Andrew Erickson]

All right.

[Seth Wilcox]

I appreciate that. Sells for me. Dry turkey. Like, you can miss me on dry turkey. I need like a moist, good turkey. I'm actually even like a ham guy over turkey, to be honest with you. I won't tell my mother in law that, but that's kind of how I feel. Also, like, I don't know, with you being an OG Pilgrim descendant, maybe you do like cranberry sauce. I don't. I have no interest in it at all. Yeah.

[Andrew Erickson]

I don't understand the hype.

[Seth Wilcox]

I. I don't.

[Andrew Erickson]

I don't mind this. Okay. Thank you. I just.

[Seth Wilcox]

Thank you.

[Andrew Erickson]

I don't. I don't ever find it or put it on my plate.

[Seth Wilcox]

It's gross looking. Yeah. Around here I've seen like different things. Like, people will do like a. A Thanksgiving hoagie at our local hoagie shop. And I'm like, it has cranberries. 1. I don't really want turkey and stuffing and everything like that. Like on a hoey. I'm okay with that. And the cranberry sauce just ruins it all for me.

[Andrew Erickson]

So.

[Seth Wilcox]

No, thank you.

[Andrew Erickson]

It's always funny when you see, like, these sub shops, like, Subway will have their Thanksgiving sub and like, nah, dude, I don't want to eat my Thanksgiving dinner in a sub. I just really don't.

[Seth Wilcox]

And I'm the biggest sub guy around, man. I could eat hoagies every single day of my life. But just give me a meatball.

[Andrew Erickson]

Give me a meatball sub. Okay.

[Seth Wilcox]

Really? Okay. Okay. I can do meatball sub every once in a while on a Saturday with some, some college football. That's usually a, A go to for me but Erickson, Enough on the Thanksgiving talk. We do have an absolutely loaded show for everyone. The program looks like this. Erickson's top wide receiver buys and sells, plus his favorite quarterbacks to move or acquire. We'll then round out the show with the trip to the post office right ahead of the holiday season to answer any listener questions we have in the FP Meal mailbag. And before we jump in, shout to everyone who is a part of our Fantasy Pros family right here on the FP YouTube channel or the audio feed. We are very thankful for all of you making time for us during your busy holiday schedules. Plus make sure you guys are supporting us. The easiest way to do it is give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. Make sure you subscribe to the channel. If you're new. We're trying to get to 300,000 subs by the end of the season. We can do that with your help. Also, if you want a chance to win one of the most unique pieces of NFL Fan gear out there, the the large NFL PA Wall Smack courtesy of our friends over at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, this is your shot. Their oversized, officially licensed NFL PA Wall Smack are bold statement pieces that are perfect for your fan cave office or even living room wall. Unless you have a fiance like maybe Mrs. Erickson or Katie, and they don't want that type of decor. But it's not just decor, it's a way to rep your favorite players and in style. To enter, all you need to do is subscribe to the Fancy Pros YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below and that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the program. So make sure you turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and claim this epic prize. We have this prize also out there at Draft Night Out. That's a draft party I do at the Fans Football Expo every year. This is one of the hottest tickets every year in the raffle that we're doing. So really appreciate Trophy Smack continuing to help us out on the giveaway front. And Erickson, let's jump right into the wide receivers you're trying to acquire right ahead of the deadline.

[Andrew Erickson]

Justin Jefferson, Wide Receiver for the Minnesota Vikings the Targets Opportunities Air Yards Red Zone Targets that hasn't been the problem with Justin Jefferson. Last week he had nine targets, 28% target share. He's had a high target share with JJ McCarthy. He's seen a lot of air yards, a lot of Red zone targets just has not turned into actual fantasy production that we'd all like to see from a guy that we were taking in the first round of our fantasy football drafts. And compared to when Wentz was the starter as well, his yards have not nearly been as high when you had the veteran quarterback in there. So the reason with Jefferson that I want to buy it stems from the schedule. Schedule is absolutely fantastic when you look at who the Minnesota Vikings are going to be playing now. The next two weeks are not great at Green Bay and at Seattle, but after that, weeks 14 through 17, you have Commanders, Cowboys, Giants and Lions.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yes.

[Andrew Erickson]

Plus matchups that, that is a elite stretch. I mean, you look at the strength of schedule tool, that's the number one schedule for wide receivers over that time.

[Seth Wilcox]

Oh, wow. Okay.

[Andrew Erickson]

So, yes, it's been frustrating with Jefferson, but you know, if McCarthy gets more starts, I feel like there's a path where he can continue to try to get better or at least to a point where he's a little bit more consistent in supporting his fantasy assets again. Just two weeks ago, Jalen Naylor was number two wide receiver on the week. So it's in him to fuel a guy to be a top five wide receiver on the week. And even though Jefferson has been disappointing, he's not like killing you. He's still seeing a decent amount of numbers in terms of PPR points. He's merely been more of like a low end fantasy wide receiver too, than obviously the locked and loaded top 10 guy that you drafted. But I'm chasing the schedule. I'm chasing positive regression again. He's wide receiver 7 in expected points per game, but wide receiver 19 and actual points per game. Is Justin Jefferson really going to finish the season outside the top 15 wide receivers when he's never finished lower than wide receiver 6 in any year that he's played in full? I, I think worst case scenario, he's probably going to be closer to that 10 to 12 range, which means we're going to see some positive games from him, especially in some of these plus matchups where I think McCarthy can be just a little bit better. And my last point that I want to make, last year, who was a wide receiver that struggled immensely with a young quarterback that was basically 10 terrible. Cortland Sutton, weeks one through seven, he was outside the top 40 wide receivers. It was bad. And what happened? The quarterback got more experience, started feeding his number one guy that more. And what did Courtland Sutton finish as a wide receiver one on the year, and he was a Very, very good asset to have. So I'm going to buy into the talent of Jefferson even if it doesn't come to fruition like the ceiling play. I think it might. I think there is still a floor here. So I don't think that you're just totally left holding the bag completely. And obviously you're not trading away Jefferson because you're not going to get anything worth him with all of the negative surrounding JJ McCarthy right now. So for those reasons he's a buy. I mean Jetta's, he's one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Buy low on the talent.

[Seth Wilcox]

This was one I definitely had to dig into a little bit when I saw this name because I've been a little disappointed with Justin Jefferson myself and I only roster him in a league or two out of the couple or you know, the 15 or so leagues I'm in. But he's been so consistent. Right? Only one game below double digit PPR points this season, but only two wide receiver one finishes. You pointed out though, it's really the improvement that could potentially come for JJ McCarthy down the stretch and the matchup that is really going to set up for him and the opportunity is there. You went through number one in deep targets, seventh and first rate target sixth in target share and targets fifth in air yard. So I just need to see the efficiency improve. Right? 1.5 fantasy points per target, 70th that's terrible efficiency. Also quarterback rating per target 64.98 second among wide receivers. So those are the things that we could see improve down the stretch and with that schedule and more time for J.J. mcCarthy to get his feet under him like folks we can't forget, this is a guy who did not get to take any practice reps at all his rookie season in the NFL because he was injured and then missed how many matchups this year as well. So I'm with you. I think Justin Jefferson is someone you need to go out and acquire. Will there ever be a point that he is lower in his entire career than this? I don't think there is.

[Andrew Erickson]

Nope. And I think when you're looking at it from that perspective, the process just says you got to buy and nothing else matters. Like when a guy as talented as Jefferson is cheap, he's got to buy. It doesn't matter what the other circumstantial factors are. And who knows, maybe he'll be cheaper after Seattle. But hey, the trade deadline's probably over by then so you got to buy now. Yeah.

[Seth Wilcox]

And Andrew, you also are Targeting a receiver and it's one that warms my heart being a proud member of the LRS fan base.

[Andrew Erickson]

DK Metcalf Wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers Here we go on the list and I was even thinking more about it and thinking is this guy I really want to put on on the list here because I've, I've had an up and down kind of season with Metcalf where early on in the year I was very much on the sell. DK Metcalf. There's no way he's going to be able to sustain this type of production. And I guess I was kind of right because we have kind of seen it tail off, especially over the last three games where Metcalf has been really disappointing. But going back to using the tools on fantasy pros, the number one strength of schedule tool that says for wide receivers is the Pittsburgh Steelers. So Metcalf has a lot of favorable matchups down the stretch and he's just kind of run bad the last couple of weeks. I mean even in this last game he had a 30 yard pass negated by an offensive pass interference call. He still had eight targets which was his second highest on the year. He had five catches which also tied for the highest for 49 yards, had a 26% target share, 69% of the air yards. And just given the fact that we have so many question marks about Aaron Rodgers, whether he's going to play this week, I don't think it's a long term injury for him. I think at most he would probably just miss this one game. But all these things are giving you an opportunity to buy low on a receiver that I think has been pretty solid for most of the season. Been more of a wide receiver two than a wide receiver one, but we've seen it hit some spike weeks with some of these big plays that he can generate either as downfield threat or after the catch. And it does go back a lot to the schedule as well. I, I, I just think it's really, really favorable for him, especially in the fantasy football playoffs. So for me, DK Metcalf again kind of like more of a process play coming off another bad game. Quarterbacks are hurt and basically if you had bought low on every single quarterback or every receiver attached to a quarterback that got hurt, you'd be printing money essentially. Like that's something that I need to really reconsider heading into next year where the minute that the starting quarterback goes down, you should buy that wide receiver because more often than not, at least the sample Size we had this year was these veterans coming in just end up being upgrades for their wide receivers. I want to dive more into it specifically because I don't think it's like that easy. But I think some of it stems from these backups come in, they play really loose, they don't care, they just like sling it. And that's why you see these guys produce for fantasy, whereas you get these starters. And even kind of the reverse with McCarthy, where McCarthy's probably playing a little bit more tight than Carson Wentz was. Wentz is out there like, dude, I'm just going to like chuck it to Jeffrey.

[Seth Wilcox]

Rip it and rip it.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah. So it makes it easy. Jacoby Brissette, Joe Flacco. So again, not a perfect science because we've seen some back and quarters obviously bring down everything like the Jake Brownings of the world. But again, I don't think Mason Rudolph is going to substantially tank DK Metcalf. He's a sir. He's a serviceable quarterback. So for those reasons, I think Metcalf is a prime buy low candidate.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yeah. Also Jameis Winston, right, drinking the doves now, doing a little Harlem shake in the end zone. You gotta love that. And I love your point, too. I don't think Mason Rudolph, Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer, as we like to call him out here in Western Pennsylvania, I don't think he's gonna tank DK at all. Because in the two of three games with George Pickens at the end of that 2023 season in Pittsburgh, GP was a certified league winner with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. One of those games, wide receiver, 235.5 points per game. I remember that day just like it was yesterday. I was out of Primordi Brothers. It was snowing outside, it was snowing in Pittsburgh. And he went off against the Bengals. And then also another one of those games the week right after that. Wide receiver, 9.20.1 fantasy points. While George Pickens certainly is not the exact same receiver as DK Metcalf, I mean, they're pretty similar, right? They're both alphas, especially in this Pittsburgh offense where there's really no one outside of them. My only concern at the beginning of this season was that maybe Arthur Smith, like somehow tanks this and I was at least bought into the point where I took DK Metcalf over 1250 receiving yards on the season. I don't think I'm going to hit that, honestly. And I think it's just like the target share, right? 20.1 target share, just 62 targets on the season, 31st among wide receivers. I guess that's just Arthur Smith football, but yeah, it's like that's disappointing. Right. Like I thought DK would have probably closer to 25, 27 target share, but still, I'm with you. I think Mason Rudolph for a couple weeks is a steady hand to get them rolling back in the right direction. Rogers comes back and it's a really good stretch. So I am with you here on buying DK Metcalf. Andrew.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I do want to note one thing else on Rogers as well. So this was actually something I stumbled upon when I was looking on X for, for some information about Rogers and just kind of like the injury. So this was from Jack Sperry on X and basically he kind of looked at Rogers. I don't know if you remember the report, Seth. Remember we caught that report that Rogers hurt his finger in like pregame warmups. Yes. Against the Colts.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yes.

[Andrew Erickson]

So that was three games ago. And that has also coincided with DK Metcalf's drop off of his last three games. Interesting. So maybe Rogers hasn't really been playing at 100% again. I mean, he's obviously not been good over the last three weeks, but maybe it is stemming from a. Another injury that he's been dealing with. So maybe the best thing for him is, hey, set him down for a week, let his finger get healthy, let his wrist get healthier or whatever. And maybe that's kind of what Metcalf needs. So to your point, you know, Mason Rudolph might be a boost for DK Metcalf and the opportunities have been there. I mean, Rogers missed him wide open down the field last week. And I do think that like you said, Rudolph will lean on the number one guy. It's not Calvin Austin, it's not Roman will. I mean, it's DK Metcalf. Like he's the alpha in this passing game and if he can just catch fire for a couple of games with some of these favorable matchups coming up the stretch, then I think that he's worth it because I really think you can get him cheap. That's like the big thing here too because it's been three bad weeks in a row. Aaron Rodgers, gross. Steelers offense, gross. So I think that he can probably had at a very, very good cost.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yeah, if you guys go back and watch the running back episode we did, I think a couple of those RBs you wanted to sell Ericsson, I think those would be great targets to maybe move for DK Metcalf. So yeah, I'm very excited about that and I think the injury to Rogers could be something because I actually identified him as a rest of season potential sleeper Rogers because I really liked how he was playing the first half the season and ever since that game he has not looked the same. So yeah, maybe a trip to the infirmary will be good for him and Rudolph the red nosed Reindeer can save Christmas once again in the Steel City before we keep it moving, a real quick reminder that you can use the Trade Analyzer at fantasy page pros.com myplaybook or on the Fantasy Pros app to instantly evaluate how any trade will affect your team for this week, the rest of the season, or even in Dynasty fantasy football leagues. Again, that's fantasypros.com myplaybook to use the Trade Analyzer or for free on the Fantasy Pros app.

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[Seth Wilcox]

All right, let's keep it moving here. Erickson Ah the good times, they can't last. Specifically out there in the city of.

[Andrew Erickson]

Brotherly Love selling AJ Brown. He was my cell a couple weeks ago before the Eagles went on their bye week.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yes.

[Andrew Erickson]

And so this was before he said to drop him on Twitch and all that stuff. But I still feel the same about A.J. brown even after he had a bit of a bounce back game here against the Detroit Lions. Because if this was the squeaky wheel game where we get double digit targets, he doesn't even surpass 50 receiving yards. Right. It's just kind of more inefficient route running or not route running, but the inefficiencies from him this year have been really eye opening. And I don't think that he has like declined severely as a player but just within confines of this specific offense. Like it's not the same A.J. brown experience. He's averaging a career low in yards per route run this season.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yep.

[Andrew Erickson]

Devontae Smith career high in yards per route run this season. I would rather have Devontae Smith than A.J. brown rest of season like straight up because Smith has been the more consistent player in this offense this year. Yes, the Eagles do have some favorable matchups rest of season, but AJ Brown is bombed in good matchups this year.

[Seth Wilcox]

Like they're also games Erickson that they might not have to throw a ton. Right. They could just lean on the run game. That's what I'm afraid of.

[Andrew Erickson]

That's the thing. It's less matchup dependent with AJ Brown and more about well what are the Eagles deciding to do on offense this week? Like that's really what stick. Because we know A.J. brown can beat any defense if they decide to throw him the ball enough. Right. So I just have concerns about the bottom falling out in certain matchups. So although AJ Brown can win you weeks, we've seen him lose you more weeks than win you more weeks this season. And that's what concerns me. You go on the fancy playoffs, you're starting AJ Brown and you could just be left holding the bag. So that really concerns me. Yeah. With the Eagles wide receiver rest of season. And the other thing is the Lane Johnson injury. Like this is huge.

[Seth Wilcox]

Good point.

[Andrew Erickson]

Lane Johnson is going to be out because we've seen this Eagles offense, specifically the passing game regress immensely when he misses time. So this is from Next gen stats. So this is from to the 2024 season. So I'll just read it. So the Eagles have struggled in the passing game without Lane Johnson since Jalen Hurts became his starting quarterback in 2021. The Eagles 7.8 yards per attempt with Lane on the field would rank second in the league during that span. So this is till up to 2024. However, their 6.7 mark without Lance would be ninth lowest in the league. The team's pressure rate jumps from 13 lowest in the league to the highest rate allowed without him in the lineup. This, it's just, it's just bad news all over the place for Philadelphia. We've seen them in two back to back games not play that well offensively. We know the offense is not operating at 100%. Offensive lines regressed. A.J. brown's not heat feeling it. I just, I just don't want out. I'm out. I'm outside, dude.

[Seth Wilcox]

That's all right. I will say I hope Fred Johnson, he, he's Lane Johnson's backup. I think he can be maybe suitable. But we've seen it with the Chargers, we've seen it with these other offenses that when they replace these star worth left and right tackles, it doesn't always hold up. Right. And, and you know, so I'm with you there and to your point of like hurting you more than he's helped you, he has two wide receiver, two finishes, two wide receiver, one finishes all their five games. He's outside the top 24 this season. So I mean he got the targets last week as you mentioned as well, but it just didn't come to fruition. And I think like, honestly like you have to zoom out sometimes in fantasy football. What is A.J. brown on pace to do? 67 receptions, a career low 816 yards and only five touchdowns. That's what we're on pace for. Like sometimes you just have to go back. Take it from a 500 foot level. This is not the AJ Brown we drafted. And I think someone based on at least maybe the targets last week would give you maybe 75 cents on the dollar, which I would take at this point.

[Andrew Erickson]

You could get Metcalf. I'm pretty sure you could get Deacon Metcalf with A.J. brown.

[Seth Wilcox]

I like his plus something.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah. And this isn't meant to bury A.J. brown because I think that he's still a super talented player. And look, Seth, he's going to be fantastic. Wearing the Patriots blue and red and white next year in 2026. Catching pass from Drake May. I'm gonna be all over buying A.J. brown low in 2026. But for 2025, I am. It is not AJB wide receiver one season. I'm sorry. Like it usually always is. AJB wide receiver one season. Not this year.

[Seth Wilcox]

I had a funny thought the other day. The Rams right now they control a top 10 pick because they have the Falcons pick and they also have their own pick. What if they move that late first rounder and they run out Puka Adams and ajb like something like that, I think. But I'd rather see him over on the NFC side rather than the afc. Even though I have so much Drake May and Dynasty that that would be great for me. I don't need another juggernaut Patriots team. I've already seen that for my entire life. So I don't need any more dynasties up from your your neck of the woods, Andrew. No thank you.

[Andrew Erickson]

Or the Rams decide to package all their picks and just get Joe Burrow out of Cincinnati.

[Seth Wilcox]

I'd be okay with that. I would be okay with that.

[Andrew Erickson]

Burrow and McVeigh. Dude, they would win so many Super Bowls.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yeah, that's for sure. Andrew, you also have another wide receiver you're selling this time coming in the nation's capital.

[Andrew Erickson]

Debo Samuel, another player that I have mentioned as a seller many times this year. He's coming off another game where scored a touchdown. But the body of work the last couple games has not been elite. So he's been outside the top 45 fantasy wide receivers in three of his last five games. That's despite averaging over six targets per game. Again, he had a 28 yard catch late in the game against the Miami Dolphins. If he doesn't have that catch, he would have finished under 50 yards for the fourth time in five weeks. So the ceiling performance have not been there for Debo Samuel and his yards after the catch has plummeted versus his career rate. He's average on his career nine yards after the catch per reception this year 5.6. That's more than three yards worse than his career average.

[Seth Wilcox]

Almost half.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I don't think that this is any groundbreaking analysis for me saying that Deebo Samuel's not the same guy that he once was. Even though he's not like significantly older of a player. Just he's dealt with a lot of injuries and he was even dealing with injuries this season. But we've seen him fall off in the second half of seasons every single year it seems like. So the fact that the Commanders are kind of facing what seems like a lost season, the fact that Jaden games, we don't know when he's going to come back, the fact that Terry McLaurin might come back and that's also going to influence the target chair for Debo Samuel. The Commanders also have the single worst schedule for wide receivers after the bye week. So really for me it's get whatever you can for Debo Samuel after a game where he was productive yet again, like, I just want to be rid of him on my roster. He's not going to help you win your fantasy championship. So I'd rather have like a high upside handcuff than Deebo Samuel because again, going back to players are going to hurt you more than help you. Unless you're playing in a really deep format where you have to start four or five like flexes or wide receivers. Sure Samuel's not going to help you in a start two wide receiver league because I don't feel like you're going to be, oh, I got a flex Debo this week. I don't feel that way with the way that this season has gone for him for the Commanders offense overall. So trying to sell high off a touchdown game.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yes, sell high off the TD game. Also, we have speculative reports that J.D. honey could be returning at quarterback here for Washington. So in case he doesn't like, I would rather not be invested and go down with the ship. Like that's kind of what you're doing here, right? Washington has been one of the worst teams this season. It doesn't feel like it's getting any better. And Debo Samuel, to your point, how much touchdowns are helping him? He is averaging 9.3 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues in contests where he's not finding the end zone. And that's like also bumped up by his 22.1 performance all the way back in week one. So like he's having the type of games when he doesn't get into pay dirt that could kill you in the playoffs. And I don't want to be a part of that if he isn't finding the end zone, which chances are he probably won't because it's just not a good team right now. Even if Jane Daniels comes back, I don't have super high hopes. But Andrew, that's going to do it for us on the wide receiver front. We're going to move to quarterbacks and tight ends where you're focusing primarily on two signal callers, one to buy and one to sell. Who are you looking to purchase this week?

[Andrew Erickson]

It's Lamar Jackson. This is the best buy that you can make. I think any move, any advice I given this year, this is the best really move, really. Lamar Jackson, because he's never been cheaper, hasn't been good the last couple weeks, how many points did he score against the Browns? I had to like, double take. I think he scored like five points.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yeah, he was under seven for sure.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I. I couldn't believe. I don't think I've ever seen Lamar Jackson scored that few fantasy points.

[Seth Wilcox]

Worst games of his career. Honestly, he looked terrible. But. But the wind and the weather was pretty bad up there as well.

[Andrew Erickson]

It's. It's totally over. Emphasized the weather in that game. The fact that, dude, the Browns. When the Browns played home, dude, no one scores points on them. They play like the 85 Bears when they play at home. And they've. They have limited Lamar Jackson before, so this is nothing new. They do it to the Bengals when the Bengals go to Cleveland. It's. It's the same thing. Don't take any. Okay. This is exactly what the offense is going to look like. No, AFC north games are way different than every other game. It just. It's just very, very bizarre. So I wanted to buy low off of a really bad game. The fact that he hasn't been elite since coming back from his injury, hasn't been running as much, but the scheduled rest of season for the Ravens is. Is salivating. It is so good. Every matchup you list off, you're just, oh, my God, this guy's going to score 35 points this week. It's. Can you read off the schedule? Set.

[Seth Wilcox]

I got it right here.

[Andrew Erickson]

I mean, it's poetic justice, man.

[Seth Wilcox]

5 of 6 of his last matchups are plus matchups. The jets, the Bengals, the Steelers, the Bengals again, your Patriots, which I don't love, and Green Bay. Those are the only two that are, like, not the best. But New England's still been a very solid match at 4. Opposing signal callers as well.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah. So I think that it's. Schedule's great. Lamar is one of these players that he can score 35 points for you in a week. He can win you your week. So when we're debating all week long, which running back do I start, which flex do I start? If LaMar Jackson scores 40 points for you, who cares who you starting your flex? It's not going to matter. Like, that's going to win you your week. So again, going back to the bigger picture here, it's usually one, two, or three guys every week that decide whether you win or lose your matchup. Everyone else kind of hits their median projection. Some guys go a little bit above, some guys go a little bit below. Lamar's a guy when he's firing, you know, he can go in a really high rate of scoring fantasy points and winning your week. So I want to buy Lamar Jackson because I think that the manager that has him right now is probably pretty frustrated. He's never going to turn around, but he's had bad matchups. I think the schedule is great for him and you can attain him. You can attain an elite quarterback with which you usually can't do this time of year. So buy Lamar Jackson.

[Seth Wilcox]

This is usually the time of year that I am kind of almost looking to offload quarterbacks and because usually, like, I just need. I need a flex play. I need an RB2. I need something. And I've taken this approach a couple years in a row in a few of my bigger leagues. However, Lamar's schedule is so good that it makes me want to go buy him. The only caveat and the question I have for you is, are you concerned at all? Ravens are 31st in the league in pass plays per game. Also, Lamar right now on pace. You know, part of this is because he's been injured, but also he's been injured in the past. He's on pace for A career low 78 carries, 452 rushing yards. Does that worry you or do you think maybe, hey, that's just kind of been part of the script. They're not running him as much this year. He's been banged up and maybe we start to see those legs work a little bit more with that glorious matchups on the slate coming up.

[Andrew Erickson]

It definitely worries you, but it also worries the manager that has him. So, sure, yeah, you're basically just trying to make a bet that, no, he's going to turn it on, he's going to turn around, he's going to start running more. Because the one game that he runs more, it's game over, right? Yeah. Like, you know, you have a guy who can score 30 points every single week the rest of the way. So, look, is Lamar a guaranteed lock to start running again and perform at a high level? No. Again, any guy coming off an injury. We don't have all the injury data, but sure. Going back to talking about upside, Lamar Jackson's upside is he could be the QB one. He could score more fantasy points than literally anyone else the rest of the season based on this schedule and based on his skill set. And when that guy with that profile is attainable, you got to shoot for it.

[Seth Wilcox]

Okay. All right. And Andrew, you have one more quarterback you'd like to target this time, though, as a sell.

[Andrew Erickson]

Caleb Williams talked about this in the Running back episode about the Bears tough schedule, rest of season. I think there's a trickle down effect to that at the quarterback position as well. Caleb Williams a couple weeks ago looked like fantasy QB1 destroyed the giants, destroyed the Bengals, but yes, Giants, Bengals, most quarterbacks are going to destroy those teams the rest of season. Schedule for the Chicago Bears, Steelers at the Eagles, at the Packers, Browns, packers again, and then at the 49ers. I mean, like the only one that I'm feeling against Steelers is fine, but like two road matchups against Philly and Green Bay, not good. Browns not good. Green Bay again, again, on the road or playing it at home is a little bit better. So again, the playoffs isn't as bad, but on the way up to the fantasy football playoffs, I feel like you're not going to rely on Caleb Williams. So for me, if someone's going to overpay for what he's been doing the last couple of weeks again, so. So against the Vikings, he was also a sell for me last week too. But I'm just concerned about a lot of these Bears in general, just given that their schedule is much tougher. They've won a lot of games this season and I mean, they're in first place in the division, which is kind of bonkers to think about. But they haven't played Green Bay yet. So that concerns me about. Okay, does Caleb progress a little bit here? Again, he has that rushing cheat code, so he can kind of. He might be able to salvage his way. But again, that's why I want to see if I can get someone to overpay for someone that wants to buy into the rushing. For example, a quarterback that I would try to flip for Caleb, based on the rest of the season schedule would actually be Baker Mayfield, because I think you can probably make that deal kind of happen. Baker's going to get some of his guys back. Potentially his schedule is much better rest of season. And we saw Baker, even though they lost last week, Baker, what he was doing, he was running again. That's okay.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yeah, I love the rushing floor that Caleb Williams has added this season and even late last year. And I think you can sell on that. I think you sell on the premise. Hey, look, the Bears, they're leading the NFC north right now. Fives are high out there in the Windy City. My biggest concern though, with Caleb Williams is one we even really touched on. It's the weather, man. The weather up there in Chicago, like Cleveland, it gets brutal. And the couple road games he has, you pointed out, Philadelphia, I don't like that defense. It's going to also probably get pretty cold and nasty out there in Philadelphia and then Green Bay, like you're going to Lambeau. That is also really bad weather this time of year. So I just don't know if I want to be invested in a Chicago Bears quarterback even though they've been awesome this season. But just with the weather and the matchups coming up, I'm out. I'm out with you as well. So I really like that call. Andrew.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I mean if you can just hold on your bench till week 17 at 49ers like that, that, I mean that might be all that matters. But again, in one quarterback leagues, you're probably not going to. He could get dropped. If he puts up a couple of sneakers back to back, you scoop them up, save him for week 17. You're golden.

[Seth Wilcox]

Let's get out of here. On the mailbag Andrew Erickson and the first one comes From Warion on YouTube. Should I trade Puka Nukua and Romeo Dobbs for Justin Jefferson and Javante Williams in a PPR league? What do you think, man?

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, Puka is definitely the best part of the deal here. So I don't usually like parting ways with that particular player. So that's kind of like my first read on this. So unless I'm really hurting for running back production, I would probably say no to this deal. If it's hey, I'm I got backup running backs, I don't have an RB one, then yeah, yeah, I think it's worth it. Again, we talked about Jefferson. We like him as a buy low. Still obviously want Puka because he could be the wide receiver one rest of season and Javante's no slouch. He's a fantasy RB one. So yeah, again if you really need running back help, I think this is a fair trade.

[Seth Wilcox]

It is fair. I agree with you. I do think you're selling the best player in the trade. Right. You're selling a top five guy rest of season for a player in Justin Jefferson that you would probably like. If we're redrafting today, would Justin Jefferson and Javante still be like second round picks? Probably. Is that where you would probably take those guys?

[Andrew Erickson]

So yeah, they'd probably be in the second round. Yeah.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yeah. So it's just kind of league dependent here for you war in. But yeah, I probably would prefer not to do this trade. But if I need to, there are, you know, there are a lot of teams that I'm struggling to fill a lineup every week that I might need to do this. Here's another one of these one for two types of trades. This is coming from MJJ. MHJ. Marvin Harrison Jr. For MVP on Twitter. That did not age well. It's a screen name, I'll tell you that much right now. Would you be trading Jalen Waddle for Woody Marks and Stefan Diggs Erickson if.

[Andrew Erickson]

You need wins now? Yes, because Waddle's on his bye week right now. He's not going to help you now. Diggs still has to have his bye week. Patriots have a late bye week. So just keep that in mind. But look, you need running back. Hell, I think Marks is fine. I. I don't know if he's going to be a league winner. Like maybe we thought he could potentially be. I just think. I don't know if there can be a league winner from the Texans backfield with how bad his office of line is. So. But he's fine as a running back fill in. And Diggs, man, that dude looked fantastic on Thursday night cooking the jets and he was coming off a career game in terms of for season highs and snaps routes run. He. He totally took, he totally took over as like clear cut Alpha. Stefan Diggs is here and Drake Maze's quarterback. So you're never going to get me to say oh like got to get rid of Diggs. So I think that this is a good move to make.

[Seth Wilcox]

Okay. Yeah, I, I'm there with you as well. Woody Marsh has been, you know, kind of fun. Kind of fun. Right. You know I thought he would be a little bit better last week. I apologize to anyone over on the twitch side of things. I told to start him over some better off dude.

[Andrew Erickson]

He got the work man. He just. Yeah, he just didn't deliver.

[Seth Wilcox]

Yeah, I mean most of the Texans didn't outside Nico pretty much last week. So. Last one before we get out of here. Erickson Dynasty. Question from Sunday Surefire on Twitter. My team is a serious contender looking to win its third straight title. Congratulations. The only weak spot is tight end. Would you trade what is likely to be a late 2026 second round pick for Travis Kelce Erickson, it has been a really nice stretch here from Travis Kelsey Fitz pointed out last week and it's only grown that since week five. Travis Kelce currently are tight end to week five through 11 and even on the season, man he's a top five guy in points per game as well averaging just under 14 points per game. So would you move a late second rounder for one last ride with Travis Kelce, potentially.

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, I think that that's fine. He's attached to Mahomes. I don't know if the production will stay that high just because we've seen the splits with Rice and Kelsey playing in the lineup together. And even. Even this last game, right. Rice is seeing all the targets in the first half. Kelsey nowhere to be found. But the second half, Kelsey gets all the targets. Rice is kind of. Kind of a ghost, so those guys eat into each other. But right now it's really the Rice and Kelsey show. Like, Worthy hasn't really taken on a big role in the Chiefs offense and he always has touchdown upside. So for a late 20, 26 second to go all in, especially if you're hurting a tight end, it's like, what's the. What's the alternative, right? Like, which tight end are you going to trade for? Like, are you going to go for Mark Andrews? It's the same exact situation where he's touched down or bust. I think probably Kelsey has a higher floor than Mark does.

[Seth Wilcox]

Absolutely.

[Andrew Erickson]

I guess, like, if you wanted to try to think a little bit more long term, Kyle Pitts is kind of an interesting target as well because London is out. Yeah, I, again, if you could do a late 20, 26 second round pick for Kyle Pitts, I would probably rather do that in the dynasty because then you actually. Sure, you get him after this year too. Kelsey's probably done. But yeah, if you're trying to win now, Kelsey's an upgrade. Pull the trigger.

[Seth Wilcox]

Well, and I think what's interesting is the Chiefs, I feel like they need him now. Like, before, he was almost kind of like just a luxury, especially the last few seasons. But now they're sitting outside the AFC playoff picture.

[Andrew Erickson]

They gotta start winning games, man.

[Seth Wilcox]

And look at the schedule. Indianapolis, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee, Denver to end the fantasy football season. Like, those aren't. I mean, Tennessee give him a win there, but like, outside of that, they're gonna have to fight for all those other wins, right?

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah. So he'll stay involved. Yeah.

[Seth Wilcox]

Andrew Erickson, what a pleasure filling in for Worm this week with you on the trade show that is going to do it for us on this episode of the Fancy Pros Fancy football podcast. Be sure to check out part one for RB trade targets if you haven't already. And make sure that you're also checking out our weekly trade livestream for the YouTube audience where you can come and ask your specific fantasy trade questions. Joe Debro, our great pals over there, they're with you every Wednesday, 3pm Eastern Time. For those listening on the podcast feed, just go to YouTube.com fancypro subscribe and click the bell to be notified for all our weekly live streams. Also, as a reminder, this is our last trade show of the season. We'll be off for Thanksgiving, then Worm and Ericsson. Back with you every Tuesday with a predictions based show after the holiday. Until then, for Andrew Erickson, I'm Seth Wilcox. Take care y'.

[Andrew Erickson]

All.

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[Andrew Erickson]

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