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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 12 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, and Must-Starts (Ep. 1853)
00:42:27
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This is an I heart podcast.
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What's up, friends and welcome into fantasy pros. This is the fantasy Football Podcast Week 12 Wide Receiver Ranks. I'm Chris Welsh. We of course have Pat Fitzmaurice and the undertaker Andrew Erickson in the house as we are going to be breaking down all of our week 12. Week 12. By the way, we're already at week 12. How did we get here? We were just doing week two. We're at week 12 already. Fitzy playoffs are right around the corners. I'm already getting playoff questions. Some people starting up playoffs in like week 13, going early a little bit. But Fitzy, we're, we're here.
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D
It's crazy. Home stretch is almost here. I try to think of if us not being in the home stretch until Thanksgiving week at least, but fact is like next week, yeah, I've got leagues where I'm, I'm pretty much out of the playoffs already. I've got one league where I've clinched a buy already. We are, we are clipping along at a good pace.
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C
Erickson. Playoffs teams, playoff questions, team pushes. How are we feeling right now in these last couple of weeks?
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Feeling good. Feeling not as burnt out as I usually am at this point, but.
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C
All right.
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My schedule was kind of weird this year where I actually, I kind of came out of the gates full sprint and by week four I was really stressed and things were not great. But because I was able to overcome that, now I'm like smooth sailing. So I feel relatively pretty good. Most of my leagues I'm in contention, not number one, but not last. So again, still have a chance to make a playoff push and three weeks left of the regular season, three weeks for fantasy playoffs. So let's get rocking.
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C
We're going to get rocking and getting you to the home stretch on the playoffs. We are going to be going through our top 36 wide receivers. We're going to have the big board, have some discussions around them and kind of get you set and hopefully answering like a pre answering some questions that you guys might have have. As we always do. It is rank, accuracy, time. Let's go and take a look. Last week, week 11 ranks, we always shout out the top rankers. And coming in at number one in the most accurate week 11 ranker was Bart Wheeler of Hail to Fantasy Football. Congratulations, Bart. Coming in at number two is Dan Yanachko. Hopefully we said that correctly. Dan. We were, we, I was stressing before the show and I'm like, me and, me and me and Fitz, we're having a huddle about it. So hopefully we said it correctly. That's from football. And Kyle Cunningham Rhodes from the analysts finished in the top three. Those are your top three rankers. Most accurate with special shout outs to Mike freaking Mayer, who just had a baby, who we are literally kicking out of the company like slacks. Like no one wants him in there. Go do your thing. He finished sixth this week with a baby in hand and no sleep. He is literally a machine. Also a shout out to fitzy. You finished 27th this past week, so just, just outside the top 25. But you are, I believe, 22 on the season and I believe Mike Mayer is 16. So you guys are in a heated, heated race. Fitzy.
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D
Yeah. And I was relieved to not be like out of the top 100 last week because week 11 felt like the weirdest week of the season and just like nothing felt right. I probably gave out a lot of bad start sit advice last week. So if I, you know, if you asked me a question and I gave you the wrong answer, I apologize if I cost you your Week 11 matchup.
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C
The, the was it the Week 11 livestream we do on YouTube? We had a billion Sean Tucker questions and shout out to Tom Strachan who just continuously kept saying Sean Tucker and I'm like, what are we doing, brother? I'm like, I'm like, why? Why are we all in on Sean Tucker so much? Oh, because he's going to score like that. So if you had Sean Tucker ranked, you did pretty high, Erickson. I don't know if you had Sean Tucker ranked very high.
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Week I had him a couple spots ahead of ecr but not enough to save my pretty atrocious day. There's a reason why I wasn't highlighted here because it would take us too long to scroll down to where my rankings finished in week in week 12, so. Or excuse me, in week 11. So looking to bounce back. And one of my start sit decisions was I bench Sean Tucker. Had to watch him score all those touchdowns in the one o' clock window, hating myself. And then I realized I started Michael Wilson in the flex instead and technically it was the wrong decision, but it felt like the right decision.
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C
Michael Wilson was definitely speaking of the wide receiver front. Here was definitely one of my more correct things from last week, so I'm going to hold on to that. I had a top 50 finish but nothing super exciting about that and my rank world. But there you go. That's a shout out to the people. You guys can check out all the ranks of fantasypros.com rankings. You can see each weekly finish. There's also a tab for accuracy if you want to go check that out. But if you want to follow along with us and the changes throughout the week as every expert ends up submitting their ranks, FantasyBros.com rankings is the place before we start up with the wide receivers. It's giveaway time and if you want a chance to win this Wide receiver Justin Jefferson Signed Vikings Jersey for free Courtesy of our friends@pristineauction.com all you got to do is go to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form, then you can either download the Fantasy Bros. App, leave a review for the podcast, follow us on the Socials x Instagram and TikTok. They're all at Fantasy Pros and the more actions you complete, the more entries you'll receive. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the podcast, so if you're watching on YouTube, make sure to turn on notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up at claim your prize. And if you're on the podcast, go to YouTube.com fantasyprose get that Vikings jersey. Put it to use before he puts that thing in a shredder. He looks like he is ready to leave. I mean, shout out to Justin Jefferson for not absolutely losing his cool right now. But that's, I guess, another discussion. All right, let's get into the ranks. Let's get to the big board. Here's your top 12 for week 12, starting with Puka Nakua at number one. Going up against Tampa this week, Jackson Smith and Jigba at two, Amanra St. Brown, Rasheed Rice, CD Lamb, Nico Collins as your top six, Ameka Egbuca, Devonte Adams, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, T. Higgins and Chris Olave. So the top end, I'm really not sure. There's a ton of discussion. It's pretty easy decision making, but two players at the bottom do kind of jump out at you. One being T. Higgins coming in at wide receiver 11 this week. And as you can see on here, no Jamar Chase because Jamar Chase is Suspended for recreating that scene in Ace Ventura 2 pet detective with the. Do you remember the scene? Do you see it, Erickson?
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Yes, of course.
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Big Ace Ventura guy.
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Yeah.
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Allow me to whatever the whole scene was. So he, I guess he is appealing, but he's suspended. But what this does is this puts a big eye on T. Higgins as the theoretical number one. But you got Christian Gonzalez up against ECR 11. Fitzy, you're outside the top 12. But Erickson, you are making a stance. So top four, you've got T. Higgins at four. So you are not worried about Christian Gonzalez. Let's hear about T. Higgins.
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Yep. Not overly concerned about the matchup because how does Tu Higgins win? He wins 50, 50 balls. He wins against man coverage. Like if you're Christian Gonzalez, like saddle up, man. Like T. Higgins is going to be all over you in this particular matchup. And you look at the way that the Patriots have deployed Gonzalez this year, he hasn't really shadowed a ton of different wide receivers. Like the first time he really shouted anybody. Was Mieke Agbuka in that game against the Buccaneers. What was Egbuca's finish that week against the Patriots? Wide receiver four on the week. The week before against the Atlanta Falcons, Drake London, wide receiver 1 on the week he caught three touchdowns, none of which Christian Gonzalez was in coverage. So even though Gonzalez will cover T. Higgins on a decent amount of his routes, it's not going to be 100% of the routes. And in those opportunities, Joe Flacco's sending the ball to T. Higgins. And I also don't think that Flacco necessarily cares what cornerback is on T. Higgins. I think that he's just going to drop back and throw it. Whether he's covered, whether he's not. And T. Higgins we know as a contested catch guy, big body wide receiver, even if Gonzalez is blanking him with coverage, well, he can go up and still win those 50, 50 balls. So I'm chasing the upside here with T. Higgins. The last time we saw him in a game without Jamar Chase, five catches, 140 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. The Bengals are back at home, which I like a little bit more for their offense overall. I know I talked about last week just being a little bit lower on the offense just because they were playing on the road against the Steelers defense that had been a lot better. And I'm just not so afraid of the Patriots secondary in their entirety. Even with Christian Gonzalez locking up with T. Higgins for most of the game.
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You have him a four so you only have three wide receivers in front. Who are the only three receivers you like more than T. Higgins this week?
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Puka, JSN and Rice.
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That's a group, man. That's a group. Fitzy, you are not in the same camp. You do not have T. Higgins as a wide receiver one this week. You've got him at 14, just outside. Is this more of the concern of Christian Gonzalez clamping down on T. Higgins with no Jamar Chase?
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Yeah, I mean to rank him wide receiver 14. I'm not necessarily worried about him clamping down. Like, I'm not worried about taking T. Higgins out of my lineups and leagues where I have him and I do have him in quite a few leagues. I just. Erickson makes some really good points. Maybe I shouldn't be fading him relative to ecr. But I do wonder if maybe knowing that T. Higgins is going to be catching shadow coverage probably from Christian Gonzalez, like if the real beneficiary is going to be Andre Yosevash, who I've got ranked as a wide receiver three this week and think is startable. So yeah, sometimes these good receivers win matchups against good cornerbacks. Like I worry about it less for the good receivers than I do for the average receivers who are facing tough matchups from cornerbacks. So not worried about starting Higgins. I'm just not so high on him that I'm putting him as quite as high as Erickson is.
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He has given a four star rating, matchup rating, by the way. So that's something to consider when thinking like, is this a lockdown situation? Flacco loves T. Higgins, so I kind of like the aggression. I like being above consensus on Higgins this week as a big major target. The other guy that we're going to talk about is number 12 on this list. It's Chris Olave going up against Atlanta, who also has a four star matchup. The start and sit is graded out as an A. The Falcons are just depleted across the board. You got to imagine that offensively there could be some struggles on them giving up more, giving away offensive drives. That's going to give a little bit more of an opportunity for the Saints. But can Chris Olave thrive in that? Erickson, you've got him just outside as a wide receiver two number 13. But Fitz, you've got him higher than ECR. You've got him at 10. So you like Olave more than T. Higgins in this instance. Let's hear about your take on Olave this week.
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We're still trying to get a handle on what the quarterback change from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Schuck might mean for for Chris Olave, but so far so in Spencer Rattler's eight starts this season, Olave averaged 10.4 targets a game but only 6.1 yards per target. In Tyler Schuck's two starts, Alave has only drawn 12 targets, but he's averaging 13.4 yards per target. Obviously that's a real small sample size with Tyler Schuck, but Olave's average depth of target with the two quarterbacks is pretty telling. Olave had an average depth of target of 9.9 yards and Spencer Rattler starts so far in Schuck's starts 15.9 yards. So Olave is getting to stretch his legs a little bit here and you would think that with Rasheed Shahid now in Seattle, Olavier is going to see plenty of targets moving forward. And the Atlanta pass defense, it's been pretty good for much of the season, but it completely fell apart against the Panthers last week with Bryce Young going for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Not really any cornerback matchups I'm terrified by here, so I like Chris Olave a lot this week.
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Erickson, not saying you don't like him, you just one spot out of consensus. You don't have him labeled as a wide receiver 1. Do you think I know 13 is the labeling of a wide receiver? 2 Do you see him more as a wide receiver 2 or wide receiver 1?
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This week still has a rookie quarterback making his third NFL start. It's actually Chuck's first home start, which I actually do like a little bit, especially just from a perspective of wagering on this game. The Saints are laying only one and a half points at home against a Falcons team that just looks, I mean they look more cooked than the Thanksgiving turkey next week essentially with these dirty birds. So I think that he's solid again. He's shown a really high floor with the amount of volume that he's seeing and we've seen the deep ball get kind of unlocked within the last couple weeks with Chuck like Fitz alluded to. But the Falcons, the one thing they have been good defensively is fifth in EPA against the deep ball this year. So if a lot of it doesn't come down with one of those bigger two pass plays, maybe he doesn't finish as a wide receiver one. But I think that you're starting him in basically every format, especially in full ppr.
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All right, we are going to go and jump to the next set of wide Receivers, the wide receiver twos. This is 13 through 24. Starting off at 13 is Ted Roa McMillan, Devontae Smith, George Pickens, Jameson Williams, AJ Brown, Roman Dunes. The first half, second half, Zay Flowers, Michael Pittman, Michael Wilson, Wanda Robinson, DK Metcalf and Juwan Jennings. Teddy Roll McMillan comes in at 13. Lot of negativity. I was poking at Joe about the negativity. We kind of see why there was some negativity towards it. He had a great game last week. He's now going up against the San Francisco 49ers which gave up 12 billion targets to wide receivers and Michael Wilson had 18 targets. So you can only imagine what Tetaro McMillan is in for because they're secondary is trash. Fitz, you've got him at 15. Erickson, you have him at 12. You've got him as a top 12 wide receiver. I am in your camp. I am very pro Bryce Young as a streamer this week and I'm very Pro Tetero and McMillan because the 49ers secondary has absolutely nothing. And that was a big, big game for Tede Row and I think in a level of confidence. But you speak on it. Erickson, what do you think about Tetaro this week?
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Right from my notes. Alpha 49ers defense equals trash. Next question. Fitz to you. I guess the last thing I would say with TMAC is we were questioning what is the ceiling for TMAC every week it's like double digit targets, 30 or higher target share. But never had that spiked week. And then finally he does it in the matchup that we're all concerned about against the Falcons. Great. Against wide receivers. A.J. terrell. Yeah, yeah, it doesn't matter. And then he finally has his monster game. So now that he actually has a good matchup against the 49ers as a straight up Alpha, guys breaking out. And although Bryce Young got banged up last week, I'm not Even sure he's 100 a lock to play against the 49ers. TMAC had a game with Andy Dalton and was still the alpha and was still productive. So I don't even care if it's Andy Dalton under center on Monday night. Tetra McMillan is a wide receiver one this week.
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Yeah, that's where I'm at with it. Fitzy, what do you think? You've got him a little bit lower. You got him at 15. This is kind of like the T. Higgins thing where it's like, I mean Erickson's much higher on T. Higgins, but maybe you feel the same where you're just like, well, I got him at 15, I still like him. Or maybe there's something you don't like about him. But talk to us about Tetaroa.
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If there's anything I don't like about him, it's just that I still don't totally trust the target distribution mechanism for Tedaro McMillan, aka Bryce Young. But like, the setup does look pretty fantastic here. I mean, giving up that many yards last week to Jacoby Brissette's 400 plus yards and like, I don't know if Bryce Young can have a second straight 400 yard game against the 49ers, but man, like, I know part of it was the Cardinals falling into that deep hole against the 49ers early on last week. But the 49ers just have zero pass rush right now. Welsh like, as you know, they ranked dead last in sacks with 12 dead last in pressure rate. Their pressure rate is 13.1%. Next worst is 15.6%. The 49ers have gotten sacks on 2.9% of opponent drop pack. Drop backs next lowest sack rate 3.9%. So basically, Welsh, the 49ers have less of a chance of getting a sack on an opponent drop back than I have of finding a fair way with one of my tee shots. So the, the 49ers cornerbacks are basically sitting ducks with with no pass rush. So yes, this is a great spot for Teo McMillan and it's nice that there's renewed faith in him after he was being ranked in wide receiver three range last week. And now after 130 yards and two touchdowns on a season high 12 targets. He's a high end wide receiver too in the ecr.
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Yeah, one of the weird things like pff, they've got like their matchup grades and stuff like that. I don't understand this. They have, for whatever reason, McMillan's not up there, but they've got legget and it's only given like a fair grade. But the cornerback, The 90ers are 30th of 32, defensive secondary grade and the corners rank. Upton stout is 109 of 110. That's your slot receiver, by the way. Renardo Green is 71 of 110. And Lenore, you know, he's been like a top 40 guy, but he's been banged up. So it's just like the 49ers are just. It's fishing water, man. Fish in a barrel, I think is the better way to say it. Tedro McMillan slam dunk. This week. How about Michael Wilson, the guy that did absolutely torch them? Super pro Michael Wilson saved some weeks. Should have been at the tippy top of the waiver wire. And it was announced before we started the show that Marvin Harrison has already been nixed for week 12. So it is going to be more of Michael Wilson going up against the Jaguars. He comes in at wide receiver 21 on this list. Both of you are higher, which I completely agree with. The matchup grade is actually not super great on pros, but he's number one. Brissette likes him. I think the targets are going to keep going. But what do you think, Fitz?
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What we like about the matchup I think is that the Jaguars defense is a complete pass funnel. I believe they Jaguars opponents have the second highest pass rate in the league and obviously we can't expect another 57 pass attempts from Jacoby Brissette or another 47 completions. But Wilson should once again be the number one receiver on a team with limited options in the passing game. It's Trey McBride, it's Wilson, it's Greg Dorch. It's about it. And the matchup. Yeah, it seems favorable. The Jags are definitely easier to throw on than they are to run on.
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Not that this maybe necessarily matters, but you've also they've nixed D. Markado for the game and they just the windows open for Trey Benson. So if Benson plays, you know, maybe there's more of a dedicated concentration on the running game with him and Bam Knight, but if both of those guys are out and it's just Bam Knight, there's a foreseeable thought that they might be passing 40 plus times again. Erickson, what do you think? What do you think about Michael Wilson this week?
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If it was Marvin Harrison Jr. That had last week's game, where would he be ranked this week? It wouldn't be this low.
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Top 12 probably.
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Yep. And that's not to throw shade at Marvin Harrison Jr. In any way, but to give credit to where credit's due. Michael Wilson, he took care of the opportunities and balled out. And although a lot of it did come in garbage time, he was still tied for the team lead and targets in the first half with Trey McBride. So that to me suggests, hey, this is still sticky with him as the wide receiver one. Even if we don't get as much garbage time with Jacoby Brissette against the Jacksonville Jaguars, their secondary has not been good. It's been also really banged up. Jordan Lewis has been hurt. Greg Newsom got hurt last week. So I Think that this is a favorable spot again for Michael Wilson and where Jacksonville has actually been at its best is actually in the slot defending that position. So although you kind of saw Greg Dorch pop off a little bit, I think that he's probably the most fugazi of the Arizona Cardinals passing deck that you don't want to chase from last week. But Michael Wilson stay in the flames, man, like 18 targets. Guys don't put up 18 targets by accident, especially when you catch 15 of them for 185 yards. So Michael Wilson, former second round pick, he was a really talented guy at Stanford. It was really injuries that were his bugaboo, why he wasn't more productive, but still second round draft capital. And I thought he showed signs as a rookie. And then the Cardinals decided they wanted more with Marvin Harrison Jr. But you know, he's obviously been at disappoint for. For two years of his NFL career. Not entirely all his fault, but Wilson's taking care of his opportunities. So I would stay in the flames.
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Over. Under 8.5 targets for Michael Wilson start with you, Erickson, over.
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Fitzy, over.
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Okay, so I mean if you guys are playing the 910 target game, I think that puts a good spot for him to, you know, being able to at least be ranked as a top 20 wide receiver this week. So I figured there's going to be a lot of questions about Michael Wilson for this week and you know he's going to be laying in that top 20 range. You both have him as a top 20 wide receiver. Final one in this is DK Metcalf coming in at wide receiver 23. The grade matchup looks pretty good against Chicago. You know, he kind of continuously hovers into that like wide receiver two, maybe even wide receiver three range. You both have him slightly higher. Erickson, why don't we start with you, DK Metcalf. You've got him at 21 versus his 23 rank. What do you think?
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I like the matchup. The Chicago Bears can be had against their secondary. They've been dealing with a lot of injuries. They had another injury last week. Tarek Stevenson got banged up. Now still tbd if they get Jalen Johnson back. Kyler Gordon I know has been on ir, but there's a potential that he could practice this week. So there are some question marks with DK Metcalf in this projection against the Bears because we also don't know well who's his quarterback going to be and do I feel more comfortable if it's actually Mason Rudolph and Not Aaron Rodgers starting in this game considering and I talked about this with Seth on the trade show because Metcalf was one of my buy low targets. I think it's kind of like a boost if Mason Rudolph is the quarterback because I think Rudolph is. Look, we've seen him facilitate receivers before. I believe last year Calvin Ridley had a couple decent games with Mason Rudolph. I think that he was on the Titans last. I'm just trying, trying to remember exactly Mason Rudolph's trajectory of his career. But we saw him with George Pickens during that tenure with the Pittsburgh Steers be pretty productive as well. And the last three weeks, I don't know if you guys remember, but remember we got that report for Rodgers that he injured his like a finger on his throwing hand like in during pregame warm ups. Ever since that report it's been bad for Aaron Rodgers the last three weeks and that's when you've seen this fall off with DK Metcalf in his production despite the fact that he's still seeing a high target share, he's still seeing a lot of red zone targets, a lot of air yards. So I think that you want to buy into the matchup here and I think that you probably feel even better about pressing the button on Metcalf if you do have Mason Rudolph actually making the start. And again if it is Rogers, I don't think that downgrades Metcalf too substantially because hey, it's the Bears and Rodgers owns them.
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C
Fitzy, you got him at the same rank. Let me ask you, is he the end of a tier or the start of a new tier based on the range? So like right above him on ECR at least you got Wanda, you got Michael Robinson, Pittman, Flowers. Those are the guys above below. It's like Juwan Jennings and the next range we're going to talk about goes to Alec Pearson stuff. Do you think he is like this start or end of a wide receiver? 2/3 tier.
- [24:05]
D
I think he's kind of at the start of a three tier. Like I have him ranked right below Roma Dunes. I feel decidedly better about odunze this than I do about dk. Although I agree with Erickson that I don't think it would necessarily be a downgrade, maybe even an upgrade if it's Mason Rudolph instead of Aaron Rodgers this week. As for the matchup, so yes, the Bears are giving up the fifth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but the Jalen Johnson thing is big. Could be back this week. I think it's better than 50 50. He is back this week. Jalen Johnson hasn't played since week one. He is one of the better perimeter corners in the league and he would probably, I'm guessing, cover DK Metcalf on a good number of his routes. So if he plays like I might move DK Metcalf down a few spots from wide receiver 21 and really it's just been kind of a downward trajectory for DK and I know a lot of it is Aaron Rodgers Related first six weeks of the season this this weird catch and run thing with DK was working out and he was wide receiver 10 and a half point PPR fantasy points per game, averaging 71.2 yards, had four touchdowns in five games. Since week seven, DK has averaged 39 receiving yards a game. High water mark over that stretch was 55 yards and he scored only one touchdown in his last five games. He's wide receiver 54 in fantasy points per game since week seven. So things have not been going well. And you know, you almost hope that maybe you do get a little bit of a shake up with Mason Rudolph and he starts targeting DK downfield a little bit more.
- [25:43]
C
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- [29:27]
C
Wide receiver Threes let's kick it off with Alec Pierce coming in at number 25. We've got Christian Watson, Romeo Dobbs, couple Green Bay guys, Jordan Addison, Khalil Shakir, Ricky Piersol at 30, Xavier Worthy, Trey Tucker, Darnell Mooney, DJ Moore, Tez Johnson and Jerry Judy. Speaking of those Green Bay wide receivers, Christian Watson is going to be on a lot of our minds. He is wide receiver 26 on this list. He has moved above the I always catch touchdowns. Romeo Dobbs from this week, it's I only drop passes all day long and Christian Watson makes all these great plays. He is now the wide receiver of favor and also kind of been the, you know, the replacement guy to any of these injuries. He's with like kind of the top of the waivers. A lot of people were deciding between Michael Wilson or Christian Watson this week. Michael Wilson's got the front for this week, but from a season total, maybe Christian Watson. Fitzy, how do you feel about him? You've got him one spot higher. He just almost is a wide receiver, too. But let's talk about your Green Bay wide receiver going up against Minnesota.
- [30:28]
D
Yeah. So in the four games since his return, since his debut this season, Watson has averaged 19.5 yards per catch, 13.8 yards per target, average depth of target, 22.6 yards. He's been a big play vertical receiver. It's kind of a boomer bust profile because there's not heavy target volume. And we're kind of trying to assign Watson this medium outcome ranking for a boom bust profile. That's tricky. But obviously like me, Erickson and all the other rankers are kind of in similar spots here with our median low end wide receiver 2 high end wide receiver 3 ranking for Christian Watson. One thing that could maybe get me to move Watson down a bit in the rankings later this week would be if, if we get word that Jaden Reed is going to be back. He's, he's got his practice window open after being on IR since week two with a broken collarbone. He does have a chance to play this week.
- [31:26]
C
Erickson, is that enough for you to move Watson at all if Jaden Reed is active?
- [31:30]
E
I don't think so because I don't know if Jaden Reed coming back is going to dramatically alter. I mean, we're looking at four to five targets, right? I think almost no matter what happens. I mean, even Watson's game logs, you're not seeing someone that's commanding double digit targets. Even in this game against the Giants where he popped off, caught the two touchdowns, he had five targets. He's had four targets in every single game besides last week. So I think that the volume, unfortunately, and this is just how the Green Bay packers operate their offense is no. 1 is wide receiver one. Everybody gets four to six targets and it's up to you to decide whether you make it work or you don't make it work. Last week, Watson made it work. Romeo Dobbs did not make it work. So I think Watson is a boomer bust type of play regardless of Jaden Reed coming back or not. But I want to always try to shoot for upside, which Watson has shown that he can do with the big plays averaging nearly 20 yards per catch. And against the Minnesota Vikings, who are one of the most boom or bust type of defenses. Yeah, you're looking at he could put up a goose egg or he could score 25 points. I want to embrace that type of risk in my fantasy line because Watson can help win your week for you. So I don't think I'm going to be moved too much if Jaden Reeds end up playing. Maybe Dobbs would be someone that actually probably moved down more because I think that he is more reliant on seeing steady volume because he's just not as efficient or frankly not as good as Christian Watson.
- [32:51]
C
Would you guys agree with this at all that I'm just kind of staring at this list? Is this the riskiest wide receiver threes we've had all season? Like look at this list of Worthy and Addison and Dobbs and then the group we're going to talk about at the bottom. Like we've all long like what's our narrative? We're like wide receiver threes. These are fun. And then we're like running backs threes. They stink. I'm looking at this and I'm like, this stinks. Like these are options, but there is just a lot of inherent risk. Guys, we're not planning to talk about Ricky Pierasol. Can you trust Ricky Pierasol? Khalil Shakur, banged up Addison. I mean there's just a lot of weirdness that's in it. And then that takes us to the bottom portion of this, this list. And coming in at 32 is Trey Tucker. You want to talk about things you can't trust going up against the Cleveland Browns, he is wide receiver 32 and you two are on opposite ends of this. So Ericsson, why don't we Start it with you. You are on the positive. You're one spot higher ECR wise on Trey Tucker at 31 and Vitzy's on the other end. So why don't you tell us the positive spin if there really is one on Trey Tucker.
- [33:55]
E
He's the number one wide receiver on the Raiders. Eight targets last week, four for 47 and a touchdown. He scored a touchdown against the Devon Broncos but it came back on a penalty and they find ways to scheme him up the ball. So even against a tougher pass rush with Miles Garrett getting bad offensive line for the Raiders, look, they are playing at home. The Browns defense isn't as good on the road as it is at home and if you're Smith doesn't have time to throw, he's going to be checking it down to Trey Tucker. So I mean that's about it. Again, I'm not trying to be the high man on Trey Tucker so I can definitely see how Fitz will pour cold water all over Trey Tucker. But I think that he's been fine for most of the season as a wide receiver 3 and especially with Jacoby Myers no longer in the folder, they're not using the rookie wide receivers at all in this Raiders offense. So Tucker and we saw Tyler Lockett kind of turn back into the guy that we thought he was. Like he wasn't commanding targets. So I think Tucker is the guy that, you know every time we watch Raiders games or I watch Raiders games, they just talk about how much the coaching staff loves Trey Tucker and getting him involved and he's really fast so he can always break off a big play. So yeah, that's about it for Tucker.
- [34:59]
C
There I was head into that game just because I had multiple bets in it and there I feel like there were a couple targets to Tyler Lockett that didn't get registered like that just due to the plays. Like he was a little bit involved. But regardless of the point, outside of Bowers, like Tucker is the guy Fitzy you don't like hate hate him but you definitely you've booted him out of wide receiver three range. You you're eight spots off of Erickson so that's not like the biggest thing in the world. But he's a wide receiver three in ECR and you have him as a mid wide receiver floor four type of guy at 39.
- [35:29]
D
Yeah. And you mentioned how weird the wide receiver three scene is this week. I've got Andre Josevash ranked in wide receiver 3 range and I'd rather play Yosevash than Tucker. I mean, quite frankly, I think Josevash might be a better receiver. Like I, I don't trust the Raiders offense, I certainly trust the Bengals offense more than the Raiders. And I, I don't really love the player here. Like Trey Tucker has averaged 1.14 yards per out run for his career. But then again, I, I mentioned last week that Michael Wilson had averaged 1.09 yards per out run for his career. And Michael Wilson wound up doing pretty well last week. So maybe you should play Trey Tucker this week. But like he's been Boomer bust this year. He has put up fewer than six half point PPR fantasy points in five of ten games this season. So he is bricked in half his games, but he's had a 36.9 point game and a couple of 12 point games. So Boomer bus profile for sure. I will correct Erickson when he says that Trey Tucker is their number one receiver. Brock Bowers is their number one receiver. But you know, I guess Trey Tucker's.
- [36:34]
C
Number two positionally as a wide receiver, I think is what he's saying. Yeah, not the, the target here.
- [36:39]
D
Ours is the number one tight end and the number one receiver. There you go.
- [36:43]
C
All right, let's put, let's put some sicko mode to test here because you want to talk about Trey Tucker. How about this? I think this is going to be a billion questions for everybody. Darnell Mooney. This is real sick test here. 33 at wide receiver. You guys are on the opposite end again, but this time it is four flipped. Doesn't look like we got. I think they've already ruled out no Drake London Penx is out for the season. It's Kirk Cousins. They are going up against the Saints. So however you want to look at that matchup, again, you guys are on the opposite end. So Fitz, you get to kick it off here. You actually, you guys are literally just flipped on Mooney and, and Trey Tucker. Where Erickson wants Trey Tucker, you seem to want Mooney. He is going to be the theoretical number one fit. So talk to us. How sick can you get with Darnell Mooney?
- [37:33]
D
Yeah, that's it. Can we ascribe a Michael Wilson type setup to Darnell Mooney? There are some problems with that one. You know, it's just, it's Kirk Cousins versus Jacoby Brissette and Jacoby Brissette still has like a functional arm. I'm not sure Kirk Cousins could break a pane of glass with his arm these days. And that's kind of a Problem with Darnell Mooney being sort of a vertical receiver. And Mooney's had a really tough year. I don't know if he's been healthy since summer when you know, he's had a collarbone injury. He's had what a hamstring issue. So yeah, he is technically the number one receiver, but we could see just as many targets for guys like Kadero Hodge and Casey Washington this week. So I don't know if we should really be giving Mooney a huge bump for that. I think he's startable, but I'm not necessarily expecting 10 or 12 targets this week.
- [38:38]
C
Erickson, you are the Trey Tucker of Mooney that Fitz he had. You've got him outside of a startable wide receiver, which is the top 36, you've got him at 39. Not as optimistic about Darnell Mooney, eh?
- [38:52]
E
Feels like a trap, right? We did this a couple weeks ago when he got the start, London was out, Cousins was the quarterback and he face planted. It was terrible. And I agree with Fitz. I don't think that he's 100 healthy, but the guy has been terrible this year. He is PFF's worst graded wide receiver this season and I don't agree that he is the worst wide receiver in the NFL. Mooney's had a thousand yard seasons. Just 20, 25 is not his year. Right. He has one top 36 finish all season long. And it's not that he's not seeing targets, he's just not hauling them in. And Kirk Cousins, the arm. I don't think the styles make a lot of fit together. The first thing the coaches say when they talk about, oh, we're out with Pennocks, we don't have Drake London. The first thing the coaches say is, oh yeah, we got to run the ball more. Like it's not like, oh, let's feature Darnell Mooney as our number one wide receiver. It's okay. Like, let's hide Kirk Cousins. Like that's the strategy. And against the Saints, you aren't expecting one team to kind of blow out the other team. Even if I like the Saints at home. So I think that they're going to be able to feed Bijan and Tajir as many carries as I want and hide Kirk Cousins. So I think that Mooney's a trap this week. I get if you're in desperation, yes, he's going to project decently. Well, his projections are going to probably have him as a top 36 wide receiver. But I just, I'm trusting what I'VE been seeing with Mooney this year and what the advanced metrics have shown that Mooney's just been terrible. And honestly, I don't think the Saints are just like this terrible pass defense. If you look at them this year, 11th and fewest yards allowed per game, under 200 passing yards allowed per game this season. I think they actually have some cornerbacks that are like pretty decent. So I don't think that this is a. Oh, it's the Bengals. The Cowboys just. Mooney can get there in a great matchup. I really don't think that is in a divisional game. The Saints are 19th in total defense of DVOA, which based on the fact that they're a 2 and 8 team, that's kind of surprising to me. So I, I think there are better upside options, like Yoshi Boss, like, give me that guy over Donna Mooney, like, give me him in the spot start against the Patriots versus Mooney, where there.
- [40:52]
C
Were two, there's now three for our disgusting wide receiver wolf pack, we are letting Jerry Judy join the group. He is. Jerry Judy has entered the chat. Trey Tucker, from Darnell Moody to Jerry Judy, comes in at wide receiver, 36 on this list going up against the Raiders. And you two sickos both have him above consensus. So Erickson, why don't you. Why don't you jump into our third in the wolf pack of gross wide receivers? You're starting Jerry Judy this week.
- [41:20]
E
Legendary. Yes. Jerry Judy is in starting consideration this week. A lot of what I've thought about this year with some of these receivers and quarterbacks changing is styles make fights, Right? Does the quarterback, wide receiver style and how they play fit to see success? And something I remember Travis Hunter talking about during the combine was who are some of the wide receivers he studied the most at the NFL level? One of those receivers was Jerry Judy. So I think that again, we saw Shadir Sanders have a lot of success with Travis Hunter with these bubble screens stuff behind the line of scrimmage. And the coaching staff continues to rave about Judy as we got to get Judy the ball. We got to get Judy the ball. We got to get Judy the ball. So with a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road, yeah, I think that when they're going to be dropping back to throw, they're going to be throwing to Jerry Judy. Even in the one game when Cheddar came in last week, the most targeted receiver in his time playing was Jerry Judy with four targets. Was it efficient? No, because it's probably not going to be efficient. But if you're going to see double digit targets, I think that warrants at least a wide receiver 3 type of consideration. Especially with Judy again, two weeks ago he did finally have a decent game. So it's not just the every single week is terrible for Judy. At least we have a sample size of one game out of their bye week where he actually did something and it's against the Raiders who just got absolutely shredded by CD Lamb, George Pickens, basically anyone on Dallas. So again, Judy's not to that level. The Browns are not Dallas Cowboys offensively, but I think that he can do enough to salvage a top 36 finish.
- [42:52]
C
Fitz, can he do enough? Can Chador do enough? Can Judy do enough? This is a tough one to stomach. You guys have been doing your Yoshi Voss thing the whole time. Give me him over Jerry Judy. Just putting Jerry Judy in a lineup feels grosser than putting Darnell Mooney or Trey Tucker. But you tell me Fitzy it does.
- [43:08]
D
I mean if I'm trying to talk myself into this. Welsh well, I mean looking at it where he ranks in fantasy scoring, wide receiver 61 1/2 point PPR, it's hard to make a case. But Jerry Judy does rank 19th among wide receivers and targets 17th among wide receivers in air yards. Gets this matchup against the Raiders whose cornerbacks are terrible. And you know the Raiders have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. And if it's Shadour Sanders, while we know it is going to be Shadour Sanders starting in place of the concussed Dylan Gabriel Shador is probably going to be more aggressive throwing downfield than Gabriel was because it would be hard to be less aggressive than Gabriel was throwing downfield. So maybe that's good for Jerry Judy. Yeah, I mean it's a dicey case and wide receiver three is just kind of a sinkhole this week.
- [44:00]
C
Well, if you've got more questions, don't worry. We got the weekly Start and Sit live stream right here on the YouTube where you guys can come and ask any of those specific ones. We'll be here every Thursday and this Thursday at 3pm Eastern. So if you're on the podcast YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe click the Note the bell to be notified. Don't miss any of it. Get all those questions answered. That is going to do it. Wide receivers for week 12 in the books for Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitz Morris, I'm Chris Welsh. We're out of here. Goodbye. We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
- [44:30]
E
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [45:13]
C
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A
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