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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 14 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, and Must-Starts (Ep. 1876)
00:44:57
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- [00:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:02]
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- [00:36]
Chris Welsh
What's up friends and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast Week 14 Wide Receiver ranks Episode I am Chris Welsh. We got Pat Fitz Morris and Andrew Erickson back after the holidays but ready to lock you guys in before your fantasy playoffs. Not you universally, but pretty close to it. This is the final regular season game for fantasy football for the most part for most people. So you're going to have to get it all in here. Make your final playoff run. Pat, will you be making many playoff runs across your gajillion teams so far this year?
- [01:09]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I guess my share in a few. You know, I'm probably going to be one for two in fantasy pros leagues as far as making the playoffs and the home leagues are that might be a clean sweep of getting in but man, I had some tough losses in industry leagues last week where, you know, losing a game where I was going against the Seattle defense and lost by two points when Seattle scored 30 on me, that was painful. So yeah, I mean there are some leagues where I'm going to be the riff raff who gets thrown out after week 14.
- [01:43]
Chris Welsh
Our fantasy pros leagues I'm going to go two and one are one of them. It was our content team one. I'm the worst, absolute worst. I snuck in in our insiders league and then I just took down, took down Ryan Wormley in the Guillotine. So I am the Guillotine champ taking that down. Thank you to wide receiver JSN for absolutely fumbling week 14. Erickson. What what's it looking like for you?
- [02:08]
Andrew Erickson
Well, our content team, the playoffs start this week so not exactly sure who made the settings that way but shout out to me. I'm the number one seed. I have Drake, man, he's on a buy. It doesn't matter because I'm on a buy too. So I'm locked and loaded ready for week 15. Fitzy, if you beat Joey this week, you'll be facing me. It's a road match for you. So Good luck to you. In week 15. I'll be cheering for you to face off against me and I will have Drake May back in the starting lineup. So I'm giving everyone else a bye week essentially this week because I have been the powerhouse of the content team from that draft that we should all go back and watch. After I was ridiculed for drafting two tight ends and despite losing Tucker Kraft halfway through the season, we continued to roll.
- [02:48]
Chris Welsh
I mean, it's poetic too that you could go against Fitzy with Drake May. It's very, very poetic. That is beautiful. So we'll throw in our slight little updates here and there. Excited to hear from you guys as well. In a lot of our live streams, you guys have been popping in about, you know, the turnarounds you've had in your season, the playoff runs you're going to make, and hopefully we will be able to help you guys out in making those as the Rank show continues on through the playoffs. So we're going to jump into the wide receiver ranks. But before we do, let's give a shout out we do the ranks accuracy contest. We did not get to do it last week or at least talk about it last week on the show because we did a little bit early to Thanksgiving. Do want to give a shout out to Tom Strachan who finished third the previous week, who I do the live stream with. That was pretty awesome. But this week we've got a top three for the week 13 ranks and coming in at one is Tal Machofsky. Hopefully I said that correctly. Malchofsky from the Fantasy Scout finishing number one, Jacob Pacolo from True RGM and Joshua Kimmel from Fantasy Now. Plus, those are your top three most accurate rankers from week 13. We do have some shout outs. Mike Mayer, 14. Go away mayor. Good lord. Every single week it's just locked in top 15. I believe he's 10 on the season so we're going to have to get him on this show next year. Shout out to Kelly Kirby who also finished at 21. And I'm going to give the shout out to our boy Andrew Erickson on this show who, yes, finished 31, which is still pretty good. I finished top 50 so a little shout out to me. But you finished 31 but fourth in wide receiver. So pretty important spot for you, Erickson for this week in wide receivers. Fitzy, you're our man.
- [04:26]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Bad week.
- [04:27]
Andrew Erickson
Bad week.
- [04:27]
Chris Welsh
It was bad week. That's all it was is a bad week. But you know you're still the top dog of us. I think I've only finished higher than you twice this entire season so it's not too incredibly anything to be proud of. But those are your big rankers. You guys can check them out fantasybros.com rankings if you want to check out the ECR. And then we have the accuracy contest that we put an article out every single week if you want to see who's finished and where. And these two guys are near the tippy top of the list as well, so make sure you're locked in. All right. Before the last thing before we get to the ranks giveaways so you know there's a good reason to not go straight into the ranks. We are going to announce a Justin Jefferson winner and and then we are going to have a brand new and the brand the new one is sick. All right, so we're announcing the winner of the Justin Jefferson Vikings jersey giveaway. The winner is Travis. That's all they gave me. Just if your name is Travis in the world you might be a winner. Which Travis I don't know. But we'll be contacting you to get you that price so be on the lookout. Congratulations to all the Travis's in the world, but one specifically will be taking the Justin Jefferson jersey home and you can put it to better use than he is right now. So next prize though, check this out. If you want a chance to win a Bijan Robinson and Drake London sign mini helmet. Both of those guys sign mini helmet for free courtesy of our friends@pristine auction.com you have got to head over to fantasybros.com contest. Complete the form, download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review on the podcast. Follow us on X Instagram TikTok Antasypros is the social. You can do all of those and each one gets you an entry. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. So if you're watching on YouTube make sure you subscribe put on notifications so you can claim that prize. Bijan Robinson and Drake London signed mini helmet is pretty, pretty sweet. So we'll be announcing that. So good luck to all even the Travis's if you're maybe we'll have another Travis at 1. All right, ranks fantasy bros.com rankings if you want to follow along. Gentlemen, let's jump in to the big board. Our big board wide receiver top 12 ranks for week 14 starts with Jackson Smith and Jigba Jamar Chase at 2 CD Lamb, Rasheed Rice, Puka Nukua and George Pickens. That's your top six. So I thought we might see some George Pickens over CD Lamb. We're still not quite seeing that at 7. Devonte Adams, Jamison Williams, Nico Collins, AJ Brown, Chris Olave and Jalen Waddle. These are chalk plays, gentlemen, as you know. Not sure there's a ton of discussion to be had, but one really interesting one is Rasheed Rice. Rasheed Rice is coming in at 4 on this list, ahead of Pukinaku, ahead of George Pickens, who's going in Detroit. And the reason we highlight it is it's a pretty tough, tough Texans defense. His ECR is 4. Fitzy, you're kind of in agreement. You got him higher at three and Erickson, you got a little bit lower. So, Fitzy, why don't you kick us off here? What's got you positive on Rasheed Rice in this Texans matchup?
- [07:22]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It is a tough matchup. On paper, the Texans probably have the best defense in the NFL. They've allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. But the Texans are kind of a slot funnel in terms of the fantasy points the defenses have allowed to slot receivers. As a percentage of the total fantasy points they've allowed to receivers, The Texans are fourth highest behind only the 49ers, Bills and Colts. Hat tip to my buddies over at Rasball for those numbers. And Rasheed Rice just shows up week after week. He's averaging seven catches and 81 receiving yards a game. He scored six touchdowns in the six games since he came back from suspension. Rasheed Rice has at least 18.6 PPR points in every game except for the game against the Broncos, where he had 9.8 points on six catches for 38 yards. Texans will be the best defense the Chiefs have faced since that game against the Broncos. So maybe we should temper expectations for Rice a little bit. But because of that slot funnel thing going on with the Texans, I would still expect Rasheed Rice to be pretty heavily involved.
- [08:26]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, you got him at 7. It's not a negative or anything, just a couple spots lower. But do you think we should temper those expectations on Rice just slightly?
- [08:34]
Andrew Erickson
I think so, to the point that Fitz made. This is the best defense the Chiefs have faced all season, and last week it was shootout, shootout, shootout, scoring bonanza in the dome against the Dallas Cowboys. Rashi Rice, I think, was wide receiver one on the week. That's not going to happen this week against the Houston Texans. Like both these teams, the Texans love to play Unders like no other team that plays in the NFL. And we look at the Chiefs that They played at home. They've had one game that's gone over the projected total at home this season. One and five over, under towards the total. Look at the total. It's 41 and a half points. So we're not expecting, at least those in Vegas are not expecting, hey, this is going to be a shootout. We see offenses look and really come back down to earth after facing the Dallas Cowboys defense. So we get all on board. Mahomes QB1, four touchdowns last week. Would anybody be surprised if he throws none this week? Because I mean that wouldn't be super, super shocking. So for me it's just a matter of is this the Rice ceiling week I'm going to lean towards? No. Last week was the Rice ceiling week. So I think that again, it's not a reason to not start him in any capacity. Of course. And that's why he's still going to be ranked. You know, I have him seven in the ECR rankings and to the point that Fitz made, he's still going to see plenty of volume as the Texans funnel targets towards the slot. But I just don't think that this is like the ceiling spot for him. And when I'm looking at my rankings, a guy one spot ahead because I think he could finish as the wide receiver. One on the week is Jameson Williams. Like if I'm on Rob Brown Saint doesn't play this week. Like dude, he's facing Dallas. Like Jameson Williams has been a top six receiver in three of his last four games. I, I just when I'm looking for searching for ceiling, it's I'm taking jam over Rice this week.
- [10:15]
Chris Welsh
Let me ask you just real quick on this too. I was gonna ask, do you. Because there's a big separator between where Rasheed Rice is and like Nico Collins. So this is a two parter question. First off, do you think that Nico Collins and Rice are in the same tier or they are. I would say the ranks are kind of telling us that they're separated but just you don't have to go into a bunch of analysis. But Ericsson, start with you. Do you think Nico and Rice are way closer than the ranks are telling us or they should have this type of gap?
- [10:42]
Andrew Erickson
I think they should have a gap because I think that the thing with Rice is he can have a bad, bad game in terms of yardage but he has the most touchdown equity in the Chiefs offense and the Chiefs love to throw the football. So if they can't run the ball with Kareem Hunt, he could still Catch, you know, multiple touchdowns like that. That's how this would beat me probably. I just don't expect Rice is going to get 100 yards in this game. He's going to catch 10, 12 balls. Maybe that's not really the case here. Rip off like a lot of explosive plays. I feel pretty confident saying that either Rice, Kelsey or Hunt is probably going to disappoint. I mean, not. I can't imagine all three are going to hit against the Texans defense. So I would lean towards Hunt being the guy that's left out of the, out of the party just because he's definitely the most touchdown dependent. So that's kind of the way I see it.
- [11:28]
Chris Welsh
Okay, Fitz, then let me just assume real quick, Fitz, you agree with that, that they're kind of separated. Yeah.
- [11:34]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Nico's had four or fewer receptions in six of his 11 games this year. Rasheed Rice has only had one game in six with four catches.
- [11:44]
Chris Welsh
Okay, so this is an agreement then. So then the other question is, and Fitz, you'll ask you this. Do you think in this top end wide receiver tier here, do you think that the gap starts between 9 and 10 or at 11? And what I'm getting at is, you know, a bunch of great core players. You mentioned Jameson Williams kind of belongs in there, but do you think the tier starts to change where there might be questions starting at A.J. brown or when Olave and Jalen Waddle become wide receiver ones? Are they kind of the something is not like the other and is it Olave and Waddle or would you throw A.J. brown in their fits?
- [12:17]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think I'm going to have a tear break when I do my tears article this week between Jameson Williams and Nico Collins. I think that's going to be a tear break for me.
- [12:26]
Chris Welsh
Okay, so Nico probably falling in there. All right, let's go to the second tier. A lot more discussion to be had here. These are the wide receiver twos. Wide receiver 13 through 24. We kick it off with lad McConkey at 13. Ameka Egbuca, Justin Jefferson, Devonta Smith, Christian Watson, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin comes in at 19. At 20 is Michael Wilson. We we got Michael Pittman, Courtland Sutton, Jacoby Myers and Khalil Shakir. Let's talk about the elephant in the room. That is Justin Jefferson. ECR is 15. You guys have a bit of a separation on your valuation. I think everybody is struggling. Big topic of discussion. We did it on out of bounds between Trojan horsing Justin Jefferson to AS is piece of PIA called It Titanic wide receiver, which is you go down with the ship. The quarterbacks stink. There's incredible matchups in front of him. So I mean, at least it's not Brossmer, but something's got to give at some point, or at least you're hoping it is. And ECR is really not telling the story that I think a lot of just like the public is feeling, I think a lot of people who are ranking just can't let go of the matchups. And maybe having McCarthy back coming in at 15. As said, you guys are both different. Fitzy, let's get the pessimistic look because you are lower on him than ECR where Erickson is actually a little bit higher.
- [13:47]
Pat Fitzmaurice
And I have tried to be the crewman on the Titanic and go down with the ship. With recent rankings, I've kind of.
- [13:59]
Yeah, I've been like in the movie Titanic where the band is playing on deck while the ship is going down. I've kind of been that guy with Justin Jefferson, but I'm sort of done with that. Like we just keep waiting for the big Justin Jefferson game. But you know, receivers rely on their quarterbacks to a large degree and the Vikings have gotten the worst quarterbacking of any NFL team this season. So Jefferson has two touchdowns on the year, one touchdown over his last 11 games. He's had under 50 receiving yards in four of his last five. He hasn't hit 80 receiving yards in a game since week five. I know the commander's past defense is shaky and that's the hope here that a great receiver can pop against a shaky secondary. I mean, I'm still ranking him inside the top 20 a receiver. I'm starting him in the aforementioned Fantasy Pros Content league in that wild card game against Joe Pizza Pia, but I just can't get any higher than wide receiver. 19 knowing that J.J. mcCarthy is the target delivery mechanism for Justin Jefferson.
- [15:00]
Chris Welsh
Yeah, yeah, I love the matchup. But you know, 19 late teens does kind of start to create a situation where there is viable questions. You know, someone had picked off Terry McLaurin off the scrap heap or you know, Devonta Smith or Christian Watson ranking higher. People really might have questions where you don't start Jefferson, but we're not talking about Jefferson in the space that I feel like some are thinking like, hey guys, should I start Kobe Myers over Justin Jefferson? It's a great matchup. Quarterback plays a slight improvement, I guess with McCarthy there. Erickson, you've got him at 14. You're one spot higher. So is this about Going against the Commanders. Or Is this about J.J. mcCarthy back here? Or is this just blind optimism?
- [15:41]
Andrew Erickson
It's not just blind optimism, minus blind.
- [15:45]
Chris Welsh
Optimism I've been having.
- [15:46]
Andrew Erickson
But I think that this is a significantly better spot for Justin Jefferson. Look at the last two weeks on the road against the packers. On the road against the Seahawks with an undrafted rookie quarterback making his first start behind an injured offensive line. Like in both those games, the offensive line got extremely banged up. Derrisal is expected to come back for this matchup for the Minnesota Vikings, as is Ryan Kelly, the starting center. So I just think that the optics are significantly better. You're back at home in the dome where you can play a little bit more control behind an offensive line that has struggled at times this season. You look at McCarthy, he's foreign. He's 80% towards the over on his receiving yards this year at home. So he's been much better playing indoors. And you look at the Washington Commanders, they're terrible on defense. Fifth or excuse me, top five and yards allowed, two wide receivers this season. So I think that Jefferson bounces back here. Now, does that mean he finishes as a top five wide receiver? Probably not because he hasn't done that all season long. The pure upside play with Jefferson just really been non existent with J.J. mcCarthy. But to Fitz's point, he's only caught two touchdowns. Those were in games where McCarthy started both of them after missing time with an injury. So third time's a charm, right? He's going to score find Patriot against the Commanders who suck on defense. This is where my blind optimism is coming in, where I'm making these really, really stretched narratives where Jefferson's going to find, find the paint here. So still, I think the matchup is still just too good. And I think after he hit rock, I mean, we do this all the time, right? It's like we're ready to bury the guy. We have the shovel, we have the tombstone all picked out, ready to go. And then of course he, he, he bounces back because it's Justin Jefferson at the end of the day. So as much as I would like to kind of go back to okay because I, I feel like I was the one pushing back on Jefferson the last couple weeks where, where Fitz was a little bit more positive. I'm kind of like reversing that now. I'm like, nope. Now I'm kind of back in a little bit here because I love the matchup. He's actually on my prediction show, I predicted Jefferson would be back in that top 20 wide receiver territory. And I mean, guys, you know what his receiving arts prop this week is? Any guesses?
- [17:41]
Chris Welsh
I'm gonna guess it's 54.
- [17:44]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's about what I would have guessed.
- [17:45]
Andrew Erickson
It's 60 yards.
- [17:48]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Wow.
- [17:48]
Chris Welsh
Give me to 50. I'll be excited. Can we. For our editors. Can you cut me and Erickson's head off and then put us on the band members of the Titanic and then.
- [18:00]
And then we sink into the ship, please? Thank you very much. All right, let's go to the next wide receiver, Christian Watson. Christian Watson is in the teens now here. Wide receiver 17 on ECR. You guys are a little bit split. One higher, one lower. As we kind of like to see going up against the Chicago Bears. This is actually one of only two four star rated matchups in these. In this wide receiver 13 through 24 range, by the way, number one, Justin Jefferson. So these are the two best in this entire spot. Ericsson, you were the high man though, so let's start with you. Then. Christian Watson, you've got at 16, so it's one spot higher. But you are buying that not only is he the Green Bay wide receiver to trust, but you're putting some serious trust in as a like mid wide receiver too here.
- [18:43]
Andrew Erickson
He's been really good the last couple of weeks. He's dominated the targets in the last two games. Since Week 8, he's wide receiver 24 in points per game and he's obviously outpacing his expected points per game, which is wide receiver 35. Because we know that nobody really gets the wide receiver one treatment in this packers offense. Although the last two weeks he has really taken the lion's share of targets. Now I think that the concern with him, and it's similar to what we've seen with Michael Wilson and Stefan Diggs is, okay, well, what happens when guys come back into the offense? Like, is Jaden Reed going to play this week? I think that potentially matters for Christian Watson because we saw with Romeo Dobbs, like his production has fallen off a cliff since Christian Watson came back to the lineup. So that is the thing that probably concerns me the most about having him as a top 20 guy and even up here at 16. But he's just so explosive. He's looked fantastic and even missed out on some opportunities last week with Jordan Love. But I think Love is kind of dialed in a little bit here. He's been playing a little bit better and they're just not afraid to check the ball deep. Like I think Jordan Love leaves the NFL in yards per attempt this season because they know they can just dial up these explosive plays. I get the Chicago Bears got some of their cornerbacks back last week with Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but we've seen Christian Watson last year against Jalen Johnson. He had a lot of success against him. They like to play a lot of man coverage. We saw that against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bears play more man coverage with their cornerbacks back. Christian Watson's the man coverage beater. So the thing that's fringy about it is, okay, very realistic that Watson could get like five targets. You're like, okay, like kind of threading the needle here. But if he does come down with one of those big plays, scores a touchdown, which he has basically kind of been doing since he came back in Week eight, and you feel pretty good about starting him. But I, I do acknowledge that there is a bit of a shakier floor with Christian Watson just because of some of those guys that could potentially be coming back. Matthew golden as well who have been.
- [20:32]
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- [21:05]
Pat Fitzmaurice
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- [22:00]
Chris Welsh
The thing I really liked was because the packers will always do this. It'll and Fitzy knows better than anybody. You know they'll be just like a random wide receiver like this Week's is Dobbs, this week it's Wicks and they keep doing this and we had Wicks obviously have the breakout, but Watson was still able to get volume and he is the big play threat, which that kind of makes me feel a little bit more floor ish. You definitely are still in. You're just lower than ECR Fitz, you got him at 21, so he's still a wide receiver too. But any type of, you know, pessimism or what's going on with your take on Christian Watson in this packers offense?
- [22:33]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, I mean, the funny thing is there's some separation between Ericsson's ranking of Christian Watson and my ranking of him. But Erickson framed it perfectly. What the production profile is for Christian Watson this year. He's got a high ceiling because he lives on these big plays. He's got probably a little lower floor than some of the other guys in wide receiver 2 range because we can't totally count on the targets. I mean, he had four targets in each of his first three games back from the knee injury, then five, seven and 10 targets in his last three games. So the trend is upward, which we like. But it wouldn't be shocking if Watson had only four or five targets in any given week because as Erickson said, Jordan Love does spread the ball around and the packers could get one or both of Matthew golden and Jaden Reed back this week. So. And as far as that matchup against the Bears.
- [23:28]
The numbers say it's a good one and I think the four stars is kind of going on the overall season for the Bears. But yeah, they'd played most of the year without Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon. And I know Christian Watson did some work against Jalen Johnson last year, but Jalen Johnson is still a pretty good cover corner. Like, I think he's a Probably a top 10 or 15 cover corner in the league. So not maybe as easy a matchup as the numbers would suggest.
- [23:54]
Chris Welsh
Number three on this list is, I think this is going to be a highly asked about player. It's Terry McLaurin. Terry McLaren came back. We were kind of given a, like this is going to be a snap thing and we'll see what type of volume is there. And then all of a sudden, you know, big explosive game. Now it did come with 50 Mariota Pass attempts, which we're not going to get every single week. But Terry McLaurin definitely kind of popped. But we are continuing this trend a little bit where Erickson's our Pollyanna and Fitzy, you're going to bring us down to earth a little bit. So Fitz, why don't you bring us down to earth on Terry McLaurin and Mario Ta?
- [24:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, the grumpy old man stance. Is that.
- [24:37]
So? McLaurin came back from his quad injury, his quad re injury since he had tried to come back in week eight and re aggravated it and had his best season against or best game of the season against an excellent Denver defense, seven catches, 96 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets. He played limited snaps in that game. He was on the field for 46 plays. He earned targets on 30% of his snaps, which is kind of crazy.
- [25:05]
Possible now that the Commanders get Jaden Daniels back this week, which would be an upgrade. And I am sort of ranking McLaurin on the assumption that it's Daniels at quarterback for Washington and not Mario Ta. I do like McLaren this week. I'm just not counting on another 14 targets. Obviously, you know the Commanders have Debo Samuel and some other credible pass catchers including Traylon Burks apparently. And the Commanders have actually been the 8th run heaviest team in the league this season. So it's not like the, it's certainly not the norm for any Commander's quarterback to be dropping back 50 times. So yeah, McLaren's just a really hard guy to peg. I mean he had the great season in 2024, got off to a really slow start this year, then got hurts. I've no issues at all with a mid range wide receiver 2 ranking in ECR. I just for me it, it's just a matter of being above consensus on a few other guys I have ranked directly ahead of McLaurin, guys like Cortland, Sutton, T. Higgins. I'm projecting a comeback from the concussion and Michael Wilson since I'm kind of projecting Marvin Harrison to be out after limping around pretty badly last week.
- [26:13]
Chris Welsh
Interesting thing you said in there too. I'm. I'm on the opposite. I'm projecting Jane Daniels is not going to play. But if, if that is, if he does, that's it's still amazing if it happens. I kind of think we're still going to slow pace it, but I just thought that was interesting that you threw in that we might see Daniels. Eric oh, you go ahead Fitzy. If you have a I was just.
- [26:31]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Going to say he was close and I know a lot of people. The thinking is why would you bring him back in a lost season. But players play, man. It might be different if it, if it were week 16, week 17, but these guys just play and you know, they make a lot of money to play football.
- [26:48]
Chris Welsh
Yeah, 100%. And I'm not sure he's the type of guy that needs any special stuff. It's just been limited practices. He hasn't even been cleared for contact yet. So that's where I'm a little, you know, iffy, or at least that was of a couple days ago. But if that does happen, that that's a big boost for Zach Ertz. By the way, Erickson, you're a little bit more positive on Terry McClure and you have him inside the top 21 spot higher than ACR. What you thinking and does it matter which quarterback is that as behind center?
- [27:15]
Andrew Erickson
It probably does matter which quarterback it is, but I'm still not sure which stance I want to be on just because these backup quarterbacks are just helping so many, so many of these wide receivers at times when Mario Ta has played. The last couple times with McLaurin, McLaren's actually been pretty solid. So McLaurin didn't even play a full allotment of snaps and he was being hyper targeted by Mario Tuh. So I think that there's upside here against the Vikings. Right. Vikings as a whole, we know is a good defense. Right. But sometimes they can get beat because of how aggressive they are. They just the second happiest blitz team this season, actually the highest. They blitz on 50% of their defensive plays. Right, Right. So they're always bringing the heat. And Mariota has played really well against the blitz this season, actually better than Jaden Daniels. So if the vibes are good between Mariota and Terry McLaren, I kind of want to stay in the flames here a little bit and not necessarily put another quarterback back in. We know that Daniels and McLaren, because of the holdout and Daniel's injury, like they haven't had a lot of time really on the practice field together this year now. Not to say they don't have chemistry like we saw that all of 2024. So I think it's really just an upside play with Terry McLaurin. He came in, established himself back as the alpha in this offense. I think Deebo and Zach Ertz, I think those are the guys. I mean, how many catches did Zach Ertz have when the commanders threw 50 times last week? I mean that's probably going to regress with a guy like Zachary who, okay, we're not building the offense, we're not building the ship around a 36 year old tight end on the road against the Vikings. Like that's just not the game script. So and I would say too from the commanders can think about, yeah, we want to run the football against the Vikings. We've seen teams take advantage of the Minnesota defense on the ground this year, but considering it's their second game off of overtime, really emotional. Obviously a loss. Despite playing really, really well against the Broncos. Now on the road against the Vikings, if they give up points early on, we know their defense is not that good. Maybe they are in more of a trailing game script which causes more passing volume even if they do want to establish the run with their identity on offense. So I think McLaurin is still, I think he's, how to say a lock but I think he's good for like 8 to 10 targets in this game. And, and I like that type of upside against a very boomer bust defense with Flores that can give up big plays if the blitz doesn't hit.
- [29:30]
Chris Welsh
Let's do one more quick one in this one and it's, it's almost going to be kind of about the other player. But just want to talk about Jacob Myers. He's 23 on this list going up against the Colts ECR. You guys are both about like on target. But really I would love for you to also speak on Brian Thomas and Erickson, let's start with you. Jacoby Myers, like Brian Thomas downfall is, you know, his benefit. How much do you buy him as a wide receiver too? And how much is this indicative of Brian Thomas not being startable?
- [30:01]
Andrew Erickson
It's a loaded question. Well, very, very well put. Just trying to think about the best way to answer it. I'm not even sure this is answering your exact question. I just kind of, kind of read my notes. Here is Trevor Lawrence has found his new Christian Kirk and his name is Jacoby Myers. Right. This was something that I definitely overlooked. I think a lot of us overlooked in the offseason was that Brian Thomas Jr. Stylistically doesn't fit what Trevor Lawrence likes and what he does successfully on the football field. You look at the successful receivers in Trevor Lawrence's career with Jacksonville, Christian Kirk, Evan Ingram. So we're not really, we shouldn't be surprised that it's Bretton Strange and Jacoby Myers that who just showed up like three weeks ago and immediately when's the last time Brian Thomas caught all of his targets in a game? Jacoby Myers did it last week, 6 for 90 and a touchdown on 6 targets. Perfect 100 catch rate. I know Brian Thomas Jr's catch rate is nowhere near 100. It is not even close this season so I'm not trying to knock on the player of BTJ because I think that he's an uber talented player. What we saw when he did as a rookie, that, that is so impressive. But when Trevor Lawrence is his quarterback, he is not a fantasy asset. I want to start. I, I don't care who they're playing. Even though there's going to be no Sauce Gardner in this game, like it doesn't matter to me because he can't take advantage of Trevor Lawrence as the quarterback. So Jacoby Myers, for all intents and purposes, the wide receiver one in this Jaguars offense. Again, it took us three weeks for him to establish chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. We're still trying to get there with Brian Thomas Jr. Who's been on the team all year and, and last year too. So I don't think we need to overthink it here this year. Myers is the guy I'd rather have rest of season than Brian Thomas Jr. As the Jaguars number one wide receiver. And that's why he's a guy that I would start and not Brian Thomas.
- [31:41]
Chris Welsh
Jr. Yeah, so 50, same thing like Myers, comfortable wide receiver too. And Brian Thomas is not startable. Yay or nay.
- [31:50]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm going to say nay to that just because.
- [31:54]
So Parker Washington left last week's game with a hip injury. If he doesn't play, I think you could say that Brian Thomas Jr. Is still startable. Like I've got him ranked as a high end wide receiver 3. But I do have Jacoby Myers ranked higher. And you know, Erickson brings up the keyword chemistry. And we have not seen any chemistry at all between Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. And then Jacoby Myers shows up a month ago in Jacksonville. And the chemistry between T. Law and Jacoby Myers has been incredible. It's like Walter White and Jesse Pinkman together. And in four games with the Jaguars, Jacoby Myers has an 85.7% catch rate and is averaging 11.7 yards per target. And Myers, he only played 27 snaps in his first game with the Jags, had 41 yards in the three games since. He's averaging 68 receiving yards, touchdown catch in two of his last each of his last two games. So.
- [32:54]
Yeah, I mean, it all looks great with Jacoby Myers. I think he is basically already Trevor Lawrence's favorite receiver.
- [33:02]
Chris Welsh
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- [35:25]
Pat Fitzmaurice
3 It's a pretty low level of trust. It's been a tale of two seasons. He was.
- [35:32]
He scored five touchdowns over the first four weeks of the season and was wide receiver 12 in PPR points per game over the first eight eight weeks of the season. But since his 114 yard game against the Ravens in week eight, Roma Dunes has 13 catches for 188 yards and a touchdown over his last five games. He's wide receiver 60 in PPR fantasy points per game over that stretch. So 38.2% catch rate over his last five games.
- [36:00]
Andrew Erickson
It's.
- [36:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's been ugly. I guess I'm just still hoping that we see a return of the Romo Dunes. A was really productive for the first two months.
- [36:08]
Chris Welsh
Same thing. Erickson, what level of trust do you have in Roma Dunes A your rank is at easier at 27. I mean. I mean you got a lot of names are going to be above like are you in the semi advocating range that he is maybe someone you want to try to not start.
- [36:23]
Andrew Erickson
I think that's probably what my lean is. He's in wide receiver three territory so potentially and the two or start two wide receiver league. He's someone that you're probably looking at as like a flex play and it's probably someone that you can probably just try to go into another direction. Hasn't been good for him the last couple weeks. He's a 49 catch rate this season and we've seen this. This isn't any earth shaking analysis where the Bears passing and we still know it's kind of a work in progress like their run game looks unstoppable against any opponent they play. Their identity on offense is we want to run the football with our two stop running backs and it's just a tough spot going to Lambeau for second year quarterback and Odunze who's just been inconsistent right. He's had opportunities to score points but there have been times when him and Kaylin Williams just haven't been on the same page. They haven't connected. So I think there is a chance that he still scores a touchdown. Right. Because they do like to use him in the red zone. But you know what is the ceiling for the spares passing game against the packers on the road at Lambeau Field. Right. Like it's just not. It's not a great look for a quarterback that has been kind of struggling as a passer for the most part this season and recently. So I think he's someone that you could probably try to get away from.
- [37:30]
Chris Welsh
Chris Godwin, is he somebody we want to maybe start Investing back into ECR30 you guys are actually both a little bit lower, but we're starting to see the targets creep back in. There's also the news that popped out that the windows opening up for Mike Evans, that Mike Evans might be. I don't think it's necessarily this week or even next, but looming in there, Chris Godwin, 32. Erickson, you don't seem as optimistic and kind of in that same room. Is he in the same tier as Roma Dunes A? Is there any. I mean, I guess you have them lower, so there's no optimism. You tell us, talk to us about Chris Godwin.
- [38:04]
Andrew Erickson
It's not really about him more as it's about the matchup. Saints allowing the second fewest points per game to slot wide receivers this season. So, yes, Godwin led the team in receiving yards last week. A lot of that came on one really big play. He also dropped the touchdown. So, yes, if they look at him in the red zone again, okay, he can bounce back, he can score a touchdown. So can Roma Dunes. Right? So if you're just betting on touchdown and then who can also pile up the yards as well? I think that's why I have a Dunes A ahead of Godwin. Again, I don't particularly like either of them in their particular matchups. And Chris Godwin, look, maybe he's getting his legs underneath him. I think that he's looked a little bit better since, you know, first coming back from his injury. But he's an older wide receiver. He's dealt with a ton of injuries over the last couple years. He's. I think Odunze has just more juice, frankly, than Chris Godwin does at this point. And like I said, the matchup's not ideal. So I think he's. He's fine. But again, not someone that it's more like, okay, I gotta play Chris Godwin this week. Not, not like, oh, I get to play Chris Godwin this week. I'm just like, not like amped up to play him. This for week. Week 14.
- [39:06]
Chris Welsh
Well, Fitzy, I mean, it's a good matchup. It's a good matchup. He started to see the targets boost.
- [39:11]
Andrew Erickson
Up a little bit.
- [39:12]
Chris Welsh
I mean, you could argue week to week, if he's getting healthier. We know that Baker Mayfield like him the ball, but you also are really just kind of not buying into it.
- [39:20]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I don't think he's a foolproof play because of how good the Saints have been against the slot. But I do think Godwin is still like a reasonable wide receiver three or flex type option. Like he, he did look well. Other than that egregious drop of what should have been a touchdown, it could have been a really big game for Chris Godwin. Even though he only had five targets, three catches. But those catches went for 25, 31 and 22 yards. So he hit on some big plays and almost scored a touchdown. So viable for week 14 for sure. But something tells me we're going to be getting a lot of Chris Godwin starts hit questions on these Sunday live streams.
- [40:01]
Chris Welsh
Something tells me we are going to get 4 bajillion Adnai Mitchell questions and let's hit it right here. So if we can try to get to that. He is ECR wide receiver 32. He probably the top waiver claim Also I noted this on a couple different shows, but nobody had more air yards over the last two weeks than Adnai Mitchell. In fact, no one had even within 50 or 60 or 70. He had 80 more air yard air yards but it also equated into a massive bid breakout game. He's also averaged nine and a half targets over the last two games. He's a great route runner.
- [40:37]
Sponsor/Ad Voice
He's.
- [40:37]
Chris Welsh
He just has stone hands like and he was able to fix that this past week and actually catch the ball. So everybody kind of got to see that talent on display. People are picking him up on waivers and now people are going to want to know do I start Adnai Mitchell? Erickson, let's start with you. He's 32. You are a little bit higher. Fitz, he's a little bit lower. You guys both have him as a wide receiver 3. But you have and I Mitchell over Chris Godwin. So Erickson, are you going to be a heavy advocate of Adonai Mitchell starts in week 14?
- [41:10]
Andrew Erickson
I think I am. And the more I look at it and the names that we've talked about in this tier, it's like Adunze Godwin, we're going to talk about Jaden Higgins. Adonai Mitchell is the one. To me it's like shoot your shot. Like let's go. Like why can't Adonai Mitchell be the best receiver from this group here? We've seen it the last couple weeks like you said, the first two weeks with him with the New York jets again, Justin Fields in the first game against the Patriots, he's dropping passes the next game, first game with Torod Taylor, seeing all the air yards again but inefficient. And then it finally all comes together because we know that this guy's super talented. Like we just know he's kind of a knucklehead where he has that monster game for the Indianapolis Colts way back, I think, I think week four, week five against the Rams, he drops the touchdown and then that's it. His career in Indianapolis is essentially over. He gets traded to the jets as part of the SAS garter trade as a quote unquote throw in, with which the jets have pushed back on saying that, no, we wanted Adonai Mitchell because we know he's a super talented guy. Again, he was looked at as a first round pick out of Texas. Like, people thought that he should have been drafted ahead of Xavier Worthy. And I mean, who's better, right? I think both guys have a lot of talent, but you look at all the separation metrics, he's an elite separator. It's just a matter of you just got to squeeze the football, man. Like, you just got to finish the play. And last week he finally did that. He came through big. And in the jets win. Jets are facing the Dolphins this week. They're live to win this game. And remember, it's only this will be his third game with Torod Taylor as the quarterback on the team. So I think it took some time for. Hey, let's get our timing down. We know that Taylor likes to throw the ball downfield. He's done that throughout his entire career. He's got a really nice deep ball. Remember all those John Brown years, Just a ton of fun with Tyrod Taylor as the Bills quarterback. So I think stylistically he fits really well with his quarterback. What they're going to do. I think the matchup is fine against the Dolphins. I know that if you look at fantasy points per game, like, Dolphins aren't necessarily, like, giving it up to a lot of wide receivers, but that's just because teams have just elected to, like, run the football all over them. I don't think there's any corners on the Dolphins where I'm thinking, I don't know. I don't know if I can start Adam Mitchell against this Miami Dolphins cornerback, Russell Douglas. Like, I'm really afraid of him. So I think Mitchell's a super talented player. He's getting the targets. And I think for the first time all year, he's entering a game with a lot of confidence, right where no, I finally delivered a breakout game because I do believe that I'm a good wide receiver. And the separation metrics are now translating to actual production. So it also would surprise me if he continues to stay hot here, be the number one target for the New York jets as long as Garrett Wilson is out and I think Taylor's going to continue to pepper him with targets. Again, we're talking about Taylor as like a streaming quarterback this week. Well, if he's going to get it done, I think Mitchell's going to be along for the ride. So I'm going to move him up inside my top 30 for sure.
- [43:48]
Chris Welsh
Fitzy, you've got him at 35, so you do have him as a wide receiver three, but he's just teetering in there. Is your level of excitement in the same as Erickson or are you just a little, you have a little bit more hesitation because you know he's volatile. He's not great catching the ball as a wide receiver. It's also the jets offense, but it is a good matchup. What do you think about Adnai Mitchell?
- [44:08]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean Erickson mentioned how erratic or, you know, if he is kind of a knucklehead or whatever. We said the same thing about George Pickens when he was with the Steelers and George Pickens is having a pretty good season and man, when you watch him like Erickson was talking about that play where he, he dropped the ball at the goal line for the Colts, but the rest of that play where he snatches a contested catch away from Emmanuel Forbes and then outraces Emmanuel Forbes to the end zone. And Emmanuel Forbes ran a 4:3:5 at the combine. Like this guy is a freak athlete. AD Mitchell is. There's a reason he was talked about as a potential first round pick even though he never had a thousand yard season in college.
- [44:50]
And right now the jets kind of have a pretty tidy little operation as far as fantasy goes where it's just Breece hall owns the backfield and the targets, they're basically three guys. It's, it's Mitchell, it's Machi, it's Mason Taylor and that's about it. No one else really gets meaningful snaps or targets. Alan Lazard gets a couple of games. That's about it. And so yeah, right now I've got Troy Franklin ahead of him. I need to drop Troy Franklin. He got a snaps cut last week. He played 12 fewer snaps than Pat Bryant. And I mean, Troy Franklin was kind of splashing on the touchdown deodorant anyway this season. So I don't know, I think Mitchell's a better play this week and I've, I should maybe considering maybe consider moving AD Mitchell ahead of guys like Romeo Dobbs and Chris Godwin.
- [45:42]
Chris Welsh
All right, there you go. Those are your wide receiver threes. Top 36 wide receivers for the week. You guys want to follow along fantasypros.com rankings? You can see how the rankings kind of evolve throughout the week. You will probably see someone like Adnai Mitchell moving up a bit and we know that's going to create more questions for you. Well guess what, we got a start and sit live stream on YouTube where you can come and ask any of those specific start and sit questions. Thursdays 3:00pm Eastern so if you're on the podcast go to YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe, turn on notifications. Don't miss it. That's going to do it for Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice. I'm Chris Welsh. We'll talk to you next time.
- [46:16]
Andrew Erickson
Bye bye.
- [46:17]
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- [46:59]
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Ah.
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There. The last one.
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- [48:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
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- [48:35]
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