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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 15 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, and Must-Starts (Ep. 1890)
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- [00:00]
Chris Welsh
This is an Iheart podcast. Guaranteed human.
- [00:05]
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- [00:31]
Warning. This product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. What's up, friends? And welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the fantasy football podcast. And this is not just the week 15 wide receiver ranks. This is the playoff ranks episode. I'm Chris Welsh. We got Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitz, Morris with us. We're breaking down all the big top 36 wide receivers. All of your big decisions you've got to make this week. And Erickson, you said something prime before we started the show. Why don't you let everybody know what you think about this week's ranks versus where we've been all season, weeks one through 14.
- [01:07]
Andrew Erickson
It's great that some of us did well in the rankings competition, some of us didn't do as well. But none of that matters anymore. All that matters is weeks 15, 16, 17, nailing these rankings, getting you to move to your championship round and hopefully come away with a league winning roster this season. So locked in, laser focused, not trying to get too cute, but trusting the process at the same time. Looking forward to chopping up with you guys.
- [01:30]
Chris Welsh
Yeah, Fitzy. Mike Mayer walks in the room and goes, hey guys, I was a number 10 ranker. It doesn't matter.
- [01:36]
Andrew Erickson
We would just.
- [01:37]
Chris Welsh
We drop a. It doesn't matter because it's playoff time. We only care about the next three weeks. Fitzy, you're going to kill it.
- [01:43]
Podcast Host/Announcer
It's.
- [01:43]
Chris Welsh
It's go time. It's crunch time, man.
- [01:45]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It is. It is. Hopefully a lot of, a lot of our people are just kind of listening to this for sport because they have week 15 buys and they're waiting to play their first playoff game in Week 16. But it is a do or die week for a lot of people. We're playing do or die fantasy football now. It could be a one week season for a lot of people, so let's make it count in week 15.
- [02:06]
Chris Welsh
Also super underrated are bye weeks. Bye weeks are super underrated. I don't play in a ton of fantasy leagues that actually do bye weeks, but we've got my one home league and I got a buy and I'm just like, this rocks.
- [02:18]
Andrew Erickson
This is the best.
- [02:18]
Chris Welsh
I just forget about it. I just get to chill and just watch everybody else just like scramble. It's amazing. Hopefully we will help you not be scrambling and we're going to get you all the right decisions on what you're going to need to do with whiteouts because there are some, there's some big decisions. Whether you're guillotine it or you're just in your normal playoffs, we've got you covered as we're going to go through the top 36. Speaking of ranks, yes, we do care about, you know, what the playoff ranks are going to look like, but we continuously are tracking our ranks accuracy contest every single week we highlight the top three who finish from the previous week and then obviously that is going to lead to an end of season total this week.
- [02:56]
Andrew Erickson
Man.
- [02:56]
Chris Welsh
Justin Boone from Yahoo Fantasy Sports has been killing it and Justin finished number one in the number one spot for week 14. So shout out to Justin finishing, I believe very high so far in the overall contest. So Justin's killing it. Ricky, I want to say Lemon, but is that Limone? Is that Ricky Lemon from the Fantasy champions is number two. And then Michael Bobble from the 33rd team. Those are your top three with a shout out to Mike Mayer who comes in. He's like, who goes? I think, yeah, you finished 19th. Great job. Great. You keep doing it. It's annoying. Keep rocking it. Stop being so good. Mike Mayer, it's a playoffs. So now you need to really step it up as he has. He's finished 19th, you guys. We were all kind of median. I was the lowest of our of our group here. Nothing horrible or anything like that kind of in the upper echelon. So we will try to really, really kill it this week. As Erickson said, It's week 15. Let's roll with it. Before we start the race ranks, it is always giveaway time and we have got a crazy cool opportunity for you. If you want a chance to win a Bijan Robinson and Drake London sign mini helmet for free courtesy of our friends over at Pristine Auction. Here's what you got to do. Go to fantasypros.com contest, complete the form, then you can do some stuff. Download the app, leave a review on the podcast, follow us on x Instagram and TikTok and you can do all, all of those things. Each one is an entry and then we'll be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. So if you're watching on YouTube, make sure you are subscribed. Turn on notifications. You don't want to miss it. Bring home that Bijan and Drake London signed mini helmet for absolutely free. Gentlemen, for the people that want to follow along with us, they can go to fantasyprose.com rankings where they can find your rankings and all of the ecr. Here's the big board for the wide receivers in week 15. The top 12 with we've got Jackson, Smith and Jigba coming in at the number one spot. Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, Rasheed Rice, Devonte Adams and Nico Collins. That is your top six. The bottom half, George Pickens, Amanra St. Brown, A.J. brown, Jalen Waddle, Jameson Williams and Michael Wilson. A lot of chalk plays in there. I'm not trying to call him not chalk, but then you throw in Michael Wilson and it's one of those one thing does not feel like the other, but that thing that doesn't feel like the other has been performing just like all of the others and in some cases better than them. You two fine gentlemen are torn on this. You guys are in opposite directions. He is ECR 12. Fitzy, you have him at 12. So let's start there with you on the positive. Michael Wilson take for week 15.
- [05:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm ranking him as if Marvin Harrison Jr. Won't be back as of now, and the matchup against the Texans is brutal. But Michael Wilson has had 18, 15 and 16 targets in the three games Marvin Harrison Jr. Has missed, and he's had 10 or more catches and 118 or more yards in all of them. So while I do have expectations of less than 10 catches and 118 yards, I still think he's going to be targeted heavily and you know, should be good, a pretty good volume play for week 15.
- [06:10]
Chris Welsh
So I wonder, Erickson, does it matter if Marvin Harrison plays at all? Maybe that is what your rank is about because you've, you've kind of buried him comparatively. This is the end of wide receiver. One, you've got him just hugging in as a wide receiver. Two, you got him at wide receiver 21. Is Stingley more of a concern than Marvin Harrison being active or is it a combination? What's with the buried Michael Wilson rank?
- [06:33]
Andrew Erickson
The matchup is definitely the number one reason, because I don't think that this is just a bad matchup. This is the worst matchup and we've seen quarterbacks far superior to Jacoby Brissette face this Texans defense and look terrible. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and something you want to note here is the Cardinals are going to be without their starting left tackle, Paris Johnson Jr. In this game against that Texans defensive line Look, Jacoby has been a great story this year with the amount of garbage time that he's been able to give us as fantasy managers. But I'm concerned that this is where clock strikes midnight on this type of production where he's just dropping back 50, 55 times per game, getting all this garbage time stats and it doesn't come to fruition here. I mean, there's a reason why this week Jacoby Brissette's not a top 12 quarterback in ECR because he's facing the Texans, although he's always been in that top 12 range when Michael Wilson has had a lot of these big games. So that's a big concern for me, Marvin Harrison Jr. Playing if he is active in this game. We saw the one game over the last four where he was active and Michael Wilson was wide receiver 49 on the week here. So if anything it makes it really easy I think for fantasy managers if Marvin Harrison plays, you just don't play Michael Wilson because then you don't have the target volume and then you're combining that with the really poor matchup. So that's kind of what I'm viewing it here. And when you look at Michael Wilson in his worst game Without Marvin Harrison Jr. He was wide receiver 13 against the Jaguars. He didn't score in that particular matchup, still had 10 catches for 118 yards as a wide receiver 13. So I could see a play where it is volume on his side. But just given I think his efficiency is probably going to fall off substantially against the Texans. I have him more in that Wide Receiver 2 territory. So again, he's still someone that you're probably going to start if Marvin Harrison Jr. Is out. But I'm just trying to temper expectations because of the brutal matchup.
- [08:21]
Chris Welsh
Can I ask, do you think there's a possibility that there's a better opportunity if Marvin Harrison is active? If you're so worried about the Stingley situation, could Stingley lock up Harrison creating a better opportunity for Michael Wilson? Or do you think Stingley is going to lock up on Wilson if Harrison is active?
- [08:38]
Andrew Erickson
I think that it's bad regardless because last year is really good number quarter number two cornerback too. It's not just one guy that makes this Texans defense be so elite, it's all of their players. So yeah, I, I just have very a lot of concerns about the matchup.
- [08:55]
Chris Welsh
One thing I just wanted to throw this in before we jump out. We tend to not spend a lot of time obviously on the wide receiver ones because they're Pretty easy discussion pieces. We were randomly having this discussion off air and I just want to get your takes like a versus here. We're talking about A.J. brown versus Jaylen Waddle. But also just do like a side throw in here of Jameson Williams when you're looking at those three. Fitzy, if you. How are you ranking out those three? Because in also a world of like who is not like the other. There's definitely a drop after a Monroe St. Brown. It's like, okay, there's these guys that have some warts at least. Obviously A.J. brown is, you know, been about his quarterback in his offense. Jameson Williams with Amon Ra and Jalen Waddle just feels a little bit uncomfortable at Pittsburgh. Like is there a level of comfort of one of those three more than the other?
- [09:46]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No. I've got A.J. brown, wide receiver 9, Jameson Williams, wide receiver 10, Jalen Waddle, wide receiver 11. Not much.
- [09:53]
Chris Welsh
So there's no, there's no standouts. Erickson, is there any standout between those three for you either?
- [09:58]
Andrew Erickson
I have them in the same order as Fitz, although I have Brown at 9, Williams at 11 and Waddle at 13. So I'm feeling a little bit more confident of the RA that Fitz also has listed out. And that's because AJ Brown is on a heater. Three straight 100 yard games. They're facing the Raiders. This is a prime get right spot for the Eagles offense. What does that actually mean? I don't know, but I think it means that maybe they improve a little bit from what we saw on Monday Night Football where Jalen Hurts was scoring as many negative points as you could humanly do for a fantasy quarterback. Waddle does a little bit concern me with Tua. Playing outside two is just. I mean, he's not the reason the Dolphins have been winning games the last couple weeks. So that concerns about him playing on the road at Pittsburgh at night in a primetime game. And then Jamison Williams is. What is the total in that game? 56 points. Jameson Williams in a dome. You just got to click the button on him because his upside is immense and that's a particular matchup that could be a monster shootout.
- [10:57]
Chris Welsh
All right, so let's jump out of the wide receiver ones. Those are your core players. You're not making too much about them. You're getting them in wide receiver twos kind of. It lives in the same world, but there are going to be some bigger questions, especially in the tiers. So let's look at wide receivers 13 through 24 on the list starting at 13 with Teteroa McMillan, Chris Olave at 14, Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson at 16, DeVonta Smith, Wandell Robinson, Zay Flowers, Jacoby Myers at 20, followed by Stefan Diggs, DK Metcalf, Lad McConkey and Juwan Jennings. We have to talk about Justin Jefferson. Here are some numbers for you. 2 for 11, 2 for 4, 4 for 48, 5 for 61, 4 for 37. Those are his game logs over the last five weeks in half PPR. These numbers, 81, 95, 38, 27 and 44. Those gentlemen are the wide receiver finishes in half PPR he has had over the last five weeks. Justin Jefferson is lost in this offense. Brosmer makes it worse. McCarthy, even when scoring 31 points and blowing out teams, had two catches, four targets to Justin Jefferson. This is an elite matchup, no doubt against the Dallas Cowboys. Let's not argue that. But I have lost a level of confidence in this offense and J.J. mcCarthy, whether they're winning or he looks good or not in being able to get him the ball. So wide receiver 16 even still feels dicey. I feel like the only reason he is here is because we have that versus Dallas over on the right hand corner. So Fitz, why don't we start with you here. You guys are both at or higher than consensus now. Consensus is low, but I think there's going to be a lot of questions surrounded it. We did tons of Titanic conversation last week. Maybe we're still in that space but regardless if we are, the boat sank a little bit more because two catches for 11 yards on a blowout win for the Vikings without him involved should create bigger questions. But you've got them at 16 fits.
- [13:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, and it's certainly not a confident ranking. Welsh. I mean no touchdowns in the last five games for Justin Jefferson hasn't had a 100 yard game or for that matter in 80 yard game since October 5th. And at least he was getting targets a little while ago. But now like the target counts are even starting to come down like six, six and four in his last three games. So yeah, I mean we're just not feeling great about the quarterback situation with J.J. mcCarthy. Although the matchup against Dallas is at least promising this week, I feel like there's still a big game for Justin Jefferson coming. And hopefully to the people who were able to stagger their way into the playoffs with Justin Jefferson having this massively disappointing season, they get it this week because the matchup is good. And it's just I'm looking at the guys who I have ranked right Below Justin Jefferson, Wondale Robinson, Devonte Smith, Jacoby Myers, Terry McLaurin. Like, I still fundamentally think Justin Jefferson, even with bad QB play is a better start than those guys.
- [14:12]
Chris Welsh
Jacoby Mario's got the jets four star matchup. Wanda Robinson has the Washington Commanders, one of the worst secondaries in football that Justin Jefferson could only get two catches off of.
- [14:21]
Podcast Host/Announcer
Clear.
- [14:21]
Chris Welsh
You can see like I'm in. I'm annoyed with it. We had a big thing on out of bounds on Monday where me and Bob, I think we're looking at a point if it wasn't the Dallas Cowboys, Justin Jefferson would be no better than a wide receiver. 3 At this point I agree the namesakes behind Justin Jefferson are like, oh, but Jefferson didn't do anything against the Commanders. So now you got a Dallas Cowboy situation. Erickson, you've got him higher. I get it and I get that logic of like, he's just so talented. A game has to happen. Let's put 1 through 15 behind us and stuff like that. But if you were legitimately having the decision between a Wanda Robinson and Justin Jefferson, it's a slam dunk. Jefferson for you.
- [14:58]
Andrew Erickson
I don't know if I would say it's a slam dunk, but one of them is facing the Dallas Cowboys and one of them isn't Dallas.
- [15:05]
Chris Welsh
The other one's facing the Commanders.
- [15:07]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, we just saw Jefferson do nothing against the Commanders. So I'm going to go with the best matchup. Again. This is, you know, we, we sometimes try to push back when we overvalue certain matchups, but when it comes to the very ends of the spectrum, whether you're talking about the Houston Texans, nobody can score on this defense. The versus side of that is the Dallas Cowboys. Every wide receiver scores on this defense. Jameson Williams, Amar St. Brown last week, monster, monster games. So I think that you just gotta play Jefferson. Obviously it depends on what your alternatives are, but you didn't go through the last couple weeks of absolutely no production. It's so funny. He has 15 receiving yards, which is almost the exact same as his ECR ranking this week over the last two games.
- [15:55]
It's almost so bad that it's comical that he has to bounce back and just regress a little bit positively just because of how low it has been for him. So I think that at least positive McCarthy didn't play bad against the Commanders. I mean, it's just kind of unlucky, right? Josh Oliver caught two touchdowns. What if that had been Jefferson instead? So I think that McCarthy may be building some momentum after a positive game against the Commanders. He played better. Good Dallas matchup. You didn't go through all the tough games for Jefferson to then sit him against the number one defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. So I agree with Fitz. I think you have to play him as a wide receiver too.
- [16:30]
Chris Welsh
This is as I have a lot of shares of Justin Jefferson and a few of those actually did make the playoffs. I just feel dicey about it. But I think the most important thing, regardless of my like negativity to it, it is always about the options. And I think when you ask the questions of really you can't ask the Jacoby Myers, the Wanda Robinsons or Terry McLaren's. I think you can still push to Jefferson. It's when people are going to be like, hey, should I go deebo over him? Or Brian Thomas? And it's like, no, let's not go crazy. It is a phenomenal matchup. He's talented. You would just love for them to get him the ball. But I do expect there's going to be quite a few questions surrounded around Justin Jefferson. How about around Zay Flowers? Zay Flowers comes in as ECR wide receiver 19 going up against the Cincinnati Bengals and both of you fine gentlemen are actually slightly lower. Erickson, why don't we start with you? What's your take on Zay Flowers as a start this week?
- [17:19]
Andrew Erickson
So Zay Flowers is one of these wide receivers that I think is always overvalued in ecr and even I'm looking at the screenshot in the show sheet. You look at how often he's gone over his projection. Four times he has gone over of his last 16 games he's gone over his projection. So looks good on paper doesn't always translate to on the field production coming off a big game. But we've already seen this matchup against the Bengals a couple weeks ago. Bengals don't give up a lot of production to number one wide receivers. So Zay Flowers did have that long touchdown taken off due to a penalty. But I think that he's more of a middling wide receiver too. In this offense we know how you attack the Cincinnati Bengals, Derrick Henry and the tight ends. Not exactly the recipe for Zay Flower Smash. Again, a player that sees too much volume in his offense, offers a decent floor because he's a really good player, can rate yards out to the catch. But is this going to be a Zay Flowers back to back Smash week? I don't think so, which is why I have him more in the lower end of the wide receiver 2 range a little bit lower than ECR.
- [18:22]
Chris Welsh
Yeah, Fitzy, he actually kind of has been a little. There's that inconsistency where it's like smash and then disappear. Are you worried of a disappearing act for Zay Flowers this week?
- [18:31]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I'm not worried about the disappearing act. I'm worried more about the lack of ceiling because.
- [18:39]
Like actually. So Zay hasn't scored a touchdown since week one and that's a big reason he hasn't given us much of a ceiling. But he is on pace for 1165 yards and he has given you at least a little something most weeks. There have only been three times this season where he hasn't given you double digit PPR points. So one of those times was Thanksgiving night against the Bengals. Two catches for six yards. And the Bengals have, believe it or not, allowed the six fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year. And as Erickson said, they do pretty much blanket number one receivers or have this season. But are we really going to shy away from this matchup for Zay Flowers in a game with a Vegas Total of 52 points? I tend to think not. The market kind of expects a lot of offense in this game and so do I.
- [19:32]
Chris Welsh
This is a love revenge narrative. That's my favorite thing. I'm always down for a revenge narrative. And how about a Stefan Diggs revenge narrative? It'd be cool if he was like doing a whole bunch of stuff leading up to this as well, but that's not necessarily happening. He's ECR 21. Erickson, you got him at 18. You're higher. But Fitz, you are much higher. Fitz, are you buying revenge narrative for Stefon Diggs in this really tough Buffalo matchup? Do you think there's some expected snow? For better or for worse, offensively that can go. What is your take on Stefan Diggs at wide receiver 15 this week?
- [20:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, I'll have to check the weather report and if I'm not really concerned about snow, I think it's wind that's the issue. That would be a little scary, but yeah, revenge game, baby. You said it Welsh. When when Diggs went up against the Bills In Week 5, he had 10 catches for 146 yards on 12 targets. And those were the most targets, catches and receiving yards Diggs has had in any game this season. And I know he's laid eggs the last couple of weeks. 2 catches for 20 yards against the Bengals, 3 catches for 26 yards against the Giants. But I wouldn't hesitate to start Diggs this week.
- [20:39]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, would you have any hesitation? You are higher than ecr, a little bit lower than Fitzy. What's your take on Stefon Diggs versus his old team?
- [20:48]
Andrew Erickson
Imagine benching Stefan Diggs in revenge game part two. You just can't do it. You have to play Diggs. It doesn't matter what he's done over the last couple weeks. I know the production has kind of tailed off after it looked like he was on the ascension of being a locked and loaded wide receiver. One rest of season. I will say to the way that the Bills play defense, this is going to be a bad game for Hunter Henry. So if the targets are flowing elsewhere, they're going to look to Stefan Diggs who had a smash game in his first match against Buffalo and that was because he had a 40% target share and he didn't score in that game and they were trying everything in their power to try to get him into the end zone, which he did not do against the Buffalo Bills. So I think that this is a great spot for Stevon Diggs and the upside is too high to leave him on benches.
- [21:34]
Chris Welsh
One more wide receiver is wide receiver 24 Juan Jennings ECR 24. You guys are not crazy far apart, but you are in different ends of the type of wide receiver. Fitz, he's got him as a wide receiver. Two a little bit higher than ecr. Erickson, you've got him outside. It's a good matchup. He's been okay. I mean some of the touchdown equity has saved him that off. I mean Brock Purdy's just been really bad and I, I think the offense is also inconsistent. You know, Pierce hall doesn't exist. They just don't have a guy that they give mass volume to. So I think there's a level of uncomfortability with a guy like Juwan Jennings. Erickson, what do you think? You've got him at 26. You've got him as like a higher end wide receiver 3 at this point.
- [22:16]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, he feels safe like a good play as a wide receiver. 3. Like you said, good matchup against the Tennessee Titans. He's had a real connection with Brock Purdy getting back to last season. He's been the target leader for the 49ers among the wide receivers in the last seven games. I guess just in the back of my mind I still think that they are going to try to get Pierce hall going in some capacity especially as hey, we're trying to make the playoffs, we want to make a playoff run. We're coming out of the bye week. Pearsall's been dealing with a plethora of injuries. So would it be really shocking if we come out and oh, Piersall and Juwan Jennings had the same amount of targets in this game against the Tennessee Titans? Like that wouldn't be too shocking for me. So that's why I'm just a couple spots down on Jennings. Again, if you're going to start one of these 49 receivers, you have to start Jennings because he has been the guy. But when we're talking about these guys next week, it wouldn't surprise you. Maybe we're ranking them a little bit closer given that the 49ers also have a pretty favorable schedule rest of the way.
- [23:08]
Chris Welsh
Fitzy, what do you think about Juwan Jennings in this matchup? I kind of agree. Coming off of a buy, I feel like you got to get Ricky Pierasol going. But this offense, it runs for Christian McCaffrey, it goes to George Kittle and it's just like median volume to whatever wide receivers are involved. But this is like a really solid matchup.
- [23:26]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Peirsol did have a similar amount of targets as Juwan Jennings or even outproduced them. But I am still sort of. If I have Juwan Jennings, I am a little encouraged that Ricky Pearsall has done nothing to this point. So like that it's not a reason to shy away from Jennings. I shied away from drafting Juwan Jennings. Like I don't have him in any league because of Ricky Piersol. But if you have Jennings now, I don't think Piersol is a reason not to play Jennings. And look, Jennings has had four touchdowns in his last five games and he's had at least four catches in seven straight games. So even if the touchdowns aren't coming, there's a reasonable floor here that he's not going to just throw up a donut for you. Favorable matchup against the Titans. They've allowed the sixth most receiving yards to wide receivers. 49ers have an implied point total of something like 28 in this game. I just, I like the spot for Juwan.
- [24:25]
Chris Welsh
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Chris Welsh
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Andrew Erickson
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Chris Welsh
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Andrew Erickson
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- [27:44]
Chris Welsh
Wide Receiver Threes Coming up on the big board at number 25 is a Mecca Egbuca. Coming in at 26, Christian Watson, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman. At 3031 through 36, we've got Brian Thomas Jr. Khalil Shakir, Alec Pierce, Luther Burden, Jordan Addison and Jerry Judy. Can we trust a Mecca Igbuka? He comes in at wide receiver 25 deep balls have not been there. Mike Evans is looming, Chris Godwin getting healthy, more ammunition for this offense and it just does not center around a Mecca Igbuka anymore. And this is, you know, led to him being a wide receiver three on this list. Fitz, he's about on cue, but Erickson, you are a lot more bullish. You've got him at 19 and a solid wide receiver too here. So why don't you kick us off? I asked the question can you trust a Mech Egbuca is 19 representative of the level of trust?
- [28:37]
Andrew Erickson
Yes, it is. And for those that tuned into the prediction show with myself and Worm, that was my top prediction this week was Igbuka was going to finish as a top 20 wide receiver regardless of the status of Mike Evans. And the latest news that we're getting here is that looks like Mike Evans is probably going to play on Thursday night. That's what Todd Bowles said saying that hey, he's seen enough for Mike Evans. And I kind of think this might help Ebuka a little bit because the issue with him has not been volume, right? You look at the target numbers he's seen over the last seven games. He has a 29 target share in his last seven games. So it's not for a lack of opportunities. It's he hasn't been converting, he has not been efficient. Now part of that's on him. Dropped a touchdown last week. He's had plays wiped off because of penalties. Baker Mayfield has Also not been that good over the last couple games as well. But this is a matchup. We've already seen him play with Mike Evans healthy in the lineup. Back in week one, he had two receiving touchdowns and 67 receiving yards. We're playing for upside in the fantasy championships and Igbuka has shown this year, hey, I have top five weekly upside. And specifically in this matchup, we've already seen it play out. So with Mike Evans back in the lineup, I would expect like we saw in week one, he's going to grab shadow coverage from A.J. terrell. And that means you're going to see Egbuka get more of these favorable matchups against some of these weaker corners on the Atlanta Falcons. That should help boost his efficiency and that should help him convert some of this opportunity into actual production. So the coaches have been talking about Egbuka a lot this week. Josh Gizzard has been talking about, hey, we need to get him going early. We need to build his confidence. Same thing with Todd Bowles. And that's from the Coach Speak Index Discord. So I think that his upside is too great to leave on the bench this weekend, which is why I like him as a top 20. You just look at the matchup. The Falcons have been one of the worst teams against fantasy wide receivers this year. So I understand it's been bad, but the volume has been there, the opportunity has been there and that's what we're always chasing. Right? You chase volume. So I don't think Ibuka is nearly as bad of a player as he's shown over the last seven weeks. I know it's been really bad, but I want to go back to him this week.
- [30:36]
Chris Welsh
Fitzy, I don't know, does your level of trust exist? Because technically, you know, we talked about Juan Jennings. He's a four catch, you know, floor type of guy with probably not a lot of ceiling. And you've got him higher. You've got Joanne Jennings higher than a mecha Ibuka this week. So by virtue of that, I kind of feel like you are. You are just concerned about his overall production.
- [30:56]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah.
- [30:59]
So the targets have been there since week seven. Ibuka has averaged 9.7 targets a game with at least eight targets in all seven games over that span. And I don't worry that much. Like, I don't think the targets are going to dry up completely with Mike Evans back. And to Ericsson's point, maybe Mike Evans does occupy AJ Terrell in this game. Although I don't even know if AJ Terrell plays I think he's got some sort of neck issue and was just sort of a limited participant in their walkthrough the other day. So the issue for me with Ibuka is that he has caught 39.7% of his targets and has averaged 5 yards per target over his last seven games or since week seven. Yeah, seven games. So he's had some drops. But maybe the Buccaneers passing game does become more functional if Mike Evans is back this week against the Falcons. Because really, it's been pretty dysfunctional for a while now, and that's as much on Baker Mayfield as it is on a bucket or any of the other parts. You know, Tristan Worse hasn't been totally healthy. That's a big thing. So we'll see. I think Mike Evans can only help, and I don't consider that a major reason not to start a booker if you're on the fence with them this week.
- [32:17]
Chris Welsh
Is there any major reason to not start Christian Watson? Christian Watson comes in at 26. That reason might be the Denver Broncos, obviously. They got Jalen, they got Reed back. They've got kind of a Ericsson lovingly used Plethora, by the way, which immediately made me think of three amigos and want to do the three amigos bit, which I think Fitz, you could probably appreciate. But they've just got a whole bunch of wide receivers. Christian Watson has been the guy. But is Denver a place that you should be worried about? The starts of Christian Watson? Fitzy, why don't we start with you? You've got him at 26, Ericsson's one spot higher. But is Christian Watson more of a concerned start than he has been in the previous weeks going up against the Broncos?
- [32:58]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, definitely because of that matchup. And Christian Watson just had really nice games against the Lions and Bears. And the Lions have allowed the 2nd most passing plays of 20 or more yards this season. Bears have allowed the 3rd most passing plays of 20or more yards. Denver Broncos have a lot of the fifth fewest completions of 20 or more yards. So this is a really tough matchup. But look, I mean, it's, it's Christian Watson doing this on big plays, not so much his target volume. He said five touchdowns over his last four games, 18.1 yards per catch on the season, 11.7 yards per target, big plays, efficiency. I just don't know if you can live on big plays against the Denver pass defense, which is terrific.
- [33:45]
Chris Welsh
Erickson, can he live off of any big plays? I mean, I like the volume. I want the volume. And he kind of lacks that. So when you get like a really tough matchup like this, it's also going to take away big plays and there isn't any perceived volume. He seems riskier than he does in any like normal week for sure.
- [34:01]
Andrew Erickson
And when you just look at the game logs for Christian Watson to Fitz's point, awesome against the Bears, awesome against the Lions Vikings Tougher matchup Wide receiver 36 Giants Wide receiver 5 awesome Eagles Wide receiver 46 so there's a clear pattern of when he's ripping off these explosive plays. Obviously part of that is on him and how well he has been playing in these positive matchups. But we have to use this to our advantage, right? He's been really easy to tell big game for Christian Watson based on good matchups, bad game for Christian Watson, bad matchups and playing at Denver, that's always going to be a tough draw for any wide receiver. So I think when I opened up my rankings this week, I was trying to give credit to Christian Watson based on how well he has looked and played, how explosive he's been. But. But the facts are the facts. He had four targets last week and somehow got over 80 receiving yards, right? That is not sustainable. It's crazy when you look at him compared to Egbuca who I do have ranked and so does ECR ahead of Christian Watson, which seems absolutely ludicrous because of how well they have or how well they the how different they have been in terms of production. Christian Watson is wide receiver 16 in points per game since Week 8. He's wide receiver 41 and expected points per game, whereas Egbuca is outside the top 40 in points per game. But he's wide receiver three and expected points per game. So one of them is getting all the usage, no production. And then Watson is kind of the reverse of that. So eventually things are going to come to a regression with him. And I think that this is probably the spot where things maybe come back down to earth a little bit for Christian Watson. So I still think he has upside because of the play that he can offer, but I think it's more like maybe he rips off one big play and if he doesn't find the end zone, he's probably end up closer to a wide receiver three than a top 15 guy that he's been the last two weeks.
- [35:46]
Chris Welsh
We do a couple shows over on Twitch as well if people don't check them out. Twitch TV fantasypros and I have been on both the Monday and the Tuesday show and one of the most common things that has popped up after the words Philip and Rivers has been Alec and Pierce. And there's, there's a big concern. I mean, I think there's a general concern. I just want to throw out about all of the guys. You know, I'm just kind of cherry picking Alec Pierce here. But I think the reason his name has come up so much is an expectation that old man Rivers is going to come in and not sling the ball. Like this is going to be like a lot of short yard stuff. And Alec Pierce thrives off of that deep ball on the corners. And you're probably going to see Philip Rivers a lot of dump offs to Tyler Warren, which is when we talk about the tight end episodes. I still like Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, maybe Pittman, but it seems like Alec Pierce is the biggest concern of any of these players. And then on top of it, Seattle Seahawks this week. So Alec Pierce comes in as wide receiver 33. You both have him lower. Erickson, you are the absolute lowest. Fitzy is just squeaking him in as a wide receiver 3. Erickson is Alec Pierce just a massive avoid moving forward, especially until, I mean, I know there's not a whole lot of, you know, wait till next week. Like you got to survive the next week. But I think that's why you have to bench him because you don't know what it's going to look like with Rivers. And if you have him and you move on and it is a thing, then we can talk about it. But at this point, it just does not seem like a play with Rivers.
- [37:19]
Andrew Erickson
In that offense doesn't seem worth the risk. I play Alec Pierce when we have no idea what his quarterback is going to look like. Who hasn't played football in five years, right? This isn't the Joe Flacco thing where at least he played one year ago and then they picked him up off the couch. They don't even know what kind of shape Philip Rivers is in. How many hits can he even take behind that Colts offensive line? Does he even finish the game? Like that is a big concern for me, for Philip Rivers. I was a little bit more optimistic about the Colts offense if it was going to be Riley Leonard, because I thought that he showed some signs of okay, like maybe he can do this. He can move around more in the pot or in the pocket. Can Philip Rivers move? Like, is he going to be a sitting duck back there? So that has major concerns for me. So I'm trying to get away from as many Colts not named Jonathan Taylor as I can because I Asked the question what is the upside case with Alex Pierce? Oh, maybe he catches a long touchdown. Okay. I can list off 15 other wide receivers that I hope can maybe catch a long touchdown that aren't attached to 44 year old quarterbacks who haven't played in five years. So yeah, I mean you could drop Alec Pierce. You. I would rather have someone start him against me than have me started in my lineup. So that's the way I see it.
- [38:34]
Chris Welsh
Yeah. I mean I think you can look at like guys that are ranked below him at this point. Like Jaden Higgins has that type of case on Booty. I mean literally, dude, K Shawn Booty is literal. Like 50 yard, like two catches, one's 50 yard for a touchdown. That's the Alec Pierce play and that's with Drake May and he's ranked 44. So I'm in agreement here. Quick follow up and then to Fitz, they haven't like confirmed confirmed. It looks like Phillip is going to go. But if Riley Leonard were to play, do you like what's different about this? Is it still like we can still cut him? Because you said you have a little bit of optimism. So if Riley Leonard were there, would it be like, well, maybe he is a wide receiver 3 or is it still let's just move forward with cutting him and let's, let's go with K Sean Booty. Let's. I mean Ricky Piersoll's wide receiver 46. Would you rather go with all that upside?
- [39:21]
Andrew Erickson
I think I'd rather chase upside. I don't see that attached with a Colts offense that we saw them all last year with subpar quarterback play and it was a utter disaster. Daniel Jones fixed everything and now he's out of the picture. So why is we, why are we not just going to go back to The Colts offensive 20, 20, 24 when none of these guys were usable in any capacity. So I feel like one week at Seattle, it's going to be a slap in the face of reality where, wow, we can't use any of these guys rest of season. And I'm trying to get ahead of it by not bombing in my first round of the fantasy playoffs by relying on Colts pass catchers when the other thing is too. It's not like one guy is the alpha. They like to spread the football around to four different players at times and that's what makes it so tough. So even if one of the guys is productive, one guy maybe scores a touchdown. Are you so confident that it's going to be Pittman or Pierce or Warren or downs or Jonathan Taylor. Like who's going to score the touchdown if they even find the end zone against Seattle, one of the best defenses in the NFL on the road.
- [40:23]
Chris Welsh
Fitz, you know, by the way, the very first play of the game is going to be a play action. Jonathan Taylor and a 50 yard bomb to Alec Pierce. Now just that we're talking about all this but Fitz, you do have him inside as a wide receiver three at 35. So you know the conversation we just had, where do you differ or do you kind of stand in the same space but you just. He's Alec a little too talented to throw aside.
- [40:46]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I dropped him to wide receiver 38 this morning and that is still feeling too high. Like I'm right now I have him one spot ahead of Jaden Higgins and I'm, I'm looking at that and, and thinking, no, that's, that's not right. I'm probably going to have him outside the top 40 by the time we hit the weekend.
- [41:05]
Andrew Erickson
Okay, so.
- [41:06]
Chris Welsh
And then I'm guessing you.
- [41:07]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean it's cosign big player bust and Philip Rivers is not really a deep ball artist. So your chances of getting the big player probably worse than they are with Riley Leonard.
- [41:19]
Chris Welsh
All right, there you go. Those are your wide receivers. There could be lots more questions for you and that's why we got you covered. Check out the live streams 3pm Eastern on Thursday. If you've got more start and sit questions, it's playoff time. It's more critical than ever. If you're listening on the podcast, go to YouTube.com fantasypro subscribe, click on notification. Be there for the live streams. It's playoffs, baby. Doesn't matter where we were. It matters where we're going. We're going to help get you there. Wide receiver ranks in the books For Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice, I'm Chris Welch. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us and good luck in your playoff matchups. We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
- [41:54]
Podcast Host/Announcer
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts and at fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasy pros.
- [42:37]
Chris Welsh
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- [43:02]
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- [44:08]
What a matchup we got y'.
- [44:10]
Pat Fitzmaurice
All.
- [44:10]
Chris Welsh
This is that classic HBCU vibe. Nonstop action, the band is rocking and the crowd lit. Chance echo drum beat everybody showing that school pride. Game like this. Yeah, it calls for an ice cold Coca Cola. Ah, crisp and refreshing. That's a game changer right there.
- [44:30]
Yeah, that taste always hits the right note. Just like the band at halftime. And just like that, we're back at it. Passionate fans, school colors every everywhere and in ice cold Coca Cola. That's a winning combo no matter the sport, no matter the yard. Everybody knows fan work is thirsty work. So grab a Coca Cola and keep that HBCU pride going.
- [44:55]
Pat Fitzmaurice
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [44:57]
Podcast Host/Announcer
Guaranteed Human.