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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 15 Lineup Advice: Starts, Sits, Player Debates, and TD Calls (Ep. 1893)
01:05:38
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- [00:00]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human Fantasy Pro's fantasy football podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you work as a maintenance manager, your facility is your home turf and your home field advantage is having a partner like Grainger. They offer trusted professional grade products for every industry from lighting and electrical to safety and everything in between. Plus fast, dependable delivery. Which is why they always come through in the clutch. Just like you. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Thursday by Pat Fitzmaurice and by Jake Seeley from the Athletic. We are into the fantasy playoffs, guys. We have made it. Just three weeks left for pretty much every league out there. We are here into the first round of the postseason. Quick reminder just for everybody, all of our 2025 consecutive consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings. Fitz, how is your, I hate to use the word portfolio, but your portfolio looking? You know, throughout this year, how many leagues were you in that you made the playoffs in? How many buys did you get? What's your kind of overall landscape looking like going into the playoffs here?
- [01:15]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, so I have what I consider to be five home leagues and I was a perfect five for five in those and have four buys in the home league. So that was really good. And then in the analyst leagues, it's more of a mix, more of a representative sample where I've made the playoffs and probably what, 40 to 50% and yeah, and I'm playing in a number, an annoying number of consolation brackets. The leagues where you don't make it. Like, it seems like I'm in way too many leagues that have consolation brackets and I think they're completely stupid. How do you guys feel about them?
- [01:54]
Ryan Warmley
Very anti. I.
- [01:56]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's just, it's a relic from a time when people had typically one fantasy team and like, oh yeah, we got to make sure people get their, get their fill and play 16 or 17 weeks. Like, I don't care, man, maybe like 10% of my teams that don't make the playoffs. Like, I want to keep playing and you know, feel like I was jobbed and want to like beat up on people a few more weeks. But most of the time it's just like put me out of my misery, man. I don't want to keep setting this lineup with this roster if it's like.
- [02:26]
Ryan Warmley
If it's like Dynasty Related like it has to do with how you get you do rookie picks like I, it wouldn't be the way I did it but I'm more okay with that. But yeah like a a regular redraft league. I'm like yeah I do I'm in so many other leagues. Let me just focus on the ones that actually matter at this point. So I, I I'm with you. I I I made the playoffs in I think it was 11 out of my 14 leagues and I had four buys. It was one of my stronger years in a while. That's a higher percentage obviously than than than I would usually get but it was a, it was a strong year on my end. Ironically one of the three leagues I did not make the playoffs in I had I think it was like the third most points scored that year out of 12 teams and I just had horrible luck and did not make the postseason so that one was was frustrating to not get there. What about you Jake?
- [03:10]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I would say 50ish percent I'm trying like I was looking off top of my head. I was too busy looking up the fact that Fitz needs to chase down Matthew Berry and best ball the flex league he's back by 120. Fitz is always in contention that one. I'm third to last. I started that draft by the way this industry leaked with fits in it. I started that draft the Monroe on St Brown, Brian Thomas, Terry McLaurin, Kenneth Walker and coming out I don't even care what the rest of the draft was. I was like man this is going to be great. No, I'm third to last. It could not have gone worse but the one at my home league I have a buy most of my home leagues. I'm with you guys on the whole situation. If you're looking at consolation I get it and then people want to give out worst place or penalties or whatever it might be that just make that off the regular season because I don't get the constellation bracket. So if you win it you get the penalty or and then you try to lose it to win it to the only loser. It's just, it's kind of like convoluted so just last place in the regular season which by the way I'll say the most frustrating one. I'll give you guys this and everybody can skip past this and be like I don't care about your leagues because nobody cares about our leagues. The stack leagues which is an industry one that was for charity. The worst, worst, worst worst luck you've ever seen. I Traded for Travis Hunter the week that he went on the IR for the rest of the year. I traded for Garrett Wilson and Nico Collins. The weeks both of them got hurt. Wilson gone for the year, Nico Collins gone with the concussion. Fortunately he came back, but that's just a small sample. My luck was so bad, they donated to my charity. They're like, you know what? We're just giving. And I fought my blank off and I finished basically a tie break out of the playoffs. And I was so frustrated, like, yeah, like. And that, that. So I missed the playoffs. But it's the one that I'm the most proud in because I should have been in last place.
- [05:00]
Ryan Warmley
I. I know people will skip past us, which is totally fine, but I do think it's nice to have a little accountability, like as people who do this professionally and just to kind of share how our years actually went, you know, putting our money where our mouth is. By the way, Fitz, the one I was going to ask that, I forgot. Are you still in Scott Fishbowl or. No? No.
- [05:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I made the playoffs and I was bounced after one week. I was like two points short of the cutoff, but I did not have a good team and my record was way better than my actual team and I was probably lucky just to be in the playoffs. How many weeks did you survive?
- [05:30]
Ryan Warmley
I'm. I'm still in it. I'm in the quarterfinals and I've been pushing through despite Drake London not playing for any of these playoff games for me. And I'm keep waiting for him to come back. Obviously he's not, not coming back this week and trying to survive without him this year, period.
- [05:47]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, yeah, the Scott Fish, like, I love him, but I always feel like his leaks. Like you need a supercomputer to figure out how this works, especially at this point in the season.
- [05:55]
Ryan Warmley
I. I've always, yeah, I'm like, I'm going to draft players I like and then see how I do.
- [05:59]
Jake Seeley
And he's probably the most honest dude in the entire industry. But if like he was Jerry rigging the playoffs, you would never know. Like, you, you just be like, sure, cool. Whatever I got, I got bounced. Yeah.
- [06:13]
Ryan Warmley
So we'll. We'll see how this can, you know, goes for me. So into the quarterfinals there. Let's go into the show. This is our starts and sits show. We also talk some waiver ads off the waiver wire this week and are we interested in starting them here in the fantasy playoffs? I mean, kind of more pressure on that than usual. And then we'll wrap up with our touchdown calls as always. Let's start with those starting or sitting popular waiver ads. The number one guy I wanted to talk to you guys about and I'll start with you, Fitz, because I know this is a player that you really liked, you know, as a rookie coming into the league and is now getting some more opportunity here to shine. It's Blake Corum, running back for the Rams, obviously coming off a very big game. Even with Kyron Williams playing, he's coming off a very big game. This offense has been humming outside of that Panthers game. So is Corum somebody that if you picked him up off waivers this week, even with Kyron healthy, you'd be interested in or or potentially interested in starting here in the fantasy playoffs?
- [07:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Blake Corm is good and he plays in one of the best offenses in the league, but I do think he's probably more of a desperation starter than someone you want to proactively start this week. The last two weeks have been great for him. 19 carries for 209 yards and three touchdowns. Just routinely averaging 11 yards per carry and scoring touchdowns on 16% of your carries. Not bad. And pulling something like that off for a third straight week, that, that would be some real Christmas magic, especially in a pretty tough matchup against the Lions. The last two weeks it was the Cardinals and the Panthers, neither of whom have been especially good against the run. So yeah, it's going to be harder for Blake Corm to turn seven and 12 carries into double digit fantasy points against Detroit, who's given up the ninth fewest rushing yards to running backs and have only allowed six touchdown runs to running backs this season. So Corum's usage has been really predictable. Plays right around a third of the Rams offensive snaps gets somewhere from seven to 13 carries a game that's been pretty much clockwork since about week seven. And you know, it's. It worked the last couple of weeks. I wouldn't keep betting on that usage to pay off in a tougher matchup.
- [08:18]
Ryan Warmley
Jake, what do you think?
- [08:19]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I don't know. I don't have much left Fitz covered at all. I will say this, one of the things I noticed in this is that the Lions have given up as many single digit performances to any running back on the roster that they faced versus double digits. So to have two in the same game potentially, let alone one is a tough as Fitz brought up, it's one of the tougher matchups. So I wouldn't be bank on it either. Those last two weeks, as Fitz said over 10 yards per carry. Actually more like 12. Like they really think that's going to happen. Like is he turning into Devon Hn at this point from two years ago? So I'm with this. It's just tough to gamble on somebody only getting seven to 10 touches and having that kind of explosiveness in this game specifically. Maybe if it was the Saints again. Sure. Or the Cardinals as you said. But I'm with them. I have them as like an RB3 fringe play.
- [09:08]
Ryan Warmley
Well, speaking of Achan, Jake, the next player on this list and this is, you know, going through kind of in my most popular waiver pickups order, Jalen Wright and obviously coming off of a very good game that Devon Achan, you know, didn't finish. Clearly this is one where if Achan is playing, you're. You're not going to be nearly as interested in. Right. We won't know until, you know, Monday night unless they announced earlier. But that's when the game is played on a chance. So is Jalen Wright somebody that assuming, like if Achan is not on the field. I don't even want to say assuming, but if he's not on the field is right. Somebody you're interested in?
- [09:40]
Jake Seeley
Interested in the degree of like you said. So we want to know on Sunday before you have to make all these decisions because your backup plan in this game is what if Devin, like if you're waiting for Wright and H and plays, who do you turn to? Like, is it gain? Well, like so that's why you want to make sure. So I'll say that like if we knew Achan comes Saturday or before Sunday, 1pm kickoff, then I would say Wright would probably be in the RB2 range. But for me, I trust Hampton in a second game back even though the split went to Vidal. But again the first game back, I think part of that was the, of the range. And I bring that up to say like I have Hampton as a low end RB2 so he's probably falling that range because I do think we finally got what everybody wanted Jalen Wright to be since he was drafted the number two option. But do we really 100% trust that's going to be the case if there is no David Ed Chan? I think we expect it. But what if this is a 5050 split? What if this is back to the most dirt days where Ali Gordon is the moster and it's a full on 5050 split and then Wright doesn't do much with his first couple touches and they start to lean to Gordon Moore. I'M just saying there's all those scenarios there and the Steelers run defense has been playing better of late, so it's not just a Smash matchup. So a lot of factors in there. But he'd probably be in that fringe RB2 conversation for me because there is risk involved.
- [10:55]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, what do you think?
- [10:57]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, obviously not if HN is deemed okay and we know he's going to play. I was trying to think of where I would put because right now I'm ranking it as if A Chan is going to play. I think I would have Jalen Wright and sort of the the Tony Pollard Kareem Hunt district, which is like mid range RB3 right around RB30 because mainly because of what Jake says. Like I don't trust that it would be the Jalen Wright show like it was last week. And up until last week I had kind of dismissed Jalen Wright as just being bad. Like immediately got his job taken and I know he was hurt to begin the year and that's part of the reason why Ollie Gordon was sort of able to pass him on the depth chart. But really there had been no evidence to this point that J. Wright was any good. And I, I know there were people coming out of college who I, I forget who made the comment like that he runs like he has a blindfold on or something like that. And, but I mean last, last week sort of rekindled interest in Jalen Wright. I just don't know if I want to ride that into the fantasy playoffs even if A Chan is out.
- [12:05]
Ryan Warmley
One more running back here. Bam Knight, obviously Trey Benson, you know, not that we he had looked close to coming back, but he's officially out for the rest. For the Cardinals, they get this tough matchup fits against the Texans defense. Knight, he's ranked in a similar range to Blake Corum in the consensus rankings. Do you see it similarly where you're kind of like maybe in a pinch but not trying to start him?
- [12:27]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I would really be not trying to start him. He's running back 38 for me and he's the 1A to Michael Carter's 1B. But it's pretty close to 50 50. And like it's just that the matchup against the Texans is so unappealing to me. Houston has given up the fourth fewest rushing yards to running backs. They've only allowed 3.8 yards per carry to running backs. The Cardinals play the Falcons in week 16. I think Bam Knight will be flex worthy for that game. I just don't think he's Flex worthy this week against Houston.
- [13:00]
Ryan Warmley
Jake.
- [13:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah.
- [13:01]
Jake Seeley
So one of the things to go further with that about Texans, how bad it is is when they have given up fantasy points. It's been at the goal line. So do you think Bam can push one in? Maybe. Because the other side of it is the big games that you've ever seen has been explosive players. I don't. Bam Knight's kind of. Kind of explosive. But I think factor both of those in and knowing who Bam Knight is, like, I want to ask Fisk, why do you love Bam Knight? Just as a joke. I'm at 42. Like, I. This is my. I have him behind Zach Charbonnet in a timeshare. I haven't behind Videl in a timeshare game on a timeshare. Like, this is my way of saying I do not want to hinge my fancy playoffs on band night.
- [13:40]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. The other thing I didn't even mention is that the Cardinals starting left tackle Paris Johnson is going to be out for this game. I just, I think I would not be surprised at all if the Cardinals scored.
- [13:52]
Jake Seeley
Like, it's funny you said that too, because I saw the news and my mind immediately went to Paris Campbell. I was like, wait, I thought he was. And then I saw the Johnson because I just saw Paris and like, I.
- [14:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Was like, Paris Campbell, the guy who fantasy managers have given more second chances than probably any other player in the history.
- [14:08]
Jake Seeley
No, no more than Chris Kristen Michael is the oh so good point.
- [14:14]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Or Josh Gordon too, who like, you know, everyone. At least he had drafting season eight years after his last.
- [14:20]
Jake Seeley
No, the one for the packers who was the one for the receiver for the packers that everybody tried to keep giving another opportunity, another opportunity, another opportunity for he had like one huge game and then, oh, Jeff Janis. There you go. Jeff Janis, the Davis Maytag love. That's what it's like.
- [14:38]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Davis Matic did love him.
- [14:41]
Ryan Warmley
All right, let's go to plant your flag section here. Jake, we'll start with you. Who are you planting your flag on here in week 15?
- [14:48]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, it fits. And I talked about this on my podcast, which was great, great guest this week. I don't know if you heard, this guy's pretty good. But yeah, I'm gonna go to Christian Watson here and mostly because, look, I want to admit, and I'm going to say this right now, the risk is like a four. Like, because we know this, but Christian Watson, not only what he's been doing since he's been healthy with the packers, since he's come back. But the second part, and we kind of touched on it last week. We did Fitz and I on the pod, as I kept saying Jaden Reed when he comes back. The biggest thing about Jaden Reed is they've been. They've been without Tucker Kraft and nobody's been filling that void. Like Romeo Dobbs is still just Romeo Dobbs. Like they really needed Tucker Craft and what he brings to the offense. And Jaden Reed stepped in and not only looked like Jaden Reed, but he was filling that void of like. And I say void especially I'm doing this with my hands. It's like that intermediate field to open things up even more for players, even Dobbs downfield, which has been things. So I know people are looking at certain and worried about that and I know the rest of the defense is also really good. But certain is not 100% to travel. And then the one thing that we already knew since he came out of college and to this day about certain, it doesn't always happen. But big wide receivers with speed is the one thing he can sometimes struggle with because he jams and he jams greatly. But like, if you get those hands and get past them, big play opportunity downfield. And it's happened. Alec Pierce did it against him and I try to remember the other one. Terry McLaurin scored a touchdown, but that wasn't a big play. But all that being said, he can get beat. So I have Christian Watson inside my top 24 wide receivers and that's telling you I'm plugging in my lineups. I admit the risk is a 4, but Christian Watson is strongly ahead of consensus because I think people are worried about the matchup, but I'm okay trusting them to this point and trusting him in my playoffs.
- [16:28]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, what do you think about Watson.
- [16:30]
Pat Fitzmaurice
As a Packer fan? I'm excited that Jake has guaranteed that Christian Watson is going to torch Patrick Surtane Jr. On Sunday. No, I mean, yeah, it's part of it is whether the packers are going to be able to hold off Nick Bonito and friends with the Denver pass rush to give Watson the time he needs to break open on those deeper routes that he runs because he does have a very deep, average depth of target. But the packers offensive line, which has been at times really shaky this season, has looked really good the last couple of weeks against the Lions and Bears. So you know they're there is room for optimism here. And the nice thing about Watson is like you normally only need one or two big plays out of him to make your Day for fantasy. So I'm. I'm excited about Jake's optimism.
- [17:21]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, Jake's. Jake says he's, you know, ahead of consensus. So some of these names around consensus for you, Fitz. I want to ask Christian Watson because we're not talking about any of these names. Coming up later in the show. Christian Watson or Lad McConkey, A Mecha, Buca, Juan Jennings, DK Metcalf. These are the names that are kind of sandwiching him. Would he be ahead of those guys for you? Or it's kind of, you know, mix and match, depending on the player.
- [17:43]
Pat Fitzmaurice
He is just behind all of those guys for me. But, like, they're basically in the same tier, so. Yeah. And I can't say I'm wildly enthusiastic about any of those guys either right now. Like, I've got a book one spot ahead of Watson and he's been getting consistently more targets than Watson. But while Watson has been really cashing in on his targets, EBUCA has not at all lately. So maybe I need to rethink that one.
- [18:12]
Jake Seeley
Well, so Warren's not here next week, so you can't laugh at me, but Fitzpat. But I'll tell you, I have Watson in front of all those and I'll give you one more, including Justin Jefferson is behind them.
- [18:23]
Ryan Warmley
Okay. Yeah, Jefferson.
- [18:26]
Jake Seeley
Why are we still doing Jefferson? Like, why?
- [18:29]
Ryan Warmley
I mean, he's like, people are talking.
- [18:32]
Jake Seeley
About, oh, okay, we'll save it.
- [18:34]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, we do. We have him on here later. And I'm curious to hear you go. Go harder on this. But like, it's one of those where it's like, like, similar to Igbuka, actually. I mean, that's why we did. We did Jefferson versus Buka last week. But like, it was a lot of like, we're not seeing it happen. And yet they're still getting ranked inside the top, you know, 15 or so. You know, Jefferson is. Why does. She were 14 this week. You know, like, people are still. He's being ranked in an area. Let's start. But yeah, we'll get. We'll get to that one later. Fitz, who are you planting your flag on?
- [19:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Stefan Diggs. And the revenge game narrative does get overdone, but I do think a game against the Bills means a little more to. Stefan Diggs. Already had a game against his former team in Week 5. Diggs lit up the Bills for 10 catches and 146 yards, both season highs. And now he's coming off two pretty quiet games. Two catches for 20 yards against the Bengals, three for 26 against the Giants. I think this is a get right spot for Diggs.
- [19:33]
Ryan Warmley
Jake, what do you think about that?
- [19:34]
Jake Seeley
I'm good with it. I know I figured he was going to bring up the first matchup too, but like this is the one opportunity still where the Bills have also been vulnerable and this kind of, this kind of wide receiver and I know there's a lot of people like narrative wise coming off two bad games like they're going to make it a thing for step now I'm just what with Fitz brought up is that there's other narratives including a game that like Diggs wants to show off but like it's also about the matchup itself. So I'm with him. I have Diggs inside of my top 24. Actually have diggs in front of Jefferson as well.
- [20:04]
Ryan Warmley
Okay, I was gonna ask. That's, that's an interesting one. I was gonna ask Diggs or, or Watson for you or are you much higher on Watson?
- [20:09]
Jake Seeley
Jake, I have him almost back to back. I have, I have, I go digs DK Watson and DK's contingent on like I want him 100% like a DK at less than 100% and he's fallen back and I honestly that always has to do with the fact that the matchup should help too.
- [20:26]
Ryan Warmley
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- [24:11]
Ryan Warmley
And S. Guys, let's get into the start sit player debates here. First player debate at running back Breece hall or Ashton Genty. Obviously two names that if you drafted these guys I think you probably expected to be very clearly starting them here in the fantasy playoffs. But it's maybe not so obvious just giving all the circumstances going around them and how they've been producing here. So I'll start with you, Jake Breece hall or Ashton Genty, who would you rather start?
- [24:37]
Jake Seeley
Can I take a pass? Like I just, I hate this matchup for Genty and just especially with Kenny Pickett. I don't know what's going to happen here, but I will give Brace hall the slight edge. Unless it's Brady Cook. You might get me to argue back to Genti just because of how bad it looked once Cook came into that game. Sounds like Justin Fields is not going to be factored in. Missed practice with the knee injury and for a lot of people that are saying oh he didn't even want to take a touch in that game, he was out for that game. Like it's like the knee issue is like apparently bigger than we think and maybe he's milking it, maybe he's just mad or whatever. But the point being is I don't know that we get Fields. If we get Taylor, it's 100% presole. If it's no Taylor then I probably give Jinty the slight lead even with Kenny Pickett revenge game. Kenny Pickett, you never know.
- [25:23]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah they are. They are back to back in ECR by the way, Ash and Genti RB19. This is in half PPR scoring. RB19 for Genty fits and RB20 for Breeze Hall.
- [25:35]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, did you know Ryan Wormley that Ashton genti has averaged 3.5 yards per carry or worse for eight straight games dating back to October 12th and I.
- [25:47]
Ryan Warmley
Didn'T know that but I might have guessed something near that. It's been quite poor.
- [25:52]
Pat Fitzmaurice
3.5 yards per carry. That's pretty bad over his last seven games. Genti's high water mark in rushing yardage for a Single game is 60 yards and he has had games with 31, 30, 21 and 7 rushing yards and Genti has one touchdown run over his last seven games. None of this is Genti's fault of course. The Raiders offensive line is terrible. Certainly didn't help that they lost Colton Miller and oh Jackson Powers. Geez, I almost said Austin Powers Johnson. Jackson Powers Johnson to injuries. So at least though Genti has been productive as a pass catcher, he's averaged five catches over his last six games, 28.8 receiving yards, couple of touchdown catches. So he is sort of raising his floor with his work in the passing game. He's doing more as a pass catcher than hall has, but the jets running game has at least been functional with a far better offensive line than the Raiders have. So hall is running back 13 1/2 point PPR fantasy points per game since week eight. Tough matchups for both guys as as Jake said, Genty getting the Eagles on the road with Kenny Pickett at quarterback and you know, not an easy matchup for hall either. Facing the Jaguars in Jacksonville, one of the better run defenses in the league. I like Hall a little more this week, but I suspect that Jake and I are going to be in the minority of rankers with this opinion because Genti seems like sort of a sacred cow in acr. Like he's always getting ranked higher than he should be and But I admit I've been guilty of that too.
- [27:28]
Jake Seeley
We need the Spider Man Genti pointing at Jefferson meme. That's what we need.
- [27:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yes.
- [27:33]
Ryan Warmley
Yes. Yeah, Genti. To your point, Fitz, about the yards per carry, he's only been over at 4 or higher twice all season. Like not even just his last. You know, eight. Eight games. Like you were saying, it was weeks four and five. He was 6.6 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per attempt. Every other game this season he has been 3.9 or lower. He has eight touchdowns in his 13 games, which is, you know, helped give him something of a floor with some of those receiving touchdowns. By the way, before you ask, Jake, I don't know if this will surprise you or not. I've never seen an Austin Powers movie, so.
- [28:06]
Jake Seeley
Doesn't surprise me. I mean, I'll at least give you the pass on the fact like your age also has. But yeah, thank you.
- [28:12]
Ryan Warmley
If you appreciate unlike D Row, you will give me a pass. D Row never gives me a pass on this.
- [28:16]
Jake Seeley
No, but I mean if you're. If you have something to do in the off season and you Enjoy a spoof on 007 movies at all, then like you need to watch.
- [28:24]
Ryan Warmley
I like James Bond movies. I like parodies. It would make sense. I just haven't gotten around to it. So I'll. I'll put it on the list here. Let's go to another running back debate, guys. How about Omarion Hampton, who you kind of mentioned earlier? Jake or Deandre Swift? A couple of guys who have other options in their respective backfields. Hampton obviously coming off of his first game, returning in however many weeks it was, you know, and, and looked okay. I mean he looked really bad in pass protection but he ran okay at times. He obviously caught the touchdown. And then DeAndre Swift has continued to be, you know, him and him and nun guy in the backfield together. So between Hampton and Swift, I'll start with you on this one, Fitz. Who do you like better?
- [29:02]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Swift. Kamani Vidal played more than twice as many snaps as Omarion Hampton in the Chargers Monday night win over the Eagles. Yes, it was Hampton's first game back from injury and the scales are going to start tipping back toward Hampton. I think we all believe that, but we probably still have to consider this as a split backfield for now. And oh by the way, the Chargers offensive line is terrible. So kind of for the same reason. I'm not really excited about starting Ashton Genty. I'm not terribly excited to start either Charger running back this week. The Bears also have the split backfield, but they might have the best run blocking offensive line in the league. Like they're averaging 179 rushing yards a game over their last eight games. It's going to be bitterly cold here in Chicago on Sunday. I think they said the wind chill is going to be sub zero, air temperature of like 10 or 11 degrees. Conditions are probably going to favor a run heavy approach. I would rather start DeAndre Swift against the Browns, whose run defense mostly good this season, although they somehow managed to make Tony Pollard look like Earl last week. Yeah, look up Earl Campbell Worm. He was really good and so yeah, I'd much rather play Swift than Hampton in a pretty tough matchup against the Chiefs.
- [30:19]
Ryan Warmley
I'm familiar with Earl Campbell at the very least. I, yeah, I was going to ask what you thought of the matchups because like on paper neither is good. But, but you know the Browns were just torched by Tony Pollard last week. Like does that, does that change your opinion fits at all in evaluating the Bears backfield or are you looking at that as like just one of the most surprising performances of the season and you don't want to take anything from it?
- [30:42]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I mean the Browns were really, really tough against the run in the early weeks of the season and I think they've been just kind of average against the run since then.
- [30:50]
Ryan Warmley
We, and you know we talked about, I had conversations with Erickson early in the year looking way ahead to the right now the fantasy playoff schedule, talking about certain teams and whenever the Browns came up I would try to make the point that defense is a lot about effort. Run defense is a lot about effort at times and if your team is getting beat down all season because the offense is terrible, it doesn't matter how good that defense is. Like eventually that effort typically starts to wane when you get to December and maybe it wouldn't look so scary by the time we got to this point. So I'm not saying that'll be how it plays out the next month, but something to keep in mind. Jake Hampton is ranked ahead of swift by just two spots in ECR. It's RB25 and RB27 respectively. Who do you like better?
- [31:30]
Jake Seeley
I think it's pretty much a toss up because I have them back to back. So I'm going to say if you want to go either way But I will tell you one that also helps with Fitz and saying that Swift could be the call here. And this was from my write up this week. So I went since week eight basically the turn of the season like now looking at the second half of the season because if we look over the course of the full season we know defense has changed injuries, blah blah blah blah. So that's kind of the point that I picked from. But the Browns are only second to the Raiders in run stuff percentage so that's the worry part of it. I will say that they're 25.7% of the time. The Raiders are 27.1. That defense. This continues to be good but here's the flip side of it. Since then running backs with at least 20 touches Swift third lowest and stuffed 5.5% because of his ability. He gets away from it. The interesting part about it, there's 2 lower that might surprise a lot of people on both of them. One is Keaton Mitchell at 5% but then do you guys want you get one guess one guess since week eight who has a 0.0 stuff percentage at running back?
- [32:30]
Ryan Warmley
I'm not sure I even have a guess. Fitz. What do you think?
- [32:32]
Jake Seeley
He's in a timeshare.
- [32:35]
Pat Fitzmaurice
In a timeshare I'll say Kenneth Gainwell.
- [32:38]
Jake Seeley
Chuba Hubbard hasn't been stuffed hasn't I would not have gotten to that time since then. But anyway to the point Swift's ability to get away from it is why I'm not that concerned about the matchup to also help my entire point is helping Fitz's argument with Swift.
- [32:53]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So what would you do if you had this call Jake in one of your playoff games?
- [33:01]
Jake Seeley
I'M going to. So I have them back to back. I'm going to let my projections make the decision, honestly. But I will say this.
- [33:08]
Ryan Warmley
I haven't.
- [33:08]
Jake Seeley
I don't know because I do mine. I do them on Thursday. I will say this. I will say no matter what the projections say, I would actually call Swift the safer play if I needed the ceiling. And maybe they're just give Hampton 18 of the touches and push Vidal completely to the side then I would risk that because it's a risk. Especially with that offensive line.
- [33:27]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It does seem like the Chargers are going to want to be run heavier the rest of the seat. We saw it on Monday night. That line just cannot protect Herbert. Yeah, it's a terrible. So unless they want to get Justin Herbert killed, like they need to be really run heavy the rest of the way.
- [33:42]
Ryan Warmley
Yep.
- [33:43]
Jake Seeley
Yeah.
- [33:44]
Ryan Warmley
All right, let's go to some wide receiver debates here. How about the aforementioned Stefan Diggs or Jacoby Myers? Jake, I'll start with you on this one. Would you rather start Diggs or Myers this week?
- [33:53]
Jake Seeley
This is one I usually say. Like I don't like it. I like both of this. Like Jacoby Myers, that being said, has been touchdown Reliant. So I think that if you look at the two of them, Brian Thomas last week finally looked good. Speaking of looking good, Jayden Reed looking good. We hope Mike Evans, by the time people are watching this, they're probably already seeing Mike Evans. We hope these wide receivers look good coming back. But Brian Thomas looked good enough to say like maybe there's a little slight concern with Jacoby Myers and it's the Jets. So assumably it's the Jaguars. We assume that it will be a lot of Travis Etienne. They don't need to pass a ton. So I have. There's another one. You pick. You keep picking my back to back guys. So the slight lean to digs for ceiling but Jacoby Myers, I would want to get both of like again, I'd put both of them in my lineup before I put Justin Jefferson in my lineup. I mean, you're not going to have any questions left by the time I get the Justin Jefferson.
- [34:40]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I've run out of players to ask about Fitz, what do you think? Obviously Diggs is a guy that you know you like. You're planting your flag on him. But I know you have liked Jacoby Myers too. So who do you like better this week? And by the way, in ECR it is Myers at wide receiver 19 and Stefan Diggs at wide receiver 21.
- [34:58]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah. So I've got Myers at wide receiver 19 also, but I've digs at wide receiver 15. He is my flag plant guy. It's great how well Jacoby Myers has fit in with the Jaguars. It has been a little touchdown dependent, which is funny that we're saying that in connection with Jacoby Myers, the guy who used to be incapable of scoring touchdowns back in his Patriots days. But yeah, I think if you are considering benching either of these guys for your playoff matchup, you have a really, really good team.
- [35:29]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. And I think Myers is interesting because it's very possible that he was a depth pickup right like, and at this point you might have been starting him. But if you have like a lot of really good players that you drafted early, like he was taken in a range where he could easily have, you would have expected him to be, you know, your wide receiver five or whatever. And you might have to make a decision like this even though they're both ranked inside the top 21 in ECR. So that's how those guys see it. Let's go to Terry McLaurin or Wanda Robinson. We haven't really talked about McLaurin on the show because he missed so much time and obviously his quarterback has missed time. It just hasn't been a name that's come up for a variety of reasons. Wondale has come up before. These guys are also back to back Jake in ECR. Terry McLaurin is wide receiver 16, Wandale is wide receiver 17 in ECR. Playing against each other's teams in this game, who do you prefer?
- [36:19]
Jake Seeley
Terry McLaurin. This one I actually feel strongly about and it goes back to what I would have done the same thing last week. I didn't know the commanders were going to be malpractice and putting Jayn Daniels out there when he fell on his arm and left the game like he wasn't even tackled or fallen on, he just fell on his arm as he got pushed down and that's it. That's all it took. But I'm going to Terry McLaurin because Marcus Mariota did the same thing I expect Daniels to do is now that McLaurin is 100% is to treat him like what we know McLaurin is and he's going against the Giants secondary. If you can give me wide receivers against the Giants secondary, a lot of times they're going to pick them and I like Wandell Robinson and we hope this can be a shootout. But the one thing about Jackson Dart is he continues to be low passing volume Low passing yards. A lot of times it involves Wandell Robinson, admittedly. But if you look at it, more games under 100 yards than 200 plus yards. And that 200 plus yards to even say like, well, when he got injured, that was one of the games he threw for 200 yards is when he got injured in that game against the Bears. So I'm just saying, like, when you talk about the volume between the two of them, I'm going to take the Marcus Mariota volume against the Giants versus the Jackson Dart one. Another one where I like both. But this is the biggest gap we have so far. I have Terry McLaurin inside my top 15.
- [37:29]
Ryan Warmley
Okay, Fitz, do you see this as close or do you also have a gap here?
- [37:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
No, I see it as close and I've actually got Wanda ranked a little higher. Jake makes some really good points for McLaren. I might have to reconsider my ranking of him. I just feel, hey, you've been killing.
- [37:42]
Jake Seeley
Wide receivers this year, so, like, I'm more likely to come your side than the other way around.
- [37:47]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, what I looked at with this was just sort of the target volume. And obviously McLaurin with all the time he's missed, like, we can't get a really good read there, although Mariota certainly peppered him. The last time we saw Mariota and McLaurin play together, I think 14 targets for scary Terry. But Wanda, I just feel like the target volume is very secure. He's averaging 8.5 targets a game this season, 10.6 over his last five games, with no fewer than eight targets in any game over that span. So the usage has just been really steady for Wandell. I guess that's why I've got him ranked a smidge higher. But, you know, this is a start sit decision. If I had this one, I would be agonizing over right up until kickoff on Sunday.
- [38:35]
Jake Seeley
I think this is for you, Fitz. I think this comes down to more of my love of McLaurin versus my hate for Wandell, to be clear.
- [38:44]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean, I used to be sort of anti Wondale too. He's. He's finally won me over. I used to be like, okay, why, why do people give this guy snaps? But I know just the fact that he was able to make Russell Wilson look good earlier this season, I guess was kind of what won me also fair.
- [39:00]
Ryan Warmley
Would you, Jake, start the either of these two or Michael Wilson, who has been awesome. But like, I'm terrified of this matchup against Houston. Like, I am terrified. Just fading very heavily Everybody in this passing game besides Trey McBride, do you see it that way? Or would you just say, like, he's been so good, you have to start him over either a McLaren or a Wanda.
- [39:20]
Jake Seeley
So, like, it is one and it's a terrifying matchup that we've been brought up a lot. And I will say that I would still go McLaurin, but then I go Michael Wilson, then Wandell. They're all kind of in a similar range, but that's the order I would go in. Mostly because that even as bad as this is, and I know they just made Patrick Mahomes look miserable, but we still know Brissette's throwing it 40 plus times and the Texans have given up 20 plus completions, which isn't a huge number. But when we know that 50% of that's going to be actually probably 80%. I was going to say 50% was probably Wilson. We'll say 80% is Wilson and McBride in a single game, then you can still get six, seven completions out of it to Michael Wilson.
- [40:03]
Ryan Warmley
Do you feel the same fits?
- [40:04]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I have these three guys grouped together. This would be a really difficult decision. Same thing. I mean, we, we can, I guess.
- [40:14]
Jake Seeley
Here's one that's not in the list.
- [40:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Go ahead.
- [40:17]
Ryan Warmley
Non.
- [40:17]
Jake Seeley
100% Olave or Michael Wilson.
- [40:21]
Pat Fitzmaurice
It's a lava for me.
- [40:23]
Jake Seeley
Okay.
- [40:24]
Ryan Warmley
Alave in ECR is actually. So it's Terry McLaurin at wide receiver 16, Wandale at wide receiver 17. Alave is wide receiver 15. So he's right.
- [40:33]
Jake Seeley
Yeah.
- [40:33]
Ryan Warmley
You know, on the other side of.
- [40:34]
Pat Fitzmaurice
This, guys, were you thinking about that?
- [40:36]
Jake Seeley
Because you smirked when I asked that.
- [40:37]
Ryan Warmley
Were you.
- [40:37]
Jake Seeley
Were you thinking about putting a lobby in the list there?
- [40:39]
Ryan Warmley
I did. I did consider a lave. Yeah, I did. I did. I usually look at your guys's rankings before doing this, and then this week I didn't. I just put it together myself. So I was wondering how it was going to come out in terms of like, are you guys going to think these are close or is this going to be like, what? These are stupid questions. These are super easy. So I'm glad that there's been some disagreement here with these. But yeah, I did consider a lave too. All right, let's get to some more rapid fire starts at decisions here. We'll go back to the running backs. How about Zach Charbonnet or Kenneth Gainwell? Another couple of kind of split backfields here. You know, Gainwell obviously not playing till Monday night, but Charbonnet against the Colts or Gainwell against the Dolphins?
- [41:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Fits close call Charbonnet by a nose. You think that with the Seahawks favored by 13 and a half points at home against the Colts, whose season is going up in smoke, that it's going to be a real run friendly game script for the Seahawks, who as it is are the only NFL team that has had more running plays than passing plays this year. So maybe both Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker can eat for a change.
- [41:39]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah I we on the predictions show with Erickson earlier this week for anybody who missed it, one of my predictions was that the Seattle defense was going to win matchups this week. They're going to score over 20 points was my prediction and we are supposed to come up with a prop that goes along with our predictions. Normally it's related to the player we picked. I didn't want to do like a defensive prop so my prop was also a Charbonnet and anytime touchdown because I just think they're going to be up by so much that they're going to be running the ball a lot. Charbonnet will get an opportunity to score.
- [42:06]
Pat Fitzmaurice
At least one touchdown, promising they're going to score more points than they scored against Max Brosmer and the Vikings a couple of weeks ago when they hit 30.
- [42:14]
Ryan Warmley
I'm not going to promise that, but I wouldn't be surprised if they challenge it is what I'll say. Yeah, Charbonnet by the way is RB40 and ECR Gainwell RB39 so another two that are back to back by consensus. Jake, who do you prefer?
- [42:28]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, first of all I will not stand for this Philip river slander. I don't know what you guys are doing. I will say I am terrified. This dude gets tackled once and then disappears for the rest of the game. We need the Madden cart to come out and crash through players just to get to him. Like remember they all actually you probably don't get that reference Worm, but thank you. Another old man reference there. I will say it's close but I'm kind of with fits on this with Charbonnet this split continues to be frustrating. Kenneth Walker two weeks ago was doing well through the three quarters and then didn't touch the ball in the fourth. That game was out of hand but he was doing well. It was not like amazing. And then last week we get back and forth and we know that they play similar roles, Charbonnet and Gainwell at the goal line but who's likely to get more touches on overall whether or not Philip Rivers has a good game in his first game back since forever. It's still going to be Charbonnet. It's close, but I agree with Fitz Charbonnet.
- [43:20]
Ryan Warmley
My favorite Philip Rivers stat is that he went.04 lifetime against the Maryland Terrapins in college. So my, my team was something he couldn't crack the code of the Terps.
- [43:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
So that story states Maryland rivalry.
- [43:36]
Ryan Warmley
Exactly.
- [43:36]
Jake Seeley
I love the fact that like I tweeted it out because Jacob Robinson was asking me about Philip Rivers return Jacob at the Athletic and as he was doing he's like, I can't believe he's this old. And it immediately made me think about his oldest kid. And like as the news broke I was like, by the way, his oldest child is born in the same year and older than the quarterback he's replacing in Riley Leonard. And then multiple people ended up tweeting out the same thing and. But that's the most insane stat to me that his oldest child is older than the quarterback that he's replacing.
- [44:05]
Ryan Warmley
I think you like he's a grandfather, right? Like you could even just see that like do you know the other grandfather playing in.
- [44:11]
Jake Seeley
There's only been two grandfathers quarterback to play in the NFL.
- [44:14]
Ryan Warmley
I don't know the other one.
- [44:15]
Jake Seeley
Brett Favre.
- [44:18]
Ryan Warmley
Oh, really?
- [44:19]
Jake Seeley
His last, very last season. His. They had the grandkid.
- [44:24]
Ryan Warmley
Oh, interesting.
- [44:25]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Wow.
- [44:26]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, that's. That's remarkable. All right, speaking of that Colts game, let's go to a wide receiver here. Michael Pittman or Brian Thomas Jr. You know, I. This is really just like risk tolerance. I. I guess Jake, like who are you willing to kind of stomach starting given just everything they are again, back to back in ECR. Brian Thomas Jr. Wide receiver 30. Michael Pittman Jr. Is wide receiver 31.
- [44:52]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I have a little bit bigger gap on that because of the risk tolerance. And then the whole. I tweeted. I actually talked about this with Fitz too. It was like the assumption with Philip Rivers is, you know, oh, he's going to love his tight end. And for his career he's been pretty league average targeting tight ends. He has some peak seasons where he's hit like 30% and some where he's only been 15% because talent matters and. But what does he have? He has one of the better talents at tight end and at this point he's always had a decent. It's like Derek Carr ish arm where he will throw downfield, but his real strength is the intermediate game. And now at 44, do we really think there's much of an arm left? So I'm bringing that up to say is I do think that the majority of his volume is probably going to be handing it off to Jonathan Taylor, but also Tyler Warren and even Josh Downs to a bit where Alec Pierce might get hurt and then Michael Pittman also might get hurt a little bit. So the fact that Brian Thomas looked healthy last week, I think that I'm going to lean to Brian Thomas getting back. Like if we knew Brian Thomas was 100%, we were having this conversation week one. Brian Thomas was a wide receiver one, so I think him getting back to that similar to Terry McLaurin. But I do have him as a wide receiver too because it's still the risk of this entire offense and Trevor Lawrence not targeting Brian Thomas heavily. But I think we had that same concern with Pittman, so I'll give Thomas the edge.
- [46:06]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz, how do you see it?
- [46:07]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Same BTJ I thought he looked more like the 2024 Brian Thomas Jr last week against the Colts and now he gets a friendly matchup with the Jets. I'm glad Jake feels the same way because I think Thomas oh, you can't see my football.
- [46:20]
Jake Seeley
It's BT7 by the way. That's how he signs his merchandise. So it's BT7, not BTJ.
- [46:25]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Get it right, just BT7. So yeah, I mean I think I'm, I think three or four spots above ECR and putting him at wide receiver 25. So good to good to hear you have him in wide receiver 24 range. Yeah, I just, I don't want to play Colts pass catchers this week. Philip Rivers Great story. I love that he's coming back, but the dude hasn't played football since 2020 and now they're going to throw him out there against the Seahawks. Like, I can't wait to see what this looks like, but I do not want to stake my fantasy fortunes on a quarterback who's been retired for five years going against one of the best past defenses in the league. And by the way, about that tight end thing, Jake, it's like, yeah, Philip Rivers likes his tight ends. Oh really? He thinks throwing Antonio Gates is like plus. Yeah, I mean but that shocker, that all gets overdone and then you know someone, oh, he hates his tight ends. Well, dude, Tyler Conklin was his best tight end. So yeah, it kind of depends on the personnel and a lot of Lamar.
- [47:24]
Jake Seeley
Jackson has the highest mark of throwing to the tight ends for the last 20 years. Oh, by the way, it just happened to be when he threw to Mark Andrews for 42% of the time. That one year shocker like so it's. You got to. As fit said, you got to bring context into this. By the way, is this going to be the most washed 4pm game in like the entire season? Just because everybody's going to be tuning in to see Philip Rivers?
- [47:45]
Ryan Warmley
It will be the. I bet it'll be the most watched game with a 13 and a half point spread of the.
- [47:50]
Jake Seeley
I'll give you that for sure.
- [47:52]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
- [47:52]
Jake Seeley
Okay, then I guess will it beat Lions, Rams is the big question.
- [47:58]
Ryan Warmley
I don't think so.
- [47:59]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Packers, Broncos is also the.
- [48:01]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, there's some confidence in the slate.
- [48:03]
Jake Seeley
That's a good point too.
- [48:04]
Ryan Warmley
But, but it'll, it'll, it'll have eyes on it for sure. All right, let's get to some flexes. Kenneth Walker or Justin Jefferson? Let's hear it, Jake.
- [48:14]
Jake Seeley
Kenneth Walker. And I don't even want to pick Kenneth Walker because every single week it's a split. Like I will say this, despite what Justin Jefferson's been, which is a big fat doo doo for most of the season, basically since he lost Carson Wentz, can like just, can we do the one arm man, like to just throw him out there, Carson Wentz with one arm and get him back for Justin Jefferson. But all that being said, Justin Jefferson's done nothing. And with the thing I was about to say before, I said we'll save it. If his name was Justin McNichols, like, nobody would care. He would be on waiver wire and he'd be waiver wire forgotten at this point. Like, that's how bad it's been. But it's the issue of trying to get out of our minds as like, who we know. It's the Christian Watson thing. Like, we were so annoyed with him for two years that nobody wanted to trust him because what we know, we know Justin Jefferson, we know he's done it with Nick Mullins and Carson Wentz. So why can't he do it with J.J. mcCarthy? And nobody wants to have him on his bench, on his bench, on his bench and watch him go off for 25 points. But it's not happening. It hasn't happened. Like, we've made that argument for how many weeks now? 7?
- [49:15]
Ryan Warmley
8?
- [49:16]
Jake Seeley
So I'm going with Kenneth Walker unless I need a home run play. And I think that's where Jefferson is now at this point. We've been waiting, waiting, waiting, arguing that he should be in lineups similar to Genti and he's basically fallen into the. You're going to possibly get five. There's still the Jefferson potential to get a 25. But that's who he is now. So if you need the ceiling, it's Jefferson. But if you need the safe play, it's Kenneth Walker, because also, he's not even getting targeted 20% of the time. Under 20%, 14, 15% of the time. So it's not like. It's not the Abuka argument. It's. He's just not even getting targets.
- [49:51]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz.
- [49:52]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm totally with Jake. Kenneth Walker again. Run friendly game script coming for Seattle, I think. And I'm just. I've decided I don't want to go down with the Titanic on Jefferson anymore. I'm going to be like the Billy Zane character, pushing my way past the women and children as I head for the lifeboats. Jefferson Reference Wide receiver, 33 in fantasy points per game this season. Jefferson is in half point PPR. But since week 10, wide receiver, 74 in fantasy points per game, trailing such luminaries as Xavier Leggette, Tim Patrick, Andre Yosef Ash, Kenneth Walker. Please.
- [50:32]
Jake Seeley
I will say, Fitz, you should. As impassioned as I was, that should have changed your opinion, right? Like, you've been like, I'm getting off this. This is gonna be. Jefferson's gonna finally blow up.
- [50:42]
Ryan Warmley
I liked the. I saw the meme that somebody put out there. I forget who it was, but it was like the. The Anakin talking to Padme, and he's like, J.J. mcCarthy finally had a great game against a terrible commander's defense, and Padme is like, oh, so Justin Jefferson finally bounced back, right? And he just does this there. Like, Justin Jefferson bounced back, right? Like. And it is crazy that, like, JJ finally has a good game and it's, you know, four targets, two catches, 11 yards for his best receiver. So it just feels very, very.
- [51:14]
Jake Seeley
Jokes aside. See, that's what we knew about McCarthy coming out of college is he's not very anticipatory yet. So when you have defenses spending that much attention on Jefferson, he has to anticipate where Jefferson is going to be and when the window is going to pop up. And he's not. He's waiting. And at that point, he is covered full on coverage or he's thrown into the defenders. So it's just not there yet. McCarthy can get better, but it's just not there yet.
- [51:39]
Ryan Warmley
Another flex here. How about Kyle Manangai or Michael Wilson, who we talked about a little bit earlier? Fitz, I'll start with you on this one. Who would you rather start here? Wilson against the Texans or Manungai against the Browns?
- [51:51]
Pat Fitzmaurice
If Marvin Harrison Jr. Is out and he was not practicing as of Wednesday. I'll, I'll take Wilson here. He's at 18, 15 and 16 targets in the three games Marvin Harrison Jr. Has missed and he's had 10 or more catches and 118 or more yards in all of them. Now I don't expect those kind of numbers against the Texans because that is one nasty defense, but I am willing to chase that sort of target volume even if it's into a burning building against this defense.
- [52:22]
Ryan Warmley
Jake, what do you think?
- [52:24]
Jake Seeley
That's dark there. I'm with you on this mostly because to go back to my point about the stuff percentage is where Manangai has really been also making his hay is getting those touchdowns too where they turn away from Swift at the goal line. So it's kind of that similar argument we had before with facing the Lions is like do you really want to take the quorum and hope for the touchdown? The second piece when nine guys look great and he does get into space and he does have that ability. But that's what my point is that they also turned him at the goal line. So it's like eh, does he get one in and if not, yeah, this is a full on Wilson. Like if he, even if he gets the touchdown, it should probably be a very close score between the two. But without it it's probably going to be a huge gap even with the terrible matchup.
- [53:06]
Ryan Warmley
Let's go to another flex here. Cortland Sutton or Jalen Warren? Jake, who do you like better, Sutton or Warren?
- [53:12]
Jake Seeley
This is a tough one for me. So Cortland Sutton since week seven, one double digit score. It's, it's been bad and it's the part of, it's the schedule which includes this week. Like no team had a worse schedule for wide receivers and also quarterbacks included. Including the past two weeks and now the final three weeks, the Denver Broncos have one of the worst and they just don't need to go to Clarkland Sutton. But I will say I skew a little bit towards Warren, but it's much closer than it was last night. Now knowing Patrick Bryant is out, so Pat Bryant is out for this game, which puts Troy Franklin back into play. But the fact that you just take one more piece away from Bo Nix and he could scramble a ton in this game. It's not a great matchup as we all know, but it could be a situation where maybe Sutton finds his way into the end zone and that's the one thing that Warren's been lacking because they Turned to Kenneth Gainwell. So it's close, but this is another one. Not to sound like I'm straddling the fence, but if I just want to guarantee myself points, it is 100% Warren. If I need to shoot for that ceiling, it's going to be sudden.
- [54:12]
Ryan Warmley
Fitz.
- [54:13]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I'm going to follow the Bob Harris rule of flex decisions here. When in doubt, go with the running back over the receiver.
- [54:19]
Jake Seeley
There you go.
- [54:19]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, not, not that I'm necessarily in doubt here. I mean, the Patrick Bryant thing does close the gap a little bit, but Warren has been one of the most stable assets in fantasy this year. Like, he hasn't had a lot of really big games, but he hasn't laid many eggs either. He's averaging 12 half point PPR fantasy points per game, which puts him at running back 22 in per game fantasy scoring. His single game high this season is 17.8. His lowest total is 7.3. Like if that's your lowest total in 13 games, you're, you're doing pretty well. That's a pretty stable floor. So. Sutton, meanwhile, has had three games this season where he's finished with fewer than four fantasy points points. He's kind of been all over the place and not an easy matchup with the packers this week.
- [55:05]
Ryan Warmley
One more flex here. Tony Pollard coming off of this shocking, insane game. Or Jordan Addison. We just talked about his teammate, of course, in Minnesota. Addison or Pollard this week? Fitz.
- [55:16]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I don't want to seem like I'm point chasing with Pollard, but I'm, I'm just, I'm going with Pollard and I'm following the volume. Like he's had double digit carries in all but one game this season and he averages about two catches a game. So give me that over J.J. mcCarthy's number two rank receiver.
- [55:31]
Ryan Warmley
What do you think, Jake?
- [55:32]
Jake Seeley
I mean arguably his number one whiteout of Justin Jefferson and, but also T.J. hawkinson of all. So I will say Tony Pollard, his first double digit score since week five. Also, by the way, you want to know how many goal line carries he has on the year? A whopping four. So. And neither of those came last week with those touchdowns. All that being said, I just wanted to present that to say I actually agree with Fitz on this one because I don't love Tony Pollard. Actually, I'm one of the biggest haters of Tony Tony Pollard haters. I put that on quote, because I don't hate the guy, but haters in fantasy. Like, I have Pollard nowhere. I told people not to draft them and yet in this scenario specifically Worm, you got me to pick Tony Pollard. I don't know if you did it on purpose. I don't want to do it but you got me to pick him.
- [56:17]
Ryan Warmley
Should I have asked about JJ McCarthy's real number one target, Josh Oliver?
- [56:23]
Jake Seeley
Well that's the other part of it too is they've been running a lot more two and three tight end sets. That's actually that last game was one of the it was the the heaviest two and three tight end game and maybe they're following the Rams suit of recent bias and maybe like that's the thing is hey let's copy where Kevin o' Connell came from and like kind of Maybe that helps McCarthy and it did at least for one game.
- [56:42]
Pat Fitzmaurice
We had a, we had a our playoff started last week in the Fantasy pros Content Team league and I was playing Joe PSAP and I had Justin Jefferson on that team and like when I'm watching Josh Oliver catch his second touchdown pass just rolling my eyes I.
- [56:58]
Ryan Warmley
I got a buy in that league which I needed because I would have been outscored by like the entirely I my team had a terrible week but thankfully I was on by so it didn't matter. Guys were you know resting up for me there. Let's go to the quarterback here for start sit decision. How about Jordan Love or Sam Darnold? Jake, I'll start with you on this one. Love or Darnold? And to give you the ECR darnold is QB15, love is QB16.
- [57:25]
Jake Seeley
Yeah I know this is one probably people are dealing with because a lot of quarterback situations I'm going to go with Love mostly because I know the matchup is really bad but he looks like that Love that that hot stretch from last year and the hot stretch the year before that and I know that stretch can end at any point and it is the Broncos and is a very tough matchup but Darnold's early season to mid season reliance. You know what similar to Jordan Love's stretch had been on touchdown efficiency and I'm not saying he can't get back to it but we've been talking about this game a lot. Does this need to be a Darnold game where he even throws 30 times which is something that hasn't happened a lot of times this year. So Maybe he gets two touchdowns on his 15 completions and this looks dumb at the end of the day but I just don't know that they need a ton of Darnold in this game. I don't know this is a game where the Seahawks you were going to be playing from behind at any point. So I'm going to give Jordan Love the slight edge. To give you an idea, I have love at 13 and darnold at 15.
- [58:20]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Okay, Fitz, Jake just underscored my main concern about Darnold is the passing volume run heavy team to begin with and they're big favorites against Indy. If Indy can't push Seattle, Darnold could very easily wind up with like 20 to 23 pass attempts in this game. But I, I still have him ranked just ahead of Jordan Love because I'm terrified of this matchup against the Broncos.
- [58:46]
Jake Seeley
They pulled a me on me.
- [58:48]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, I mean so Love is, has made a lot of really big plays. He's, he's hit some big ones the last two weeks against the Bears and the Lions. But like the Lions have given up the second most pass plays of 20 or more yards this season. The Bears the third most. Denver's given up the fifth fewest. Like, it's just, it's hard to come by those big plays when you are closing in on the quarterback so quickly as that Denver pass rush does. That leads the league and sacks and pressure rate so little worried that the big plays might not be there for Love this week. I'll, I'll take Darnold even with the concerns about his passing volume.
- [59:26]
Ryan Warmley
Let's go to the tight end one here. How about Mark Andrews or Colston Loveland? Fitz, I'll start with you here.
- [59:32]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Andrews are Loveland against the Bengals?
- [59:35]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I mean like he's been so bad lately. I wanted, when I was putting this, this together, I was like, I'm going to talk about Andrews because he has not been good but he gets the Bengals and I, I need to hear their opinion on this. I mean, because he just played the Bengals two weeks ago and he was tight end 17. He had 4 for 47, no touchdown. Like it was a nothing burger game. So I knew I wanted to include Andrews and I and then the second step was just figuring out who to put him against. But you know. Go ahead, Fitz. I just, I wanted to kind of clarify my mindset here was it's really more about just like where do we have Andrews?
- [60:05]
Jake Seeley
Yeah.
- [60:05]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Which I, I do wish there wasn't a second tight end that might be the one to have the big game. But someone's going to have a big game against the Bengals. Whether it's Andrews or likely and not out of the question that it's both. Cincinnati has given up 1258 receiving yards to tight ends. No other team is allowed more than 933 yards to tight end. Bengals have given up 15 touchdown catches to tight end. No other, no other team has given up more than nine. I just, I don't want to bench a tight end against the Bengals.
- [60:36]
Ryan Warmley
He just for the record, and I'll say this before throwing it to Jake, outside of the Detroit game, which is back in week three, Mark Andrews best game of the season was against the Bengals two weeks ago. But again it was 47 receiving yards. It's the only. His next highest in this. His third highest total on the season is 34 receiving yards and he only has five touchdowns on the year. It just like has not been there and, and the last touchdown was back in week 10. So Jake, who do you like? I mean I'm assuming you like Andrews better, but tell me a little bit about why.
- [61:06]
Jake Seeley
Well, so I was going to say to talk about this game specifically the list of teams to fail to have a tight end score double digits against the Ravens. You ready for this list? Jaguars in week two, Broncos in week four. I'm done. That was it. That was the entire list. And by the way, they've actually given up two games with double digits to two tight ends. The Steelers and the Bills both had two tight ends put up double digit scores against them. So yeah, likely could have the bigger score. Likely, likely has the bigger score. Because the thing with the likely situation, somebody asked me on the discord at the Athletic this morning is you know what he's doing because this is your team Worm. He's kind of filling the DeAndre Hopkins role that they want him to be. But also with Rashad Bateman being banged up, he's essentially like the tight end two slash wide receiver too. And that's kind of who he's been because Isaiah likely is also not the truest tight end in the world and they're taking advantage of that. It's almost like if you threw Kyle Pitts, but actually a Kyle Pitts who can separate onto the Broncos or to Broncos onto the Ravens. So I'm saying all I say there is the huge risk here. I just don't want to start any Bears and I don't want to start any Bears, especially in this matchup. I don't want to start any Bears because Caleb Williams is not throwing a ton because they don't need him to and that's even with potentially no Adunze. So I am going Mark Andrews mostly just because I hope he gets that touchdown which is I think the same thing. We kind of hope for Colson Lovell and that many people are involved. So I'm just going to take the matchup, especially in this one.
- [62:34]
Ryan Warmley
Here's what I'll say about Mark Andrews.
- [62:35]
Jake Seeley
Gonna make you feel better.
- [62:36]
Ryan Warmley
He, he. Well I was. He had a 35 yard rushing touchdown against the Browns. That very fluky, fun, you know, fake tush push play. They ran 35 yards rushing, touchdown. That play alone would be his third best yardage game of the season.
- [62:53]
Jake Seeley
Do you like Margaret or not?
- [62:56]
Ryan Warmley
I like the guy. He's a great, you know, representative in the community. He's going to be a Ravens ring of honor player. They just extended him for some reason. He just has not been productive and he hasn't been getting the touchdowns to, to make up for the lack of yardage and I, I mean the whole offense has just been so broken for so much of this season and he is also not really done as. I mean he's even like knocking like Lamar should have had the go ahead touchdown pass against the Steelers and it was going to Hopkins and Andrews like knocked it down. I don't know if you guys saw this angle. Hopkins was wide open. That one that Andrews dropped behind Andrews like him.
- [63:29]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Yeah, that was bad.
- [63:30]
Ryan Warmley
And like it's just Lamar put his.
- [63:33]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Hands on his helmet. Like I can't believe he just did that.
- [63:35]
Ryan Warmley
Yes, basically since the drop to lose to the Bills in the playoffs last year, it's like nothing, right. Nothing has gone right for Mark Andrews. It feels like. So yeah, I just get nervous about that. Even against the Bengals, you can say goodbye to Start Sit dilemmas with Fantasy Pro Start Sit Assistant within seconds you'll know exactly who to play for optimal results each and every week. Leveraging insights from numerous experts, the Start Sit Assistant aligns your lineup decisions with the top minds in fantasy football, giving you a competitive edge. Maximize your lineup's potential with just a few clicks. Head to fantasypros.com myplaybook or download the Fantasy Pros app and make winning decisions in no time. Let's get to our touchdown calls for the week. But first join our free touchdown calls contest in the Fantasy Pros discord. Each week, pick four players you think will score with a bonus flex worth double weekly winners get a 25 Fantasy Pros gift card and the season champ takes home a signed Bijan Robinson jersey. Play now by going to fantasyprose.com chat and heading to the touchdown calls channel. I am on running back this week. I will go with Travis Etn. He has been scoring touchdowns at 2 last week. Looks like it could be like a real league winner here in the last month of the season for the Jags. So I will take ETN here. I've been kind of trying to take like lower ranked guys lately. I'm going with somebody that's ranked inside the top 12 at their position. I'm going with Travis ETN. Jake, you are on receivers this week.
- [64:56]
Jake Seeley
Yeah. And honestly, this doesn't feel like the layup people might think by the name. And that's why I wanted to take it because I could have gone super layup, but I'm making this a little bit difficult. Whether or not Ceedee Lamb plays, I'm going with George Pickens and I'm not going with the matchup because the Vikings, by the way, I was just looking at the last time they gave up a touchdown to a wide receiver. Week nine, just Jameson Williams. That's the last time they've done it. Yeah, that's including the Ravens, the Bears, the packers, the Seahawks, and then of course that debacle last week where we rolled out Jaden Daniels for whatever reason. So it's not an easy matchup. Like, it's kind of funny how that defense, every single year it seems to go through ebbs and flows. It's like starts super hot and then people figure it out in the middle of the season and then he adjusts back and then all of a sudden the Vikings defense is good again. They're on the good side of things. But I think that George Pickens and Dak Prescott and this team is going to be looking to pass and get Pickens back on track. Who also, by the way we talk about lost plays, would have had over 100 yards and a touchdown in that game last week if not for PI and that bad play between those two alone. So I'm going with Pickens. Whether or not CD Lamb plays, I want to see him get back in the end zone.
- [65:57]
Ryan Warmley
ETN for me. Pickens for Jake Fitz. Who are you taking at tight end?
- [66:01]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Harold Fannin Jr. He's had a touchdown catch in two straight games. He makes it three in a row this week against the Bears.
- [66:08]
Jake Seeley
I love it.
- [66:08]
Ryan Warmley
Where's Fannin for you in Dynasty? Fitz?
- [66:10]
Pat Fitzmaurice
Oh, in Dynasty.
- [66:11]
Jake Seeley
Tight end alone?
- [66:12]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah.
- [66:13]
Jake Seeley
This is what your question is, I'm assuming.
- [66:14]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. Tight end ranking in Dynasty. Yeah, he's top.
- [66:17]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I think I've got him like fifth.
- [66:20]
Ryan Warmley
Would you rather him or Gadsden? Because Gadsden had like elevated to the top five and then has really just not done anything since that hot couple.
- [66:28]
Jake Seeley
That comes down to. I know because Fitz is looking. So I'll jump in. That comes down to like, what are you picking your poison for the future? Because you know it's Herbert, you know it's Herbert and Gadson and then they're probably going to have a big question like Keenan Allen's probably gone again. But now you come down to Fannin. Is it Sanders next year? Do they go right back to the well of trying to make Watson a thing? Do they draft another quarterback again? Like so. So it kind of comes down to, you know, which way. If you want to argue for either fits. I like I would almost put, I would put them back to back at this point with Gatson directly in front of them.
- [67:00]
Pat Fitzmaurice
I've got a back to back. I've got Fan in one spot higher.
- [67:02]
Jake Seeley
And I'm okay with that.
- [67:04]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, they're both in tier two. Tier two is very big in our consensus dynasty rankings. It's tight end four to tight end 11. And they're both in the back half of that range in who's right behind them. Kyle Pitts is the top tier three. Fan is the last name in tier two. Pitts is the top name in tier three.
- [67:20]
Jake Seeley
Okay.
- [67:21]
Ryan Warmley
Ferguson is between the two. Actually it goes Gadsden, then Ferguson.
- [67:24]
Jake Seeley
I would take both of them. Ferguson at this point.
- [67:27]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I would agree with that. I mean there's just the age difference there alone, so. All right. Etn, Pickens and Fannin are our picks. Dominate your fantasy football league with Fantasy Pros Premium now available free for six months when you deposit and place your first wager on one of our partner sportsbooks. This is the easiest way to get full access to our top fantasy tools all season long. Go to fantasypros.com premium to get started. Best of luck here in the fantasy playoffs in Week 15 and beyond for Jake and Fitz. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypro Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [68:41]
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- [69:11]
Coca Cola Announcer
What a matchup we got, y'.
- [69:12]
Jake Seeley
All.
- [69:13]
Coca Cola Announcer
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- [69:33]
Jake Seeley
Mmm.
- [69:33]
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- [71:15]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.