FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Week 16 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, and Must-Starts (Ep. 1905)

Release Date: December 18, 2025
Host: Chris Welsh
Guests: Pat Fitzmaurice (“Fitzy”), Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the most crucial running back decisions for Week 16's fantasy football playoffs. The crew, Chris Welsh, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Andrew Erickson, break down their top-36 RB rankings, debate key starts and sits, and discuss which “must-starts,” sleepers, and risky bets could swing fantasy semifinals. If you’re agonizing over lineup choices with injuries and committee backfields, this is your essential episode.

Top Themes

• Drafting for RB stability and injury chaos
• Tiers and key debates among RB1s, RB2s, and flex options
• Unpacking tough matchups, injuries, and surprise starters
• High-leverage lineup calls, with direct comparison among contentious backfields

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Comfort of RB Stability in the Playoffs

• (00:41) The show opens with Chris Welsh musing on the luxury of not having to stress over RBs during the playoffs and how next year's draft strategies might shift accordingly.

  • “Doesn't it feel good to just not have questions around running back?...It’s actually a little more comforting than wide receiver because there's just so much depth and so many players you could have picked off of the wire that now have startability.” — Chris Welsh [01:42]

• Andrew Erickson shares his own RB stress:

  • Breece Hall has been his RB1, but in some leagues he’s considering scraping by with Audric Estime or even Michael Carter as flexes.
  • “...if the chips fall in my favor I might be starting Audrey Estimate in that league.” — Andrew Erickson [01:28]

Top 12 RBs for Week 16: Chalk and Key Debates

Ranked Order:

• Bijan Robinson (Cardinals), Devon Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Bucky Irving, Derrick Henry, TreVeyon Henderson ([03:44]).

Derrick Henry: High Debate Against the Patriots

• Erickson is bullish (RB7) citing defensive injuries:

  • “Since [the Patriots] lost Milton Williams, this run defense has been bad, dare I say buns.” — Andrew Erickson [04:32]
  • Notes: Patriots have allowed a 50+ yard rusher every game post-injury; James Cook just went off as RB1 against NE.

• Fitz has Henry lower (RB12), highlighting TD dependence:

  • “My biggest concern is that the Ravens just aren’t scoring a lot of points...He’s just not scoring touchdowns at the same rate.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [07:08]

• Henry vs. Etienne Dilemma:

  • Erickson leans slightly Henry, but both agree it’s close, and injury reports on Patriots defenders could shift Henry higher (06:27).

TreVeyon Henderson: Snap Share Worries?

• Fitz notes Henderson’s efficiency outweighs limited snap share:

  • “He doesn’t need 20 touches a game to do a lot of damage...just get him those 15 touches and he’s going to do a lot with them.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [08:53]

• Erickson lowers him (RB15) due to tough Ravens matchup and goal-line work shared with Stevenson:

  • “This is the toughest matchup they’ve drawn in a couple weeks…You always can be afraid of, oh, they’re at the goal line. Oh, what do you know, Ramondre Stevenson touchdown.” — Andrew Erickson [10:11]

RB2s and Flex Tiers: Volume, Matchups, and Red Flags

• Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, DeAndre Swift, Woody Marks, Quinshon Judkins, RJ Harvey, Tyrone Tracy, Aaron Jones, Breece Hall, Amarian Hampton, Rico Dowdle
• Breakdowns and RB Starts to Watch:
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns, RB18):
    • Fitzy: Very skeptical due to “empty rushing volume” (3.1 YPC since Week 6, banged-up O-line) [16:30].
    • Erickson: Sees volume upside—16+ opportunities in 10 of 12 games, and possible O-line reinforcements [17:48].
    • “You just have to chase potential ceiling and if he's going to see north of 20 carries...there is a ceiling spot.” — Andrew Erickson [18:09]
  • Tyrone Tracy (Giants, RB20):
    • Both now confident Tracy has earned the bulk role (76% snap share last game), even if Singletary steals some red zone work.
    • “I think Tracy’s kind of locked in as a pretty strong back-end RB2 play.” — Andrew Erickson [20:44]
    • Fitzy: Both Tracy and Singletary flex plays vs. MIN (biggest run-funnel defense) [21:08].
  • Aaron Jones (RB21):
    • Both cautious despite a “five-star matchup” vs. the Giants due to injury/committee risk.
    • “I just think you can never be too high on Aaron Jones...” — Andrew Erickson [23:20]

Rico Dowdle: In Committee Trouble

• “I think with Rico Dowdle the concern is there’s a game script where it goes really bad for him...That doesn’t necessarily benefit a guy like Rico Dowdle who is still seeding snaps to Chuba Hubbard.” — Andrew Erickson [24:33]
• Fitz pushes him outside RB2 range: “Aside from sharing more work...Rico Dowdle’s averaged 3.2 or fewer yards per carry in four of his last five games.” [26:10]

Risky Flex Plays and Waiver Sleepers

• Running Back 25–36: Key Names and Analysis
  • Michael Carter (Arizona, RB28): Huge ranking gap:
    • Fitz’s RB19: bullish on a near “workhorse” role with Bam Knight out — “Carter was a workhorse...53 snaps...He has got dual run/catch versatility.” [29:20]
    • Erickson’s RB32: Thinks it will be a 50/50 split with Demercado returning — “We’ve seen the Cardinals go back to their hierarchy before.” [30:12]
    • Carter now “start over Judkins” for Fitzy [31:59].
  • Blake Corum (Rams, RB32):
    • Fitz: Points to continued double-digit touches and explosive YPC numbers recently, but limited pass game role and still a split snap share [32:52].
    • Erickson: “Last time we saw Rams play Seahawks, Corum was terrible, but he had three goal line attempts.” [34:16]
  • Bill Croskey Merritt (Washington, RB33):
    • Erickson: Only a play if Chris Rodriguez is inactive; “...bill, thank you for getting me to my semifinals, but here’s the bench.” [35:54]
    • Both would move him into “top-30 if solo,” but lower than Corum due to three-way committee risk if Rodriguez is back [37:19].

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Since they lost Milton Williams, this [Patriots] run defense has been bad, dare I say buns.” — Andrew Erickson [04:32]
• “He hasn’t scored a touchdown, which has been the reason why he’s been kept out of the top 10. But before that, three straight top 10 finishes. So I’m trying to wrap my mind around how Derek Henry’s not a top 10 running back this week.” — Andrew Erickson [05:16]
• “TreVeyon Henderson doesn’t need 20 touches a game to do a lot of damage. This is a dude who’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has scored seven touchdowns in his last five games.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [08:53]
• “If someone asks you, do I start Judkins or Michael Carter? You are committed to saying Michael Carter?” — Chris Welsh [31:53] | “I am committed. Sorry, I can’t move off that.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [31:59]
• “You just have to chase potential ceiling and if he’s going to see north of 20 carries against the Bills run defense, there is a ceiling spot.” — Andrew Erickson on Judkins [18:09]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:41] Draft comfort: RB vs. WR depth planning
• [03:44] Top 12 Week 16 RBs unveiled
• [04:32] Erickson’s high conviction case for Derrick Henry
• [07:08] Fitz’s TD skepticism on Henry
• [08:53] Discussion: TreVeyon Henderson’s role
• [10:11] Henderson’s cap vs. the Ravens
• [16:30] Judkins: Empty volume concerns debate
• [19:38] Tyrone Tracy’s late-season rise
• [22:49] Cautiously optimistic: Aaron Jones vs. Giants
• [24:33] Rico Dowdle’s role and risk against TB
• [28:19] Michael Carter debate: Playoff sleeper or risk?
• [32:52] Blake Corum, recent surge and volume
• [35:54] Bill Croskey Merritt: Only viable if main competitors out

Final Thoughts and Tone

The episode maintains a lively, stats-driven, conversational banter, with Erickson often “pounding the table” for high-volume risk/reward plays, Fitzy bringing cautious, context-sensitive risk assessment, and Welsh deftly steering and recapping for listeners. Bold calls (e.g., Carter > Judkins this week) and “who do I start?” debates become the heart of the episode, making it ideal for start/sit decision-makers facing semifinal dilemmas.

If you missed the in-depth breakdowns, tune in to their Thursday YouTube live for last-minute playoff lineup advice.

Best of luck in your semifinals! For deeper, real-time updates (including injury surprises), visit fantasypros.com/rankings and join the Thursday Start/Sit show on YouTube.