Week 16 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, and Must-Starts (Ep. 1904)

Summary

FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast - Week 16 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings & Tiers

Episode 1904 | December 17, 2025

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Overview

This episode, hosted by Chris Welsh with analysts Pat Fitzmaurice ("Fitzy") and Andrew Erickson, dives into the top 36 wide receiver rankings for Week 16—the fantasy semifinals. The trio breaks down key receiver tiers, must-starts, sleepers, and how QB changes/uncertainty are impacting the landscape. They debate shaky situations (think: Justin Jefferson’s woes), dissect the return of fantasy standouts, and answer the crucial start/sit dilemmas facing fantasy managers in the playoffs.

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Key Discussion Points

Wide Receiver Consistency in the Playoffs

• QB Volatility Impact: Early on, Erickson and Welsh lament how QB changes are throwing projections into flux—specifically referencing Justin Jefferson and broader confidence in ranking WRs.

  • “We want consistency. That gives us the most confidence as we rank these players on a week-to-week basis because when you incorporate more variance into a certain player’s outlook, it creates a very tough ranking of that particular player for the upcoming week.” (Erickson, 01:13)

• Justin Jefferson Example: Questioning if star WRs like Jefferson, facing poor defenses, can overcome their situations.

  • “There’s a super talented wide receiver. Here’s the worst defense in the league. Something’s got to give.” (Welsh, 01:52)

ECR Accuracy & FantasyPros Internal Leaderboard (03:45–06:53)

• Top Rankers: Derek Brown wins the week for most accurate rankings, especially due to a bullish call on Mike Evans.
  • “He’s the hardest working person in fantasy sports...The guy doesn’t sleep some nights during the week.” (Erickson, 04:16)
• Self-deprecating Banter about their own finishes, showing the camaraderie and grind behind-the-scenes at FantasyPros.
  • “Quarterback was hard for everyone. I was like 154th at quarterback this last week...” (Fitz, 05:27)

Top 12 Wide Receivers & Major Decision Points (08:35–15:46)

Mike Evans – Still a Top Play? (08:53)

• ECR Has Evans at WR8, both hosts a tad lower—Erickson at WR9, Fitz at WR11.
• Debate:
  • Fitzy's Doubt:
    “Evans had 12 targets last week… with two other very good receivers there...We probably shouldn’t count on many more 35% target shares. And [Baker] Mayfield... it’s the first time in over a month he's thrown for 200+ yards."
  • Erickson's Optimism:
    “Every time [Evans] is on the field, Baker Mayfield was like, where’s Mike Evans?... Even if he doesn’t see that 35% target share, you know that Baker Mayfield is looking for him when they get in the red zone.” (10:23)

Rashee Rice – Is He Still Safe with Gardner Minshew at QB? (12:12)

• Current ECR: WR11, both have him just outside: Erickson at 12, Fitz at 13.
• Erickson:
  • “Chiefs are facing the Titans—one of the worst defenses... Their secondary is eviscerated... Yes, Gardner Minshew is a downgrade, but the Chiefs aren’t going to just stop throwing.”
• Fitzy:
  • “Minshew has not been a complete train wreck... I think he can keep the Chiefs offense on the rails, especially in this soft matchup.” (14:38)

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Major WR2 and Flex Debates (15:46–32:18)

Jalen Waddle in Free Fall Without Tua? (16:18)

• Now has rookie Quinn Ewers at QB vs. Bengals.
  • Fitzy (WR17):
    “Can things really be that much worse with Quinn Ewers?...Waddle’s had 52 or fewer yards in 4 straight games. Tua’s thrown fewer than 30 passes in 5 straight games. The offense has been really buttoned down."
  • Erickson (WR29):
    “Do we want to play his wide receivers? Seventh-round rookie QB making his first NFL start... Waddle has only gone over 53 yards once in 11 games without Tua.” (18:24)

Juwan Jennings – Replacement Niner, Emergency WR Start? (20:12)

• Both are high; Fitzy (15), Erickson (16).
  • Erickson:
    “He’s a smash type of play. I could see moving him up even higher... Jennings has been on a touchdown streak in the red zone. No Slick Rick and no Sauce Garner for the Colts.” (21:16)
  • Fitzy:
    “Upper end WR2... Jennings is going to be the wide receiver one. Just a matter of how much he has to share with Bourne, Robinson, Kittle.” (24:12)

Cortland Sutton – Trending Up or Trap? (25:48)

• Split views – Erickson (WR18), Fitzy (WR21).
  • Fitzy's Caution:
    "Trying to keep an even keel with Cortland Sutton... there have been lulls to his season, so I just don’t want to get too high on him based on recent results.” (25:53)
  • Erickson's Buy:
    "After their bye week... 10+ targets back to back... How do you attack the Jaguars? You throw on them. Bo Nix looked fantastic last week, I think Sutton is a really strong play.” (27:08)

Lad McConkey – Boom/Bust vs. Cowboys (28:57)

• Erickson (WR22), Fitzy (WR25)
  • Erickson:
    "Where does Lad line up? Slot. Who caught two touchdowns against Dallas last week? Jalen Nailor. This game has the highest total on the slate...Ladd has a much better chance of hitting a 30-point type of game.” (28:57)
  • Fitzy:
    "The idea of a 30-point game for McConkey seems pie in the sky... Last 4 games, 10 catches for 84 yards and 1 TD... The Chargers O-line is duct-taped.” (30:21)
    Notably answers start/sit: “Ladd McConkey or Jaden Reed? Someone asked me that the other day, I’d start Ladd.”

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Wide Receiver 3s, Sleepers & Trap Plays (33:46–43:22)

Jaden Reed – PPR Safe or Volume Trap? (34:29)

• ECR: WR26, Fitzy (31), Erickson (23)
  • Erickson:
    "Christian Watson may not play... Bears are the worst defense vs slot WRs... We’ve seen Jaden Reed have blow-up games before."
  • Fitzy:
    "He has seen more than six targets in only seven of his 40 games… Reed just typically doesn’t play in two receiver sets.” (36:10)

D.J. Moore – Old Reliable, or Just Old? (37:28)

• Low outside WR3 for both, ECR: 33, Fitzy: 35, Erickson: 30
  • Fitzy, The Grinch:
    "Still hasn’t had more than 5 catches or 73 yards in a game all season...3.1 catches and 40.5 yards per game.” (38:15)
  • Erickson:
    "I’m more optimistic... DJ Moore has been a really good NFL player for most of his career. If Burden is out and it’s just DJ Moore and Colston Loveland, I think Moore can be a WR3.” (39:12)

Adonai Mitchell (AD Mitchell) – Risky Jet (41:27)

• Erickson: WR31, Fitzy: 41
  • Erickson:
    "Six plus targets in five straight games with three different quarterbacks... He’s established as the WR1 in the Jets offense. If they’re losing, Mitchell should see more volume."
  • Fitzy:
    "I’m just worried about playing receivers tied to Brady Cook... For the season, Mitchell’s catch rate is 45%. There’s definitely downside here."

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "We want consistency. That gives us the most confidence as we rank these players" – Andrew Erickson (01:13)
• "There’s a super talented wide receiver. Here’s the worst defense in the league. Something’s got to give." – Chris Welsh on Justin Jefferson (01:52)
• "He’s the hardest working person in fantasy sports, in fantasy football. You guys don’t know what he has to go through to put out the primer every single week..." – Andrew Erickson, about Derek Brown (04:16)
• "Evans had 12 targets last week… We probably shouldn’t count on many more 35% target shares." – Pat Fitzmaurice (09:06)
• "Yes, Gardner Minshew is a downgrade, but the Chiefs aren’t going to just stop throwing the football." – Andrew Erickson (13:09)
• "Juwan Jennings has been on a touchdown streak... No Slick Rick and no Sauce Gardner for the Colts." – Andrew Erickson (21:16)
• "Can things really be that much worse with Quinn Ewers? ... Waddle’s had 52 or fewer yards in 4 straight games." – Pat Fitzmaurice (16:46)
• "Do we want to play his wide receivers? Seventh-round rookie QB making his first NFL start..." – Andrew Erickson (18:24)
• "[Ladd] has much better chance of hitting a 30-point type of game. Given the matchup and the talent of the player." – Andrew Erickson (28:57)

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Head-to-Head Start/Sit Calls (Interspersed)

• Lad McConkey vs. Jaden Reed: Both favor Ladd slightly due to matchup and upside.
• Lad McConkey vs. Jacoby Myers/Chris Godwin: Prefer Ladd.
• Jaden Reed: Only a WR3/flex if Christian Watson is out (Fitzy), high-upside slot play if in need (Erickson).
• DJ Moore: Only viable if other CHI weapons (Burden/Comet) are out (Erickson), still hard to trust (Fitz).

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Opening, ECR Overview, What the Playoff Field Looks Like: 00:32–06:53
• Top 12 (WR1) Tier Discussion: 08:35–15:46
• Debate: Evans, Rice, Sutton, McConkey, Waddle: 08:53–32:18
• Wide Receiver 3s & Sleepers: 33:46–43:22

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Podcast Tone and Style

• Conversational, comedic, and stats-driven: The hosts poke fun at each other, celebrate their team’s internal leaderboard, but always weave in actionable stats and matchup analysis for each WR discussed.
• Direct addresses to listeners about start/sit dilemmas, with recognition of both “newbies” and grizzled fantasy managers.
• Transparent about the uncertainty that playoff season brings—and honest about where even the experts get tripped up.

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Takeaways

• Mike Evans and Rashee Rice are must-plays even with some concerns, given matchup, volume, and red-zone threat.
• Volume outliers (e.g., Adonai Mitchell, Juwan Jennings) are legitimate pivots, especially if injuries/opportunity align.
• “QB Volatility” is the defining challenge at WR this year—managers must factor floor/ceiling swings into every decision.
• Don’t sleep on WRs facing the Titans (Rashee Rice) or the Bears from the slot (Jaden Reed).
• Contextualize each WR: Injury report, offensive philosophy, and even play-caller hinting matters.

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For a full rankings list, visit fantasypros.com/rankings
Catch their live streams for answers to your “but what about X WR?” questions—especially with start/sits getting even hairier as the playoffs heat up!

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Nicotine is an addictive chemical. What's up friends and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the fantasy Football Podcast Week 16 or the semifinals of your fantasy playoffs Wide receiver ranks episode. I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson here where we are going to be going through the top 36 wide receivers, the plays, the starts and Erickson. Hopefully most of these wide receivers can keep the quarterback that they usually have have not having quarterback changes, you know, like two hours ago with a guy that has no career starts or anything like that and completely ruining value. Not that I'm talking about a very specific wide receiver, Erickson, but we hope they can at least keep the same pass throwers.

[C]

Yeah, we want consistency. That gives us the most confidence as we rank these players on a week to week basis because when you incorporate more variance into a certain player's outlook, it creates a very tough ranking of that particular player for the upcoming week.

[B]

Yeah, or you know, if the guy's name is Justin Jefferson, just in general. Fitzy doesn't matter. Titanic, remember all the Titanic. We are going down with the ship. And he's, he's at least in the 20s this week. Fitz, I don't know if you feel any different. We don't really have him on the list to talk about because what's there to talk about? Look, there's a super talented wide receiver. Here's the worst defense in the league. Something's got to give. Yeah, it's always catches to Justin Jefferson. So maybe this, this will be the week. But I don't know how you feel about him this week. Fitzy.

[A]

Not great. Not great. Well, I mean you would think he would at least be outperforming Jordan Addison and Jalen Naylor. And we can't even use JJ McCarthy as an excuse anymore because McCarthy has actually had two pretty decent games in a row.

[B]

Pretty cool. This is the state. This is the state. If hopefully we're going to be talking about the players that you do have questions about for your playoff run. We did, I did a poll on the Tuesday stream. We do over on our Twitch. By the way, you guys should hang out with us Twitch TV fantasy pros. And I asked him like, how many people are in your first ever playoffs? So these are probably like new people. And then how many people, like, what's your most amount of leagues? And it was shocking the amount of hands raised in the live stream of people that were first time playing and making the playoffs. And then when you saw the amount of playoffs, the more regulars had. We had people that are like, I'm in like five of seven leagues and seven of 10 leagues. And the reason I bring it up is it puts into perspective when you start to talk about some of the players because everybody on the planet's like, well, there's no chance you're in the playoffs anymore if you had Justin Jefferson, da da da. And you're like, you'd be surprised. You'd be surprised at a lot of the team construction and some of the players that feel like they've been big disappointments but can still be viable for your coming week. So we're going to talk about those players, just not Justin Jefferson and a whole lot more. Before we do, we always celebrate the ranks contest. ECR is where you can check the expert consensus ranks and each week we've got winners on that. And this is leading up to the end of the year contest where you know the top 10 who are the most accurate rankers throughout the season. Week 15, a star was born. Gentlemen, we're gonna work our way up because coming in at 3 was Justin Jaxa from Dr. Roto. Hopefully I said that correctly. Christopher. What was it again? Erickson? I screwed it up.

[C]

Jimino.

[B]

Jimino. Jimino from Roto Grinders and great first name. Christopher. Jimino was number two. Apologies for the pronunciation. But number one this week, it's not Andrew Erickson. It's not Pitts, Fat Pat, Fitz Morris.

[C]

I can't speak.

[B]

It's not me. Of course, the one and only Derrick Brown with the number one overall rank finish this week. The king of bros D, bro. He's not here to celebrate. But Erickson, are you proud of your baby boy?

[C]

Yeah, I couldn't be more proud for Derek Brown. For, for my money's worth, I think that he's one of the. He's the hardest working person in fantasy sports, in fantasy football. You guys don't know what he has to go through to put out the primer every single week where the guy doesn't sleep some nights during the week. So I think it's more than well deserved. Puts the work in and it shows up, especially here in week 15, when we need it the most. And I know that one guy in particular, Derek Brown, was telling everybody to start on Thursday night was Mike Evans. And that really shifted things in his perspective and won people a lot of leagues last week because it's always kind of scary with those guys coming back from injuries. But he was very bullish on Mike Evans, and now we're going to talk about Evans as well. ECR is catching up to Mike Evans this week, but Derrick Brown, as he always is, was ahead of the curve last week, I believe.

[B]

Fitzy, Debra was also a Kyle Pitts guy, if I'm remembering correctly. I think he was pretty. I mean, I'm not sure that people, like, weren't starting him or anything like that, but I'm pretty sure he was high on him. Debra did not rank well at quarterback, but who cares, because check this out for the week. He was four fourth and running back, third in wide receiver, and 12th and tight end. So he is a starter in the three big skill positions outside of quarterback, and that's what got him to the number one spot.

[A]

Fitzy, yeah, he killed it. I believe it was DBRO's second top, second number one finish this year. He did it once before. There was a week where it was a clean fantasy pro sweep much earlier in the season, but. And quarterback was hard for everyone. I was like a hundred. I was like 154th at quarterback this last week. I had no idea what I was doing at quarterback.

[B]

But we are proud. And, you know, you might be like, you guys are spending more time on it. It's like, well, yeah, internally we love to see our guys succeed. And Debro is one of the hardest workers, literally. Whatever you think goes into the primer, you're wrong. More goes into it. So DBRO is one of the hardest workers, I can promise you that. But we got a couple other great dudes in here. I mean, Fitz is one of the greatest dudes on the planet, but he knows he had a bad week when I finished higher than him. So Fitz, get them next time. But Mike mayer with a 16th overall finish and Andrew Erickson with a 17th overall finish. So top 20. Stupid mayor, but wonderful. Erickson. Erickson in the top.

[C]

He had to beat me by one spot, though, so. Not happy with it.

[B]

What. What was the. What got you the. The high rank this week? What do you think? Who were you high on?

[C]

Corey Crosby. Merritt moved him up significantly after we got this. Chris Rudd. He was actually a reason why I won one of my matchups. Benched Breece hall put JCM in and Bill came through for me. So that was a big win for me with the running back position. I know that was one of the things that kind of shifted in my favor.

[B]

Jakory Krosky. Cash money, baby. Love it. All right, so there you go. You guys want to check it out? Go to fantasypros.com rankings to see the overall but you can also check out the accuracy which shows the full season and then it shows the week 15. A lot of other great rankers are in there. We always celebrate the top three and any shout outs to any any big finishes from our peoples in here. All right, we're going to get to the ranks. Last thing to do though, this little giveaway and if you want a chance to win a Bijan Robinson and Drake London sign mini helmet for free courtesy of our friends [e-mail] go to fantasypros.com contest, fill out the form. Then you can either also download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review on the podcast, follow us on our socials x Instagram or TikTok. It's all antasyprose. The more actions you do, the more entries you're going to receive and then we'll be announcing a winner here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, make sure you're subscribed. Turn on notifications so you are alerted when new episodes are up and you can claim the prize. Uniquely cool. One of the cooler ones we've done. I mean we always do like cool helmet or jersey. This is a dual sign. Drake London and Bijan Robinson. So absolutely love that. Thank you to Pristine Auction and thank you to you guys for hanging with us. It's rank time. Fantasybros.com rankings to follow along. Wide receivers. Here is the big board. Our top 12 for the week comes in with Puka Nukua at number one. Jamar Chase, Jackson Smith and Jigba Amon Ross St Brown, Nico Collins and CD Lam. Is your top six coming in at seven. Michael Wilson, Mike Evans, AJ Brown, Jameson Williams, Rasheed Rice and Chris Olave. Core players but bigger decisions are to be had. 2 I think really important ones we should talk about in this range and I think a lot of people were woken up to this via the live streams that I did earlier in the week and then seeing where Mike Evans ends up being ranked, a lot of people are like would you do Mike Evans or this? Would you do Mike Evans or that? ECR is telling us Mike Evans is the must of must plays with wide receiver eight this week, both of you are slightly lower. Erickson's at 9. Fitzy, you're at 11. You guys both still have him as a wide receiver. One Fitzy, why don't you hit us with some Mike Evans love?

[A]

Yeah. So 12 targets, six catches, 132 yards in his first game back. And Mike Evans looked like Mike Evans. No issues there. I guess the reason I don't have Evans ranked in the top 10 is. Well, there are actually two reasons. First, Evans had 12 targets last week, and Emek Egbuca and Chris Godwin combined for 12 targets. So Evans target share against the Falcons was 35.3%. Since he plays with two other good receivers, we probably shouldn't count on many more 35% target shares. And second, Baker Mayfield threw for 277 yards in that game. It's actually the first time in more than a month that Baker Mayfield has thrown for more than 200 yards in a game. It was his highest yardage total since week five. He had been in a slump. Maybe Evans return is a slump buster for Mayfield, gets him out of that slump for good. I'm just not 100% sure Mayfield is out of it yet, sir.

[B]

You got him a little bit higher. I mean, I think the thing that kind of floats out to everybody is like all the pass catchers are back, you know, so there's potentially the ball can kind of fly around a little bit more. But we saw the concerted effort for the ball to get to Evans. We know he's going to be a red zone option. You got him at nine. So you're kind of in agreement with the aggressive ECR rank for week 16 on Mike Evans.

[C]

Yeah, because I think that when we got the reports that he was going to be on a snap count, that wasn't totally wrong. He wasn't playing all the snaps, but every time he's on the field, Baker Mayfield was like, where's Mike Evans? That's who I'm throwing the football too. And I'm actually lower on Godwin this week. I think that he's the one that's kind of feeling the target squeeze because he ran the most routes, he played the most snaps, and he was the least about involved. He bailed out fantasy managers last week because he scored that touchdown. Are we gonna go two weeks in a row or Mike Evans doesn't score a touchdown? So even if he doesn't see that 35% target share, you know that Baker Mayfield is looking for him. When they get into the red zone, these Carolina Buccaneers games can get kind of wacky in terms of if both teams are just looking, hey, we're going to stop the run. We're just going to throw the ball 40 times on each side. So this could be a high scoring game. And Mike Evans, look, he's missed so much time. He's fresh, like his body's not beat up. He is ready to go against these teams that have played 16, 17 weeks of NFL football. And Mike Evans looked like spring chicken on Thursday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons. So I think Evans is, look, he's probably not going to get to a thousand yards, but he's going to try.

[B]

So they're going to try to get.

[C]

As many yards as he can get. So I think that doesn't go unnoticed here. So Mike Evans, top 10 guy, must.

[B]

Start also not unnoticed. But it just clicked to me. Erickson, 100 looks like you look like you're in a boy band. I did not. You've got the. If you're listening on the podcast, it's like this brown hoodie with a green jacket. You've got the matching green beanie with the hair coming out.

[C]

I wore the beanie because I'm trying to channel Derrick Brown's ranking prowess because he's rocking these beanies on the shows and in the waiver shorts that he does. And yeah, I'm just trying to channel that type of that beanie energy.

[B]

You kind of a boy band. So, Erickson, tell me, why is rasheed rice wide receiver 11 this week when he doesn't have a quarterback? That's the big question. I think Rashi Rice is actually more, way more than Mike Evans. It does horrible singing, by the way. More than Mike Evans. Rasheed Rice is going to be the one that I think is going. A lot of people are going to feel compelled to get out of the lineup with Gardner Minshew. I kind of disagree a little bit, and maybe both of your ranks are kind of telling the same story because you guys are both around ECR, but he's definitely less enticing. So wide receiver 11, Erickson, you've got him at 12. Fitzy's got him at 13. Tell me why you, Erickson, tell me why me?

[C]

Well, I am in the boy band, so of course I'm what's going to lead us off here and then I'll shake it to Fitzy. So with Rice, I think that lasts to do with the matchup, right? They're facing the Tennessee Titans of the worst defenses in the NFL that lost three safeties last week and an additional cornerback. So their secondary is kind of eviscerated with injuries. And look, yes, Garda Minshu is a obvious downgrade from Patrick Mahomes, but I don't think that the changing quarterback means the mo. The Chiefs are just going to stop throwing the football. Like this team has the highest pass rate over expectation under Andy Reid. And I don't think that they're going to look at the next three weeks and think, you know what, let's just give Cream hunt the ball 30 times and just get out of here, right? Let's just end this. I just don't think that's the case here. I think that hey, some of these guys are going to try to play for some pride here as they try to finish the season strong. Garter Minshew, like the guy likes to sling it. Like the guy likes to have fun. He's a fun quarterback. So I think that yes the downgrade is significant, but you have to value that. The efficiency might not fall off that much considering the matchup against the Tennessee Titans and Chiefs offensive line all banged up. What does that mean? More quick hitters to guys like Rashi Rice. Like Xavier Worthy is the guy I'm like. I mean we could barely start him with Mahomes as the quarterback so like not touching him in any capacity near a fantasy lineup. But I think guys like Rice and Kelsey, I don't think that you're like valuing them so significantly different without Mahomes in the lineup in this particular game.

[B]

Because it is the Tennessee Titans, our OG boy band. Pat Fitzmorris, the leader of the ranked street boys here. What do you think about Rasheed Rice? I kind of agree. I think like it's going to be a lot of volume from from Minshew. Maybe it's not going to be super sexy. So full ppr. He might be a little bit more enticing than half but where are you at on Rasheed Rice?

[A]

Yeah, I mean Minshew has not been a complete train wreck as a quarterback in in past extended stints as a starter. He has been at least a guy. If you're not actually starting Minshew himself in fantasy, you at least felt okay about starting his top pass catchers with Minshew at quarterback. So I think he can keep the Chiefs offense on the rails especially in this soft matchup against the injury riddled Titans. And you know Rice has averaged 9.8 targets, 6.6 catches, 71.4 yards a game this season with six touchdowns in eight games. Now the touchdown outlook may well be diminished with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but I I think the volume is there and Erickson made the the great point. You fear for Xavier worthy matchup. You don't fear as much for Rasheed Rice with the easier completions. I think so, yeah. I mean maybe if you're in a Guillotine league and you have three other top 10 options at wide receiver, then maybe you consider starting Rice because of the QB switch. But in most leagues you're playing him and I think you should feel okay about it.

[B]

All right, Wide receiver twos These are the 13 through 24 ranked wideouts. We've got George Pickens coming in at 13. Kind of a dude. That might be one of those interesting if you had George Pickens and you started him, are you still in the playoff situation? So he comes in at 13, Jalen Waddle at 14. That is who we're going to talk about first and might be on a free fall. DK Metcalf, Juwan Jennings, Tedroa McMillan, Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton at 19, Terry McLaurin at 20, followed by DeVonta Smith, Lad McConkey, Justin Jefferson and Jacoby Myers. Jalen Waddle is the wide receiver of the hour to talk about because it was announced that Tua Tagoviola is out. Quinn Ewers is in.

[C]

Ew.

[B]

That doesn't feel good. So it is a theoretically good matchup, but it's Quinn Ewers, so yuck, he's wide receiver 14. Fitzyou got him at 17 and let's save Erickson's rank for super surprise after you do this. So you're lower than consensus. Do you think you're going to go a little bit lower? And do you think the ECR is going to start to tumble?

[A]

Yeah, I mean so I do think the ECR is going to start to tumble. While it might tumble past where I have to at 17. But my case is that can can things really be that much worse with Quinn Ewers? And I don't think Quinn yours is a good quarterback. Don't think he was a good QB prospect coming out of Texas, but Waddles had 52 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games and Tua has he's thrown fewer than 30 passes in five straight games and in four of those games he threw 23 or fewer passes. They have been a really buttoned down offense. They've been just trying to run the heck out of the ball with Devon Achan pretty much lately. So maybe things open up a little bit and look, Waddle is the only game in town at wide receiver for the Dolphins, pretty much. I mean they've got Darren Waller, who is basically a glorified wide receiver in a tight end designation. Malik Washington, like kind of a non factor. So if he throws to a wide receiver, it's probably going to be Waddle. And I don't feel significantly worse about Waddle with Quinn yours than I did about Waddle with to a tongue of a Tonga vailoa.

[B]

His name's getting us both. Can things get worse? Erickson says hold my chocolate martini because it can. Coming in at 23 or 29. I'm sorry, 29 at wide receiver. Big outs on Jalen Waddle for Erickson. You don't like my chocolate martini reference? Thought I'd get a smart cut either.

[C]

So kind of flew over my okay.

[B]

Yeah, I get to be honest inside.

[C]

So I guess I'm not as optimistic and I don't want to paint the picture that fits his. Oh yeah, yours. Massive upgrade for Jalen Waddle. I guess for me it's just kind of zooming out. Seventh round rookie quarterback making his first start in the NFL. Do we want to play his wide receivers in an offense that. Yes, TUA has been bad over the last month, plus, I mean most of this year, to be totally honest. But a lot of that's just due to a lack of passing volume and that's because Miami knows its offense functions at its best when they're running the football. What do you do against the Bengals? You run the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals. So. And you were making his first start, is it. Yeah, we're going to dial up 35 pass attempts for this rookie quarterback. I don't think that really changes here. So yes, maybe they take a couple more shots downfield because it seemed like that was never going to be the case with tua. I don't know. With tua, Jalen Waddle has been good for the most part and historically speaking, we've seen him play without Tua since 2020-11 games. One time he went over 53 yards receiving and 11 games played. So we have a pretty large sample size of him playing without TUA and it being significantly worse for his fantasy outlook. Rookie quarterback making his first start. Again, not a first round rookie quarterback, not a second round rookie quarterback. A seventh round rookie quarterback making his first start. And then you look at the matchup. Bengals are bad against running backs, bad against tight ends. 5th fewest points allowed to wide receivers all year we've been talking about DJ Turner just locks down the number one guy and the Bengals just get beat by everyone else on the opposing offense. So I think that McDaniel might think, sure, take Waddle away and I'll destroy you with Darren Waller and Devon Hn. So for a lot of those reasons, I'm looking at Waddle. I'm trying to find other options. I think that he's a low upside play this week.

[B]

A solid option. Looks like it's going to be Juwan Jennings. Juwan Jennings ECR wide receiver 16 probably on a lot of teams is going to have been their wide receiver 3 or 4 but he's seen in the wide receiver 2 market helped by I mean we called it Erickson with no like good stat driven stuff. We were just all vibes. We're like Ricky Piercel is going to come out, he's going to bang off the bi week. We were 100% right. But now he's rehearsed and we're not going to see him. So all for just one week. But what that does do is that puts Juwan Jennings kind of back propped back up. The ironic thing about the 49ers offense is it also has the potential to not change anything because you can then just flow like Kendrick Bourne into one of those spots. Marcus Robinson what I'm getting at is it doesn't necessarily indicate that Juan Jennings is going to have an uptick in volume, but he has been a red zone target. You know, he's good for four or five. This is also a solid matchup against a secondary with the Colts that's lesser than and you guys kind of both agree. So Eric's Fitz, he's a tiny bit higher. But Erickson, you got him at 16. Juan Jennings is going to be not just like a solid pivot but kind of a must play this week.

[C]

He's a smash type of play. I could see moving him up even higher. Just depends on the amount of volume that he gets. You know, like kittle source Touchdowns McCaffrey scores touchdowns, but Juwan Jennings has been on a touchdown streak as well, especially in the red zone. No Slick Rick and no sauce garter for Indianapolis Colts. So yeah, you're starting Joann Jennings.

[B]

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[B]

Fitzy same thing you are a tiny bit higher at 15. Do you think there's room to be even more optimistic about Juwan Jennings or just like solid hardcore wide receiver 2?

[A]

Solid hardcore wide receiver 2. But upper end. He has been on a heater with touchdowns, four touchdowns in his last three games, six in his last six, and the yardage totals have been pretty modest. Only once in his last 10 games as Juwan Jennings had more than 54 receiving yards. But if Piersol is out, and it seems like he probably will be, Jennings is going to have an enhanced target outlook against the Colts defense that won't have Charvarius Ward, who's on IR due to multiple concussions, former Niner, Former Niner and may or may not get Sauce Gardner back this week from what was a pretty significant calf injury. So not a bad matchup at all. And Jennings is going to be the wide receiver one. Just a matter of how much he has to share with, as you said. Well, you know, Bourne, demarcus Robinson, George Kittle.

[B]

Yeah, they get annoying sometimes where it's like stop doing the Mahomes thing. Like I don't need nine different guys to catch a ball. It's like just give me the two or three and then it'll be like DeMarcus Robinson is involved. You know, just be dumb stuff they do. But I don't know. I'm going to be on the betting side. I'm going to be staring at Juwan Jennings. I'm assuming it'll be four and a half receptions. I might be peeking around at a five or whatnot. All right, let's jump. We got two more wide receivers in this range probably. I think these are going to be two tougher options for people to deal with. And starting with Cortland Sutton, who comes in at 19 going up against the Jaguars, this defensive matchup isn't fantastic. The consistency isn't really fantastic, though. Sutton is kind of the top guy. He comes in at 19. You guys are on different ends of this. Not dramatically. Ericsson, a little bit higher. Fitz, you are lower. You've got him as a low end wide receiver too. So Fitz, why don't you kick us off with maybe any concerns about Cortland Sutton this week?

[A]

Yeah, no real concerns, Walsh. It's just that I'm trying to keep an even keel with my ranking of Cortland Sutton because he's kind of been up and down this season. Got off to a really fast start with three touchdowns in his first four games and had more than 80 receiving yards in three straight games. Then he had a seven game stretch with only one touchdown and no 100 yard games. Now he's had two touchdowns in his last three games and just had seven catches for one hundred and thirteen and a touchdown against the Packers. Sutton has also had 10 targets in each of his last two games. So I'm cautiously optimistic about the way things are trending and that he's going to have another good game against the Jaguars and that he's not usurped by Troy Franklin or one of the Broncos other receivers. But there have been lulls to his season so I just don't want to get too high on him based on recent results.

[B]

Eric, should you go to 18 a little bit higher? There is something to say like Bo Nix kind of bucked the trend last week and being able to throw for a bunch of touchdowns. If this gets into a little bit of a fire off here, Cortland Sutton is probably going to be the beneficiaries. Bo Nicks plays a little bit better. Is that kind of maybe part of the not that much higher rank? It's like one spot higher than ecr but like he's the number one option as the Broncos or specifically Bonix is kind of clicking.

[C]

Love what I've seen from Sutton after their bye week. Kind of doing what he did last year right where beginning of the season before the bye week, Courtland Sutton, where are you? And then he finishes the year as a wide receiver. One just goes on absolute tear and we're kind of seeing that play out here again. 10 plus targets in back to back weeks. How do you attack the Jaguars defense? You throw on them. They're a pass funnel defense. So Bo Nix looked fantastic last week, one of his best games as an NFL pro. I think they're going to attack this Jags defense with its weakness and that's in their secondary. Especially given that RJ Harvey, their lead running back is banged up. Do they really want to feed Jalil McLaughlin into one of the best run defenses 15 to 20 carries to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars? I don't think so. I think Bo based on how well he played last week, given Sean Payton more confidence like hey we can let it sling it a little bit here with our second year quarterback and who is his number one guy that you can always trust especially in the red zone? It's not Troy Franklin, it's not Pat Bryant, it's Cortland Sutton and we've seen that over the last couple of weeks. So I think that he is a really strong play this week, the final.

[B]

One in this range is a. What do I do with Lad McConkey? Lad McConkey in the charger with. I mean, with the Herbert situation usage. And then this is like the Justin Jefferson thing, all these negatives. But then look, it's the Dallas Cowboys. You know, you got the Dallas Cowboys secondary there. Five star rated matchup. According to Fantasy Pros, the only five star of any of the top 24 wide receivers is this. But we know some of the inefficiencies that are out there. So once again, you two are on opposite ends. Not necessarily dramatic, but Fitzy is outside of a wide receiver two. Erickson, you are in the wide receiver two range. Two spots higher than ECR on lad. So why don't you start with the positive take of Ladd against Cowboys.

[C]

Well, it is the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah. And where does Lad line up in the slot more often than not? Where does Jalen Naylor line up in the slot? And who caught two touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys last week? Mr. Jalen Naylor. So I think that's how you're playing this. It's upside. We know that lad McConkey, when he sees volume, he can put up monster performances. Still not sure if Quentin Johnson's gonna play in this game. I think it's going to go down to the wire. Whether he's available for the Chargers this week, I think that matters. It takes one piece out of this offense. And if there's a situation where the Chargers are trailing in this game, which is always very possible anytime you're facing the Dallas Cowboys, this game has the highest total on the slate. So I get the Chargers defense despite really, really well, I think facing Dallas's offense, that's one of the toughest offenses they've drawn this season. So I think this game could be a shootout. And when you ask me, lab and conquer, Jalen waddle. Like, who has more upside this week, I think it's Lad. Even though the floor seems like it's much shakier, though he's not the clear cut number one because they like to spread the ball out. I think Ladd has a much better chance of hitting a 30 point type of game. Given the matchup and given how the talent of the player, it's a really.

[B]

Interesting way to look at it. Fitzy, you're lower, you've got McConkey at 25. So that's the top start of the wide receiver threes. Obviously, talk about the concerns you've got with Ladd, but also, what do you think about that Lad versus Waddle combo.

[C]

I will.

[A]

As of now, I'm I would go with Waddle. It. It's, it's maybe close though. Like I'm. I have to think about it and I think Erickson talked me into dropping Waddle farther in the rankings than I had him. He's probably going to be outside the top 20 shortly after we finish this podcast, but so the idea of a 30 point game for lad McConkey does seem a little bit pie in the sky right now considering that over his last four games he's not scored 30 Fant points in PPR. He's got 10 catches for 84 yards and one touchdown over his last four games on 18 targets. That's four and a half targets a game, two and a half catches a game, 21 yards per game. He's wide receiver 70 in PPR scoring over that stretch. And yet we know this isn't lad McConkey's fault. Like the Chargers offensive line is being held together with duct tape right now. Justin Herbert has thrown for 220 or fewer yards in five straight games. There's just not a lot of time for him to throw these days and the Chargers are becoming run heavier as a result. But we know how good a player Lad is and he has a matchup against the Dallas defense that's given up more fantasy points to wide receivers this year than any other. So I, I know there are a lot of people facing really tough start sit decisions on Ladd McConkey and based on our rankings, a lot of the start sit decisions we're going to be asked in the coming days involving lad McConkey will result in in us telling people that we would start Ladd. You know, lad McConkey or Jaden Reed. Someone asked me that the other day I'd start Ladd. And we're going to talk about Jaden Reed in a minute. Lad McConkey or Jacoby Myers against the Broncos, I'd still start Ladd. Ladd McConkey or Chris Godwin? I'd start Ladd.

[C]

So.

[A]

But look, the lad McConkey stakeholders who are still alive are going to have to do their own calculations with this and decide how they feel about an undeniably terrific receiver who's been in a month long slump due to reasons mostly beyond his control.

[B]

Yeah, and how many LAD owners are still in it? That's a very good question. Wide receiver three is coming up here in just a second, but today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet Are you out of your fantasy playoffs but still want to get in on the Week 16 action? Head over to Hard Rock Bet. They even just launched a brand new quote for you page, making it easy to bet on your favorite teams, players and leagues in just a few simple tabs. Love that. Open the app, go to the for you page, find a bet you like, and then bam. Your bet is placed just in time to get back to wrapping presents and enjoying your favorite Christmas movie like Die Hard. Sign up today and bet $5 on any game. If it wins, you also score 150 in bonus bets, a winning bet plus an extra 150 to bet with that's spreading some holiday cheer. Plus, Hard Rock bet fills your stockings with new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open up the app, check out what they've got going on any day of the week. Download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today.

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Tennessee, Virginia Wide receiver threes gentlemen. Coming in at 25, we've got Wandell Robinson, followed by the aforementioned Jaden Reed, Chris Godwin, Brian Thomas, Michael Pittman Jr. Ameca Egbuca at 30, followed by Stefon Diggs, Debo Samuel, D.J. moore, Jordan Addison, Adnai Mitchell and Luther Burden. Jaden Reed, wide receiver 26. You guys are more dramatically this is probably I keep saying the like you guys are on opposite ends. There's real opposite ends here. Wide receiver 26. Fitz, he's at 31. Erickson, you're at 23. So the difference between a low end wide receiver three and a wide receiver two. Erickson, why don't you kick it off with your positive take on Jaden Reed.

[C]

Christian Watson may not play in this game. It's another weapon that the packers are losing and that's thrusting Jaden Reed and I think to a potential bigger role. Not necessarily in terms of snaps and playing time, but in terms of targets, right? Matthew golden still is he in the trust tree for Jordan Love still kind of to be determined. Romeo Dobbs, you've seen his production really tail off since Christian Watson has returned to the lineup. Now maybe those guys are really the way you want to attack the Bears, but the Bears have been the worst defense in the NFL this year against slot wide receivers and we saw this matchup play out two weeks ago when Jaden Reed played the Chicago Bears in his first game back after missing so much time and he was immediately involved from the get go like saw targets and carries on the opening drive. Now he's been a floor play over the last couple games, but this is how you find ceiling, right? Not to make it a complete comparison, but Kyle Pitts right, he's putting up a bunch of high floor games, Drake London is out, a matchup looks positive and then he just blows up in a massive spot. We've seen Jaden Reed have blow up games before in the past. So if there are packers are down multiple wide receivers we've seen him already see establish a decent sized floor and you have a divine matchup against the Bears who have been the worst defense against slot receivers. Kyler Gordon placed on injured reserve, he's their slot cornerback. He hasn't really played most of the season. That's why they've been so bad at stopping slot wide receivers. So we've already seen Jordan Love carve up this Bears defense not that long ago. I think Reed could have a big game here, so that's why I have him above consensus here.

[B]

Wide Receiver 23 all right, Fitzy Ladd over Jaden Reed. You've got some pessimism at least in your rank at 31. What's your take? Low end wide receiver three on Jaden Reed here.

[A]

I think we do like the matchup Jaden Reed against the Kyler Gordon less Chicago Bears defense who do get burned by slot receivers. So yeah, that's good. But the reason I want to tap the brakes. Jaden reed has played 40 career games if you include the playoffs and he has seen more than six targets in only seven of those 40 games and it's only happened once since his rookie year in 2023. And by the way, Christian Watson has been hurt for a bunch of those games where he was getting six or fewer targets. Reed just typically does not play in two receiver sets for the Packers. He is usually only on the field in three receiver or four receiver sets, which means the snap counts are snap shares typically around 60%. Right around 60%. And even if Christian Watson is out this week and there's a chance he could play, Reed is is still unlikely to be on the field in two receiver sets, it's going to be Romeo Dobbs with either Matthew golden or Don Tavian Wicks. So while I do like the matchup, I just, I worry a little bit that the usage might not be what we're hoping for. I don't think people should count on double digit targets when Jaden Reed has had exactly one game in his career with double digit targets.

[B]

All right, DJ Moore. We were surprised by DJ Moore. Doing anything is kind of a surprise, but we obviously had a Dunes egg out and DJ Moore was able to thrive a little bit more. Doesn't really do a lot for his rank here. Obviously. I think the status of a Dunes a maybe changes a tiny bit. You also got burden that's a little bit banged up and ranked lower in ECR here. ECR. 33. Fitz, you got him at 35. Ericsson, you got him at 30. So you have him as the same type of wide receiver. You're just on opposite ends of ECR. Fitzy, why don't you talk to us? 35 is barely scraping in. Fluky 2 touchdown game. Nothing to really read of. Even if Odunsay is out for DJ Moore, you think there might be a little bit more?

[A]

I don't know. I. Man, I'm. I'm the Grinch on all these rankings debates this week.

[B]

I've got a mean one.

[A]

I should have worn my Grinch T shirt. Yeah, I mean, we've been getting some signs of life from DJ Moore, which is great. Like one touchdown in his first 10 games. And now DJ Moore's had a pair of two touchdown games over the last four weeks, so that's a plus. But still hasn't had more than five catches or 73 receiving yards in a game all season. And he's only averaging 3.1 catches and 40.5 yards a game. And the Bears have been really run heavy over the last two months because they're running the heck out of the ball. They've been great at it lately. So I would expect them to continue to be run heavy against the packers this week as they were a couple weeks ago when they played Green Bay. So it's just really hard for me to confidently start DJ More based on what we've seen this season.

[B]

You're a mean one, Mr. Fitz. Andrew Lou who. What do you think about DJ Moore here? You wrapping him up for Christmas?

[C]

I guess I am more optimistic just based on the fact that I don't think a Dunesday is gonna. I don't think Odin's day is gonna come Back back until like the playoffs. So I think that he's out and I mean Luther Burden didn't practice on Tuesday again the Bears play on Saturday so it's one less day they have to get all their guys back. Also Cole Comet is also kind of banged up too. So look, DJ Moore is not one of these I think from a real life skill talent. It's not like oh this jabroni wide receiver now he's in the wide receiver one chair. This guy's going to do absolutely nothing Like DJ Moore, like has been a really good NFL player for most of his career. I know this year has been down obviously last year disappointment as well but. But I don't think that he's just some slouch of an NFL player. I think that he has a lot of talent. Just really hasn't been the focal point of this offense. But given the injuries, I mean last week five targets, four for 69 because those guys didn't play and Burden got hurt in that game so they had to turn to DJ Moore and although he was terrible in the previous matchup against the packers he had one catch for negative four yards on three targets. This is from the Coach Speak index Discord shout out to Greg. He talked about or Ben Johnson talked about in that discord how they actually had a lot of plays designed for DJ Moore heading into that game against the packers and they just didn't come to fruition. So Ben Johnson might be pulling out some of those plays that he had in the bag already that he didn't get to use in the previous matchup that he may have to use now based on some of those injuries. So that's why I'm a little bit more optimistic it'll change if Burden ends up playing because he has been the target leader over the last two games. But Burden is out and it's just like DJ Moore and Colston Loveland that are like the main two guys. I think more can be a wide receivers where he final one we're going.

[B]

To talk about here at wide receiver 35 Adonai Mitchell AD has been kind of dicey but he's played a version of a wide receiver one quarterback play. Yeah. I mean what are we going to get Cook and and Chuck in this matchup? What a week 16 game we're going to get. But it comes in at 35 on this list. It's not a horrifically bad matchup and there might be some wide receiver hungry teams out there that it might have been scouring waiver w buyers are looking and saying, is this the time that I could potentially put him in a lineup? Per usual, you guys are on some opposite ends. Erickson, it looks as if your rank says you do think he is startable.

[C]

At 31 seeing volume six plus targets in five straight games with three different quarterbacks. So. And look, AD Mitchell's good. Like he is a good wide receiver. It's just a matter of does he squeeze the football right? Because he deals with drops at some times. But he's so talented and when you combine he's seeing opportunities talented wide receiver two top 20 finishes over the last three weeks. 26 target share in his last five games. I think that he's clearly established himself as the wide receiver one in the jets offense ahead of John Mechi. So I think Mitchell, he has upside. I don't think that Cook was so terrible last week where okay, he showed in one game, hey, I can facilitate a fantasy viable weapon. You're getting dome conditions so you're not dealing with any type of weather playing in New Orleans. And if they're losing, you're expecting negative game script. And Mitchell should see more volume. So I think that he is a decent wide receiver three play. So that's why I haven't met where I am.

[B]

But see you do not you've got him at 41. I think we could pretty easily look at the quarterback and be like yuck. We could also look at his hands and be like yuck. What is your level of yuck for Adnai Mitchell? Not as a wide receiver three for.

[A]

You this week I'm just worried about playing receivers tied to Brady Cook. And I know it worked out last week with six catches for 58 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, but that was still only 6.4 yards per target for Adnai Mitchell. And I just worry about what his stat line could look like if AD Mitchell doesn't score a touchdown and if his catch rate is 50% or worse instead of 67% which it was last week and for the season 80. Mitchell's catch rate is 45%. So there's definitely downside here that concerns me.

[B]

All right, you guys got more questions? We got you covered. If we didn't hit the specific wide receiver you need an answer for in the playoffs with the live streams Thursday, 3pm Eastern. We got you covered. Start and sit questions, whatever you have. And I think because we're not doing one next week because of Christmas, so you want to get it in here real quick for even any of your rest of season stuff. So make sure YouTube.com fantasy pro subscribe get notified. Don't miss that if we didn't hit it, but hopefully we did, that is going to do it. My friends for the week 16 wide receivers. Good luck and we will talk to you next time. For Fitzy and Erickson. I'm Welsh. Have a good one. Peace.

[D]

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple [e-mail] review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.

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