FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: Week 16 Lineup Advice: Starts, Sits, Player Debates, and TD Calls (Ep. 1907)
Date: December 18, 2025
Host: Seth Wilcock
Guests: Jake Seeley (The Athletic), Pat Fitz Morris (FantasyPros)

Episode Overview

This episode is all about helping fantasy football managers navigate the high-pressure decisions in Week 16—whether you’re clawing for a championship berth or making a last push in the semis. The hosts break down start/sit calls, analyze popular waiver-wire pickups, tackle tough player debates, and deliver their classic “flag plant” picks. Packed with banter, expert insights, and memorable moments, this episode is your definitive guide to the fantasy football semifinals.

Key Discussion Segments and Insights

1. Waiver Wire RB Starts/Sits

Segment Start: 05:12

• Michael Carter (Cardinals, now RB1 post-injuries)

  • Jake Seeley (05:12): "I have him at 26. Not actively trying to slam him into my lineup, but you might need him. Not as scary a matchup as the Falcons were earlier in the year. Still, he might split more with DiMercado—maybe a 60:40 or 50:50 split."
  • Pat Fitz Morris (06:37): "Cardinals backfield is tough to read, but after Bam Knight went down last week it was 53 vs 7 snaps Michael Carter over DiMercado. I have Carter at RB19 as of now—aggressive, but based on volume."

• Audric Estime (Saints waiver add, vs. Jets)

  • Pat (09:06): "He split work evenly with Evan Hull after Neal left last week, which was surprising. Estimate caught passes but isn’t a major pass-catcher by college profile. Jets are a great matchup, but I have him at RB34—just a flex."
  • Jake (10:29): "Never loved Estime due to college O-line. I don’t want to chase this backfield, even though it’s a good matchup. RB46 for Estime, Evan Hull at 53. I’d use him only in desperation in deep leagues."

• Jawar Jordan (Texans, vs. Raiders if Woody Marks is out)

  • Jake (12:38): "If Marks and Chubb are out, Jordan slots in where I’d have Devin Neal, around RB20. The volume and a better Texans offensive line bode well."
  • Pat (14:01): "If those two are out, I’d have Jordan RB24, between Aaron Jones and Ashton Gentry. He could see close to 20 touches."

2. Tight End Matchup — Darren Waller

Segment Start: 15:03

• Darren Waller (vs. Bengals, new QB Quinn Ewers)
  • Pat (15:51): "Not super high on him. He’s touchdown dependent and now relies on rookie QB Ewers. Waller’s been more of a WR anyway in the Dolphins’ offense, so he may not benefit as much from Bengals’ weakness vs. TEs."
  • Jake (16:59): "Comped Ewers to a lesser-armed Sam Darnold. If he’s just Tua (who hasn’t played well lately), maybe he supports the offense, but there’s no guarantee he keys in on Waller. Still, Waller’s top-10 TE for me, chasing ceiling over Goddard and Fannin."

3. Flag Plant Players

Segment Start: 23:21

• Pat’s Flag Plant: Jacoby Brissette, QB (Cardinals vs. Falcons)

  • Pat (23:29): "QB4 in fantasy points per game as starter for the Cardinals, averaging 300+ yards and 2 TDs per game. I have him QB8."
  • Jake (24:22): "I have him QB5—love him more than Dak, Goff, or Stafford."
  • Memorable quote from Jake (24:42): "You were like Mario jumping onto the flag and Luigi just came from behind and got it."

• Jake’s Flag Plant: Justin Jefferson, WR (Vikings vs. Giants)

  • Jake (25:17): "It’s starting to happen. Best matchup you can ask for against the Giants’ secondary. Finally pushing him to WR20 territory after weeks in the WR28-30 range. Breakout game coming."
  • Pat (27:19): "He should’ve had a TD last week—went right through his hands. I’m still trepidatious, but have him WR21. I’d start him over guys like Jaden Reed/Khalil Shakir."

4. Start/Sit Debates

Running Backs

• Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs. Ashton Gentry (Raiders)

  • Jake (30:38): "Jones in front due to Giants’ awful run D. Gentry only rises if Geno Smith plays QB for the Raiders."
  • Pat (32:41): "Rather a timeshare RB in a great matchup than a workhorse on a broken offense."

• Tony Pollard (Titans) vs. Kenneth Gainwell (Steelers)

  • Pat (33:48): “I have Pollard ranked two spots higher. Titans’ run game working lately and Pollard has incentives in his contract. Gainwell’s production is all through passing, which is less bankable overall."
  • Jake (36:45): “Bonuses seem to be motivating Pollard—$250k for 1,100 rushing yards, $200k for 7 rushing TDs. Tajh Spears hasn’t impressed. Slight lean Pollard for me too.”

Wide Receivers

• Ladd McConkey (Chargers) vs. Emeka Egbuka (Bucs)

  • Pat (39:07): "Despite production issues, matchup for Ladd is better. He’s WR70 last month, but Egbuka has faded since Evans/Godwin returned."
  • Jake (40:00): "I give Egbuka the edge. With everyone healthy, he returns to a WR2 profile. McConkey is hampered by Herbert’s struggles."

• Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) vs. DJ Moore (Bears)

  • Pat (42:21): "DJM one spot higher, but if Luther Burden is out for the Bears, the gap widens. Pittman’s production unreliable right now."
  • Jake (42:48): "Six-spot gap as is, and would grow with no Burden. Even with Pittman as Tyler Warren’s main target, he did little last week."

Flex Debates (Rapid-Fire)

• Omarrion Hampton (Cowboys) vs. Rico Dowdle (Bucs)

  • Jake (45:24): "Dowdle one spot higher unless DT Quinnen Williams is out—if so, Hampton leapfrogs."
  • Pat (45:46): "Prefer Hampton if Williams out; heavy touch share bodes well. Dowdle's efficiency has dropped."

• Terry McLaurin (Eagles) vs. Jalen Waddle (Bengals)

  • Pat (46:53): "Lean McLaurin even in tough matchup—Waddle likely faces shadow CB DJ Turner."
  • Jake (47:12): "Give Waddle a slight edge. Think Ewers can keep offense afloat, and Waddle could thrive over the middle."

• Brian Thomas Jr. (Denver) vs. D’Andre Swift (Packers)

  • Both prefer Swift due to Bears’ run-blocking and volume—BTJ is more volatile, tougher matchup.

• Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Quinshon Judkins (Browns)

  • Pat (50:59): "Zay’s floor is actually sturdy; Judkins not trustworthy, OL beat up, not scoring."
  • Jake (49:59): "Leaning Judkins but immediately flips to Flowers after Pat’s argument—a running joke about always being wrong on Zay’s rank."

• Breece Hall (Saints) vs. Jacoby Myers (Jags at Denver)

  • Pat (52:09): "Invokes “Bob Harris law”—when in doubt, RB over WR in flex. Slight edge to Hall."
  • Jake (52:39): "If Tyrod Taylor starts, prefer Hall. Otherwise, slight lean Myers."

• Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs. Tyrone Tracy (Vikings)

  • Both prefer Tracy due to usage post-bye, matchup, and Vikings being such a run funnel.

Quarterback & Tight End Streamers

• Brock Purdy (Colts) vs. Jared Goff (Steelers)

  • Pat (56:51): "Purdy QB5, Goff QB6, but would flip if Sauce Gardner plays for Colts."
  • Jake (57:18): "Goff at home vs. PIT, more trust in pass-heavy Lions, Purdy’s volume might be limited."

• Dalton Schultz (Texans) vs. Colston Loveland (Packers)

  • Jake (58:31): "If Burden is out, Loveland jumps to TE10 with more ceiling."
  • Pat (59:22): "Schultz quietly up to 70 catches/all but two games over eight targets; Loveland’s ceiling rises if Burden ruled out."

Notable Quotes & Fun Moments

• Jake (24:42, on flag plants): “You were like Mario jumping onto the flag and Luigi just came from behind and got it. There I cleared.”
• Pat (27:19, on Jefferson’s missed TD): “He should have that touchdown. It went right through his hands… I just don’t know if Jefferson himself is right; maybe it’s season-long frustration.”
• Jake (32:11, Peyton Manning trivia): “Worst yards per attempt in 25 years? Peyton Manning, final season, 1.8 YPA. Cooper Rush, Chris Weinke—those are your neighbors!”
• Seth (35:08, on Tony Pollard bonuses): “This is like your friend who flunks the semester and suddenly tries to ace the final. That’s Tony Pollard right now.”

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic/Segment | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 05:12 | Waiver Wire RBs: Michael Carter, Audric Estime, Jordan | | 15:03 | Darren Waller, TE discussion | | 23:21 | Flag Plant Players: Brissette, Jefferson | | 30:38 | RB Debate: Jones vs. Genty | | 33:48 | RB Debate: Pollard vs. Gainwell | | 39:07 | WR Debate: McConkey vs. Egbuka | | 42:21 | WR Debate: Pittman vs. DJ Moore | | 45:24 | Flex Rapid-Fire (Hampton/Dowdle, McLaurin/Waddle, etc.)| | 56:51 | QB Debate: Purdy vs. Goff | | 58:31 | TE Debate: Schultz vs. Loveland | | 60:32 | Touchdown Calls of the Week |

TD Calls of the Week

Segment Start: 60:32

• Pat Fitz Morris: Bucky Irving (RB, "He'll have to score from outside the 10")
• Seth Wilcock: Olamide Zaccheaus (WR, Bears; slot role, +360 odds)
• Jake Seeley: Travis Kelce (TE, Chiefs; “Classic Kelsey game with Minshew slinging passes.”)

Overall Tone and Style

The episode is filled with sharp expert debate, playful holiday-season banter, and real-world fantasy advice that doesn’t sugarcoat the volatility of the 2025 fantasy playoffs. Both Jake and Pat bring deep statistical reasoning mixed with gut feeling, and Seth keeps the pace moving and the mood light, pulling no punches on tough call-outs and groan-worthy metaphors.

Conclusion

This episode is a fantasy manager’s toolkit for Week 16—with clear, actionable answers on tricky start/sit situations, in-depth breakdowns of ascending waiver-wire options, and “plant your flag” calls for your most desperate lineup decisions. Whether you’re sweating over Michael Carter’s touch share or chasing a Justin Jefferson boom game, you’ll find timely, practical advice—delivered with the straight talk and humor that make FantasyPros a trusted playoff companion.

Listen to the full episode for more holiday chaos, insider anecdotes, and the always entertaining Week 16 ride!