FantasyPros – Fantasy Football Podcast Episode: Week 6 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1758) Date: October 7, 2025 Hosts: Ryan Wormley & Andrew Erickson

Episode Overview

This episode digs into running back trade strategy for week 6, covering buy-low and sell-high RB targets to help listeners win their leagues. Ryan and Andrew react to Monday Night Football, discuss macro-level trade tips as bye weeks intensify, and break down the underlying analytics propelling their stances on specific RBs. The advice is actionable, statistical, and leverages recent league trends and player usage.

Monday Night Football Recap & Fantasy Takeaways

(00:35–05:08)

• Game Recap:

  • Jaguars upset Chiefs in a wild 31-28 finish.
  • Trevor Lawrence delivers a game-winning drive with two rushing touchdowns and a passing TD.
  • Notable fantasy performances: Brian Thomas Jr. (80 yds), Kareem Hunt (2 TDs), Mahomes (300+ yds, pass & rush TD), Tyquan Thornton (90 yds), Travis Kelce (7 rec, 61 yds, TD), Travis Hunter (3 rec, 64 yds; bit banged up).

• Key RB Notes:

  • Travis Etienne remains a potential sell-high due to tougher upcoming matchups and O-line injuries. (02:16)
  • Rashad Smith: Projected increase in role didn't materialize—played only 9 snaps, 3 catches, red zone touch, but fewer touches than prior week.
  • Kareem Hunt: "Whenever you play Kareem Hunt in your starting lineup, it is spray and pray."
    • —Andrew Erickson, 03:09
  • Isaiah Pacheco: "He looks okay, but his usage is just terrible. It's a three-way committee. He doesn't get the high leverage opportunities..."
    • —Andrew Erickson, 03:33

Chiefs Backfield Breakdown

(05:08–07:02)

• Pacheco (RB41 consensus), Smith (RB50), and Hunt (RB54) all locked in a committee.
  • Ryan: "If I had to start one of them right now, it's definitely Kareem Hunt." (05:08)
• Erickson: Hesitates to rank Hunt higher rest of season – believes Pacheco "is the best running back", but notes "Kareem Hunt's always going to kind of be a thorn [in] Pacheco's side." (05:59–06:55)

Macro-Level Trade Strategy: Week 6 and Beyond

(07:02–13:00)

• Efficiency & Talent Over Situation:

  • Buy good players with strong efficiency/underlying metrics, even in muddy or uncertain situations.
  • "If you look at how players were doing not necessarily in terms of fantasy points scored, but how they were in some of the efficiency marks... players that played really well in the first four to five weeks end up, you know, continuing to play well..." (08:02)
  • Avoid older RBs who start hot but tail off.
  • Example: Jakory Croskey-Merritt, an efficiency maven who boomed when volume arrived (09:04).

• Bye Weeks & Trade Negotiations:

  • Acquiring players who've had their bye = extra week of usability; valuable when filling depth.
  • But consider team context: "If you're a losing team, you can't take on guys that are going to be taking zeros for you." (11:42–12:59)
  • How byes factor into trade negotiations and mutual benefit.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets

Breece Hall (NYJ)

(14:01–17:52)

• Hall played 62% snaps without Braylon Allen; dominated touches (18–4 over Davis).

• Now has goal-line role: "Isaiah Davis isn't taking over that Braylon Allen role. It's now Breece Hall has goal line opportunities..." (14:38)

• Jets schedule: Panthers, Bengals up next—prime opportunities.

• Stat: Top 7 in NFL rushing despite two sub-30 yd games; only RB in top 20 with 0 rushing TDs ("the touchdowns will come..."). (15:52)

  "Tank’s been really efficient this year... a couple good matchups coming up. If you lost O'Marian Hampton, Breece Hall might be a guy to go after."
  —Andrew Erickson (16:45)

Derrick Henry (BAL)

(17:52–23:37)

• Target as a buy after week 6 and the Ravens' week 7 bye. Only for teams with strong records (not for "1–5 managers").
• Anticipate Lamar Jackson's return post-bye: "After the bye week, you're assuming that Lamar Jackson will come back... and you'll see the Ravens offense get back up to potential of high-scoring." (18:01)
• Post-bye schedule: Bears & Dolphins defenses ripe for Henry.
• Concern: Offensive line struggles, poor team defense may hinder consistent work.
• Ryan: Worries defense will keep Ravens playing catch-up, limiting Henry’s touches. Also cautious about Lamar’s hamstring.
• Erickson: "Lamar is the tide that lifts all boats." (20:18)

Sell-High Running Back Candidates

Alvin Kamara (NO)

(26:36–33:32)

• Underwhelmed against Giants (one of few soft matchups)—concern for ceiling.
• "Usage as a receiver has been really spotty... Kendrick Miller is getting more involved... Miller had more carries than Kamara in this past matchup." (27:37)
• Efficiency gap: Kamara is PFF’s 14th-lowest graded RB; Miller is 4th-highest for Saints.
• Taysom Hill now siphoning goal-line and short yardage work.
• "I think at this point you’re hoping he gets traded [to a contender]. Otherwise...I just don’t see a scenario where I trade away Kamara and think 'that was a mistake' if he stays on the Saints." (28:12)

David Montgomery (DET)

(33:34–35:44)

• Massive Week 5 (hometown game, extra touches, threw a TD) presents ideal window to sell.
• "Given the Cincinnati... this was just like a smash spot for David Montgomery... Had more carries than Jameer Gibbs. I think this is the time for you to sell high on Dave Montgomery who we still know is a part-time running back..." (34:46)
• Tougher matchups ahead (next: at Chiefs).

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the emotional cycle of fantasy advice:

  “That take aged like spoiled milk. Luckily, the Croskey-Merritt aged like fine wine. So we’re one and one when it comes to the running back buys and sells."
  —Andrew Erickson (09:00)

• On team context for trades:

  "So much of trades in certain players to buy and sell are very dependent on, well, what is your record..."
  —Andrew Erickson (12:25)

• On the Chiefs RB committee:

  "Please, editors, do not do that. Yeah, Pacheco's in that annoying range right now where it feels really hard to start him. But like you, I definitely don't want to drop him..."
  —Ryan Wormley (07:05)

• On Lamar Jackson’s impact:

  "He is a mistake eraser. Todd Monken calls him that actually. And, and yeah, so he could be kind of this, like you said, the rising tide that lifts all boats and, and kind of covers up all these other warts and makes Henry look good again."
  —Ryan Wormley (21:13)

Additional Buy/Sell/Hold Discussions (Trios & "Figure It Out" Section)

(37:32–43:48)

Trio 1: Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams, Breece Hall

• Buy: Breece Hall (or could argue for Javonte), RB1 for DAL, “efficiency monster.”
• Hold: Javonte Williams.
• Sell: Kyren Williams (huge receiving spike, but backup threat looms).

Trio 2: J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard

• Sell: Kamara (as above).
• Hold: Dobbins (“ride the wave”).
• Sell/low: Hubbard ("more of a 1A/1B than clear RB1").

Trio 3: Tony Pollard, DeAndre Swift, Zach Charbonnet

• Buy: Charbonnet (cheapest, one Kenneth Walker injury from RB1 status).
• Hold: Swift (already had bye, might get usage bump).
• Sell: Pollard (trending down; shared touches likely).

Actionable Listener Tips

• Monitor Injury Reports: Especially when targeting RBs who've recently left games.

  "I'm going to be very, very clear: don't make any trades until we get the Wednesday injury report..."
  —Andrew Erickson (14:21)

• Target RBs with Bellcow Usage and Soft Schedules: Breece Hall is prime after Allen's injury and with upcoming plus matchups.

• Trade Away Declining Veterans/Committee RBs: Kamara, Montgomery's recent big games create an opportunity to get out before value drops due to efficiency, age, or role concerns.

• Leverage Bye Week Status: Use it as a bargaining chip in trades or to maximize lineup utility down the road.

Memorable Moments

• Andrew’s “spray and pray” label for Kareem Hunt owners (03:09).
• Heated defense of Lamar Jackson’s value and frustration with doubters (21:13).
• Comparison of team trade negotiating with “bully ball” when you have a better record (11:42).
• Playful banter about refusing to play along with strict "buy/sell/hold" constraints (42:53–43:48).

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:35 – MNF recap/stats & fantasy takeaways
• 02:16 – Jags RB room analysis, Travis Etienne as sell-high
• 05:08 – Chiefs RB committee breakdown
• 08:02 – Macro trade strategy, efficiency data, bye week context
• 14:01 – Buy: Breece Hall
• 17:52 – Buy: Derrick Henry
• 26:36 – Sell: Alvin Kamara
• 33:34 – Sell: David Montgomery
• 37:32 – Buy/Sell/Hold trios & rapid-fire strategy

Overall Tone & Style

The show delivers sharp, evidence-driven RB takes with plenty of playful banter and quick pivots between deeper strategy and actionable, team-specific advice. Both hosts are transparent about their hits and misses, and maintain a conversational, enthusiastic energy throughout.

Useful for Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This summary breaks down all the practical advice and underlying arguments, highlighting both specific trade targets and the broader thinking to fuel your roster improvements for Week 6 and beyond. All major points, player breakdowns, and strategic framework are attributed and timestamped, so readers can easily dig deeper into topics of interest.