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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 6 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1758)
00:43:04
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- [00:00]
Ryan Wormley
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
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- [00:35]
Ryan Wormley
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson. Maybe Wednesday depending on when you end up listening to this at some point in the week. We are recording this on Tuesday morning though we are talking week six running back buys and sells. This is part one. There will be a part two dropping both on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts on audio that will be more focused on the wide receivers, quarterbacks, things like that. As a part of this episode though, we will also be reacting to Monday Night Football. We had an upset here, Erickson in Jacksonville, 31 for the Jags, 28 for the Chiefs. Very fun game, very wacky, Fun drive to end it from Trevor Lawrence. His game winning drive capped off by falling and doing the old stumble Ruski and somehow making it into the end zone. I don't know, that was, that was wild. But he made some really good throws on that. On that drive as well. Lawrence rushed for two touchdowns. He threw for another. Brian Thomas Jr. Did have 80 receiving yards, which he has not done a lot this year. Of course. Kareem Hunt rushed for a couple of touchdowns. Mahomes rushed for one. He also threw for one and threw for over 300 yards. Tyquan Thornton, 90 yards receiving. Travis Kelce, 7 catches, 61 yards and a touchdown. Those are some of the highlights. Well, I guess I'll say Travis Hunter to three catches for 64 yards. He had the big 44 yarder. Then they talked about there was going to be some prizes for him this week. I'm not really sure what those were supposed to be, but he also had a bit of a, an injury issue at one point, kind of coming off the field limping a bit. So those are, that's kind of the box score, Erickson. But what was your big fantasy takeaway from what was a very fun Monday night game?
- [02:17]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think that there were a couple different angles to look at it. I know that we've talked about on this show before about Travis ETN and how he could be a sell high candidate with tougher matchups coming up. This was one of the tougher matchups and ETN didn't rip off the massive run like he has in past weeks. He didn't score any touchdowns despite having more red zone usage. So I still think that he is in that territory because the matchups for Jacksonville for their running backs do get a little bit tougher and they also lost one of their, I believe is their starting center. He got hurt in this game. So if this banged up, if the Jaguars offensive line is banged up, that could potentially hurt the run game in the future. So that's something to kind of pay attention to when it comes to the Jaguars back the upper chart. Smith, they lied to us. He did not really have an exp. I. I mean I guess it depends on what you need by expand. I mean he didn't play more so, so that was like the number one thing I believe only played like nine offensive snaps and he actually had half the amount of touches that he did the week previously. He did have three catches on three targets and he did actually have a red zone carry. He almost actually scored on the first drive. And as someone that bet the shards with anytime touchdown, I was very, very sad that he didn't find the end zone. And of course Kareem Hunt's the guy that scores two touchdowns. As, as I alluded to on the Week 5 ranking show, whenever you play Kareem Hunt in your starting lineup, it is us spraying. Pray when it comes to Kareem Hunt, you're just, you're just hoping like the guy stumbles into the end zone and that's exactly what he did. I think Pacheco looks okay, but his usage is just terrible. It's a three way committee. He doesn't get the high leverage opportunities like Kareem Hunt does. So. So he is like a middling RB3. I don't think you can outright cut him, but I know I had questions about Rashad Smith versus Isaiah Pacheco. Like heading into this week, should I cut Pacheco for Rashad Smith? And I don't know if I feel like you can do that just because I mean Pacheco's going to see more opportunities every week than Rashard Smith and this didn't really change my mind about that. So that's kind of a tough thing to kind of parse through Travis Hunter, the usage is kind of all over the place. Playing offense, playing Defense. It doesn't seem like Jax really knows what they're doing. They're trying to find unique ways to kind of get him involved. But he is very tough to trust on a week to week basis because it changes based on the game plan. You know, who's available for defense, who's available for offense. So the Brenton Strange injury could all could open up more opportunities for Travis Hunter to have a bigger role as a receiver as maybe that security blanket for Trevor Lawrence. If Strange, I believe he has a hip injury. I don't know how long he is out for. That was another thing that you didn't mention. He did get hurt in this game. I mean he's been a guy who's caught a lot of targets and a lot of passes from Trevor Lawrence. I think the Trevor Lawrence touchdown at the end of the game was kind of just a summarization of how Trevor Lawrence played. I mean it was like bonehead play after bonehead play and then somehow like making it into a positive play. I think Brian Thomas Jr. Is also trending up. I think that this was a good game for him. Again, four for 86 targets. It's positive. Like that's what we want to see from, From Brian Thomas Jr.
- [05:08]
Ryan Wormley
Just quickly on the Chiefs backfield. I find it really interesting that if you look at the consensus rest of season rankings on fantasyprose.com which you can navigate to from fantasypros.com rankings, Isaiah Pacheco is the highest rated Chiefs running back. He's at RB41. This is in half PPR scoring. Pacheco's RB41. Brashard Smith is RB50, Kareem Hunt is RB54. I feel like given the split, but the fact that it's Hunt that is scoring all the touchdowns and getting those opportunities that Hunt should be higher. I mean, I guess as I'm talking you through, I'm not sure cause I do think Pacheco looks good and it wouldn't totally stun me if in the second half of the year like Pacheco does take back over the backfield at some point if he continues to look good. But right now it feels like if I had to start one of the three, it's definitely Kareem Hunt.
- [06:00]
Andrew Erickson
I think that there's hesitance for the rest of season rankings because we know that Greenland's not the best running back on that team. Right. So it's hard for me to as a ranker just be like, well, I'm gonna push all my chips in on Cream Hunt like, that doesn't seem like the smart move to make. Yes, his opportunities are a lot better and, and maybe this is the wrong take, but I just think that Pacheco is the best running back and we talked about this last week with Jacob Koski Merit. The usage was not in his favor, but he, he looked like the best running back on the team. And what happened? He ended up getting the usage in his favor. Again, kind of under the radar where Isaiah Pacheco played a season high in snaps last night at 62%. So although Hunt scoring all the touchdowns, like you peek under the hood, you're like, oh, like Pacheco did play a lot. And I think that he's looked pretty good the last couple weeks. It's just a matter of, hey, can they get this guy more touches, especially in the passing game in the red zone. But yeah, Kareem Hunt's always going to kind of be a thorn. Pacheco side.
- [06:55]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, to be clear, I don't want to go all in on Kareem Hunt. I don't want to start any of these three right now. I'm just saying if I had to start one of them right now.
- [07:02]
Andrew Erickson
Worm in on Kareem Hunt.
- [07:05]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, yeah. Please, editors, do not do that. Yeah, Pacheco's in that annoying range right now where it feels really hard to start him. But like you, I definitely don't want to drop him, which is a tough place to be especially this time of year when buys are happening and guys are getting injured and of need your depth. So hopefully they start giving him better usage soon because I, I agree. I, I like just watching him. I think he looks better as the season's gone on. Let's jump into our show. We always start this first part with some kind of macro level trade strategy advice from Erickson. This doesn't have to be about specific like buys and sells for players. It doesn't have to be about running backs, just kind of in general, you know, as we head into week six here, a month and a half into the season now, like into the buy weeks, like for real. And you know, last week was the start of it. You know what, what's kind of, what are you thinking about 30,000 foot view in terms of making trades? By the way, just so everybody knows here at the start of the week, the two teams on by, there's not a lot of them this week. It's just the Texans and the Vikings.
- [08:02]
Andrew Erickson
I think for me the approach this week is to buy good players. And even if the situation seem Kind of murky and a little bit unknown. If you look at, and this is something I, I took some time to do last week, I looked at 2024, the first five weeks, the first four weeks of 2024, and how players were doing, not necessarily in terms of fantasy points scored, but how they were in some of the efficiency marks, their PFF grades, their points above expectation, things like that. And I found that a lot of the players that played really well in the first four to five weeks of the season end up, you know, continuing to play well for the rest of the season. The only guys that really weren't those types of players were older players where if an older player started out the season really, really hot, he was a player that you wanted to kind of get away from because it did start to tail off as the season progressed, which I don't think is like that outlandish or weird to kind of envision happening that, yes, veteran players that are older, yes, this is when they're going to be most productive, when they're most healthy and they're at their freshest, whereas the season progresses, you don't necessarily see that from them. So this was the process. Play behind your Corey crossing merit last week. Right. The usage was not there, but he checked off every single box when it came to, well, how good is this guy? Like he's, he's smashing every single efficiency metric, number one, rushing success rate. And then finally the commanders decided, hey, we're going to turn the ball over to Jakory Koski Merritt and he was a massive hit. That being said as well, I think that you really want to try to pay attention to the injury stuff and it's something that was a big miss for me last week. Just the whole Trey Benson thing was where it seemed like he was okay, but maybe there was more rumbling. So that was a mistake that I made about giving out that. So that take aged like spoiled milk. Luckily, the Krakowski merit aged like fine wine. So we're one and one when it comes to the running back buys and sells. So hopefully at least you're able to pick up Michael Carter. This past week he was able to fill in if you did go after Trey Benson. So yeah, those are some of kind of my macro level stat stats. And when you're trying to buy players too, it's really hard to envision, okay, I'm going to buy this player and then flip them the next week. That's hard to do. It works in theory that you can flip players like stocks, but it doesn't always work that way. So whenever I'm looking to buy a player, I'm thinking in the back of my mind, I'm gonna have this guy in the rest of my. He's gonna be on my team for the rest of the season. And if I don't think that he's good, like, that's a problem and I need to stop. Versus I do believe in this player's talent. I do believe that the situation maybe can change for the better. Maybe they'll get better quarterback play, you know, down the line. Maybe they've had a bunch of really tough matchups. Those are the players I want to be looking to trade for and vice versa.
- [10:33]
Ryan Wormley
I'm sure the, you know, commenters in the audience only brought up Jacori Crosky. Merit to you and. And never brought up Trey Benson. I'm sure they were very kind to you in that way.
- [10:44]
Andrew Erickson
Do you.
- [10:45]
Ryan Wormley
Is kind of the last question that we'll jump into the running backs. Do you feel like. Would you. Because for some people, the idea of approaching players who have had their bye week is I get a guy who's basically getting an extra week over anybody else who hasn't had their bye week yet. Like they are. They are not going to miss again. But on the other hand, I wonder if these early buys, you're setting yourself up for a position where you get to the fantasy playoffs with these players and they haven't had a week off in, you know, two months at this point because it was such an early bye week and maybe they're more likely to get banged up. They don't get that kind of reset, refresh bye week, which is, you know, it helps you recharge.
- [11:29]
Andrew Erickson
So do you.
- [11:29]
Ryan Wormley
Is that in the back of your mind at all if you were trading for any players who, like, already just had their bye week this last week so early, or are you just more saying, like, listen, they've. They've got it out of the way. That's too much of an advantage. I want to go after those guys anyway.
- [11:42]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I think it, for me, it's just looking at the extra week of production and the less that you have to fill because, oh, well, this guy, right, is bye week. I can start him rest of the way. So that's the way I'm thinking about it. And I think that that's also really captured in the value of these players when you're making trades. I think that part of the trade negotiation is, oh, well, so and so already had their bye week. So I need this Much more in the deal or you need to lower your asking price because this player hasn't had their buy week yet. So I think it just goes part of the trade negotiating and I think it does depend on where you're at on your team, what's your record? So much of trades in certain players to buy and sell are very dependent on, well, what is your record if you're a losing team? You can't take on guys that are going to be taking zeros for you that are on bye weeks this week. Whereas if you're a team with a very strong record, you can play a little bit more bully ball where you can kind of dictate trades a little bit more in your favor. And no, I'll take, you know, this player on a bye week with a bad matchup in week six or bad or a bye week in week seven, I can take on a player that might score zero points this week and then miss next week because of a bye week because I'm five and one or I'm six and, oh, whatever my record is. So I think that's another thing to also look at when you're making some of these deals.
- [12:59]
Ryan Wormley
We're launching. I don't. I don't know if it's actually launched yet, but if not, it's coming soon. A new feature at Fantasy is called Trade Persuade, where not that we're trying to trick people into making terrible trades, but where, you know, sometimes when you're trying to negotiate a trade, stuff like that isn't noticed by both parties or you forget to bring it up, and it's kind of a way to help make the case of like, hey, this is like very. It's kind of like a cliche, right? Like, well, this trade helps you more than it helps me or whatever, like in trying to swindle somebody. Trade Persuade, what kind of actually show, like, here is the breakdown of why this actually genuinely is mutually beneficial for everyone and, and stuff like, you know, a bi week's already happened can go into that. And negotiating is a skill. And I don't say negotiating as a way of like getting one up on somebody else. It's just negotiating in terms of helping both parties see that there's mutual value here. So hopefully that feature helps with that and things like, you know, bye weeks. It can get, you know, taken into consideration there. Let's jump into the running backs to buy here. Erickson, who's number one for you?
- [14:01]
Andrew Erickson
I'm gonna go with Breeze hall, running back for the New York Jets. We saw Breeze hall play his first game in totality without Braylon Allen in the lineup. He played 62 of the snapshot. Isaiah Davis Filton has the RB2 played 40% of the snaps. Now hall did get banged up a little bit in this game against Dallas. He also lost a fumble at the end of the first half, but he started in the second half. So I'm always going to be coming whenever there's a guy that potentially has an injury. I'm going to be very, very clear like don't make any trades until we get the Wednesday injury report because I refuse to retray Benson again. So just keep that in mind. He's my back in the game so I'm assuming that he is fine. But just keep an eye on the Wednesday injury report as we get more information. That being said, the touches were still heavily in favor of Breece Hall. He out touched Davis 18 to 4 and I think a key point of his usage was he did see the lone goal line carry from the three yard line. Again, hall hasn't scored yet this season, but usually those carries go to Braylon Allen. That was not the case. So Isaiah Davis isn't taking over that Braylon Allen role. It's now Breeze hall has goal line opportunities now. How great is that when you're an 05 jets team? Not that great but still we'll take it because it is, it is increasing at least the floor with Breeze hall that he's not being taken out of the backfield when the jets get in close to score. So again, Bell cow usage over 100 plus yards from scrimmage. He's been really efficient this year. I think he Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, when they've had their moments on offense, they've been the reason why the jets have been able to move the ball effectively at times against some of these weaker defenses. And I really want to point out the schedule here with the jets. This week it's London with the Broncos not great. But after that it's the Panthers and Bengals which are just two monster matchups for Breece Hall. So I think that he is a good buy low running back right now. People are obviously down in the jets, rightfully so. They're 05 but a couple good matchups coming up. If you lost o' Marian, Hampton, Breeze hall might be a guy to go after.
- [15:53]
Ryan Wormley
If you look at the rushing leaders in the NFL, Breeze hall, despite having two games with under 30 yards, you know, in weeks two and three, despite those dragging him down through the first five weeks, he is seventh in the NFL in rushing yards and in the top 20 of that leaderboard, he is the only player without a rushing touchdown. So that would, you know, suggest. I mean you, you probably could have guessed it anyway, right. But that would, you know, help suggest that he is likely to start getting more of those opportunities. Like we know Braylon Allen is out for a long time and that they want those to go to Hall. I, I don't know how good the jets offense is going to be over the course of the season and providing those opportunities in general, but obviously he's going to get more than zero barring some kind of catastrophe. And the rushing production's been there. That also doesn't include the receiving yards. That's strictly rushing yards. The receiving, you know, he's had at least 30 yards in four out of five games and he has multiple catches in every game and particularly the last three games alone. He has 13 total receptions and over a hundred receiving yards across the last three games. So the, the yard yardage production feels very clear is going to be there, you know, moving forward. And if the touchdowns go up, he's going to be really valuable. Relative to like right now he's already 13. If the touchdowns start coming with the yardage he's giving you, that is going to end up being too low.
- [17:18]
Andrew Erickson
So the touchdowns, it maybe is still a stretch to assume that they will start to come because he obviously plays on a bad team.
- [17:25]
Ryan Wormley
Well, well, they're going to come more than zero. Right? Like it's, it, it's. It might a league leading rushing touchdown. He's not gonna be like the new Jonathan Taylor who has six already. But I mean it's gonna be more than zero.
- [17:36]
Andrew Erickson
You would think strongly he'll probably score against the Panthers or Bengals. That'll probably happen.
- [17:42]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I would think so. All right, so he's RB13. Like I said, that's in half PPR scoring. Your other running back to buy is actually ranked even higher. He's up at RB11.
- [17:52]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, we're buying the expensive running backs this time around. Not going after the cheap guys like last week. Derrick Henry, you know Derek Henry, right? Worm running back for the Baltimore.
- [18:01]
Ryan Wormley
I've heard of him.
- [18:02]
Andrew Erickson
Now this is a trade that you don't make if you need Derek Henry right now. This would not be a trade as a one in five manager. Oh, and six. Hey, should I trade for Derrick Henry? That's probably not the case because I'm not expecting Lamar Jackson to play in this matchup in Week 6 against the Los Angeles Rams. That's not a great matchup anyway for running back. So then the Ravens gone by in Week seven. That's when you're making this trade. Because after the bye week, you're assuming that Lamar Jackson will come back to the starting lineup. You'll see the Ravens offense get back up to potential of high scoring. I don't know where the defense is going to be. It's probably not going to be fixed anytime soon, but that's okay. If their defense is bad giving up points, then you're going to see this Ravens office had to score a lot of points. So I like going after Derek Henry as a buy low. With the vibes around the Ravens so bad, everyone's injured. No one's ever coming back, which isn't necessarily the exact case. And when you look at who they play after their bye week, it's the Bears and the Miami Dolphins, just two absolute smash spots for a guy like Derrick Henry. So the Ravens could be faced at what after if they lose against the Rams this week, they'll be one in five, right, Worm?
- [19:06]
Ryan Wormley
Yes.
- [19:07]
Andrew Erickson
So they're going to need to start to get some wins to get back into the AFC north discussion. That's going to come after the bye week when they have some easier matchups, especially for Derrick Henry. So if you have a strong record, I think going after Derrick Henry on the cheap is a way to approach it.
- [19:22]
Ryan Wormley
So the thing with Henry that I struggle with is I wonder. Yes, when Lamar comes back, the offense will clearly be much better. I wonder if the defense, if it's really not fixable given the injuries and if that's the case, if that will still prevent Derrick Henry from having these big games because they're going to be in shootouts. Because even if the offense is playing really well, like the if the defense is the worst in football, like they're still going to be behind in games even with Lamar back. And I wonder if like, I wonder if Lamar isn't this like band aid for Derek Henry's production in the way that fixing the defense would be. And fixing the defense is obviously much less likely than, you know, Lamar coming back as good as he was.
- [20:12]
Andrew Erickson
I think those are good points to bring up. I just think that Lamar is the. What is it the tide that lifts all boats.
- [20:19]
Ryan Wormley
And he is for sure that.
- [20:21]
Andrew Erickson
So that's the way I that's the way I see it. And if anything, how do you protect your Again, I think to play devil's advocate. Well, what if the Ravens decide, well, we need to feed Derek Henry 25 carries to keep our defense off the field. Right. Like, how do we, how do we protect our defense? We run the ball. We don't necessarily need to score these super explosive plays. Although you could. Again, making the other argument is Derrick Henry. He's most productive by when he rips off like those ADR touchdowns. Like when he's ripping off explosive versus like grinding out yardage. That's usually not where he has.
- [20:49]
Ryan Wormley
He's had multiple games this season under two and a half yards per carry. I mean, the efficiency. His season is really boosted by how much he dominated Buffalo in week one. And he has really not looked himself since then. And Lamar played for two and three quarters of those four games and Derrick Henry felt like he wasn't looking like himself and was getting stuffed at the line a lot. Like the offensive line is not good. I, I don't know. I, I was getting so angry not at the Ravens losing this weekend because obviously like you expect it with what that injury report looked like. I was telling everybody about the mortgage on, on Houston, but I was getting so angry at people who were like talking about like they were almost surprised that at how much the Ravens were bat. And I was like, I haven't fighting for Lamar Jackson in these like debates for years. Like, he covers up so much more than he gets credit for. Everybody looks like, oh, like, look at bowlers. They have like, like, like, like the MVP debate last year. I talked about this on Friday too. So I don't, I don't. We don't need to dive into it again. But I'm like, like Lamar covers up way more than he is boosted by his teammates and scheme and all that. Like, he is very, very special as a quarterback and he, he just, he erases mistakes, mistakes from receivers, mistakes from offensive lineman, mistakes from the defense. He is a mistake eraser. Todd Monkin calls him that actually. And, and yeah, so he could be kind of this, like you said, the rising tide that lifts all boats and, and kind of covers up all these other warts and makes Henry look good again. But I do worry about the defense because the Ravens, like, for whatever reason, they do not. If they are down, they. Justice Hill is on the field. It's not Derek Henry. And I just worry that the defense will keep them in that spot even with Lamar, you know, back in and theoretically playing better. The other thing too is, I don't know, like, hamstrings are tricky and if the Ravens are like very much out of it because they keep losing through all these injuries and Lamar is like not 100% that he's had injuries linger in the past where they've kind of gone on longer than the team was talking about. I, I'm just not 100%. He could be, he could rush back this weekend. Right. If they feel really desperate. I'm not saying it's that there's no way he's back after the buy but like it wouldn't shock me if he's not all the way back or if he is back if he's still really limited mobily and really hurts the offense. I'm just kind of throwing that out there as well.
- [23:05]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I mean I, I would be very surprised if it plays. I mean if they have a week seven bye week that to your point, this makes no sense to put him out there if he's less than 100. It's a non conference game. It's against an NFC opponent. So in the grand scheme of things, if they really lose against the Rams, does it really make that much of a difference? Probably. I mean even if Lamar plays this game, they can lose right the ramp. The Rams are one of the better teams in the NFL. So I, I would not the Rams.
- [23:30]
Ryan Wormley
Are going to score 35 points in this game. So it's just going to happen. I promise.
- [23:37]
Andrew Erickson
The Ravens just need to win the AFC north and it's not like the Bengals or Browns are these amazing teams that are going to be again. The Ravens still have almost all their divisional matchups. They're already one no in the division. They beat the Browns already. So I still think even at 1 and 5 that they're not out of this entirely. And all you got to do is get to the dance. And I think that they can make noise if they have like you said, they have Lamar Jackson. Who cares what the defense is like, as long as you got Lamar, you got a shot.
- [24:01]
Ryan Wormley
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- [25:05]
Andrew Erickson
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- [25:08]
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- [25:36]
Dan (Solid Verbal)
I'm Dan, he's Ty. Hello and we're the Solid Verbal College Football Podcast.
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Ty (Solid Verbal)
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- [26:37]
Ryan Wormley
All right Erickson, who's your first running.
- [26:38]
Andrew Erickson
Back to sell Gonna sell? New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Camara. This past week was kind of a smash spot for him against the lonely New York Giants, one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. And Camara did not do that much, so that really makes me concerned about what his ceiling is on a week to week basis playing in the Saints offense. This is the one game that the Saints were favored in and a game that they won at home against a bad defense against the run game and Camara did not hit whatsoever. His receiving usage has been really spotty throughout the year. Spencer Rattler is a mobile quarterback so he doesn't always check the ball down to his running back. Sometimes he just takes off and runs with his legs. So it's been really up and down this past week. It was okay. He did see a decent amount of usage as a receiver. But there are some games this year where he's kind of been non existent as a receiver. So that concerns me. Kendrick Miller is getting more involved. Kendrick Miller had more carries the Camara in this past matchup. 10 carries for 41 yards. He also led the car or Miller also had 39% of the snaps to Camara's 56% on the season. Efficiency wise, Camara is PFF's 14th lowest graded running back. Miller is the fourth highest graded running back for the Saints this year. So looking at okay again this these aren't the be all end all stats but it's trying to capture how efficient player is breaking tackles and yards after contact. Kendrick Miller's been better than Alvin Camara. I don't think that's like too surprising. Camara is an older running back. He's not really known for being the super efficient runner. Especially throughout the last couple years he's known.
- [28:07]
Ryan Wormley
I think, I think it might be surprising how big that disparity is. I don't think it's surprising that Miller's looked better, but that's a pretty wide gap.
- [28:12]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, it's pretty wide gap and I think it's good to compare them side by side because they are running behind the same offensive line so they're, you know, put in similar situations. And Kendra Miller has been the more efficient rusher. So I don't think that his opportunities are going to be going away because he's playing well. He's received positive coach speak. So Kendra Miller is a player that's starting to eat into Camara's workload. And then you have this other third factor with Taysom Hill coming back to the lineup. Taysom held six carries his first game back, so that is a concern. Every opportunity that Taysum Hill is getting. So he touched the ball on seven of his nine offensive snaps, one of which came at the Giants 12 yard line. So again just more players that are eating into what could go to Camara, whether it's touchdowns, whether it's receptions, whether it's carries, and then he plays for the Saints offense. Like we know that the ceiling on this team is not really high anyway. So for me, I'm trying to sell Camara. I think at this point you're hoping he gets traded. I mean, I think that's the ideal outcome. If you have Camara on your team, he goes to a contender that needs a running back upgrade. We talked about the Chiefs earlier. Maybe they're a team that makes a play for Kamara, but besides that, if he's on the Saints team, I, I just don't see a scenario where I trade away Camara. And I think, man, that was the biggest mistake I made, trading away Alvin Camara on the Saints, who aren't going to win a lot of games. He's in now potentially a three headed committee with Taysom Hill now added into the fold. So I'm definitely trying to get out of Camara.
- [29:37]
Ryan Wormley
He's not going to totally bottom out for you, right? Like the usage is strong enough that he's not going to have like an RB65 type of a week. But yeah, like the ceiling. I mean I, you could have argued against the ceiling before the season, just knowing what the Saints offense would look like in terms of like the touchdown scoring opportunity. He has one touchdown this season and it came in week one. He has not scored in the last month and that's including like receiving and rushing touchdowns. He has not scored any, you know, dating back to week one. So yeah, like I, I'm with you on the ceiling here. What do you think you can get for somebody like him right now who is, you know, older? He's, he's 30 and people tend to not be that interested in running backs who are 30. He's on what is perceived to be like maybe the worst offensive football, at least one of the worst. He hasn't been that good. He has a young running back they share in the backfield with. Like, what do you think you could actually get for him right now just based on the name value?
- [30:30]
Andrew Erickson
Could you get your Cory Crosky merit or is the, is the window closed shut after this past week?
- [30:37]
Ryan Wormley
They're ranked two spots apart in, in ECR for rest of season rankings. So if people are going by that maybe there's an opportunity. I would imagine a lot of people, like, if you, we always talk about this like kind of the emotional side of trades. Like if you were the guy who got Jacquard Crosby merit in draft when there was so much hype and you know, it was bill season and just everybody's so excited if you got him. And now you just saw what he did this last week. Like you're not trading him for an aging veteran who's looked bad. Like you're just you. Even if, even if you agreed with the ranking and said I actually have Camara higher rest of season, it's hard to pull the trigger there.
- [31:19]
Andrew Erickson
I mean I, I mean I would take the Bill side. So that's one of the reasons why I, you know, talked about him last week. I, I'm trying to think of other potential names. I'm looking at my rest of season rankings to get an idea of like where I have him ranked with the other running backs because I, I mean where is he in the rest season ranking? He's got to be like the low end RB2 rank.
- [31:39]
Ryan Wormley
Maybe what you would do is I think he's RB22. I, I just clicked. I believe he's RB22.
- [31:47]
Andrew Erickson
So look, he's not a name we're bringing up specifically here, but every single week the universe is trying to make Travion Henderson a thing.
- [31:56]
Ryan Wormley
Like I think that's, that's what I think you could do because people who have Trayvon Henderson would want are, are kind of ready to move on. So that one I think is, is like doable.
- [32:05]
Andrew Erickson
Even though every single week besides Travion Henderson's on field performance, it gives you a reason to buy said player. Antonio Gibson's gonna miss the rest of the year. Ray Stevenson just, I mean, what about what, I don't know what kind of dirty has on Mike Bravo to keep him in the game?
- [32:23]
Ryan Wormley
What about some of like if you look at the flex rest of season rankings, what about some of the receivers? Like if you needed a receiver, you know, Xavier Worthy, DK Metcalf, Stefan Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr. Quentin Johnson, do those sounds like the right names for a trade with Camara?
- [32:37]
Andrew Erickson
I think Diggs would be a good move to make especially for a running back needy team. Maybe you can't really move Camara for a running back straight up. Maybe it has to be for a flex option or a wide receiver like you mentioned. And I think that he would be an interesting player to go after. Diggs has looked really good the last two weeks. He's really popped off. He hasn't scored over those two weeks. Even though the Patriots are trying to get him into the end zone, they were trying desperately to get him in the end zone against Buffalo. It Just didn't end up working out. But that would be another option. I think Camara, you gotta go to a manager that is running back needy. Find the player that lost o' Marian Hampton. They're looking because it's like if I'm looking at Hassan Haskins or Alvin Kamara, I'd rather have Kamara than Hassan Haskins at this point. Especially behind the Chargers offensive line that is just decimated by injuries. So that's a good move to or way to approach moving Camara who again we talked about it. The stock isn't high on him. He's not really a sell high per se. But he does have some value. And with bye weeks people might need a running back.
- [33:33]
Ryan Wormley
Give me your other running back to sell.
- [33:35]
Andrew Erickson
My other running back is David Montgomery. This comes after he had a big game against Cincinnati Bengals. We talked about this on the betting pro show Trail Firminx brought up. This was like a homecoming game for Dave Montgomery who is a Cincinnati born and raised. His sister was at this game. Get to see him play for the first time and I think that Dan Campbell like really bought into this and like hey, like let's get Dave Montgomery more carries. He threw a touchdown in this game like that. Like that's not part of his natural role on the Detroit Lions. So given the just I mean it was the Cincinnati. This was just like a smash spot for Dave Montgomery. So in the beyond the waiver wire article I was writing about Dave Montgomery talking about after the Ravens game, I thought that he was a sell high candidate after that game. But if you didn't sell high after that monster game on prime time like the Bengals game was the spot. Wait till he plays the Bengals. Multiple touchdowns, throwing one rushing for a touchdown. Had more carries than Jameer Gibbs. I think this is the time for you to sell high on Dave Montgomery who we still know is a part time running back. And the Lions have a much tougher matchup this week. They're on the road against the Chiefs. Like that is a much tougher spot for this Lions offense, especially against the Chiefs run defense. It slowed down Travis Etienne on Monday Night Football. So Dave Montgomery for me would be a sell high.
- [34:46]
Ryan Wormley
Yeah, I, I agree. I don't really honestly have too much to to add on this one or push back on. I just think he makes a lot of sense as I actually did sell him in a league, you know, very recently it's a dynasty league. So it's kind of hard to to say it was a. So we in this league we have a Ton of great running backs. I mean at the time, obviously like a Marian Hampton's gotten hurt now, but we had Hamp Bijan, James Cook, Aaron Jones, like, you know, it's come back at some point. There's another running back I'm forgetting. But we obviously had a lot of really good running backs that we were not never going to start David Montgomery over. He was like at best our RB5 and we have no young receivers. So he traded him for Luther Burden. You know, again, it's a dynasty league and we, we have a lot of depth there. So I'm not saying that's the type of trade you should make in like a, a redraft league if you have David Montgomery. But the point is like being willing to sell. Like I'm very on board with that.
- [35:44]
Andrew Erickson
Now one other guy we didn't mention as a player to maybe buy with either Camara or Montgomery and this is a lot less about the like longevity of his value. But if you need wins right now, Rashad White, like is he a player that, hey, he's got the ceiling right now because he's the guy right now for the Buccaneers. Bucky Irving, we've seen kind of mixed reports about it. Seems like he, I think he said, they said he has like a shoulder injury now too. So he's like all sorts of banged up. So we don't know when he's going to return. And in the meantime we know that Rashad White, he's been an RB one in the past. The Buccaneers are a fun offense. Their defense is injured all in their secondary. I mean it's just, it's the same thing with the Bucs. Their secondary is terrible. They're pass final defense. They're playing a bunch of shootouts.
- [36:26]
Ryan Wormley
What about if you're a team that isn't like, I don't need to win right away because his players on bye and he's coming off of a bad game. But what about Woody Marks? There was so much excitement for him coming off of that week four game. Did not follow it up in week five. If you're like, listen, I don't care about the bye week this week. I have enough depth or I'm five zero or whatever. Would you trade one of those veterans for just the upside swing on Woody Marks even though he's coming off a bad game?
- [36:51]
Andrew Erickson
I don't think so. You know, Woody Marks, to me I think he's more of a hold because the Texas offensive line is not changing. Right. I think that's still a big issue for him from when it comes to a run blocking perspective, I don't think Nick Chubb is going to be just totally supplanted. I think he's going to remain involved. Even in Woody Mark's breakout game in week four. You know, Chubb was still kind of involved, so I think we take more of a chub injury and then there's always that, you know, I don't think Joe Mix is coming back, but there's always like a chance that maybe he does come back at some point, which kind of muddle these things up a little bit more. So I think with the Texans right now, you're kind of just. I would just hold those players. Like you said, they're also on a buy this week. Yeah.
- [37:32]
Ryan Wormley
All right, let's go to our running back trios here. Buy, sell or hold. I've got three trios for you. First one, buy, seller, hole, Javante Williams, Kyron Williams, Breece hall, who we already talked about a bit. Again, buy, seller, hole, Javante Williams, Kyron Williams, Breeze Hall.
- [37:48]
Andrew Erickson
So for me, I'm going to buy Breeze hall because we already talked about that. So I'm not going to change my stance here. Although I could see Breeze hall being a hold and then Javante Williams being the buy. I just, I just love what I've seen from Javante Williams. I think that he's all the way back. People forget, but he's only 25 years old. This isn't some like old dusty running back. It's a running back that was really productive when he was young, had this devastating injury and it's just taken him a long time to get back to where he is now and that's just fully all the way back. He is the Dallas Cowboys full blown bow cow. Even playing behind patchwork offensive line pieces. Him, Dak Prescott. This Cowboys offense has somehow been able to function at a high level despite missing so many pieces and those pieces are going to come back. A lot of these injuries are not season ending so they're going to get offensive line help back in future games. They're going to get Lamb back in future games. So Javante Williams, I think that I'm all in on in terms of rest of season and I think he's definitely one of the biggest hits of the 2025 season. We start talking about running backs who grade well efficiency wise and Javante across the board is like a top 10 efficiency monster this season. So I don't think that this is going to fizzle out. I think that he is here to stay so he would be the guy to buy hold and then by default I would guess I would put Kyron Williams on the sell high. I think that the past game numbers that he had on Thursday night are just absolutely insane. From what we've seen from Kyro, he is. I don't think he's ever had that much that I think he had 10 targets. Just absolute bonkers game for Kyron Williams. But the fumbling again like this doesn't stop with Kyron Williams. Now Blake Corm also fumbled, although I think that the technically in the box score, it was credited as a Matthew Stafford fumble. But it's pretty clear like who fumbled the ball. It was on the play. So it's not really about Blake Corum anymore. They have been more open to using Blake Corm a little bit more. And I do think just like when you're trying to pick hairs between like these types of three players, I think that Corum is the biggest threat to these three running backs. Right. When you're just looking at who is behind them, you know, Jaden Blue, Miles Sanders, not really afraid of those guys. Breece hall we already talked about, Braylon Allen's on injured reserve. And then I think Blake Corum, you know, again I don't think he's just, he's supplanting Kyron Williams. I think Kyron Williams is the RB one for the Rams. But Corum is the best backup of these three that we're talking about. So I think that he would probably be the sell. Especially after a very spiked Week 2 Touchdowns receiving usage off the charts. I don't think that's necessarily something that sustains all year long when you have guys like Pukinaku and Devonte Adams.
- [40:18]
Ryan Wormley
Next trio, J.K. dobbins, Alvin Kamara who we also already talked about and Chuba Hubbard who I wanted to include because obviously he didn't play this week. But we just saw this awesome game from Rico Dowdle. I wondered if that kind of impacted how you're viewing Hubbard even though he wasn't actually on the field in that one. So Dobbins, Camara and Hubbard buy seller hold.
- [40:36]
Andrew Erickson
So Camara will remain my sell here. I think Dobbins would probably be the best hold of the players. Maybe he would be a sell high type of player just because we know his injury track record. And eventually you'd think that maybe they do try to get RJ Harvey a little bit more involved as the season progresses. But if you just have J.K. dobbins and you just play him every week and you know, if he gets hurt at some point, so be it. I don't hate that idea either. Just because to ride the wave, it's sometimes tough to project. Like when exactly these running backs go down. It's not like we're all predicting, oh, this is going to be the week, but Irving gets hurt. You know, it's, it's hard to predict that sometimes. But I would not be surprised if Dobbins does type of fizzle out at some point. But right now I think that you can kind of just keep them playing in your lineup. And then Chuba Hubbard, for me, I was kind of lukewarm on him during draft season. I thought that Rico Douda could have a bigger role in this offense. And when you rush for, I mean, you rush for 200 yards in a game, you can't just, oh, yeah, you're going back to the bench. I don't think that's going to happen. So I think Chuba Hubbard, even as I sell low, I think he would be the guy that I think you can probably try to package away just because I don't think that, yes, he'll be going back to the RB1 spot for the Carolina Panthers, but is it as obvious of a he's the number one, Rico Dell's number two. It's probably more of a 1A 1B type of situation. Rest of season.
- [41:54]
Ryan Wormley
Last trio here. Tony Pollard, DeAndre Swift, Zach Charbonnet, buy seller, hold again. Pollard, Swift and Charbonnet.
- [42:03]
Andrew Erickson
Can I sell all these guys? Is that an option? Can I sell everybody? Who do I want to buy from these? I guess I'll buy Zach Charbonnet just because he's one Kenneth Walker injury away from being an RB1. So I will buy Charbonnet. He's also probably the cheapest because he has the RB2 designation even though he out snaps Kenneth Walker. I just died the box scores for the Seahawks running backs. You see Ken Walker rips off like eight yards of carry. They just see Zach Charbonnet. Same amount of carries, 3 yards carry, scores touchdowns. Just so tilting, but it is what it is. And Charbonnet again, kind of like at a cream hunt way, just finds his way into the end zone in Seattle's been very effective running the football this year. So I'll buy a Zach Charbonnet because he's cheap. And I have Ken Walker on a bunch of teams. I'm not, I'm not. I want, I'm getting selling Tony Paul and Donji Swift. I'm not picking to hold because I don't want any of these guys on my team. So I'm selling both.
- [42:54]
Ryan Wormley
You just consistently break through. The whole point is that this is a difficult decision and you just go, I. I choose got to make the decision.
- [43:00]
Andrew Erickson
I guess I would hold Swift because he already because he already had his bye week. And Kyle Menungai, as much as I'd like to be a believer, he has also been really inefficient this year. Just because the Bears run game has been inefficient this year, I would expect Ben Johnson to have something else cooked up coming out of their bye week. So maybe we get a little bit of a bump for Swift and then you sell high on him. Whereas Pollard, I think is trending in the wrong direction. I think we're going to see more of Tajie Spears this week. They've already talked about that. Callahan talked about how, yes, it was his first game back, so we're going to see Taj Spears get more involved. And actually on the broadcast they mentioned that Cam Ward, when he was talking about Tajai Spears coming back, he mentioned to the production team Superman's back when talking about Tajie Spears. So Cam Ward's a big fan of Tajie Spears and I think that you're going to see more of a split backfield upcoming in week six.
- [43:48]
Ryan Wormley
You're like Lucille Bluth in Arrested Development when I ask some of these and you're just like, I don't understand the question and I won't respond to it. You refuse to play the game. Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific fantasy trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. Be sure to check out part two when it drops either on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast on audio. That'll be, like I said, diving into wide receivers and then a bit of quarterback and tight end talk as well. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [45:10]
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- [45:40]
Dan (Solid Verbal)
And I'm Dan, and we're the Solid.
- [45:42]
Ty (Solid Verbal)
Verbal College Football Podcast.
- [45:44]
Dan (Solid Verbal)
College football is pure chaos, and that's exactly why we love it.
- [45:48]
Ty (Solid Verbal)
The Solid Verbal will keep you sane through all the madness.
- [45:52]
Dan (Solid Verbal)
We'll break down the big games and.
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Ty (Solid Verbal)
Storylines and of course, highlight the weird stuff.
- [45:57]
Dan (Solid Verbal)
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Ty (Solid Verbal)
Listen to the Solid Verbal College Football podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [46:11]
Ryan Wormley
This is an iHeart podcast.