← FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 7 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1772)
00:43:42
Loading summary
Transcript87 lines
- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. If you're a smoker or dipper ready to make a change, you really only need one good reason. But with Zynn Nicotine Pouches, you'll discover many good reasons. Zynn is America's number one nicotine pouch brand. Plus Zynn offers a robust rewards program. There are lots of options when it comes to nicotine satisfaction, but there's only one Zyn. Check out zyn.com find to find Zyn at a store near you. Warning this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Tuesday morning, although it's bordering on Tuesday afternoon. We are recording this a little later in the day than usual. Thanks for the flexibility there, Erickson. It is Andrew Erickson. How you doing here? Six weeks into the fantasy season, already doing absolutely fantastic.
- [00:54]
B
My New England Patriots 4 and 2 are atop. The AFC east is talking to I think it was Peralt one of the betting shows earlier today. But all is right in the world. The AFC east once again the Patriots are on top. Jets, Dolphins on the bottom. They're both terrible. So feeling, feeling, feeling very, very good heading into week seven.
- [01:12]
A
Yeah, well we are going to talk about some Monday Night Football reaction here. We had another doubleheader by the way, there's yet another double header next week. Erickson, I can't believe it. I'm so tired of these. I don't like them at all. But we're going to do a recap there in lieu of our kind of macro level trade advice just because it gets to be too overcrowded in these episodes where we have multiple Monday night games. The reason the Patriots are in first place is because in the first of these Monday night games the Bills lost and they lost in pretty convincing fashion. Honestly. The Falcons won 24 to 14. It didn't even really feel all that close. Watching the game, the Falcons really kind of pantsed the Bills. This game was in Atlanta, but it continues a trend for Buffalo where it took a fourth quarter miracle to beat the Ravens in week one. They didn't look that dominant against against the Saints. They obviously have now lost two in a row against the Patriots and the Falcons. I don't know who the who the best team in football or the AFC is. It's probably the Chiefs, which is annoying because felt like this is a chance to finally bury them. And of course Burrow is hurt. Lamar is hurt. So is the Ravens defense. The Bills are underperforming. We're just leaving another wide open Runway for the Chiefs. I digress. Let's talk about this Bills Falcons game. On the Falcons side, like, I don't even really know what you say. Bijan Robinson, insane monster, great game. Drake London, insane monster, great game. I mean those two had. I don't know what the exact number is, but it must have been 85% of the yards in this game. For the Falcons, it was just all Bijan and all London. Kyle Pitts, just three catches for 18 yards. Algier did get a touchdown. Algeria just looks good. Like if he had the opportunity. I mean, I only had 3.2 yards per carry, but just watching him, like if Bijan wasn't in this backfield, I'd be so excited about Alir. But yeah, this is, this is the Bijan and London show. Pennix, I thought looked better than he has times earlier in the season. And then on the bill side, James Cook does not get in the end zone. 17 attempts, 87 yards. Ray Davis does catch a long, not long, but you know, a catch and run 16 yard touchdown pass at one point. So theoretically that could have gone to Cook. It did not. Khalil Shakir, just 3 for 33. I mean, Josh Allen had two interceptions, just threw 480 yards. He did have two touchdowns to Davis and Knox, but Allen was pretty bad in this, in this game. Erickson, I assume you would agree with me that there's really not much to take away long term here. It was kind of like the stars showed out outside of Allen and we don't really have long term concern about Allen.
- [03:36]
B
Yeah, you know, the Falcons players that you were starting got it done. And it was a reminder of why I wanted to draft Drake London so aggressively this offseason. The last two games, basically since the Falcons fired their wide receiver coach Drake London has just been an absolute monster. So Darnell Mooney didn't play in this game. Ray. Ray McLeod, the receiver three for the Falcons was a healthy scratch. So he also did not play in this game. E. So you were expecting it to be London. Casey Washington is the other receiver and then Kyle Pitts. I mean, this was a good spot for him too. Like there was no Mooney and he laid a turd like it was worst.
- [04:10]
A
Game of the season for him.
- [04:11]
B
Yeah, it was a bad game for Kyle Pitts and it just looked bad too. Like he. One of his catches, he like fell down. So just more inconsistency from Kyle Pitts. I think that he's a streaming Tight end. I don't know if he's in the circle of trust when it comes to tight ends. I will say with the Falcons long term. Michael Penix, if you need a quarterback to stream, the Falcons have a really good schedule. Rest of the season. They actually have. This is per the Fantasy Pro strength of schedule tool. The number one schedule for fantasy quarterbacks belongs to the Atlanta Falcons. So Josh Allen on a bye week, you need a quarterback. Michael Penix could be your answer maybe this week. Or if you're looking for quarterback long term, maybe you have a Justin Fields problem. Michael Penix basically could be an answer for your quarterback problems. On the Bill side, Josh Palmer got hurt in this game on his second catch. During the broadcast they talked about, hey, Joe Brady wants to get Josh Palmer more involved. So I'm thinking, all right baby, here we go. Fifth year breakout. It's finally happening. Catches a monster pass, I think on the first drive, but gets hurt on his second catch. So you were expecting like guys like Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakura kind of step up. Dalton Kincaid also didn't play in this game. Dawson Knox caught a touchdown on the opening drive, which is basically one of the only good things that the Bills offense did. Bills are on a bye week as I mentioned, so some of those guys will be coming back. But I mean Keon Coleman I think to me is someone that they need just to get more out of like if this Bill's offense is going to take that next step. Now he does have six plus targets in back to back weeks. He's a 23% target share which leads a team in the last two weeks. So it's kind of like underlying encouragement for Keon Coleman. But obviously the box score stats haven't really been there. He hasn't ripped out the big plays or had as many touchdowns as we'd like. So I think he could get dropped during the bye week. I think he's kind of like a sneaky kind of stash just to kind of see how things shake out just because no one's really established himself as like the true alpha in this Bill's passing game. So those are some of my thoughts from that Bills and also like, please, Ty Johnson, just enough of this playing him over James Cook, please just get him on the field, man. He's like, they pay this guy all this money and they're like, nah, we're going to use Ty Johnson instead. I get, they like him in the pass catching role. But James Cook can catch passes too, man, just get them on the field.
- [06:16]
A
Just two teams on by this upcoming week seven, it is the Ravens and Bills. I know the Ravens have been disappointing, but those were the two best offenses going into the start of the season. So you know a lot of big name players on there that will be on your bench. Even with only two teams on by this week with it being Buffalo and Baltimore. Let's look at the other Monday night game. The Bears win at the last second on a field goal 25 to 24. Caleb Williams, 252 yards, a touchdown, no picks. Jane Daniels, 211 yards, three touchdowns and one pick. As far as the quarterbacks who are both obviously in their second year went back to back in the draft last year going head to head again here the running backs. DeAndre Swift looked good. I mean 14 carries, 108 yards and like passing the eye test certainly I thought looked really good. Of course he also had you know, the most receiving yards on the team led by that 55 yard catch and run for the touchdown. He ended up with 67 yards in the receiving game. Swift did Luther Burden had four targets, four catches, 51 yards. He had the most yards of anybody on the Bears besides Swift notable as a rookie. Coming out of the bye week you see tend to see that a lot and that was something we saw with Burden here. DJ Moore did you see by the way like what the fallout was from him going to the hot. I, I, I was surprised to see that he was staying overnight in the D.C. area at a local hospital. It seemed like it was more of a precaution than anything else but I didn't, unless I just missed it this morning. I didn't see like a real follow up to what that was in regards to or what the kind of long term thing would be there. So worth noting just to keep an eye on that roma dun, just two catches, 32 yards. He did have a touchdown that was called back by a horrific illegal formation penalty. So that was a bummer for me.
- [07:57]
B
Because I was facing bad week for the refs.
- [07:59]
A
Horrible week for the refs. I mean it was an abo, abominable week for the rest. I thought there was, you know, there was a lot of this week. Erickson was a lot of missed or I would say incorrect offensive pass interference calls. There were so many calls this week where they either missed an egregious one or they, or they called it and there was nothing there taking points off the board for our fantasy players. So that was, that was another frustrating.
- [08:23]
B
Guy as just get a point for Fantasy like no, like I, I deserve that catch. If I wasn't interfere with. Give me a point.
- [08:32]
A
Yeah, I, I wouldn't hate it. So that that was, that was on the bear side of things. Jaquie Crosby, Merritt, 17 carries, 61 yards he had was just credited for one fumble. Right. Because the other one went to Jayne Daniels or was he credited for two?
- [08:45]
B
It was kind of hard to like. It was kind of like it was a bad snap, bad exchange.
- [08:49]
A
It wasn't really Bill's fault, but I don't remember. I don't recall checking who was actually credited to. So it might have been him actually.
- [08:56]
B
Yeah. Either way it's not great that Bill has fumbled back to back games but they're not going away from him. I mean Chris Rodriguez played one snap. Jeremy Nichols had two carries. Now Rodriguez into the game kind of banged up. So I don't wasn't his big him to have a massive role but Bill still clearly their. Their best running back in his schedule. Rest of season is number one in the strength of schedule tool for fantasy pros. So you got to hold him and he's continues to be a buy for me. Yeah.
- [09:22]
A
Is there, is there anything here in the receiving game with the Commanders in terms of like, even with McLaren out, Debo didn't really do much. It was. Chris Moore had a touchdown. It was a nice catch. Luke McCaffrey continues to get inexplicably open one time a game. You know, Zach Ertz had his usual six yard touchdown that he seems to always find. Was there anything here in the passing game? Like are you interested in anybody besides Debo and of course McLaurin once he's back?
- [09:48]
B
No, not really. I mean McCaffrey, he's scoring on a bunch of longer touchdown plays which isn't really super sustainable because he's not seeing like this massive route share in the commander's passing game. I think Devo is kind of doing what he typically does where he comes out first month on fire, gets banged up and then you start to see the production kind of tail off here. So I know that we talked about him on the show as like a sell high candidate and now this is kind of like the reason why because you get concerned about what happens when he does get banged up. And Terry McLaurin is going to be coming back soon. They thought that he had a chance to play this week. Obviously that did not happen. So I think that there's a good chance he plays next week against the Dallas Cowboys, which I mean if you can get McLaren back, like, that's a. That's an awesome matchup for him. So you're still going to go back to Deebo. And he did enter this game, like, very questionable, so he may have been more hurt than was being led on, but these injuries happened with him. So just a reminder for. For guys, if you're holding on to Debo, that this production, it was going may, may not or may tail off at some point, I kind of blew.
- [10:48]
A
Past the Chicago side of things. Did you have any thoughts on that? I mean, again, like, Swift looked really good. Everybody else kind of, you know, largely under. Under producing, I guess, because, I mean, Luther Burden, I guess I should also, you know, mention again, again coming out of the bye week. So guys like Swift and Burden, what'd you think about them?
- [11:06]
B
Yeah, Swift definitely makes me look really bad for my sell on him a couple weeks back just because he came out of the gates. After the bye week, the Bears run game entirely looked much, much better. They were running the ball much more effectively, getting Swift out in space. Swift actually had the same amount of carries as he did the week before, and the yardage is like, totally on opposite ends of the spectrum. Like, you would be like, is this the same running game? So I think if you have Swift, I still think that he is kind of maxed out as a fantasy RB2. But at the same time, you look at the upcoming schedule for the Bears and it's Saints, Ravens, Bengals, Giants. It's a really good run for the running back. So I do like holding Swift for now. If you still have him on your roster. I still like Kyle Manungai as a stash ad that he looked a little bit better, too. And he played a decent amount of snaps in this game. He saw a red zone carry. So I think Luther Burton, though, is the highlight because he's available on waivers and you can still add him. He played 23% of the snaps. But you said, like, very productive. Four catches which led the team 51 yards on four targets. He had a season high in route participation, 41%, 31% target rate per out run. And I also thought Alamodes Achilles looked really bad in this game. Like he had multiple drops. So when Ben Johnson and the team goes back to review the film of this game, I think it's going to be clear that, hey, we need to get Burden more involved in this offense. He needs to be playing more snaps in this offense. We need to get less of Olamide Zacchaeus on the field and more of Luther Burden. And also, if There's a chance that this DJ Moore thing is long term. Again, we don't have all the details about, you know, why he was being kept overnight in the hospital, but if he has like some type of injury, that would obviously be a boost for Luther Burden to see more playing time.
- [12:52]
A
I didn't realize that I beat you in the Dynasty league that we're in together thanks to DeAndre Swift. I was just looking now because I, I thought, I thought Bijan, his big game for you was gonna kind of be the nail in the coffin for me. But I was like, I'll go check, see what that because, because I have a dunesday. And I was like, oh, when that touchdown came off the board like it was. I was cooked. But I did actually pull it out thanks to that swift 55 yard touchdown. So.
- [13:14]
B
Well, Swift, Swift's really making me eat it for. For listening as a cell in more ways than one.
- [13:19]
A
So yeah, revenge game for him.
- [13:20]
B
Tipper Cat Tipper Cap to Swift. He beat me. So yeah, there you go.
- [13:25]
A
All right, let's get into our running backs to buy here as we jump into the meat of the show. Who is your first running back to buy? Erickson?
- [13:33]
B
My first running back to buy is Javante Williams for the Dallas Cowboys. So on the Week 6 ranking show, Fitz and I were talking about Javante with Welsh and I was all ready to team up. Top five running back this week against the Carolina Panthers and Fitz pulled some cold water on it saying, man, I don't know. The Panthers run defense was pretty decent against Achan two weeks ago and their Panthers defense showed up again. So They've held Devon HN and Javonte Williams to less than 2.2 yards per carry in back to back weeks. They give it up 50 rushing yards in the last two weeks, which is kind of insane. They usually get 50 rushing yards like and a half, let alone in two games total. So he's had a bad game, but this is really his first really bad game all year long. And everything else is pointing to. There's no issues with Javonte Williams. 85% of the snaps, six red zone opportunities, but he didn't score. He had 18 touches, he had eight targets. And Jaden Blue only played five offensive snaps after Miles Sanders was placed on injured reserve. So Jaden Blue I don't think is ever going to push Javante for bell cow usage. That's not really what blue profile as he's more of a complimentary piece pass catcher out of the backfield, explosive playmaker. So I think even if he does see more involvement, I think Javante is still going to be the clear cut bellcow in this offense that is going to get better as the season goes on. They're going to get land back, they're going to get offensive line pieces back. So I want to be buying Javante Williams. I like the schedule overall. Coming up commanders at the Broncos revenge game for Javante Williams again can ignore these with some of these running backs and then home against the Arizona Cardinals before week 10 bye week. So Williams, I think he's been Fantastic this year. 7th in rushing success rate. And I think that what's flying under the radar with Lamb returning is he is the tie that lifts all boats and if him being in the offense just creates more scoring opportunities for Dallas, their defense continues to be bad. Well, that means Javante Williams is going to get a ton of opportunities to find the end zone, catch passes out of the backfield and run for a ton of yards. So I want to buy Javonte Williams for and maybe there's some managers that are still like not convinced. Like hey, is this still like is this legit? I think he is legit so I want to buy him.
- [15:46]
A
Yeah, I mean this is the outlier so far this season, right? Like everything else, his worst Finish in half PPR scoring prior to week six was RB25 and even that looks like the outlier because besides that it's he's never been lower than RB14 this season. I mean he's been really consistent. He's getting between 17 to 25 opportunities every game between the targets and the attempts. He scored a touchdown in in four out of six weeks. Now this was just his second week not scoring and, and that commander's game next week, look what they just gave up to DeAndre Swift who we had been a little down on like and now, now we get to see Javante Williams go against it and, and Lamb might be. They were talking about it as a possibility so we'll see. But yeah, like there is a small part of me Erickson who looks at Javante Williams and says, you know, because we talked about him as sort of a version of this year's J.K. dobbins. We were talking during draft season in terms of a guy who had had these bad, this bad injury history and but was going to have this great opportunity in an offense because nobody else is going to compete for touches and it was an offense that we believed in. It's really panned out that way. Dobbins did fall off eventually last year from what you have described and I would agree with you on this, but I just want to give you the chance to clarify. Javante has looked good enough that we're not expecting a fall off right there. This isn't like, oh, like because he's looked really good, wait for the next good game and sell. This just seems legitimate, right?
- [17:16]
B
Yes, I think that's legitimate. And I think the difference between Williams and Dobbins was Dobbins was getting injured all the time in different ways. Like it wasn't just one injury that was kind of plaguing Dobbins where Javante. It was just one really gruesome injury and it's just taken three years for him to get back to. Okay, this is what he was like before he got injured. Again, he's still a relatively. He's only 25 years old, so he's a relatively young running back. And it just, I mean last year he didn't miss really any games from being hurt. He just wasn't efficient last season because he wasn't recovered fully from his knee injury. So I think that he is all the way back and you want pieces of this Dallas offense. And right now, again, after a bad game, I think this is an opportunity to try to swoop in and maybe scoop up Williams on a discount.
- [18:00]
A
Is he a top 12 running back for you rest of the season? He is in. He is in consensus. He's RB12 rest of the season?
- [18:06]
B
Definitely.
- [18:06]
A
Yeah. All right, who's your other running back to buy?
- [18:09]
B
So I finally know what to do with Isaiah Pacheco and I want to buy Isaiah Pacheco and that's because a couple few reasons for it. He looked really good in the last game that the Chiefs played and the way that he's being used lately is the Chiefs are kind of showing their cards a little bit with how they want this backfill to be deployed. They are trying to kind of ease out of the cream Hunt experience, embrace more of Isaiah Pacheco. So in week six, 77 snap share season high and carries with 12 and this was after he had a season high in snaps in week five. So they're continuing to play him more on offense. And this is per Next gen stats. So against the lions he had four rushes of 15 plus yards. He had four combined rushes of that criteria leading up to week six. So the explosiveness is starting to kind of appear with Pacheco when he's on the field. He had more targets than Hunt in this past week he had three targets. Burchard Smith also had four targets, but that's the only way that he was used. The rookie running back and but most importantly, he had four red zone carries to Hunt. One. So we're starting to see Pacheco kind of carve out a larger red zone role which has kind of been Kareem Hunt's calling card. Which is one of the reasons why Pacheco has been really hard to trust is because, oh, Hunt's always going to vulture the touchdown. I don't think that's going to be the case moving forward here. I think they recognize Pacheco is the guy that has the most juice and now they're going to use him more in the red zone. The pass catching is still kind of iffy because Burchard Smith is a receiver. So I'm not super bullish on that necessarily. But if the Chiefs offense turns back to a fantasy football wagon again, Rashi Rice is coming back. If this offense is cooking a top five fantasy offense, then Pacheco is going to benefit. And for how low the view of Pacheco is, should I drop Pacheco? We've been getting questions about this all season long and up to this point I didn't really know what to do with him because like I, I don't know man, he plays on the Chiefs like that's like the one thing that you could hold on to. So I think that he is valued by his manager as basically nothing. So I think you can get him for basically really, really cheap. And I want pieces of this chief offense. If Rice comes back and we get the Chiefs of old and they're scoring 30 plus points every single week, Pacheco is going to benefit one way or another. If he's the lead running back, which the last two weeks that has been the case. So top 10 schedule, rest of season for the Kansas City Chiefs. I want to buy Pacheco on the dirt cheap because I don't think the manager that has him is going to value him nearly as highly as what his actual outlook will be.
- [20:40]
A
Yeah, what do you think it would cost to get Pacheco? Because I, I mean like his weekly finish at the position in half PPR scoring RB 44, 49, 43, 24, 31, 34. He's been inside the top 30 once and it was only as high as RB 24 and that was just the week he caught a touchdown pass and again he caught a touchdown pass and he still finished just barely inside the top 24 running backs. Like he's only been double digits in half PPR scoring once this season. He should be cheap for is basically the point I'm agreeing with you on. So what do you think it would cost to get him specifically Tony Pollard.
- [21:13]
B
That gets it done? Do you, I mean do you want to Ballard anymore? I, I, I particularly don't. He's on the Titans. Just from a game script perspective, who's going to score more touchdowns the rest of the way? The Titans or the or not the Titans versus Chiefs, that's obvious. But Pacheco or Tony Pollard probably just bet on Pacheco being the guy. So I think Pollard is someone that you could trade Jacoby Myers. He's been a ghost for the Raiders as a receiver. Maybe he's another option for a team that needs a wide receiver. So or even like a backup tight end, right? If you have another tight end that you're not using, flip him for a player like Isaiah Pacheco. So those are some of the options I was thinking about.
- [21:51]
A
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. We know Tuesdays are for scouting the waiver wire. Once you're done finding your diamond in the rough, head on over to Hard Rock Bet. See what their odds are to score another touchdown. See what their yardage total over is too. On Hard Rock Bet, you don't have to wait for week seven to kick off to get in on the action. There's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollar bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings but $150 in extra bonus bets. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit now payable and Bonus bets.
- [22:34]
B
Not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC and other states. Must be 21 and physically present in.
- [22:40]
A
Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey.
- [22:43]
B
Ohio, Tennessee or Virginia. To play. Terms and conditions apply.
- [22:46]
A
Concerned about gambling in Florida? Call 1888 admit it in Indiana, if.
- [22:50]
B
You or somebody you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-809.
- [22:53]
A
With it gambling problem.
- [22:54]
B
Call 1-800-GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois and New Jersey. Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia if you smoke or dip, I'm going to give you a few good reasons to try Zynn Zyn Nicotine Pouches. First, it's America's number one nicotine pouch brand and Zyn offers a robust rewards program. There's a lot of options for nicotine satisfaction, but there's only one Zyn. So if you go to zyn.com find that's z y n.com find to find Zen at a store near you, this product does contain nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.
- [23:26]
A
Erickson, who's your first running back to sell?
- [23:29]
B
I really wanted to put this guy on the show last week but I got cold feet because I was thinking, man, he's playing in Giants, it's too good of a smash spot for him. And then he rushed for t, rushed for 58 yards on 12 carries against the New York Giants. So I'm talking about Saquon Barkley.
- [23:47]
A
I was gonna say you always see, you always see the meme from the wire. Price of the brick going up. There's like price the brick going down, price of the bark going down.
- [23:54]
B
It has not been a good year for Saquon Barkley. He has not been the same guy as last year. The Eagles offensive line has regressed immensely. Whether that's because of injuries or just the new off the coordinator, it's just the Eagles offense is not functioning at as high a level now. The biggest concern with Barkley was just I think at least for myself, was he had so many touches last year. Is he going to be able to stay healthy? So I mean he's been healthy for the most of the season. I know he had a knee injury that he was dealing with before the Giants game. Maybe that's something that's kind of under the radar. That's still bothering him. But the production has really not been there for saquon. He is PFF's sixth lowest graded running back this season. So yes, the schedule has been tough and but things should have gotten better against the Giants. Like that's why I was so underwhelmed because it was a smash spot for him. Now this week it's the Minnesota Vikings again. Another tough defense. Brian Flores is always tough on opposing offense. It's on the road. I think Sequoia Barclay still has enough name brand cache that you can still get a lot for him in a trade. So I think I'm done with Saquon. The Eagles offense is just really hard to trust right now so I'm looking to put him on the trade block and move him.
- [25:03]
A
Where is he rest of season for you?
- [25:06]
B
He's not in my top five running backs.
- [25:08]
A
So is he in your top 10?
- [25:11]
B
I think he's on the top 10, yeah. Because. Because, like, especially with rest season rankings, you're still trying to capture the trade market value on a certain player. So even if I individually feel that, oh, he should be, you know, absolutely buried, I don't necessarily want his trade value to be of that of a player that's just absolutely buried because he is still safe on Barkley. It's not like he's never gonna. He's not gonna be useless. But I think that I'd rather find other avenues of running back production.
- [25:39]
A
Like, I mean, would you rather Saquon or Derek Henry?
- [25:44]
B
I kind of like buying low on Derek Henry. I think. I think in a deal you could probably do Saquon Barkley to get Derek Henry plus. Right. Wouldn't that be the best way to approach it?
- [25:54]
A
I don't think you'd get a lot plus, but I think I do think you would get a little plus.
- [25:58]
B
A little plus. But when I say a little, you could do. Again, this will be another player we'll talk about. But could you do Sacred Barkley for Derek Henry and Ricky Pierce all.
- [26:10]
A
Maybe. I guess it depends on the manager. I'm. I'm not that ex. I'm not as excited about Derek Henry rest season as other people seem to be. I. I am. I am more apprehensive about the Ravens offense and, and just what Lamar will look. I know we're all assuming he's gonna be back in week eight, and I think that probably will happen, but I don't know if he's going to look like MVP Lamar when he's back. Like, if he's not mobile because hamstrings, like, don't want to push it. They don't want to risk it when they're. I mean, I know that they're in desperation mode and they're still viewing this as not a lost season, but eventually, if they continue to lose, it will be a lost season. Like, how much are they going to run Lamar in that case? Like, how much is he going to actually open things up for Henry? I get nervous about that. So he's an interesting piece. Like, I would truthfully be willing to sell on both Saquon and Henry right now, which is why I. I threw him out there. What, somebody like Saquon or Genti, who would you rather have?
- [27:02]
B
Genti. I like Genti more during draft season. I know that it started out kind of cold for Ash and Genti, but he's been getting it going the last couple of weeks. The Raiders have no other choice but to kind of force him the ball. He is their entire offense. That's the only thing that's working. And the Raiders, as weird as it sounds, have one of the best schedules rest of season for fantasy running backs. And that's according to the strength of schedule tool. So also under the radar, Dylan Louby, the running back for the Raiders, he got hurt in the last game and you saw Genti's route participation skyrocket. So that was kind of annoying where he wasn't playing in two minute drills. I think that they're ready to just unleash the playbook with him and hey, we're not holding back. He's running all the routes, playing all the snaps, getting all the carries, especially with Brock Bowers out. So yes, I definitely would rather have Gendy. Let me give you one more.
- [27:50]
A
You wouldn't. You, you could probably get more than this. But if the manager was holding firm, digging their heels in the sand, they were unwilling to give you any more. Would you trade Saquon Barkley for just Javante Williams straight up?
- [28:06]
B
Think so, yeah. Okay. I'm a believer in Javante. I just love what I've seen this year from him.
- [28:12]
A
And I know, imagine telling yourself that from August that it's not that Saquon is going to stay healthy and before we even get to week seven, you're going to be trading him away for Javante Williams.
- [28:27]
B
Well, who's your.
- [28:28]
A
Yeah, yeah. Who's your other running back to sell?
- [28:30]
B
Ready to be cold takes exposed here? Yeah, the other running back I want to sell. I mentioned him earlier talking about who you can try to use to get Isaiah Pacheco on the cheap is Tony Pollard. I've mentioned him on the show before as a cell. I think we talked about him as a cell last year just because when Tajie Spears is healthy in this, in this lineup, Pollard's production, his snaps, his touches, they all just declined dramatically last week. Just 10 carries for 34 yards against a underrated Raiders defense. Spears was more effective as a rusher. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry at five carries for 31 yards. Pollard had just a 20 rushing success rate. Spears has taken over the past catching role. If the Titans are playing with a negative game script, which they're most likely going to be as a bad team the rest of the season. Yeah, you think, well, that means Spears is going to be playing more than Tony Pollard is again it took one week and Spears already out snapped Tony Pollard 59 to 43%. Pollard's routes dipped to 25 of the dropbacks. So he's been a sell for me in every article I've written the last couple weeks. So hopefully you guys, he's already off your roster but if you're still stuck with them, I think that you can still move him for something like an as I have Pacheco who I just am much more optimistic about their rest of season outlook. He's a bottom five scheduled rest of season for running backs for the Tony Pollard. They just fired their head coach and it's a tough matchup against the Patriots this week. So Tony Pollard is just trending in the complete wrong direction. And, and because there is a new head coach, maybe there's some semblance of oh, maybe they can kind of turn it around with Tony Pollard, but it could also go in the opposite direction where maybe they say well let's just ride Tajai Spears, let's do something like that. So I just a lot of different outcomes with Pollard and this new coaching staff and for the most part I'm just not optimistic that it's going to change for him. So trade him away, package him with something else to try to move up for one of these other players to target or even take a risk on someone that's injured right now and move Tony Pollard.
- [30:30]
A
It's not that difficult to make the case for guys as buy lows and sell highs. I think, I think one of those valuable skill sets you could have in fantasy is knowing when to buy high and sell low and that to me is much, it's rarer to be good at that and it's much more valuable to be good at that than to know, you know, the buy lows and sell highs more. The standard stuff. This is a sell low. This like, sorry, this isn't like sell Tony. This is like going out of business sale on Tony Pollard. Like I, it's a fire sale. I am willing to sell him for peanuts. Like if you get somebody like Pacheco, I think that's great but like I wouldn't even need that. I would just get something that you basically somebody that you're not thinking about to immediately drop. To me that's a win over over Paula rest of season. I, I, I, I really strongly agree with you on this one. I, I to the point where I don't really even have much more to add. I, I think it's clear what direction this backfield is going I think it's clear what direction this team is going. Like, obviously they fired Callahan. Like, this is just not. It's not a situation I want to be involved in. So if you can convince somebody to say, well, listen, like, the ceiling's not that high, but at least there's a floor here, I, I think that's wrong. But try and convince somebody of that and, and sell them. Is somebody who is maybe in desperate need at the position due to injuries or whatever and just needs a warm body. Get, get, get, Get Pollard off your team. Let's be honest. Shopping, not my thing. I can't stand walking through aisle after aisle trying to figure out what will fit, what I'll look good in, changing in those tiny dressing rooms, just all of it. And that's without even getting into my, shall we say, somewhat lacking sense of fashion. Honestly, I'd rather someone just tell me what to wear. If you tired of wasting time trying to figure out your style, Stitch fix has you covered. You just take a quick style quiz, share your size, your vibe, your budget, and boom. You're matched with a real human stylist who handles the rest. They send you a fix box with clothes that actually fit and make sense for your life, work, weekends, whatever. It saves you time, you look great and you don't even have to think about it. It's no risk. All style. Try it all on in the comfort of your own home. Keep what works, send the rest back free. Free shipping and returns always and no subscription required. Plus, get a free try on for your first fix. Get started today@stitchfix.com fantasypros to get $20 off your first order and they'll waive your styling fee. That's stitchfix.com fantasypros let's go to buy seller hold here, Erickson. We got three running back trios. First one for you, Woody Marks coming off the bye week. Rico Dowdle coming off a couple of amazing weeks, and DeAndre Swift also coming off a great week. So buy, sell or hold Woody marks. Rico Dowdle, DeAndre Swift so talked about.
- [33:15]
B
Swift when we did the Monday night recap. He would be a hold for me. The Bears have a really good schedule coming up for their running backs, and he looked improved out of the bye week. I was, I was very impressed with what Ben Johnson was able to do with the run game. So Swift would be the hold for me. Marks Verstado, I think, is really interesting. I think Marks would probably be the guy that I would sell, and that's because I think that you can get a strong return for him. I don't think the Texas offensive line is still fixed and I don't think that they're going to magically just oh, all these wide open running lanes. Mark still has a Nick Chubb problem. Like Nick Chubb I don't think is going to be going away in any capacity. And we still don't really know what the ceiling case with Woody Marks is. We've seen the ceiling case for Rico Dowdle the last two weeks. What if Chuba Hubbard never. What if Chuba Hubbard gets re injured? I don't want to give that away. And it's funny they've been asking Canales about well is Rico Daddle the RB one in this offense? And he's always like we'll see right. So he's been non committal. Now the Panthers running it's interesting if you look at rushing success rate this season, the top two guys in the in the top four are Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. You know who's nowhere near the top of that? Anyone on the Houston Texans. So I get the idea of Woody Marks, he could take over this backfield but I just think the ceiling is in Carolina which is what we've seen the last couple weeks. So even though it looks murkier with Chuba Hubbard potentially coming back, I've seen the ceiling from Rico Dowdle. He's shown that he can be an RV1 and that's why I want to have my roster rest of season. Even though it may appear that Woody Marks has a easier path to the touches, being the lead back in the Texans offense isn't necessarily the greatest thing to have. I know he had that one good week earlier in the year but I mean against the Ravens he did nothing. So I'm going to buy Rico Dowdle and then I would probably sell Woody Marks.
- [35:07]
A
I would rather sell Dowdle to somebody who is thinking about him the way you are. And the main reason isn't even Chuba Hubbard. It's that these games came against Miami and Dallas and like he did what he did what a good player is supposed to do. He took advantage of as great and enticing a matchup as you can have. But he's not facing Miami and Dallas the rest of the season and that like I want to see how he does against a more reasonable run defense than those two teams. I, I'd rather buy Swift than Dowdle honestly and, and just hope that the Swift manager still views him as more of a floor, not a ceiling. And I, I would take that swing on Swift before I would on on Dowdle. Of those three Next trio here, Jalen Warren, Chase Brown, David Montgomery. Again, that's Warren Brown and Montgomery.
- [36:03]
B
A bunch of running backs I want to mostly sell, so I love these ones. Jalen Warren's going to be the hold for me. You just got to he's playing the Bengals this week. Like last week was the brutal matchup against the Cleveland Browns. So he underwhelmed and the committee was kind of annoying. Both Kenneth Gainwell and Caleb Johnson were actually getting involved and that was before the game was out of hand. But this week you got to hold Jalen Warren and then you can consider flipping him after he faces the Cincinnati Bengals. So he would be the hold for me. Chase Brown is probably the sell. I was not encouraged by what I saw from the run game and Chase Brown's usage in Joe Flacco's first start. That was actually, it's funny, I was wrong about everything when it came to Joe Flacco. Jamar Chase was fine. T. Higgins was fine for the most part. And then Chase Brown got like no targets, which is the one thing I felt like I was most confident that Joe Flacco would do was pepper his running back with targets. And that wasn't the case. In fact, like Samaji P. Ryan and Chase Brown had close to like a 6040 split. Samaji P1 got the first carry in the game and Brown's efficiency was a little bit better as a rusher, but I mean he's bottom five in the NFL and rushing success rate this season. The Bell cut usage has not been there the last two weeks for Chase Brown and he's not been ripping off these explosive plays. So I think that you have to look at selling Chase Brown because I think that so much of his appeal was just playing in a high powered offense. And even with Joe Flacco maybe being an upgrade over Jake Browning, still not the same nearly as high of a ceiling as it once was when it was Joe Burrow as the quarterback. So Chase Brown would be the sell for me and the Dave Montgomery would be the, I guess by default the buy. He still has a high ceiling in case there's a Jameer Gibbs type of injury. Now obviously when Montgomery and Gibbs are both healthy, like we've seen Monty's role dramatically reduce compared to last year except for that one game when he played at Cincinnati where he just had this like we talked about him as a sell high. I think yeah, Dave Montgomery was a sell high last week. So it feels weird. Kind of saying now he's a buy after calling him a cell last week. You're kind of putting me in this position because I have to pick a buy sell hold for this exercise. So not cool. Not cool, Worm. But. But based on who you've given me to deal with, I guess Dave Montgomery would be the buy. Unless you could buy Jalen Warren before he plays the Bengals. I would probably rather do that. But yeah, Dave Montgomery again, he'll also have better weeks. They're playing at home this week. He'll. He'll score touchdowns again. You know, playing on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs was a tougher spot for him. And to his credit, he did throw a touchdown, but just got called back. Dude. It was funny too. Last week I was thinking about when he threw that touchdown. I remember specifically on the show telling you, dude, Worm, how often is David Mongo gonna throw another touchdown? And then he almost does it the exact same week, the next week in back to back games. I'm like, is this part of the game plan?
- [38:53]
A
How many touchdowns now?
- [38:54]
B
Yeah. Are we gonna say props on Dave Montgomery under overpassing touchdowns?
- [38:58]
A
Yeah.
- [38:58]
B
Plus 3,000.
- [39:01]
A
Yeah, that would, that would not be enough for me to bet on it.
- [39:04]
B
No, definitely not. So what do you think of those running backs?
- [39:07]
A
In my breakdown, I, I don't like any of them. I just, I just wanted to see. See. Exactly. I had no. I have very little opinion on those running backs. I have very little interest in them. I think you did it. I think you, you pretty much picked what I would have picked.
- [39:27]
B
Cool.
- [39:29]
A
But I, I wouldn't have a ton of conviction in any of, any of them. This is an interesting trio. It's the last one that I have for you. They're all backups. It's Tyler Algier, Kendra Miller, Tajie Spears. Buy seller, hold Algier, Miller and Spears.
- [39:47]
B
I think I'm going to buy Tajie Spears because I think that he has a chance to carve out the most productive fantasy role in the Titans backfield just based on the pass catching negative game script. We just talked about Tony Pollard as a cell, so that would probably be the move I would make. Kendrick Miller is probably the man. Is he the cell here? I think the thing with him is Camara is not getting traded. So what is his actual ceiling if he is the one B and now a kind of three headed committee with the Saints? I mean, I like adding Kendrick Miller as a waiver wire guy, but if someone was going to aggressively trade for him off my roster, I would be more than happy to part ways. I think that the ceiling as we've just kind of seen with the Saints offense in general, just not a very high ceiling with Spencer Rattler as your quarterback. So even though Kendrick Miller has looked good at times this year, I don't think that I love him so much that I can't move him because I don't think he's ever going to fully take over this backfield because Camara is not going away and Taysom Hill is always going to be a red zone threat. So if all he's doing is getting a lot of carries in between the twenties which are like the least valuable for fantasy and someone else is more optimistic about him, I think I'd probably trade Kendrick Miller away and then I think Algier is the hold just this guy has. Where will we rank Algier if Bijan went down?
- [41:06]
A
He would be inside my top yes, 12. I wonder if 12 is the right number to say he'd be he'd be inside my top 12.
- [41:14]
B
I mean he is one of the most locked and loaded upside handcuffs because we saw his rookie year when he rushed for a thousand yards. And the only reason again to your credit when you mentioned him earlier in the show talking about man, what would he be like on another team? It's not his fault that the team drafted B John Robinson the next year. He was really good as a rookie and he's a free agent this year too. So maybe getting someone else to consider in dynasty formats, go scoop him because he could be on a new team next year. Now that may or not be a good thing because it could be like the whole Mike Davis profile.
- [41:46]
A
He's, he's not the type who's gonna like unseat a real star. But if he has an opportunity, like if he was, if Javante wasn't there and he was on Dallas, we'd be all over him right? Like that. Like he is good enough to take advantage of being the the only guy in the backfield on a good offense.
- [42:02]
B
It's not his fault that his team just happened to draft B John Robinson, right? Like most in most backfields, he would be the RB one on that team. So I just think that he's too valuable. He has too much upside to get rid of. Like he's a hold for me. And it's funny like we always have to rank him every week in the waiver wire rankings because he's never owned enough. But I mean when you're in a pinch. You can still throw him out there. I mean last night we saw him score a red zone touchdown so there are much worse flex options than a Tyler Ajir, Although I know that he's hard to press the button on because Bijan is the guy there. His upside is immense. If something were happened to Bijan and I think, yeah, in a pinch you can start him.
- [42:41]
A
I don't know why I'm struggling to find him in our rest of season rankings here.
- [42:47]
B
He's also a hard oh, here he is. Okay.
- [42:49]
A
Yeah, he's RB41. The rest of the season I had to skip past him. Yeah, I mean he has three touchdowns already this season as a backup. Like I I think that will continue rough like to get roughly a touchdown every other game.
- [43:01]
B
Three more touchdowns in Breeze hall does. Yeah.
- [43:04]
A
The point is for I like all three of these names. Honestly, I would like them all on my bench. Algeria Kendra Miller and Taji Spears. Spears is the one most likely to get a workload. I would say Kendrick Miller is the least likely to get a workload that I'm interested in, barring an injury of the three. But I I would like to have all three on my roster if I can.
- [43:25]
B
Yeah, no, I think that's a good way to put I think that Algier has the highest ceiling if there's an injury, Spears is the most likely to actually take over the backfield without an actual injury. And Miller has the least upside of the three, even if he were to be the RB1 on his offense.
- [43:40]
A
Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific Fantasy trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. Be sure to check out Part two with our receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts, at fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [44:44]
B
If you smoke or dip, I'm going to give you a few good reasons to try Zinn Zyn Nicotine Pouches. First, it's America's number one nicotine pouch brand. And Zyn offers a robust rewards program. There's a lot of options for nicotine satisfaction, but there's only one Zinn. So if you go to zyn.com find that's zyn.com find to find Zyn at a store near you, this product does contain nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.
- [45:11]
A
This is an I Heart podcast.