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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 7 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings & Tiers: Studs, Sleepers, and Must-Starts (Ep. 1776)
00:38:25
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- [00:00]
A
This is an I heart podcast.
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If you smoke or dip, I'm going to give you a few good reasons to try Zynn Zyn Nicotine Pouches. First, it's America's number one nicotine pouch brand and Zynn offers a robust rewards program. There's a lot of options for nicotine satisfaction, but there's only one Zyn. So if you go to zyn.com find that's z y n.com find to to find Zyn at a store near you. This product does contain nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Hello, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the fantasy football podcast. More importantly, this is the running back ranks for week seven. I'm Chris Welsh, that's Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson. We are here for you to be breaking down the top at least 36 running backs. We're going to be looking at the big board in groups of 12. So we're calling them RB1s, RB2s, RB3s. Some of the bigger questions, some of the bigger rank differences where you guys differ who is suffering. And boy, every single week I got to tell you, when we get to those running back threes, it does feel like people are throwing their hands up on just like names, like there's nothing startable. The difference between the end of wide receiver threes and the end of running back threes is astronomical. There's such a big difference on startable players in the 30s at wide receiver fits to running backs that you want to start Ken Gainwell, you want to start RJ Harvey. No, you don't, you don't want to do that.
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A
The running back three class is just a swamp right now. Welsh. It is, it's. And I, I am in a few leagues where I kind of went with the 0 RB approach and I'm throwing out guys like Zach Charbonnet and Woody Marks and like it just doesn't feel good.
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Erickson, we've seen, we see a lot of tons of trade questions all the time. You and I do the show on Discord where it's very trade centric. Just as a quick aside before we get to the ranks, everybody and their mother has a glut of wide receivers and is trying to shore up their running backs. Do you think because of how bad the depth at running back is, it has made these conversations just almost irrelevant where someone's like, hey guys, I've got. Everyone has AJ Brown who wants to trade him. Well, good luck. You know, maybe you can get Tony Pollard at this point. But do you think with how big wide receivers been and how bad running backs are, you think it's even palatable right now to be able to go and buy a running back in any league? Because I really just don't because it's like 20 strong. Then a bunch of questions and you're going to have to, I think, have to overpay in your wide receiver trades to get a running back.
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C
Yeah, I think that's a good way to approach it where the scarcity at the running back position is pushing up the value of the player. Even though 1v1 in a vacuum. No, I would rather much have this receiver than this running back. But that's not the game we're playing here. Like, you need a running back, so you have to give me a better wide receiver that's maybe in a completely different tier. So we'll talk about this player a little bit later. But the one guy I think is actually a buy, and I talked about it on the show with Worm, is actually Pacheco. Like, and he's the guy that nobody wants. But it's been trending in the right direction for him the last couple weeks as I'll get into when we talk about his rank for week seven. So. But yeah, you can get him because people don't like him.
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B
Well, I'm excited to have that conversation because, you know, I'm on the opposite end of that. No thanks. But hopefully it does trend in the right direction. All right, if you guys want to follow along with us, go to fantasypros.com rankings, that is. We have a snapshot, by the way. So we are looking at this moment in time what ECR looks like. It changes all the time as rankers update their ranks as they add their ranks. So just, you know, don't get up in arms. If like we say a guy is seven and they're nine now, like, who goes? And we know this is just our snapshot, but you can follow along all week. Fantasypros.com rankings let's get the big board up, starting with our RB1s. Number one overall this week is Jonathan Taylor. Bajan Robinson is two, Christian McCaffrey at three. Jameer Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, that's your top five. Devon Achan, Javante Williams, Saquon down at eight, Quinson Jutkins at nine, Rico Dowdle, Rico Suave at 10, Kyron Williams and Jakory Crosky. Merit at 12. Quinton Judkins, most disappointing game since he's been thrust into the starting role. He is ECR, RB9. You would think maybe he would be down a tiny bit more. The problem or the positive? Miami Dolphins. So Quintean Judkins is a complete bounce back. In my eyes he is RB9 on this list. Fitzy, not as much of a maybe agreement. Not that you're down on him or anything. You're essentially ecr. But Ericsson, Smash Erickson. Smash Judkins, you've got him at 4 this week. So talk to us about why the Dolphins are so bad at stopping the run and why Judkins is going to eat.
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C
We all saw what Kamani Vidal did last week against this Miami Dolphins defense. Then we all saw Rico Dowdle did against Miami Dolphins run. It's just terrible. It's one of the worst in the NFL, if not historically bad. And queen Sean Judkins, yes, he's coming off a bad game, but it was a terrible spot for him playing against a rested Steelers defense on the road. The Browns are favorites. I don't know if they're going to be favored ever again this season and they're.
- [05:13]
B
Or ever, ever in the history maybe.
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So this is a smash spot for him. From every single angle you look at the Browns game, they're playing a team that could fire their head coach after this game. Could Judkins be the reason why Mike McDaniel doesn't have a job after Sunday? It's very, very possible. So I'm all in on Judkins. That's why I met four. Honestly, I tried. I thought about maybe put him up at 3, but McCaffrey just has such a high floor with the receiving that I couldn't put him behind him. But. And obviously J.T. bijan as 1, 2. So yeah, Judkins, RB4 for me. And you can somehow buy him after a bad week. Do it.
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B
I'm a Judkins smash. You want. You want a little preview on the prop show this week? Erickson, I think you were. I don't know if it was off air on air, but you said, hey, Jerry, Judy time. It's Quinch on Judkins time for the prop show this week. So I'm in agreement. And by the way, hearts all break for us where we all knew the Dolphins were smashed for the running back. We just unfortunately thought it was Hasan Haskins and not Kamani Vidal. We got that answer pretty quick. But Judkins is in like a really phenomenal spot. Fitzy, again, you're not negative or anything like that. You're one spot lower than consensus. You got him as a top 10 running back this week. Maybe you just don't think he's going to have the Tippy Top production. He's a Brown. But what do you think about Judkins this week?
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Yeah, there's like a tug of war for me going on here Welsh with Judkins like on the one hand, obviously a great matchup against the Dolphins and maybe the Dolphins do wave the white flag in defense of Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins have not laid down in any game. They got crushed in that first game against the Colts and they've been competitive in every game since. They're just not. Things are not working out for them at the end of games. But like Quintean, Judkins is kind of starting to feel the pull of gravity in the Cleveland Browns offense. He averaged five and a half yards per carry in his first two games. He's at 4.1 yards per carry over his last three. He only has three targets and one reception in Dylan Gabriel's first two NFL starts. And I kind of worry about that like if there's not any sort of passing game production to help lift up Judkins, like he has to smash as a runner and, and maybe he just does and I'm overthinking this. And he has 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. Entirely possible. But I don't know. It's just this Browns offense is kind of sickly. He's not catching passes and recent production. Granted, yeah, Steelers tough matchup for sure. But I just wonder if in this offense he can take advantage of the matchup.
- [07:41]
B
Judkins smash for me. Rico Dowdle comes in at 10. Now I think we're presumably having Chuba back this week. I think that's the conversation a report Jeremy Fowler out there said. I mean this is kind of like a no brainer that both running backs would get more, would both get touches like duh, they're going to get both touches. I think the question is, is like will there'll be like a starter. This seems to come on the heels of like it doesn't really matter who starts. They're both going to go. So this kind of opens up this full conversation. Fitz, you've got him at 9. Erickson you've got him at 13. Difference between an RB1 and an RB2. I think Rico looks like the guy but regardless of being the guy, he's been so amazing because he's getting 30 plus touches. If that cuts down to 15, does he still deservedly, you know, should he be in these spots Especially versus the Jets. So Fitz, let's start with you. You're the high guy on him. Do you buy any of the reports? Do you think Rico is going to get 20 plus touches? Like how do you sparse him out as an RB1 this week? Because I think there'll be a ton of questions about am I safe to start Rico this week. Yeah.
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So right now I'm tentatively ranking Rico as if Hubbard isn't back.
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And.
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And it's going to be a real dilemma if he is back because how do you weigh this?
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The.
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The two fantastic games that Chuba Hubbard has had. He's making Bryce Long Young look better too in these two games. Like he's making Bryce Young's job easier. But at the same time, Chuba Hubbard played really well last season in sort of an uphill struggle in this Panthers offense and hadn't been quite as effective early this year. But I. He's got, I don't know, maybe some goodwill built up with this coaching staff. So Rico dowdle has had 60 touches the last two weeks, 53 carries, seven catches. Like, I'm not predicting 30 touches for Rico this week, but if he does have the backfield to himself, again, pretty good bet for around 20 touches. And the jets run defense has actually been pretty good. But the Panthers offensive line has been absolutely mashing in the running game. So I'd have to give it a little think as to how I'm going to rank these guys if Chuba Hubbard is back. I'm still probably going to have Rico ranked a little bit higher. Maybe projecting that they don't give Chuba full workload right away.
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B
What would be the vicinity? Like, you don't have to give an exact number, but like would he hover in the top 20? Would he be outside the top 20 or 25? How would you do it?
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Yeah, I mean I would probably have. Probably have Rico around like high end RB2, like 16, 17 and maybe a Hubbard like down around, I don't know, in like Tony Pollardsville, like RB28 or so.
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Okay. Our. Our injury expert Deepak Chona a couple weeks ago had said that based on this analysis, it looked like around a two could be a two to three week injury for Chuba. He had essentially said week five and six you'd have Chuba out. So this is what opens up the window. And Erickson, is Your rank at 13 relative to both of these guys being active or is 13 only with Rico being the starter?
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C
Yeah, that was just. With Rico being the starter, just kind of acknowledging that he's had the two best matchups you could ask for for running back the last two weeks. And look, the jets defense played well against Denver. Denver had been a team that was running the ball over a lot of different offense, a lot of other defenses and they couldn't really run the ball at all between J.K. dobbins and R.J. harvey. So I think the matchup is tougher. And it's also on the road, guys. The Carolina Panthers play like a completely different team when they're not playing at home like Bryce Young. I don't, I don't know what the deal is, but he goes from like being a competent quarterback at home to just being absolutely terrible on the road. So that concerns me about this just offense overall. And then if you are splitting the pie between Hubbard and Dowdle, look, if Trevor Chubb replace, I think it's going to be a 50, 50 split like and that's kind of what the reports are kind of suggesting that yes, Rico Delta has been absolutely fantastic the last two weeks. But to Fitz's point, Chuba played really well last year. This season they're both top four in rushing success rate. Last year they both rushed for a thousand yards. Like they're both good running backs. Like it's not, oh, Rico's great. Hubbard sucks. It's. That's not the case here. Like they're both really good running backs. Hubbard got hurt, Rico stepped in, had great matchups and smashed. So I think that yes, he has earned a right to see touches in this offense but if Hubbard had stayed healthy, he would have smashed too. And like there wouldn't really be this conversation or discussion. So I think you shouldn't be just pouring so much cold water on Chuba Hubbard because he is their starter. He is the guy that they paid to be their starting running back for the long term. Enrico is on a one year deal. They're both good running backs. The matchup's not as good. So I do think though that when you're comparing the Carolina Panthers to a lot of these other dual backfields, like you want to play a Panthers running back or Patriots running back, I think I'll probably, probably pay a Panthers running back. Do you want to play a Panthers running back or Texans running back? Give me the Panthers running back. Like, like I think you want to play those guys even with the touch and view ambiguity because I think that we should probably see both guys see double digit touches because the Panthers are more than happy to run the football and not necessarily have Bryce Young drop back to throw 40 times a game with only really one strong receiver. So I think they both have floors, but they'll probably end up being in that outside the top 20, 24 range for me.
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B
Okay, that's what I was gonna ask.
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I was just gonna say Bryce has thrown 30 or fewer passes in each of his last four games and the Panthers are three and one over that span. Like, I think it pays to hide Bryce Young as much as possible in that offense.
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All right, those are your running back ones. We're gonna get to your running back twos, but got a special offer for you guys where you can unlock a month a Betting Pros Premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use promo code FP the number 1 month so FP1 month get access to tools like the same game parlay tool, the Prop Bet Analyzer, and the Prize Picks Prop Bet Cheat sheet. Don't miss out. Try it for free for one month. Now. Again, that is promo code FP the number one month. It's available on iOS and Android. Go and do it today. Lets face it, after a night with drinks, I'm not going to bounce back the next day like I used to. I have to make a choice. I can either have a great night or a great next day. That is until I found Pre Alcohol. Now let me tell you, if there's a surefire way to wake up feeling fresh after drinks with friends, it's with Pre Alcohol zbiotics Pre Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration, that's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre Alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Fall is here, and that means it's time to enjoy cooler weather and some drinks out with friends. Whether you're enjoying a pine at a fall festival or a spooky cocktail at a Halloween party, don't forget to drink Pre alcohol before drinking. Go to zbiotics.com fantasypros to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use FantasyPros at checkout. Zebiotics is backed by a 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com fantasypros and use the code fantasypros at checkout for 15% off.
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RB2s. We're going to kick it off with number 13, Ashton Genty, Cam Scatterboo at 14, Breece Hall, Rashad White, J.K. dobbins, Jaylen Warren, DeAndre Swift, Travis Etienne at 20, Jordan Mason at 21, Kymani Vidal, Chase Brown and Alvin Camara. Let's jump back into the cam scatterboo space. ECR14 Fitzy, you're in agreement. Erickson, you're a little bit lower. Cam doesn't have, I guess on paper it's a great matchup. It is funny, the matchup star rating actually gives him a 4 out of 5 matchup. So Fitzy, you're the high guy or ECR guy for Cam Scatterboo, it's been amazing. How is he going to follow up the three touchdown performance? Is it going to be RB2 worthy?
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It will be. And high end RBT worthy. And I'm a little disappointed in Ericsson having him ranked significantly lower than I do. Clearly Erickson just doesn't like fun anymore. He got.
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Yeah. Why do you hate Cam Scatterboo?
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Erickson, he got married. He does things like winterize his sprinkler system for fun these days. Yeah, I mean, like, you know, Cam Scatterboo is going to get a lot of touches this week. He's averaging just under 20 carries a game over the last three weeks. He's averaging four catches a game over the last four weeks. The guy's freaking indestructible. And you know the Giants are going to lean on him against a tough Denver defense that absolutely wrecks opposing passing attacks. And I know Denver's good against the run too, but I think volume is the key for Scatter Boo. They're just going to feed this guy. And you know, he's, he's been really good lately.
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Fidzy's got him as a high RB2. Erickson, you've got him as a mid RB2. So as he says you hate him. So, Erickson, why do you think Cam Scatter was going to fail?
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I don't think he's gonna fail.
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C
I don't think he's gonna score three touchdowns again. And I think the matchup is much tougher and they're playing on the road. Where did we see the Giants not playing nearly as well in Jackson? Darts, three starts was on the road in New Orleans against a much weaker defense. Now he's gone the road against Denver. We talk about this on the Betting pro show where one of the most profitable ways to bet against rookie quarterbacks is their early starts on the road. So they're massive underdogs playing in Denver against a defense that gave up zero explosive plays for an entire game. Against the New York Jets, Breece hall got a ton of carries and did nothing with them because they were stuffing out the run at every single opportunity. So that's just my read on the play, just the matchup. Again, you're still starting because again, he has the really, really high volume touch floor. I will say too, like right now I have Dowdle ahead of him. Like I'm going to move Dowdle down if Trooper Hubbard ends up playing. So he, he will move up one or two spots. So closer to a mid RB2 for me. Maybe not as high as ECR at 14, but closer to ECR.
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B
You guys have these two guys flipped where Fitz, he's high on, you know, or ECR and scatter boo and Ericsson's a little bit lower. JK Dobbins, ECR 17. Fitz, Fitzy, you're a couple spots lower. But Erickson, you've got him at RB14. So the cam scatter boost spot goes to JK Dobbins. Dobbins has got the Giants this week. It is a very good matchup. He's a beast. RJ Harvey has not taken over a lot of the force there. So I actually am in agreement with you. I like Dobbins, I think, over Scatter Boo this week. But Erickson, let's. Let's hear your take on J.K. dobbins.
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Yeah, I think that last week just wasn't a great spot for the Denver Broncos run game. They did miss one of their starting offensive guards, so that does kind of concern me long term. If we see the Broncos running game struggle again. Okay, this is a really big difference when it comes to this offensive lineman missing. But the Giants have been a team that you can run all over unless you're the Philadelphia Eagles. So I like them in this spot here. The Broncos Playing at home, strong home favorites, you should be seeing a positive game script. J.K. dobbins has touchdown equity. So again, Scottaboo and Dobbins for me is just, I'm just looking at the matchup, right? And according to Vegas, the Denver Broncos should win by touchdown at home. What does that mean? Okay, the running back should eat for Denver here. Dobbins should score one, if not two touchdowns against a really bad run defense. So that's why I like Dobbins.
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I'm actually curious because you are a little bit lower. I feel like he would be the type of guy you would really like. Like, are you worried about the offense that you saw in London? There's a hangover from coming back. Like, where is Dobbins going a little bit lower for you versus what is a really good matchup?
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Maybe a small part of it is the London hangover, but yeah, it is a great matchup. I mean, unless you have a garbage running back like Saquon Barkley, you can run all over the giants. Giants are 31st in DVOA against the run. Um, I guess part of it is that Dobbins hasn't been really involved as a pass catcher. Just five receptions in five games. We haven't seen a usage spike for RJ Harvey, but like, would it shock anyone if there was suddenly a week where RJ Harvey had 50% of the offensive snaps? So a little trepidation there. Just, I wish we were getting the full, the full monty from Dobbins as far as like running and contributing as a pass catcher. And it's just strange. Like this seems like the year where Sean Payton's running backs are less involved in the passing game than they've ever been in any of his offenses ever. And I just, it seems like it's going to continue to work that way now, especially with Evan Ingram healthy again for the Broncos. So it's kind of one dimensional usage for him and maybe he smashes against this bad run defense, but I don't know. They're just some things that have me kind of cautious about the Dobbins ranking.
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Former Charger to Bronco to former Bronco to Charger. Shout out to me for not screwing this up. Kamani Vidal, ECR, RB22 Like I mentioned before, we really thought it was going to be Haskins. It kind of set. There's just so many pieces to it. It was like Vidal is the practice squad guy and you know Haskins is going to get the first kind of shot and run. Nope, Vidal just was the dude he Looks super efficient. Great attempt. Percentage was up. I mean, he looks like he is the guy in an offense that wants to run the ball. ECR22. You guys are a little bit flipped though. Erickson, you got him as an RB2 Fitz, he's got him outside. It's not anything crazy. But Erickson, let's start with you. You are a high guy on him. I am in more of your camp of this. I think Vidal is like a top 20 guy. I got 20 plus top touches. I don't see why that's going to change. He's going up against an Indianapolis Colts defense which you know, if you're going to be able to successfully pass some, it's going to create more run opportunities. They used him a lot. I like Vidal this week and I will suggest him after being wrong with Haskins. What say you, Erickson?
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Yeah, I like him a lot this week too. I think that he's a strong, strong start now. Not going to put nearly up the type of production I think that he did last week against the Miami Dolphins.
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B
Sure.
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C
Again, I think the Colts are an average matchup. But the production aside, you're looking at the usage, right? Let's say he had had a like a okay game against the Miami Dolphins. The usage is what we'd be talking about where he played 70% of the snaps. Like he out snapped Haskins 43 to 20 out carried him 18 to 6, 124 rushing yards, three catches for 14 yards and a touchdown. He was used in all facets of the game. He was used as a pass catcher. He was used in the red zone, which has actually been used two weeks in a row in the red zone. So even last week in the game where Hampton got hurt, Vidal had three red zone touches and that carried over into this game as well when he had, I think eight red zone touches. So they're using him a ton in the areas of the field that we care about the most. Will he be as productive? I don't think so because it's not nearly as great of a matchup. But you play for the Chargers offense. The one thing that the Chargers can feel good about with their offensive line is the interior like that is still somewhat intact. It's the tackles that have kind of been the issues with most of the injuries. So I think they do need to establish some type of run game to kind of help keep the pressure off of Justin Herbert, keep him upright against the Colts defense that can get off the pass rusher a little bit. So yeah, I think that He's a really solid start from here on out till we see Hampton come back.
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B
Boy, we're just waiting to for like it'll be 20 touches for Haskins this week and then we're just going to be like, never start a Chargers running back because we don't know. But Fitz, what do you think? RB25, you've got him just outside of like the startable RB2 range. Are you not sold on the offensive line? Are you not sold on their running situation? What do you think about Vidal?
- [24:08]
A
I am glad Erickson mentioned the offensive line because, like, if Joe Alt comes back this week, I will probably move up Vidal like three spots and be more in line with ecr, but they're just still really banged up there and no Alt makes a big difference. And Ericsson mentioned the difference in the matchup going from this cakewalk matchup against the Miami Dolphins to a matchup against more of a neutral matchup. Like, a lot of credit to Lou Anarumo for the job he's done with the Colts defense, which has been pretty, you know, pretty credible this year. So, man, I do like Vidal a lot. Like, I don't want to bag on this guy. The all time leading rusher for Troy University and a guy who's like, his contact balance is pretty awesome. Like, he's not quite Devon Achan or Ashton Genty in that department, but he's, he's good. This guy bounces off tackles. So I like Vidal, but tougher matchup and still a banged up offensive line. If Alts back though, I'm going to move up Vidal in my rankings.
- [25:11]
C
Yeah, this could be the the first time Videl actually faces an NFL run defense. He didn't face one last week.
- [25:18]
B
Dominate your fantasy football league with Fantasy Pros Premium now available free for six months when you deposit and place your first wager on one of our partner sports books. The easiest way to get full access to our top fantasy tools all season long. And just because it's week seven does not make it too late. Go to fantasypros.com premium to get started today. All right, RB3s, that is 25 through 36. We start with Ken Walker at 25. David Montgomery, Ramandre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, Treveon Henderson, Isaiah Pacheco. That's your top 30. We got Bam Knight at 31, Zach Charbonnet, Woody Marks, Kenny Gainwell, Nick Chubb and RJ Harvey. You can see as it gets grosser down the list. Tony Pollard, ECR 28. Fitzy, you've got him at 28. Erickson, you've got him at 31. They fire the coach. Tajie Spears is in town. I am of the like that. I think that Spears is going to be used more and more in this offense and I don't think Pollard is going to be phased out or anything like that. But you know, Spears had some moments here. What do you think, Fitzy? You've got him at 28. It's kind of a flex option. He doesn't feel good to me. Where are you at on Tony Pollard?
- [26:27]
A
Doesn't feel good to me either, quite honestly. Tajie Spears out snapped Pollard last week and just looked better. It's possible I'm underreacting to that. And the Patriots run defense is pretty good. I do still think Pollard is a pretty good bet for at least 12 touches, which is the number of touches he had last week against the Raiders. But it's possible we see a major backfield shift here and if I accordingly shift in my rankings, it's going to be downward for Pollard and upward for Spears.
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B
Upward or downward for you? Erickson on Tony Pollard. Is it Taje Spears citizen coming?
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C
Yeah, I think it is. When you're just reading how these guys have been used traditionally, Spears is the pass catching back. So when they're playing in a negative game script, he's playing more snaps than Tony Pollard is. And Pollard, the only way he pays off is if he scores. Right. I still think that he would probably have the first crack at a red zone opportunity. So that's kind of the one thing that works in his favor because everything else about this matchup just is terrible. I think that the Patriots are really good run defense. They've really stopped the run this season. And Spears is more effective as a rusher. Last week, 6.2 yards per carry, 60% success rate. Depovich 26, 20% success rate. We also don't know what the backfield shift is going to look like under a new play caller. Like it's all brand new. They just fired their head coach. So I do think that maybe they get a little bit of juice just from that dead cat bounce type of angle where, oh yeah, they fired Callahan. Like we're going to come out of the gates and maybe Pollard scores. But besides that, I mean you look at his game logs when he doesn't score. It's RB 30, RB 29, RB 32, RB 33. So like that's probably what you're gonna get from him at the floor. But that's not even considering a lot of Those games came without Speeders playing. So I. I think that he is a low floor, low ceiling. Just someone I don't want to play this week. Like, quite frankly, someone I would rather play somebody else. I get that he has, like, a certain projection and we have to rank him in a certain way, but, I mean, we're talking about upside. Give me R.J. harvey. I. I mean, he can at least rip off a big running. It's a terrible Giants defense. Is that gonna happen for Tony Pollard? Like, probably not.
- [28:33]
B
So.
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C
So you have spears away from him.
- [28:35]
A
You have spears ranked higher, Erickson?
- [28:38]
C
I don't, but I should. So I'm going to make that move.
- [28:42]
A
It's kind of how I feel, too.
- [28:44]
B
Make the move, boys. Make the move. Bam Knight. I have seen no less than 20,000 questions of Michael Carter Bam night this week. The whole mess of, like, it's going to be Bam. It's going to be Bam starting and then Carter starting. Like, it just has everybody kind of thrown off. Bam Knight is the one that's ranked higher, ECR 31. Neither one of you guys are super optimistic about it. Erickson, we'll start with you. You're the least optimistic about bam at 40. But what say. What say you with the Michael Carter element to it? So just wrap that in. Bam Knight and Michael Carter.
- [29:16]
C
I prefer Michael Carter much more this week than Bam Knight. Michael Carter had more touches last week. He also has five targets in both games played the last two weeks, plus playing the Green Bay Packers. Are we expecting the Cardinals to play with the lead in this game? I don't think that. I think it's more of a negative game script. Now, I could be wrong with projecting game script, but I'm just going with what I think is the most likely outcome. And that means you're going to see more Michael Carter on the field. So I'm not trying to be swayed by. Yeah, I know Bam Knight played 51% of the snaps that led the Arizona backfield, but Michael Carter played 44. And if Amari J. Mercado is out, then Michael Carter is taking all of the pass down work. So Bam Knight. Is he going to score three touchdowns in three weeks? Maybe he will, and that's what pays. But he is touchdown or bust. And against a Greenbackers Green Bay packers defense, I'm going to bet against him scoring, which is why I just. I have him completely buried this week. I have no confidence in playing Bam Night. I think that if you've been starting the last couple of weeks like you're really happy that's worked out, but I think that it's going to end in a very, very bad way. I think it's probably going to happen this week. Yeah.
- [30:19]
B
See, that's why it's not even about Bam versus Carter as much as like neither like I don't want to start either because the reason I like Knight, the reason I like Knight over Carter is because of the touchdown equity. Because all the things of like a Carter get more opportunities and it's like great, you know, 14 carries for 30 yards. I don't care about that. I would take the donut versus the touchdown equity, but neither one of these guys versus this defense who I really want to play. So I'm a little surprised Bam is ranked maybe in the high level that he's at. Fitzy, what do you think? Do you think this is too high of an ECR rank on Bam Knight?
- [30:51]
A
I do and I should maybe be a little closer to where Erickson is. Ericsson summed it up really well. Like if there is a negative game script and I know Bam Knight played more snaps than Carter last week, but it was what, like a 5 snap edge? It was pretty close to even. And you know, I don't like making sweeping assumptions about game script. But if a game is close to a touchdown in the spread, like you have to figure that it's probably going to be more likely than not a negative game script for the Cardinals. And I do think Carter is the guy you want in a negative game script. Bam Knight is probably the guy you want in a positive game script. And against the packers is six and a half point dogs. I, I think it's probably going to be a negative game script.
- [31:35]
B
This was teased at the top of the show. So here we go. Apparently Isaiah Pacheco season is upon us. He has ECR. RB30. Fitz, you're just about there at 29. Erickson, almost for statement, you should just put him two spots higher just to make him an RB24 for so an RB2. You got him at 26 and you said that you think this is the time to buy in, but is this the time to start him versus the Raiders this week? Erickson, let's start with you.
- [32:05]
C
Yeah, I think that you can. And all I got to do is move ahead of Alvin Camara and Ken Walker who is the second running back on his team. So maybe I can make that switch to the top 24 pretty easily. So the thing with the checkout that I like a lot is I think they're really trying to get him going. They talked about that on the broadcast after he had one of his first carries in the first quarter, they said, yeah, they're really trying to get Pacheco a, a larger workload in this offense. And we saw that in the game. He played 77% of the snaps. That was a season high. He also had a season high in carries at 12 and that was after he hit season high numbers in week five. So it's trending in the right direction. I think that he's looked the part against the lines. Four rushes at 15 plus yards. He had four of those types of rushes combined leading up to week six. So he's getting a workload bump. Check. He's looking more explosive. Okay, check. Red zone usage. Four red zone carries to Hunts. One against the Lions. Check. So he's starting to check off all the boxes. We're looking for of a running back. Hey, they're ten and a half point favorites at home. He has touchdown. We're talking about Bam Knight's touchdown equity. What about Isaiah Pacheco's touchdown equity? I think that's here especially because he's going to use more in the red zone instead of Kareem Hunt. And the matchup against the Raiders, so on paper doesn't look great. The Raiders have actually been pretty decent against running backs overall the season. But part of the reason is they like to stack the box. The Raiders actually have one of the highest stack box rates this season. But we've talked about this two guys the last couple weeks, Achan and Crosby. Merit. Yes, teams will stack the box to try to suffocate running backs, but what happens is sometimes they over pursue and then it creates a lot of big running plays. Pacheco against stack boxes this season. 7.5 yards per carry, third highest in the NFL, fourth in success rate. He's ripping off the big run this week. Pacheco.
- [33:49]
B
Isaiah Pacheco over under 14.5. No, I'm not. 14.5 rush attempts over. Under Erickson.
- [33:58]
C
14.5.
- [34:00]
B
I'm gonna say yeah. So 15 rush attempts. No, it's not. But he might be the one out in public.
- [34:05]
C
It probably won't be that high, but I'll take the hour. Sure.
- [34:08]
B
You can take the other. Okay. He has not had 15 rush attempts since the first two weeks of last season. In the return this season he has not had it.
- [34:17]
C
You mean when Rashi Rice was on the team? You know who's back this week? Rush. Rice.
- [34:21]
B
Oh, because Rashee Rice will be back. So that's going to make. They're going to be like now we need to use more Pacheco because now we need more weapons. Fitzy, what do you think about Pacheco? I I've been like a Debbie Downer on him the whole season just because of the I think the backfield is muddy. I'm not sold that it's going to change, but there's a compelling case that this might be the start of it. What do you think?
- [34:40]
A
I'm kind of with you. I don't have a real sense of certainty about this and I would love to believe because I do have Isaiah Pachec on a few leagues and I would love to think that the fact that he out snapped Kareem Hunt 4919 last week means that the Chiefs really are in the process of kicking Kareem Hunt to the curb. But I just don't know if the usage shift is sticky or not. Plus Kareem Hunt has been the primary goal line back this season. Like I know Pacheco got a little bit of usage there last week. It's just and despite the 49 snaps like Isaiah, Pacheco only had 13 touches last week in a game where it was a positive game script throughout for the Chiefs holding a lead against the Lions pretty much that whole game. Smith is in the mix too and maybe the Chiefs just keep throwing like crazy now that Rasheed Rice is back. I mentioned in the show we did with wide receivers their passing rate over expected against the Lions plus 13 and a half percent last week. So it just seems like the Chiefs are back to being this aerial assault. I don't know whether Pacheco is going to be like a plus fantasy asset.
- [35:56]
B
For people, but legit Erickson, for our prop show on betting pros this week, you know that number is going to be it cannot be higher than 11.5 rush attempts. Like it should be 10 point last week. So I know that's why like yeah, but he's at it once so like you maximum 12.5. It's probably 11.5. That should already be one of your Lock it in, lock it in, lock it in, lock it in. Come and listen to that show. All right, let's finish Overtaker. Yeah, the overtaker. That's 100% right. Let's finish off with another running back debate because as we've, you know, kind of hit it nauseam, it gets pretty gross down in this territory. But how about the Texans running back situation? And what is interesting about this is ECR is really close. So it's kind of a hand up situation. Nick Chubb is 35 versus Woody Marks at 33. You two are split on who you like more. Fitzs in favor of Nick Chubb. Erickson, you're in favor of Woody Marks. Fitzy, let's let you have the table here for Nick Chubb.
- [36:51]
A
Yeah, I don't feel strongly about this, but the last time we saw the Texans before their Week 6 by Nick Chubb was out touching Woody Marks 117 like Chubb isn't going to disappear. I think everyone thought we were getting the Woody Marks backfield takeover, but I think it's going to be 5050 now. Maybe marks is the right play this week because the Seahawks have allowed I think the second most receiving yards to running backs. So maybe things should skew a little bit towards Woody Marks depending on the game script. But again I don't want to make sweeping assumptions about game script. I still think Nick Chubb is probably the better bet for a touchdown between these two backs. So I do think it's a really close call here. I still give a very, very slight edge to Nick Chubb.
- [37:38]
B
Erickson, is Woody Marks the right call for this week?
- [37:41]
C
I am leaning in that direction and that's just because I saw the Seahawks defense pressure Trevor Lawrence on 50% of his drop backs last week. If that's going to be the case then CJ Stroud is going to have to find a check down option and I think that that's more likely to be Woody Marks than Nick Chubb. I think this is a brutal matchup for both guys on the ground. This Texans offensive line took steps against the Ravens JB squad. Will that work against the Seahawks on the road? Probably not. So I think it's dumb off season for Witty Marks and that's why I have him ranked running back 34 this week.
- [38:14]
A
So very, very confident.
- [38:16]
B
So yeah, very exciting for both of those guys. Lots of questions at the running backs and if you've got more, remember we got that weekly start and sit live stream on our YouTube channel, YouTube.com fantasypros if you're watching on YouTube you're like duh, we know we're here. But if you're on the podcast, make sure to go subscribe click on notifications. Thursday, 3pm Eastern is when we will be live for that every Thursday. So come and bring your running back questions or any other fantasy questions. We got you covered. That's going to do it for our Week 7 running back ranks. I'm Welsh, that's Fitz Erickson. We're out.
- [38:48]
C
Peace.
- [38:48]
A
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
- [38:52]
C
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- [38:55]
A
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- [38:58]
C
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- [39:01]
A
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- [39:04]
C
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- [39:06]
A
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- [39:31]
D
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- [40:05]
A
This is an I Heart podcast.