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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 8 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1788)
00:47:06
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- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
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- [00:04]
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- [00:32]
Ryan Warmley
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson. We are talking buys and sells. This is our running backs focused episode. We'll be talking a little bit about Monday Night Football, the last double header of the season at the top of the show. Then we'll get into some running backs to buy, running backs to sell, and then some buy, sell and hold trade trios. And then we're gonna have part two. You can check that out on YouTube or wherever you get your audio podcast where we're gonna do wide receivers and a little bit of quarterbacks and tight ends as well. Like I said, this is the running backs episode. But before we get into the running backs, Erickson, we had our last Monday night double header of the season finally last night and it was a true double header where they are not going on at the same time but rather back to back. So you on the east coast got one Last Taste of 10pm kickoff NFL football. How did you enjoy the games last night?
- [01:26]
Andrew Erickson
Well, the Seahawks Texans was a great rewatch this morning on Tuesday because I did not stay out to watch the entire Seahawks Texans fiasco. That Texans offense, that's what it is. It's a fiasco. Not, not something that you're really impressed with. Nico Collins obviously missing with the concussion towards the end of the game. Just I really wanted to pump the brakes on the Texans offense after they destroyed the Ravens because it was the.
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Worm
Ravens backup team and the Tennessee Titans.
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Andrew Erickson
Have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. So as I was previewing this game, I'm looking at some Stroud's efficiency numbers. It's like season high or career high and passer rating, something ridiculous. I'm like, how is this possible?
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Worm
It's like, oh wait, it's because he faced the Ravens and the Tech in.
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Andrew Erickson
The Titans the last two games. They face a real defense in Seattle. Tough matchup and obviously a tough Run out for that entire Texans offense?
- [02:16]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, not. Not just a more real defense but one of the best defenses in football. Like it it the exact opposite end of the spectrum of the beat up Ravens and the Titans defense and it pretty much looked like you might have expected Dalton Schultz had a big game. I mean some of that came after Nico Collins, you know, left the game with a concussion. So we'll want to keep an eye on Nico because obviously that concussions. I, I know it didn't happen for Marvin Harrison Jr. But those tend to go beyond that initial week, especially on a short week for Nico. So definitely keep an eye on that. Probably not good. Is there like a top choice for you as a Jalen Noel or or anybody else in this offense that you are most interested in? If Nico's going to miss time, probably.
- [02:56]
Andrew Erickson
Jalen Noel I think would be the guy for me. He popped the most in this game and that was even before Nico Collins got injured. He had season highs across the board in terms of routes, targets, receiving yards, receptions. Jaden Higgins kind of just hasn't really stepped up into a newer role. They're still running Xavier Hutchinson on a lot of the wide receiver snaps. Honestly the guy I'm most confident about is probably Dalton Schultz. And you listed off he had 10 targets, nine for 98. Who is he playing in week eight? The 49ers. Who just destroyed the 49ers. Kyle Pitts. Why? Because they don't have Fred Warner anymore. So this is now a matchup to target for tight ends. Dalton Schultz is not a game breaker by any means but he can go out command targets when there's a depleted wide receiver room. So I do like Schultz as a streaming tight end this week. He'll probably ranked in my top 15 this week assuming that Nico Collins misses this game. But that's kind of my big ways takeaways from the past catchers. The Texans can't run the ball. I mean Woody Marks, you look at the snap share, you're like yes.
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Worm
You look at the carries instead of.
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Andrew Erickson
Nick Chubb double this carries like yes.
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Worm
Just don't look at the rushing yards which he's got 15 rushing yards on 10 carries.
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Andrew Erickson
That's absolutely terrible. Woody Marks, the season is second and.
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Ryan Warmley
He had a long of 11 which means the other nine carries went for four yards.
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Worm
Yeah, it was.
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Andrew Erickson
I mean the Texas offensive line is just bad like point blank and anyone is going to struggle running the ball. Looking at this season in totality, Woody Marks has the he ranked second to last. No, actually no ranks Dead last in rushing success rate at 24. But again, it's not all on him because Chubb is also in the bottom 10 in that category. So he's salvaging his fantasy value because he's seeing high value opportunities. He's getting the red zone usage which we love. He caught a touchdown in this game and he's it's seeing passes out of the backfield because Strad's got to get the ball out quick because there's pass rushers in his face constantly because the offensive line is giving up a ton of pressure. So those are the positive 40 marks, but I don't think that the rushing is going to improve necessarily. The 49ers did a great job of stuffing out the Falcons run game, which is one of the best in the NFL last week. So I'm expecting the Texans run game to probably struggle here again in week eight.
- [05:06]
Ryan Warmley
I think in general, not talking about next week's matchup specifically, but in general, like I, I do think you should your expectations for the Texans offense should be something in between what they were against the beat up Ravens and what they were against in Seattle. Against the Seahawks defense, it will probably be something in the middle but the offensive line is not getting any better and obviously the pass catching situation is is not getting better. If Nico does miss time on the other side of this one, like obviously JSN did his usual thing. He's amazing. Really. The backfield is the only kind of thing I wanted to highlight. Just like Zach Charbonnet again on Kenneth Walker's birthday. Zach Charbonnet getting both, you know, the touchdown opportunities at the goal line scores on both of them. I, I didn't actually go back and double check this. I have no reason to believe the tweet wasn't correct. But I did see a tweet last night that said Charbonnet has outscored Walker in five of the six games that they've both played this season. Are you like. Obviously so much of that is driven by the touchdown, you know, opportunities and the goal line usage. Would you like give any weight to considering like I don't want to say ranking Charbonnet ahead of Walker, but like putting them closer together in rest of season rankings. If Charbonnet is going to continue to be the guy who gets the most valuable thing you can get, which is these, these scoring opportunities?
- [06:19]
Andrew Erickson
No, I get the idea to do that, but I know Walker is the better running back. Right? So I get.
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Ryan Warmley
But does Seattle know that?
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Andrew Erickson
Well, they gave him more carries in.
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Worm
This game he had 17 carries and.
- [06:32]
Andrew Erickson
He was more or he actually wasn't more efficient in this particular game, but. And of course on one of his big runs, it gets called back on an offensive holding penalty. So that's super frustrating. It just is what it is. It's just a 50, 50 committee. Charbonnet and is the favorite guy in the red zone. If you feel confident projecting the games where he's going to score a touchdown, which I mean, it's more likely than not. I mean, Seattle's been a good team this year. They're playing with positive game scripts who they have upcoming next week. I mean, they're on a buy in week eight. So then they have the commanders. That's a bad defense. Cardinals. That's not, you know, an elite defense by any means. So I get the idea of doing that, but you're gonna put Charbonne ahead of Walker and then it's the one week where he doesn't score and Walker ends up being the more efficient running back and then you're pulling your hair out. So I do agree that they probably should be ranked closer in rest of season rankings. If you're gonna make me pick one, I'm still going to go with Walker because I think that he's the better, more explosive, more efficient running back. And usually you, you want to bet on those guys rest of season versus the running backs who are more dependent on the touchdown equity. To your point though, it, it is a really, really frustrating situation for fantasy manager because you don't feel like you can start Charbonnet even though he keeps scoring touchdowns because that's harder to bank on versus like what I just pointed out. Walker had 17 carries in this game and they were talking about getting him more volume. So they're on a bye week. So you get a break from the.
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Worm
Seahawks backfield for at least one week. And then we'll reassess it when we.
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Andrew Erickson
Get back to week nine when they go to Washington.
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Ryan Warmley
The first game of the doubleheader was Tampa Bay at Detroit Jameer. Gibbs was insanely good. No surprise. He's always great, but just shout him out. That 78 yard touchdown like I know it. The numbers said it was, I think, the third fastest time a ball carrier has reached this year. It was the fastest I can remember a player looking like. I just eye test, which obviously cannot distinguish between like 22 miles an hour versus 21.8 miles per hour. But eye test, I was like, that's the fastest I've ever seen an NFL player. Like, it just look he just was completely burst out of a cannon. It was incredible. So gives us like he was.
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Andrew Erickson
He was almost looking like he was doing a spin dash some might say from a character. He likes to portray himself as Sonic the Hedgehog. So yeah, that man fast.
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Ryan Warmley
I have no Rolodex for Sonic references by the way. I never saw the movies. I never like really played on. I. I played video games, just not really.
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Andrew Erickson
Man, that's a. Those are classics.
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Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I just, I just kind of missed it. For. For whatever reason I'm. I'm sure everybody's gonna love here. Yet another reference that is going over my head. But yeah, Gibbs looked amazing. Amon Ross, St. Brown, he had 10 targets. Nobody else on the team had more than three. And honestly like watching the game, you could have convinced me he had like 15. Like I just felt like every time they dropped back to pass, St. Brown was just wide open and they sometimes hit the play, sometimes didn't. But his 6 for 86 and a touchdown like almost feels like less than what it should have been. It felt like he was really, you know, kind of in control in that game. But so yeah, there's not really much to stand out. I don't think on. On the, the lion side it was the stars kind of being stars. I mean laporta just had three catches for 15 yards. But you know, everybody else kind of did what we expected them to do. On the buck side like Rashad White did not do anything obviously with this opportunity with Bucky Irving still out, he had just 10 carries for 38 yards. He did a four catches but then went for a total of six yards. So he was doing nothing. Mike Evans, the, the kind of, the, the big headline takeaway, just him, you know, breaking his collarbone and it looked really bad. He was on the turf for a while. It was unclear at first like if it was something to do with the leg. Cause he's had hamstring injuries. And then they said it was a concussion and kind of that like collarbone, shoulder area. Egbuka I, you know, partially as a result of that I guess because he did get more of his targets later in the game. Led the team with 12 targets despite people thinking he wasn't going to play the entire week with his own hamstring issue. He only caught four of those passes for 58 yards. Tess Johnson had also four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Not a ton of stars standing out in this game on either side besides Gibbs and St. Brown. It was a lot of kind of lower scoring fantasy days from, you know, even the quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff, both under 250 yards, just one touchdown each. So I kind of threw a lot of numbers at you Erickson on the Tampa Bay side, I guess really the big thing is what is this going to look like with Mike Evans out for a while and you know, Kate Otten, this team in receiving. Is he somebody that you think is going to step up long term with no Evans?
- [10:51]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. This is what the Kate on special, right tweeted out last week. Picture of Rob Gronkowski in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. This is Kate Otten when all the other Buccaneers receivers are hurt. He just turns into Gronk now being a little bit tongue in cheek here.
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Worm
He's not obviously Rob Gronkowski and he.
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Andrew Erickson
Made a few mistakes in this game, but he is trusted by Baker Mayfield. He's an underneath target for Baker Mayfield so he can be streamed. If you need a tight end this week, it is national Tight End Day this upcoming week, so keep that in mind. So again against the Saints, I think that that's a fine matchup even on the road. So Kate Otten is definitely on the streaming radar again. He also had a two point conversion attempt that failed but Baker Mayfield will frequently look for him in the end zone. I would say Buka just, I don't know, I always, I had this spidey sense all year when it seemed like Ibuka was never actually gonna play on the field with God when in Mike Evans at the same time. And that seems like it's probably going to be like the most likely outcome now. So I don't think that we ever talked about Ebuka as a hey, this guy's a screaming cell. Just because how fantastic it looked. Even though we knew some of the receivers were coming back, I felt like we were just man, like he's probably just too good. Just, just hold them like, like. And I understand, I understood the theory behind well these guys are gonna come back, they're gonna eat to his target share, he's performing so well. Etc, etc. But then like. But he's also just really good and he's a rookie and. And now like it's really played out in his favor right where the other guys are getting banged up. They are a little bit older receivers. Obviously you can never project exactly how injuries will play out. But so far it's been a basically sun run for Ibuka when it comes to being the number one target. And I expect him to be a top 12 fantasy wide receiver rest of season. I would say Mike Evans still has a chance of coming back, so I don't know if that He's a downright drop collarbone injuries can take anywhere between six to eight weeks, so it's possible he could come back for the fantasy playoffs. So I would say if you have an IR spot, keep him on, keep him there. If you have a winning record, keep him on your roster or your bench. But if you obviously need wins now, you got to make moves now, then he would be one of the guys that you can probably cut just because you can't wait.
- [12:50]
Ryan Warmley
Let's get into the week eight running backs to buy and sell As I always remind everybody, these are not necessarily buy lows and sell highs. They can be but they are not necessarily that. They are just buys and sells sometimes they are buy highs sometimes and sell lows. Kind of on the other end of that spectrum. Erickson, where do you want to start off here for the first running back to buy?
- [13:09]
Andrew Erickson
Always be buying. Bill Crosby Merritt running back for the Washington Commanders Not a great game against the Dallas Cowboys with SmashBot just 13 carries for 33 yards. However, I still think that he is the main guy in the Commander's backfield. Still played 49% of the snaps ahead of Jeremy Nichols and Chris Rodriguez. Now there's always a risk where McNichols takes over a little bit more on third downs and pass catching situations situations. But I just think that right now the state of the Washington offense. JCM is their biggest playmaker, right? We don't know the status of Diva. We still don't know when Terry's coming back. Jane Daniels is banged up so I think they're gonna have no choice but to turn to Jacobi Crosky Merit and I like the schedule overall rest of season. It's top 10 rest of season schedule for running backs. This match this week isn't again ideal against the Kansas City Chiefs, but they did. The Chiefs did just put one of their defensive tackles on injured reserve so that maybe opened up some opportunities. I also just think that the Commanders are going to rely more on the run. We saw this in two games with Marcus Mariota. They were negative 3% pass rate over expectation and in both those games Krusky Mary didn't necessarily light up the box score, but he was really efficient in both those games having a 50% higher or rushing success rate in both those contests. It was also before that kind of unlocked him as like the guy he was still in a timeshare in those Marcus Mariota starts earlier in the year I think that it's clear that he is their favorite running back, the guy that they need to lean on. So I like buying him on the dip, especially because it's coming off a bad game. Daniels is banged up and we talked about buying him really low a couple of weeks ago. That ended up being a good proposition to make. And I think right now his stock is pretty, pretty low. So buy low for me.
- [14:42]
Ryan Warmley
I know that the usage wasn't the same early in the season as it has been since. He's kind of taken over the backfield more. But it is like, you know, when you look at his game log, if you take away that Chargers game where he, you know, finishes a top five running back in the week, obviously 111, 111 yards and two touchdowns. The big breakout. If you take that away, then since week two he does not have double digit fantasy points in half PPR scoring. He's been, he's been RB 64, 26, 43, 5, 36 and 44. So it hasn't even been an RB2 in any game since week one. Accepting that one blow up against the Chargers. So it's not just coming off of one bad game. It like it has been just kind of quite missing now again, he's taken over more of the backfield since those early season stuff, but it hasn't really translated into this great fantasy performer outside of that one. Week five.
- [15:37]
Andrew Erickson
I mean, just bet on running backs that you think are good, right? Again, it's a, it's a buy low for reason, Worm. Like that's what we're trying to do here.
- [15:43]
Ryan Warmley
So I'm just, I'm just painting the opposite. When I agree with you, people are like, oh, Worm disagrees with everybody all the time. Now here I am giving you a little pushback and you're like, we'll just buy a good play. I mean I can't win here.
- [15:52]
Worm
No, no, no, no, no, no.
- [15:54]
Andrew Erickson
I appreciate the pushback. That's obviously what we need for great content. I guess for me it's just. You want to buy running backs that I think are good, right? I just think that he's a good running back and that was the theory behind the play before the Chargers game, right? When we were talking about buying Jacoi Crosky Marin again, that matchup ended up being better than we thought it might be. So look, running back is tough right now, especially with six teams on by like Crosby Merit, you're probably going to have to be starting this week for most part. So I Think that if you're hurting a running back, you have guys on by cross merit. It's really more about the price. I think that you're right about him being frustrating, but that's why I think he can be acquired for really, really little because the stock has fallen so far. And to your point, he isn't putting up these massive fantasies totals, but I'm looking at betting on the efficiency that I've seen from him as a rusher and that I think the team might lean on him a little bit more with Daniels banged up.
- [16:44]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I, I get, I get the price thing. I just, I mean, I, I know you hit on the matchups a little, but like five of the next six games at Kansas City, Seattle, Detroit, Denver, at Minnesota, sprinkled in there is an at Miami, which is obviously really enticing. There's also a bye week sprinkled in there as well. But five of the next six games are, I mean, Chiefs, Seahawks, Lions, Broncos, Vikings. That's, you know, not that, not that enticing. Let's go to your next running back to buy here.
- [17:11]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah. So Chase. Chase Brown for the Cincinnati Bengals. And this one is really, really driven by the schedule rest of season. You look at the strength of schedule tool on fantasy spros. The Bengals have the number one schedule rest season for running backs and the number one schedule for running backs in the fantasy football playoffs. So the Chase Brown stock and talking about stock that has fallen off dramatically since draft season, Chase Brown, I don't think anyone has really fallen off since then in a larger capacity. But over the last couple weeks, with Joe Flacco under center for the Bengals, we've seen Chase Brown kind of pop off a little bit. He's been more efficient the last two weeks, especially against Pittsburgh where he had over 100 rushing yards on just 11 carries with over 100 yards coming after contact, six missed tackles forced. Looking like the guy that, hey, we thought could be a potential league winner when we were drafting him. Now, so many things change. The offensive line struggle in the beginning of the year. Joe Burrow obviously got injured. But I think that just matchups and price make Chase Brown a buy for a lot of these reasons. So I get that he's still splitting some time with Samaj P. Ryan. That hasn't been ideal, but for me it's about just buying into the matchups. Right. You know, at running back. And I think the Chase Brown stock has dipped enough where a fantasy manager might be willing to ship him off again, hasn't scored a lot of touchdowns this season. But the Joe Flacco thing, man, I. I underestimated what he could do in this offense. Right. I was wrong about, you know, selling Jamar Chase a couple weeks back. That ended up being a really bad take, and he just really elevated things. The thing I think is most amazing to me when it comes to Flacco is the offensive line has played so much better.
- [18:43]
Worm
And I'm like, this offensive line just hate Jake Browning or something because all of a sudden, Joe Flacco is just operating from these, like, flawless, clean pockets between this offensive line.
- [18:53]
Andrew Erickson
So I know, like, they're getting the ball out quick. Go. Flaco still is bad under pressure. Like, his numbers under pressure have been terrible, even with the Bengals. But if you get the ball out in a nanosecond to Jamar Chase and you're trying to get a semblance of a run game going with Chase Brown, it really hasn't mattered. So, yeah, I'm just buying the matchups with Chase Brown and hoping that, hey, with an improved offensive output, he can produce fantasy RV2 numbers. Where.
- [19:19]
Ryan Warmley
So he's not ranked as an RB2 rest of season. Consensus rankings, which are updated on fantasypros.com rankings, but he just barely misses. He's RB25 in those rest of season rankings right now. That's in half PPR scoring. You know, you talk about him performing like an RB2. Does that mean that you think that RB25 is too low? Where do you have him ranked rest of season?
- [19:42]
Andrew Erickson
I have him. I'm pretty sure I probably have him ranked somewhere in that general vicinity because again, you are trying to capture what is the market viewing Chase Brown as. I think that you kind of have to limit his ranking a little bit. So I have him. Yeah. I mean, I have him in a similar range. Mine haven't been updated since last night, so I need to move some other pieces around. He's also kind of in this cluster of running backs. Again, I'm not looking at the ECR ones, but I'm looking at mine. But he's in a territory with guys like etn, Mason, the Panthers running backs, Camara, Rashad White, Jalen. Like, is that the vicinity that he is in? Right. With all those types of running backs.
- [20:22]
Ryan Warmley
It's kind of funny. Some of those names are. Are very different in ECR. Like, ETN is. Is way up at RB18, so he's a lot higher. But yeah, it's like so, like, yeah, dowdles there. David Montgomery, Camara Mason, Dobbins, Omarion Hampton is In that range. Ramond Dre. Those are kind of the names that he's around ecr, right.
- [20:42]
Andrew Erickson
So I think a lot of those guys have a lot of pros and cons to them. So it is kind of a conglomerate of, okay, well, which running back do you like? Why buy into said running back? And for me, what's the positive case for Chase Brown is I like the schedule rest of season. I think it's really good for him to perform above expectation. So that's why he would be a buy low for me. And again, you mentioned if I could flip Ramandre Stevenson for Chase Brown. I'm doing that in a second.
- [21:09]
Ryan Warmley
I think a lot of these names I would actually trade for Chase Brown, honestly, like a lot of names that I have just read off, I would rather have Chase Brown then, which I didn't. I don't know that I actually realized until I started reading off than it. Like, I think I'd rather have Chase Brown than David Montgomery. Like, you know, barring an injury to Gibbs, which obviously, you know, we're not gonna be sitting here predicting, I think I might rather. I, I'm a really big believer that Flaco Kit can do at least enough to let the good Bengals players take advantage of the schedule. I'm not saying Flacco is going to lead them to the playoffs or anything crazy like that, so. But I am buying into the narrative that he can sort of save the fantasy seasons for at least their main three guys and again, taking advantage of that schedule. So I'd rather have Chase Brown than David Montgomery. I'd rather have chase Brown than J.K. dobbins. I think rest of the season, as of right now, I would rather have him than probably either Panthers running back just because I don't know what the usage is going to look like there. I'd rather have him than maybe Alvin Camara. I, I, I am a, I'm a believer in him and I, I think he should be ranked as an RB too. I think RB25 is. I'm not saying it's wildly low, but I do think it's a little bit too low. Would you rather have him or Jaqu Crosky merit rest of the season?
- [22:17]
Andrew Erickson
I think I'd still rather have Crosky merit. I'm definitely probably the higher one on him. And I got to talk about the reasons why I like, I still like buying on Bill just because I think that he's looked good this year. He's been really efficient, so I like those reasons. But to your point about some of these other running backs that we talked about. If there's no reason for you to keep that running back or if you're not trying to buy Dave Montgomery, then sell them.
- [22:38]
Worm
Sell them for, for Chase Brown because you see a.
- [22:41]
Andrew Erickson
Or I'm trying to paint the picture for why Chase Brown can be better than he was to start the year. And I think that the matchups again we see those running backs all the time. Who's facing Miami this week right like and I believe that yeah the Bengals their weeks 14 through 16 schedule. Bills, Ravens, Dolphins. Right. Like just having him for Week 16 against the Dolphins is warrant him to.
- [23:02]
Worm
Be traded for like, like that that alone is making it worth trading for Chase Brown because when you're a first.
- [23:09]
Ryan Warmley
Place team you should actually like if you're like 70 and like you're sitting real pretty here like I actually would say for week 16 alone go trade for Chase Brown.
- [23:18]
Worm
Yeah.
- [23:18]
Ryan Warmley
And who just there's a chance Burrows back for then too. And the offense looks even better than it does with Flacco.
- [23:23]
Andrew Erickson
So yeah, yeah I, I just think that another really efficient week from Chase Brown and I think his price is going to go up significantly and even though it was a prime time game and he looked good, he still didn't score. I don't think that he scored a touchdown. So I still think it's. And there are Samajp Ryan concerns with his touch volume but yeah man, I just this Flacco thing just he's, he's moving this offense and it's it really over. Over what I expected at least.
- [23:49]
Ryan Warmley
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- [25:34]
Ryan Warmley
NMLS 910457@ Energy Trust of Oregon, we.
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- [26:07]
Ryan Warmley
Who is your first running back to.
- [26:09]
Andrew Erickson
Sell Alvin Camara for the New Orleans Saints. He is a sell high for me and that's because I think that with this Kendra Miller injury, you're going to see his value spike. And I don't think that's for the right reasons because last week he had all of the snaps and touches in this backfield, 85% of the snapshot he had 29 yards on 14 touches. The receiving target usage has been up and down with Spencer Rattler. Some games it's been okay, other games it's really not been a factor. The Saints also just put one of their starting offensive linemen on injured reserve Eric McCoy and Kellen Moore was talking about rookie Devin Neal after the game on Monday where yeah, Devin Neal's gonna have a role in this offense. So I don't think it's just okay. All of Kendra Miller's carries now go to Alvin Kamara and now he's going to be a smash. He's been the RB1 in this backfield for most of the season. Now Kendrick Miller has been good and I think that he has affected Camara's output. But even with the opportunities Camara has had, he's RB16 and expected fantasy points per game. He's RB32, an actual fantasy points per game. He's BFF's fifth lowest graded running back. He's facing the Bucks, the Rams and the Panthers the next three weeks and we've talked about this on a couple different shows. Panthers, they're like a legit run defense now.
- [27:26]
Worm
They're like they're not a bad run defense anymore.
- [27:29]
Andrew Erickson
So three game stretch of tougher matchups against running backs. I think that you can use the Miller injury as a reason to sell high on a running back that's been underperforming all year long. So for those reasons, I think Alvin Camara would be a sell high for me. And it's a weird scenario of sell high because you're not selling high off a performance because it hasn't been the performance driven. It's a narrative driven where oh Kendrick Miller is out Camara to the moon. I does anyone go to the moon on the Saints?
- [27:57]
Worm
Like that's my concern with him.
- [27:59]
Andrew Erickson
So I think that there is a floor with Camara that I kind of think it's always been there just because he is involved in the passing game. He is a starting running back. He should still play a significant amount of snaps. But is that going to be a difference maker in fantasy or a Moodle meter when if someone else thinks that I will happily trade him away to that manager for something with more upside.
- [28:18]
Ryan Warmley
But what do you think you can get for Alvin Kamara? Because you're right, he's not truly a buy or to me a sell high because the performance hasn't been there. But he's clearly like the narrative of Kendrick Miller being hurt is going to boost his value right now. So like what do you think is the actual return you could get for somebody like Camaro who has this big name brand value in terms of what he's been for years and years for managers has not been good at all. He has one touchdown this season and it was back in week one. You know, he has, he's only finished inside the top 20amongst running backs in half PPR scoring once since week one. And it was an RB16 finish in week six. I mean, like, what, what do you think you can get for him right now? Like how, how much does the, the Miller injury boost him in terms of names like that you would throw out that you could. You think you could get for him?
- [29:11]
Andrew Erickson
Ash Genti after. I know, an abysmal game. I don't know, man.
- [29:17]
Worm
People are running to the hills when it comes to these Raiders and I don't necessarily disagree.
- [29:23]
Ryan Warmley
Look, I, I don't think you can get Ash if you can do that. I, I totally agree with that, but I, I don't think anybody is. At least not in a one for one. I think it'd be like, it'd be like Chimera plus, pretty sizable piece in my opinion.
- [29:37]
Andrew Erickson
So then maybe it's really not a one for one trade that you're trying to do. I think maybe you're packaging Chimera. I, you know, I think the thing with trades too is when you package Chimera for one other player, the other person that's looking at that deal, they see Khmer and they're thinking, you know, Kendra Miller is out.
- [29:54]
Worm
Maybe that's really good for Alvin. They kind of try to convince themselves why they should buy into Chimera and take this deal because, oh, Kendrick Miller's up.
- [30:01]
Andrew Erickson
Maybe this is a really good thing for him. And again, I'm not saying that it's a negative for Camara. I think that overall it should boost something, but to the extent that his market value should be boost that significantly higher, that's where I get concerned. So look, it's. I think it's a price check because some people may think on my side of things where, no, Camara has not been that great this year and they're expecting Devin Neil. So it's more maybe a price check where put Camara on the block, see what kind of offers you can get. Especially for a team that has a lot of running back issues. You know, what's the best receiver they have on their team, Maybe a flip for that. Or maybe you're packaging him with somebody else to try to move up to that next tier, like a Genti, like a Derrick Henry, like a Javante Williams, where you're using Camara as a piece with something else to, to move up.
- [30:46]
Ryan Warmley
I would trade Camara for Trace Brown if you can. J.K. dobbins, who I just Said, you know I would have lower than Brown. I would trade for Dobbins Walker, DeAndre Swift. I think those gets into more of an obvious range that we would be kind of on board with. Here's the one I want to throw at you. Would you trade Alvin Camara for a Marion Hampton knowing that you're going to be missing X number of weeks for Hampton but that, you know, he, he should be the bell cow once he returns?
- [31:10]
Andrew Erickson
I think this one's probably dependent on your record, right? It's really hard to trade for an injured running back when you need wins. Right now that would be my only hesitation. But I would agree that the upside play when we're talking about this six weeks from now, this could be Hampton easily and we can reflect on this trade and think, wow, I can't believe I was able to trade Camara to get o' Marion Hampton.
- [31:34]
Ryan Warmley
So it's as a general rule not even just talking about Camara. If you're in first place, go find the Omarion Hampton manager and say hey, it's there are six teams on by. He's not going to be back anytime soon and make an offer.
- [31:49]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, no, I agree with that. That makes a lot of sense.
- [31:52]
Ryan Warmley
Who's your other running back to sell.
- [31:53]
Andrew Erickson
Erickson Ramandre Stevenson for the New England Patriots? Just because I've seen this before where he has one really good game and.
- [32:00]
Worm
Then the next week it just absolutely crumbles.
- [32:03]
Andrew Erickson
Happened against Miami, looked like an absolute monster. And then the next week he just does absolutely nothing. So coming off one of his best outings of the year, 18 carries for 88 yards, 77 of the snapshot. I think that this is prototypical perfect sell high window because who are they playing this week? Cleveland Browns. Right.
- [32:21]
Worm
One of the. One of the tougher run defenses.
- [32:23]
Andrew Erickson
Even though the Patriots are playing at home again after that, it's the Falcons, Bucks, jets, some decent run games or run defenses. So I think you just got to sell high on Ramondre. You can flip Ramondre for the two guys we talked about earlier, Chase Brown or Jechroy Crosby Merritt. I think that's the move to make. Trevin Henderson is not going to play 14 of the snaps every single week. They even talked about that post with Mike Ravel. He just said, yeah, no, Ramandre was hot so we just kept riding the hot hand. Maybe that continues or maybe Ramondre fumbles again. Right. Because that happens pretty frequently with this running back. So I have serious trust issues with Stevenson. He's a running back that it's really hard to click the button on and start or sit situations. This matchup was good against the Tennessee Titans. This matchup against the Cleveland Browns is not good. So if you look at the matchups that Stevenson has blown up against, it's been these really, really favorable spots. Titans was a great matchup. Dolphins was a great matchup. Browns is not a great matchup. So if you're just this Patriots backfield.
- [33:22]
Worm
Overall is really frustrating just just like up and down. So I think that this is the.
- [33:27]
Andrew Erickson
Perfect time to like hey you want to wipe your hands clean just just trade it for Chase Brown. Just like you just rather would have Chase Brown rest of season than Ramon. I can I feel really confident saying this and maybe this is another cold.
- [33:38]
Worm
Takes exposed thing coming back to me.
- [33:40]
Andrew Erickson
But I don't know Worm, how do.
- [33:41]
Worm
You feel about this?
- [33:44]
Ryan Warmley
I what I'm wondering is if you see the flip side of this as you are still interested in buying Henderson because I while this upcoming matchup is difficult and I would I would not want to be starting Stevenson this week if I could avoid it. It is by Mageddon so maybe you have to but I would not want to start Stevenson against against the Browns. But if you kind of feel like it's time to put the nail in the coffin on our hopes and dreams for Trayvon Henderson this season, then I wouldn't want to get away from Stevenson because I am a believer in Drake May I'm a believer in this offense against what is a very good schedule after this short stretch year because it's Cleveland and Atlanta back to back. You know the back half of the season though for for the Patriots schedule is really, really juicy. Unfortunately that Miami game, his next one comes in week 18 so he won't get another one the playoffs he still have Bills Ravens Bills and Ravens are still in the Fantasy Playoffs Week 14 by Is there which isn't nothing but I'm a believer in Drake May which means I'm a believer in this offense which means I'm a believer in whoever the lead running back is. And I think it's totally valid to sit here and say like if he didn't if he didn't do it against Tennessee, if he didn't do it against you know, Miami earlier in the season, if he didn't do it against Buffalo earlier in the season that like it's just not happening for Henderson and if Stevenson's going to be the lead back here then maybe he's worth actually targeting and not looking to sell if you don't believe that if you say no, I still just, I'm, I'm going to buy into Trayvon Henderson. You know, I'm going to go down with that chip then, then yes, I think it like makes a lot more sense to sell him, but I, I would have very low expectations for the next couple of weeks. Again, I would try to not start him if you can, but at the back half of the schedule is so nice that if he's still the lead back in this backfield when we get to that part of the schedule, I'd rather have him on the team.
- [35:37]
Andrew Erickson
So how confident are you him being the starting running back?
- [35:40]
Ryan Warmley
I'm not.
- [35:42]
Worm
So that's kind of why it's like.
- [35:44]
Andrew Erickson
Just let, let it be someone else's problem.
- [35:46]
Worm
Especially if you can get something back decent for it.
- [35:49]
Andrew Erickson
Again, this isn't saying that Stevenson has no more value. That's, that's not the case a lot. Again you have to trade something of value most time to get something back of value. So I just think that with the ups and downs of Stevenson and the. Again, I don't know what's going to happen with Henderson. I do know that rookie running backs tend to hit more in the second half of the year than the first half. Like that is a fact. Like that happens every single year. So Henderson's going to have a bigger role than he had this past game. Right? He's had bigger roles than he had this past game. I don't know how good he's going to be because he's not been good this season. But Bills, Ravens, Jets, I mean if Henderson has a bigger role in those matchups in weeks 14, 15 and 16 or 15, 16 and 17, then Ramon Dre may not be as productive. So I just, I just kind of want to wipe my hand cleans of any risk of that even happening because it's still a potential. And I just think that Stevenson offer a monster game. When I think to your point, everybody's basically ready to bury Chavion Henderson just because this was rock bottom for him. I think that this is a good sell high window.
- [36:51]
Ryan Warmley
And by the way, monster game was still under 100 yards and he just had one touchdown. It's like his ceiling is still under 20 fantasy points even in these big blow up spots. I would trade him for Chase Brown. I think that's a good call. Just, just quickly. No explanation, just give me a name. Would you rather have Stevenson or Camaro rest of season?
- [37:10]
Andrew Erickson
I think I would rather have Chimera.
- [37:12]
Ryan Warmley
All right, let's Go to the Buy, sell, or hold trios here. First one I have for you, Cam. Scatter Boo, Quinshon, Judkins, Breece Hall. Again, that's Scatter, Boot, Judkins and Hall. Buy, sell or hold.
- [37:25]
Andrew Erickson
I think I'm going to hold Quinchon Judkins. He's a bell cow. Although I don't know. There's still a chance that he could get suspended at some point, so that's always something I'm trying to be aware of when I'm explaining what to do with him. So for the most part, I just think that he's a good hold. I know he's coming off the game against Miami, so maybe it would be a better hot sell high situation for him, but I think I'm probably just gonna sell or hold him. I don't want to scout. I don't want to sell, Scam, Scatter Boo, though. I don't.
- [38:00]
Worm
I've already been down this road with, oh, the schedule's really tough, and that was totally wrong. And he just does. He's an absolute monster.
- [38:06]
Andrew Erickson
So I'm, I'm just gonna, I guess I'm gonna buy him. I guess it means I have to sell Breeze Hall. Just, I get. You can sell him based on the idea that he's going to get traded.
- [38:15]
Worm
I guess, and maybe that's good for his fantasy value.
- [38:19]
Andrew Erickson
But the jets are a dumpster fire right now, and even though he's getting pretty favorable usage, just the offense is, is holding him back significantly. So, yeah, I, I think that I would probably lean more on buying most of these running backs, but if you're making me. I guess maybe the better way to explain it is who do I ranked lowest rest of season? It's probably Breeze Hall.
- [38:43]
Ryan Warmley
You're gonna throw people off because I have to remind them every week that this is not a ranking. This is like market value. And buy. You know, who can you. What can you get the most for and that it makes sense to move off of. So don't mention rankings because you're gonna confuse the audience.
- [38:56]
Andrew Erickson
This. No, well, these trios confuse me because.
- [38:58]
Ryan Warmley
Well, they're supposed to be difficult. You're the expert here, though. I, I, I think that. Who do you think you would get the most, four out of these three? I think it's, I mean, it's clearly Judkins or Scatter, I think because hall is ranked lowest. Who do you think you would get more for? Scatter Boo or Judkins?
- [39:17]
Andrew Erickson
Probably Scatter Boo. I think that everybody loves him, so I Think he's probably the most. And Judge Kins, I think that people or most fantasy managers know and can acknowledge that there is still that suspension thing potentially potentially lingering. And he did just say the Dolphins.
- [39:34]
Ryan Warmley
And yeah, Miami of it all.
- [39:37]
Andrew Erickson
Yes. There's a pretty clear pattern of hey, guy goes off against the Dolphins the.
- [39:42]
Worm
Next week, doesn't face the Dolphins and it isn't nearly as good.
- [39:46]
Andrew Erickson
So maybe you're right. Maybe Judkins would be the sell high just because he does play on the Browns. What is the upside? He is facing the Patriots this week. Man, Worm, great job man. Like you. Kudos to you, dude. Yeah, I think Judge, yeah, you probably gotta sell Judkins just because he's the guy you can get the most for. And his outlook this week in particular is going to be the biggest fall off in terms of what your expectation is versus Scatterboo or which is already high expectation. He's facing the Eagles again. He had a great game against them two weeks ago, so you want to hold on to that. And Breece Hall, I mean bottom of the barrel type of guy you can acquire and if he does get traded, well, yeah, his value just skyrockets. So good job.
- [40:27]
Ryan Warmley
That. That's what I would have done is soldier.
- [40:29]
Worm
So we got to the right answer.
- [40:30]
Andrew Erickson
Yes.
- [40:31]
Ryan Warmley
In the end to my correct answer. You landed there. All right, next trio here. Jalen, Warren, DeAndre Swift, Travis ETN. Again, that's Warren Swift ETN. Buy, sell or hold.
- [40:44]
Andrew Erickson
Travis ETN. Definitely selling. 100% selling Travis ETN. I have ETN in a lot of spots and I'm trying to desperately move off of him. The efficiency has fallen off the last few weeks.
- [40:56]
Ryan Warmley
Do you think you can get a lot for him? I mean under eight fantasy points three straight weeks?
- [41:00]
Andrew Erickson
Well, we didn't.
- [41:01]
Ryan Warmley
And not a buy.
- [41:02]
Andrew Erickson
No. It's not easy to try to move off him and I, I feel like we talked about him a little bit earlier before we saw this type of fall off kind of happen. So hopefully he looks like a league.
- [41:11]
Ryan Warmley
Winner after the first month of the season.
- [41:13]
Andrew Erickson
Yes. But this is what ETN does, man.
- [41:15]
Worm
He always starts out the gates red hot and then he falls off in the second half of the season. So I think that's happening yet again.
- [41:23]
Andrew Erickson
I think we're going to see more of Bashal Tutin in the second half of the year. Tutin has been on the injury report almost every single week with a shoulder injury. I think that's going to mean he's going to be more involved. The matchups are brutal for the rest of the season for the Jaguars. Not necessarily ideal. And you've seen that the last couple of weeks when the Jaguars have faced tougher matchups, ETN has not been nearly as productive. So they're still using three different running backs between Liquin Allen and two in along with etn. So yeah, it's tough right now. You probably can't sell them as high on the bye week. I think maybe you should probably just wait one more week for him to come back and then try to sell him because you might get a little bit more. But yeah, I would be trying to move ETN, Jalen Warren and DeAndre Swift Swift is probably the hold for me just because the Bears have a lot of great matchups coming up and he's been put in favorable spots. This is classic DeAndre Swift, right? Just look absolutely terrible for the first month of the year and then come.
- [42:17]
Worm
Back and then turn into Barry Sanders for the next couple of games. So this is a classic DeAndre Swift.
- [42:24]
Andrew Erickson
So he would be a hold for me. And then I guess Jalen Warren would probably be the the buy by default. I think Warren has looked really good this year. He's popped off in a lot of rushing advanced metrics, especially in terms of missed tackles forced. Not like a massive believer in Kenneth Gainwell. I know that he's kind of sprinkled in here and there in certain matchups. I think that's probably how I would do it. I don't know. How do you feel?
- [42:48]
Ryan Warmley
I I would agree that I would say that Swift would be my buy, the only thing I'm holding off on. And I recognize that we are still months away from this mattering and you know, matchups change all the time. The playoff schedule is not great for Swift. Week 14 on is at Green Bay, Cleveland Green Bay again at San Francisco. So that is discouraging. Which is why if I'm trying to think long term and go for again, it's a little early to be talking fantasy playoff schedule. Those teams could look very different between now and then based on injuries or trades or whatever. But I do really like what I've seen out of Swift in the last couple of weeks coming out of the buy. And I am. I tend to be a believer that for the next, you know, month, month and a half, he's going to be very good. I just worry about those matchups late in the season.
- [43:32]
Andrew Erickson
Yeah, I would agree with that and I think that's probably why I lean on the Warren side a little bit more because look at The Steelers matchup. So the packers this week, that's not great. But then it's Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Bears.
- [43:45]
Worm
Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, lions again, week 17 at Browns. That's atrocious.
- [43:52]
Andrew Erickson
But besides that, I think Warren schedule is a little bit better. And again, I think that they are probably pretty closely ranked in terms of where they are rest of season. Maybe Swift's a little bit higher, but.
- [44:03]
Ryan Warmley
I think Swift is a hold for now. But I think in a month, right. Leading up to the fantasy trade deadline, I'll be wanting to sell him.
- [44:11]
Andrew Erickson
I also, I also like how I'm an anguy a decent amount too.
- [44:14]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I like that he's.
- [44:16]
Andrew Erickson
I think he's an underrated.
- [44:17]
Ryan Warmley
Now you and I are manang guys. Okay. We like Kyle Manon guy. Hopefully that goes better than being the Audric estimates.
- [44:27]
Worm
I mean, part of that was because.
- [44:28]
Andrew Erickson
I did not like Swift that much. But to Chris Swift's credit, he's playing really, really well. But both running backs have played significantly better with the Bears kind of figuring out their run game the last two weeks.
- [44:38]
Ryan Warmley
Last trio here. We'll go quickly because we're running pretty long. Jordan Mason, Rico Dowdle, David Montgomery. Again, that's Mason, Dowdle, Montgomery. You might notice the pattern on these three is they're guys that are kind of number twos in their offenses, but who are good players when given the opportunity. So obviously Mason has been starting for several weeks here with Aaron Jones hurt. Rico Dowdle, we know what he did for those two weeks. David Montgomery, we know what he can do if Gibbs wasn't in the picture. So I want to kind of put the three of them together since they all kind of fit that same archetype. So Mason, Dowdle, Montgomery, buy, seller, hold.
- [45:08]
Andrew Erickson
I think Mason would probably be the buy for me. And this is obviously risky because Aaron Jones is theoretically coming back. But I don't know about you, Warren, but I've heard like nothing from Aaron Jones.
- [45:20]
Ryan Warmley
I was, I was actually going to ask you during this segment, I was going to say, do we know? I feel like a couple of weeks in a row I've been like, oh, he's probably pretty close. And then I just heard eligible to.
- [45:29]
Andrew Erickson
Come back this well.
- [45:30]
Ryan Warmley
I know, but why isn't he back?
- [45:33]
Worm
I don't know.
- [45:35]
Andrew Erickson
That's.
- [45:35]
Worm
That's the thing.
- [45:36]
Andrew Erickson
So I think there's maybe this fear or maybe an unwarranted fear of him coming back when I've heard nothing about them activating his 21 practice window or whatever. That's usually what they do when guys are coming off injured preserve. He is a bit of an older running back who has dealt with some injuries in the past. So and even when both guys are healthy, I always envisioned Mason still having a role in this Vikings offense. So with offensive line getting healthier, Aaron Jones still like tbd. I think Mason and again he's facing the Chargers this week. This is a smash spot for Mason, especially if he is a bell cow. So even just in the short term, I think he's the guy I would rather have. The Panthers situation is a lot like the Seahawks where the best guy may not even see the most amount of carries or touches. I think Rico's probably just a hold because we know what the upside can be if we when someone were to get hurt. So I think that there's but I guess you could make that same argument with Dave Montgomery.
- [46:31]
Worm
So now I'm talking myself out of that.
- [46:35]
Andrew Erickson
Rico or Dave Montgomery is a sell. I mean you can't sell Dave Montgomery after that. Dud.
- [46:41]
Worm
Another dud.
- [46:43]
Ryan Warmley
You know, I actually forgot, by the way, just clicking on Jones that they didn't put him on IR right away. So he hasn't been eligible to return until this week. So I do want to just bring that up in case that was confusing during that part of the conversation like why he hasn't come back yet. They play Thursday night this week? I believe so yeah, they're playing the tr. We will know early in the week if Jones were to return now that he is eligible. Like you said. You know, we haven't heard really anything about like practicing or anything like that. But this is his first time that he can be he can return so we'll see if he does.
- [47:16]
Andrew Erickson
I think just haven't been super high on Montgomery this year. I know he's a player that we've talked about selling before, so I don't know. I don't think I have any reason to change course now. So I think again, both guys have extreme upside if their starters were to get hurt. But I guess if everyone's healthy, I think Dowdle has more of a case to overtake Hubbard than I mean Montgomery's not touching Gibbs in the Gibbs show in in Detroit. So I guess I would sell Montgomery, hold Dowdle and buy Jordan Mason.
- [47:47]
Ryan Warmley
Don't forget to check out our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific fantasy trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. Be sure to check out Part two with wide receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best week free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [48:52]
Podcast Announcer
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