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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
Week 9 Buy Low + Sell High Running Back Targets (Ep. 1804)
00:39:41
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- [00:00]
A
This is an iHeart podcast. Fantasy Pro's fantasy football podcast is brought to you by Grainger. If you work as a maintenance manager, your facility is your home turf and your home field advantage is having a partner like Grainger. They offer trusted professional grade products for every industry from lighting and electrical to safety and everything in between. Plus fast dependable delivery. Which is why they always come through in the clutch. Just like you. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I am Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Erickson. We are talking buys and sells. This is part one. We are going to be focusing on the running backs in this episode and then of course in part two, as always we will be talking about the wide receivers and then a little bit on the quarterbacks and tight ends as well. If I am yawning at all during this episode, it's because I did stay up and watch every inning of the World Series game that went to 18 innings last night. It was an epic one of the best baseball games, postseason games that I certainly can remember watching in a very long time. Shouts to the Dodgers, I am rooting for them even though they're the big bad, scary, you know, machine overspending everybody. As an Orioles fan I cannot possibly root for the Blue Jays. So all in on the Dodgers. Excited to see them walk that off. Did you watch any of that game Ericson?
- [01:28]
B
What is baseball? No, I did not watch any of this this baseball game that you are talking about. I did see some of the highlights on TV that the Dodgers when they there's a walk off home run, right? Is that how they won in by Freddy Freeman?
- [01:40]
A
Yeah.
- [01:41]
B
Yeah. So that's really cool. I always like to think myself as a low key Dodgers fan. I have a bunch of Dodgers hats because I really like. Oh really? It's a very classic look. Just the la. I think it's a really good look especially for a baseball hat. I got a couple LA baseball hats so go Dodgers. Glad they won.
- [01:59]
A
One of the guys on our social team, Tyler will not be happy to hear that. He is a. He lives in Canada. He's a die hard Toronto Blue Jays fan and I was following him on Twitter last night. Just living and dying with every pitch. It's. I mean there's nothing like playoff baseball. The. The lack of a clock just makes it so different from every other sport. And so you get to these World Series games that go on and on and are just, they're, they're really epic. So that was fun. One game that I'm sure you did watch is Monday Night Football. This one was not a close extra innings affair or anything similar to that. It was a blowout. Although it was closer early in the first half before the Chiefs pulled away in the second half 287 win for Kansas City Mahomes. He did throw two picks technically but like you know, just continues to be awesome in general. Just barely missed 300 yards and three touchdowns for the game. Isaiah Pacheco led the team in carries, 12 carries, 58 attempts, that's a 4.8 average. Kareem Hunt had nine carries, 40 yards and of course had two touchdowns. One in the air, one on the ground. Travis Kelsey was good, 99 yards and a touchdown. Rashid Rice just looks like he's going to be very much worth the six week wait for any managers called on him. Nine catches, 93 yards and a touchdown. Let's just start on that chief side. This off offense is really all systems go right now. The running back room is frustrating for fantasy managers because the guy getting most of the carries and who's has started to look better is not the guy getting the goal line work. But besides that, this is a pretty straightforward fun offense to be a part of.
- [03:25]
B
Yeah, I mean they're one of the most pass happy offenses in the NFL. So you're getting a ton of volume from across the board. Rashi Rice has stepped in and immediately became the alpha. I'd like to see that that poll now where since you've got Rashi Rice back in your lineup, what is your record? I know I'm at least 20 since getting him back after struggling for the first six weeks of the season without Rashi Rice. So yeah, he has been an absolute monster. It looks like he could score a touchdown every single week and he actually had in this game he could have scored three touchdowns. Right. He gets tackled at the one on one of his rush. He has another red zone attempt that he gets tackled inside the five yard line. So again it's not usually going to be Kareem Hut that scores the multiple touchdowns. Usually going to be one of these pass catchers. Probably Rashi Rice. So I think he's locked and load as like a top five favorite fantasy wide receiver rest of season. We'll say with Kelsey, a lot of his yardage came on really two big plays. He had two plays over 30 yards. I wouldn't necessarily bank on that being super sustainable week after week. We have seen where he's not nearly as involved when Rice is involved. You look at the splits from the first half to the second half. Kelsey was more involved in the first half where Rice was not, and then you saw the opposite in the second half. So I do think there's going to be a little push and pull when it comes to Kelsey and Rice. I think Rice is the alpha. I think if he's seen a lot of targets, it's going to hurt Kelsey in the long run. So something Kelsey's kind of like a sell high, but again, it's tight end. So, you know, do with it what you want. If you can't upgrade from Kelsey, then, you know, just hold him. He plays with Mahomes and he can always catch a touchdown like he did this past week. So I would say with the backfield, just keep tabs on Pacheco and his knee. It looked like he had y. He took a major hit to his knee and it looked like, oh my God. Like this could be a devastating injury for a guy coming off an injury from last year. However, he looked like he was okay on the sideline. We'll see. Because sometimes players do this where it doesn't look as bad during the game and then we get reports later on it swells up, etc. So that's something to kind of monitor. I know Brashad Smith really regressed in his role. It looked like he was ascending and then his role just tanked. He did fumble in this game, so maybe that was something that kind of dipped in his yushin cream. Hunt was obviously healthier than last week. So, um, I would look at those Chiefs other running backs of Hunter Schmidt is available on waivers. I would be looking to scoop those guys up in case Pacheco does miss some time with a potential knee injury. But that's really it from the chief side.
- [05:40]
A
Yeah, that's a good shot on the Pacheco injury as well. Just quickly on the chief side. And we're not gonna spend a ton of time on the Commanders. Cause no Jay and Daniels, you know, how much can you really even talk about? But Xavier Worthy, like if I took hold away as an option hold is not on the table. You have to either buy or sell Xavier Worthy right now. Which would you rather be doing?
- [06:02]
B
Probably just buy him just because I want Chiefs offense. Right. Like that's kind of the thesis of the play where I think that he saw eight targets in this game. He had one of his targets removed because of a penalty. He's a big play Specialist. These last two games haven't really been in his type of game script. Who are they playing next week? Buffalo Bills. Right. So if that game is high scoring 3030 and the Chiefs are actually pushed in some capacity or. Well, that's a matchup where Worthy can actually take advantage. I think we brought this up on the rank show where I compared Xavier Worthy to Jameson Williams and Fitz kind of pushed back on me and he was rightfully so to do it because yes, those guys are kind of profiling as Boomer bust, but which one of those teams has a strong run game and which one doesn't, Right. I don't think anybody is trying to pretend the Chiefs have this insane running attack. No, like they are a pass first offense. So I think that Worthy, if this is like the floor he can offer on a week to week basis and then obviously if he catches a long one for a touchdown, then you're feeling good about it. But Hunt's not going to score two touchdowns every single week. Kelsey's not going to rip off the massive plays every single week. So I think just considering his price where, I mean everyone's really pretty low on Worthy, I think he's a nice access point to getting this Chiefs offense on your roster.
- [07:13]
A
I'm pretty nervous about what the touchdowns are going to look like at the end of the year. It's just really hard to be a successful like impact fantasy wide receiver if you are not scoring any touchdowns. He had nine total last year, three of them on the ground. This year he has just one total. So you know he's on pace for two on the season. He'll, he'll probably finish with more than two. But the way they're using Rice so much down in that area, obviously the way they use their running backs when they're close to the goal line, it does make me nervous. Like he needs to break a long one. It feels like the score and that's just going to be inconsistent.
- [07:46]
B
No, I, I mean I agree with you, but if you, you're making me buy or sell, it's like, yeah, buy Chiefs offense, get Chiefs on your team.
- [07:54]
A
Anything on the commander side quickly. I mean again like with no Jaden Daniels, it's hard to evaluate the offense too much. Terry McLaren looked really good on his three catches. There was a degree of difficulty on them, but of course he leaves the game with a quad issue, the same quad that he missed several games with already this season. So keep an eye on that on a short week. Definitely a concern. And then like Jacori Kraski Merit, like we've talked about him a lot on the show. I know like people are interested in the usage he obviously of the running backs in this game because Mariota had eight carries. But other running backs in this game he had nine of the 11 carries that a running back had. Debo Samuel also had one. There were 12 total carries by non quarterbacks but like it was 2.8 yards per carry. It was against a good run defense. Like the Chiefs are a good defense in general. 9 for 25. Bad game script but like there's been a lot more duds than there have been breakout games from Bill this season.
- [08:48]
B
Yeah, I would agree with that. And you know I kind of was still on cross game as a buy last week. I thought that he was like a buy low and obviously that did not pan out here in this particular matchup. But he still was starting running back for, for the Commanders, right? He still played 50 of this 50, 57 of the snaps. Now he's not seeing three down usage in terms of catching passes. We know that McNichols is kind of in that role and this was obviously worst case scenario when it comes to the type of game script that it worked and it was a tough defense on the road. I think with cross game merit is, I mean he's pretty easy to sit I would say in terms of if he's on your roster. Like this was kind of a sit spot for him against the Chiefs. Next week he's playing the Seahawks, right? Sit up like there's no reason you should, you should play Karoski Merit. But we, when you look at the rest of the schedule and if there's a chance that you do get Jaden Daniels back, well he plays the Giants and Cowboys in the fantasy playoffs. Like those are really two great matchups for cross key Merritt and he's probably going to get dropped from a lot of different teams but he's still the starting running back on an offense that at least when Daniels is healthy he can run the ball. So again I wasn't right about him as a buy low. We'll see how things shake out in some better matchups. Right now you're probably just stuck with him. You just got to keep him on your bench.
- [10:00]
A
Even with like. So there are four teams on by in week nine. I feel like even with that I'm gonna not want him inside my, you know, top what 36 running back like against Seattle. And just the way he's like that will really make me quite nervous. Although you might be Kind of forced to rank him in the mid-30s or higher, just, you know, when you're missing players and injuries and stuff. But yeah, I would not be trying to start him this week for sure. Let's go to the running backs that we want to be buying right now. Erickson, who do you have to start things off for?
- [10:28]
B
Us going to go with Jalen Warren, running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. So I like what I've seen from him. The last couple weeks he's been around that 65% snapshare where Kenneth Gainwell's kind of been hovering around that 35% snapshare. I think Warren just looked really, really good, you know, last week. 62 yards on 13 carries. He's been really efficient all year long. Top 10 in rushing success rate and in PFF rushing grade this season. And I like the schedule rest of season for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's got some plus spots in the fantasy playoffs and, and Warren and I'd be interested to see Worm if you can pull this up. But his finishes by week are all really, really strong across the board. I don't know if he's had one week where he's just been like a total bust and it's been a different way. Sometimes it's because of receiving he's had, sometimes because he scored a touchdown. But he's really offered a pretty high floor every single week, even if he hasn't had this monster ceiling game. Of course, the one ceiling game for Steelers running back was Gainwell against the Vikings in Dublin or London in one of those games where Warren was inactive. So he kind of missed it on the smash spot. But besides that, he's been really consistent. He's RB15 and expected points per game. I think if you ask somebody, hey, Jalen Warren, Top 15 Running Back Rest of season. I think people would be like that seems kind of aggressive, but what we've seen so far is, yeah, that's kind of where he's been in that RB15 range. I think maybe, maybe that's his cap. But if he runs a little bit hot in some of these plus spots, I think that he's a solid running back to try and target in trades.
- [11:56]
A
So ironically, I didn't need to look it up because Tara and I do a short form video on five moves to make every week and she had Jaylen Warren as a buy on her show as well. So everybody should check that out if they want a little more conversation on Jaylen Warren. And I pointed out that exact same thing in on that episode about if you just look at his game log in his weekly finish, this is in half PPR scoring. It's RB17, RB13, RB20, RB25, RB10. And then this week was RB28. It was a little bit higher I think going into last night, but obviously like RB28 as the lowest finish on the season just really highlights the floor that you are. And it also kind of highlights the ceiling right there. There hasn't been that big smash like you you kind of mentioned like that was Kenneth Gainwell. RB10 is the highest finish and it came in the, you know, most enticing matchup he's had so far, which was at Cincinnati in week seven. But by and large he's been between RV10 and RV28. I mean not even just by and large, he has literally been between RV10 and RV28 in every game that he's played this season. He's really interesting on the schedule front. And this is something that I also talked about with Tara, which is the stretch run to get to the fantasy playoffs is amazing. The actual fantasy semifinals of fantasy championship are pretty bad. So the stretch run from week 11 through week 15, so just five straight weeks. Cincinnati, Chicago, Buffalo, Baltimore, Miami, those are really great run defenses to be going. That's an awesome five week stretch of opportunity and great matchup for Jalen Warren. Week 16 and 17 are at Detroit, at Cleveland. That looks a whole lot different. So it it schedule wise it's an interesting one because obviously you won't be able to like sell high on him after that Miami game by the time we get to week 15. But to get you to the playoffs, he's in really intriguing buy.
- [13:50]
B
And I will say in his defense he has shown that even in tougher matchups he's not going to just give you a total zero. Right. He faced the Browns earlier this year already and he was okay. Right? It wasn't like a.
- [14:01]
A
It was his second worst. Yeah, it was his second worst game.
- [14:04]
B
But relative to like what your expectations are from him, like, like you can still be able to start.
- [14:10]
A
Actually, actually it was his worst game by. By score. It was his second worst by positional finish, but it was. It was his worst by fantasy.
- [14:16]
B
But what was it? What was his finish? Right? Was it RB50? No, I think it was probably like RB30, right?
- [14:21]
A
It was RB25, but he only had 7.3 fantasy points, so.
- [14:25]
B
Well, I mean if he gets you to the dance, should be happy. They went after Jaylen Warren and then you can figure out week 16 when you get there.
- [14:34]
A
Yeah. Where. And Honestly, even week 16, like against Detroit, like, I could see him catching some passes in that game. Right. It's that week 17 at Cleveland. That is. That's the one that like looks really tough.
- [14:43]
B
Also though, Cleveland has a lot of injuries on defense right now, so things.
- [14:49]
A
Can, if they're change three and 13 going into that game. Defense is about effort. Does that defense look as strong as it did early in the year? I think is a fair point.
- [14:58]
B
And if the Steelers are chasing that 9 and 8 record, you know they're.
- [15:01]
A
Going to be going all out chasing that, that sweet four seed in the AFC. He's already 16 rest of season in the consensus rankings. That too high, too low or just right?
- [15:10]
B
No, I think that's. That's exactly spot on. Again, I don't know who the exact 15 running backs are ahead of him. I know he's 15 and expected points per game, so I think that 16 is a appropriate value for Jalen Warren rest of season.
- [15:22]
A
Some of the guys behind him in the rankings, Chase Brown, J.K. dobbins, DeAndre Swift, ETN, Kenneth Walker, Rico Daddle. You wouldn't make cases for them ahead of him, Any of them?
- [15:31]
B
Probably not, no. I think that Warren is probably the guy among that group.
- [15:35]
A
Okay. We usually look kind of in that teens and twenties range. That's usually kind of the sweet spot for players to trade really in either direction, buying or selling. But your other name here is somebody who's ranked a lot higher. So you're kind of aiming for a bigger fish with your second running back to buy.
- [15:51]
B
Yeah, this guy. Josh Jacobs for the Green Bay Packers. I think that maybe we have a potential buying window after the last two weeks with Jacobs, where it's not the production that's been lackluster. I think that his usage has kind of been interesting over the last couple weeks. He's been dealing with this calf injury that I think has limited his total volume. And it's gotten Emmanuel Wilson more involved. And I think it's just smart to take advantage of when the secondary running back comes in is looking better, more explosive, getting more yards. I think that gives you an opportunity for maybe you have a manager that's freaking out about Josh Jacobs and they think, oh no, it's turning into more of a committee. Emmanuel Wilson is getting more involved and I think Emmanuel Wilson has looked fine. But I think when push comes to shove, Josh Jacobs is the engine to this Green Bay packers offense. And I think that this offense performance they had against the Pittsburgh Steelers From Jordan Love looking really great to getting Christian Watson back. I think that this is the launch pad for this offense to just take off in the second half of the season. I think the Green Bay packers have a really great rest of season schedule. Specifically when you look at the running back position, it's one of the top schedules for running backs rest of season. Jacobs has also been good this year. PFF, seventh highest graded running back. He is RB3 in terms of expected points per game. He's second in rushing touchdowns only behind Jonathan Taylor, who scores three rushing touchdowns every single week. So I just want to buy running backs on good offenses and right now that is Josh Jacobs for me. So I think that just based on what's happened the last couple weeks, maybe with this calf thing kind of holding him back a little bit just from the packers overloading him with touches, maybe that is the buy low opportunity that you can get to try to buy high or buy low on a guy like Josh Jacobs.
- [17:34]
A
No 100 yard rushing games this season. Obviously he's been finishing quite well for fantasy managers due to the touchdowns, which I don't really expect to go anywhere. What, what, what is the type of name that you would give up for him? Would you be looking to package a couple of running backs to try and get a stud? Would you be saying like I'm going to move a wide receiver, I really like to get a running back I really like. Is there a buy low name that you or a sell, you know, a sell high name that you're thinking of that you want to flip for him one on one? What, what is the kind of approach to getting a player who checks two pretty key boxes in terms of people not wanting to move him, which is big name, drafted early and has been productive, even if it's been productive just relying on the touchdowns. What would you be looking like as far as names you'd throw out to move for him?
- [18:24]
B
I think maybe some guys, I'm worried about their long term longevity and how useful they'll be for me during the fantasy postseason. So two guys that comes to name that are running backs right now that are playing pretty well, J.K. dobbins will be one guy and DeAndre Swift will be the other guy. So we've talked about Swift, how the schedule right now is just absolutely fantastic but the minute that Swift hits the playoffs, this could be a disaster for the Bears run game. So it's like enjoy the ride with Swift, but eventually we gotta pull over and get off the highway. We gotta get off the Swift ride. So I think those two types of players and not to say that they can't be productive over the next couple of weeks, but I know Dobbins this week has the Texans as a brutal spot, especially going from Dallas to Houston. I think that's going to be a tough spot for him and we know that he has a long injury track record where I don't know if he's played a 17 game season ever in his NFL career. So with RJ Harvey kind of breaking out, maybe Dobbins plus a piece a wide receiver, a bench guy, someone that went off on your, you know, a boomer bust guy that went off this past week, I think maybe that's the way to approach getting Josh shake up. So moving up a tier at running back with guy like Dobbins or Swift.
- [19:32]
A
If you were a first place team and you're just like really trying to think about playoffs, would you package Dobbins and Swift together for Jacobs and say listen, like I know he's a big name. It's going to take maybe an overpay on pure value to get him. Just because that's the nature of how people make trades with guys they drafted early and who are producing for him. Would you trade them both to get him? If you're, you know, a team that's likely to make the playoffs already?
- [19:54]
B
Yeah, I think so. Trying to consolidate the top end of your roster where depth is not really as important. Like you were going all in on your starters for that playoff run and it's less important about well what if X guy gets hurt again? If your top guy gets hurt, then you're probably cooked anyway. So yeah, I think that I would be okay with doing that again. If you need wins right now, you probably want to keep Dobbins and Swift just because they have good matchups for the most part. Or Dobbins is tougher this week, but Swift has good matchups and he's producing for you as well. So I think that with trades in general it's always dependent or a big role that plays is, you know, where what do you need right now? Like you need to go on a win streak. Like you got to get guys are going to produce right now versus hey, I'm seven and one. I can really look ahead to the future.
- [20:36]
A
Yeah, and I mean most leagues, right, you go regular season will run through about week 14, so you got six weeks left. Like if you are below.500 you have to be considering that when making trades. You can't just like we talk a lot about like, oh yeah, look at this playoff matchup or what this guy can do for you in the playoffs. Like, you have to get there, right? So, you know, be mindful of what your record is when you're making these trades and and when we're giving this kind of analysis. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. We know Tuesdays are for scouting the waiver wire. Once you're done finding your diamond in the rough, head on over to Hard Rock Bet. See what their odds are to score another touchdown and see what their yardage total over is as well. On Hard Rock Bet, you don't have to wait for week nine to kick off to get in on the action. There's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but $150 in extra bonus bets. There's new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got. Any day of the week, download the Hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit payable and bonus bets.
- [21:38]
C
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- [22:03]
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- [24:43]
A
Erickson who is your first running back.
- [24:45]
B
To sell Travis ETN and I believe that he has been a sell on this show before and I think that after I list him as a sell he went off for another monster game with like another long touchdown run. But that has not been the case for him over the last couple weeks. So he's been bottled up basically for his last three games against the Rams before the Jaguars bye week, he was eight carries for 44 yards. He played 54% of the snap. So I've been concerned about ETN and his usage and his falloff and efficiency in tougher matchups. That concerns me for him long term and I think that Baychelle Tutin, the rookie running back is going to have a bigger role coming out of the bye week. We see this a lot of times with rookies after the buy, the coaches get them more involved in the game plan. And the thing to note with Tutin is he's been on the injury report for like the last month with a shoulder injury. So he's been limited in practice, limited in practice. Then he gets clear for the game and he sees a handful of touches and then that's really it for Tuin. So if he comes out of the bye week and is fully healthy, then we could see him carve out a larger role alongside etn. So again this week the matchup you're not really concerned about or with the Jaguars facing their Raiders are also coming off their bye week, but we do have matchups against the Texans that are coming up in the next month. That's a really tough matchup. I don't like the playoff schedule for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like they play the jets and the Broncos. I don't think that those are necessarily like the greatest spots for fantasy goodness. You know, maybe the jets will see what their defense looks like. But at Denver is is definitely a tough spot for running backs receivers to kind of overcome. So yeah, I'm just not excited about etn. And he does this all the time where first half of the season comes out guns blazing, looks great and then he starts to fade as the season continues. So with him coming off the bye week he is someone that I'm trying to get off my roster.
- [26:38]
A
A point I want to make that I think Travis Etienne kind of highlights well is and I am guilty of this when I am talking about how a player has done throughout the course of the season weekly positional finish, kind of reading through them, I think is is data point that I will fall back on regularly. I do think it's worth recognizing that like it's been not the deepest, you know, few weeks in a row for running back scoring. So for example with etn, if you look at the last three weeks, you know, leading up to the buy he was RB, positional finish RB 30, RB 23 RB 32 and you say, okay, well like falling off, like, but you're still like the 20s and early 30s. Like that's, that's maybe a similar floor to what we're talking about with Jalen Warren. Like a little bit lower, but like he's not actually being a disaster. His total points in those games and half PPR scoring were 7.3, 7.5 and 6. He didn't even reach eight fantasy points in any of those games. It's just that those were kind of weak weeks. Weak. We ak weeks wek. Like for example, he was RB23 in a week where he had seven and a half fantasy points. Like, it's just be mindful of that. Like, it's not like he's been playing very well and, and really has been giving you a floor a week where he gets you six fantasy points. Even if he's technically, you know, an upper half RB3 in the weekly finish. That does not matter for winning your, your fantasy matchup in a given week. That will not help you win a fantasy championship. That is, it is an irrelevant number essentially in the grand scheme of things. So I would just kind of caution people to, to look at beyond the game log positional finish. And I say that as somebody who I know I bring that up a lot, you know. And again, I think Etien is a good example of that. He's RB20 in the rest of season rankings. That definitely feels wrong to me. Again, it's. The position is not looking that strong with all of these injuries and things like that. Like at a certain point you have to start ranking players who have, have given you something this season. I mean, I'll just say like back to back, it's ETN and Kenneth Walker. I would rather have Walker rest of the season for sure. And he's one spot behind etn. The other names behind him, Dowdle A, Marion Hampton. Like if you really believe that he's going to come back healthy in a few weeks. David Montgomery, Tyrone Tracy, who I think is probably a better sell candidate than a buy candidate, but is somebody that, you know, there's interest in at the moment with Scatter Boo's injury. Bill Merritt, Jordan Mason, Raj Stevenson, Alvin Camara. Like, these are the names that are behind him. So it's not like you're, you know, I, I'm not saying go sprint and go buy all those names instead, but RB20 does feel too high for ETN. Walker is the big one that I would definitely switch the others. It's like I don't know what you do, but 20 feels too high.
- [29:23]
B
He's in a tough spot where you don't feel great about really any of those running backs. So he is there because it's okay. He is still the starting running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars and he's not really in this committee. But what happens after this week? Right? Where do you think his ranking is going to go? I think he's going to go up and he's just going to have this monster game against the Raiders. Tutin's gonna not be involved at all. Or do we come out and say, oh, Tootin has a much bigger role. He also looks really explosive. ETN is now going back to just really being that pass catcher out of the backfield. So that's kind of where I'm trying to get ahead of it with etn. So again, like, the matchup's not terrible this week. He'll be a top 24 ranked running back in the rankings and he's probably someone you can probably still start this week. But I'm just trying to get ahead of potential usage change in this backfield.
- [30:08]
A
I'd be interested. You could maybe get more for ETN based on name value, but if you can't, just given the nature of your league, I'd be interested in trading him for like multiple, not lottery tickets, but like kind of home run swings. Like, I would trade him for like Videl and RJ Harvey or Trey Benson or Trayvon Henderson. Like, like that. Not for depth, but for the more bites at the apple you have, the better chance that you're going to hit on one of them. Like maybe a Marian Hampton's injury lingers and Videl ends up being like a real league winner down the stretch. You know, maybe Harvey does eventually take over the backfield. If Dobbins gets hurt, you make Trey Benson. We were really excited before he got hurt. Maybe he comes back healthy. Trayvon Henderson looked better this week. Like, maybe in the second half he does take. Like, if you can get multiple swings at that again, I, I would be, I would be considering moving Etienne for, for something like that. Even if that, again of the opposite, what we talked about in the buys segment, if that's a value hit, I'm okay with that.
- [31:01]
B
Yeah, Somebody in the Discord asked me, beel, etn, Rico, Dowdle, like those types of players who you want rest of season. I just said Videl because, hey, this guy's an RV1 right now. Like, like, I'll just say to that guy, take the guy that sees 75%.
- [31:16]
A
Of his dangerous game. Just assuming like Omarion Hampton is going to be 100% healthy when we expect him to be and he's going to take the game like, yeah, that totally could happen. I like Hampton, obviously, but. But I wouldn't just assume it if you're taking swings on upside.
- [31:31]
B
Yeah. And I guess I'm not so bullish on any of those other guys outlooks rest of season. So what if Chuba Hubbard stays healthy all year, then it's just going to be committee and then what if Tutin has a bigger role like I kind of think might happen with etn, then I don't feel great about having ETN on my roster rest of season. So going back to that phrase, we talk about what the burden hand versus the bird in the bush is that. Is that the phrase? Whatever it is, I know Vidal is going to be a good running back to have right now.
- [31:56]
A
So one bird in the hand is. Is worth two in the bush. And yes, I think you've kind of botched that most of the times.
- [32:02]
B
Every single time. Death taxes in me botching that.
- [32:06]
A
I think if you just say bird in the hand, people will get it and you don't need to say the whole thing.
- [32:10]
B
Appreciate that.
- [32:12]
A
Speaking of Chuba Hubbard, he's your other running back to sell here.
- [32:16]
B
It's over for this for Chuba Hubbard. What we've seen through two weeks is Rico Dowdles basically run circles around him as the more efficient running back. And Dowdo really got the short end of the stick in this last game where they're doing the same thing where they're switching off every single drive. And on one of Rico Dowdles drives in the second half, Andy Dalton fumbles the ball away. And then in the next drive, it goes back to Chuba Hubbard. So Rico Donald missed out on a whole opera. And then of course that's like a really long drive that lines up scoring on that drive. So that's why the snaps are so skewed heavily in front of Chuba Hubbard. 59 of the snaps, 12 carries, which is superior both to Daddle, even though Dowdle was the guy that was more efficient. So I do think Hubbard is trying to knock off some of the rust that he had from missing time with his injury. But the bigger picture here with the Panthers is their offensive line got eviscerated by injuries. They lost three starters last week, and one of them is definitely out indefinitely with an Achilles injury. So what. What was once viewed as their strength offensively, like we're going to run the football between the tackles. I don't know if that's the case anymore. So Hubbard scored. I want him off my roster. This isn't even necessarily a sell high because I don't think that Hubbard is really valued, like, so supremely high. But I just. You got to get rid of them because I don't think that this is going to get better for him anytime soon. So Hubbard, to me is a sell. Just get him off your roster.
- [33:44]
A
A sell at any cost. Yeah, I don't disagree. I mean, he's plummeted in the rest of season rankings. Like, find somebody who just really needs running back help because they've taken injuries and see what you can get.
- [33:56]
B
I would rather have a se. Just give me a Seahawks running back if I can, like flip him for Charbonnet or like Hubbard plus a receiver for Charbonne. Just. At least I'll take the committee on a running. On a team that's actually good. Right. Like, that's kind of how I'm viewing the situation where, yes, I will take on another annoying backfield split, but at least if it's one that I think will have more touchdown opportunities and it's not playing behind an injured offensive line, I think that's the way to approach it. I think you got to be creative again, if you have Hubbard, you got to be creative with some of these trades. Think outside the box. I just don't think that he's going to burn you if you just try to move, even if it's for less than his quote unquote market value.
- [34:35]
A
Rather than do our buy, sell and hold trios, we're going to try something, I would say new. It's what we wanted to do at the beginning of the year. We weren't getting a ton of audience questions for trades early on, so we decided to kind of go in a different direction to wrap these shows. Now that we're closer to the trade deadline, people kind of have a better sense of their teams. We do want to talk a little bit more real audience trades. So, um, please send those in for the next few weeks while we continue this show. Prior to the fantasy trade deadline, we're going to start doing these to wrap up the shows here. As long as we're getting questions. So we've got some running back questions here from the audience. These come from both Discord, so if you. You can drop questions into Erickson's AMA channel or I'll be posting tweets, you can go ahead and tweet at us as well for these Some of these come from Twitter. Some of these are coming from Discord. We'll move through them pretty quickly because we went a little long on that episode. Erickson, first question here. What do you think of trading Chase Brown and Derrick Henry to get Jameer Gibbs?
- [35:25]
B
I really like this trade. I think it's talking about what we discussed with Josh Jacobs. Now, it's to a higher extent, I think, because you are cha. You are trading two pretty solid assets, or I would say above average assets with Chase Brown and specifically with Derrick Henry. But you're getting the best running back in the deal, which I think is Jameer Gibbs. They're coming off their bye week. Gibbs has kind of been unlocked as a bigger part of this offense. We're not really seeing it be as much of a split between him and Dave Montgomery. It's really more of the Gibbs show. I really like Detroit's schedule. Rest of season, they don't have a lot of outdoor games. Rest of the rest of the way, a lot of their games are they're at home or on the road, also indoors. So the fast track is where Gibbs plays at his best. So I like getting the elite player here. And I will say, the thing with Derrick Henry, although the schedule right now is really, really good for him, his week 16 and 17, it ends harder.
- [36:15]
A
Yeah, is.
- [36:16]
B
Is not great. It's tough, especially for a player like Henry, who we know doesn't get a lot of involvement in the passing game. I mean, week 16 against Green Bay, I mean, with Lamar Jackson, it's always like, you're not really projecting them to be in trailing game scripts. But Green Bay and New England are both good run defenses, which puts Derek Henry in a tough spot if he doesn't score a touchdown. Now, it doesn't matter as much with Lamar as the quarterback. And obviously Derek Henry's going to smash, like, the next couple weeks with some of these layups that he has, especially facing the Bengals twice, which the guy's gonna score maybe enough points to get you all the way to week 16 anyway, so you're not gonna really care. But that being said, we do need to win Week 16 and 17 to get the championship, and I think Gibbs will be a bigger part of that.
- [37:01]
A
I would do this, but I want to be clear that I would only do this for one of those top four, like, big running backs. Taylor, Robinson, McCaffrey, Gibbs. Like, I wouldn't. I don't want this to come across like, oh, you should sell Derrick Henry and package him to move up. Like, if it's one of those four. Yes. That is worth it to me. I wouldn't move up like James Cook is two spots higher in our rest of season rankings. I wouldn't do this deal for James Cook. Right. It would need to be a guy like Gibbs that gets me to do it. Next question here in half ppr. This is a lot of names. Sending Ashton Genty, Brock Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr. To receive Bijan Robinson, Kyle Menungai and Tez Johnson. And I did look at his roster because this was sent in on discord because he's getting rid of Brock Bowers. He does also have Trey McBride so he will be okay at tight end getting rid of brock Bowers with McBride but sending Genti Bowers and Brian Thomas Jr receiving Bijan Menungi and Tez Johnson.
- [37:52]
B
Did this person start their draft with Ashton Genti, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride?
- [37:58]
A
Maybe it's Dynasty and they just didn't tell us it was dynasty. I don't know.
- [38:01]
B
Regardless, yeah, you got to make this move. I actually thought about putting B. John Robinson as my bio running back. I thought that I would be ridiculed though by saying, oh, you can't.
- [38:10]
A
You would have been. I would have ridiculed you because I.
- [38:13]
B
Think, I thought it just, it just seems like the most obvious, like layup spot. This guy just totally duds out against the worst run defense in the NFL. Of course he's going to bounce back the Falcons. If you've watched the Falcons at any point this year, you know, they just lay turds sometimes. They just, they just don't show up.
- [38:29]
A
I would not do this if I didn't have Trey McBride. I think giving up Bowers along with, you know, the upside of Thomas and what, what Genti can maybe be in the second half is too much. But the fact that you have McBride, like, I do think this makes it a win. Like, yes, I think you're probably overpaying in value, but it still makes your team.
- [38:43]
B
Yeah, yeah, 100%. And again, again, I, I didn't bring Bijan because I feel like it's super obvious. But you never know. If you're watching this right now, go send a trade off for Vision Robinson. Maybe people are pissed after two weeks of him being bad. Just give it a shot. The worst thing you can say is no.
- [38:58]
A
Next one. Woody Marks, Jordan Mason, Quenton Johnston and Rico Dowdle and George Kittle for Jameer Gibbs. Again, that's Marks, Mason, Johnston, Dowdle and Kittle for Jameer Gibbs.
- [39:10]
B
Yeah. So these ones are always Tough because it's really not a five for one trade because the other team opens up roster spots and then can add a bunch of players. So you always kind of have to factor that in mind. But in most cases you still want to get the elite player. Unless this player is just totally depleting all of their depth and there really is no one else on the wave wire, then I would probably reconsider. But just based on what we have, there's no one else that you're getting rid of that. I'm thinking, dude, you can't get off of X Player. Like there are problems with all these guys where even if this other manager is getting those players, how helpful will half these guys even be when push comes to shove, Whether it's Mason, whether it's Dowdle, you know Kittle is a strong tight end piece. But if you have another tight end that's starting, clearly you've had a tight end with Kittle missing so much time. So yeah, going back to the theme of the show with running backs is get the elite guys. So I'm willing to pay. What is it? You, you. You pay ponies for a horse? Is that the expression?
- [40:09]
A
Yeah, that one. I don't know.
- [40:10]
B
Oh come on.
- [40:12]
A
I can't help you there. You know, killing a bird with two stones, you know, one of the hand, two in the bush. I can help you. I don't know this ponies for horse one. So I can't, I can't weigh in on that. We've got, we've got one more question here. This one comes from X slash Twitter. Hey, fantasy bros. I sit at 8th place with a 500 record and the second lowest total points by a significant margin. Should I trade Judkins for Dobbins or bank on Judkins for rest of season with the easier schedule? I am thinking if I don't win out then I. I won't read what he said cause it's a family show but that. Let's just say I will not make the playoffs. So would you trade Judkins for Dobbins eighth place? He's 500 record, second lowest total points.
- [40:56]
B
Yeah, I think that if you need to start spitting out wins right now.
- [40:59]
A
I think that it's what we talked about. Like your. Your trading strategy should be dependent on your record and your playoff outlook.
- [41:06]
B
That being said, Dobbins is also playing the Texans this week which is a brutal spot. I, I think I'd rather trade judge for something else than. Than Dobbins. I think that might be my best advice because I mean obviously Judkins is going to help you this week because he's on a buy. He's also injured, which is also problematic for his rest of season. Maybe it's you get Dobbins and you try to flip Dobbins for something else that can help you more this week. And again, maybe I'm overvaluing this one matchup against the Texans. Again, Dobbins still skills could still score a touchdown and not be a total zero, but I would maybe float Judkins out with some for other running backs as well. Wouldn't just pigeonhole yourself to two Dobbins.
- [41:49]
A
Don't forget about our weekly trade live stream on our YouTube channel where you can come and ask your specific Fantasy Trade questions. We'll be with you every Wednesday at 3pm Eastern. For those listening on the podcast, just go to YouTube.com fantasypros subscribe and click the bell to be notified of all of our weekly live streams. For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in to our Running Backs buys and sells. Be sure to check out part two both on YouTube and wherever. Get your audio for the wide receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends. Thanks for tuning in. See you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros Wings beers, everyone hyping up their recent trades. But then the bill shows up plus that league buy in and suddenly half the table is checking their matchups instead of their wallets. That's when the Klarna card makes the play. One swipe and you're in control. Pay now if you want it cleared, or use the Pay later feature if that works better. No stress, just options. Because when Sunday night chaos hits, you don't need excuses. You need the Klarna card. Learn more@klarna.com debit flex card pay later plans issued by Web bank deposits in your balance account are held at WebBank member FDIC anywhere visa is accepted. Certain merchant product good and service restrictions apply. Some merchants do not accept virtual cards, physical card only included with a paid Klarna membership plan.
- [43:42]
C
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- [44:15]
B
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- [44:40]
A
This is an iHeart podcast.