Exclusive Interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; What’s Next on the War in Iran

Summary

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Fareed Zakaria GPS: Exclusive Interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; What’s Next on the War in Iran (March 15, 2026)

Episode Overview

This episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS delves deeply into two major ongoing international crises: the war in Iran and its global implications, and Ukraine’s protracted struggle against Russian aggression. The show’s centerpiece is a candid, in-depth interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, discussing the direct and indirect impacts of the Iran war on Ukraine, defense cooperation, and progress on the battlefield. The episode then moves to a panel analysis of the evolving war in Iran, focusing on Iranian strategy, regional dynamics, and economic shocks, before ending with an extensive segment on the implications of the current energy crisis.

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Main Segments and Key Insights

1. Zakaria’s Opening Monologue: Lessons of Overextension (03:32–08:24)

• Parallel with British History: Zakaria draws a compelling historical analogy between the current U.S. intervention in the Middle East and the British Empire's overreach a century ago, cautioning against endless peripheral conflicts that sap national strength:

  "Grand strategy is about prioritizing finite resources. The US does not possess infinite political capital, bandwidth, military capacity, or economic resilience." (07:32)

• Strategic Warning: Zakaria argues the U.S. is at risk of exhausting itself by repeatedly intervening in the Middle East, comparing these involvements to those that hastened Britain’s decline.

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2. Exclusive Interview: President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine (08:24–14:44, 16:32–22:08)

Impact of the Iran War on Ukraine (08:28–09:36)

• Zelensky voices concerns that the war in Iran is diverting Western attention and critical air defense resources away from Ukraine:

  "We have big risks... we can have deficit with air defense... after such difficult winter, such massive attacks, using Iranian shaheeds... if the war will continue, of course we will have deal with these challenges and the challenges will only increase." (08:50)

Russia-Iran Intelligence Cooperation (09:36–11:22)

• Zelensky affirms Ukrainian intelligence has evidence of Russia sharing both drones and intelligence with Iran, impacting U.S. and allied positions in the Middle East:

  "Russia gave drones already... They gave them... Iranian regime used against American bases... My intelligence told me that they share information intelligence with Iranian regime, they help them." (09:57)

Ukraine Assisting Middle East Allies (11:22–14:44)

• Ukraine, now an expert in anti-drone warfare, is sending military advisors to Gulf states and sharing technology with the U.S.:

  "We are ready to help Americans and we are ready to help also Middle east allies... I moved three big group of experts, military experts from our army and they will help." (11:54)

• Zelensky addresses concerns about U.S. political divisions, notably former President Trump’s reluctance to support Ukraine:

  "We never got drones interceptors from the United States, so we never asked ... I want to underline that Middle east partners had more missiles for Patriots than we've got from the United States and Europeans during all the war." (13:11)

Ukrainian Battlefield Gains (16:32–18:53)

• For the first time in two years, Ukraine is reclaiming territory:

  "We began the operation at the end of the year and we got back control on 434km… It's more about people and how to destroy the big offensive operation of Russia... Russia began to lose 30, 35,000 people per month because of drones..." (17:16)

Peace Talks and Putin’s Intentions (18:53–21:09)

• Zelensky argues Russia is not sincere about negotiations, using them as a stalling tactic while gaining from current instability and oil prices:

  "Putin never wanted to stop the war. They've been afraid of steps of President Trump and pressure from America. That's why he played this game that he wants negotiation." (19:22)

• He emphasizes the need for more concerted American pressure and warns against letting the Iran conflict distract from the core challenge posed by Russia.

Memorable Closing

Zelensky’s heartfelt thanks to the U.S.:

"We count on you. And then the Americans can count on us. And we are ready in the Middle East. We are helping not because we are waiting something from American side… it's just because of our relations and we are sharing the same values." (21:12)

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3. Panel: Iran War, Regime Dynamics, and Regional Consequences (23:29–33:25)

Iran’s Strategy and Gulf State Reactions

Panelists: Karim Sajdapur (Carnegie Endowment), Lisa Anderson (Columbia University)

• Iran’s “Hostage” Tactics: Sajdapur explains Iran is trying to leverage global energy supply and divide U.S. opinion by raising oil prices:

  "This is a regime which came to power in 1979 by taking American diplomats hostage, and they've now taken the global economy hostage." (23:29)

• Gulf States’ Response: Anderson points out the Iranian attacks have united Gulf states and increased U.S.-Israeli legitimacy—at least in the short term:

  "All of the promises that this was a stable, open, easy [place] have evaporated." (25:24)

• Rise of Mujtaba Khamenei: The panelists agree the elevation of Khamenei’s son strengthens the Revolutionary Guard’s grip, with Sajdapur predicting Khamenei will be a “transitional figure,” unlikely to stabilize the regime in the long term:

  "He didn't once use the word modernity. He used the word martyrdom and resistance…" (26:03)

Prospects for Regime Change or Negotiation

• Sajdapur is skeptical of popular revolt under foreign bombing, highlighting the regime’s resilience thanks to a devoted minority:

  "For dictatorships to survive, you don't worry about the breadth of your support. You need the ruthless devotion of a small minority." (30:31)

• Anderson describes Trump’s difficult strategic choices, given divergent interests among the U.S., Israel, and Gulf allies:

  "The problem for Washington is really how you work with the, the allies, obviously the Israelis, and to some extent the Gulf states, and try and figure out a way that means you can tamp this down without giving the opportunity for the Iranian regime to say they all chickened out." (32:11)

• Sajdapur cites Kissinger’s famous maxim:

  "When a great power is fighting a guerrilla fighter, the great power loses by not winning and the guerrilla fighter wins by not losing." (32:52)

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4. Energy Crisis: Global Shockwaves of the Iran War (34:29–40:41)

Guest: Jason Bordoff (Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy)

• Bordoff details the unprecedented disruption to world oil and energy markets, noting that 20% of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, now highly unstable:

  "There is no policy response large enough to deal with a loss of oil supply this large." (34:29)

• Oil prices are surging despite massive strategic stock releases; Russia is profiting, now getting an extra estimated $150 million/day (36:07). China is positioned both to suffer and to capitalize, having built strategic reserves and supply chains for renewables (36:41).

• If key infrastructures like Kharg Island are attacked, prices could soar to $200/barrel:

  "If we see an attack on Kharg island and the Iranians retaliate with an attack on a key Saudi facility like abk, then you have damage that could take months to repair." (39:17)

• Zakaria and Bordoff discuss whether this crisis could finally push global economies to diversify away from fossil fuels:

  "Energy security can be a much more powerful driver to make governments move than climate can." (40:02)

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Zakaria on U.S. Strategy:

  "Every airstrike on Tehran, every anti-drone interceptor shot over the Persian Gulf... is energy diverted from the true tectonic challenges defining the 21st century." (07:54)

• Zelensky on Mutual Dependence:

  "We count on you, and Americans can count on us." (01:02 and 21:12)

• Sajdapur’s Iran Analysis:

  "They've now taken the global economy hostage...spiking the price of oil and asking Americans...how on earth have we gotten into another conflict in this region?" (23:29)

• Bordoff on Energy Realities:

  "There is no policy response large enough to deal with a loss of oil supply this large." (34:29)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening Monologue, Historical Parallel: 03:32–08:24
• Exclusive Zelensky Interview:
  • Iran War’s Impact: 08:28–09:36
  • Russia-Iran Cooperation: 09:36–11:22
  • Ukraine Aiding Gulf & U.S.: 11:22–14:44
  • Ukrainian Gains, Russian Losses: 16:32–18:53
  • Peace Talks & Geopolitics: 18:53–21:09
  • Closing Remarks: 21:12–22:08
• Panel Discussion (Iran War, Regime, Region): 23:29–33:25
• Energy Crisis Analysis: 34:29–40:41

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Conclusion

This episode effectively bridges first-hand insights from Ukraine’s frontlines, macro-geopolitical strategy, and immediate economic repercussions of the Iran conflict. Zelensky’s straight talk and partnership-centered appeals are juxtaposed with sober historical and strategic analysis from Zakaria and his panel. The consensus: the Middle East’s war is not just a regional conflict, but a global inflection point—testing alliances, great power priorities, and the ability of open societies to sustain both their core and their commitments on the periphery.

Transcript

[Karim Sajdapur]

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[Fareed Zakaria]

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[Fareed Zakaria]

This is GPS, the global public Square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and around the world. I'm Fareed Zakaria coming to you live from New York. Today on the program, as America, Israel and the Gulf states struggle to defend against attacks by Iranian shahid drones, I have an exclusive interview with a leader whose country has extensive experience defending itself from them, Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

We count on you, and Americans can count on us.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Then Iran elevated a new Supreme Leader, the son of the former supreme Leader. I have a great panel to discuss what to expect from Mujtaba Khamenei. Finally, this war has triggered one of the worst oil shocks in decades. But could oil really reach $200 a barrel? I will ask an expert, but first, here's my take. For around 15 years, many American leaders, including all three presidents in that period, have believed that the country was too deeply entangled in trying to reorder the societies of the Middle East. They felt the more pressing challenges were rebuilding America's industrial base at home and confronting the rise of China. Yet here, America is once again fighting a war to reorder a society in the greater Middle East. And like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, this seems unlikely to turn out quite as its proponents hoped. Why does this keep happening? To understand the present, let's look at the past. At the only country in modern history whose global reach matched that of the United States. Britain, at the turn of the 20th century, was the world's sole superpower. The British Empire's share of global GDP reached roughly 25% in the late 19th century, about the same as the US today. And London was the world's financial capital. Britain had thwarted Napoleon's bid to rule the European continent and Russia's effort to expand more into southeastern Europe. During the Crimean War, it presided over a vast empire that spanned the globe and set the agenda for international life, much as Washington does today. Over the course of those decades, roughly from the 1880s through the 1920s, Britain found itself responding to instability, nasty regimes and power vacuums all over Asia and Africa. It sent troops and asserted control in places like Sudan and Somalia, Iraq and Jordan. These missions all seemed compelling at the time, but had the effect of keeping London distracted by an endless series of local crises in peripheral parts of the world, often at great cost. The Iraqi Rebellion of 1920 required more than 100,000 British and Indian troops and tens of millions of pounds to put down at a time when the estimated total budget for education in Britain was roughly the same as the cost of that Iraqi excursion. While British leaders passionately debated their strategy in Mesopotamia, they fundamentally neglected the real economic and technological challenge that they faced as Britain battled with tribes in the Middle east and Africa. Across the Atlantic, the United States was quietly building the most advanced industrial economy the world had ever seen. In Europe after World War I, a defeated Germany steadily rebuilt its industry and a highly mechanized military apparatus. Britain, distracted by the chaotic periphery, was being systematically surpassed at its core. The result over time was that Great Britain collapsed as the world's leading power. America today is at least as powerful as Britain ever was, but it is succumbing to some of the same imperial temptations. It responds to genuine crises. In the Middle east, it sees a logic that is political, military and moral in responding. But ultimately, grand strategy is about prioritizing finite resources. The US does not possess infinite political capital, bandwidth, military capacity, or economic resilience. Every airstrike on Tehran, every anti drone interceptor shot over the Persian Gulf, and every hour administration officials spent debating the nuances of Iranian political succession is energy diverted from the true tectonic challenges defining the 21st century. The primary indispensable role of the United States is to anchor the global system against the revisionist ambitions of Beijing and Moscow. China is not getting bogged down in Middle Eastern quagmires. It is relentlessly investing in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, solar and wind power, batteries and robots, the technologies that will determine the balance of global power. Russia remains fiercely committed to disrupting the European security architecture and undermining Western democracies through hybrid political military warfare that has proved hard to detect and even harder to defeat. But while Moscow and Beijing challenge the basic architecture of America's world order, Washington is preparing once again to spend blood and treasure policing the Middle east and trying to pick the leaders of one of its countries. History suggests that great powers often succumb to the allure of small wars precisely because they tempt the strongest nation to use its awesome military might and offer the illusion of quick political and moral victories. Unfortunately, these tactical successes rarely translate into strategic gains and more often serve as the first step toward long term exhaustion. Even if the intervention in Iran succeeds, it would require that America get deeply involved in the fate of that country. Is that ultimately where America's time and energy would be best devoted over the next decade? The lesson from Great Britain is clear. Great powers do not usually fall because they are conquered by foreign armies. They fall because they overextend themselves on the periphery while neglecting the core. Go to fareedzakharia.com for a link to my Washington Post column this week. And let's get started. One country that has played an unexpected role in the Iran war is Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the US and many Arab nations have asked Kyiv for help in fending off large scale attacks by Iranian shaheed drones. This is because Ukraine knows these weapons well. Officials in Kyiv say Russia has launched more than 57,000 Shaheed drones at Ukraine since the war began in 2022. Now Ukraine is sharing what it's learned, sending experts to the Gulf to help bring these drones down. Here is my exclusive interview with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. President Zelensky, as always, a pleasure to see you again.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Pleasure to see you again too. Hi Far East.

[Fareed Zakaria]

So tell me how worried are you that this war in Iran is going to divert Iran attention and even resources from Ukraine? After all, a lot of American made weapons were being bought by the Europeans and then given to you. Are you worried that these weapons will now all be diverted to the war in Iran?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Yeah, of course. We have big risks. I think so. And of course I think that we can have deficit with air defense, especially Park 3, Park 2 for Patriot Systems for defending our sky. And you know, after such difficult winter, such massive attacks, using Iranian shaheeds by the way, 500 per day of shaheeds and dozens of ballistic missiles. And of course for us it's a very difficult, sensitive question and, and of course if the war will continue, of course we will have deal with these challenges and the challenges will only increase.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Do you have intelligence or any information about this report that the Russians are providing Iran with intelligence, specifically providing Iran with intelligence on where American troops are, where American assets are so that the Iranians can strike and kill Americans?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

First of all, Russia gave drones already these shaheeds. They are using Iranian licenses, you know that they built and produced a lot of drones. They gave them. I have 100 facts. The day that Iranian regime used against American bases and against our Middle east in Middle East, I mean and Middle east neighbors, Iran, they used these drones. We saw intelligence shared with us some details and it was Russian details in these Iranian drones. They said the first and the second point is my intelligence told me next that they think that they share information intelligence with Iranian regime, they help them. And also they told my intelligence told me that they said if Europe and United States can help Ukraine with intelligence in this war, it means that Russia can help Iranian regime. This is their point of view on this. So its effect. And you see that it's not a big secret.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Now you have been able to do something extraordinary. You've been asking for weapons from the west, but now you are providing weapons to the Gulf states and perhaps even to America because Ukraine is very advanced in drone and anti drone warfare. Will that, will you be able to afford to continue to provide these kind of weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE and, and the US So we've

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

got messages from the United States also. I spoke with Emirates and Saudi and we spoke also with Qatar and Jordan. And we understand what does it mean at the very beginning of the war when you are under big massive attacks? We remember this and I said that we with Americans, we are partners, we are ready to help Americans and we are ready to help also Middle east allies. So we are ready to help to save the lives of civilians. And I moved three big group of experts, military experts from our army and they will help.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Do you worry though that you still have not been able to persuade President Trump? It seems to me, because he tweeted out saying if America does not have enough weapons, it's because Joe Biden gave them all to Zelensky and he compared you to P.T. barnum. It does seem that President Trump still has some anger or resentment toward Ukraine and even toward you personally.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I don't know Fareed, be honest. I'm looking just to the facts. So what Middle east countries and American bases, what they, what they need now just to be in more strong security. So they need interceptors. It's drawn in the centers this new technologies. It's our technologies. So President Biden, we are thankful to America and bipartisan support and to President Trump. But we never got drones interceptors from the United States, so we never asked. It's just new technologies. But we've got a Patriot missiles and we are thankful to America that we could get some missiles. But Also, at the same moment, I want to underline that Middle east partners had more missiles for Patriots than we've got from the United States and Europeans during all the war. They used more missile. They used more than 800 Patriot missiles during first attack, during first 24, 36 hours. So more than we had during all the monsters. But when we speak how to close the sky, I mean, we gave what we had and what our American friends they don't have or European friends they don't have. I mean, such a big system of these experts, they have more other things, very strong things, but not this. And Middle east countries asked us exactly

[Fareed Zakaria]

about this next on gps, Ukraine says it has retaken control of a portion of eastern Ukraine. I'll ask President Zelenskyy about these games when we come back.

[Michael Ian Black]

This week on THE Assignment with Me, Audie Cornish.

[Lisa Anderson]

My guest is Megan Cruise, a TikTok movie critic who's part of the up and coming world parasocial critique. She's the perfect person to talk about this year's Oscars because it's been great for films and weird for discourse.

[Michael Ian Black]

It's a lot of back and forth. Siskel and Ebert definitely like laid a

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

groundwork of what modern film discourse and

[Michael Ian Black]

criticism is now because of the Internet, it is incredibly interactive and the audience definitely feels like they are a part of it. And they do in a lot of ways drive the conversation.

[Lisa Anderson]

Listen to the Assignment with Me, Audie Cornish. Streaming now on your favorite podcast app.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

I'm CNN tech reporter Claire Duffy. This week on the podcast Terms of Service. Is the AI market a bubble waiting to burst? And if so, how should we all as individuals be thinking about our personal investments and retirement accounts? To help me answer those questions, I have Ross Mayfield here with me.

[Michael Ian Black]

He's an investment strategist for Bayard Private

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Wealth Management where he helps clients make informed investment decisions.

[Michael Ian Black]

The dot com bubble of the late 90s is the go to example, particularly for today because it's a brand new technology. This also resembles pretty closely the mid-1800s

[Fareed Zakaria]

railroad bubble, which this is my favorite bubble.

[Michael Ian Black]

Yeah, it's great, right?

[Karim Sajdapur]

Because railroads are such an old school

[Michael Ian Black]

technology, but in the 1800s, hundreds they

[Fareed Zakaria]

were the AI of their time.

[Michael Ian Black]

It was this game changing technology.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Listen to CNN's terms of service wherever you get your podcasts.

[Fareed Zakaria]

As the Iran war captures the world's attention, Ukraine has now entered its fifth year of defending itself against Russian aggression. More now of my exclusive interview with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Let me ask you about the situation in between Russia and Ukraine, because the reports that I'm hearing from the, from the ground are that Ukraine is now gaining territory for the first time in two years in the area around Zaporizhzhia. Can you tell us a little bit about this and if so, what has changed that has allowed Ukraine to now start taking back some territory from Russia for it?

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Russia prepared new big offensive operation and they wanted to begin it at the end of last year and to continue spring this year. And they prepared this operation. We, it was our counteroffensive steps, parallel steps. And so we wanted to do it not to give possibility Russia to attack us massively on the battlefield. So we began the operation at the end of the year and we got back control on 434km and it was successful. Story not only about the land, because you know that this is not about the land. It's more about people and it's more about how to destroy the big offensive operation of Russia. So, and this has been very successful. And it's all about, not only about our steps on the battlefield, it's also about our drone tactics, about our projects of, of the drone, drone operations. So Russia began to lose 30, 35, 000 people per month because of drones, because of FPVs and other drones which we use on the battlefields. It's not deep strikes. It' forces our army. So we prepared for the offensive operations, destroyed the operation and destroyed so many, so many Russian soldiers.

[Fareed Zakaria]

You mentioned recently that the Russians seem to have backed off from peace talks. The Americans suggested holding them in America. The Russians are saying they want them in Europe. Do you think this is a, is this a signal that the Russians now think maybe with the price of oil going up, maybe with America distracted in Iran, they don't need to even try to pretend that they're engaging in peace talks.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

First of all, they never want it. You know, it's my opinion. I'm sharing just my opinion. I know that my colleagues from the United States and they sometimes they have different view, but we are partners. I mean we share very openly what we think about it. So Putin never wanted to stop the war. They've been afraid of steps of President Trump and pressure from America. That's why he played this game that he wants negotiation. And I still sure that America has to make big pressure on Putin, otherwise he will not negotiate. He wants only ultimatums from us that we have to withdraw from our territory. But he will not end with this. No, no, it's not enough for him. Of Course, this situation in Iran gives him more money and the process of taking off the sanctions. This new sanctions policy, also helpful for him personally. And that's why, of course, it gives more sure to Putin that he can continue the war. And we will see. Now, we are asking our partners from the United States that we have to fix the date of trilateral meeting. We always supported this format, supported President Trump and his team. Now the American side postponed because of Iran, postponed the meeting. But if we really want to stop the war, we need to meet. We need to meet on technical groups, we need to meet on the level of leaders. We need more pressure on Russia. If we will not do these steps, yes, we will not be closer to the peace.

[Fareed Zakaria]

President Zelensky, always a pleasure to talk to you, sir. Thank you.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Thank you very much for it. Thank you. Thanks very much to American people whom. Who stay with us. And we stay with you. Yes, we count on you. And then the Americans can count on us. And we are ready in the Middle East. We are helping not, not because we are waiting something from American side. By the way, I just wanted to tell you and just to tell people because I know that these soldiers, I mean, they have family, they have, they have children or if they are very young, I mean, their children, their children for their parents. So of course we, we remember what America made for Ukrainians all these years. But it's not about money, it's not about weapon. It's just because of our relations and we are sharing the same values. That's why we wanted, we wanted just to help. So you can count on us if we can help more. We will.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Thank you again, sir. Thank you.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Thank you so much. Fareed. All the best. Good luck.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Next on gps. President Trump said this week that the war in Iran would end when, quote, I feel it in my bones, what will it actually take to end it? We'll dig into that. The war in Iran has now entered its third week, and there are at least three weeks to go, according to the Israeli Defense Forces. As for America's civil war, Donald Trump told NBC News that Iran wants to make a deal, but he's not interested because the terms aren't good enough yet. Joining me now is Karim Sajdapur, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, focusing on Iran and US Foreign policy. And Lisa Anderson, professor of international relations at Colombia and a former president of the American University in Cairo. Karim. So explain to us what Iran is thinking right now, as best you can tell, because they seem to have gone for this. Widen the war strategy Attacking a whole bunch of Arab countries, mostly in the Gulf, even places like Dubai, where a lot of Iranian money is laundered and it runs through. Is this a kind of blow it all up strategy?

[Karim Sajdapur]

I think safari, this is a regime which came to power in 1979 by taking American diplomats hostage, and they've now taken the global economy hostage. And their game is obviously to divide American public opinion, turn American public opinion against this war by spiking the price of oil and asking Americans to ask their members of Congress and President Trump, how on earth have we gotten into another conflict in this region? And destroying things is very easy. You know, these economies in the Gulf, they are spending trillions of dollars on transport and AI and other kinds of technology. And Iran has come by with $20,000 drones and threatened their existence.

[Fareed Zakaria]

So when you look at that issue, Lisa, the way in which Iran has been attacking the Gulf states, is it a miscalculation? Because it seems to me that what the Iranian strategy was will attack the Gulf states. They will run to Washington and say, stop this war. In fact, what's happened is the Gulf states have become increasingly incensed at Iran and. And are in some way giving the United States and Israel a kind of legitimacy to wage the war.

[Lisa Anderson]

I think that's true, at least in the short run. I think one of the strategies for Iran is also, of course, to keep this going for a long time. That makes it more expensive for the world, and it makes it more expensive for all of the Gulf states as well. So if it had been, as the Trump administration and the Netanyahu. Netanyahu government clearly thought it would be quick, then it was a miscalculation. But over the course of time, it doesn't seem unlikely that many of these countries will start pressuring the United States to say, you know, we've had enough.

[Fareed Zakaria]

This is too hard now because for places like Dubai, the instability is killing the entire raison d'.

[Lisa Anderson]

Etrell. Exactly. All of the promises that this was a stable, open, easy and so forth obviously have evaporated. So the oil and gas producers are unhappy and the sort of business community is unhappy. This is hard to sustain for a long time.

[Fareed Zakaria]

What do you think it tells us about Iran that Mujtaba Khamenei was appointed, elected? It feels to me like this is almost like a coup by the Revolutionary Guard. The guys with the guns are now in power. He was their candidate. What is it? If A, would you agree and B, what does it mean?

[Karim Sajdapur]

I agree 100%. The Revolutionary Guards are the main power in Iran and they have closed ranks around the son of the supreme leader. And this is a regime which has gone back to original principles. If you read the maiden speech of Mojtab al Khamenei, there was no new ideas. It wasn't he didn't once use the word modernity. He used the word martyrdom and resistance, something which a majority of Iranian society is not interested in. That's the ideology that's gotten Iran into this mess. And I don't expect Fareed, that he is going to be a powerful leader like his father who ruled for 37 years. You know, Lisa is one of the great scholars of North Africa and wonderful observation which a North African scholar made in the 14th century Ibn Khaldun, that empires are built and destroyed over three generations. First generation are the builders, second generation consolidate, third generation squander. I don't Moshebah Khamenei is a third generation leader of this Islamic republic. I don't expect he's going to be anything more than a transitional figure.

[Fareed Zakaria]

All right. We'll talk about where this conflict goes and where it could widen when we come back. TAB I Got News for your Ears, the podcast.

[Michael Ian Black]

I am your host, Michael Ian Black. If you're some cargo ship captain from Kuala Lumpur and you want America to prevail in this war, it is your patriotic duty to send your cargo ship

[Fareed Zakaria]

through the Strait of Hormuz and get sunk.

[Michael Ian Black]

Right. And get murdered.

[Karim Sajdapur]

And here's the thing, just doing your job. This is a man of his word. Donald Trump will pay for the insurance on that.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Right.

[Michael Ian Black]

Just like he paid for all the burgers for everybody last year.

[Karim Sajdapur]

That's right.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Burgers for all. Have I Got News for your Ears? Releases new episodes every Wednesday. Don't miss an episode.

[Michael Ian Black]

Follow us wherever you get your podcast. The relationship between the FBI director and the president has always been complicated. Unravel the complex dynamic in the CNN original series Standoff. The FBI Power and Paranoia premieres Sunday, March 22nd on CNN and next day on the CNN app.

[Fareed Zakaria]

And we are back with Lisa Anderson, professor of international relations at Columbia and Kareem Sajadpur, who focuses on Iran and the Middle east for the Carnegie Endowment. Lisa, you heard in the earlier segment we were talking about how Israel says we're three weeks in, but we have three weeks to go. What that means is not only will they totally destroy Iran's military capacity, they're destroying the factories where weapons are produced. They're also destroying Hezbollah root and branch. What is the Middle east going to look like? And how are the Arabs going to view Israel countries like Saudi Arabia at this moment?

[Lisa Anderson]

Well, look, I think one of the things that the region had been characterized was a sort of balancing between Iran and Israel from the point of view of the Arab countries. In the absence of Iran, Iran decimated in the way the Israelis say that they're going to be able to do, then you have an Israeli hegemony in the region which isn't, I think, exactly what people calculated. Even the Gulf countries, even the Abraham Accords members didn't particularly see the region as having only one hegemonic power or aspiring hegemonic power. So I think it's going to be very complicated because when you have Israeli officials saying they're going to do in southern Lebanon what they did in Gaza when the guns stop, if there's that kind of devastation also in Lebanon, which is in a sense not a combatant, I think there's going to be a very, you know, a sort of heart rending conversation within the Arab world about where they want to position themselves.

[Fareed Zakaria]

And if this bombing continues, Karim, is it possible that you can get some kind of weakening of the regime that then over time maybe leads to regime change? It feels to me, I find it difficult to imagine, no matter how unpopular the regime, that when a foreign power is bombing you, that the population will suddenly revolt. You know, I mean, that does tend to produce a kind of rally around the flag.

[Karim Sajdapur]

Iran is a deeply polarized society. It's not polarized 50 50, I would say it's probably polarized 20 80. I don't think the regime has more than 20% popular support. But for dictatorships to survive, you don't worry about the breadth of your support. You need the ruthless devotion of a small minority. And this regime's, the ruthless devotion of the minority in Iran has been reawakened by this. And as they say, there's no factions in foxholes. You know, it's a regime fighting for its survival. It showed last January it's willing to kill tens of thousands of people to stay in power. And I think they're going to continue to have their fingers on the trigger for the foreseeable future.

[Fareed Zakaria]

And the more that this kind of bombing devastates the economy. I mean, the thing, what I noticed about Syria was civil society is very difficult to build and to flourish in that situation. The guys with the guns usually win. Right?

[Karim Sajdapur]

You know, we know from history that revolutions tend to happen not when populations feel most destitute, but when their lives are actually starting to improve. Their expectations rise, and then those expectations are unfulfilled, what they call the J Curve theory. And in Iran now, we have a population that's been traumatized by its own regime, and now this war has devastated society. This is a snapshot of today, six months from now, it could be different. But at the moment, doesn't seem to me this is a population which is eager to mobilize again, despite the fact they hate the regime.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Lisa, do you think President Trump could declare victory and leave? What would that look like? I mean, this is the off ramp. I think so many in the business community hope he's going to take.

[Lisa Anderson]

The problem is that there are two other actors here. So he can say, we don't want to do this anymore, and the Iranians can say, well, then we won. Or he could say, we don't want to do this anymore, and the Israelis would say, well, we're not finished. So I think the problem for Washington is really how you work with the, the allies, obviously the Israelis, and to some extent the Gulf states, and try and figure out a way that means you can tamp this down without giving the opportunity for the Iranian regime to say they all chickened out.

[Fareed Zakaria]

At the end of the day, for the Iranians, survival is winning. Right?

[Karim Sajdapur]

That's the famous Kissinger quote, that when a great power is fighting a guerrilla fighter, the great power loses by not winning and the guerrilla fighter wins by not losing. For this regime, what's paramount to survival, and for them, this could be a propaganda victory. I'd just say that we all agree probably, that Trump began this as a war of choice, but now I think reopening, preventing the regime from taking the global economy hostage is now a war of necessity.

[Fareed Zakaria]

But the problem is, how do you fight it? Because the more you escalate, the more they escalate.

[Karim Sajdapur]

Yes.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Lisa Karim, pleasure to have you. Next on gps. The Iran war has sent shockwaves through the global economy, through global energy markets. Which countries are most exposed and which ones actually benefit? That's next. The largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. That was the International Energy Agency's blunt assessment this week as the war continues to fuel an escalating energy crisis. For more on what's next, I'm joined by Jason Bordoff, who served as a top energy policy official in the Obama White House. He's now the founding director of the center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Jason, you were very prescient early on. You said, this is going to be the biggest energy crisis. Oil is going to go above $100 a barrel. So I'm going to do something difficult, which is now tell you, tell me where oil prices go from here and why.

[Michael Ian Black]

Well, I'm worried we haven't seen anything yet, is the answer to your question. And I think the great interview you just did with Lisa and Karim explained the reason for that. People know the basics by now. 20% of the world's oil supply flows through the strait of Hormuz. 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, most of that is offline, has been disrupted. So that's about 15, 16 million barrels a day. We saw the largest ever release of strategic stocks from International energy agency countries, 400 million barrels. And oil prices went up the day that they did that because you can only put a few million barrels a day into the market. There is no policy response large enough to deal with a loss of oil supply this large. And I think we saw an attack on Carg island on Friday. Not the energy part, the other part. Trump went on social media yesterday and asked allies and adversaries to send warships to help reopen the Strait, suggesting we don't have a lot of other good options right now. And if you don't get the straight reopened, oil prices are just going to keep going up from here.

[Fareed Zakaria]

And it's oil is not just about gas at the pump.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Right.

[Fareed Zakaria]

I mean, we use petroleum products for everything.

[Michael Ian Black]

Oil is used in a lot of products and petrochemicals in particular. And the Strait of Hormuz is central to not just oil, but to liquefied natural gas, to fertilizer, to petrochemicals, to metals. We just saw overnight that Bahrain shut one of the largest aluminum smelters in the world. Aluminum prices have gone up about 10%.

[Fareed Zakaria]

A third of fertilizer price is up like 70%.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Yeah.

[Michael Ian Black]

And about a third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade and all the products associated with it, sulfur, urea, ammonia, those have all seen prices go up 30, 40% or more.

[Fareed Zakaria]

A lot of people say Russia is the big winner here. Would you agree?

[Michael Ian Black]

I think so. I mean, I think Putin, we're seeing estimates of about $150 million a day in additional revenue. They're selling oil that was stranded because of sanctions. They couldn't get it to market. They're getting a higher price for every barrel they sell. We may see more interest from countries like China to do business Russia and build a natural gas pipeline between the two countries. But to be clear, Russia is really constrained in its ability to increase oil production in the long term because we've really seen a lot of degradation because of sanctions and Ukrainian attacks to the Russian oil industry.

[Fareed Zakaria]

And what about China? China is the. I mean, it does import a lot of oil, but where does it sit here?

[Michael Ian Black]

Somewhere in the middle, I think. I think it is. Half of its oil imports come through the Strait of Hormuz, a third of its lng. So it is going to to feel pain with higher prices, just like we all do. But there is a way in which this crisis kind of validates the energy security strategy that China has pursued for the last 20 years. China has tried to reduce its imports of oil and gas. More of its economy is electrified. It has a strategic stockpile of one and a half billion barrels, while the US has been selling off our strategic stockpile, thinking we don't need it anymore. And if the rest of the world, like say in Europe, wants to reduce imports of oil and move toward a more electrified economy, what do they need? They need batteries, they need EVs, they need critical minerals, they need solar panels, all of which comes from China.

[Fareed Zakaria]

So we've talked about the degree to which all of this is, you know, what happens if somehow this continues? What if it does go on for three weeks? The Israelis continue to bomb and three weeks later President Trump finds an off ramp. At that point, can this all be unwound and stuff starts flowing and the price of oil and it turns out to just been a one month long disruption.

[Michael Ian Black]

It takes time. I mean, as we said before, this is everything. It's not just oil. It's LNG and petrochemicals. The global supply chains are in chaos right now. The insurance has been canceled, all the ships need to be repositioned. It's going to take months to sort of sort itself out. We've seen about 7 or 8 million barrels a day of oil supply in the Gulf that has been shut in. They have nowhere to store it anymore and they can't export it. So they stop producing. It can take couple of weeks to bring that supply back online. And then there's a question about the long term implications and whether countries around the world are going to look differently at the reliability of supply through the Strait of Hormuz and think differently about the energy choices that they might make.

[Fareed Zakaria]

President Trump has threatened to, you know, bomb Cargill. And not just the, the whole thing, you know, the energy producing. Am I right that that's kind of a hollow thread because if you do that, then oil really will go to

[Michael Ian Black]

$200 well, I think it's the reason on Friday the President said we attacked, but not the energy part. So Carg island is the critical piece of energy infrastructure for Iran. And Iran has long said if you target that, we will retaliate on other energy infrastructure in the region. And we should remember that for all of the price spike we've seen so far, energy infrastructure in the region has mostly been spared physical attack. So your question of how long this could go on, if we see an attack on Kharg island and the Iranians retaliate with an attack on a key Saudi facility like abk, then you have damage that could take months to repair.

[Fareed Zakaria]

What would it take to get oil to 150 and for it to stay there? Those kind of attacks.

[Michael Ian Black]

Those kind of attacks. And the strait remaining closed again, if you have most of that supply, say it's 15, 16 million barrels a day, a little more, a little less. There is no way to deal with a supply disruption that large. And I think oil prices, as long as the strait remain close, closed when markets open tonight and every day after, unless people see an off ramp coming, we're just going to see oil prices continue to march upward.

[Fareed Zakaria]

And is it fair to say that not just China, when every country looks at this, they're going to say we need to diversify more into solar, we need to diversify more into wind. It's become a kind of energy security argument.

[Michael Ian Black]

There's a potential for that. I don't want to overstate it. We said that after the attacks in 2022 that Europe would move away from. Mostly what they did was reduce gas use through de industrialization and buy more natural gas from the United States. But it is worth remembering that the largest reduction we ever saw in fossil fuels as a share of the economy came in the decade after the Arab oil embargo, not the decade after the Paris agreement. And energy security can be a much more powerful driver to make governments move than climate can. And that's why you might see import dependent regions like Europe move more toward electrification and then domestic sources of electricity like renewables or nuclear.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Jason Bordeaux, that is very, very interesting, smart conversation. Thank you so much.

[Michael Ian Black]

Thank you.

[Fareed Zakaria]

Thanks to all of you for being part of my program. I'll see you next week.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

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[Michael Ian Black]

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[Volodymyr Zelensky]

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[Michael Ian Black]

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[Volodymyr Zelensky]

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[Michael Ian Black]

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[Volodymyr Zelensky]

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[Michael Ian Black]

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[Volodymyr Zelensky]

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[Michael Ian Black]

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