Fareed Zakaria GPS

Episode: Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister on the Tensions Between Washington and Kyiv

Date: March 10, 2025
Host: Fareed Zakaria
Guests: Dmytro Kuleba (former Ukrainian Foreign Minister), Catherine Bennett (New York Times), Douglas Irwin (Dartmouth College)

Episode Overview

This episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS centers on the seismic changes in U.S. foreign policy—particularly the Trump administration’s decision to pause military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The episode explores how these shifts are affecting Ukraine, Europe’s security outlook, and the broader global order. Fareed speaks with former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba about reactions in Kyiv, Europe’s potential response, and the future of Western alliances. The episode also features discussions on Germany’s defense rethink, the political landscape in Europe, and a segment on the pitfalls of protectionist U.S. tariff proposals.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Policy Shift: From Ally to Transactional Partner

• [01:29–08:34] Fareed’s Monologue
  • The Trump administration has initiated a dramatic foreign policy shift—pausing critical military aid and intelligence to Ukraine, demanding a share of Ukraine’s mineral wealth as “payback,” and escalating trade wars.
  • European leaders (especially Germany’s likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz) question continued U.S. security guarantees, with some advocating for European military independence and even a “nuclear umbrella” aside from NATO.
  • Countries like Taiwan fear U.S. abandonment, which could spur global nuclear proliferation and alternatives to dollar dominance. Fareed frames these moves as “a revolution in foreign policy everywhere.”
• Notable Quote:
  • “The post-American world is now in plain sight.” — Fareed Zakaria [07:11]

2. Ukrainian Perspective: Learning to Live Without America

Initial Reaction in Ukraine

• [08:34] Fareed asks Kuleba: “What is the reaction ... about what has happened in the transformation of American policy toward Ukraine?”
• [08:34–09:02] Dmytro Kuleba:
  • “There is a great deal of frustration. There is a sense of being abandoned. There is also a feeling of … patriotism, like we have to come closer … but overall, we are learning how to live without America.”

Immediate Military Effects

• [09:02–10:38]
  • Currently, the effects of suspended U.S. aid are not fully felt, but Kuleba warns that running out of Patriot interceptors will soon leave cities and energy facilities vulnerable to Russian attack. The loss of U.S. intelligence will also degrade defense capabilities over time.
  • Quote:
    • “The moment will come when we will run out of Patriot interceptors … and we won’t be able to intercept Russian ballistic missiles hitting our energy facilities in peaceful cities.” — Dmytro Kuleba [09:51]

Oval Office Showdown: Trump vs. Zelensky

• [10:38–12:00]
  • The Oval Office clash escalated tensions, resulting in halted military support. Kuleba insists emotion was controlled in the meeting but says, “There was a moment when things went off the rail and that was a disaster, of course.”
  • Quote:
    • “What really matters is the consequence … and the immediate consequence … was the suspension of military aid and intel sharing.” — Dmytro Kuleba [11:30]

Current Battlefield Situation

• [12:00–13:34]
  • Ukrainian forces are experiencing more challenges in regions like Kursk and are holding the line elsewhere, but Kuleba emphasizes the mounting risk as European aid lags.

3. Can Europe Fill the Gap Left by the U.S.?

Europe’s Readiness

• [14:53–16:10]
  • Fareed: “Can Europe really do what the United States was doing?”
  • Kuleba: “Europe has everything but time. The sense of urgency is there. … All they have to do is just start implementing [decisions]. … Every day counts.”
  • He points out Europe’s “mixed record” and insists that further delays are not sustainable.

What Ukraine Needs Most

• [16:10–18:14]
  • The two most urgent needs—Patriot interceptors and high-level intelligence—are beyond Europe’s current capacity. While Europe can ramp up hardware production, intelligence gaps and delays are critical vulnerabilities.
  • Frustration mounts over ongoing political infighting in the EU over how to implement agreed military support.

Peace Prospects

• [18:14–19:32]
  • Trump claims he is pushing for peace, but Kuleba is blunt:
    • “When I look around, I see daily missile attacks … I see statements coming from Washington announcing another concession to Russia on Ukraine. I mean, this is not peace. This is the exposure of Ukraine to being destroyed by Russia under the slogan of bringing back peace.” — Dmytro Kuleba [18:54]

Kuleba’s Closing Perspective

• [19:32–21:30]
  • On America’s withdrawal:
    • “For a century, Europe forgot how to live without America. Now it’s time to remember those days… The biggest lesson…is that there is no one you can genuinely rely on in this world in a long term perspective…”
    • Predicts more self-sufficiency, global instability, and the growth of Chinese influence.
    • “It’s regrettable to see how America dismantles America-led world. But that’s the choice the people of America made by casting their votes. And we have to learn how to live with it.” — Dmytro Kuleba [21:05]

4. Germany’s Shift: A New Defensive Posture

Germany's Response and European Security

• [21:30–23:35] Fareed interviews Catherine Bennett:
  • The White House fallout has been “very clarifying” for Germany and Europe. Friedrich Merz’s push for defense independence—even breaking historic debt limits—signals a dramatic shift.
  • Quote:
    • “Three in four Germans are behind this … there’s buy in with the Germans.” — Catherine Bennett [23:35]
  • This transformation is unprecedented, especially given traditional German and European aversion to military build-up.

Political Risks in Europe

• [23:35–27:11]
  • Populist parties, such as Germany’s far-right AfD, pose risks to this defense turn, as they have often sided with Putin and exploit the erosion of traditional party dynamics.
  • Possibility that strengthened coalitions between mainstream parties could inadvertently bolster the opposition and populist forces.
  • Quote:
    • “Beyond that, we have to secure our democracies on the inside. … The AfD and far-right populist forces … are a big problem for Germany.” — Catherine Bennett [25:40]

5. Trump’s Tariffs: Lessons from History

• [27:13–33:57] Discussion with Prof. Douglas Irwin
  • Trump proposes tariffs rivaling pre-1940s levels, especially targeting NAFTA partners and China.
  • Long-term trend (post–World War II) has favored global trade liberalization, driving worldwide prosperity and poverty reduction.
  • Tariffs cannot replace income taxes to fund government programs—historically, tariffs now account for only about 2% of federal revenue.
  • Trade wars tend to create entrenched protectionism and are difficult to unwind—reversal can take decades.
  • Notable Quotes:
    • “It would bring [tariffs] up to levels we haven’t seen since the 1940s.” — Douglas Irwin [29:45]
    • “When tariffs go up, they can go up very quickly, but bringing them down is a very slow process.” — Douglas Irwin [33:27]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There is a great deal of frustration. … We are learning how to live without America.”
  — Dmytro Kuleba ([08:34])

• “The moment will come when we will run out of Patriot interceptors and we won’t be able to intercept Russian ballistic missiles hitting our energy facilities in peaceful cities.”
  — Dmytro Kuleba ([09:51])

• “It’s regrettable to see how America dismantles America-led world. But that’s the choice the people of America made by casting their votes.”
  — Dmytro Kuleba ([21:05])

• “The post-American world is now in plain sight.”
  — Fareed Zakaria ([07:11])

• “Three in four Germans are behind this … there’s buy in with the Germans.”
  — Catherine Bennett ([23:35])

• “It would bring [tariffs] up to levels we haven’t seen since the 1940s.”
  — Douglas Irwin ([29:45])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:29–08:34] — Fareed's "My Take": Shifting U.S. foreign policy and global implications
• [08:34–13:34] — Interview: Dmytro Kuleba on Ukraine's reaction and frontline situation
• [13:50–19:32] — Interview: Kuleba on Europe's readiness and the illusion of peace
• [19:32–21:30] — Kuleba's reflections on U.S. withdrawal and global consequences
• [21:30–27:11] — Interview: Catherine Bennett on Germany and European political dynamics
• [27:13–33:57] — Interview: Douglas Irwin on historical lessons about tariffs

Conclusion

This episode underscores a world in the grip of rapid realignment. Ukraine, once confident in Western support, now faces an existential scramble for survival. Europe, led by Germany, is forging a new, independent defense vision—fraught with political risks. Meanwhile, U.S. retreat is causing potential allies everywhere to rethink their security and economic strategies. Fareed Zakaria and his guests paint a sobering picture: a post-American order is materializing faster than most predicted, with unpredictable risks for geopolitics, global stability, and economic prosperity.