Fareed Zakaria GPS
Episode: From the World Economic Forum in Davos: Israeli President Herzog on the Ceasefire Deal
Date: January 27, 2025
Host: Fareed Zakaria
Guests: Isaac Herzog (President of Israel), Mohammad Javad Zarif (Vice President for Strategic Affairs, Iran), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Director General, World Trade Organization)
Episode Overview
Broadcasting from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Fareed Zakaria sits down for pivotal interviews on the state of Middle East conflict and global trade. Key highlights include a rare, in-depth discussion with Israeli President Isaac Herzog regarding the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire, prospects for further hostage deals, and long-term regional peace—including the question of a Palestinian state. Zakaria also hosts Iran’s Vice President Javad Zarif for a pointed conversation about Iran’s regional influence, the durability of resistance movements, and the future of nuclear diplomacy. The episode concludes with WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala weighing in on the threat of global trade wars should Donald Trump return to office.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The World Economic Forum Context & America’s Foreign Policy
- Zakaria’s Opening Take (01:03 – 07:19)
- Growing global anxiety about a possible second Trump presidency, though less panic than in 2016.
- Foreign leaders find Trump’s view of America as a “patsy” (i.e., taken advantage of by the world) perplexing.
- The global order post-1945 relied on U.S. power, generosity, and stable alliances. Trump's transactional approach risks undermining decades of goodwill and potentially stoking nationalism and protectionism.
- Quote:
“It’s a way of being that is always about a transaction rather than a relationship. America is so powerful that it’s quite possible Trump will succeed in getting these discounts ... But in doing so, he will lose the goodwill generated over decades of American foreign policy.”
— Fareed Zakaria (06:07)
2. Interview: Israeli President Isaac Herzog (Davos)
The Ceasefire, Iran, and “The Day After”
Segments at 08:12 – 15:27 and 16:48 – 20:49
- On the Current Ceasefire and Regional Dynamics:
- Israel remains at war, but the ceasefire and hostage releases are seen as “a very blessed moment.” (08:58)
- Herzog frames the core regional problem as “Iranian-instigated terror,” and asserts Iran is the organizer and backer for all regional militant proxies: Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, others.
- Urges the world not to be lulled into “an aura of optimism,” warning that Iran continues aggressive nuclear pursuits and terrorist plotting.
- Quote:
“This empire of evil in Tehran is still spending billions.... They are working day in, day out even now, rather than soul searching ... they are continuing endlessly rushing towards the bomb and planning all the time terror attacks world over and in our region.”
— Isaac Herzog (09:29)
- U.S., Sanctions, and Next Steps with Iran:
- Herzog is cautious about specifics but clear:
“Iran cannot have nuclear capabilities. And two, Iran has to stop with its proxies and this kind of axis of evil which has caused such tremendous pain.”
— Isaac Herzog (11:07)
- Herzog is cautious about specifics but clear:
- Prospects for Hostage Deal's Next Phase:
- Herzog is optimistic about entering phase two, including a further hostage-prisoner exchange, despite internal Israeli political risks:
“There is a clear potential of getting to the second phase ... But we all agree that this has to be done. We want them home. It’s top priority of the nation of Israel.”
— Isaac Herzog (12:07)
- Herzog is optimistic about entering phase two, including a further hostage-prisoner exchange, despite internal Israeli political risks:
- The Challenge of Gaza’s Future (“The Day After”):
- Herzog reiterates that Israel will not accept a Gaza led by Hamas and emphasizes the need for new security and political arrangements:
“How do we make sure that this does not recur? How do we make sure that it’s not Hamas who dictates and leads that place?”
— Isaac Herzog (12:48)
- Herzog reiterates that Israel will not accept a Gaza led by Hamas and emphasizes the need for new security and political arrangements:
- Responding to Critiques of Israel’s Military Strategy:
- When pressed about criticisms (by General Petraeus) of Israeli military strategy, Herzog points to the shock of the depth of Hamas’ tunnel and military infrastructure, arguing that Gaza had been made into an Iranian forward base.
- Quote:
“Our soldiers were shocked in the infrastructure that they found in Gaza ... In so many houses there were tunnels leading to the command and control centers of Hamas...”
— Isaac Herzog (14:11)
Palestinian Statehood, Peace with Saudi Arabia, and the Israeli Mood
Segments from 16:48 – 20:49
- On Regional Transformation and Saudi-Israeli Peace:
- Herzog envisions a grand Abrahamic peace, catalyzed by normalization with Saudi Arabia, acknowledging real diplomatic dialogue.
- Quote:
“The grand vision ... is that the children of Abraham, Muslims and Jews ... dwell together in peace in the region of their creation.”
— Isaac Herzog (17:27)
- On Political Rights of Palestinians:
- Recognizes Palestinians deserve peace and full rights, but insists that this requires “no more terror.”
“We should strive for peace and they deserve to have peace just like us. But it requires them to disseminate and understand that terror is out of the question under any circumstances.”
— Isaac Herzog (18:35)
- Recognizes Palestinians deserve peace and full rights, but insists that this requires “no more terror.”
- Regarding a Palestinian State (Two-State Solution):
- Herzog, who supported the two-state solution in the past, expresses more reservation post-October 7th, highlighting Israeli trauma and the primacy of security.
- Notable Explanation:
“I had a wake up call following October 7th ... I want to hear my neighbors say how much they object, regret, condemn...the terrible tragedy...and the fact that terror cannot be the tool to get there.”
— Isaac Herzog (19:22) - Insists there must be a “political move forward,” but withdrawal or major concessions are unrealistic without real guarantees on Israeli safety.
3. Interview: Iranian Vice President Javad Zarif
Iran’s Regional Position, Proxy Forces, and Resistance
Segments from 21:24 – 28:46
- Iran After Syria, Lebanon and Gaza Losses: Weakening, or Not?
- Zarif disputes claims of Iranian regional decline, invoking the birth of resistance forces in the early ‘80s to argue against “premature rejoicing” over the setbacks for Hamas or Hezbollah.
- Quote:
“The resistance will stay as long as the occupation stays... Resistance is not dead.... The wishes for the resistance to go away has been based on a misrepresentation, a framing by Israel...”
— Mohammad Javad Zarif (22:47) - He emphasizes that these groups aren’t direct Iranian proxies but act on their own interests—sometimes even against Iranian wishes or interests (giving the example of the October 7th attacks disrupting planned diplomacy).
- Material vs. Ideational Power:
- Zarif argues Iran’s power lies in its ability to “move people in the streets in many parts of the world”—not just material assets or proxies.
- Quote:
“The fact that Iran can in fact move people in the streets ... gives us power with or without Hezbollah.”
— Mohammad Javad Zarif (27:21)
Iranian Nuclear Program & Prospects for a New Deal
Segments from 29:40 – 34:42
- On Nuclear “Breakout” Capability:
- Zarif denies any nuclear weapons intent, attributes Western rhetoric to “Iranophobia” and frames it as a diversion to justify Israeli actions in Gaza.
“Had we wanted to build a nuclear weapon, we could have done it long time ago. ... Some people want to frame Iran as a security threat. Iranophobia, Islamophobia are tools to carry out programs like the genocide in Gaza.”
— Mohammad Javad Zarif (29:53)
- Zarif denies any nuclear weapons intent, attributes Western rhetoric to “Iranophobia” and frames it as a diversion to justify Israeli actions in Gaza.
- On the Possibility of Another Deal—Even with Trump:
- Surprising openness to a future Trump-JCPOA-style deal, suggesting that experience may produce “more serious, more focused, more realistic” American negotiating posture.
“There is always hope that people will choose rationality.... I hope that this time around a Trump 2 will be more serious, more focused, more realistic...”
— Mohammad Javad Zarif (30:57) - Argues that U.S. pressure increased Iranian nuclear capabilities without achieving strategic goals, and sanctioned Iran’s most vulnerable.
- Surprising openness to a future Trump-JCPOA-style deal, suggesting that experience may produce “more serious, more focused, more realistic” American negotiating posture.
- On Broader Regional Security Deals:
- When pressed about ceasing support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah in exchange for sanctions relief, Zarif refuses, insisting the “address” for Palestinian resistance is Israel and the occupation, not Tehran.
“The address for the resistance in the region is in Tel Aviv ... The United States and Israel for the next 50 years can push Iran. That will not resolve the Palestinian issue.” — Mohammad Javad Zarif (33:12)
- Concludes that unless a “viable Palestinian state” is established, resistance will persist—regardless of Iranian involvement.
- When pressed about ceasing support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah in exchange for sanctions relief, Zarif refuses, insisting the “address” for Palestinian resistance is Israel and the occupation, not Tehran.
4. WTO’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Looming Trade Wars
Segments from 35:38 – 39:58
- On Global Protectionism and Trump’s Proposed Tariffs:
- Describes resilience in world trade but warns of worrying fragmentation. If major economies retreat into protectionist blocs, global GDP could lose $6.7 trillion (the size of Japan and Korea combined).
- Quote:
“We don’t want to see this increased fragmentation because it’s not good for anyone.... It’s like losing the economies of Japan and Korea.”
— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (36:16)
- On China’s Trade Practices and American Tariffs:
- Advises using WTO institutions to address unfair trade, rather than retaliatory tariffs.
- Calls for calm, dialogue, and maturity rather than repeating the dangerous 1930s cycle of trade wars.
“Let’s not do any tit for tat.... We’ve seen this movie before.... I know we love reruns of old movies, but I don’t think this will be a particularly good rerun.”
— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (38:46)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (by Timestamp)
- “America is so powerful that it’s quite possible Trump will succeed in getting these discounts ... But in doing so, he will lose the goodwill generated over decades of American foreign policy.” — Fareed Zakaria (06:07)
- “This empire of evil in Tehran is still spending billions. ... They are working day in, day out even now, rather than soul searching ... planning all the time terror attacks world over and in our region.” — Isaac Herzog (09:29)
- “There is a clear potential of getting to the second phase ... But we all agree that this has to be done. We want them home. It’s top priority of the nation of Israel.” — Isaac Herzog (12:07)
- “I had a wake up call following October 7th ... I want to hear my neighbors say how much they object, regret, condemn ... the terrible tragedy ... and the fact that terror cannot be the tool to get there.” — Isaac Herzog (19:22)
- “The resistance will stay as long as the occupation stays.... Resistance is not dead. ... The wishes for the resistance to go away has been based on a misrepresentation, a framing by Israel...” — Mohammad Javad Zarif (22:47)
- “There is always hope that people will choose rationality.... I hope that this time around a Trump 2 will be more serious, more focused, more realistic...” — Mohammad Javad Zarif (30:57)
- “We don’t want to see this increased fragmentation because it’s not good for anyone.... It’s like losing the economies of Japan and Korea.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (36:16)
- “Let’s not do any tit for tat.... We’ve seen this movie before.... I know we love reruns of old movies, but I don’t think this will be a particularly good rerun.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (38:46)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Opening Remarks & US Foreign Policy Context: 01:03 – 07:19
- Herzog on Ceasefire and Regional Strategy: 08:12 – 15:27
- Herzog on Palestinian Statehood and Peace: 16:48 – 20:49
- Zarif on Iran’s Regional Position: 21:24 – 28:46
- Zarif on Nuclear Program and US Relations: 29:40 – 34:42
- Okonjo-Iweala on Global Trade Risks: 35:38 – 39:58
Conclusion
This episode delivers frank, timely assessments on diplomacy, war, and geoeconomics from leaders at the heart of world conflict and commerce. Herzog and Zarif offer diametrically opposed, but revealing, views on the roots of Middle Eastern strife and potential for peace. The WTO director general rounds off with a measured warning against the rise of trade protectionism amidst global uncertainty. For listeners seeking a nuanced, up-to-the minute understanding of diplomacy from Davos, this edition is indispensable.