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Fareed Zakaria (1:00)
This is gps, the Global Public Square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and around the world. I'm Fareed Zakaria coming to you live from New York. Today on the program, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. Outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau retaliated with 25% tariffs on many American goods. I'll talk to Christia Freeland, Canada's four former finance minister, who is a frontrunner to replace Trudeau as pm. Then what does it mean to be a Jew today after October 7, after the war in Gaza, Peter Beinart offers his perspective in a new book and here on GPS Also, artificial intelligence was atop the headlines again this week as a Chinese company announced a stunning development. I'll talk to LinkedIn co founder Reid Hoffman about the news and about how AI can actually improve all our lives. But first, here's my take. Is this a Sputnik moment? The world has reacted with astonishment to the release of a Chinese AI model from Deep Seq, which appears to be able to perform as well, in some cases better than Chad, GPT and other cutting edge models put out by US Companies. Americans had assumed that their massive lead in funding, access to high quality chips and innovation would keep them well ahead. That assumption now looks like hubris. The episode does raise big questions in some ways much bigger than the ones raised by Sputnik. Sputnik, after all, was about the Soviet government's space program versus that of the US Government. Few thought that the Soviet economy was in general more technologically advanced than America's. But Deepseek is a private Chinese company that demonstrated its stunning prowess on the cheap in the most important technology for the future. There are all sorts of questions about just how much Deep Seq's model actually cost, whether it needed to use US Models for training, and whether there was any closet Chinese government help. But given the enormous efforts that the United States has made over the last few years chip bans, export controls, etc. Deepseek has made a remarkable achievement. It suggests to me two lessons and two questions. The first lesson is that over time, open systems are likely to outperform closed systems. In AI, an open system is like Lego blocks with the instructions. A closed one is a built Lego structure with the instructions kept secret. Many have pointed out that Deepseek used Meta's open source llama model to train. It also used Quinn, a family of AI models, also open source, put out by the Chinese technology giant Alibaba. While DeepSeq is currently the best, China's big technology companies have been releasing a number of artificial intelligence models, mostly open source, that are getting better and better. If the history of technology is any guide, the ability to see the innards of these models and understand their reasoning should lead to greater and faster tech innovation than using closed models that others can't use for collaboration. Second, constraints can be useful. As Intel's former CEO Pat Gelsinger has noted, just as art sometimes flourishes in repressive environments where restrictions force artists to be creative, so also engineers often operate best under constraints. Forced to use second tier chips, Chinese engineers produce creative workarounds. That's not just true with Deepsea. In 2023, the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei released a phone with a 7 nanometer chip, a kind that had been explicitly banned by US export controls. There is some evidence that after years of sclerosis, China's chip makers have responded to American bans by becoming more innovative. In a fascinating recent interview, Liang Wenfen, the CEO of deepsea, also argues that his engineers are more motivated by doing research than making money, and seems to contrast that attitude with the one prevalent in Silicon Valley, which is all about maximizing revenue, providing cloud services, generating cash flow. Demis Hassabis, who leads Google's DeepMind and won the Nobel Prize for its scientific breakthroughs, is said to have fought to keep his team in London, far from Silicon Valley, so that they can focus on basic research. The first question that Deepseek raises is can the US Stop China from advancing along the technology frontier? Some argue that deep sea shows that export controls work. The model used many Nvidia chips that were once cutting edge. But soon China will not have access to the best chips and will suffer more from the ban. But as we've learned with rounds and rounds of global sanctions on Russia, the world economy is very large and porous. Stuff gets through. And China is not Russia. It is a vast, technologically sophisticated economy with millions of software developers and hundreds of high quality firms in the technology space. Human talent on that scale will find ways to innovate, even if the measures keep China slightly behind. The second question, what is the cost of this approach? If technology bans and export controls at best keep China behind a year, maybe just several months, is that gain worth the cost? The cost is Chinese retaliation, limiting America's access to key materials that it needs for high technology. More important, a decoupled global economy also creates a closed ecosystem in which American technology companies will not face competition from the best. Is Tesla going to innovate at the highest levels if it is not facing its strongest Chinese rival? And finally, a technology decoupling means that AI will become the central part of a new global arms race, totally unregulated and unconstrained, as the world's two largest economies hurtle towards superintelligence no holds barred, and incorporate it into all military applications, including nuclear weapons. If artificial intelligence is as revolutionary a technology as we think it might end up being, having it unleashed in every realm of human life with absolutely no guardrails points to a scary future, one far more dangerous than anything people imagined because of the Sputnik satellite. Go to CNN.com fareed for a link to my Washington Post column this week. And let's get started. Yesterday, President Trump ordered tough new tariffs on America's top three trading partners, China, Mexico, and Canada. Its northern neighbor was hit with a 25% tariff on all exports to the US except for a lower 10% rate on energy and oil. Hours later, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded with a 25% levy on many American goods, solemnly saying, quote, we didn't ask for this, unquote. Joining me now is Christa Freeland. She served as Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister under Trudeau until she resigned in December. Her move helped bring down Trudeau's premiership. She's now one of the frontrunners to replace him in upcoming party elections. Christoph Freeland, Pleasure to have you on. So Donald Trump says thank You Donald Trump says that the reason he's doing this, this is, you know, the ask and this is the justification, is the fentanyl trade, the fentanyl that is coming in from Canada and Mexico. The bizarre part about this is not a lot of fentanyl comes into the United States from Canada. I mean, I think the latest numbers we have is, you know, 43 pounds coming out of Canada and 21,000 pounds coming out of Mexico. So what you've negotiated with Donald Trump before over the NAFTA renewal, renegotiation, why is he doing this to Canada? What is the motivation? It can't really be fentanyl.
