Fareed Zakaria GPS

Episode Title: The Future of the US-Iran Relationship
Date: February 8, 2026
Host: Fareed Zakaria (CNN)
Featured Guests: Wendy Sherman, Kim Ghaddas, Arwa Damon, Vasant Narasimhan, James Manyika, Andrew McAfee

Episode Overview

This episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS explores the evolving landscape of US-Iran relations following high-stakes nuclear negotiations, with expert insights from former US negotiator Wendy Sherman and journalist Kim Ghaddas. The program also delves into the humanitarian situation in Gaza post-ceasefire and features an in-depth panel on how artificial intelligence might revolutionize healthcare and longevity.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

I. Fareed Zakaria’s “Take”: The End of Nuclear Stability

(03:35 – 08:51)

• Fareed opens by warning of an increasingly unstable global nuclear order, marked by the expiration of the last binding US-Russia arms control treaty, New START.
• Major Points:
  • Cold War Stability vs. Today: Nuclear arsenals were contained by treaties and habits. That era is over.
  • Three-Sided Nuclear Competition: China’s arsenal is growing rapidly, moving toward parity with US and Russia.
  • Arms Control Breakdowns: Russia’s arsenal is newer and more tactically diverse; China rebuffs transparency.
  • Proliferation Risk in Allies: Allies like South Korea and Japan increasingly debate their own nuclear deterrents.
  • Technological & Strategic Complexity: Nuclear weapons are more entangled with cyber and space tech, heightening risks of miscalculation.
• Notable Quote:

  “What Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, once called ‘two scorpions in a bottle’ has become three—the bottle more crowded, the scorpions less predictable.” – Fareed Zakaria (07:05)

II. US-Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations: Analysis Panel

Guest 1: Wendy Sherman (Former Lead US Negotiator, 2015 Iran Deal)
Guest 2: Kim Ghaddas (Journalist, Financial Times)
(10:15 – 20:37)

a. Current State of Negotiations

• Sherman: Current Iranian negotiator, Abbas Arachi, is extremely capable and deeply connected to Iran’s revolutionary leadership.
• US negotiators lack both his depth and experience; negotiations will be tough and slow (11:27).
• A “credible use of force” remains on the table; war is a real possibility.

b. Historical Context and Complexity

• Ghaddas: US-Iran relations have been fraught for 47 years; adding Israel elongates conflict lines through proxies (12:46).
• Recent Israeli actions have targeted Iran’s regional influence.
• Positive: Some accumulated negotiation wisdom; Negative: Path to agreement still uncertain, risk of war persists.

c. Potential Areas for Compromise

• Zakaria asks about technical tradeoffs: limiting underground uranium enrichment, restricting missile ranges (14:10).
• Sherman:
  • Compromises are conceptually possible, but politics in the US—especially with a hawkish Congress and Israeli pressure—complicate matters.
  • The right to enrich under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is contentious; stringent verification is critical.

d. Regional Arab Perspective Shift

• Zakaria: Gulf states (UAE, Saudi Arabia) are now less hawkish, warning the US against major strikes that could destabilize Iran (16:15).
• Ghaddas:
  • They fear chaos or a failed “coup de grâce” that leaves Iran’s regime more dangerous—concern is for regional stability and their own economies (16:55).
  • Ordinary Iranians are caught between international isolation, a repressive regime, and the threat of war.

e. Stability and Regime Dynamics

• Sherman:

  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guard benefits from sanctions and black markets—some level of US hostility is profitable for the regime (18:24).
  • However, growing youth disillusionment threatens regime stability; any collapse could lead to even harsher rule by the Revolutionary Guard.

• Notable Quotes:

  “I do think that it's important always to have a credible use of force on the table to put pressure on. The administration is doing that. But nonetheless, this is hard.” – Wendy Sherman (11:27) “If in fact there is war, if in fact somehow the supreme leader is taken out, it is most likely that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps...will take charge and we will see an even more repressive regime.” – Wendy Sherman (19:55)

III. Gaza Post-Ceasefire: Humanitarian Snapshot

Guest: Arwa Damon (Founder, Inara; former CNN Correspondent)
(21:51 – 25:44)

a. Living Conditions in Gaza

• Damon (Reporting from local staff contacts):

  • Children and families struggle to access nutrition; proteins are scarce, food still unaffordable for most.
  • Only meager humanitarian aid is reaching Gaza; infrastructure (sewage, hospitals) remains devastated.
  • Recent opening of Rafah border crossing was seen as a “media stunt” with minimal real medical evacuations (23:51).

• Notable Quotes:

  “Even someone like her [Inara’s program coordinator] who has a stable income struggles to be able to provide her own kids with sufficient nutrition.” – Arwa Damon (21:51) “For the majority of the population, this is very much not a ceasefire.” – Arwa Damon (22:45)

IV. Panel: Can AI Change Healthcare and Longevity?

Guests: Vasant Narasimhan (Novartis), James Manyika (Google/Alphabet), Andrew McAfee (MIT)
(28:03 – 40:00)

a. Drug Discovery and “Undruggable” Diseases

• Narasimhan: AI’s biggest promise is to solve diseases previously intractable (“undruggable targets”), accelerating medicine development in ways patients may never realize (28:03).

b. Early Detection and Diagnostics

• Manyika: AI is especially powerful for early diagnosis of overlooked diseases (e.g., diabetic retinopathy, tuberculosis), outperforming humans in some cancer detections (29:16).

c. The Patient Experience—A 2036 Vision

• Zakaria summarizes: In ten years, AI-accelerated early diagnostics could catch diseases before patients show symptoms, enabling preemptive treatment (30:17).

d. AI and Doctor-Patient Relationships

• Narasimhan: “Empathy is what creates trust...no matter how far we go with the AI-generated models, I’m skeptical we can replace that human element.” (34:40)
  • AI will augment, not replace, human professionals—personal trust is irreplaceable, especially in influencing doctor behavior.

e. Impact on Healthcare Jobs and Society

• McAfee: Fears of mass job displacement occur with every technological leap, but history shows we underestimate job creation and transformation (39:05).

  • AI will likely shift roles, increasing efficiency and quality of care.
  • Lower costs (AI counselors, agentic nurses) could increase access, possibly reallocating time toward patient care rather than paperwork.

• Notable Quotes:

  “Now swap out large language and put in large disease, large drug, large genetics model. We’re going to put different things in the large model in that middle word. And I’m excited about it.” – Andrew McAfee (31:59) “People always ask us, why do you still need 25,000 sales representatives around the world visiting doctors?...because...empathy is what creates trust.” – Vasant Narasimhan (34:40) “These tools are going to be used by innovators and entrepreneurs to do things that we literally cannot sit here and imagine what the world is going to be like 10 years hence.” – Andrew McAfee (39:24)

Memorable Moments with Timestamps

• “Two scorpions in a bottle has become three—the bottle more crowded, the scorpions less predictable.” – Zakaria (07:05)
• “President, as we all know, likes to have a quick and swift victory. That will not happen here. This is a tough negotiation.” – Sherman (11:35)
• “A strike would...leave in place a regime that is even more vengeful and ready to lash out not just at the US but also at countries in the region.” – Ghaddas (17:30)
• “For the majority of the population, this is very much not a ceasefire, nor are they really all that optimistic the next step of this so-called ceasefire is going to be implemented.” – Damon (22:45)
• “I hope a patient doesn’t even know that AI was behind what they’re seeing.… these are things we were unable to solve with traditional approaches.” – Narasimhan (28:03)
• “We finally have a toolkit in this current era of AI that's going to let us make progress on problems that we don't understand.” – McAfee (31:37)

Segment Timestamps

• Nuclear Stability and Proliferation Analysis: 03:35–08:51
• Iran Nuclear Talks Panel: 10:15–20:37
• Gaza Post-Ceasefire Report: 21:51–25:44
• AI and the Future of Healthcare Panel: 28:03–40:00

Episode Takeaway

This episode spotlights the grave uncertainty in global nuclear order, the arduous complexity of striking a new US-Iran nuclear deal, the dire living conditions under Gaza’s ceasefire, and the revolutionary but nuanced promise of AI-enabled healthcare. The tone throughout is cautious, analytical, and deeply informed, with experts urging both patience and vigilance while global systems are in flux.