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- [00:01]
Progressive Insurance Announcer
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- [00:30]
Fareed Zakaria
This is gps, the Global Public Square. Welcome to all of you in the United States and around the world. I'm Fareed Zakaria coming to you from New York today on the program. Less than three weeks into his second presidency and Donald Trump seems hell bent on shaking up American foreign policy, the national security establishment and the world. He wants America to take over.
- [00:58]
Richard Haass
I want to be a wise guy, but the Riviera of the Middle East.
- [01:02]
Fareed Zakaria
He's offered buyouts to everybody in the CIA, he's dismantling the US Agency for International Development, and he's brandished tariffs against friends and foes. We'll tackle it all with a great series of guests. Richard Haas, President Emeritus at the Council on Foreign Relations. David Miliband, the head of the International Rescue Committee. One of Europe's most important CEOs, Matthias Dofner. Also, it's been two months since the Assad regime fell to Islamic militants. Is this the new Taliban or something else? But first, here's my take. It's been a head spinning week for American foreign policy, with tariffs against Canada and Mexico dramatically announced and then suddenly postponed. USAID was gutted and President Trump said he wants the US to take over Gaza. The most revealing lens through which to look at all this might not be Donald Trump's pronouncements, but rather those of his aides and supporters. The tariff tantrum suggested that foreign leaders are becoming skilled at handling Trump. They mollify him with token concessions, allow him to declare victory, and then return to business as usual. The concessions that Mexico and Canada made were either small bore or policies that they were already pursuing. Mexico agreed to send thousands of troops to the border at the Biden administration's request and are now doing the same for Trump. In the case of Canada, Trump's own statement notes that Canada was agreeing to implement its border plan, much of which had been announced over a month ago. Some conservative commentators pointed out the obvious. In the words of a Wall Street Journal editorial, trump blinks. The Fox anchor Laura Ingraham implied that the president caved to huge negative reaction from markets, saying, I'm not too impressed about the concessions from Canada. Canadian media reactions were similar. Canada's CTV News published an article with the headline Canada Takes a stand and Donald Trump blinks. The country's satirical show 22 Minutes has a Donald Trump look alike Declaring victory I did the impossible. I made peace with Canada and ended the unjust trade war that I started. I'm signing this, this executive order. The I did not lose, but I totally won the trade war order, of course. From J.D. vance to Mike Johnson, Republicans fell over themselves to praise the stunning negotiating powers of President Trump. The Trump effect is in full force, johnson posted. At this rate of achievement, wrote Elon Musk, not only should President Donald Trump be on Mount Rushmore, I want to personally work the chisel. With the abrupt dismantling of usaid, Trump's supporters scramble to adjust Secretary of State Marco Rubio quickly blasted the agency, saying it was out of control and unresponsive. This was the same agency that he had repeatedly posted in favor of over the years, written about in his book with pride and admiration, and recently recommended funding increases to President Biden. The pattern is now familiar and was followed after Trump's Gaza announcement. Those who had long supported Trump's determination to end America's military interventions cheered when he announced he would take over Gaza, send in troops if necessary, displace 2 million Palestinians to neighboring countries and stay in Gaza for long term ownership. Kayleigh McEnany responded with this on Fox.
- [05:04]
Claire Duffy
News, President Trump is playing four dimensional chess. You all are playing checkers.
- [05:10]
Fareed Zakaria
Later that day, Trump officials began walking back key aspects of the president's plan, as did Trump himself. If you don't understand all this, you haven't played four dimensional chess. Donald Trump's White House is now a court and his courtiers scurry around, aware that the mercurial monarch might change his mind at any time. TikTok is terrible can suddenly become TikTok is great and they need to pivot quickly. It reminds one of the court of Henry viii, the monarch who went from being the greatest defender of the Catholic Church to a vicious opponent because he wanted a divorce that the Pope would not sanction. One man who refused to play the game, Sir Thomas More, had his head chopped off. The reason Trump forces aides and supporters to say things that they know are false is to enforce a regime in which loyalty is paramount, overriding facts, overriding your long held convictions. Now this might seem like an amusing spectacle, but there is a real cost. In the case of usaid, it will translate into death and despair for millions of the poorest people on the planet. On trade, it remains a mystery as to why Trump singled out Canada in the 2024 fiscal year, less than 10% of migrant encounters happened at the Canadian border, and just 0.2% of fentanyl seizures occurred there. America runs a smaller trade deficit with Canada than with China or Vietnam. In fact, if you put aside Canadian crude oil, the US Sells more to Canada than it buys from it. But the effect is clear for Canada. The U.S. is turning into an undependable ally, and it will try to lessen its reliance on America and search for new markets and friends from Britain to China. The largest effect, though, is on American democracy. The scholar Francis Fukuyama has noted that the history of modern government has been a steady movement away from patrimonial rule, the rule of a single strongman to benefit his family and friends, towards rule by institutions and rules and norms. He notes that in the United States now we are seeing the return to patrimonial rule. As citizens, freely debating laws are replaced by supplicants begging the king to favor their interests. Go to CNN.com fareed for a link to my Washington Post column this week. And let's get Joining me now to talk about Trump, America and the world is Richard Haass. He is the president emeritus at the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior counselor at Centerview Partners. So, Richard, let's start with Gaza. You know that region very well. What do you think? You know, there are a lot of people who say, well, this, this is out of the box, thinking maybe it, it stirs things up. What do you think Trump's proposal in Gaza has done on the ground?
- [08:27]
Richard Haass
It's out of the box, but doesn't mean it's better just because the box isn't working. There's been policy failures over the years. I think on the ground, Fareed probably plays into Hamas hands. They can say, look, there's no chance of any compromise working. We write all along to be maximalists for the Israeli right. This is what, a gift from heaven? This is manna from heaven. Their whole policy is to deny Palestinian nationalism. Transfer of people out of Gaza is for them the perfect precedent, because what they really want is transfer of 3 million more Palestinians out of the west bank, or what they call Judea and Samaria. Plus, it shows freed even more worrisome if things get violent enough, it creates conditions which some will then point to and say we therefore need to transfer. What does that do? It incentivizes the dynamic on the west bank to become more and more violent. So Palestinians will get more radical, Israeli settlers and defense forces will get more combative. This is not a good Dynamic.
- [09:21]
Fareed Zakaria
So it encourages the radicals on both sides.
- [09:23]
Richard Haass
Absolutely, absolutely.
- [09:24]
Fareed Zakaria
And what do you think Trump was thinking? I mean, you've talked to him. What's going on?
- [09:31]
Richard Haass
My own sense is he comes from a world of deals and you can always sprinkle in new incentives. Oh, if this doesn't work, what about this? What about that? What I think he's missing from the world of real estate is this is not something that can be easily bought off. What are the two most powerful things? You know, you and I have spent a lot of time talking about the Middle East. One is nationalism. Virtually everyone in the Middle east coming out of World War II wanted a state of their own. Zionism was getting a state of their own for the Jews, Palestinians and the Kurds have been denied it. This denies it and kills off the chance. Second of all, it reinforces humiliation. And what did we learn around 9, 11 and other times, humiliation is a dangerously powerful human motivator. So I think this is actually not only going to buy things off, but rather it's going to inflame the situation.
- [10:16]
Fareed Zakaria
You can't tell a Palestinian family, you know, I'll build you a nicer house in Egypt. What they want is their own country.
- [10:24]
Richard Haass
100%. Man cannot live by bread alone. The idea that there's going to be a financial sop put forward that's going to assuage the desire for a country of their own is simply preposterous.
- [10:36]
Fareed Zakaria
What else are you noticing in this? It's been three weeks. The fight with Canada, the fight with Mexico is there. You know, what's the broader implication?
- [10:48]
Richard Haass
One is being a friend buys you nothing. It's almost like everyone's equal. In some ways. It's worse to be a friend because you have more connections that can then be leveraged. We can threaten your security dependence. We can threaten our trade or investment. The other thing that I notice as someone who's worked for multiple presidents, is the lack of anything resembling a serious policymaking process. There ought not to be surprises. You never want to send a president out there to propose something and someone says, well, hold it. Did you think about this and say, take the Gaza thing again. What about the cost? What about troops? What about Palestinian reactions?
- [11:22]
Fareed Zakaria
And you can see it was unthought through because he himself walked back half.
- [11:25]
Richard Haass
Of the within 24 hours. That's what a policy process is meant to do, to anticipate. How's everyone going to react? What's the context? What are the implementation concerns? It may be what seems to be a good idea but then when you really put it under a microscope, not so good. And that's what we're seeing is does not exist in the Trump administration on tariffs. We saw it. You put them on, you take them off. We see it now with Gaza. There's a haphazard quality to this and a shifting number of players, special envoys here and there. This is not a process that is sustainable.
- [11:59]
Fareed Zakaria
Now. You talked about the allies feeling there's no point, there's no advantage to being an ally, maybe even a cost. What can they do? Is there a realistic. I mean, what's going to happen?
- [12:09]
Richard Haass
What I think allies are going to start doing, it'll be gradual, is diversify their portfolios. A country like South Korea is going to have a much more serious debate about nuclear weapons of their own. Other countries are going to say, like Colombia, we don't really want to have 4/5 of our economy dependent on access to the United States. Maybe we dial it down. Maybe by the way, we bring in China.
- [12:29]
Fareed Zakaria
The one unpredictable thing Trump has said, and he mentioned it once during the campaign, which might be a kind of good out of the box thinking, is on Iran. He seems there's something going on there where he keeps saying, I wonder if there's a deal to be had. I wonder. Which is ironic, cuz he pulled out the Iran nuclear deal. What do you think is possible?
- [12:49]
Richard Haass
That's one of the two areas, the other being Ukraine. Surprisingly tough attitudes towards Russia. I think he was surprised and disappointed that it's Putin and not Zelensky who's the obstacle to a cease fire on Ukraine, Iran. He doesn't want to use force. I think he almost like remember he went from NAFTA to the usmca. A better deal with Canada and Mexico on trade. Even though he pulled out of the 2015 deal. I think he wants now a better deal with Iran. What he calls a verifiable peaceful nuclear agreement. And I actually think there's a possibility for it. Ya Tollah is saying, I actually think this administration would be wise to press Iran and essentially set up a deal on the nuclear. You reduce, you put a ceiling, you make it verifiable. We could ease some sanctions, you won't get attacked. I actually think that's worthy, that's worthy of exploration.
- [13:33]
Fareed Zakaria
All right, on that optimistic note, we're going to end. Richard House, always a pleasure. Next on gps. President Trump's dramatic attack on USAID is not only shocking, it is life threatening for some of the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world. I'll discuss the ripple effects with David Miliband, the president of the International Rescue Committee. Next.
- [13:58]
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Claire Duffy
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Richard Haass
Can I make my sight firmer?
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Claire Duffy
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- [15:11]
Fareed Zakaria
The fight against malaria, the disbursement of HIV medications, the delivery of 500 metric tons of food in places where famine looms. These are all examples of work that has either ceased or been thrown into grave uncertainty since President Trump's decision to freeze foreign aid and all but dismantle the U.S. agency for International Development, or USAID. What will be the effect on the most vulnerable people in the world? Joining me now to discuss is David Miliband. He is the president of the International Rescue Committee and the former British Foreign Secretary. You guys spend an enormous amount of time on the ground with these vulnerable populations, people who are often near death, near starvation. Is there any way for other funds to come to them? What's going to happen to these people?
- [16:01]
David Miliband
Well, America has an incredibly proud and effective record of being a leader in global foreign aid. About 4 in $10 globally that are spent on foreign aid come from the United States. It's also been a very effective high value for money spender with real rigor against diversion of aid. Health is probably the best example. Global health half you mentioned usaid. Half of US Aid spending is on health and that's partly on life saving health care which Secretary Rubio has said he wants to keep. But it's also mapping trends in Ebola and fighting Ebola. It's clinical trials of new drugs. It's basic health centers that provide primary care. It's non communicable diseases that are such a major issue across the developing world. So there is a moral question at issue here, but there's also a strategic question which is that these investments in a connected world are part of America's strategic interest. And I think the critical point you alluded to in your introduction, every administration will do a review that makes sense. It wants to align things behind its priorities. Organizations like mine want to contribute to the review and partner in a thoughtful process. The danger now is the suspension, the freezing of all aid apart from a small number of life saving waivers. That's what creates jeopardy. And it also creates cost. Because when you tear down systems, when you sack people, when you close down offices and health centers, as everyone is now doing, it takes money as well as time to put them back together.
- [17:36]
Fareed Zakaria
The International Rescue Committee works on, you know, helping people, the most vulnerable people in the world. What has this done to you, to your organization's ability to work in those places?
- [17:49]
David Miliband
Well, we're obviously absolutely committed to keeping our mission going and we're waiting for the results of the review. What we know is that certain programs, for example around climate resilience, some programs around sexual and reproductive health, they're going to be canned in the new administration. They're not going to be supported. We are working very, very hard to raise funds to find donors who could gap fill for that. That's a tough process because it's just been going this week. What we know is that those programs offer enormous value for money. Just listen to this. $80 to help an out of school kid in northern Nigeria. I mean, that's the kind of value, $4 to deliver a shot of vaccine in East Africa. These are the figures of a highly efficient, highly effective, good investment. And that's the rallying call we're making to the US Government. Let's reform together, let's deliver more value for money together. But we're also saying to those outside the US Government, come and support these vital programs.
- [18:46]
Fareed Zakaria
When I've seen the examples, you know, they have all these examples being published on X on Twitter. Nothing. I haven't come across a single case that seemed like it was fraud or corruption. There are a lot of them which are, you know, ones that clearly the people tweeting them out disagree with. But have you seen any of anything here, you know, that's publicly been released that suggests, you know, fraud or corruption or anything like that?
- [19:13]
David Miliband
I think first thing to say, it's important to be Very rigorous and very zealous about the way in which aid money is delivered and to make sure it reaches the right people. Second point, all of the international evidence shows that it's the big prestige projects. There was a lot of work done in Afghanistan on this. It's the big prestige national projects, infrastructure projects, that are the most prone to fraud. The community based projects are actually the least prone to fraud for a very simple reason. People blow the whistle when their money is not reaching the people that it's being intended for. I know that this sector takes incredibly seriously the fight against fraud for a very simple reason. We're in it because of the mission of helping people. And it's doubly in our interest to make sure that no fraud occurs. And if ever there are allegations, they're properly investigated and stamped on.
- [20:07]
Fareed Zakaria
I mean, it's a sad day for the United States, which has been, as you say, the kind of the most generous country. It's the richest country in the world. It has also been the most generous country in the world. Do you think it changes the way the world looks at America?
- [20:20]
David Miliband
I think that we're in a really important moment. The Trump administration was elected obviously to disrupt. Some things do need disrupting. This is an area where reform and progress is essential. And I think that the world is watching and wants to see a committed, engaged America that is thoughtful and planful in the way it does its work, in the kind of public private partnership that has stood America in such good stead.
- [20:46]
Fareed Zakaria
David Miliband, pleasure to have you on.
- [20:48]
David Miliband
Thank you very much.
- [20:50]
Fareed Zakaria
Next on gps, the next target for Trump's trade wars could be the eu. When we return, I'll talk to a top European CEO who has some interesting ideas about what his continent should do. China, Canada and Mexico have all come into Trump's crosshairs on trade. And the European Union could be next. My guest has some interesting ideas about what the EU should do. Matthias Doffner is the CEO of the German media company Axel Springer, which owns many outlets such as dewelt and Politico. He has a new book called dealings with a CEO's guide to defending Democracy. Matthias, welcome. Let me ask you about the situation for Europe now. I mean, as you know, a lot of people feel like Europe is in trouble economically. The EU needs to get its act together. There have been reports like the Draghi report by Mario Draghi saying, you know, the EU is lagging behind. And now enter Donald Trump, who has talked often about how he wants to put tariffs on the European Union. How do you react to that?
- [22:02]
Matthias Dofner
Well, Fareed, let me give for a second a warrant, bigger context, and then I very precisely will answer your question. So I think democracy, the open society model, is threatened by rising autocrats and dictatorships, mainly Russia, Iran and Islamists, and most importantly, China. The conflicts, the major geopolitical challenges that we face, the Russian war on Ukraine, the Hamas war on Israel, and the potential takeover of Taiwan, have one thing in common. That's the goal, to weaken democracies and concretely to weaken the biggest democracy in the world, the United States, and more concretely, to split the United States and Europe. That is the most efficient way to weaken democracy. And I think in that context, it is important to. That we are not taking the wrong exit here. If the US And Europe would start a trade war, that would just strengthen China, if Europe and the United States could get together, have some negotiation. And Trump is a very transactional president, and I think he has a point. The EU is imposing tariffs on average of 5.5% on US goods. The US are on average only 3.3%. So there is a point to renegotiate, but it should not increase tariffs. It should lower tariffs or ideally no tariffs in order to stimulate transatlantic trade. And then we have a common case to negotiate with China. If America does it alone, because there is a misunderstanding that America first means America alone, then I think China will benefit. If America and Europe would represent not 300 million citizens, but 800 million citizens, we have a real leverage at the negotiation table in order to negotiate with China. Symmetrical trade relationships, which would be beneficial for the US and for Europe. That's, I think, the goal and not a split between America and Europe. That's what these autocrats want.
- [24:18]
Fareed Zakaria
Is it possible that Trump's kind of threat of abandonment forces the European Union to get its act together on things like structural reform, on opening up and creating a single market, for example, for technology or banking. You know, is it possible that it has the. Because the Europeans feel we're on our own, we have to, you know, absolutely.
- [24:39]
Matthias Dofner
And I think it is desperately needed. And whether it's because of Trump's policies or whether it's because we understand ourselves that we gotta change. Ronald Reagan once said, famously, the European definition of a successful economy is if a business moves, tax it. If it still moves, regulate it. If it's dead, subsidize it. That cannot be the future of Europe. Europe is totally overregulated. America has less regulation and is deregulating. The whole world is deregulating. And Europe regulates more and more. No innovation, no real growth. It's a sad case. I mean, Europe is like a sleeping beauty and it needs to wake up. And hopefully these developments, even if there are a bit more tensions, help that we will have a healthier and more successful outcome.
- [25:30]
Fareed Zakaria
What do you think of Elon Musk's support for what is often called Germany's far right party, the aft also here.
- [25:38]
Matthias Dofner
I mean, I don't know, I'm. I mean I know elon Musk for 10 years and we have a friendship relationship almost and we have have a lot of discussions. But here I think he gets it wrong, I have to say, because what he loves is disruption and he sees that disruption is necessary and that's why he likes Milei, that's why he likes Meloni, that's why he likes Trump. But the AfD in Germany is a different kind. It's a at least partly non democratic organization that is very proud. Russia, pro Putin, very pro China, very anti American, very anti capitalist, anti business. And of course parts of the party have a decent anti Semitic tone. From a far distant perspective, it may look healthy to have that disruption. But if you know more, then there is a very dangerous element in that movement.
- [26:40]
Fareed Zakaria
If you know more. Very important words in this context. Matthias Dofter, Pleasure to have you on. And it's an important book. I hope people read it.
- [26:48]
Matthias Dofner
Thank you.
- [26:49]
Fareed Zakaria
Next on GPS. Two months ago Syrian President Bashar al Assad's 24 year dictatorship fell to Islamic militants. Now a former Jihadi is running the country. We will talk about what all this means when we come back.
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- [27:38]
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- [28:09]
Fareed Zakaria
It has been two months since Islamic rebels stormed Damascus, toppling the 53 year Assad reign in a matter of days. Stunning Syrians and the world. But celebrations in the street quickly turned to deep uncertainty in the direction of the country. The rebel leader Ahmad Al Shara, the former head of Al Qaeda in Syria, is now the interim president. So just where is Syria headed? Joining me now is Ali Amalek, a Syrian American journalist and the author of the Home that Was Our A Memoir of Syria. You're just back from Syria. Tell me what your dominant impressions are.
- [28:50]
Ali Amalek
That it's a unique and monumental moment. And I say that in a value neutral way because it's loaded both negative ways and in positive ways. It's the end of something, which implies several dynamics and accounting that needs to happen. It's also the start of something and it's like a twilight moment. And it was fascinating time to be there. It was overwhelming. There's a solid 24 hours where I really didn't know what to say or how to feel. You know, I hadn't been back since 2013 that the, that's not long enough for things to be drastically different. And yet everything had changed.
- [29:24]
Fareed Zakaria
What were most people saying? Are they mostly hopeful? Are they mostly worried about the onset of another civil war?
- [29:33]
Ali Amalek
Both of those things, I think, exist at the same time. I think they're also very much in a roll up their sleeves sort of mentality because they realize there's a lot to be done and that the window to work with the new government, you know, that their willingness to also work with people will close at some point. I think it's clear. And everyone on the ground says that the new rulers were not really expecting to make it all the way to Damascus. And all of a sudden they found themselves in charge of much more territory and carrying the hopes of many more people, I think than they had, they had previously imagined. And so there is this window in which they are talking to people and civil society and normal Syrians are quite aware that that window will close and they are not going to be let out of or kept out of, you know, self determination.
- [30:19]
Fareed Zakaria
So are people talking about democracy and elections?
- [30:22]
Ali Amalek
You know, these are the metrics that we think about. I don't think that's exactly what people are talking about. They are talking about stability, they're talking about electricity, they are talking about infrastructure, they are talking about the sanctions being removed and they're talking about being included in their own governance.
- [30:39]
Fareed Zakaria
And when we talk about this new leader, the president, he's Changed his name? Has he changed his ideology? First of all, explain the name change. He had a kind of nom de guerre. He had a nom de guerre, Jalani.
- [30:51]
Ali Amalek
From the Golan Heights, which is where he is originally. His family is originally from. He's now using his real name, Ahmad Al Sharaha. And yes, there's definitely been a sartorial change. You know, everyone keeps asking me, is it sincere? And I just think, you know, you don't go to politicians for sincerity. He was a rebel leader and now he is a politician. And these are often awkward transitions. We've seen, you know, movements, as they try to transition to governance, falter.
- [31:21]
Fareed Zakaria
So what gives you hope that Syria will not descend into a kind of sectarian/islamist vs the others civil war? The way, you know, it happened in Iraq, the way it happened in Libya, the way it almost happened in Egypt. And then, you know, the army intervenes.
- [31:41]
Ali Amalek
What gives me hope is Syrians themselves. I have been talking to and reporting on Syrians since 2011, and I think the same way we are conscious of what has happened in the region and has happened in Syria, so are they. It's not that they are ignorant as to what happened on their borders in Iraq. They know what happened in Lebanon. When the idea that the civil war is over now everybody goes back to life as normal. They know that that failed. They know what happened in Libya. And we sort of have experienced our own version of Libya. And to some extent, in many ways, they are greeting 2011 in the same spirit that they're greeting 2024, that the future has arrived and they have a role to play in that future. But in those 14 years, they have become infinitely less naive.
- [32:24]
Fareed Zakaria
So the mood is hopeful and people are, at least in the cities, hoping to build a new country, hopeful and vigilant.
- [32:30]
Ali Amalek
We know exactly what the fault lines could be or the fault lines that other. That both internally and externally have been played upon by malignant actors. I think Syrians are tired of that. They want a state, they want to live, they want electricity. They want to harness the talents that other countries have taken advantage of when they've had Syrian populations and their.
- [32:50]
Fareed Zakaria
So it would be fair to say your advice to the west would be drop the sanctions, engage with Syria, try.
- [32:56]
Ali Amalek
To make this work, and listen to Syrians. Syrians haven't been silent in the last 14 years. Even in exile. They have, even as refugees. For example, they've held, using universal jurisdiction in European courts. They've held members of the regime and of ISIS accountable for their crimes. They've been speaking to, I think, you know, government is, of course, you know, the immediate interlocutors, but the Syrian people have not been silent, and it's just really a matter of are we willing to listen?
- [33:29]
Fareed Zakaria
Aliyah, pleasure to have you on.
- [33:30]
Ali Amalek
Thank you.
- [33:32]
Fareed Zakaria
Next on gps. El Salvador's president made headlines this week by offering to jail American criminals in his country's notorious prisons. What is going on? I will ask an expert. This week, El Salvador took the spotlight with a bold offer to the United States. During a visit from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, conservative President Nayib Bukele suggested his country could take in not just deported immigrants, but American criminals as well. Rubio said the US Would consider what he called a, quote, act of extraordinary friendship, despite being a plan that many experts say is illegal. Indeed, it's notable that Rubio's first trip in his new post was to Latin America, a region many believe the US has long neglected. So what to make of all this? Brian Winter is the editor in chief of America's Quarterly, which covers Latin American politics, business, and culture. So before we get to Bukele and the prison offer, why is Marco Rubio choosing Latin America as the first visit? That's always symbolically important, and he has clearly decided that he wants to send a signal.
- [34:50]
Brian Winter
I think this administration, Fareed, is more focused on Latin America than maybe any US government for the last 30 years. The reason why is they know that their big domestic policies of reducing irregular immigration, as well as cutting back on drug flows into the States and some work on China as well, depend on Latin America. And I think Secretary Rubio's choice of Latin America unusual. I mean, we haven't seen anything like this in years. For a secretary of state to go there first, I think reflects those priorities.
- [35:21]
Fareed Zakaria
And Latin America and Central America is very divided between some new rulers, Milei in Argentina, Bukele in El Salvador, who seem very populist and in some ways kind of on the right side of the, you know, the populist divide, even in the United States. And then there are others like the Colombian president, who is a kind of, you know, radical left winger, I think many people would say. Is the administration favoring one group over the other?
- [35:55]
Brian Winter
Well, there's no doubt that several governments around Latin America are happy with this increased attention from the United States. But it's also true that being an ally of the US does not necessarily protect you in this current environment. The Panamanians found that out. I mean, you have a president in Panama who's also right of center Molino very allied with the United States. And yet they were on the receiving end of these threats that President Trump made in his inaugural address about wanting to take back the Panama Canal. So it's not just about left, right. Governments all over the region are asking themselves whether being an ally of Washington, like what that really means.
- [36:35]
Fareed Zakaria
Bukele and this offer to take American prisoners. The backdrop, I think is important to remember is Trump during the campaign said some very nasty things about Bukele. Right.
- [36:48]
Brian Winter
I think that this offer of prisons is at least partly a peace offering from President Bukele to President Trump, recognizing that Trump accused him during the campaign last year of sending, you know, his criminals to the United States and that's why crime was down in El Salvador. Of course, the story's more complicated than that.
- [37:06]
Fareed Zakaria
I mean, as far as I can tell, the real story is he didn't send the criminals to the United States. He locked up, you know, vast numbers of people, including suspected criminals, criminals, you know, people who were innocent. But crime has gone down like 80% or something like that. How are things going in El Salvador? Is he a success story?
- [37:25]
Brian Winter
Look, there is frustration all over Latin America with organized crime, which is not a new issue in the region. But we've seen, according to the un, a doubling in the amount of cocaine that is being produced in the world over the last decade. That has given cartels, organized crime groups all kinds of resources and they're creating havoc in countries that they'd never really had much of a presence before, including places like Ecuador, Peru and others. And so what we see, not just in El Salvador, but across the region, is an eagerness to try those kinds of tactics. The downside is that it results in due process and other things being suspended and you end up with innocent people being put in jail, according to organizations like the Organization of American States. But that is a sacrifice that Salvadorans seem willingness to make and perhaps people in other countries as well, because as you noted, Fareed, the results are clear. Homicides are.
- [38:17]
Fareed Zakaria
Fair to say that you're, you know, looking at this landscape and this region so far, while Trump has used some strong arm tactics and the US Is so much more powerful, it is always going to, you know, win in one of those contests. The US Is focusing more on the region. It is trying to get results that are important. This doesn't seem as much of a kind of a strange mess that some of the other parts of the world. The Trump people seem to be focused on this for good reasons.
- [38:51]
Brian Winter
Well, they see again, these US domestic objectives of reducing immigration, of reducing drug flows. They believe that Latin America is key to that. It's also true that we have governments all over the region who are trying to, in some cases, imitate the deregulation, the cutting of government, the generally pro business policies that they see in the Trump administration. And with these elections that we see over the next year, year and a half, there may even be more governments in the region that end up aligned with Trump. So, you know, but again, not even they consider themselves safe. Some of them are asking questions, do we need to look more to Europe? Do we need to look more to China? Do we need to look more within our own countries to make sure that we're not at risk of being threatened by a government in the White House that's dealing with us at a transactional level?
- [39:43]
Fareed Zakaria
Brian, always a pleasure to hear from you.
- [39:45]
Brian Winter
Thank you.
- [39:47]
Fareed Zakaria
And thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. I will see you next week.
- [39:55]
Ashley Graham
This week on the Assignment with me, Audie Cornish. My guest is Larry Wilmore. He's a writer and producer who's worked on some of the most successful shows of the century. In Living Color, the Bernie Mac show, the Daily Show, Black ish, Insecure. We're just naming a few. But in his heart, he's still a comedian.
- [40:13]
Fareed Zakaria
I'm getting back into doing standup again, which I really haven't done full time in a while. So.
- [40:19]
Brian Winter
Wait.
- [40:19]
Ashley Graham
What? Wait a second. Like, you're going, you're doing open mics?
- [40:23]
Fareed Zakaria
I'm going up Saturday night. I'm gonna start working on a new hour. Yeah. So it's a little scary.
- [40:28]
Richard Haass
Audie, don't get me wrong.
- [40:30]
Ashley Graham
I can imagine. What do you think is pulling at your chest here?
- [40:34]
Fareed Zakaria
I feel like I have to say something. I can't stay silent anymore about just the world that I'm listen to.
- [40:41]
Ashley Graham
The Assignment with me, Audie Cornish. Streaming now on your favorite podcast, Apple.