Fareed Zakaria GPS (CNN Podcasts)

Episode: War in Iran Intensifies; Will Oil Prices Keep Rising?
Date: March 22, 2026

Overview

This episode addresses the rapidly evolving conflict between the United States and Iran, analyzing the military, economic, and geopolitical reverberations. Fareed Zakaria leads in-depth conversations with military intelligence experts, energy policy authorities, and regional reporters. Topics include the transformation of modern warfare (particularly with drones and AI), the economic upheaval caused by escalating oil and commodity prices, and the spillover of war into Lebanon. The show integrates expert perspectives and on-the-ground observations, painting a comprehensive picture of a crisis moment in Middle Eastern and global affairs.

Fareed’s Opening Take: The Seismic Transformation of War

[00:02 - 08:38]

Key Points

• The Era of Precise Mass in Warfare:
  Modern conflicts have shifted from reliance on expensive, highly advanced systems (like stealth bombers and Patriot missiles) to mass deployment of cheap, networked drones and cyber tools.
  • "[W]ar is being utterly transformed. … What used to require great industrial nations’ capacity can increasingly be assembled, adapted and scaled by much smaller states." (Fareed Zakaria, 00:44)
• Economics of Modern Conflict:
  Shaheed drones cost ~$35,000 vs. $4 million for a single Patriot Interceptor. Attackers spend thousands, defenders spend millions.
  • "A Shaheed type drone often costs around $35,000. A Patriot Interceptor costs about 4 million. … The attacker spends thousands, the defender spends millions." (Zakaria, 02:27)
• Integrated Technologies:
  Drones, AI, commercial satellites, resilient comms, cyber tools combine to reduce decision and action time dramatically — military supremacy is shifting toward adaptability and scale.
• Ukraine as Laboratory:
  Ukraine's fast-evolving drone industry and data-sharing with allies has made data itself a battlefield asset of immense value.
• Implications for the Future:
  The proliferation of cheap but precise systems means wars may be easier to start, harder to stop, and accessible even to non-state actors.
  • "[T]he revolution is bigger than drones. It’s really about a new military architecture. … The side that wins tomorrow’s wars may not be the one with the single best platform." (Zakaria, 03:11–05:28)

Expert Interview 1: Danny Cintrinowicz

(Former Head of Iran Branch, Israeli Military Intelligence | Senior Researcher, Institute for National Security Studies)
[08:38 – 17:53]

Main Topics

Trump's Ultimatum and Iran’s Response

• Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating attacks on infrastructure.
• Both options—striking Iran or backing down—pose significant escalatory and political risks:
  • "We don’t have good options, only bad options." (Cintrinowicz, 08:49)
  • "If President Trump would decide to implement what he threats, nothing will get open… Iran is going to retaliate." (Cintrinowicz, 10:45)
• Any U.S. escalation will likely spike global energy prices further, undermining the administration’s objectives.

No Viable “Off Ramp”

• Even if Trump declares victory and halts, Iran—fueled by a more radical leadership—won’t accept the status quo or drop its demands.
  • "If Trump will stop today... definitely they’ll continue blocking the Hormuz Straits. Goes without saying." (Cintrinowicz, 12:35)

Nuclear Risk Escalates

• The removal of Khamenei and rise of radical elements increases the risk of Iran sprinting to develop nuclear weapons:
  • "The war that's actually meant to prevent Iran from crossing the threshold actually might be the war that actually will push Iran beyond the threshold." (Cintrinowicz, 14:41)

Israeli Miscalculation

• Israeli and U.S. leaders overestimated the chance of regime collapse after killing Khamenei.
  • "You can see the trees, but you cannot see the forest. ... I don’t think that strategically we understand how the Islamic Republic is actually working." (Cintrinowicz, 16:16)
• The lack of a strategic exit plan is a direct outcome of this misreading.

Likely Outcomes

• Escalation is probable, with dire economic impacts and potential for irretrievable conflict, unless outside mediation (e.g. Oman, Qatar) creates an off-ramp.

Expert Interview 2: Edward Fishman

(Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Author: Choke: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare)
[19:22 – 24:15]

Main Topics

U.S. Paradox: Easing Sanctions in War

• The U.S. is waiving sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil to lower global prices, despite being at war with Iran.
  • "It really is a remarkable development... Iran now has gotten more sanctions relief from closing the Strait of Hormuz for a couple weeks than… for all of the nuclear concessions it made under the Iran nuclear deal." (Fishman, 19:22)
• This rewards Iran’s disruption, incentivizing further attacks on infrastructure.

Oil Price Spiral

• Actual oil sales in Asia soar to $160/barrel, far above Brent. Some experts prepare for $175/barrel scenarios.
• Markets previously wagered on Trump backing down, but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, constraining all alternatives.
  • “The reason oil prices are high is because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran. Who’s blocking the Strait of Hormuz? It’s Iran, it’s not the United States.” (Fishman, 21:19)

Russia: The Unexpected Winner

• Russia, previously pressured by sanctions, now reaps windfall profits as sanctions ease and oil prices surge.
  • "Russian oil is now selling at a Premium to Brent, $5 more. So they’re actually making around $150 million to $200 million more each day." (Fishman, 22:07)

The Ripple Effect

• Disruption isn’t limited to oil; natural gas, helium (for semiconductors), and fertilizers are affected, leading to broader global economic instability.
  • “This is like a butterfly effect times 100.” (Zakaria, 23:11)
  • “If this crisis doesn’t end soon… we could be dealing with food crises. … We still live in a deeply, deeply integrated global economy.” (Fishman, 24:07)

On the Ground: Lebanon Front

Reporter: Kim Ghattas (Beirut-based journalist, Financial Times)
[32:51 – 38:23]

Life Amid Escalation

• Israel’s campaign in Lebanon (targeting Hezbollah) has displaced over a million people, deepening humanitarian crisis amid economic collapse.
  • “That’s a lot to bear for a country where the finances, the economy have collapsed… it is heartbreaking to see people sleeping on the street, on the floor, in school, schools. The state doesn’t have much capacity to help and support, and there isn’t much aid coming…” (Ghattas, 33:32)

Public Sentiment and Government Responses

• Widespread despair; anger against both Israel (for relentless bombardment) and Hezbollah (for provoking war).
  • "There seems to be a lack of understanding in Israel that… ‘mowing the grass’ is not going to resolve the problem… There is also certainly anger at Hezbollah amongst many, including the Shia community." (Ghattas, 34:49)
• However, with ongoing attacks, no popular anti-Hezbollah movement is likely.
• Lebanese government has taken historic steps—declaring Hezbollah’s military activities outside the law, asking IRGC advisors to leave, and offering negotiations.
  • “They have declared Hezbollah’s military and security activities outside of the law. … [This] is a historic first, which the Trump administration should absolutely seize…” (Ghattas, 35:40)

Cycle of Futility and Dangers of Escalation

• Past failures to eliminate groups like Hamas and Hezbollah (they reconstitute after wars) suggest only a long-term ceasefire or armistice can stabilize the situation.
  • "What Israel is doing right now is going to breathe new life into Hezbollah, give it renewed raison d'être, especially if Israel occupies parts of southern Lebanon..." (Ghattas, 37:27)
• Strategic thinking and diplomacy are urgently needed post-military operations.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Drones and Future Warfare
  "Lots of good stuff will beat small numbers of great stuff." — Fareed Zakaria [05:21]

• On U.S. Policy Dilemmas
  "We don’t have good options, only bad options." — Danny Cintrinowicz [08:49]

• On Nuclear Escalation
  "The war that's actually meant to prevent Iran from crossing the threshold actually might be the war that actually will push Iran beyond the threshold toward a nuclear bomb." — Cintrinowicz [14:41]

• On Lebanese Suffering
  "It is heartbreaking to see people sleeping on the street, on the floor, in schools. The state doesn’t have much capacity to help and support, and there isn’t much aid coming to the country." — Kim Ghattas [33:32]

• On Economic Choke Points
  “Despite the fact that we have moved into a period of more economic fragmentation... we still live in a deeply, deeply integrated global economy.” — Edward Fishman [24:07]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Transformation of War / Drone Revolution: [00:02 – 08:38]
• Interview – Danny Cintrinowicz: Iran’s Regime and War Scenarios: [08:38 – 17:53]
• Energy War, Iran, Sanctions, and Oil with Edward Fishman: [19:22 – 24:15]
• On the Ground in Lebanon with Kim Ghattas: [32:51 – 38:23]

Tone & Style

• Analytical, urgent, grounded in expertise.
• Fareed Zakaria’s thoughtful, direct style.
• Guests provide candid, sometimes grim, assessments, focusing on nuance rather than partisanship.

Summary

Fareed Zakaria GPS’s special episode offers a clear-eyed, multifaceted assessment of how the Iran-U.S. conflict has upended military doctrine, global energy stability, and regional order. Drone swarms and AI are rewriting the rules of war; economic sanctions policy is backfiring; and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon is deepening as a proxy front. Experts express skepticism about easy solutions, warning that short-sighted actions now risk locking the world into new spirals of escalation—militarily, economically, and morally.