Fareed Zakaria GPS – War with Iran: America’s Aims, The Kurds, and the Risk of Escalation

Date: March 8, 2026
Main Theme:
A deep-dive into the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran—its objectives, strategic confusions, regional dangers, and the complex roles of actors like the Kurds, Russia, China, Gulf states, and the Pentagon’s capacity for a prolonged fight.

Host’s Opening Take: The Improvisational War

Fareed Zakaria [00:02–07:38]:

• Theme: The US and Israel are waging war against Iran without a clear or consistent strategy; Trump’s administration, in particular, has shifted goals repeatedly.
• Regime Change “By Jazz Improvisation”: Scholar Karim Sajdapur likened US policy to improvisational jazz—scattered and shifting. Trump at first called for regime overthrow, then pivoted to “just” degrading Iran’s military, then back toward regime change via Kurdish involvement, and now demands Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”
  • Quote: “The goal isn’t regime change, except when it is.” [05:05]
• Israel’s Agenda vs. America’s:
  • Israel: Clear goal—destroy the Islamic Republic, implemented with focus and intensity, including “decapitating Iran’s leadership” and “methodically destroying Iran’s police state.”
    • Cites Netanyahu calling the war “the culmination of a 40-year old dream.” [05:45]
  • US: Unclear, shifting objectives. A decapitated Iranian regime could explode into civil war—a Syria-like scenario—inviting ethnic conflicts (Kurds, Armenians, Azeris), a power vacuum, and mass instability.
    • Quote: “It’s much easier to destroy a state than to rebuild one.” [06:30]
• Key Argument:
  • For Israel, chaos in Iran may be a tolerable price for improved security; for the US and its Arab allies, regional stability is critical, and the current path risks broader destabilization.
  • Warns that without a strategic closure, “the war will reach a tipping point and no one will be able to control the spillover.” [06:59]

Segment 1: Interview with Jake Sullivan (Biden's Former National Security Adviser)

America’s Strategic Drift

Interview: Fareed Zakaria & Jake Sullivan [07:38–13:13, 14:51–20:33]

• On US Military Success and Strategic Failure

  • Jake Sullivan: Praises the US military's operational excellence but is deeply concerned about unclear objectives:
    • Quote: “The administration has not been able to say with any clarity whatsoever what the ultimate goal of this war is… shifting by the hour, by the day.” [08:10]
    • Points out the “muddle” and disconnect between tactical successes and lack of endgame strategy.

• Lessons from Venezuela—Danger of Overconfidence

  • US special forces’ rapid extraction of Maduro gave Trump “too much confidence” in surgical force.
    • Quote: “The appetite grows with the eating. President Trump saw that Maduro raid, saw what our special forces could do, looked to Iran and said, hey, let’s try to put them to use there too—but could not identify a clear set of objectives.” [09:21–10:05]
  • Raises concern over “war without thinking through strategy behind that tactical genius.” [09:00]

• Iran’s Asymmetric Response and Economic Fallout

  • Iran’s strikes disrupt global oil flow, with regional allies deeply anxious.
    • Quote: “The level of concern across the region is sky high.” [11:08]
  • US/Israel impose military pain; Iran imposes economic pain—gas prices skyrocketing—hurting Americans and global economy.

• Key Takeaway:

  • The war is a grinding contest of inflicting pain, with civilians and economies caught in the crossfire. US leaders underestimated Iran's capacity for “existential responses.”

The Russia Factor: Putin Exploits the War

[14:51–17:26]

• Russia’s Support to Iran:

  • Russia is providing intelligence to Iran to target US troops and capabilities.
    • Quote: “Russia is an adversary… actually supplying intelligence so that Iran can pinpoint locations where US service members are present.” [15:27]
  • Russia benefits: higher oil prices, increased cash flow, the US diverting air defenses from Ukraine to the Middle East, and less resistance in Ukraine.
    • “One of the big winners in all of this is Vladimir Putin and Russia.” [16:27]

• US Weapons Shortage Hurting Allies:

  • Ukraine “never given” the missile support now deployed in the Middle East.
    • Quote: “President Zelensky pointed out that the United States has fired 2,000 Tomahawk missiles in this… eight days of the war. He has asked for 200 and was never given them.” [16:45]
  • Jake Sullivan: “We have one leader who is a great friend of the United States who we should be supporting, and instead are castigating… another leader, Putin, who… we are rewarding by having launched this war of choice in the Middle East.” [18:08]

China’s Calculus: Lessons Learned

[18:52–20:33]

• China's Tactical and Strategic Takeaways:

  • Immediate: Shoring up energy supplies, negotiating for safe passage in Straits of Hormuz.
  • Deeper lesson: The US is distracted, alliances are fragmented, and global order is weakening.
    • Quote: “They have a greater window to be able to use military force against Taiwan… the world will be less united and the United States will be less resolved.” [19:57]
    • Predicts this is a “hugely dangerous lesson for the Chinese to draw.”

• Fareed concludes: The risk of inadvertent signaling to US adversaries is rising.

Segment 2: Who Are the Kurds and Why Is Trump Waffling?

Kurdish Reluctance and Strategic Betrayal

Interview: Fareed Zakaria & Peter Galbraith (Former US Ambassador) [22:01–25:42]

• Trump’s U-Turn on the Kurds:

  • Attempted to recruit Iranian and Iraqi Kurds to join the fight; reversed stance after Kurdish reluctance.
    • “The Kurds have declined to join the fight.” [22:01]
  • Kurds fear retaliation from Iran and recall repeated US betrayals (1975, 1991, 2017, 2019, and early 2026).
    • Quote: “America comes, America goes, but Iran stays.” [23:45]
    • Cites Trump’s “serial betrayal” of the Kurds.

• Kurdish and Other Minorities in Iran:

  • Armed ethnic insurgency within Iran is minimal—about 4,000 Kurdish fighters, small compared to Iran’s security apparatus.
    • Galbraith: “Even if there was a collapse of authority in Iranian Kurdistan, it wouldn’t topple the regime.” [24:34]
  • Iran’s government may ignore limited fringe insurgencies, focusing resources on the central regime strongholds.

Segment 3: UAE Under Fire – Gulf Reactions

Interview: Fareed Zakaria & Mina al Araibi (Editor-in-chief, The National, UAE) [26:53–33:25]

• Living Under Attack:

  • Civilian life in the UAE continues under threat of missile and drone attacks. Thuds of interceptions are a routine sound, creating simultaneous unease and comfort.
    • Quote: “You hear the thuds of interceptions… there’s now the comfort of hearing the thud, knowing it’s been intercepted.” [27:42]

• Diverse Reactions Among UAE Residents:

  • With 200+ nationalities, reactions vary. For those from war-torn states (Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq), the UAE feels safe by comparison; newcomers may panic more.
  • Sense of sadness and injustice that the UAE—once a regional haven—is now targeted.
    • Quote: “The UAE is a beacon for many people… a land of opportunity that is being targeted despite all the efforts not to be in this war.” [29:48]

• Public Opinion—Who Gets the Blame?

  • Initial anger at US/Israel for igniting war shifted quickly to Iran as Iranian retaliation hit regional civilians.
    • Quote: “Very soon afterwards, as Iran started to strike the UAE… the rage and the sense of injustice really turned to Iran.” [31:18]
  • Also anger at US/Israel for dragging the region in, and at the US for not paying the local price.

• Lasting Damage to Regional Relations:

  • Attempts at rapprochement with Iran likely dead, with “trust deficit now bigger than it has been for decades.” [33:06]

Segment 4: Can the Pentagon and Iran Keep Up the Fight?

Interview: Fareed Zakaria & Shashank Joshi (Defense Editor, The Economist) [33:25–39:21]

• US Munitions—Not Unlimited:

  • The US has large stockpiles of some weapons but is expending munitions, especially long-range missiles (e.g. Tomahawks) and air defense interceptors, at an unsustainable rate.
    • Quote: “Stockpiles are very much not unlimited. At current rates of depletion… issues arising within a period of weeks rather than… months.” [34:46]
  • Critical concern: depletion is weakening US capacity to face China in the Pacific.

• Air Defense Rationing Looms:

  • Gulf state allies are burning through interceptors at unprecedented rates. Damaged high-end radar systems could take years and billions to repair.
    • Quote: “Annual production of [Patriot interceptors] is very low… replenish is not easy… would begin to see rationing.” [36:48]

• Iran’s Arsenal—Still Potent, But Being Suppressed:

  • Iran’s drone and missile stockpiles are large (“upwards of 2,000 ballistic missiles”; drones possibly “an order of magnitude or more”).
  • Sustained US and Israeli strikes are reducing launch rates by over 70%.
    • Quote: “Iran is having serious trouble actually just getting these things launched and up in the air without being detected and struck.” [39:00]

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Regime change by jazz improvisation… the most accurate description of the scattered, shifting and uncertain approach that emanates from Washington these days.”
  — Fareed Zakaria, [03:12]

• “The administration has not been able to say with any clarity whatsoever what the ultimate goal of this war is… here a week into the war, to have that level of muddiness, that muddle, I think is a huge challenge.”
  — Jake Sullivan, [08:10]

• “When you start using military force, the appetite grows with the eating.”
  — Jake Sullivan, [09:37]

• “One of the big winners in all of this is Vladimir Putin and Russia.”
  — Jake Sullivan, [16:27]

• “They have a greater window to be able to use military force against Taiwan… the world will be less united and the United States will be less resolved.”
  — Jake Sullivan, [19:57]

• “You hear the thuds of interceptions… there’s now the comfort of hearing the thud, knowing it’s been intercepted.”
  — Mina al Araibi, [27:42]

• “The trust deficit now is bigger than it has been for decades.”
  — Mina al Araibi, [33:08]

• “Stockpiles are very much not unlimited. At current rates of depletion… issues arising within a period of weeks.”
  — Shashank Joshi, [34:50]

• “Iran is having serious trouble actually just getting these things launched and up in the air without being detected and struck.”
  — Shashank Joshi, [39:00]

Key Segments & Timestamps

• Zakaria’s Opening Analysis | [00:02–07:38]
• Jake Sullivan on Strategic Aims | [07:38–13:13]
• Russia’s Gains & Ukraine’s Losses | [14:51–17:26]
• China’s Lessons | [18:52–20:33]
• Peter Galbraith on the Kurds | [22:01–25:42]
• Mina al Araibi from the UAE | [26:53–33:25]
• Shashank Joshi on Munitions | [33:25–39:21]

Conclusion

This episode delivers a sobering, multidimensional analysis of the US-Israel war on Iran's regime—a conflict fraught with shifting objectives, strategic inconsistencies, and severe risks of escalation far beyond Iran's borders. Through informed voices—former officials, diplomats, and defense journalists—Fareed Zakaria explores both the internal contradictions of American policy and the dangerous opportunities this war creates for Iran's neighbors, Russia, and China. The episode warns of the perils of “improvisation” in war, the mistrust sown among allies like the Kurds, and the potential for lasting transformation of Middle Eastern geopolitics.