Fareed Zakaria GPS — "What’s Next in Venezuela?"
Date: January 4, 2026
Host: Fareed Zakaria (A)
Guests: Phil Gunson (International Crisis Group), David Sanger (NYT), Richard Haass (CFR), Zanny Minton Beddoes (The Economist), Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment), Ruchir Sharma (Rockefeller International)
Overview of the Episode
This episode of Fareed Zakaria GPS centers on the seismic geopolitical developments following the unprecedented U.S. capture and extradition of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. The discussion explores the immediate aftermath in Venezuela, the motivations and doctrine behind the Trump administration’s intervention, broader implications for American foreign policy, and parallels elsewhere in the world, notably Iran and Ukraine. The show includes deep analysis by leading journalists, analysts, and economists, dissecting both the realpolitik and long-term consequences for the global order.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
The U.S. Capture of Nicolás Maduro: What Just Happened?
Fareed Zakaria introduces the gravity and novelty of events in Venezuela:
- U.S. Special Forces and FBI capture sitting president Nicolás Maduro; he is now detained in the U.S. to face justice.
- U.S. military raided key Venezuelan installations prior.
- Trump’s administration declares it will "run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition."
- Delsey Rodriguez (Maduro’s VP) sworn in as interim president, denounces U.S. action, but U.S. claims she will comply.
(00:01–03:02) Fareed sets up the central puzzle:
- Is there a secret deal between the U.S. and Rodriguez? Is the Venezuelan regime being replaced or merely decapitated?
Phil Gunson (International Crisis Group) attempts to clarify:
"My sense of this is … we have to take Trump's words with something of a pinch of salt ... The U.S. is not here and is not running Venezuela. The Venezuelan government is running Venezuela minus Nicolás Maduro." (03:02)
- Doubts the likelihood Rodriguez could or would unilaterally make a deal.
- Unclear to what extent U.S. has leverage or real on-the-ground control.
Technical issues end his segment prematurely.
Who Holds Power in Venezuela Now?
David Sanger (NYT) weighs in after Gunson’s feed drops:
- Still unclear if Rodriguez has made a deal with the Trump administration, or if she possesses the authority to do so.
- Reminds listeners that real power in Venezuela lies with the military and security elites.
"Having declared that Maduro was an illegitimate president ... it would follow ... that the vice president and the rest of that government is also illegitimate. So the president had a choice ... What he basically said was we're going to put in place anybody who will follow American instructions. And if that fails, there can always be the second wave." (04:55)
- Suggests a "virtual occupation": Threat, not presence, of troops.
Zakaria’s cynicism about U.S. motives:
"Forget about democracy, forget about human rights, forget about any of those concerns ... What Trump talked about was access to oil. That seemed to be the number one, two and three demand ..." (06:08)
Sanger underscores the imperial logic:
"The word democracy and restoring democracy to Venezuela did not come out of the president's mouth ... What did was this fairly lengthy discussion of how American companies ... needed to get restored their money and their opportunity to get at the oil." (06:48)
- Brings up the symbolism of William McKinley’s portrait in the White House, alluding to Spanish-American War era imperialism.
- The doctrine resembles the Monroe Doctrine on steroids, asserting a right of intervention in the Western Hemisphere.
Setting a Dangerous Precedent: The World Reacts
Richard Haass and Zanny Minton Beddoes discuss global implications:
Comparison to Past Interventions
Haass on the Panama parallel:
"This was someone who was seen as a threat ... But that's where the parallels break down ... The magnitude of what this administration has taken on in Venezuela dwarfs what the Bush 41 administration did in Panama." (09:53)
- Notes the lack of military deaths and huge strategic interests, like Panama Canal, in Venezuela case.
Can Venezuela Be Stabilized?
Zakaria:
- Points out U.S. failures in nation-building in Iraq/Syria after decades of sanctions and exodus of professionals.
Beddoes:
"It's very relatively easy to get rid of an old regime compared to the difficulties of building something new ... But I think for me, the striking thing from President Trump yesterday is I don't think he gives two hoots about democracy in Venezuela. I think he'd be very happy to be cutting a deal with remnants of the regime that give the United States access to the oil." (11:08)
- Emphasizes that nation-building is not the goal or even an interest here.
The Essence of the Trump Doctrine
Haass:
"If you wanted the case study, almost the unvarnished essence of the Trump doctrine, turn on your TV. What is it? The United States acts unilaterally ... no congressional role, no international role, no regional role. ... Not democracy, not human rights, not the rule of law, but American commercial interests to advantage American corporations." (12:06)
- Calls it a "significant departure" from U.S. foreign policy tradition.
Venezuela’s Oil Sector: No Quick Rewards
Zakaria and Beddoes discuss economic prospects:
"Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, but it actually produces just under a million barrels per day because it's had two decades of disrepair and corruption collapse. ... If anything, you might see less output because in part from the seizure of the tankers, there's a bunch of Venezuelan oil already on the high seas. ..." (14:05)
- Unlikely oil output will increase quickly; U.S. oil majors not likely to rush in.
- No likely short-term impact on oil prices.
The Global Domino Effect: Spheres of Influence
Haass outlines the bigger risk:
"... at the international cost of setting this precedent and reinforcing ... spheres of influence ... Not what we do in Venezuela, but how we change. We go from a world order to three regional disorders. And, and this is a really dangerous development." (16:58)
- U.S. retreat from global order means Russia and China may feel licensed to do the same in their regions.
- A "narrowing" of U.S. foreign policy with less input from allies and international institutions.
Zakaria on the legacy:
"... it has the effect of shrinking the United States role, which was really the arbiter of that global order, instead saying, we just are going to be strict enforcers of our region. And by the way, you, the Russians can do what you want in your region ... and you, the Chinese can do whatever you want in yours." (18:08)
Iran’s New Wave of Protests
Segment with Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment):
Are These Protests Different?
"Not yet, Fareed. ... The Islamic Republic of Iran, I describe it as a zombie regime. It has a dying ideology. It's increasingly bankrupt financially, but it's still capable of lethal force in order to survive." (20:53)
- While there are new elements—a reformist president (Pezeshkian) and overt threats from Trump—underlying power still rests with Supreme Leader and security forces.
- U.S. can boost morale of protesters, but outcomes will ultimately be decided by Iranians themselves.
The Khamenei Factor
- Supreme Leader’s old age and ill health are wildcards.
"What is the physical and psychological health of the supreme leader? How cohesive are Iran's security forces? And, and what is the psychology of Iran's protesters? These things are all interrelated ..." (24:12)
Possible Israeli Strikes
- Possibility of attacks on Iranian nuclear or missile facilities; short-term "rally around the flag" effects will likely be fleeting.
Global Economic Trends for 2026
Ruchir Sharma (Rockefeller International) on Coming Year Predictions:
AI Bubble and U.S. Markets
- Signs of severe overvaluation and risk in tech stocks.
"Americans now have more of their wealth in the stock market than in property. And that's the first time, first time ever ..." (27:39)
- A "burst" likely if interest rates rise. Bubble is sensitive to small increases.
China: Exports Drive Growth, Domestic Economy Tenuous
"... the Chinese economy is really being driven by its export powerhouse ... the property market is bust, the population is shrinking. And the fact is that the debt levels in China are in fact higher than America's debt levels." (28:48)
- Growing global backlash to cheap Chinese exports, likely focus of new trade tensions in 2026.
The Silver Lining: Global Deregulation
- Even regulatory-heavy regions like Europe backing away from strict new rules in response to U.S. pressure.
Peak Alcohol
- Shifts in consumption patterns; self-awareness, rise of cannabis cited as factors.
"...studies are showing that this myth that if you drink even once a day, it's okay for you. No. So therefore the final trend I put it there is that we are at peak alcohol." (32:13)
Zakaria’s Closing Commentary: The Fate of Ukraine in 2026
Zakaria’s "Take":
- Trump administration is pressuring Ukraine to accept concessions, using time-limited security guarantees (e.g. 15 years) to incentivize peace.
- Warns a time-limited guarantee is almost meaningless; it signals to Russia and investors that Ukraine is never truly safe.
- Stresses the critical difference between a ceasefire (temporary) and a genuine, durable peace settlement.
"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back openly, unapologetically, in 21st century geopolitics." (34:01)
- Argues that Western wavering will have global consequences, especially in Asia.
- Stakes are existential: Can the U.S.-backed world order withstand nationalist, transactional power politics?
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Zakaria: "Forget about democracy, forget about human rights ... What Trump talked about was access to oil. That seemed to be the number one, two and three demand ..." (06:08)
- Haass: "If you wanted the case study, almost the unvarnished essence of the Trump doctrine, turn on your TV ... We do it on behalf of ... American commercial interests to advantage American corporations." (12:06)
- Beddoes: "It's very relatively easy to get rid of an old regime compared to the difficulties of building something new ... I don't think he [Trump] gives two hoots about democracy in Venezuela." (11:08)
- Sadjadpour: "The Islamic Republic of Iran ... has a dying ideology. It's increasingly bankrupt financially, but it's still capable of lethal force in order to survive." (20:53)
- Sharma: "Americans now have more of their wealth in the stock market than in property ... this is getting pretty extreme." (27:39)
- Zakaria Closing: "If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force ... the lesson will echo far beyond Europe." (34:01)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:01: Introduction, setting the agenda
- 03:02: Phil Gunson on possible secret deals in Venezuela
- 04:55: David Sanger on legitimacy and U.S. motives
- 06:08: Zakaria on U.S. priorities (oil, not democracy)
- 09:53: Richard Haass compares to Panama; scale of the operation
- 11:08: Zanny Minton Beddoes and the nation-building challenge
- 12:06: Haass dissects the "Trump Doctrine"
- 14:05: Venezuela’s oil sector explained
- 16:58: Haass’ warning on the precedent for spheres of influence
- 20:53: Karim Sadjadpour on Iran’s protest dynamics
- 24:12: Supreme Leader’s health as a variable in Iran
- 27:39: Ruchir Sharma on the AI bubble and U.S. stock market
- 28:48: China’s economy and global export backlash
- 32:13: "Peak alcohol" consumption trend
- 34:01: Zakaria’s closing commentary on Ukraine and world order
Tone and Takeaway
The tone throughout is urgent, deeply analytical, and occasionally skeptical or even alarmed at the apparent abandonment of established norms in favor of overt, transactional realpolitik. The episode is both a snapshot of historic, rapidly moving events and a meditation on what these shifts foreshadow—both for America’s role in the world and the very shape of the global order.