Podcast Summary: Fareed Zakaria GPS

Episode Title: Will Hamas Disarm, and What Does Gaza’s Future Governance Look Like?
Date: October 19, 2025
Host: Fareed Zakaria
Guests:

• Dr. Shira Ephron (Senior Fellow, RAND Corporation)
• Matthew Levitt (Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
• Alice Han (China Director, Green Map)
• Justice Anthony Kennedy (former Supreme Court Justice)

Episode Overview

In this wide-ranging episode, Fareed Zakaria examines the aftermath of the recent Gaza ceasefire, focusing on President Trump’s “victory lap,” the prospects for Hamas’s disarmament, and the future political structure of Gaza. The episode explores the complexities of Middle East diplomacy, places it in the context of the escalating U.S.-China trade war, and includes a thoughtful reflection on America’s constitutional checks and balances with retired Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Foreign Policy – Contrasts in the Middle East and China

[00:53–08:46] – Fareed’s Take

• Gaza Ceasefire as Theatrical Diplomacy:
  Trump’s diplomatic style—personal, visible, and transactional—led to a ceasefire in Gaza, signed at a grand stage in Egypt.

  • “Trump’s approach works where America has overwhelming leverage and the politics are personal.” – Fareed Zakaria [04:52]

• U.S.-China Relations: A Poor Fit for the ‘Deal’ Model:
  Trump's “threat-retreat-confusion” cycle—effective in the Middle East—creates uncertainty and is less suited to the structural U.S.-China rivalry.

  • “The contest with China, by contrast, is structural, a rivalry between two great powers bound by mutual dependence. Here, Trump’s instincts misfire.” – Fareed [05:23]

• Real Leverage Is in Coalitions:
  Successful containment of China requires alliances, patience, investment, and consistency—not bluster.

  • “The best China strategy, then, involves coalition management ... that requires patience, consistency, and trust. Trump’s record here is dim.” – Fareed [06:42]

2. Will Hamas Disarm? (With Shira Ephron & Matthew Levitt)

[09:19–13:40]

• Hamas’ Reluctance to Disarm:

  • “Hamas said that they will not demilitarize and they will hand over their arms only when there is a Palestinian state.” – Shira Ephron [09:19]
  • Some external pressure (from Qatar, Turkey) could lead to a partial handover of 'offensive' weapons, but enforcement would be required (possibly by international and Israeli forces).

• The Trump Plan’s Dilemma:

  • Matthew Levitt points out that Trump's plan demands full Hamas demilitarization, which Hamas resists, currently proposing a 'freeze' on weapons instead.
  • “Israelis aren’t going to move to stage two if Hamas maintains whatever weapons it has—that’s an express violation of the president’s plan.” – Matthew Levitt [10:35]

• President Trump’s Unilateral Leverage:

  • “Frankly, I think it all depends on what President Trump says and does... he basically said, I will decide what constitutes a violation.” – Shira Ephron [11:16]

• Interim Arrangements and Challenges:

  • Levitt argues for an immediate temporary international force to patrol Gaza and a technocratic interim government.
  • Arab or Muslim countries are hesitant to send troops if it means fighting Hamas.
  • “It has to happen fast for an interim force to come in, because otherwise... Hamas forces went in, renamed under a Gaza police force, seeking retribution…” – Levitt [13:19]

3. Future Governance of Gaza

[14:00–20:44]

• Technocratic Government and Local Legitimacy:

  • Fareed highlights parallels to Iraq: "Smart people" appointed from abroad lack local legitimacy.
  • Shira Ephron shares that there is a consensual list of Gazans for a technocratic committee, though Israel’s stance is ambiguous.
  • “If this comes to support and not substitute... then we can have this legitimacy that is so needed on the ground.” – Shira Ephron [16:25]

• Practical Cooperation with the Palestinian Authority:

  • Despite politics, Israeli agencies already coordinate with Palestinian institutions (water, health, border crossings).
  • “This whole taboo on Palestinian Authority, I just don’t buy it. I think it’s a framing ... Some sort of ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ could work very well here.” – Shira Ephron [17:18]

• Palestinian Authority’s Credibility and Necessary Reform:

  • Levitt: “The Palestinian Authority is what we have ... If you want a role post-war, have to see serious reform.”
  • Elections are ultimately needed: “They have to draw their legitimacy from the people ... for a long time it was very convenient for the Palestinians not to have elections because we dreaded Hamas winning.” – Shira Ephron [20:03]

4. China’s Strategy in the Trade War (With Alice Han)

[22:15–26:54]

• Beijing’s Calculated Response:

  • China is “prepared and [has] done its homework” to respond to Trump’s bluffs with speedy, proportionate moves (“escalation dominance”).
  • “They have basically taken a leaf out of the playbook of the Americans, copying export controls...” – Alice Han [22:54]

• Real Risks of Over-Confidence:

  • China might now overestimate its power, particularly as its mineral export controls risk alienating the EU and G7 (potentially driving them closer to America).
  • “If China doesn’t fix its PR messaging with this critical minerals export controls, ... it actually could push the G7 countries closer to Trump in the short and medium run.” – Alice Han [26:24]

5. The American System Under Stress (Interview with Justice Kennedy)

[27:47–32:44]

• Spirit of the American West & Constitutional Freedom:

  • Justice Kennedy reflects on how the American frontier pioneered individual and collective freedom.
  • “When you’re in California ... you’re always east of Eden. California and the West have a tradition of openness, courtesy, friendliness...” – Anthony Kennedy [28:06]

• Checks and Balances Under Strain:

  • The system relies on officials’ sense of duty, not automatic pilots.
  • “Freedom isn’t on automatic pilot ... Every legislator, every executive officer takes an oath to begin with to obey the Constitution, and he or she should remember that every day.” – Kennedy [31:03]

• Difference Between Unwise and Unconstitutional:

  • “There are actions the executive branch might take that are extreme assertions of power. They may not be unconstitutional, but they may still be unwise.” – Fareed Zakaria [31:25]
  • Kennedy affirms: “That’s the way democracy works… they are entrusted to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution. … The framers used [‘liberty’] as an expansive word because they trusted later generations to find its meaning.” – Kennedy [31:59]

6. The Surprising U.S.–Pakistan Rapprochement

[33:00–37:56] – The “Last Look” Segment

• Pakistan’s Effusive Praise for Trump:

  • Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif calls Trump “the man this world needed most ... the most wonderful candidate for peace prize.” [36:41]
  • Trump's pivot toward Pakistan marked by military and economic overtures, estranging India.

• Geopolitical Maneuvering and Military Utility:

  • Pakistan leverages its “weakness” to win Trump’s favor; post-ceasefire, relations with Saudi Arabia and U.S. deepen.
  • The shift illustrates the transactional, personality-driven nature of current U.S. foreign policy.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Middle East Diplomacy:

  • “The Hamas Israel ceasefire was precisely that kind of performance: personal, visible and theatrical.” – Fareed Zakaria [04:32]

• On Coalition Power vs. Lone Action:

  • “The US alone cannot make every critical technology. The US plus its allies can.” – Fareed Zakaria [06:13]

• On Electoral Legitimacy in Palestine:

  • “Mahmoud Abbas is, you know, on the, whatever, the 19th year of his four year term. There haven’t been elections there forever because the PA thinks that probably correctly that they would lose badly.” – Fareed Zakaria [19:45]

• On the Nature of Freedom:

  • “Freedom isn’t on automatic pilot ... it is taught and preserved as conscious acts.” – Justice Kennedy [30:29]

• On Shifting Alliances:

  • “If praise for Donald Trump were an Olympic sport, there would have been a clear victor ... I think that you are the man this world needed most.” – Pakistan PM Sharif (clip aired by Fareed) [36:41]

Important Timestamps

• 00:53 – 08:46: Fareed’s monologue – contrast of foreign policy in Gaza vs. China
• 09:19 – 13:40: Interview with Shira Ephron & Matthew Levitt – Will Hamas Disarm?
• 14:00 – 20:44: Gaza’s future governance and the role of the Palestinian Authority
• 22:15 – 26:54: China’s strategy in the U.S. trade war (with Alice Han)
• 27:47 – 32:44: Justice Kennedy on the Constitution, checks and balances
• 33:00 – 37:56: “Last Look” – Trump’s new relationship with Pakistan

Final Thoughts

This episode paints a nuanced picture of global affairs post-Gaza ceasefire. It shows the short-term wins and long-term risks of transactional diplomacy, the geopolitical complexities of Gaza’s future, the resilience of China in the face of U.S. pressure, and the fragile nature of America’s own constitutional safeguards.

With insightful analysis and candid conversations, Fareed and his guests illuminate challenges that will shape the Middle East, the global economic order, and American democracy in the years ahead.