Fashion People Podcast: "Luxury’s Q3 and Vogue World Takes Hollywood"

Featuring Lauren Sherman (Host) & Luca Solca (Bernstein Analyst)
Release Date: October 28, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Lauren Sherman welcomes Bernstein analyst Luca Solca to dig into luxury fashion's Q3 financial results—from LVMH and Kering, to Zegna and Prada—and to unpack what Vogue World’s latest Hollywood extravaganza says about the future of the industry. The conversation weaves through brand performance, shifting consumer behavior in global luxury markets, creative director moves, looming M&A, and politics in fashion. The tone is candid, witty, and deeply inside the game.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Vogue World: Why Does It Exist Now?

• Purpose and Reception
  • The podcast opens with Lauren addressing the recurring question: What is the point of Vogue World?
  • [02:37] Lauren: “The point is to make top line revenue and show everyone involved, all the sponsors, the fashion industry, in this case Hollywood, that Vogue still matters. Like, especially advertisers... But also to consumers who are watching it online or whatever.”
  • Lauren notes that, while some insiders felt the event was “hokey” or even a “waste of money,” the energy was high, and there was a sense of fun and industry pride.
  • Lisa Love, formerly west coast editor, is mentioned as bringing her signature “lightness” to the event.
  • The financials matter: The Wall Street Journal reported nearly $30 million in top-line revenue.
  • [04:57] Lauren: “At least it really seemed like they’re having fun. So I hope there’s another... The point is, I think they should keep doing it.”

2. Luxury’s Q3: Stabilization or Start of a Rebound?

• Global Demand Trends

  • [06:27] Luca: “It was a step forward relative to what we had seen in the second quarter. Overall, the impression was that Chinese demand was incrementally improving... continuing strength in American demand and very decent European demand and strong Middle Eastern demand.”
  • The industry is experiencing a stabilization, coming off post-pandemic overconsumption and ongoing uncertainty in China due to real estate concerns.

• China Watch

  • [07:36] Luca: “If we could see Chinese consumer confidence rebuild, albeit according to a U shaped path, I think this would create quite significantly better environment for 2030... But at the moment, we're not expecting any V shaped recovery.”

• U.S. Market Realities

  • Despite “psychological recession” talk, U.S. luxury continues to show growth among high-net-worth consumers, though the risk factors—stock market, crypto, inflation—could bite.
  • [11:02] Luca: “If there was an adjustment in the stock market, this would definitely create a more difficult discretionary spend environment... another thing... is inflation... cost of living would naturally go up with a weaker US dollar and with import duties sort of pushing prices up.”

• Socioeconomic Context

  • [12:00] Luca: “You have the rich getting richer and the poor sort of poor getting poorer... I think that's also at the root cause of the most recent political and social developments we've seen.”

3. House-by-House Q3 Analysis & Creative Director Moves

LVMH & Dior

• Jonathan Anderson’s Dior Debut
  • [14:31] Lauren: “First off, what did you think of Dior? ...Did you like it?”
  • [14:34] Luca: “Picked up a lot of praise... the footwear products and the leather goods looked very, very commercial. Very desirable... Everyone loved it.”
  • LVMH is navigating between self-help strategies and playing the long game, leveraging mega-events (NBA, Formula One, Olympics) and special product drops to revive excitement.
  • Chinese reaction to Vuitton’s initiatives has been positive.
• Succession & Arnault Questions
  • [18:53] Luca: “When investors consider LVMH, one of the concerns... is succession... they're still going through this succession transition and I presume that this is going to last a while more.”
  • Michael Burke’s US-focused role is highlighted as a strategic move for managing LVMH’s most important market.
• Rumors/Deals/M&A
  • Lauren and Luca discuss media rumors around LVMH acquiring other brands (e.g., Armani—ultimately unlikely; Marc Jacobs sale more plausible).
  • [27:02] Luca: “They are probably in cleanup mode. And the potential divestiture of Marc Jacobs... makes sense. I think that more divestitures could also make sense.”

Armani: Who Will Acquire?

• Luca’s Take
  • Most likely buyers are current licensees (L’Oreal, EssilorLuxottica); LVMH isn’t a natural fit due to Armani’s mid-market exposure and structure.
  • [30:33] Lauren: “If I were LVMH... I’d buy Ralph Lauren, like it’s just so well managed. Armani is going to have to be like completely overhauled.”

Kering & Portfolio Strategy

• New Leadership: Luca De Meo
  • [33:49] Luca: “I think Luca has been brilliant postponing the deal with Decatharis on Valentino. Then this u turn on beauty... developing a beauty in house was over ambitious.”
  • Francesca Bellettini as Gucci CEO cited as an encouraging move.
• Streamlining the Brand Portfolio
  • Focus is on reviving core brands: Gucci, Saint Laurent, Balenciaga, Bottega Veneta.
  • Non-core brands like Alexander McQueen and Brioni could be divestiture candidates.
  • [38:56] Luca: “If there was any debate at the moment on potential divestitures, I would expect it to be concentrating on Alexander McQueen that you bring up. But also on Brioni, frankly, which has been a lag or a drag...”

4. Rapid-Fire Brand Check-In

Zegna

• [42:58] Luca: “Incredible turnaround from being a suit company to being a high end lifestyle brand. They're being very successful... unique materials and they can price up. And the high end consumer is buoyant.”

Hermès

• Wales Bonner’s Appointment for Men’s
  • [44:21] Luca: “This appointment is potentially very interesting. Hermès has done very well in Ready to Wear... feedback... is positive.”
  • Lauren praises how secretive and well-managed the appointment process was.

Brunello Cucinelli – “Russian Scandal” & Wholesale Risks

• [47:45] Luca: “With Brunello Cuccinelli being exposed to the tune of almost 50% of sales to wholesale... this risk is definitely present that they could potentially end up in a situation like this. But that is a very different thing to saying that they engage with business in Russia directly.”
  • He pushes for stricter value chain oversight: “I think that luxury goods brands cannot, in the same sentence, extol their craftsmanship... and when they turn their head, then deal with manufacturing with three or four layers of subcontracting...”
• Lauren bluntly: “They just need to get their shit together.” [52:54]

Prada & Miu Miu

• Versace Acquisition & Brand Identity
  • [53:26] Luca: “Prada... there's a lot to come with the Versace acquisition being completed... the jury is out on Prada.”
  • Discussion on whether Prada's “monolithic” approach limits its expansion potential, despite unmatched industry respect and consistent execution.

Ferragamo

• Room for Improvement
  • [57:13] Luca: “They need to work more on the product and on the brand. There's a lot more in this brand history and heritage that could potentially be leveraged.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the state of fashion events:

  • Lauren [03:30]: “If you think the purpose was to build Vogue's credibility as a media partner, this person said they thought it accomplished the opposite. It looks silly and dated. It felt like a waste of money. Look, I’m trying to be balanced here... but also fun.”

• On the luxury rebound:

  • Luca [07:36]: “We've been sobering up from that and in the past two years we've been probably going back to the trend line... The other factor is the Chinese... the collapse in their real estate market... consumer confidence has been at a low for a long while.”

• On M&A rumors:

  • Lauren [30:33]: “If I were LVMH and I was going to buy a brand like this, I’d buy Ralph Lauren, like it’s just so well managed. Armani is going to have to be like completely overhauled.”

• On manufacturing scandal risk:

  • Luca [47:45]: “Luxury Goods brands cannot, in the same sentence, extol their craftsmanship and their skill and the skill of their workers... and when they turn their head, then deal with manufacturing with three or four layers of subcontracting...”

• Lauren’s plain talk:

  • [52:54]: “They just need to get their shit together.”

• On expectations for 2026:

  • Lauren [59:09]: “Are you pumped for 2026 or are you cautiously optimistic?”
  • Luca [59:23]: “I would say I’m cautiously optimistic. At the moment, we’re expecting the market to grow at 3 to 4%, which is a significant improvement... but which is a far cry from what we had.”

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |---|---| | 02:37 | Lauren defines the point of Vogue World & industry reaction | | 06:27 | Luca’s global Q3 outlook, focusing on China and the US | | 14:26 | Jonathan Anderson’s Dior show, LVMH brand momentum | | 18:53 | LVMH & Arnault’s succession, French context | | 27:02 | LVMH’s approach to M&A and possible divestitures | | 33:49 | Kering’s strategy under Luca De Meo, Gucci/Balenciaga/Valentino | | 38:56 | McQueen & Brioni as possible sales for Kering | | 42:58 | Zegna’s transformation | | 44:21 | Hermes hiring Grace Wales Bonner for Men’s | | 47:45 | Cucinelli, Russian market, and ethical sourcing | | 53:26 | Prada in transition post-Versace acquisition | | 57:13 | Ferragamo’s untapped potential | | 59:23 | Outlook for 2026—cautious optimism |

Summary Takeaways

• Vogue World’s new model primarily sells ad sponsorship and buzz, with financial success ($30M revenue) but mixed image results.
• The luxury sector is stabilizing globally, with Chinese incremental improvement crucial to future prospects.
• US demand is strong, but luxury’s future depends on the wealth gap, politics, and macroeconomic volatility.
• LVMH is in solid shape, innovating through events and product drops (Dior, Vuitton), but faces the slow churn of succession challenges.
• Kering, with agile leadership, streamlines strategy, prioritizing its main brands and possibly divesting Brioni/McQueen.
• Both houses are realigning portfolios, eyeing potential M&A cautiously, as evidenced by the Armani and Marc Jacobs discussions.
• Zegna is the turnaround star, while Hermès’ new menswear creative remains a watchpoint.
• Industry-wide, supply chain standards—especially in Italy—are under fresh scrutiny, with reputational risk on the rise.
• Brands like Prada, Ferragamo, and Cucinelli balance heritage with the need to stay relevant and ethically sound in a shifting landscape.
• No V-shaped recovery for luxury, but cautious optimism as the sector enters 2026 with eyes on China and continued innovation at the top.