Federalist Radio Hour
Episode: Scott Rasmussen Puts A Finger On The Pulse Of America
Date: March 11, 2025
Host: Matt Kittle (Senior Elections Correspondent, The Federalist)
Guest: Scott Rasmussen (President, RMG Research Inc.)
Episode Overview
This episode features pollster Scott Rasmussen in a wide-ranging conversation about the current political climate in America at the dawn of Trump's second term (“Trump 2.0”). Topics include the accuracy and limitations of polling, disconnects between political elites and everyday Americans, the state of the media, key voter issues, the 2024 election, government reforms, economic sentiment, and election integrity. Rasmussen also reflects humorously on his early role founding ESPN.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Polling, Media Bias, and Election Surprises
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Polling vs. Analysis: Rasmussen argues that polling is often scapegoated for surprises in electoral results, but it is typically the analysis (by pundits and media) that is at fault, not the polls themselves.
"In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2 percentage points. The national polling showed that she would win it by three points. ...The polling was, wasn't perfect, but it wasn't as bad as the analysis."
— Scott Rasmussen [04:34–07:16] -
Media Narratives and Bubbles: Both host and guest criticize the “legacy” and “accomplice” media for creating narratives rather than reflecting reality, due in part to their social and geographic separation from everyday voters.
"All of us live in our bubbles. We tend to see things breaking in our direction."
— Scott Rasmussen [08:18]
2. Trump’s Political Success and Elite Disconnect
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Roots of Trumpism: Rasmussen emphasizes that the issues animating the MAGA movement — skepticism of international commitments, wariness about immigration — long predated Trump’s candidacy. Trump succeeded by listening to and voicing concerns already present among Americans, especially working-class voters.
"The movement was there before Donald Trump arrived to lead it, before he arrived to give voice to it."
— Scott Rasmussen [04:34] -
Elite vs. Mainstream Priorities: He notes a consistent disconnect between the concerns of elites and those of ordinary voters, pointing out that immigration, for example, has been a top concern to most voters for decades but tends to be ignored by the political class.
"We asked a thousand members of this elite world...what was the most important issue facing the nation. Not one of them mentioned immigration or border security."
— Scott Rasmussen [11:51] -
Progressive Theories and Voter Frustration: Rasmussen observes that progressives tend to believe government “experts” know best, which breeds voter resentment when officials seem aloof or dismissive.
"The message coming out of the Biden White House was, the economy is doing great. You people are just too stupid to recognize it. Not a great message."
— Scott Rasmussen [11:51]
3. 2024 Election and Media’s Diminished Relevance
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Media’s Existential Stakes: The host recalls an executive allegedly saying that a Trump win in 2024 would mean “we’re done,” highlighting the high stakes for the mainstream media and its disconnect from public sentiment.
"There is something to be said about sentiment and totally understanding it. Obviously, Abraham Lincoln understood it very well. His, his famous line, of course, is, you know, public sentiment is everything."
— Matt Kittle [15:02] -
No Lessons Learned by Progressives: Rasmussen remarks that progressives appear to be doubling down on unpopular issues rather than self-reflecting after defeat. He cites the issue of transgender athletes in sports as an extreme case, noting that only 13% of voters support allowing biological males to compete in women’s sports.
"They are doubling down on an issue that is supported by 13% of voters. Overwhelmingly. People think that's a bad idea. It's a rejection of common sense."
— Scott Rasmussen [16:14]
4. Impact of Federal Layoffs & Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.)
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Public Reactions to Layoffs: Most Americans approve of federal workforce reductions, associating bureaucratic cuts with anti-corruption efforts and greater efficiency.
"48% say that reducing the number of federal employees is good for the economy. 41% say it's bad. ...At the core of it all is the belief that there's not just waste in the federal government...there's a tremendous amount of corruption."
— Scott Rasmussen [20:22] -
Budget Realities: Rasmussen warns that while trimming federal waste is popular, it will not resolve the larger problem of spiraling federal spending.
"No matter if you eliminate every a penny of waste and corruption and fraud and abuse, spending will continue to go up, sure, at a slower rate, but that's a different question."
— Scott Rasmussen [22:30]
5. The Economy: Still the Top Concern
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Biden’s Legacy, Trump’s Challenge: At the time of recording, economic pessimism was still easing, but voters continue to blame Biden for inflation and expect Trump to deliver improvement.
"They trust Republicans by a 45% to 34% margin. So a double digit edge to the Republicans there. Inflation is a huge concern to voters."
— Scott Rasmussen [23:37] -
Warning Signs: There’s growing confusion and concern over new trade tariffs, and Rasmussen signals that if improvements stall, this will threaten Republican prospects in the 2026 midterm elections.
"There are some warning signs, some yellow lights that, that the Trump administration is going to have to address this head on."
— Scott Rasmussen [23:37]
6. Voter Priorities for Trump’s Second Term
- Three Core Issues:
- Border Security – Public perception of government serious about the border has risen from 24% (Biden) to nearly 70% under Trump.
- Return to Common Sense (Especially Around Gender) – Executive orders aimed at reinforcing traditional views on gender and sports participation are broadly supported.
- The Economy – Ultimately, voters care most about economic improvement and inflation control.
"If I was advising the President, that's what I would be saying between now and and November of 2026, you have to make the economy work for all Americans."
— Scott Rasmussen [27:30–28:03]
7. Election Integrity and Broad Support for “Common Sense” Reforms
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Trust Is Low: Less than half of Americans are very confident in election accuracy. This distrust is bipartisan; Democrats doubted 2016, Republicans doubted 2020.
"Only 45% of voters...say they are very confident that their votes are accurately counted and the correct person declared the winner. ...In a nation where the government derives its only just authority from the consent of the governed, that's a crisis."
— Scott Rasmussen [31:48] -
Five Popular Reforms:
- Photo ID to vote
- Proof of citizenship to register
- Ensuring ballot/vote counts match
- All ballots (including mail-in) received by Election Day
- General confidence-building on procedures
"These are just sort of. Why wouldn't you do this?...This is a broad concern that we need to have confidence in our electoral processes."
— Scott Rasmussen [32:05–33:18] -
Resistance from Elites: Efforts to enact these reforms often meet elite or activist resistance, with opponents framing them as "voter suppression" even though broad majorities support them.
"Most of the people who said they liked that [For the People Act] reform thought it mandated photo ID requirements for all elections. In fact, it banned photo ID requirements."
— Scott Rasmussen [34:24]
8. Personal Reflections: ESPN’s Early Years
- On Founding ESPN: Scott Rasmussen reminisces about the modest, scrappy origins of the sports network, recalling the unexpected appeal of obscure sporting events in the pre-internet era.
"In our earliest days on the air we showed something called Irish hurling...And we started getting swamped with calls about...how can we follow it."
— Scott Rasmussen [37:16–38:25]
Notable Quotes by Timestamp
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On Polling Analysis:
"The polling was...not perfect, but it wasn't as bad as the analysis."
— Scott Rasmussen [07:16] -
On Media Bubbles:
"All of us live in our bubbles…expectations that we bring into it."
— Scott Rasmussen [08:18] -
On Disconnect Between Elites and Mainstream:
"They don't understand the importance of listening."
— Scott Rasmussen [11:51] -
On Out-of-Touch Policy Positions:
"They are doubling down on an issue that is supported by 13% of voters...It's a rejection of common sense."
— Scott Rasmussen [16:14] -
On Public Sentiment and Abraham Lincoln:
"Public sentiment is everything. With it, you can accomplish just about anything. Without it, you can accomplish nothing."
— Matt Kittle quoting Lincoln [15:02] -
On the Need for Election Reforms:
"These are common sense reforms...we need to have confidence in our electoral processes."
— Scott Rasmussen [32:05–33:18]
Important Timestamps
- 02:17 – 03:07: Host introduction, guest welcome
- 04:34 – 07:16: Trump and the origins of MAGA; polling vs. analysis
- 08:18 – 11:51: Media bias, bubble mindsets, elite priorities vs. ordinary Americans
- 16:14 – 18:24: Progressive doubling down on unpopular social issues
- 20:22 – 22:30: Federal layoffs, public reactions to government workforce cuts
- 23:37 – 28:03: The economy’s central role, voter trust and expectations
- 28:03 – 34:24: Election integrity, public support for election reforms
- 37:16 – 38:25: Reflections on founding ESPN
Memorable Moments
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Matt Kittle’s tongue-in-cheek opener:
“Do you ever get tired of being right?”
— [03:07] -
Scott Rasmussen’s humility:
“Well, actually, I remember all the times that I've been wrong more than I remember the other. But I'm thankful that, that other people forget some of those along the way.”
— [03:33] -
The ESPN anecdote:
“We aired [Irish hurling] because we got free tapes...we started getting swamped with calls...it just caught us off guard.”
— Scott Rasmussen [37:40]
Tone & Style
The conversation is frank, analytical, occasionally humorous, and highly topical, with both host and guest combining partisan perspectives with polling data, historical context, and personal anecdotes. Both are candid about partisan divides, the blind spots of Washington elites, and media failures, yet the tone remains conversational and accessible to a broad audience.
This summary offers a comprehensive guide to the episode’s content, key issues, and highlights—ideal for listeners seeking an in-depth yet concise overview.