Federalist Radio Hour – “What’s Next In The War In Iran?”

Episode Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Matt Kittle
Guest: Jacob Olidor, Chief Research Officer & Director of American Security, America First Policy Institute

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Matt Kittle speaks with Jacob Olidor about the evolving state of the U.S.-Israeli joint military operation against Iran following a pivotal strike over the weekend. The discussion probes the motives and objectives behind American involvement, the prospects for regime change in Iran, coalition-building across allies, concerns of military escalation and American “boots on the ground,” and the broader geopolitical implications for U.S. policy vis-à-vis Russia, China, and the Middle East.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Objectives and Justification for the Iran Campaign

Timestamps: 01:18–05:44

• Defining Clear Objectives:

  • Jacob Olidor highlights that the president’s early Saturday speech signaled both a constitutional mandate (“Article 2, Section 2 duties … to protect the American people against threats”—[02:41]) and an intent to set conditions for Iranians to potentially reclaim self-determination.
  • The administration is focused on direct threats to Americans and coalition partners, not nation-building or externally imposed regime change.

• Successes of Initial Actions:

  • The operation achieved rapid decimation of Iranian military leadership and key capabilities.
  • Olidor notes the historic scope and coordination with Israel and vocal regional partners, as well as European readiness for defensive actions (“Europeans … targeting Iranian ballistic missile capabilities”—[04:54]).

2. U.S. Messaging and Divergent Narratives

Timestamps: 05:44–07:15

• Ambiguity in Communication:

  • Kittle points out confusion in the official messaging regarding motivations—preempting nuclear capability, regime change, or aligning with Israeli initiative.
  • Olidor clarifies that the administration distinguishes itself from previous ones by understanding and confronting reality: “This is a president that knows what an adversary looks like and understands the threats to the American people…” ([07:18]).

• Regime’s Threat Poses to U.S. & Allies:

  • Iran’s longstanding rhetoric (“big Satan, little Satan”) underscores the consistent U.S. focus on direct security concerns.

3. Prospects for Regime Change and the Iranian People’s Role

Timestamps: 09:13–14:18

• Readiness for Change:

  • Both Kittle and Olidor discuss the popular discontent within Iran (“thousands came out in the streets and risked their lives in protest”—[09:20]).
  • Olidor notes: “that is ultimately, for the Iranian people… not something for us to be [doing],” reinforcing that U.S. objectives are limited to threat elimination ([10:31]).

• Diversity of Sentiment:

  • While anti-regime sentiment is widespread, some Iranians still resent the U.S. more than the regime, making outcomes unpredictable.
  • “It’s important not to overstate … or generalize too, about a country as large and diaspora community as diverse…” ([12:29]).

4. U.S. Political Reactions and the ‘America First’ Doctrine

Timestamps: 15:07–20:04

• Domestic Divisions in Response:

  • Kittle observes the “radical left” mourning the Ayatollah’s death, and splits on the right between hawkish celebration and skepticism among “America First” conservatives wary of new entanglements.
  • Olidor frames the administration’s actions as correcting past missteps (notably Obama-era policies), insisting the president has been consistent in opposing Iranian nuclear armament since 2015.

• Refocusing U.S. Priorities:

  • The mission, per Olidor, is tightly focused: “The objective here is… in a very targeted, precise way alongside partners. So it’s not just our burden…” ([19:56]).

5. Iran’s Nuclear and Military Capabilities

Timestamps: 20:04–22:19

• Why Strike Again?
  • Kittle asks, given last summer’s attacks, why is further action needed now?
  • Olidor explains: “If we see evidence again that Iran is trying to do this [revive nuclear arms], we will respond again militarily.” ([20:54])
  • Iran’s adaptability (e.g., drone shield strategy) makes complacency dangerous.

6. Coalition Building and Regional Dynamics

Timestamps: 22:19–27:15

• Foundations & Evolution:

  • Olidor credits previous Trump-era diplomatic moves (Abraham Accords, military command shifts) for laying groundwork.
  • Iranian intransigence and the proliferation of regional threats (Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) have pushed even former fence-sitters (Europe, Gulf states) into alignment.

• European Involvement:

  • Notably, the EU moves to sanction Iran and list the IRGC as a terror group reflect a rare consensus (“one issue that’s undoubtedly a consensus ... [is] the need to address the threats from Iran”—[26:25]).

7. Potential for Wider Middle East Conflict

Timestamps: 27:43–34:14

• Sectarian and Political Cleavages:

  • Kittle queries whether sectarian solidarity could lead to a unified anti-US/Israel front.
  • Olidor sees the reverse: “We don’t appreciate enough that … even the Shia communities in the Middle East … are some of the victims of this regime’s terror” ([28:36]). Many populations in the region are now actively opposed to Iran’s influence.

• Boots on the Ground:

  • U.S. policy has deliberately left open the possibility, never ruling out any options—a key difference from previous administrations ([31:34]).
  • Olidor does not anticipate a ground invasion imminently, given the operation's early success, but stresses readiness for all outcomes.

8. Legality of Executive Action and Congressional Response

Timestamps: 38:05–39:59

• Debate Over Presidential Authority:
  • Kittle and Olidor reject claims of illegality, citing constitutional powers: “It’s his decision alone as commander in chief to protect the American people. That’s exclusively the objective here.” ([38:51])
  • Olidor criticizes congressional “gratuitous” politicization during wartime.

9. Global Strategic Implications (Russia & China)

Timestamps: 39:59–42:41

• Impact on Adversaries:
  • Olidor projects a “quick downstream effect” on Russia—loss of Iranian weapon support could shift the Ukraine war.
  • China's regional ambitions are checked by the U.S. campaign’s success in undermining Iranian stability.
  • “That supply line is now being cut off by our efforts … I think it’s very real that we will see an end to the Ukraine war … the first domino to fall.” ([40:53])

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the U.S. Objective:

  “The president laid out… his fulfillment of his Article 2, Section 2 duties as president, as prescribed in the Constitution, to protect the American people against threats against them.”
  — Jacob Olidor ([02:41])

• On Regime Change:

  “That's not the American people's job. That's not America's job. It is for you, Iran. But in completing… our objectives here... you will have that opportunity.”
  — Jacob Olidor ([03:38])

• On Iran’s Adaptability:

  "Secretary Rubio mentioned ... this drone shield that Iranian... regime is thinking of. ... That's a whole new use of the drone warfare to kind of insulate them."
  — Jacob Olidor ([21:50])

• On U.S. Resolve:

  “This is a president that knows what an adversary looks like and understands the threats to the American people and takes that action.”
  — Jacob Olidor ([07:18])

• On Congressional Criticism:

  “It’s completely reckless and especially right now among Democrats, to be gratuitous to be going there.”
  — Jacob Olidor ([38:51])

• On Global Effects:

  “That supply line is now being cut off by our efforts... I think it’s very real that we will see an end to the Ukraine war ... the first domino to fall.”
  — Jacob Olidor ([40:53])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Objective & justification for action: 02:29–05:44
• Confused U.S. messaging: 05:44–07:15
• Prospects for regime change in Iran: 09:13–14:18
• Coalition-building discussion: 22:19–27:15
• Discussion on U.S. ground troop potential: 31:34–34:14
• Debate on legality of strikes and executive powers: 38:05–39:59
• Russia/China global impact: 39:59–42:41

Tone and Takeaways

• The conversation is urgent, serious, and confident—asserting the necessity and precision of U.S. action.
• Both host and guest are frank about unknowns ahead but express a sense of historic change and opportunity in the Middle East.
• Strong themes of “America First,” operational pragmatism, and coalition-based international strategy run throughout.
• The dialogue reinforces trust in U.S. leadership and the resolve to protect “the American people,” while also signaling a shift in global power alignments.

For listeners (or non-listeners), this episode offers a comprehensive, policy-driven snapshot of the new U.S. engagement in the Middle East, emphasizing both tactical maneuvers and broader ideological stakes.