‘You're Wrong' With Mollie Hemingway And David Harsanyi, Ep. 189: The Fog Of War

Summary

Federalist Radio Hour – “You’re Wrong” With Mollie Hemingway And David Harsanyi, Ep. 189: The Fog Of War
Air Date: March 4, 2026
Main Theme:
A frank, fast-paced, and analytically rich debate between Mollie Hemingway and David Harsanyi exploring America’s dramatic escalation into open conflict with Iran, the foggy realities of war planning, regime change, nuclear proliferation, and the political fallout at home. The hosts challenge each other—and the Trump administration’s messaging—on motives, strategy, and legitimacy, while also reflecting on the state of the Republican Party, American public opinion, and foreign versus domestic priorities.

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Main Episode Segments & Timestamps

• Opening Discussion: War With Iran, Historical Context, and Initial Reactions (01:30 – 08:57)
• Debating Strategy: Deterrence, Regime Change, and the Plan (Or Lack Thereof) (08:57 – 18:29)
• How Effective Were the Strikes? Skepticism Over Government Claims (11:20 – 18:29)
• Iran’s Nuclear Program and Enriched Uranium: Do We Really Know Their Capabilities? (15:13 – 18:29)
• Motivations for War & Messaging Problems (Regime Change, China, Oil, and Security) (18:29 – 23:56)
• Nuclear Arms Race: Rationality, Fear, and the Future (23:56 – 29:08)
• Is This Really a Regime Change War? Motives vs. Messaging (29:18 – 32:57)
• Public Opinion, Trump’s Political Calculus, and Appetite for War (32:57 – 36:12)
• Media & Political Pressure: Calls for Ground Invasion and Elite Commentary (36:12 – 39:28)
• Comparisons to Past Conflicts, Imminence, and Making the Case for War (43:58 – 50:29)
• War Powers, Article I Concerns, and Congressional Authorization (46:21 – 48:06)
• Who’s Driving US Action—America or Allies? The Rubio Kerfuffle (48:06 – 56:43)
• Will War With Iran Affect Domestics and the 2026 Midterms? (61:06 – 69:53)
• Bonus: Texas Politics, Republican Primaries, and Party Dynamics (72:11 – 81:39)
• Culture Corner: 'Miracle', Documentaries, and Reading Recs (82:08 – End)

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Opening: The U.S. at War With Iran—Are We Surprised?

• Longstanding Tensions: Both hosts recall Iran’s adversarial history with the U.S. (Beirut barracks bombing, Khobar Towers, hostage crisis), noting an escalation now some 47 years in the making.
• Surprise & Expectations:
  • Mollie Hemingway: “So there's no way that you could say you were surprised by the action that took place. And yet I was still somewhat surprised…” (02:39)
  • David Harsanyi: “The surprise for me was that we've talked about this forever and we never actually follow through...Trump actually now has created a credible deterrence for people who are our enemies and undermine us abroad, but also kill our citizens.” (03:37)

Is There a Plan? Regime Change, Deterrence, and Realpolitik

• Military Planning vs. Political Endgame:
  • Harsanyi suggests the U.S. had built up military assets for months and may be aiming to “weaken the regime enough that some kind of...regime change” happens organically (07:59), though he’s skeptical airstrikes alone will suffice.
  • Hemingway remains unconvinced: “I no longer believe such claims when people make them,” referencing past Pentagon overstatements regarding the impact of strikes (11:20).
• Deterrence Theory and Red Lines:
  • Harsanyi: “If you are going to create red lines...then follow through on your threats...enemies of the United States are nervous right now because Donald Trump has acted on his words.” (06:09)

Nuclear Weapons: How Close is Iran?

• Capabilities and Uncertainty:
  • Hemingway questions why Iran would refuse to negotiate unless it felt “further along in their nuke development than we realize. What if they do have nukes…?” (15:13)
  • Harsanyi: “It's not that simple...you have to figure out ways, delivery systems...But I suspect that Israel would know [if they had nukes].” (16:24)
• Transparency Problems: “We haven't, they haven't been letting people in to analyze their program...There’s a lot we don’t know in the fog of war.” (16:24)

Motives for War: Mixed Messaging, China, & Strategic Interests

• Regime Change? Or Just Weakening Iran (and China)?
  • Both hosts agree the administration’s public messaging is a muddle.
  • Harsanyi: “I think China is the reason we’re there. I think nukes are the reason. I think the straits are the reason. I think regime change probably...comes beneath that.” (29:52)
  • Hemingway: “I do think that a people who want to do a regime change, war in Iran could have done a much better job of making the case for it leading up to when we all found ourselves at war with Iran.” (32:57)
• China’s Role:
  • Harsanyi stresses the connection, noting attacks were accelerated in part to block Chinese arms sales and strategic oil flows (09:00 - 11:20).

The Nuclear Arms Race and Rationality

• Are Iranian Leaders Rational?
  • Hemingway opens the “mutually assured destruction” debate, referencing Charles Krauthammer’s argument that proliferation is inevitable (24:08).
  • Harsanyi rebuts: “Krauthammer is completely wrong...The Iranian Shia Twelvers...are not rational actors.” (25:30)
• Nuke Race Fallout: Both ponder if U.S. actions will accelerate other countries’ pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Home Front, Public Opinion, and Political Risks

• Warmaking and the Constitution:
  • Hemingway presses Harsanyi on the lack of Congressional war declaration; Harsanyi calls it “unconstitutional” but a well-established executive overreach since WWII (46:34).
• Is Public Support Durable?
  • “Fifty-fifty for anything Donald Trump does is not bad in my view...[but] Americans like when we do well and win, and they don't like when we fail and lose...they are very mercurial.” (33:15)
  • “Our involvement in the Russia-Ukrainian war started out at 90% and then it plummeted.” (32:58)
• Host Skepticism:
  • Hemingway: “I just don’t want to neglect to mention...Iran is not Iraq. Iran’s also not Venezuela.” (38:36)
• Effects on Midterms:
  • Harsanyi: “I think it will have very little effect in the end on the midterms unless some unforeseen big thing happens.” (61:58)
  • Hemingway: “I think a big part of Trump’s appeal had been that he claimed that he would not start a war...That will be a complicated message for a not friendly audience.” (63:51)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “There’s a lot we don’t know in the fog of war.” — David Harsanyi (16:41)
• “I don't believe this needs to be a long war, and I don't believe this is going to be a forever war.” — David Harsanyi (17:42)
• “The effectiveness of the military actions that we have taken in the last year is just really inspiring and admirable.” — Mollie Hemingway (71:29)
• “Americans are much more tolerant of the foreign policy adventurism if they're getting what they need at home.” — Mollie Hemingway (65:11)
• “If you want to be on our side, that’s great. If you don’t, we’re going to act in America’s best interest.” — David Harsanyi (45:28)

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Texas Politics, Republican Party, and Party Identity (72:11 – 81:39)

A lively sidebar on the Texas Senate primary, grievances with moderate incumbents like Cornyn, and the defeat of Dan Crenshaw. Frustration with the party's leadership mirrors the tensions on national war policy—a divided party facing populist insurgency and establishment inertia.

Notable zinger:

• On Texas Dem winner James Talarico—“That man has the most punchable persona I have ever seen in a politician.” — Mollie Hemingway (77:12)

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Culture Corner (82:08+)

• Both hosts recently rewatched “Miracle,” the 2004 hockey movie, agreeing the message of team over individual resonates especially now.
  • “The name on the front of the jersey is more important than the name on the back.” — Cited as a favorite line (82:35)
• Harsanyi shares a stack of book recommendations focused on Mediterranean history, Rome, Trotsky’s assassination, and the roots of modern Islamism—tying world events back to the books on his nightstand.

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Summary Takeaways

• There’s deep skepticism (especially from Hemingway) about regime change as a practical or desirable objective originating solely from air power, with real confusion over the administration’s end goals.
• Trump’s “decisive” foreign policy gets credit for breaking cycles of diplomatic dithering, but public communication is considered by both to be confusing and politically precarious.
• The hosts agree the Republican base supports Trump, but independent and Democratic skepticism could turn costly if the war drags on.
• Disagreement and doubt, not cheerleading—this isn’t a neocon echo chamber. Both hosts are wary, demanding clarity, legality, and prudence amid a fog of uncertainty.
• On the home front, Americans’ day-to-day concerns remain domestic, with the war’s impact likely limited—unless it spirals.
• Final tone: Cautious admiration for U.S./Israeli military prowess, wariness of escalation, and deep frustration with both political messaging and elite commentary.

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This episode is a must-listen for those interested in foreign policy, partisanship, the murk of military planning and the limits of U.S. power abroad—delivered in Hemingway and Harsanyi’s distinct, probing style.

Transcript

[Molly Hemingway]

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[David Harsanyi]

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[Molly Hemingway]

I don't know. It's overnight for me between Friday and Saturday.

[David Harsanyi]

We've been talking about Iran and nukes my whole career. We've been talking about the prospects of war there my whole career. I would say Iran has been an enemy of the United States as long as I can remember, you know, when I was a kid in the Iranian hostage situation. But I think it's worth mentioning that they also were behind, in many ways, the bombing of the barracks in Beirut which killed hundreds of American soldiers, the Khobar Tower bombings, which the Iranian revolutionary which the Islamic revolutionary regard participated in planning, probably, and numerous other kidnappings and hostage taking. I mean, they have been, whatever you think about war, there is no denying, I think, that they have been an enemy of the United States for 47 years. Were you surprised we did this? What was your reaction?

[Molly Hemingway]

It's kind of funny because in addition to everything you say, we had been watching a massive buildup in the region of all of our military assets. So there's no way that you could say you were surprised by the action that took place. And yet I was still somewhat surprised. I had, I mean, I'll just say I thought I understood Trump's approach to foreign policy on not engaging in a full fledged war to achieve objectives. And so I erroneously thought that the buildup was more a threat to get Iran to make concessions that might be supported by a, by a much less fully engaged war operation than the one that we're seeing. Does that make sense?

[David Harsanyi]

Yeah, probably. Well, for me, it's, it's a little different. The surprise, the surprise for me was that we've talked about this forever and we never actually follow through. Iranian regime will go and do, you know, engage in negotiations forever, make all kinds of promises, try to extract all kinds of goodies from the United States and in the end just break them and then we repeat the process. I think Trump broke, broke that failed feckless policy that's gone on forever from. There's an Axios report. Take it for what you will that what happened was Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump. Obviously they have been building up, as you say, for, for months now. So it's not like there wasn't military in place and a plan in place. People think there's no plan or fooling themselves. But that Netanyahu saw or the Mossad saw that, that all the Iranian leadership was going to be at a meeting. I don't know why these guys keep showing up to meetings. I think it's a big problem for them. But they were going to be at a meeting and it was an opportunity to be, to behead the Iranian regime and, and Trump took him up on it. He gave his State of the Union barely mentioned Iran, really downplayed it, not to spook them. And then because the Iranians had not been open to a deal, I mean, Trump, if it's true, Witkoff and all the people in Geneva laid out a very clear achievable deal for the Iranians to sign. The surprise is that we've gone through this so often and that Trump actually now has created a credible deterrence for people who are our enemies and undermine us broad, but also kill our citizens.

[Molly Hemingway]

So, so, okay, a couple, couple questions on that. You say that Trump has created a credible deterrence for these people.

[David Harsanyi]

Well, for others now.

[Molly Hemingway]

For, for others. What does that mean?

[David Harsanyi]

It means that you, if you are going to create red lines, which Trump. Listen, Trump says a lot of things that, you know, he says a lot of things.

[Molly Hemingway]

He's been fairly consistent for decades that he does not believe Iran can have nukes. Right. The White House. The White House sent out 70 times that Trump has said it over the decades.

[David Harsanyi]

Right.

[Molly Hemingway]

That is whatever else, other inconsistencies he may have, that is one consistency he

[David Harsanyi]

has had, they cannot have nukes is a consistent position he's had. I saw 2011 video of him talking about it, and I think there's videos going back even earlier that is consistent. But Trump said, you have to stop killing civilians. You have to stop in your ballistics program, you have to stop enriching uranium. They do whatever they want because they know and they knew that there would really not be any kind of real repercussion. And I think our enemies around the world have learned, including in Venezuela, that Donald Trump is going to act. It's not just going to be diplomacy forever. If I were an enemy of the United States right now, I mean, I see a lot of people say, oh, does this mean that, you know, other people can just attack weaker countries and whenever they want, the US has given them an excuse? No, I think that other countries and the enemies of the United States are nervous right now because Donald Trump has acted on his words and his promises and followed through on his threats in two places. I mean, it meant it more than that, actually, but. And it is a decisive action and that if they do something, you know, to undermine our interest around the world, that there's a price to pay. Do you not agree with that?

[Molly Hemingway]

Oh, no. I'm just curious to hear anything on what's going on here. But I'm more curious about. You said that people were foolish if they think there has not been a well executed plan here. So maybe you can tell us a little more about how you see this playing out over the next hours, days, weeks, months. Like, what is the plan exactly?

[David Harsanyi]

Well, I, I don't. I meant a military plan. Anyone who plans for how things are going to shake out in the Middle east or makes predictions in that way are fools because they rarely come true. I think the best case scenario, and the hope probably of the Trump administration is that they weaken the regime enough that some kind of. And I probably there is some plan to try to spark this kind of organic regime change either by finding someone. Well, let me put it this way, in the way that we tamed Venezuela and found someone who is willing to basically work with us to some extent. I don't know if that's going to work out. I think regime change solely through air power is incredibly difficult. It's not that it can never happen, but it is difficult. There's a report that we're giving Kurt that we're we're arming Kurds in the north. I don't know if that's true. It was reported by CNN. And what's her name? Natasha Bertrand.

[Molly Hemingway]

Russia collusion hoaxer Natasha Bertrand.

[David Harsanyi]

So I would, I would not, you know, I'd like to see more on that though. I don't know why the Kurds shouldn't have a state of the Palestine. Everyone supports the Palestinian statehood. Kurds have many more people obviously it's very complicated. So, so in worst case scenario we have gelded the Iranian regime and there are very good reasons to do that outside of the obvious. We could get to that in a minute. Their ballistic program, missile program is in shadow, you know, shattered. Their leadership is shattered. Their best minds and people with military, their best military minds and those who have the most experience have been killed. So they're probably, you know and, and I still think there's work to do on the nuclear end. I mean you may have to send in some kind of special forces to deal with that here and there. I, I don't know what I think the problem here is that, that we, because of the neoconservatives of two decades ago we have this idea that when you go into war there's this plan, you can write out this, that these technocrats can write out how everything's going to go and that there's an easy solution. I don't think there's an easy solution but that, that shouldn't handcuff us from acting when we have to act. It's not our responsibility to have to clean up every country we bomb. These people have been our enemies. They have killed Americans, they have allowed the Chinese to essentially they're basically becoming a client state of the, of the ChiComs. I saw a story, you know, four days before the bombing Reuters reported that Iran nearest deal to buy supersonic anti ship missiles from China. You can't let Iran have that. I mean there's so much oil and commerce goes through near, near them through the straits that America had to act on that in that way as well. 90% of their crude oil goes to China. The same thing with Venezuela. It was really about China in some sense for the United States and I think that's important as well. I don't know, I'm all over the place because it's such a big topic but I, I don't know that there's a specific plan that's easily written out from A B to C. Well, I think that the hope is that there'll be regime change and Worst case scenario, Iran is immensely weakened.

[Molly Hemingway]

Okay, I have a, I have like three more questions as a result of that or comments. The first one is that you said that the ballistic missile program had been shattered, that the nuclear program had been shattered. And I will say I no longer believe such claims when people make them. I feel somewhat foolish for having believed Trump and his administration about how effective the massive strikes against the nuclear facilities were in June. I in fact, remember that the media came out shortly thereafter and said that might have not been so effective. Everybody lambasted them for saying that, only to have Trump himself say a few months later, yeah, actually we had to go after them again because it really didn't matter what we did in June. I mean, that's not how he said it, but you know what I mean, we were told that we had that like this massive expenditure and effort had been really effective. And I don't think people thought by that that that meant we would be in a regime change war within a few months. Did you.

[David Harsanyi]

Can I just talk about the initial thing that you said for a second? Yeah. Obviously Donald Trump exaggerates. He said obliterated, I think was the word. Now all of a sudden we're going to take him very literally. I think we shouldn't do that. I think they were set back tremendously, but that is not the reason that Israel and the United States move now. Obviously, if we are to believe Steve Witkoff, the, the Iranians admit they have about a lot of enriched uranium already that we needed them to hand over, that they had moved farther than we thought. When people say the bomb is imminent, they don't mean that could, they could be imminent forever. They have to finish it off. They could stay in one place in that timeline forever. The thing though is the attack needed to happen probably now or soon because Iran is at its weakest right now. That doesn't mean they haven't been set back. That means that now is the least dangerous time for the United States military to do this. At some point, if, if, if the Chinese weaponry gets to Iran, if we let them have tons of ballistic missiles, it's going to become a far bigger war. It could become a much bigger quagmire. Right now we have air superiority. Unfortunately, we lost four sold American service men. And, but the reason to move now is that they're at their weakest. So the idea that, that they weren't set back, I think they were set back and they are now at their weakest. So waiting for them to rearm was going to be dangerous. Especially since they wouldn't agree to the deal that was laid out for them which asked them to stop their nuke program. Why can't, if there is no nuke program and it is not dangerous and they are not on the cusp, why can't they agree to a deal to hand over their enriched uranium to shut down their programs that are buried deep in mountainside sides that cluster bombs can't get to? I mean, you know, so I think that's the reason.

[Molly Hemingway]

Okay, this is, this is an interesting thing too. I'd said I don't believe when people say we've smashed their capabilities it's not just because of engaging in a new round here, but there was a story that one of the facilities that we had attacked during that 12 day campaign in June is being left untouched right now. And it is the one where the Iranians are storing their enriched uranium. Right? It's the Isfahan facility.

[David Harsanyi]

That's what they say. We don't, I mean we don't know.

[Molly Hemingway]

You ask like why aren't they turning it over? And I think that's actually an interesting question. I don't know the answer, but I'm wondering if, correct me if I'm. This might just sound crazy. What if they're further along in their nuke development than we realize? What if they do have nukes, for instance? Is that crazy?

[David Harsanyi]

No, but there's, it's not, I mean it's not that simple.

[Molly Hemingway]

No one's, no one's in there because like I'm pretty sure there's a short distance between having enriched uranium and basically having a nu.

[David Harsanyi]

But you have to figure out ways, delivery systems and I mean it's not that simple but.

[Molly Hemingway]

Yeah, right. But we have very little other than Israel apparently knowing everything about where everybody is in Iran. I feel like we don't have great insight. We haven't, they haven't been letting people in to analyze their program. What if they're already there and then if so, what does that mean? I think it could explain some of their reluctance to negotiate, but I don't know if that, I, I really don't know if what I just said doesn't make sense.

[David Harsanyi]

Maybe I, I, I suspect that Israel no. Would know. It seems like they're really embedded in that country.

[Molly Hemingway]

What if they do know?

[David Harsanyi]

Maybe they do, but, so maybe that's why we have.

[Molly Hemingway]

Maybe we don't know, but maybe the US government and Israel knows and maybe

[David Harsanyi]

that explains it would be, it would not be something to share until it was secured and all over. Yeah. Or maybe, you know, there, there are, maybe there are humanitarian reasons not to bomb there. Maybe you're, you know, maybe you're going to release radioactive material. I don't know any of that. I'm just saying there could be reasons. We don't know. There's a lot we don't know in the fog of war. And, you know, Israel's not going to share that. The CIA is not going to share that with us. And we, I don't have a lot of faith that the CIA knows what's going on with weapons of mass destruction, but there's a far better case here that the Iranians are far closer and trying than there was for Iraq when we invaded Iraq. Everyone says regime change, war. I just think that's aspirational. I just, I don't really believe, like, that The Israelis think that through air power there's going to. I think they want a regime change because they want a friendly nation there, which should be. That's this. Iran should not be an enemy of Israel or the United States. But it is complicated. I think it's. 35% of Iran are Arabs or other minorities. It's like there are a lot of people in rural areas who are, who are pro, you know, regime. It's in the big cities where people aren't. So I'm saying it's complicated. I don't know about the regime change. I, I hope it happens, but it's not really our responsibility to go down there and make it happen. I think we need to try to help people if we can, but not at the expense of American lives. And I don't believe Donald Trump's going to. I don't believe this needs to be a long war, and I don't believe this is going to be a forever war. And I don't believe that we're going to have massive troop deployments. We don't even. We didn't even think. We didn't even send enough troops to invade any place. I don't know why people think that's going to happen. We have 50,000 people in the area. Yeah.

[Molly Hemingway]

So let's go back to you. You said you wanted to talk about reasons for the war, and Trump has given a variety of different explanations or reasons for the war. One of them is that he does want to change the regime, which has already happened by virtue of killing off. I mean, it's happened, at least to some extent, that I'm being flippant, through the killing, through the killing of the supreme leader. But he's talked also about how they have some people in mind who might be good for replacement, but they got killed too, or who might be candidates for replacement, not good for replacement. And then we had the, the strike. You. You made the joke about how all everyone was gathered at once, and that's how we were able to take out 40 of their leaders. But then when they met to replace the leader, we took out that meeting too. People have been making jokes like, have these people not heard of emails? Or zoom, or, you know, is there a way for them to gather without all being in the same room and getting killed by their. Their enemies?

[David Harsanyi]

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[Molly Hemingway]

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[David Harsanyi]

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[Molly Hemingway]

So among the reasons that Trump has given for why he launched this war was regime change. And I do not know how regime change can be affected from the air. And so I am, or I always think of it this way. There are ranges of possibilities. I think there's like a 5% chance that you could affect regime change from the air. Trump tends to be lucky. Maybe he'll be lucky here. But if regime change is a goal, as he has stated, I'm wondering how long we wait to see if that 5% chance of being able to do it without a ground invasion works or does he give up on that goal or what?

[David Harsanyi]

I don't think we can say. There's been pristine Coherence here in messaging. I think the messaging has been pretty bad. One reason for that probably is because there are an array of reasons that we're going after Iran and it's difficult to explain. So the Trump administration is trying to find the most saleable reasons and objectives to sell the American people. I don't think they've done a great job on that at all. You can affect regime change in different sorts of ways in the world. You can keep killing leaders until you get to someone who's going to do business with you or maybe someone who's just a Mossad agent. You can also do this and hope for. And I think this is one of the hopes, a coup not of the Revolutionary Guard, but the regular army. If you really believe, and maybe people don't, that they can't have nukes, that we don't want them, we don't want them. Iran to be a, an outpost for Chinese military, that, you know, they're our enemy. These are secondary concerns in the long run. We're not, you know, we don't have to rebuild countries. We don't, I mean, it's their problem in the end, we can do what we can to help them, but they were an enemy of our allies of the United States. You have the entire, every Gulf nation now essentially together against Iran. There are long standing threat to our Sunni Gulf allies who are our friends. You know, this is the real world. We have to have allies. And obviously Israel was an ally of ours despite the anger of most people. So we're a lot of people. And if you believe all that, we get to act militarily without having to worry that every single thing is going to work out exactly how we want in the long run within that country, I think. And we have no responsibility to rebuild that country either if we don't want. I think that that's an old, you know, one of these antiquated ideas that we should dispense with.

[Molly Hemingway]

How many countries have nuclear weapons? Right now it's like nine, something like that.

[David Harsanyi]

Pakistan, India, Israel, Pakistan, India, Israel, North, British, French, France, Turkey.

[Molly Hemingway]

Do we already say Russia? Us, China. Okay, so whatever. It's a, not a ton, do you think? And then we saw Korea yesterday. I, I got them yesterday. Poland said that they were going to work toward getting nukes. I am reminded of something Charles Krauthammer said on Special Report one night. All right. I mean, I remember him saying it that night. I don't know if he said it on air that he thought that all countries should have nukes that that was the only way to handle things going forward. Like you couldn't keep people from getting nukes, so just let everybody have them and then it works for this mutually assured destruction, that kind of thing. He would say to, to be counterintuitive, but do I think also about how with Libya, we forced them to give up their nukes and it led to a greater ease for us to effect regime change from the air and it's. It was a mess, right? Will this not make countries realize that the only way that they can protect themselves is to get have nukes and to start a race toward that? I'm not even saying that as a bad thing, given what Krauthammer said. But how would this make people less likely to work very hard to develop nukes?

[David Harsanyi]

I mean, if I thought my country was going to be carpet bombed, if I was making nukes, I think would make me less likely to try to get one. But more than that, Krauthammer is completely wrong. I mean, Krauthammer would have been right if you were talking about rational actors in the world. Even dictatorships are rational actors to some extent. The Iranian Shia Twelvers, the revolutionaries of the Khomeini revolutionaries are not rational actors. If they were rational actors, they wouldn't have put their country in this position for decade after decade. They're waiting for the 12th Imam. I'm not saying they're all going to blow themselves up, but their view is completely different.

[Molly Hemingway]

I do agree that their religious ideology is dangerous and problematic and does not match in a world with our values. I have grown to dislike when people say that someone's crazy. Crazy. We hear this all the time. It's like, you know, whether it's North Korea, Russia, Iran, rather than looking at them as countries that we disagree with or who we think their ideology is wrong, we just say, oh, they're crazy. Do you remember when Putin invaded Ukraine and everyone was like, he's so crazy on chemo drugs. That's why he's doing this. And it was like, well, actually you can disagree with him and completely see what his strategy is here with Ukraine. Like, it actually made perfect sense. And so I grow, I just, there's something I like, react against. When people say, oh, this regime because their people are getting killed, that shows that they're crazy. Shouldn't we start with the assumption that people are acting in what they perceive as their interest? And in fact, maybe they really do think that Israel and the US Will literally wipe them off the map unless they have Nukes. And so they see it as an existential threat that way.

[David Harsanyi]

That's not a rational position. I don't, I'm not saying they're mentally ill or crazy in that way. I just believe their rational, or what they think is a rational outlook on the world. Is Islamic fundamentalism a cosmic generational view of society? It is irrational in the, in the sense of geopolitics or of domestic politics to bring destitution to your people to try to get nukes they're not getting. Do you honestly think that they believe that Israel can wipe them off the map? Or once Israel has nukes right now, they could have wiped them off the map a long time ago. America could wipe them off the map a long time ago. I think Russia is a completely different story. Putin is completely rational. He's doing things he thinks are best for Russia. I just, I think they're wrong. But, and you. We talked about nukes in North Korea, and that's a perfect example of why you can't let an actor like this get nukes. It literally protects them completely. They could go out if they had nukes and, and spread terrorism, kill Americans. There's nothing we can do that wouldn't lead to some kind of nuclear confrontation.

[Molly Hemingway]

That's all true. And I, I tend to agree with you. I once again, kind of want to see what, what is the game plan for eradicating that as a threat? You kill them, how many of them

[David Harsanyi]

and for how long until you get to some. Well, at some point you're going to get to someone who's going to do business with you or not, then we just leave it. And then they're incredibly weakened. Like, I'm not saying, you know, and if you have to go back 10 years from now, if they're starting up a new program, you go back. There's no. We don't live in utopia. There are bad guys in this world and sometimes you have to deal with them.

[Molly Hemingway]

No, no, I, I'm, I'm just trying to listen, trying to learn on this new regime change war in the Middle East.

[David Harsanyi]

I, I don't buy the regime change war.

[Molly Hemingway]

What was that?

[David Harsanyi]

I don't buy that it's actually a regime change war. I think that American politicians are always trying to appeal to the charity and goodwill of American voters. I think that's true. And, and they want, you know, that's a selling point.

[Molly Hemingway]

You think, you think calling for regime change war in the, in the Persian, with the Persian Empire is a selling point for the American people because I actually. Okay, so interesting.

[David Harsanyi]

I mean I think there's a difference. We have to believe there's a difference between imposing democracy on people and trying to help them take their own country back. Persians don't run Iran, Khomeinius run Iran. It's a complete tyranny. So I think that we try to appeal to Americans ideals of freedom in a way. I don't think. I think China is the reason we're there. I think nukes are the reason we're there. I think the straits are the reason we're there. I don't think. I think regime change probably in the minds of people who are planning this and care about this comes beneath that.

[Molly Hemingway]

I mean, I think most Americans, particularly anyone alive since the late 70s understands that Iran is a hostile foreign power. They have engaged in hostile actions against the United States for decades. Totally agree with you there, I think. Well, I saw Tom Cotton say yesterday they have been an imminent threat to the United States since 1979. And I was like, I think we're going to work on that definition of the word imminent there buddy. But they have been a thorn in our side for that long period of time. How much you view them as a day to day threat I think varies widely. I think most Americans do not perceive a daily threat from Iran even if they don't like them. Right. So that also relates to how much Americans are willing to do in terms of time, money, lives, all that to constrain the Iranian regime. And some people want to obliterate the Iranian regime. There's, there is a wide, there's a, there, there's so much. People have very different ideas about what should be done to constrain them all the way up to obliterate them. And for 47 years we have not done what we've done in the last year. Right, right. And so I do think that a people who want to do a regime change, war in Iran should have, could have done a much better job of making the case for it leading up to when we all found ourselves at war with Iran. And I don't mean that in the way that we haven't been at war with Iran since the late 70s. Yeah, I get that. But this dramatic escalation of action I think is something that could. Have you already alluded to it. The communication has been weak. I think that Americans will tolerate a very short period of time of action here. Although the polls show that what is, I mean I saw Fox News poll, I think it was 50, 50, 50% of Americans support this 50% don't. That's a pretty low percentage on the early days of a war.

[David Harsanyi]

So I disagree.

[Molly Hemingway]

Those numbers always go down, right? Our involvement in the Russia Ukrainian war started out at like 90% and then it plummeted. Starting out at 50. 50 is not where you want to be heading into what could be a very lengthy campaign. You disagree? Tell me why.

[David Harsanyi]

I disagree because most issues, when you look at these, first of all, they ask the question in weird ways. But most issues, when you look basically mirror where people stand on Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a singular figure in that sense among Republicans. I saw many polls show, like there's 82% support for what he's done right now. You're right. Of course, if it goes on and on, it's, you know, that will fall. But 50, 50 for anything Donald Trump does is not bad in my view. I would say this, that the Americans like when we do well and win and they don't like when we fail and lose. They are not as, especially on war. They're very mercurial. You remember with Iraq, everyone wanted to go in. Once it went bad, it's like no one ever wanted to go. And everyone's like, I don't know why we went there, but. So I think you're right. It has to be a short term and decisive move. We can't get bogged down there, and I don't think we will. And if it's successful in some way, I don't mean regime change, but in, in finding someone there who will do business with us, a surrender of some sort, something like that, I think it's going to be a success. I think most Republicans are fine with it. I think most Americans, you know, will. Democrats will be against it because they're just against anything Donald Trump does.

[Molly Hemingway]

I, I want to say that I am trying to give two weeks of grace. I, I'm trying to give two weeks here. I assume, like you do, that they have a plan. They're not sharing the plan for a reason, that, that maybe that will either come out or develop or something within two weeks. So I am doing my very best.

[David Harsanyi]

You, you've told me in the past, right?

[Molly Hemingway]

You hear it. I'm trying very.

[David Harsanyi]

I hear you. You've told me in the past that you're fine with us bombing people and getting out of there, our enemies. And not just.

[Molly Hemingway]

I actually love it. I think it's okay.

[David Harsanyi]

Iran has no air defense. Already gone. Its capacity to launch missiles is completely diminished. Its plan to, to its plan to bomb Gulf states, including Qatar has backfired. They did that because they wanted those states to beseech the Americans to stop. Instead, they just rallied those countries against them. So I don't, everything has gone well as far as as a military operation can go. I am, I don't know why people aren't incredibly impressed by the American military and the Israeli military. So I don't really get what all the hand wringing is about.

[Molly Hemingway]

You don't, you don't understand why there might be skepticism about a regime change war in the Middle East. You don't.

[David Harsanyi]

I would if we landed troops and invaded the place and tried to implement. But no, I don't see.

[Molly Hemingway]

The New York Post was amplifying something Trump said about how maybe there will be troops there. Now, I think if you read his comments, he wasn't actually saying that so much. I think the New York Post is trying to encourage it. You saw the Wall Street Journal say the worst mistake Trump could do here is just think, you know, mission accomplished and not engage in a lengthy regime change war.

[David Harsanyi]

They didn't say lengthy. They said that he has to finish the job that we started. Which is correct.

[Molly Hemingway]

There's already pressure there. And then you had his best friend Lindsey Graham saying, please join Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon. So you cannot be, you cannot be confused.

[David Harsanyi]

You're always exact, you're, you always exaggerate just slightly enough. He didn't say there's no ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel. There's a bombing on Hezbollah, which is an Iranian proxy which launched missiles at them. Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton are the two people that, that, that are constantly brought up because they're literally like the two full blown neocons left in the world. And you know, most senators didn't seem, they seem pretty level headed about all this. You know, Republicans, I don't think, I just think there's an exaggeration of the, of the, of the appetite for any kind of invasion. Trump says stuff all the time. Obviously there's going to be maybe some special forces landing to do this or that, but there's not. We don't have the troops for invasion there. It's not going to happen. I mean, it could be. Listen, I shouldn't make any predictions on foreign policy. You never know where things go. But so far it seems like an incredibly success. I mean, and I just want to

[Molly Hemingway]

say on this, like my mentioning of Lindsey Graham, who did call for Trump to join Israel's efforts in Lebanon, that I do think that Trump has given us reason to trust him rather than freak out. Let me say there's a range here. It's possible that he's just hubristic about how effective all of his previous efforts have been. And he thinks that, oh, well, if we could do this amazing thing in Venezuela with no loss of life for Americans, and you know, obviously there were quite a few casualties, but no loss of life. Right. Did I get that right?

[David Harsanyi]

I think someone was shot maybe, but,

[Molly Hemingway]

oh, my God, definitely people were shot. If you watch the State of the Union, that helicopter pilot, the helicopter after being shot five times in the leg, which I just can't even fathom how incredible that guy is. But I, I'm, I just don't want to neglect to mention someone if they were. But he might have gotten hubristic over it and said, oh, yeah, we can, we can also do this with Iran, you know, which is maybe a little bit more challenging. People are like, iran is not Iraq. Iran's also not Venezuela. You know, these are different countries with radically different situations going on. But having said that, I still think Trump has done a really good job with foreign policy over both of his administrations. And so that also keeps me from completely being like, oh, wow, I didn't realize we elected George W. Bush here.

[David Harsanyi]

Oh, come on. The claim of people don't know what neoc or neoconservatism is morphed into this word where people attack anyone who believes that we should act militarily. Yes, he's hubristic. He's hubristic about everything. But the military has been incredibly effective, I think, because it acts in decisive ways with, with a target in mind, with an end game in mind and finishes what they have to do. The Venezuelan stuff has been great. The Iran stuff so far. It's, it's tragic that anyone dies, but when they're. By the way, I think Donald Trump said that, that, that we're going to lose people. I think he said that in one of the interviews. So.

[Molly Hemingway]

No, he said it when he announced that he had launched the war.

[David Harsanyi]

Right. And that's going to happen. You're right. Iran is not Iraq, but also Iran isn't as dangerous as people make them out to. They would be if they were allowed to have nukes to defend themselves with and ballistic missile programs and supersonic missiles from China. I think that's incredibly important to point out. This squeezes China big time. They get a lot of oil from Iran. They get oil from vent. They got oil from Venezuela. I can't, I, I just assume that China was such a big part of the discussion before doing this for the United States, the Gizrael has different goals, regional goals. And incidentally, the attack in Lebanon is not against the Lebanese government. It's against the Hezbollah militia, which functions as a nation state within Lebanon. And the Lebanese government is starting to arrest Hezbollah. I mean, Israel is actually helping Lebanon. I don't think it would be the end. I don't think they need American help there.

[Molly Hemingway]

But to your point about why now are we doing this? Iran has never been weaker. Iran has propped up every single one of these things. I mean, it's basically Iranian outposts of Hezbollah, Hamas, all these things. So I totally get there as well.

[David Harsanyi]

Doc. The October, someone mentioned this. I think it's correct in one way, but the October 7th attack was Pearl harbor in the Middle East. It changed everything. Israel is a limit, you know, weaken Hezbollah. Syria is, yeah, we'll see what happens with that bin Laden guy. But Syria is out of Assad's hand. Iran is weakened. Even the Houthis aren't shooting, firing missiles. Really, the whole Middle east has changed. You know, never know where that goes. Like maybe once Iran's not a threat, that the tension between Israel and the Arab nations will be inflamed again. You never know what happens. But it's changed everything.

[Molly Hemingway]

This is just a side thing, but I want to say I am always tremendously impressed with the intel that Israel has and how effective it is that they knew where this meeting and who would be at this meeting. That was the reason for the initial strike and it was just, and then that they knew about the second meeting and they took out the, the people who were gathered to vote on the new Supreme Leader. And it just makes me wonder why they were so bad at understanding what was about to happen on October 7th. It's like, how can you be so good at knowing, you know, who the dentist of the Supreme Leader is in Iran but not knowing your immediate, like neighborly threat?

[David Harsanyi]

I, I, I, I think there are a couple of reasons for that. One is they didn't, Israel didn't take them seriously enough anymore and didn't have embedded and, and it's because Hamas is so lo fi that actually hurts. I think intel where you actually have to get people on the ground. So for instance, I read that the Israelis had hacked the camera systems on the traffic camera systems in Tehran and that's how they knew where everyone was driving all the time and where they'd be. It's very difficult to do that in God, that kind of St. Gaza. Also Iranian spying on The Iranians and others has been, it's not like they started this, you know, a few days ago. They've been doing this for decades. And they're just embedded. Like do you know Eli Cohen was in Syria. He was in the 60s. The Israelis had a spy in Syria. Almost became like, like the defense minister of the country, right until they, he, he, he was found out. He was one of the great spies of all time. Probably he worked his way up. I suspect there are Eli Cohen's in Iran right now. It just seems like they know everything that's happening and that if you're a

[Molly Hemingway]

lot live, this could get someone killed. So the next supreme leader could be an Eli Cohen.

[David Harsanyi]

That'd be great.

[Molly Hemingway]

I wanted to mention I saw this Tweet from Michael McFall, Russia Collusion Hoaxer. Michael McFall, who is at, he works for Condi Rice out at Hoover, I think and is one of the stupidest people I've ever followed on Twitter. But he was saying that Trump had done a bad thing with this invasion because he hadn't followed the highly effective George W. Bush model. I think he might be a Bushy, but I think he also was a Democrat, Democrat appointed ambassador to Russia or something. He was like, you know, Bush spent months making the case for wmd and he took that case to the American people and the United nations and he built together this massive coalition of the willing and he did a ground invasion. And Trump didn't do any of those things. And that's why Trump's bad. And I was like, okay, I actually do agree that a case should have been made or that it should be made now maybe. But I'm like, I hadn't felt so great about the operation that Trump had undertook until I read Michael McFaul's reasoning for why it was a failure.

[David Harsanyi]

Yeah, he's one of the worst. I mean all those, all those pseudo intellectual foreign policy guys are terrible. And Trump, who does not care about any of that, blew up so many of their norms that it's like

[Molly Hemingway]

at

[David Harsanyi]

some point we were captured by this idea that we had to go out into the world and explain ourselves to the United nations to get a bunch of countries to sign on before we acted. Like, whatever you think of Iran, the idea that we have to go to Europe and make sure that the British are okay with us doing something and that we need to build coalitions with a bunch of countries, even if it's the right thing to do is crazy. And I think that Trump doesn't care very much about that. If you want to be on our side, that's great. If you don't, we're going to act in America's best interest. The other thing that you mentioned earlier is this notion that there has to be an imminent threat and imminent. First of all, imminent is a malleable word. It could mean a lot of things. But why can't we act on our long term interests as well? It's easier to take out Iran today than five years from now when they're loaded again. Let's do it. There's no reason not to do it.

[Molly Hemingway]

Okay, so that does remind me of something I wanted to ask you. Going back to the war, and I know we should probably wrap this up here, but you are a big fan of Article 1 authority.

[David Harsanyi]

Yes. I think it's unconstitutional what we're doing.

[Molly Hemingway]

Why are you not screaming about it like you scream about tariffs? Is it because you support the underlying action or what?

[David Harsanyi]

No, I think that it's been decimated. We haven't declared war since World War II. Woops. Are not a declaration of war. And we, we used one from 2000 for like 10 wars. I mean, even in Vietnam, to some extent, Korea. I mean, we're talking about major long term military conflicts that were probably unconstitutional. Right? Right. When it comes to tariffs, on the other hand, it's Donald Trump who's creating those precedents to undermine the Constitution. So there is a difference. I wish my. I don't even know if this falls under the War Powers Act. What he's doing, I don't know. I think he should have a window because in, in modern warfare there are legitimate emergencies, not like a trade imbalance or something that you have to act if you let the enemy know you're going to act. If you're making the case publicly, can undermin undermine and hurt and kill American citizens? Yeah, I, I would prefer very much that they go to Congress. I think that's the right thing to do. I think it was wrong when they didn't do it for Libya. I'm consistently held that position since Truman, probably since Jefferson. American presidents have essentially, most of the time, unless it was very easy for them, like, you know, World War II or something, ignored constitutional needs for Congress to approve warfare.

[Molly Hemingway]

That does remind me, I thought it was interesting, the kerfuffle about Marco Rubio coming out and explaining why the action was taken at the time it was taken and Congress does. I mean there, there is an effort within the administration to show that what they did was lawful. Right. And so you have to have like A reason for why you were doing it it or why you were doing it now. And Marco Rubio said someone was going to attack Iran and when that happened, there would be retaliatory, retaliatory strikes against US Interests in the region. Basically because of our involvement in the region, we have outposts in most countries there and that Iran would strike those. And so we decided to take action preemptively to constrain Iran's ability to kill Americans. It was seemed like a very legal, like a good legal argument for why we were taking action. And everyone kind of freaked out because he was saying Israel was about to strike Iran and that's why we did it. They were seeing this as like a claim that Israel had forced our hand. Then Bibi Netanyahu, well, then Mike Johnson says the same thing. And then Bibi Netanyahu goes on Sean Hannity that night, and he says, I have been trying to convince presidents for 40 years to join our efforts against Iran, and only Trump was able to be convinced. And that's why he's the greatest wartime president and blah, blah, blah. So it was kind of an interesting interview. I even watched both JD Vance and Bibi Netanyahu on television, which I rarely do, just to see what they having to say about it. But I assume, given what I know about you, that you don't have a problem with what was said and that this is just them explaining the legal case for why now, plus the realities of the situation, which is that Israel is our great ally and they're in a much greater conflict here. But then Trump came out the next day and he was like, no, I'm the one who forced Israel into war. Which is a very Trumpian thing to say. But also, then you go back to the beginning of why did we do this now? You know, like there's been unclear messaging about it.

[David Harsanyi]

All the kerfuffle around Marco Rubio was that a lot of people went online and lied about what he said, took a snippet of what he said, missed the later explanation, which was very clear that the US Was going to do this anyway. The idea, first of all, that Donald Trump can be coerced or something into. Into fighting war reminds me of the Russia collusion hoax. It's the idea that Donald Trump doesn't make decisions, that he is under the spell of other people. Last summer, there were planes in the air. Israeli IDF planes or air force planes were going to bomb Iran. And Trump literally tweeted out, Benjamin Netanyahu, bring back those planes. And then he Did. Yeah, but more than that, further reporting shows that it was Israel that saw that all these high level Iranian officials were going to be meeting. They went to Donald Trump with that or the United States and the United States said, let's do it now. It was going to be done sooner or later. I believe under Trump, he's been, like we said, talking about this forever. And the idea, and Israel and the United States work together because they're allies in the Middle East. The idea that, that we're doing this just for Israel or something is, is ridiculous. It's just ridiculous. We're not allowed to have allies anymore. Like everyone reads everything into this cooperation as some kind of conspiracy to entra bend Benjamin Netanyahu, just like Churchill, right in World War II, is allowed to go to the President of the United States and make the case for why we an ally in certain ways. I don't understand what the big conspiracy here is.

[Molly Hemingway]

I actually didn't understand what the big conspiracy was either. I do highly encourage people to listen or read Marco Rubio's entire statement to the press because I think, I think first of all, it was a great statement and I think he did a very good job except for the part that his reasoning for why we were doing this against Iran. I mean, you're getting like 12 different reasons and the messaging truly could not be worse. But he comes out and he says, okay, the reason why we did this is we want to harm their ballistic missile capabilities and their naval assets. The reason why we did this now is because Israel was about to strike them and we knew that if they struck them that there would be retaliatory, retaliatory action against the US So that's why we did it now. But he says multiple times, we knew that Israel was going to act and so we knew that that was going to get Americans killed. And that's why we joined them when they set the timeline. Now people hear that and they're like, this is horrible. Well, I, I kind of get the argument that we should be setting the timeline and not our like weaker ally, Israel, but I think it's over reading the situation because what does he begin with? With we're already going to do it, right? And then someone specifically asks about like, sounds like there wasn't an imminent threat. And this is his weakest answer. I think he's like, well there was because Israel was about to attack them and when that happened, that would make it an imminent threat. But then they're like, are you saying that you were forced to do this because Israel. And he's like, no, you know, number one, this action had to happen, and it needed to happen within the next year and a half because of where they were, where they were headed with their nuclear program. Right. And then also, yeah, yes, it happened now because of what Israel was about to do. It's, you know, he specifically says like, no, but then, yes. So there was a bit of muddling on that, but I think it's okay to just be honest about the situation. Meaning, I mean, I. It has been reported that I, that I was in a meeting with Bibi a few months ago and asked about this issue, whether he was trying to get the US Involved in a war. And it has been reported that he said that Iran was a threat to the U.S. there was some discussion about that, whether that is an accurate representation of, you know, whether the imminent threat was to the US Or Israel. But I see no problem with just being honest. None of this is like cut and dry. It's not like Iran is on our border, but we do have interests throughout the region that can be debated whether that's working out well for people or not. I think the vast majority of Americans support how we, how we are engaged in the region. I could be wrong. So I don't see why it's got to be like. I think it's only fraught because there are anti Semitic elements on left and right who try to make it fraught. Does that make sense?

[David Harsanyi]

Yeah. They want to blame the Jews for why we're at war, which is fine. They can do it, but they don't. So either. Most of those arguments are gibberish, but many of them are by. People don't understand the dynamic between the two countries or the Middle east at all. The, the very idea. Israel doesn't do anything without, I mean, big. Without permission, in essence, from the United States. If Donald Trump told them, no, you're not doing it that day, they wouldn't do it that day. Israel is not dictating terms in the large.

[Molly Hemingway]

You can't get mad at people for taking Marco Rubio at his word that that action was going to take place, regardless of what we said about it.

[David Harsanyi]

I think that talking point is cya. Right. I think that they keep saying imminent threat, which can mean many, many things. And they came up with a reason to, you know, for. To backfill that claim because that's what Americans want to hear, that there was a threat and you went to war because there was an imminent threat.

[Molly Hemingway]

But he was asked legally, you know, legally and Ethically, you do have to make a case for why you're engaging in war. Just war theory, which we have followed for a long period of time, has influenced our military actions, does lay out certain principles for whether and when to go to war. And it's good that we follow those instead of just being like, might is right and we can do whatever we want. If we want to kill a bunch of kids, that's okay. Like, you want your.

[David Harsanyi]

We didn't kill a bunch of kids. We don't know.

[Molly Hemingway]

I'm not saying we did. I'm saying you don't want people who act that way. You want people who do try to be limited or do try to only hit military objectives. Like, those are good things that make, make your action justified, right?

[David Harsanyi]

Sometimes. But.

[Molly Hemingway]

So you need to also have a

[David Harsanyi]

clarity of why you can't be moral relativists. We are the good guys in this, and it is a just war. But there's also a line of immunity. And, and I think Marco Rubio mentioned that. And that line of immunity creates a situation where a future war that will definitely happen will be far. There will be far more loss of life. So, so that's also an imminent threat. The line where, where, where Iran gets their ballistic missiles or their supersonic missiles from China. Now, is that easy to explain to the American people? No, it is difficult. But you're right. I just want to stress this. Rubio said the Israelis were going to act, which now we know they were going to act because all the leadership was in one place. But then he was. Someone explicitly asked him. That's the why. Someone asked him what, in that same presser that everyone ignored who said that Israel dragged us into war, was this, was the US Forced to strike because of impending action? No. No matter what, ultimately this operation needed to happen. That's the other question, is the question of why now? But this, then he goes on and on and lists the usual reasons. The line of immunity, the, the way Iran acts, the fact that why does, why won't any peacenik say, hey, Iran, accept this deal that doesn't let you have nukes if you don't want nukes anyway? You know why? Ben Rhodes doesn't say that, and the isolationists on the right don't say that because they don't care or want Iran to have nukes. That's the real end game here. And most of the people who are like, Israel dragged us into the war would not support military action against Iran if they had a nuke, if they were Chinese outpost They just don't care.

[Molly Hemingway]

I just want to point out that there can be arguments for why it would be. Why there. All the arguments for why it would be sort of just something you have to let Iran do are not. You should let people make those arguments. You know, you and I might not agree, but it's not necessarily like, without merit.

[David Harsanyi]

I mentioned what argument.

[Molly Hemingway]

I mentioned the Charles Krauthammer thing, that it might just be easier to let everyone get nukes.

[David Harsanyi]

At this point, it seems hard for me to believe Charles Krauthammer wanted Iran to have nukes. But you're right, but it was.

[Molly Hemingway]

He was kind of talking about the cost associated with preventing people from getting nukes is just. It just gets like higher every year and that it. It there. I'm just saying there's an argument.

[David Harsanyi]

Argument. Can I just say on that point, though, who wants nukes right now, other than Iran? Who shouldn't have them? Probably no one announced yesterday. I'm fine with Poland having nukes.

[Molly Hemingway]

I mean, wants nukes. It's just a very unrealistic thing for most of them.

[David Harsanyi]

Right. It's not as easy as people think. But if Iran gets nuke the nukes, the entire Sunni world will immediately get nuke. Want to get nukes and probably get nuke. Saudi Arabia, all the Gulf nations, Egypt, do we want that? I don't want that. I don't know what Charles Krauthammer wants. I don't want that. Because you look at what happened in Pakistan the other day, I know we're on this so long, but a bunch of crazy people rush the embassy, the American Embassy there. We saw what happened in Iran in 79. That almost happened in Pakistan actually around the same time. I believe it could happen. You don't want countries like Pakistan or that have nukes to fall into the hands of Islamists. So I'm against Islamic nations having nukes. If we can do prevent it. I'm not saying we need to go to war all the time, but it's good to stop them. Okay.

[Molly Hemingway]

No, I was going to say I'm curious what you think the effect will be on the Republican Party. You say that. I think you were saying that Republicans support Trump here, and that is true. In. In friendly and unfriendly polls. It does show that Republicans are, of course, much more likely to support Trump's action than either Democrats or Independents. Independents are much closer to Democrats on this issue than on probably any other issue in that they strongly disapprove of it. So heading into elections where you're trying to get your base to come out and vote and then also appeal to independence. What do you think the effect of this will be? Or do you think it'll be, do you think it'll be done so quickly that it'll be a forgotten memory or what?

[David Harsanyi]

I think I don't think it's going to have much effect at all either way. The yesterday I looked at a poll that or two polls that showed what Americans are most concerned about and foreign policy is very low. Now if tomorrow something terrible happens like a ballistic missile hits a base and kills 30Americans, I think that that can change. A lot of the reaction to this, in my view is the reaction, for instance, amongst Democrats will be that they don't like Trump. So one of the polls I saw, maybe it was Politico as like, do you trust, do you trust Donald Trump to do the right thing with Iran? And a lot of people were pointing out that the poll, this poll showed that everyone was against Iran, but it was tied to Donald Trump, which is how a lot of these things work. I think it will have very little effect in the end on the midterms unless somebody, some unforeseen big thing happens. Why? What do you think?

[Molly Hemingway]

I don't know. I think actually probably agree with you on this that if, if this wraps up quickly, it will have less of an effect. I know politically over longer terms, wars tend to become toxic for the party that is perceived as, as engaging in that them. And I think a big part of Trump's appeal had been that he claimed that he would not start a war that he opposes, you know, big war, that he was wanting to end wars. And I did see some people say like, no, Trump didn't launch a war, he's ending a war. That will be a complicated message for a not friendly audience. I think that works very well with, with people who are already aligned or who already are very focused.

[David Harsanyi]

Works well on me.

[Molly Hemingway]

Yeah, no, people are very focused on Iran. I think that does work. I'll just further say that although I think that the Republican Party has not really given voters enough reason to vote for them or I heard Kristen Soltis Anderson say, people don't vote to say thank you. They vote because they're angry. And that is very true. And, and even like with the good things that are being done by the Trump administration, I don't think people will turn out to say good job. I do also worry about even I think the best case scenario. And I don't see this as being a huge Percentage of probability. But the best case scenario would be that we are in and fully out within a month. Right. Even that, what did Trump called it, a digression or something into Iran or he had some kind of word about, yeah, we care about this country, but we're doing this digression into or you know, diversion into Iran. It is a diversion against the domestic policy agenda. And I think that if he can return to a focus there, that would be very good for political reasons. And I think a lot of Americans perceive a far higher day to day threat from the radical left than they do Iran, even understanding that both are threats and they have seen very little, maybe nothing done to keep that threat that they deal with day to day. You know, government schools trying to trans their children or people killing people or going after them in a very hostile fashion for any public expression of non left wing beliefs, that type of stuff. You know, Charlie Kirk was assassinated in September and they're prosecuting the individual who allegedly shot him, but not really doing anything about the larger antifa or radical trans movements. You're not seeing antifa which engages in such a, such horrible action, hurting cities from Portland and Minneapolis and otherwise and trying to stop that domestic policy agenda. You're not seeing them being rounded up and dealt with really. And so I think Americans are much more tolerant of the foreign policy adventurism if they're getting what they need at home. And so I would encourage Trump, if this is his signature thing, his legacy that he wants to have of this war in the Middle east, that he would, should not do it at the expense of his domestic policy agenda.

[David Harsanyi]

Yeah, I, people should prepare themselves obviously for Republicans to lose in the midterm because that's the norm. If this goes on too long and it seems like he's diverted all his attention from domestic issues. It doesn't help though. In the past, competent winning military operations don't seem to hurt presidents very much at all. And with, as far as the, the things that you just listed, some of them are very difficult to enact.

[Molly Hemingway]

I know, I know you can't do it overnight.

[David Harsanyi]

I think more importantly, I'm not sure if you mentioned it, but the, the border stuff. Right. So he, I, I think there were missteps with ice. Again, I, I don't want to get into like who was at fault with the shootings up in Minnesota, but in the perception of many Americans that was kind of, there's a lot of anarchy there, you know, initially. And it should have been handled better probably by the President. And I Think he pulled out of there and now it seems like he's not doing as much as he should be. He should be stressing.

[Molly Hemingway]

Yeah, I want to say he's doing a ton in Louisiana right now. They have been in New Orleans, rounding people up. Republican states do not go to war with the federal government on border enforcement. And so you don't hear anything about it. So, like if it's in Tennessee or if it's in Texas or Louisiana, nobody, you know, the government is actually helping federal agents with that law enforcement strategy. If you're in Minnesota, where Antifa is headquartered, or Portland, where Antifa is headquartered, that's where you're having trouble with rule of law because they're going to war.

[David Harsanyi]

No, I agree. I was going to say he should be stressing the successes he's having in states where there's cooperation. I've always believed that the border issue is far bigger than polls even reflect.

[Molly Hemingway]

But I will say polls showed that people cared a great deal about the border during the Biden administration. Once Trump effectively closed the border and started this deportation action, people are like, oh, it's going well. And so they rate it as much lower importance because it's not a day

[David Harsanyi]

to day problem for them, just a broader look at what's going on with Trump. I just don't think there's ever going to be a very popular president again with all American people. We're just too partisan right now. And so American voters blame the person in charge for all the bad things that are happening, but very rarely go out of their way, like you said, to give them credit for the good things that are happening. And they have short memories. So, you know, under Biden, inflation was crazy. It's tempered a bit. That's, that's a huge win. But it's. Voters kind of move past that. They're just living in their moment and things still aren't great economically for many of them. So I think he has a hard, hard. Yeah, he's got a hard case to. A difficult case to make. But you're right, I mean, if this goes on and on and he's not talking about affordability or whatever people want to hear, that's tough.

[Molly Hemingway]

I just want to say one. I know. I actually always thought even if he'd won in 2020, it would have been a better second term than a first term. Just because like, usually in your first term you start with your army of people who are great and then they all kind of like go away to get higher paying jobs. And then by the second term, you're just dealing with the dregs. It was totally opposite for Trump. He came in with no army. He tried to do that thing where he was playing along with the Republican establishment and put a lot of them in, and there was all sorts of resistance in each and every agency, and it was kind of a disaster. And by the second term, I knew he was. Would have much better people in play, but it's even better after four years with the competence. And I just want to. I know we need to move on from the war thing, but I just want to say one positive thing about this, one more positive thing about the war effort, which is, I think changing the Department of Defense into the Department of War is not just a name change, it's a mindset change of, rather than focusing on how to best help men in dresses advance to a higher position, it's about how do we achieve our aims and effectively meet those aims and do it with the least loss of life, but with warriors, from thinking of it as a big HR commune into a war fighting enterprise. And the effectiveness of the military actions that we have have undertaken in the last year is just really inspiring and admirable. From the operation in Venezuela to the most recent operation in Iran. We have lost lives. It is very bad. I don't think the American people have an appetite for a very long duration of lost lives and all that, but they understand that war fighting does come at great sacrifice. And they're seeing some really impressive images of the effectiveness of our strikes. You know, the. I don't know if you saw this morning Hegseth showed the sinking of a submarine, the sinking by a submarine, of a vessel, Iranian vessel. And it was the first time that's happened since World War II.

[David Harsanyi]

Yep.

[Molly Hemingway]

I mean, you know, when people see that, it gives them confidence in what's being done. So I just wanted to kind of to end with that.

[David Harsanyi]

But, yeah, you know, just a sports analogy. Sometimes you'll see a team and their body language is just not right there. They don't have that hubris. You know, they don't think they can win, basically. And Trump has changed that around with our military. The body language is right. Hey, do you want to talk about what do you think happened and what are your thoughts on what happened in Texas yesterday? Do you think?

[Molly Hemingway]

Yeah, yeah, I thought. I mean, the. I don't follow Texas politics as closely as I should. The. The Senate Majority Fund, or whatever it's called, spent a lot of money so that John Cornyn would not have to face A runoff against Ken Paxton, and it didn't work. I mean, it's a lot of money expended. They're going to spend a lot more money now. And seems the people of Texas wish that they had. They seem dissatisfied. I have no idea what's going to happen in that, that, in that primary. And in fact, I would say Corin has the strong, strong, strong advantage of, of not just incumbency, but all the money and everything. But there's a growing frustration with Republicans. They understand that if you're in a state like Maine that does not elect Republicans for any reason at any time, that a Republican like Susan Collins is allowed to be as moderate and squishy as she is, they get frustrated when they see any in much redder states, a weak leadership, like from a Ray Lankford in Oklahoma or a John Cornyn who is, what did he say? I mean, I saw an interview this week where he was like, one of the reasons I want to get elected is I think Donald Trump will be the person to fix immigration with a big amnesty program. And I want to help him do that. And it's like, I don't think that's the appetite in the Republican Party in Texas.

[David Harsanyi]

I was about to ask you, like, what I get that his, his demeanor is, is more moderate and all that, but has he opposed Donald Trump in any of his big endeavors? I mean, he seems to be pretty much on board with most things now.

[Molly Hemingway]

I don't think it's, I don't, I don't know enough. I, like I said, I don't follow Texas. I think the issue is more about the leadership he is showing as the senator from Texas. Is he, is he what the Republican Party of Texas would like to see in their leadership? That's the question that he'll have to answer. It's already why he has a runoff. I assume he'll probably do fine in the runoff, but there are a lot of people who are dissatisfied with him as a senator from Texas. And I don't think that's something that just happened during the Trump administration, but something going back. But I'm more interested in Dan Crenshaw losing his primary. And I am, I mean, that guy's not surprised. And the guy who is replacing him has a lot of support from across the spectrum. Steve Toth. Toth. I don't know how to say his name, but he is really liked by a lot of Republicans. And Dan Crenshaw had just a string of weird stories about how aggressive and abusive he was toward other people. And he was very much in that mold of like a Bush era Republican. And I think those two things in combination hurt him in his primary.

[David Harsanyi]

I would ask you this. Do you think Paxton would have a tougher time in a general than Cornyn?

[Molly Hemingway]

I mean, for a number of reasons. Cornyn's been the incumbent for many years. Paxton would face greater opposition from Republicans in power. You know, he wouldn't get support should he win this primary. He would probably be opposed by the Republican establishment for dethroning one of their buddies. And then also he is. You know, it just stands to reason, like this is sort of the attitude of the Republican Party. If we can get the squishiest person we can to win the nomination, we'll do better in the general. Sometimes that's true. Sometimes you actually have to work to get, get the, the most based person in, even if it makes it a little more challenging in the general. But that's for each state to decide how they want to handle it.

[David Harsanyi]

Well, my, my point is, I don't buy that Texas will be lost, but it seems to me that that would be a massive disaster for the Republican Party. I mean, it would be an earthquake for them to lose that state. I'm sorry, and you were going to talk about the other race with that insufferable, sanctimonious, this smug dude who won. What's his name?

[Molly Hemingway]

Yeah, I would say the Democrats. I always feel like each party benefits from the opposing party's idiocy. And it works back and forth like, constantly. But I know the media and all the other Democrats love James Talarico.

[David Harsanyi]

Talarico.

[Molly Hemingway]

That man has the most punchable Persona I have ever seen in a politician. And it, it makes me judgy. Not just about him, but anyone who is persuaded by him. It's so obnoxious. Do you like him, James?

[David Harsanyi]

Oh, my God. He's worse than Beto o', Rourke, I think. I can't. I. He just rubs me the wrong way. I can't believe people in Texas would fall for that. I love how it's okay, incidentally, for a Democrat to just basically appropriate Christianity as the central theme of his campaign. And in my view, I'm not a Christian, so I'm not going to speak for Christians, but in my view, misrepresenting that faith in a pretty serious way generally. But when a Republican mentions Jesus, everyone has a meltdown, you know what I mean? And they just celebrate this guy. So there's just such frauds. I just can't see him winning. I don't care who's running on the Republican side side, but Republicans can't lose Texas. It's a serious.

[Molly Hemingway]

The Republicans were trying to get Jasmine Crockett to win the primary against Talarico. I don't know how bad she lost. I was not paying attention to her until fairly recently. I believe I could be wrong, but I believe she attacked me as a racist when I was testifying in Congress once and it was so cartoonish and ridiculous. And by the way, she took up her whole time so that I, she just said that for five minutes that I couldn't respond. And then quite nicely, someone else later, a later questioner was like, did you want to respond to that? And I was like, oh, I do. Thank you. But I learned she was kind of a child of elite privilege who does this cosplaying as a, like, ghetto girl. And she's not, she's like, went to a very Fancy School in St. Louis. It's all an act. And I know all politicians are like that. They're, they're doing their aw, shucks or whatever her thing is, but this will

[David Harsanyi]

probably get me in trouble. But isn't it. I hate to use. It's not racist, but isn't it demeaning that you feel like to represent African Americans you have to act like, like, like you're from the street. Like, there are no educated or, you know, well spoken black Americans. I just feel like it's a, it's a caricature like you say it's just a cartoon of what she thinks a black person's supposed to sound like. Now, I know people say like, it's not my place to, to say this to black people, but I mean, if someone was like out, out there being a Nebish representing Jewish people by being like Shecky Green or something, I'd be like, that's pretty offensive.

[Molly Hemingway]

You know, the media were really lifting her up until they sided with James Rico in this primary battle and they decided he would be a safer.

[David Harsanyi]

Why do you think? Because he'll win. Because they think he'll. He has a chance to win.

[Molly Hemingway]

Yeah, I mean, the Republicans also thought he was the bigger threat. I, I actually am not sure. I'm talking about a woman who personally attacked me. I think I would rather vote for her than James Talarico. He is that obnoxious. But there's something like, I think, I mean, since we're. Since I'm being offensive here, I think there's something very effeminate about Democrat men. Like, literally they have lower testosterone and then also they, they have fewer men in their party and they're the. The great womanification of the Democrat party has made it so they do want either gay men or men who kind of present as gay or as. As no threat to women. They don't. I think they do genuinely like Talarico more. Or maybe they're just racist and sexist. I don't know.

[David Harsanyi]

Well, he says God is pro abortion. He says God is non binary. Which I guess in. In some weird way might be God is not actually form. But yeah, okay, not true. But a stupid.

[Molly Hemingway]

Call him God the father.

[David Harsanyi]

Yeah, the father. He capitalized just a. Just a nut job. Also a socialist like just idiotic zero sum economic ideas. No different than Bernie Sanders. It just doesn't seem like Texas is the place for that. But we shall see. There's always every, I think every election in my lifetime time since Texas turned red, I'm told that a Democrat has a chance to win.

[Molly Hemingway]

So I think John Cornyn has also attacked me. And why was that?

[David Harsanyi]

I don't know. Molly. I think we need to hear him out. What do you have to say? Okay, Molly, everyone's attacking her.

[Molly Hemingway]

I know. It's so awful. I think it was when he said that if you cared about securing the border, you were a Russian in Texas.

[David Harsanyi]

You want to talk about culture? Yep. What do I have? I don't think I have a lot. Why don't you go first?

[Molly Hemingway]

I don't really have anything. I had a friend visiting this weekend and she had an event at the White House. It's an arts and culture Summit for the America 250. So was just kind of hanging out with her and enjoying that. And then on Sunday night we did rewatch. This is a movie I'm beginning to like. Rewatch with alarming frequency. Miracle.

[David Harsanyi]

Oh my gosh. I rewatched it too.

[Molly Hemingway]

I love that movie. It's just so good and it. I was cheering and crying and acting is so great and there's so many good lines. Well, our pastor on Sunday had said that he was talking with some older kids at our school, which goes through eighth grade about what is the greatest line in that movie. And pastor thought that the greatest line was that the name or that the. Yet the name on the front of the jersey is more important than the name on the back. But that one of the kids said it's again. So you know the scene where they aren't putting their whole heart into a game with Norway or Sweden, I can't remember. And so the coach makes Them just go to the point of exhaustion after the game, drilling them. And he just keeps saying again and again and again. And our pastor was saying that we should have this kind of attitude toward rooting out the sin in our lives. Just again and again and again. You just keep working to work on your spiritual disciplines. We're in a. We're in Lent, so we're talking a lot about spiritual disciplines. What you give up, also what you do. And so I, I, I loved the sermon, but also I was like, I want to rewatch Miracle. So we, we rewatched it that night, and.

[David Harsanyi]

But the best line is after again, when he just yells, Mike Arousio. Tony goes, that's what I think is.

[Molly Hemingway]

That's what I mouthed that. Like, I didn't say anything out loud. We're Lutheran. We're quiet.

[David Harsanyi]

But I said, yeah, who do you play for? The United States of America? That. That is the greatest line. And I think I watched the movie for that point. Like, that's my favorite part of the movie. Yeah. Yes.

[Molly Hemingway]

So I think it is interesting that we all have that scene as the signature scene, but there are other good lines in the movie, too. I want to just mention Justice Kavanaugh right before he came out for his speech that saved his, his nomination. The hype that he did with Don McGann. They both love that movie, was to say that line. Also, I watched the Miracle documentary.

[David Harsanyi]

So good, isn't it?

[Molly Hemingway]

Yeah. And I thought that line from his kid, when the, when his son is like, yeah. All these people were saying how hard it was to play for him for six months in 1980. He's like, like, try being his kid anyway.

[David Harsanyi]

Yeah, his kids. I think that's the best, most honest documentary. A Miracle. It's not all romanticism. Like, his kids obviously had a hard time with him. He was a hard man in, in a lot of ways. And they tell the story about how Herb Brooks is. He was the last guy cut on the 60 Olympic team, and when they won, his dad turned to him and said, it looks like they cut the right, right guy. And how brutal that must have been. And he was just a hard man. But I love that documentary. I recommend it strongly for anyone who's interested in this because it really. They show footage that has never been seen before. They have a lot of the players watching their families. It's just really, really well done. I thought it was well done. I watched a show called A Night of the Seven Kingdoms, which is a spin off of a prequel show to Game of Thrones. It is not as pornographic, I'd say, or violent. It was kind of a straightforward story. People love this though. And I think I just thought it was okay. So maybe I'm missing something. I don't know.

[Molly Hemingway]

Okay.

[David Harsanyi]

I. I also watched A Season of Alone. It was Arctic Adventure or something that shows nuts where they just drop you off in the wilderness with like seven things and you have to survive. And whoever survives longest, I think think that this season it was 75 days or something around there. So they fish and hunt, basically. They all are just emaciated. Like they just lose. I think the guy who won lost 75 pounds. It just seems irresponsible, that show. But anyway, then I have such a stack of books I'm reading that are amazing that I thought maybe I'd mention a few. The first one's called, called the Great Sea and it's a human history of the Mediterranean. Just super well written and interesting.

[Molly Hemingway]

I want to read that before I go on a Mediterranean cruise in September.

[David Harsanyi]

Nice. There's a book. It's kind of. It's an older book, but it's expanded and I think re edited. It's called Augustus the First Emperor of Rome by Adrian Goldsworthy, who's a great, great historian of Rome. I have two more. More. Three more. The death of Trotsky. The Sturan plot to kill Stalin's greatest enemy. I started reading this. It's like. It's a history, but it's like a spy novel. It's just fantastic. People like not giving away anything by saying that Trotsky was killed with an ice pick in Mexico City by a Stalin spy. And it tells you that story. Yes, but I think people know that violent saviors the west conquest of the rest. And then because of what was going on in Iran, I was rereading among the Believers by Versus Napal. You know, writer. Such an amazing book. He goes. I think it was written in 81. He goes. It's like a travelogue in a way. But he goes to Iran after the revolution. He goes to the conquered people, not the Arabic countries, but people who became Islamic when the Arab came. And if you're interested in that, I think it's a classic. It's a fantastic book. He's a fantastic author. All right. If you'd like to reach the show, you can do [e-mail] we'd love to hear from you. We'll be back next week. Until then, be lovers of freedom and anxious for the friend.