In this data-driven episode, Michael Blank is joined by returning guest Neal Bawa, one of the most analytical minds in multifamily real estate. Neal breaks down why the market has failed to rebound as many expected, why 2026 may remain a “muddling” year, and how excess supply, construction costs, and policy decisions are reshaping rents and underwriting assumptions. This conversation offers a clear-eyed, numbers-based outlook on what investors should realistically expect over the next several years.

Key Takeaways

The market is behaving rationally, not emotionally — despite abundant capital, investors remain cautious due to fundamentals, not fear.
Three consecutive years of oversupply broke historical patterns, causing Class B and C assets to feel pressure previously thought impossible.
Rent growth is slowly returning, with projections around ~1.5% in 2026 and normalization closer to 2.5% beyond that.
Many deals will never return to original pro formas, requiring investors to reset expectations and focus on survivability over returns.
Rising construction costs from labor shortages and tariffs are likely to suppress new development and benefit existing assets long term.
2027–2029 may see meaningful upside, as reduced supply finally meets sustained housing demand.

For full episode show notes visit: https://themichaelblank.com/podcasts/session511/