
Hosted by Prime Creative Media · EN

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack the messy US–Iran–Israel conflict, Trump's latest TACO backdown, and what the fragile ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz disruptions mean for oil prices and investors. They also explore how billionaire windfalls, housing-driven wealth inequality and gas-export profits are feeding political backlash against liberal democracy, and why Australia needs holistic tax reform – covering gas taxes, GST, bracket creep and spending – rather than more policy tinkering. Tune in to hear: How markets are reacting to the fragile ceasefire. The worsening state of wealth inequality. Why holistic tax reform is needed rather than a piecemeal approach.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford is joined by AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina to take a look at the latest inflation figures and whether there is anything useful to learn from the pre-Iran war figures. She explains that while February data suggested inflation had been peaking before the conflict, the coming months are likely to tell a very different story as energy prices ripple through the economy. Tune in to hear: Whether the potential of stagflation needs to be a bigger concern. What to expect from future inflation figures with higher oil prices baked in. How the government may respond to growing pressure for broader tax reform.

In this episode of the Relative Return Insider podcast, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack why the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint for global oil supply is the critical variable for markets. Shane warns that the longer the strait remains blocked, the higher the risk of further oil price spikes and extended economic pain, while Treasury modelling is forecasting inflation heading towards 5 per cent this year. Tune in to hear: How the multi‑million barrel per day oil shortfall continuing will affect global economies. With inflation heading higher, whether the RBA will make another move following this week's rate hike. Why short-term solutions need to be avoided in favour of real budget reform.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the market turmoil triggered by the escalating US–Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is disrupting the flow of oil and gas. Shane forecasts the impact of the increasing cost of oil on Australia's fuel prices and similarities to the 1970s oil crises, and how this could flow through to a mix of higher inflation, weaker growth, and renewed focus on energy security and de‑globalisation. Tune in to hear: How the US–Iran conflict is affecting global markets beyond fuel prices. Why the RBA will likely move to hike rates next week – and if it would be the right call. Whether the shock is likely to accelerate structural shifts.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack the rapidly evolving US–Israel–Iran conflict and its implications for oil markets, inflation and investors. Shane explains why Middle East conflicts matter mainly through their impact on oil supply, highlighting Iran's role as a significant producer and the critical importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and how disruptions there could translate into higher global oil prices. Tune in to hear: Whether higher fuel costs as the war continues will push up inflation. How the base case for the RBA has changed for its March meeting and beyond. If there is any rhyme or reason for the bitcoin rebound over the last week.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford is joined by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver to unpack a tumultuous week for global markets, led by the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for imposing tariffs. Oliver explains how the administration has pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act to apply a temporary flat tariff of 15 per cent on all countries, what the implications are for Australia as it faces a higher rate, and the messy question of tariff refunds for businesses and whether any benefit ever flows back to US consumers. Tune in to hear: Why January's CPI numbers have increased the chances of an RBA hike in May. Whether the government is likely to use the upcoming budget to announce major reform. The likelihood that volatility in markets will continue.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford is joined by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver to break down the latest Australian jobs and wages data, what a still‑tight labour market means for inflation and RBA rate hikes, and how households are really faring in the cost‑of‑living squeeze. They also look at why the ASX is hitting new highs despite valuation risks, and scan key geopolitical flashpoints – from Iran and oil prices to possible US tariff changes – that could rattle markets in the months ahead. Tune in to hear: Why steady unemployment, strong full‑time job growth, and a slightly lower participation rate are keeping conditions a little tight. How real wages in the negative but broader earnings measures and strong employment suggest households overall are OK, not fantastic. What is driving the ASX to record highs, and where potential geopolitical flashpoints could impact markets.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford speaks with AMP chief economist Shane Oliver about the ASX brushing record highs amid a robust profit reporting season and whether a bullish view on AI is actually a case to exit US tech stocks. Oliver broke down how strong results from miners and banks has driven the Australian market to a new high despite cost‑of‑living pressures, inflation worries and global geopolitical risks. Tune in to hear: Why AI's long‑term winners may be outside big US tech. Whether AI will be truly transformative or if it will fall below expectations. How public spending is adding to demand and inflation pressures, but the inflation spike should be partly temporary.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the RBA's decision to increase rates and what it signals for inflation, growth, and housing. Oliver delves into how elevated aggregate demandis colliding with capacity constraints and weak productivity, leaving Australia more inflation‑prone even at modest growth rates, as well as the impact that the RBA's decision will have on the housing market. Tune in to hear: Why the time is ripe for a tax reform to go further than the mooted changes to the CGT discount. Whether tech shares are overvalued as even strong results are met with price dips. How a new Federal Reserve chair could impact US monetary policy.

In this episode of the Relative Return Insider podcast, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver joins host Keith Ford to unpack the latest Australian CPI print, with inflation higher than expected and above the RBA's prior forecasts. Despite a strong consensus among economists and money markets for a near-term rate hike, Oliver argues this meeting is a close call and there are certainly arguments that the RBA would be better off holding rates to gather more data. Tune in to hear: Why the RBA is constrained to using the blunt instrument of rates decisions. The ongoing relationship between geopolitical risk and the surging price of both precious and industrial metals. How US political volatility is impacting the Aussie dollar.