Podcast Summary: Firewall with Bradley Tusk — "A Bold Prediction About Prediction Markets"

Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Bradley Tusk
Guest: Aaron Miller, Principal at Will Ventures

Episode Overview

In this episode, Bradley Tusk sits down with Aaron Miller from Will Ventures to discuss the current and future state of prediction markets—a niche where betting, technology, regulation, and economic philosophy intersect. They explore why prediction markets are undergoing regulatory changes, how these platforms could fundamentally reshape our sense of “truth” in society, the legal and financial implications for gambling in the United States, and how this all relates to broader trends in American sports, higher education, and risk-taking behaviors. The conversation also pivots to Miller’s thoughts on the future of college sports and broader venture opportunities in sports and entertainment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Blizzard and Initial Banter

• [00:34–01:14] The recording is remote due to a major NYC blizzard. Aaron jokes about his storm grocery “strategy,” setting a casual, humorous tone.

How Aaron Met Bradley; Perspectives on Prediction Markets

• [01:14–02:24] Aaron recounts meeting Bradley via a mutual friend and reading Bradley’s book in college.
• [02:24–02:50] They segue into the podcast’s main subject: Aaron’s bullish take on prediction markets.

What Are Prediction Markets? Current Status and Regulatory Shifts

• [02:50–04:25]
  • Definition and Exposure: Will Ventures invests in sports betting and recently backed a prediction market startup.
  • Key Regulatory Change: The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) is now regulating sports “event contracts” nationally, shifting authority away from individual states. (e.g. Kalshi, Polymarket)
  • Conventional View: Prediction markets are often confused with sports betting, but are evolving into federally regulated financial instruments.

Quote [03:49]:

"Sports betting could potentially be shifting from a state regulated business to a nationally regulated business because now for the first time...the CFTC [is] essentially saying we are going to oversee sports trades."
—Aaron Miller

Legal and Political Controversy: Federal vs. State Regulation

• [04:25–07:01]
  • Legal Arguments: Proponents claim these are “event contracts” with value for risk hedging; critics allege political favoritism and self-dealing, especially under the Trump administration.
  • State Pushback: States insist regulation should remain with them, prompting lawsuits and likely Supreme Court involvement.

Quote [05:46]:

“States obviously feel like this is their territory, regardless of whether they think this is all the product of self dealing or not by Trump. Either way, they do think that it is part of their jurisdiction.”
—Bradley Tusk

The Vision for Prediction Markets: Beyond Sports Betting

• [07:35–10:33]
  • VC Perspective: Major venture capitalists are betting on prediction markets as vastly more than sports gambling.
  • Source of Truth: The ultimate vision is for prediction markets to be society’s “truth engine,” aggregating crowd beliefs on everything—political races, entertainment events, economic trends.
  • Reference to Hayek: The wisdom of crowds, rooted in the economic philosophy of Friedrich Hayek, underpins this vision.

Quote [09:22]:

“The idea is that these prediction markets become a real source of truth...aggregating people's opinions across society are actually a better bellwether of truth than anything else you could get out there.”
—Aaron Miller

Societal Fragmentation and the Unifying Potential of Prediction Markets

• [10:01–10:33]
  • Traditional media can't be trusted as unbiased anymore; prediction odds can serve as digestible, objective information.

Quote [10:01]:

“There aren't that many places left where the wisdom of the crowd can emerge simply because everyone is sort of in their own corners these days. But you think that prediction markets have the ability to, in some ways, be a unifier...”
—Bradley Tusk

Financial and Societal Utility

• [10:56–12:04]
  • Event contracts as risk management: e.g., companies hedging against tariffs or election outcomes.
  • Underlying libertarian ideology connects prediction markets with crypto and anti-establishment politics.

Quote [10:56]:

“It's actually a very libertarian ideology behind it. And what I think is really interesting about prediction markets is there's this whole crossover with the crypto world and crypto is very much rooted in libertarianism as well...”
—Aaron Miller

Path to Liquidity and Growth

• [12:04–13:08]
  • Current volume is 90% sports; long-term bet is that sports will serve as an “on-ramp” to more substantial, diversified prediction markets.
  • Market expansion is both the vision and challenge.

Sportsbooks vs. Prediction Markets: Business Models and Outcomes

• [13:08–14:58]
  • Traditional sportsbooks: You bet against "the house."
  • Prediction markets: Operate as exchanges; market makers set the prices by taking positions, not the platform itself. However, institutional trading may still tip the odds against retail traders.

Legal Scenarios: What If States or Feds Win?

• [14:58–16:40]
  • If states prevail: Prediction markets may be shut down or limited to non-sports contracts.
  • If feds (CFTC) win: Industry likely shifts entirely to federal regulation; state-level gaming revenue may force states to aggressively expand into online casino gaming (iGaming) to fill budget holes.

Societal Trends: Rise of Gambling, Financial Nihilism, and Dopamine

• [18:19–20:15]
  • Americans are gambling more—57% in the past year, up from 49%.
  • Theories:
    • Financial Nihilism: Young people, facing little economic mobility, turn to gambling and risk-taking for potential windfalls (Peter Thiel’s view).
    • Digital Dopamine: Dopamine-seeking behavior transfers from social media to gambling (Jonathan Haidt’s research).
    • Digitization & Legalization: Regulatory changes and phone-based gaming increase exposure and ease of access.

Quote [18:46]:

“The AGA said 57% of American adults had gambled in the last year, and that's up from 49% two years ago. So an 8.8 percentage point uptick in just two years.”
—Aaron Miller

Future Markets: Prediction Exchanges as Financial Markets

• [20:15–22:24]
  • Vision that prediction markets could outgrow sports, becoming broader risk-management and sentiment measurement tools—a "financial exchange" for human expectation and uncertainty.
  • With rapid regulatory changes, investment success comes from backing “crazy, crazy passionate” founders who can adapt.

Quote [21:02]:

“Gambling is such a complicated space to regulate because it's such a moving target...You can just back the best founders, and the best founders are always going to be smarter on their space than the VCs.”
—Aaron Miller

College Sports: NIL, Restructuring and the Future

• [22:45–33:27]
  • Miller’s fund (Will Ventures) is investing in organizations like athletes.org, which supports collective bargaining for student athletes.
  • Discussion around the unintended consequences of current Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) regulations:
    • Revenue sports (football, basketball) thrive, non-revenue sports risk budget cuts.
    • Advocates a restructuring akin to pro leagues, with collective bargaining determining revenue splits for athletes.

Quote [24:27]:

“No one is saying that every athlete should be treated evenly. That’s going to be one of the hardest things to figure out. Like what, you know, what payment should a gymnast get versus a football player? And that is why collective bargaining is going to be really, really complicated.”
—Aaron Miller

The Market Value of Non-Revenue Sports

• [27:21–29:33]
  • Bradley challenges the necessity of funding non-revenue collegiate sports beyond their intrinsic value to participants.
  • Miller admits that, ultimately, the market and donor interests will determine which sports survive.

Broader Critique of Higher Education

• [32:03–35:22]
  • Tusk proposes that universities' drive to offer numerous sports teams increases costs and student debt without clear societal value.

Maximizing Value: SEC/Big Ten Super League?

• [36:11–37:32]
  • If major conferences broke away, they could maximize profits but risk undermining the ecosystem of college sports as a whole.

Personal Motivations and Venture Career Path

• [37:32–41:41]
  • Miller shares his personal journey: lifelong sports fan, worked at WME and in NBA international expansion, moved into startups and VC at Stanford, fulfilling his “passion for sports while moving fast.”

Expansion to International Leagues

• [40:03–40:37]
  • The NBA is furthest along in establishing franchises in Europe and Latin America, with plans for new teams abroad and international competitions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Regulatory Shift [03:49]:
  “Sports betting could potentially be shifting from a state regulated business to a nationally regulated business because now for the first time...the CFTC [is] essentially saying we are going to oversee sports trades.” —Aaron Miller

• Prediction Markets' Potential [09:22]:
  “These prediction markets become a real source of truth...aggregating people's opinions across society are actually a better bellwether of truth than anything else you could get out there.” —Aaron Miller

• Libertarian Roots [10:56]:
  "It's actually a very libertarian ideology behind it. And what I think is really interesting about prediction markets is there's this whole crossover with the crypto world and crypto is very much rooted in libertarianism as well..." —Aaron Miller

• The Market’s Expansion [12:04]:
  “Right now these prediction markets are sports, sports and more sports... But the bet is that that will be what kind of gets people accustomed into prediction markets. And over time liquidity is just going to grow into other markets and markets are going to expand way larger than sports.” —Aaron Miller

• Societal Change in Gambling [18:46]:
  "The AGA said 57% of American adults had gambled in the last year, and that's up from 49% two years ago. So an 8.8 percentage point uptick in just two years." —Aaron Miller

• VC Approach [21:02]:
  “You can just back the best founders, and the best founders are always going to be smarter on their space than the VCs.” —Aaron Miller

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Intro, Blizzard Banter: 00:00–01:14
• Prediction Markets Background: 02:24–04:25
• Regulatory Battle (States vs. Feds): 04:25–07:01
• VC Vision for Prediction Markets: 07:35–10:33
• Market as “Source of Truth”: 09:22–10:33
• Gambling Trends & Societal Shifts: 18:19–20:15
• College Sports & NIL Restructuring: 22:45–37:32
• Personal Background and Sports Ventures: 37:32–41:41
• Global Sports Expansion: 40:03–40:37
• Outro: 42:06 onward

Further Exploration & How to Follow

• Aaron Miller’s Substack: "4am Club" — Weekly/biweekly insights on sports, entertainment, and tech.
• Will Ventures: VC perspectives and investments in emerging sports and entertainment.

This episode is essential listening for anyone interested in the intersection of regulation, technology, markets, and sports—or anyone curious about the rapidly morphing gambling world and its deeper implications for society and the economy.