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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome back to Firewall.
- [00:11]
B
I'm Hugo Lindgren, your producer and occasional co host. Bradley is traveling today, but we wanted to capture his thoughts on the primaries this week in New York. So we've got him. And we've also got Chris Coffey, the CEO of Tusk Strategies, who regular listeners know is a true expert on New York politics. Going to start with Chris. It was a big, big night for Mamdani. Give us your overall take. Hey, thanks for having me. Yeah, it was a tough night for the normies. You know, the mayor had made a bunch of endorsements in open legislative races and then in congressional races, and he won all of his races. There was some thought throughout the course of the weeks leading up that he would not win the Adriano espionage race in northern Manhattan and the Bronx, and he did. It was a close one, but Darlisa beat Adriano. And then more of note, what was going to be a close race between Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and Claire Valdez was a blowout. And Reynoso, who's a popular, progressive Brooklyn borough president, lost by 20, 25 points or so. And then Brad Lander beat, you know, Congressman Dan Goldman in Brooklyn brownstone Brooklyn and lower Manhattan. And the mayor won all of his, all of his open legislative races, too. So it was, it was, it was a tough night for sort of establishment Democrats and a really strong, overwhelming night for the dsa.
- [01:41]
A
So what do you attribute that to?
- [01:43]
B
I think there's an anti, anti apac, deep anti Israel sentiment that is running through the Democratic Party. And it's not just in the dsa. I think there's an anti establishment, anti Washington, like Donald Trump's been here for X years. And it's the same losers with the same yada yada that is running through Democratic circles in New York. And I think the mayor is very, very popular. The Knicks just won. It's the summer. He's got young white folks and others who are voting for him in droves. His approval rating, I think, is in the high 70s in the Democratic Party. And if you put those three things together, it was a tough night for incumbents.
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A
Okay, so given that, if you were advising the different Jewish organizations like UJA or whoever, what would you tell them?
- [02:39]
B
I just got off a UJA panel. Listen, I think it's hard if, if you're going out there with older white validators, Jewish validators like Scott Stringer and saying he's the tip of the spear, and they say monsters, and you get into a fight over anti semitism what we saw in 2025 was it's kind of a loser. And I'm not, you know, I'm not, I'm not making a judgment on the thing itself. I'm saying as an electoral argument, arguing about anti Semitism does not appear to be working. And now we have two elections where that's been the case. Listen, there were bright spots last night. Richie Torres won by 50 points a year ago. I think a lot of folks thought Richie would have a very, very difficult primary. Michael Asher, who is pretty good on Israel, very good on Israel, or pro Israel, won by, you know, four points in a, in a close race. There were bright, you know, Grace Lee, a moderate state Senate seat down in lower Manhattan. There were some bright spots, but figuring out how to have a real coalition that is led not by older white folks and sort of moderate white Jewish folks, I think would be part of it. I think, I think also it's going to need a little bit of a change in underall circumstance if the mayor is polling at 78, 80% among Democrats. I'm just not sure how you're going to get around that. I assume some of that will change. We've seen second, second year slumps, right? Mike Bloomberg had a second year slump. David Dinkins, Bill de Blasio, Eric Adams had a deep and never got out of his second year slump. I got worse. We'll see what happens with the mayor. But if the mayor, you know, if the Knicks win next year and, you know, he's. The snowstorms get picked up and people are still, you know, sort of happy about the mayor, I think it's gonna be really, really tough.
- [04:38]
A
And so you're talking to people, telling them effectively that they, as kind of, you know, middle aged or even older sort of white moderates are not the right people to lead the charge. How do you get people to agree to effectively replace themselves? Right, because what you're really saying is you who see yourself as a leader and public figure and both get your validation from that and your purpose from that, else no longer can be effective. So if you truly care about your underlying goals, you have to sacrifice yourself. Human history is not littered with lots of great examples of that. So do you think it's likely that the kind of people you're talking to will say, yeah, I'm the wrong face of this thing, I need to step aside?
- [05:25]
B
No. And by the way, that is also true to me. There are three, and this is probably a little simplistic, there are three groups of people. There are Progressive socialist Democrats. Socialist Democrats who make up, you know, socialists plus Madani voters writ large in the Democratic Party. I don't know what percentage they make up, but it's a big, big number. And especially in the districts last night, like, you know, Dan Goldman's seat, where they're at 68%, 70%, Claire. Claire Valdez, 65%. There are big numbers in some of these districts. Right. Then there's another group of Democrats that I would call like establishment or normie Democrats, although I think a lot of normies voted in that initial category, by the way. But establishment Democrats, and they're a smaller but not insignificant number. Right. Antonio got 35%, Dan Goldman got 35%. Some of Micah is in there. Richie Torres, I said got 75%. So there are, you know, Greg Meeks ran unopposed. Grace Ming was one, but close, big group people. Then there's a third group of people and they're Republicans and independents. And I would describe them as like Sid Rosenberg, Donnie Deutsch, John Snell. And I will tell you, every time one of those guys opens up their mouth to your point about people replacing themselves and not knowing they're not the right face of this, every time I hear John Schnell or Sid Rosenberg say, we gotta send Mumsmami back to Cuba, like every time I see that those normie Democrats in the midd side with the mayor. So there's also this just weird. Like there is. There has not been an effective way for Democratic establishment folks to form a coalition of Democrats, by the way, it could include other people, although for the sake of primaries, the other people don't matter as much to really make a cohesive effort about some of the things that I think are worth pointing out. The mayor has not done as much governing. Right. He's very focused on videos and politics. And there are things you could, you could do. The things they're doing have not worked.
- [07:33]
A
Right. So, yeah, on that line on that, that, that point. Because reality always sets in and the mayor is effectively at the moment kind of getting by on really good vibes. The Knicks winning the title, keeping Jesse Tisch was obviously really smart and probably the major substantive thing he's accomplished. And then a lot of bailouts and gimmicks b Albany and gimmicks to balance the budget. All of that sort of wears off or goes away for one reason or another. He's using Israel as sort of the wedge to assert his leadership in the Democratic Party and help endorse and pick candidates who can use that issue to Win. Do you think it ever sort of becomes an issue to New Yorkers that it seems like the only thing that Mondami truly cares about, other than his own popularity, is. Is getting rid of Israel, which just has nothing to do with being mayor of New York City. Do you think that ever becomes a liability, or do you think it's just sort of the golden thing for him?
- [08:36]
B
I think it's just the opposite of liability. I think they were worried about their turnout numbers on Friday. Early vote numbers were down in Reynoso's race, Valdez's race. They were down in Espailant's race. The mayor was a little bit worried. His people were worried. And what do they do? They went out with Bernie Sanders and talked about APAC as monsters, which was, for folks who were in the audience that night at that event, was the applause line of the night. And it was not an accident. There was a teleprompter and everything. They talked about monsters in dark, shadowy money and groups that are funneling money and conspiracies as a way to juice the turnout. And it works.
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A
And so I think, I don't mean just like right now. I mean that if he's going to be mayor for four to eight, probably eight years, it just, generally speaking, he's the first mayor that I've seen. I mean, de Blasio just seemed disinterested in being mayor, but it wasn't like there was one issue that he was passionate about. Right. And Adams, it's such a weird guy. It's hard to tell, but most of the mayors in our lifetime have seemed to really want to be mayor. And even if they weren't good at it, it was their focus. Right. The only thing I can tell that Mondavi seems to truly care about is the elimination of Israel. So does it matter when you have a job that is so based on the nuts and bolts of a city that's 7,000, 8,000 miles away from the actual thing you care about?
- [10:09]
B
I think not. When AIPAC and Israel are polling is the number one issue some of these races, Right? So if you looked at the Dan Goldman race, Dan Goldman's people said to him six months ago, if you use the word genocide and condemn Netanyahu in Israel, you could probably win this election and he wouldn't do it because he didn't believe in that. But it was the number one issue in that election. It was the number one issue in the Reynoso Valdez election. It was the number one or the number two issue in the SB election. So I don't know what changing circumstances could have if the war subsides, if, you know, if there are things that bring Israel out of the center of attention, maybe. But you know, the mayor is going to say, by the way, the mayor is going to get like his rent freeze for the city buildings, like today. Tomorrow he'll have said, I got this pilot program which is going to expand for child care. I'm opening a grocery store in the. Like, he'll have his talking points. And you know, that, that, I think, is the challenge. There is a, there is an underlying conditions case that has to be changed here. Whether, you know, there's some. It's not clear that he is as interested in keeping jobs in New York. If that's something that starts to move a little bit. If, God forbid, there's like crime that starts to change. If Jesse Tisch leaves, if the summer has crime issues, like, that's something that could change the narrative. But right now he's kind of riding high. You said the Knicks is a good example. Like, and Israel as a dominant issue in the Democratic Party right now. And if that changes, then maybe, but they have kept it front and center as like the number one or number two issue in all of these races. I think there's a tendency to fight back, which is, which I understand. Like, we're going to have this. We're going to call them an anti Semite and we're going to. And again, I just think, I don't know how you do it, but I think you have to have a different conversation. Like, if you actually ask New Yorkers, have their lives gotten more affordable? Like, have, have. Can you take free buses now? Like, has your rent frozen? Like, to me, that's going to be a better contrast than calling him an anti Semite, which. Which doesn't work.
- [12:19]
A
Yeah, totally. Totally. I was, I was just working on my substack for next week about that where effectively, right. If it's socialism is bad and center left is better or, you know, Zionism versus anti Zionism or just, you know, things like that, that's not going to work. The question is, is New York City a better place to live than it was before he became mayor? And you're right. So if you look at his campaign promises, Hochul is providing in state money 1.2 billion for childcare, which is great, but she cared about that issue either way. And I don't know that it was because of Zoran that it happened. And it's nowhere near universal. There are no Free buses, like you said, the rent frees. It's something de Blasio did three times. And I don't think anybody would say that housing feels more affordable than it used to. The city owned grocery store is a ludicrous concept. And they're spending $30 million to construct something that won't be ready until 2029. And then even all of those things, none of them actually make New York affordable. They're just wealth transfers. And it mainly seems like Mondami's issue and goal here of his base, what they call social justice is just if Mondami's base in the far left tend to be white and Asian people in the second and third decile of wealth, it's a transfer of money from people in the first sile of wealth to them. I don't actually disagree that there shouldn't be more wealth redistribution in this country. But honestly, the people in Mondami's base who are hanging out in the Bushwick DSA basements, they should be paying more in taxes too. They should be getting less from government and giving money to the people in the 51st to 100th percentile of wealth. So it seems mainly like the whole thing is not really about affordability and it's not really about the redistribution that's not really about justice. It's moving money from very rich people to pretty rich people.
- [14:09]
B
Yeah, I'm not sure. Maybe I just think they'll be. He has been excellent at being able to take his B minus wins like the pied a terror tax and talk about it as an A plus win, which by the way, every politician tries to do. But his base and the base is bigger than we think it is. They will. In the same way that I think if Donald Trump walked into fifth Avenue and shot someone, most Republicans would still vote for him. I think there is equally sizable folk, you know, vote on the far left. And not just the far left, but the left where like they're going to believe, I mean, if you, if you, after the city got a balanced budget, it was like he's the first mayor to ever balance the budget. You know, the balance budget gets balanced every year. But like he was out there saying, I'm the first mayor to do X, Y and Z. And so I think he's going to say I got a rent freeze because they're going to vote on a rent freeze the first time there's ever freeze. And they're going to say I got childcare because I got to, you know, I'm going to have 5 billion in child care in three years, whatever the, Whatever the agreement is. And I think it's hard. Again, you need an underlying change in circumstances or some different thing in order. And like, plenty of mayors have that different thing, right? People, incidents happen. You know, you can count 50 different things we could think of between Ed Koch and David Dinkins, Rudy Giuliani and de Blasio and Bloomberg, where shit happens and it cripples them and. Or changes the discourse or there's something, you know, whatever. But I think, you know, right now he's sort of, he's. He's gliding and, and there needs to be a change. There needs to be a change in underlying circumstances, plus a cohesion in opposition that has not yet existed.
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A
Trump today said he canceled the bill signings. This is going to seem out of left field, but it'll come together. Of a housing bill that Krista, we worked on, as you know, because he said that if his SAVE act, which is his voting act, isn't passed, he's not doing anything else. And it seems to me to mean that he fully plans on fucking with the midterms one way or another, because he knows the Republicans are headed for a really significant defeat, perhaps losing the Senate as well. And so he's gonna try to disrupt that. And in his history, when he does shit like January 6th, he doesn't ultimately suffer for it. So there's no reason not to keep trying to do it. How confident are you that the midterms will kind of come off peacefully and free and fair?
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B
I mean, I tend to be an optimist, so I'm less worried, and maybe I shouldn't be, but I'm less worried about free and fair elections and more worried about some of the folks who are electing. And you've got. We haven't talked a lot. I mean, I said somewhere, like, nothing matters anymore if you're electing people that believe that France created Covid as a means to blame Asian people because, you know, they want.
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A
Oh, I, I've never even heard that one. Who says that.
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B
One of Darlis's theories.
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A
Oh, Jesus. Yeah.
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B
And so, you know, you've got people that are. I, I think we're in, like, a post. Anything matters. You know, all that matters is APAC is bad news. Bad. And the mayor supported her. And that is enough to get you, whatever it is, 50% in that district. And we're in a world where past statements don't matter. Right. Like some of these past statements, probably. We watched it a little bit with Graham Platter. It's different because there's no mayor dynamic there. But I think there's, I think the underlying frustration with Washington, Right. Like, nobody wants that establishment figure, whether it's Janet Mills or whether it's Adriana Espe. I don't think people, like, I think people are frustrated. They're pissed off about Trump, they're pissed off about the world, they're pissed off about where we are. And instead of sort of trying to diagnose that problem, we the sort of normie establishment folks run this, like, very negative. Like, we're not for anything, right. We're just like against them. And they're mostly out there running like either affordability or we're going to end the war in Israel and stop funding the genociders. Like, they're out there, they have a, they have a positive, they have a message. And I don't think that the other side has, our side really has a cohesive message. But I'm less worried about the elections happening. And I actually think Democrats will take at least the House and hopefully the Senate, too. Whether they then elect Hakeem Jeffries and I doubt they'll elect Chuck Schumer is a different question.
- [18:46]
A
Right. Well, so on the Senate, kind of in two part question for you, one is I've been trying to think about how much it matters in the sense that what you would really want if you're not a Trump supporter, is at least one chamber of Congress to go to the Democrats, because then legislation that you hate doesn't get through. And if that's the House, which it certainly seems like it will be in terms of the Senate, what would really make it different? Right. Because it's not like Trump is all of a sudden going to become a reasonable person and start working with Democrats. He's going to. In fact, I would argue the worse his numbers get and the more he gets blamed for losing the war with Iran or he restarts it to avoid being blamed. And the more unhinged he gets, the less likely he is to be able to do anything productive. So that means that the Senate specifically would matter for confirmations. Trump will just appoint people as acting directors and cabinet members. So it's not going to really change that. So it's judges. If the Democrats take the Senate. Let me just finish the question. I would imagine that Alito and Thomas will retire in time for them to put two people through to replace them. So then it really comes to a question of lower court judges, which is not unimportant. But I can't really point to anything more than that as the impact of whether or not the Democrats take the Senate.
- [20:12]
B
I mean, controlling the discourse in D.C. passing stuff in the House, sending it to the Senate, somehow getting it passed, although super hard to do without 60 votes is meaningful, but. Yeah, it's really the course.
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A
Yeah, but that's all, that's all, you know. No, that's not subsetive.
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B
It's all performative.
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A
Right.
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B
Isn't it?
- [20:32]
A
Well, no, I mean, certain. If you can actually pass a bill through birth chambers and get it signed, that's substantive. Right. So that did happen. Trump, I don't agree with the big beautiful bill, but they did pass it. Right, but that's not gonna happen.
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B
To your point, that's not gonna happen with split houses.
- [20:48]
A
Right, right. So I guess that's, I guess the question is how much does it really matter substantively if the Democrats take the Senate back or not?
- [20:54]
B
I mean, the Supreme Court obviously matters.
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A
Yeah, but I think that they'll either hang on, maybe they die while the Democrats are, you know, but, but they're
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B
gonna have to hang on. If the Democrats can somehow win in two years, they gotta hang on for six years.
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A
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But I think they'll retire. And if the Senate flips, my guess is they might both retire in time for thune to push Trump's two people through. I'm sure Trump knows exactly who he wants to nominate.
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B
Oh, huh. Maybe, maybe that just gets you to
- [21:24]
A
the lower court, which again still certainly matters. But I'm not sure what else really is tangibly impacted by the outcome there and then. I guess the second part would be Chuck, if they win the Senate, does that mean he runs again and does he win? And if they lose the Senate, does that or don't win the Senate, does that mean he kind of knows his times to go and he retires after the next two years?
- [21:48]
B
Well, I think he, I mean, it's hard to predict 28 without knowing what's the world we're in. Right. Where's New York? But as of now, I have a hard time seeing Chuck as leader in 26.7.
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A
Like, I just think that's true. Even if they capture the, the chamber. I think it's. It just. To me, it seems unlike.
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B
Good.
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A
They replace him if he just took the chamber back.
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B
I know, but there's so much of it, like, really, you're going to need some of these folks to vote for him. I mean, maybe, maybe I, I assume that the Democrats would win three or four seats. They'd come up short and replace Chuck.
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A
Got it.
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B
And then I think, by the way, the problem you're gonna have is, like, I don't, if you, if you focus on what the DSA talked about in this election in New York, besides apec, they spend more time talking about Democrats than they do Trump. And so the idea that, like, Darlisa and Claire are going to support Hakeem Jeffries, like, I, I, I, I just don't know. I, I guess there could be some sort of deal with Hakeem and the mayor, and then the mayor puts pressure on them and. But there is, again, this, like, very deep anti establishment feeling.
- [23:01]
A
Yeah, Yeah. I mean, look, that's, that's Hakeem's challenge. But at the end of the day, you can't become speaker without 218 votes. And if the Republicans do what the Democrats did to the, to them, which is just, they just stay united behind, you know, say, united against whoever the Democratic person is, then eventually, if the DSA types have someone that they're putting forward that gets 60 votes and Hakeem is getting 160 or whatever it is, eventually they have to figure that out one way or the other. And look, maybe the answer is it ends up just like Mike Johnson wasn't a candidate till he sort of became speaker. And maybe that's what happens here, too. Yep.
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B
I, I just think it's going to be hard. I mean, I, I assume he can figure it out, but, and he, by the way, he, he himself is lucky that Chiosi didn't run last night because these just, I mean, Hakeem's district is also a district where you have a lot more young white people. And like, I would be, I would be worried, I'd be worried if I was Hakeem. I look at Grace Meng's numbers. Grace Meng had an unserious opponent who was not endorsed by the dsa, had no resources, had no endorsements, and I don't have it in front of me, but I think got 43% of the vote, 44% of the vote. So, you know, if I'm Grace Mang and I won by 13 points in a race that I should have won by 30, and I'm Hakeem, I would be, I, you know, it's, they got to figure some stuff out. If they're in the same place two years from now, they may not be in that place anymore.
- [24:30]
A
Yep. And then on Chuck, if AOC runs for president, who runs for that seat and do their choices to run or not run at all depend on whether or not Chuck's in the race.
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B
I assume that AOC is going to run for the Senate seat. I guess I could be wrong, but that's sort of been my assumption. I don't know. You know, someone like Tish James would have been the answer two years ago. Tish is going to have trouble on the left. She's a pro. She's like, quote, pro Israel. So it just depends where we are. It's hard to see a pro Israel candidate winning that statewide Senate seat. I assume the left would have a candidate. If AOC was not the candidate. I don't know exactly who that would be, but. But it would be someone like, with the mayor's support and the sort of far left coalition.
- [25:27]
A
Got it. Cool. Any. Any closing words, Chris?
- [25:29]
B
No, I think, you know, I. I don't know what to do. What did you think of last night? Did you have any feelings different than, than I have?
- [25:37]
A
Not really. I mean, I just think that we're putting ourselves in a world where only the extremes can win because so few people vote, because so many people are disenfranchised that just sort of screaming about the thing that will make disenfranchised people feel. The people who do participate feel good emotionally, whether that's Trump and MAGA or the DSA and Israel and everything else. It just keeps dooming us further and further to a world where we're so focused on politics, so focused on rhetoric, so focused on image and Instagram and everything else that we're just neuro fiddling. And if we can't fundamentally. And you know, no one here wants to hear me talk more about mobile voting. But if we can't fundamentally change what is driving our electoral choices, since we're only Latin people who don't actually care about getting things done, then this country's not going to survive. I would not belong on America's future right now.
- [26:39]
B
And I think, you know, if you're an Israel voter, you've always taken solace in the fact that the Republicans have been strong supporters and you can sort of count on that. And then, you know, you look at this week and you've got Donald Trump, you know, and J.D. vance, like slamming Israel. And I would be very, very worried right now that it's not just the Democrat Party, but you've got lots of festering Republicans and those walls are closing in. And I don't know that Israel changes policies or governments because of the United States politics. And so then what? And that's, you know, who is, you know, will AIPAC be a force over the next couple of years? If their very existence in these races becomes the dominant feature of their race? And then if not, then what?
- [27:32]
A
Yep. Yep, it is. None of it's good. All right, well, on that depressing note, we will close this this episode. So, Chris, thanks for joining us.
- [27:40]
B
Okay, thank you. Talk soon. Okay, thanks for having me.
- [27:45]
A
Firewalls recorded at my bookstore, PNT Netware, located at 180 Orchard street on the lower east side of Manhattan. We'd love to hear from you with questions, feedback backs, or idea for a guest. Just email me at Bradley at Firewall Media or find me on LinkedIn. And to keep up with what's on my mind and my latest writing, please follow my new substack at bradleytus Substack. Com. Thanks again for listening.