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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome back to Firewall. I'm your host, Bradley Tusk. It's a Tuesday episode, so with us is our friend and producer, Hugo Lindgren. Hugo, how you doing?
- [00:15]
B
I'm good, Bradley. Good morning. Bradley nicely brought me a cup of coffee, which I nearly just spilled all over my keyboard, so I just, like, feel like I averted a disaster. Right.
- [00:23]
A
So iPhones are now waterproof. Right. Are laptops waterproof?
- [00:26]
B
I don't think so. Because once it gets in, it can still go on the keyboard. Right. Like, can they stop that from happening? Right.
- [00:32]
A
Because it gets into the.
- [00:33]
B
Is it fully. Like, you can dump your iPhone into a bath and it's fine. Or pool.
- [00:36]
A
I don't know. I don't. Haven't really experimented with that, but I
- [00:39]
B
know you stay away from bodies.
- [00:40]
A
Yeah. I don't want things submerged in water in general, but I don't take it into the shower with me. But, you know, if you haven't gotten
- [00:45]
B
that bad, you don't.
- [00:46]
A
But if your iPhone gets a little wet, it's not a problem.
- [00:48]
B
Yeah. I just got a new iPhone, and I have to say, is it different than. Well, I got to the bigger one, you know, so that's a. Kind of a. Feels like a big change, you know, like, because suddenly you have kind of a.
- [01:00]
A
Do they still try to make, like, step changes in the iPhone or is it just now, like, the same thing? It's just what it is. It's a utility now. Yeah.
- [01:08]
B
The camera is better, though, right? They always improve the camera, the thing.
- [01:11]
A
But do people still get excited about, like, the iPhone 18, or is it just now kind of. You have it just like you have, like, toothpaste or something?
- [01:20]
B
I think people. Yeah, I think it's like toothpaste or something. I mean, it's just sort of a problem. Right? Like, so how do you get. How do you generate, like, excitement and, like, I mean, Apple was the most exciting consumer product for, like, half of our adult lives Now, I mean, they
- [01:33]
A
have to be able to invent something that people would really want. And look, oftentimes those are things we don't know we want. Right. But the things they've tried, like, tends to be like, headgear, like, VR or eyeglasses.
- [01:48]
B
The headgear is just not working, is it?
- [01:50]
A
Or like, those meta sunglasses or whatever. Like, I don't think people want that stuff. Right. So it'll happen sooner or later. But at the moment, I don't feel like the kinds of things that I feel like, wouldn't it be cool if are not like product enhancements. It's like if you could fly like, you know.
- [02:11]
B
Right.
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A
So like.
- [02:11]
B
Like, if you could fly, like.
- [02:13]
A
I just mean, like, I don't feel.
- [02:15]
B
Jetpack.
- [02:16]
A
Jetpack would be great. Like, I don't feel like my life would be materially improved or easier in any way with an upgrade of some sort of consumer product.
- [02:26]
B
Yeah, yeah, I agree. Yeah. It's hard to see what that could
- [02:29]
A
possibly be at the moment. Yeah, Someone will come up with it, obviously, but. But I don't. It's not like the world is waiting for everyone to solve this thing. You know, when it comes to like personal electronic gadgets, it could be jet packs.
- [02:41]
B
Could be it like, that could be the.
- [02:43]
A
You know, I don't really trust myself with a jetpack.
- [02:46]
B
I don't trust you with a jetpack either.
- [02:48]
A
I fly right into a building.
- [02:50]
B
Okay, so you were returning from a trip to. I got it from. From Europe. I got a series of enthusiastic.
- [02:57]
A
Well, because your family's from Sweden.
- [02:59]
B
Yes, they are.
- [03:00]
A
And your Stockholm is one of your favorite places in the world. I do like it and I loved it. And I loved. It was a great trip because, you know, when you go somewhere and you don't have any preconceived expectations.
- [03:11]
B
Right. You're just going interestingly.
- [03:14]
A
So I went to Copenhagen for my mom's 80th birthday with my parents, my sister and my niece Ellie, who was of.
- [03:21]
B
And how did you pick Copenhagen? Is that just. You guys had.
- [03:24]
A
Paris was from. And then I had not been to Copenhagen or Stockholm and neither had Issa, my girlfriend. We decided we'll meet in Copenhagen and go to Stockholm. But of the two, the one that I had expectations of was Copenhagen. Because people make a big deal about Copenhagen.
- [03:37]
B
Yeah, they do, right?
- [03:37]
A
Oh, it's so amazing. It was fine.
- [03:40]
B
Yeah.
- [03:41]
A
If I had never gone, that would have been fine. I don't see a world where I ever need to go back. It was okay. There's nothing wrong with it. I thought Stockholm was one of the most incredible places I've ever been.
- [03:50]
B
And so I know this is actually going to be the last thing you're going to be.
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A
This is the recommendation.
- [03:55]
B
This is the recommendation of Stockholm. But tell me what one of the things you said was. The city hall was like, so.
- [04:01]
A
Yeah, I mean, their city hall, which was built about 100 years ago, is one of the most spectacular public buildings I have ever seen. And it's more of almost a museum slash monument as it is. I mean, I do think it's where they run the city out of. But the main area in the lobby is where they have the annual Nobel banquet. And it is just this absolute spectacular series of massive rooms, one of which each seems to have nothing to do with the other, with incredible frescoes, but not really Italianate and different types of ceilings and mirrors, and it was just spectacular. I don't, you know, I don't really have great words to describe it other than it's, you know, if you're curious what I'm saying, go check it out online. But if you're ever in Stockholm, it is the most. It's the inside of it is the most interesting government building I've ever seen. I thought I was in Kuala Lumpur and they built this like whole kind of city area within it of government buildings. And we didn't go in them, but the outsides were pretty spectacular. But this last time was just the outside I've seen. This is the most interesting inside.
- [05:14]
B
And did your mind instantly go to like, we should have something like, no, no, no.
- [05:18]
A
You would be an insane use of money. I do kind of wonder that if there's not a world where through AI you can eventually develop methods of construction, methods of sort of more artistic production of, you know, Sheetrock or concrete or stone or whatever it is to look really spectacular in a way that older buildings tend to be. Like when I was. We talked this on the podcast, I think last week when I was in Paris. You know, you just kind of walk down the street in Paris and every building is seemingly spectacular. And it kind of hit me that they built everything when it was dirt cheap to build everything. And then because of a combination of regulation and Paris being a wealthy city, they were able to maintain it. And so that's why Paris is the way it is. But I don't know that you could build much of that today. I once saw a cool startup, I think it was called Monument, that was trying to do something like that. So maybe in the future, but no, using taxpayer dollars for that today would be crazy.
- [06:24]
B
Okay, so there was the City Hall. What else just stood out? Awesome, right?
- [06:29]
A
Hotel was the same. It's called Et Hem. If you happen to be in Stockholm
- [06:33]
B
and you can look, I looked it up. I had not heard of it, but then apparently it's like one of the top rated hotels in the world.
- [06:38]
A
It was spectacular. It was like, I think it means in Swedish at home. And it was like being in this incredible house. The rooms were beautiful, the common spaces. But, you know, also like, we went to the Bad Bunny concert on Friday Night, which I didn't expect to. We were literally at a stoplight. I looked out the window and I saw a poster. Bad bunny. And then I looked at the date.
- [07:00]
B
It's like, tomorrow, I guess we're destined to go.
- [07:04]
A
So we went and it was fun. And when we got back, was at the hotel, like, is there any, like, room service still open? They're like, are you hungry? Or like, yeah. They're like, all right, we'll just make you some dinner. What do you feel like having this menu? They're like. Or like pasta. And they made this, like, incredible meal. I'm like, that's what it is. Like, whatever you want, whenever you want,
- [07:22]
B
take care of it.
- [07:22]
A
They just take care of it. It was an incredible place. The hotel was amazing. I thought. I love, like, cured fish and all of that. So the.
- [07:30]
B
The breakfast stuff in the morning is crazy.
- [07:32]
A
Was great. Architecture was incredible. Like, just beautiful. And by the way, like, not just like one or two cool areas. I felt like every time we walked around, we would sort of stumble on a new neighborhood that was like, wow, look at this. Obviously, incredibly kind of clean and well run, but it didn't feel oppressive in that way, you know, and some great museums. So I don't know. I thought Stockholm was just an incredible, awesome.
- [08:00]
B
Well, I obviously concur. So you want to talk about two things today.
- [08:03]
A
Yeah.
- [08:04]
B
You have a substack essay on Grace. Yes. And then we want to talk about a sort of Trump scenario. Yeah.
- [08:09]
A
Like a fantasy that's not going to happen. But isn't it?
- [08:12]
B
I got into it when you laid it out. But anyway, we'll talk about that after your essay.
- [08:16]
A
Yeah, so. So, you know, as listeners of this podcast know, I spent a lot of time thinking about how to be happy. And most of the time, the best advice would be stop thinking about it so much because it tends to be counterproductive. But once in a while, something useful occurs to me. And the other day, I was kind of noticing my tendency to compare my choices to everyone else's. So rather than just sort of accepting we're all different, everyone does what they think makes sense for them. And there's really no reason not to just let everyone be. I instead sort of say, okay, well, what did I choose? What did they choose? And inherently judge theirs to be worse. And even in both directions, Right. This person is too showy, and that person is too cheap. This person is too stringent, and that one is too relaxed. This product is too expensive, and this one isn't good enough. This activity is too intense and that one is too easy, and so on. And I don't think it's just me. I mean, I think it's very hard to make a complex personal choice without then contrasting it to what someone else chose in a similar situation. And the exact calibration that we make seems right, because otherwise we wouldn't make it that way. And almost by definition, everything else seems a little less right. And so we set the baseline of the choice that we make, and then our brains kind of almost naturally default to judging others, especially when we feel threatened or unsure of our choices. But the problem is this. Every time we render a non essential negative judgment, we're creating a negative emotion. And each negative judgment might be barely noticeable, barely perceptible, but collectively, I think they shape our outlook, our ability to feel positive emotions, our own ability to feel happy. So I think we pay a kind of significant emotional price for it. And you just think about all the miserable, bitter, angry people, you know, like how many of them judge other people generously, right? Almost by definition, they don't. And I feel my worst when I'm either internalizing or anticipating personal conflict, or I'm defending my choices to myself, or I'm picking apart the choices of others. And I feel my best when all feels right with the world. So when I feel magnanimity, when I feel benevolence, when I feel grace, I feel good. And so what I was thinking is, okay, that's a sort of obvious insight, but one that I kind of hadn't really thought about that way till now. So what do you do with it? And it can't be, well, turn your brain off, because that's not possible. So the question is, can you train your brain to develop better patterns? And I think, yes, right? We train our bodies to be able to exercise more, sleep, better, whatever it is. And, and I think that if you replace anger or askance or judgment or suspicion or jealousy with apathy or even love, you're training your mind to avoid negative emotions and you're teaching it to embrace positive ones. And so I started looking into it. I found a couple of studies that I thought were interesting. There was one in 2008 by Richard Davidson and Anton Lutz at the University of Wisconsin. And they used FMRI brain scans to prove that compassion and extending grace are skills that can be intentionally trained, just like a physical muscle. And when you think about that, it means, okay, the underlying popular conventional wisdom of grace is that you are being selfless, you are doing for others. And I would Argue it's not right. Showing grace. Extending grace is about maximizing your own well being. It's a form of enlightened self interest. Look, I'm not a Christian, but I think Jesus was probably onto something when he said to turn the other cheek or if religion isn't your thing. There's Another study from 1990, again from the University of Wisconsin professor named James Andreoni. And he found that pro social behaviors like forgiveness, giving others a pass can yield a measurable internal utility payoff. Or there's a professor at University of Michigan, Barbara Fredrickson, and she found empirical proof that micro moments of subtle judgment or suspicion really narrow your cognitive flexibility. And that triggers negative physiological stress responses, which means it makes you unhappy. But she also found that if you extend grace and apathy actively, it broadens your mind and builds your psychological resilience. And I would say it's not even just how we think of others. It's also how we respond to the way others think of us and respond to us. And we live in a world. All these studies are a little older and I think social media has really kind of happened since then. And if you look at the main development, it would be, it is so easy to render faceless criticism on social media. And when that happens, you know, you can't help but be judged. The reason I don't use social media is because it makes you unhappy. But one of the reasons it makes you unhappy, especially someone like me who is out there in the public realm and expressing opinions about different ideas and people positions and things like that, is there's just sort of endless criticism. And when you read it, you feel bad.
- [13:08]
B
Right.
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A
And you know, even though we know what those people are online. Right. I was thinking about that phrase, you know, those who can do and those who can't teach.
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B
Right.
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A
And I kind of adopted it to, you know, those who can do and those who can't tweet. But even though you know that, it doesn't mean that you automatically can just ignore it. So the question is, how do you overcome that criticism? And it doesn't matter whether that's online or in real life. And I think the answer is not by attacking back, it's not by having this sort of Trumpian zero sum mentality. We're always paranoid and you're always at war with everyone else, but it's actually by extending that person a little bit of grace. And I think the more empathy you have for them, the less their criticism matters. And the more grace you extend them, the more you Take away their power. And look, there are times where this may not be the best option. You could have a business strategy that's rightfully different. There are some broader societal values to using judgment to compel pro social behavior. And there are sometimes people you have to deal with where grace is just not a viable option and it can even be a net harm. It's like I found a study by another Michigan professor named Robert Axelrod that he looked at iterated prisoner dilemma computer tournaments and found that when those people turn the other cheek, it was exploited by bad actors. Right. But that's a very specific set of circumstances. And I think most of the time
- [14:28]
B
that's what happens in politics, right?
- [14:30]
A
Yeah, but it happens because it's self fulfilling, right? It's the people who oftentimes will put themselves through the rigor of an election or because their psychological needs are so outsized that everything is about fulfilling their need for validation and affirmation and it becomes a zero sum game between them and everyone else. And they're just in this endless competition with each other. Right. And yes, winning the battle in Washington might mean being able to do that, but winning the war is not that. Right. I always find that the politicians who are so obsessed with winning each news cycle tend to be the ones that ultimately fail because they miss the forest for the trees. Right. If the war at the end of the day is, I have X amount of years on this planet and I want to maximize the benefit of them, the best way to do that is to feel happy, is to feel peace, is to feel contentment. And look, that doesn't mean that you're a monk, right? Because for example, there's a guy, Matthew Ricardo, he's that French guy who's spent, I don't know, a couple of decades meditating and they did these FMRI studies of his brain and he had the highest sort of rankings in his left hemisphere of certain characteristics. And he was declared the world's happiest man. And I took issue with that because I was like, yeah, fine, but he spent decades doing nothing, right? Help anybody. He didn't do anything, achieve anything. You know, he just meditated. Right. So like, I don't think, to me the goal is not peace and contentment at the expense of everything else, because I think that's not a life well lived. It is. How do you do things that are meaningful while maximizing your peace and contentment? And by the way, in politics that's hard. I mean, there are definitely walks of life where that is difficult. One of the reasons that I don't really work in electoral politics is because I don't really want to deal with that mentality and approach to life. And every time I forget that and wade back into it, I'm quickly reminded of it and I get the shit kicked out of me one way or another. One of the reasons that I've never worked in Washington again was because I just didn't like the. I didn't want to be part of it. One of the reasons where when you were, you know, sort of exploring Hollywood and doing things in it, you didn't move your family to LA and go into it full time, because I think, you tell me, but like, not a culture that you want to become the entirety of your professional life, right? Correct. So there are definitely situations where
- [17:02]
B
you
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A
might need to not extend grace, but I think even in those, if you are in a world where it is like that, I think you have to ask yourself, one, is that the world that I want to be in? And two, if so, is there a way to navigate it that will derive the most value for me? So for me personally, one conclusion that I've reached is I'm not, at least I don't think really in competition with anyone else to be the most, to have the most money, have the most power, the most this, the most, that it's. How do I take the things that I know matter to me and maximize those things? What are the issues where I really do want to change the world? How do I have the resources to do that? How do I live my life in a way that kind of feels meaningful to me? And I think that, look, I have been lucky to develop enough sort of freedom, both financially and just sort of psychologically that I have maybe more agency than the average person. But I think that, you know, ultimately, the more that we can do, the better off we are. But even for someone like me, who is able to basically pick and choose how I spend my time, who I spend my time with, what I work on and everything else, you know, I'm still. If I am constantly in this position where I compare my choices to everyone else's and I kind of judge theirs as negative, in a way, I'm hurting myself. I am creating these unnecessary negative emotions in my brain, and that leads to a decrease in my happiness, my wellbeing. So I think that if our goal is always to try to find ways to make our lives better, one way to do it at least I think for me, that I'm working on. And again, I'm pretty Sure, I'm not. The only person in this position is to figure out how to extend more grace, how to judge less, how not to think about things in a negative way. And that's both proactively, when someone else makes a choice different than mine, but also even maybe more important, you know, when someone is critical of me is rather than getting upset and angry and fighting back, sometimes the answer is to just accept that, you know, they're having a hard time, a hard day, a hard life, whatever it is, and just kind of have some empathy for them as opposed to just automatically feeling like you're at war. And look, I don't think any of this is easy to do, but I think the good news is, I was thinking about it is it doesn't really require going to school or having an operation. It's like exercise. It just kind of requires doing it every time that we sort of have the mental awareness of, okay, I'm not going to judge this other person's choices in a negative way. I'm not going to feel incredibly angry and aggressive towards someone who might have been critical of me. And every time that we extend grace, we internalize that behavior a little bit more and a little bit more and a little bit more. And I think ultimately that just makes us happier. And how does this.
- [20:16]
B
Was this something that was sort of on your mind on vacation? Like, this was sort of like, is that where this comes from?
- [20:22]
A
No, I just been. I'd been thinking about it generally,
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B
and
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A
no, I just felt like it was something that had been on my mind as here is an area of life that I can control. Right. So there are things that happen that you don't totally control. Like, for example, you know, this past year between mobile voting and school meals, we ran 11 different bills and lost all but one of them. And even the one that we didn't lose would be universal school breakfast in South Carolina. And that's not done yet. And I felt really upset at our failure and in some ways at the state of the world where the notion of feeding 100 kids at the very least is so unimportant to people that it wasn't even a priority for them. And we're regrouping and figuring out everything we did wrong and doing things differently. But I can't fully control the outcome of a legislature. Right. But what I can be in charge of is my own mind. Right. And I can look at what are the times where I don't feel as good as I could, and is there anything I can do about that? And there are times where the answer is yes. And one of those things would be, you know, when do I generate negative emotions unnecessarily? You know, look, we all have a negativity bias, and that's how we know to leave the house when we saw smoke. That's not how we turn the other way if you see a line or whatever. Right. But there's a difference between negativity bias. I mean, I think this is part of why the world feels so unhappy these days, is when we developed evolutionarily, I think in negativity bias, it was literally for survival, right? Now there aren't lions walking around Orchard Street. And yet at the same time, that evolutionary instinct hasn't gone away. And so instead we apply it to a lot of things that ultimately are not really threats. Yeah, yeah, real threats. And all it really does is make us less happy. Right. You know, there might be times where you avoid some kind of problem because you're a little more paranoid, but like the idea. I'm sure you can go online and find a million sayings along lines like only the paranoid survive or whatever it is. But if you have a zero sum view of the world where it's you versus everyone else, I don't know how you can win. Right. Because even if you actually do manage to vanquish everyone else, it is through constant paranoia, conflict, aggression. None of those are happy emotions. Right. I guess if you are a sociopath, I think Arthur Brooks would say, I think something like 7% of the population has what he calls dark triad traits. And maybe those people, normal logic and feelings don't apply. But for the other 93%, even winning is losing.
- [23:17]
B
Yeah. Well, that leads us pretty naturally to the President. Yes.
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A
Which, by the way, I do think he's.
- [23:23]
B
I mean, I feel like you were just talking about him without talking about him. No way.
- [23:26]
A
And I do think he's in that 7% that, you know, he does seem unhappy all the time.
- [23:32]
B
I mean, he seems like the most unhappy person.
- [23:34]
A
On the other hand, I do think that he does like the idea for him that you win something and you have the most, but it's at the cost of any real. Like, does anyone really love him? Like, actually love him? I don't mean like his. The MAGA crazies. I mean like human beings do. His kids, maybe they do.
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B
I mean, it's impossible to say, but you could build a pretty good case that they don't. But, like, what do we know? We don't know.
- [24:04]
A
And does he actually love anyone? I Don't know that he's capable of it. Right. He doesn't seem.
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B
He's really bad at expressing it.
- [24:09]
A
Yeah. And so, like, I wouldn't want that life. Right. And that's why there are, by the way, so many miserable rich people. Because, you know, this is a theme of this podcast, obviously, but if you define the entirety of life as success, and success is just about the accumulation of wealth and status, we know that that is not the path towards happiness. So. Anyway, but the next one, yeah. Is very specifically about Trump, and I sent this to Hugo, and I'm going to read out the scenario. To be clear, this is somewhere between wild fantasy and fantasy. The odds of this happening are less than 1%.
- [24:50]
B
Less than 1%.
- [24:51]
A
Yeah. I mean, not of every step happening, but the conclusion. So step number one, which is there's no way out of the Iran war, right, Even from when I sent you this scenario, like five days ago.
- [25:04]
B
No, it's only getting worse to now.
- [25:05]
A
It's only getting worse.
- [25:05]
B
Right.
- [25:06]
A
There's no way out of it because Iran now realizes that every time they close the Strait, they fuck up the entire global economy. In fact, the IMF said that they're expecting basically a global recession next year because the impact of the closure of the Strait on commodity prices all over the world means a significant slowdown in economic activity. Right. So Iran, which just seeks. Is a chaos agent, right? Always has been, at least since the revolution.
- [25:33]
B
But now their ability to create chaos
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A
is wide, much, much wider because they realize they could do something they didn't understand before, thanks to Trump. And so. And they don't really have any incentive, it seems like, to resolve this, because, you know, they also seem to have the people in charge there, very little regard for human life. And they already have this sort of death to America ethos. Then to the extent that Khomeini is calling the shots that killed his dad, they disfigured him, so he's not in any sort of rush to make this work out for the US and they're not stupid. They understand that Trump is losing and paying a price for it. And the worse and worse it gets, in some ways, the more of a chilling effect it creates for others to not fuck with them going forward. Right? So there's no real way out of this thing other than for Trump to eventually cut another deal. And he already tried to cut one that didn't work. And the one he cut was objectively, horrifically embarrassing and humiliating for him and for America. And everyone said that. And because everyone said that that's why he sort of freaked out and basically reneged on it. Iran's going to make, if there is another one, it's going to be the same deal or worse for the US And Trump. Which means that either we're in a constant war where the economy gets worse and worse and Trump gets more and more and more unpopular and either way he is seen as a loser, which is sort of the one thing that he can't handle. Right. Or anything.
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B
He can't handle. Yeah, I was going to say there's a few things he can't handle, but that's number one on the list.
- [27:16]
A
So if there's no way out except abject accumulation for Trump and then when that happens, everyone says that, you know, Trump is fetal Iran's bitch and that he will psychologically go even crazier than he is now. Democrats win both chambers because of gas prices, economy, and Trump just being more and more and more unpopular and there's no separation between him and the rest of the Republican Party. Number four would be House flips with Democrats. Democrats take power, they impeach Trump. I don't know that this is Jeffries plan. I think that if they were smart, they probably wouldn't because it just plays into the normal stereotypes.
- [27:54]
B
They're not gonna.
- [27:55]
A
I'm not saying that they won't. I'm saying that I don't know what they get out of impeaching him if he's not removed for a third time. All it does is just confirm all the usual stuff. But with that said, Jeffries, while he is, I think almost assuredly gonna be the next speaker, if you have this very, very loud progressive wing of the party that is going to demand things in return for supporting him as speaker, he's gonna have to give them things. And if one of those things is an impeachment process, I think it might happen whether he wants it to or not, or he thinks it's a good idea or not. So then 5 would be all of the collective humiliation. So Democrats impeach Trump. The Iran war is just an abject loss for him. He's lost both chambers. His popularity is plummeting. And there is a. And the question on this one is, where's the floor? Right. Is it 35? Is it 30? Is it 38? There are certainly plenty of polls that show that his disapprove is now well into the 60s. I don't know if it's possible for it to get to 70. I think that's probably, if it is the tipping Point where all of a sudden, it becomes so clear that he has failed so miserably that I think for him, he is not psychologically stable enough to say, all right, let me pull back and regroup. It will be to double down on all the crazy shit. Right?
- [29:25]
B
Right.
- [29:26]
A
He's so easily baited into anything. And so he does something kind of Akin to January 6, tries to stop the elections this November, you know, has ICE shooting people at a lot higher clip on the streets, whatever it would be. Right. But something that the American public recoils at, his disapproval does hit 70% in this fantasy. And you start to see Republican elected officials publicly going after him because, again, they don't support him, because they like him. They don't support him because they believe in him. They support him because they are afraid of him, because they believe that in order for them to win their next primary, they have to have his support. And by the way, his track record in the Republican primaries in 2026 was pretty good. Not all of them, but most of them. So he's that power, that fear is justified. But let's say that enough things happen that we just described that that starts to flip. Then you get to a question of like, okay, the impeachment happens. Removal's now taken up by the Senate. It's only being taken up if the Democrats control the chamber. Let's assume they do. So they've got 51. So in that scenario, they need 15 out of 49 Republican votes to remove Trump. So then the question is, is there a world where there are 15 Republicans in the Senate who would choose to do this? Clearly, if you didn't do it after January 6th, when you were literally physically running for your lives because of him, then the answer is no. But here's release from a purpose of making this fun is could you cobble together a list of people who are either retiring and they're like, fuck this. And keep in mind, you'll have had a new Congress take, be seated, so you'll have less of that.
- [31:20]
B
Right.
- [31:21]
A
But because there are 33 Senate elections every two years, you could have people who are up in 28 or 30 that know that they're not gonna stay. Right. Are there a few people like Murkowski who genuinely have enough balls to do it? And then, okay, but that still maybe gets you to, like, five. Right? And so now where do you pick up the other 10? This is where it's fun. Could JD Vance make a play? Right. Could Vance say, I want to be president? If I am president, even if it's only for two years. I'm still in the history books. Right. No one ever remembers the vice presidents. Everyone remembers the presidents. And it'll give me a better shot. I'll sort of be the presumptive Republican nominee and so I won't have to sort of fight through that nearly as much. And then I still take on the Democrat. But you know, Democrats have a great way of always shooting themselves in the foot, so. Right. And then it's okay. How does he pick up 10 votes? Right. And it's one of those things where like, you almost need them all to know the votes are going to be there for it to happen. And if like one person chickens out, the whole thing falls. Yeah.
- [32:29]
B
And it has to happen in like, like a day. Right.
- [32:32]
A
Like, I mean, it has happened really fast and really quietly. So what could you do? He could replace pretty much everyone on the Cabinet. Right. He has no reason to keep any of these people necessarily.
- [32:44]
B
So you're talking about Vance.
- [32:46]
A
Vance. So Vance is president. He can offer someone, state, someone treasury, someone ag, someone dod. He can give away cabinet seats.
- [32:55]
B
Do you think, like pretty much every senator wants one of those?
- [32:58]
A
I think that there are certain jobs, at least the four that I just named, that are clearly better than being a senator. Right, right.
- [33:05]
B
In a two year, like sort of weird.
- [33:08]
A
Yeah, I think so. It's still better right now. Look, maybe if you're young and your goal is to sort of be there forever. No. But you know, and then what's two years plus you're betting that if he does win, you know, you're able to.
- [33:23]
B
You've made history in this incredible way.
- [33:25]
A
Yes. And then maybe one or two would like to be a judge. He could promise Supreme Court openings when they open up and all that kind of stuff. Maybe one or two think, okay, if he does win, I'll be the point person in the Senate for whatever. Right. And that for the Republicans and that'll be valuable. I don't know. I mean, I think getting to 15 would be incredibly hard. I think that requires Trump kind of disapproval, going, hitting, clearing 70, which is incredibly hard. But if all.
- [34:02]
B
It also necessitates his, like an acceleration of his physical and cognitive decline too. Right. So.
- [34:09]
A
Yeah. Right. Because that creates some level of COVID in a weird way, because of the way that Biden imploded. It does create a narrative for Vance
- [34:20]
B
to say, I'm doing the right thing.
- [34:21]
A
Well, I'm doing the right thing. Right. Lets everyone claim they're doing the right thing. And it lets them also Say they're doing the smart thing because look at what already happened to the Democrats when they stuck with a president who clearly had dementia.
- [34:33]
B
Right.
- [34:33]
A
So therefore we can't make that mistake.
- [34:35]
B
Right, right.
- [34:36]
A
So it would take that too. So I guess that should go into the mix also in terms of the factors. So, you know, is this gonna happen? No. But could some of the steps at least, right. Like the war either just continuing like this or its solution being a total humiliation for Trump happen? Yes, that's almost definite. Would Trump go crazy if and when everyone says that he was humiliated?
- [35:00]
B
Yes. Feels like it's already happening.
- [35:01]
A
That's happened. Democrats win both chambers in the House is happening. And the Senate might. Right. So we'll see House Dems impeach him. You know, decent shot that they will Trump then collectively being so humiliated that he does something even crazier than usual possible.
- [35:20]
B
See, this seems like as you walk through it, this is way more than 1%.
- [35:23]
A
Well, but then here's where you get to the problem.
- [35:25]
B
It's the 10 people that they.
- [35:26]
A
It's the 10 people, it's the disapproval hitting 70 to even activate the possibility of it.
- [35:33]
B
It's basically 60 right now, right? It's like 59 or something.
- [35:36]
A
Disapproval, yeah. 60, 62, 63. 364. Yeah. But the question is those are hard fought, those, that last piece.
- [35:43]
B
Right.
- [35:44]
A
And then to your point, on the decline, I would say with him is like, you know, every time you kind of bet against him in that way,
- [35:52]
B
he seemed like he's just about cooked at various points and then he's like,
- [35:56]
A
yeah, so like shot, you know, so like, so who knows, right. That one also is just hard to bet on. So, you know, that's why I still do think that, you know, less than 1% is a reasonable number here, but, you know, it's a fun fantasy, so. And by the way, I do believe that as horrible as Vance might be, it's just you're at least going back to the world of a rational human being, I guess. Not a completely psychologically addled one.
- [36:26]
B
Yeah, I mean, it's hard to imagine a worse scenario than Trump, but on the other hand, Vance just feels like the most boot looking.
- [36:35]
A
I mean, I guess there is a question of that. Some will argue, I assume a lot of Democrats who either will feel this way or just desperately need things to talk about to try to sound smart because that's their identity, that we're better off with the two more years of Trump than the risk of six years of Vance or 10 years of ants.
- [36:54]
B
Did you have any particular reaction to Lindsey Graham's death or about his career?
- [36:58]
A
I mean, you know, no. I mean, it was interesting. I didn't really feel all that much one way or another.
- [37:08]
B
Right.
- [37:09]
A
I didn't particularly like him, but, you know, in the effort of grace, I'm not gonna, like, dance all over his grave. I'm not particularly partisan. I'm not a member of either party. I don't hate Republicans because they're Republicans. So. No, I mean, you know. No, I really didn't. Did you? No, no, I just.
- [37:28]
B
It just. It just sort of. Whatever. Just showed the fragility of things, of course. And like, you know, he was. Obviously seemed to be of pretty decent health and was like, I mean, whatever. He's supposed to be on, like, television the day that he died.
- [37:40]
A
So, I mean, what it does say is, look, maybe he. I don't know, this Graham, maybe he was a happy man and he liked the life he was living and everything else. But if you live in a world where you are constantly just trying to curry favor and accumulate power, everything, whether it's Grandma or anyone else.
- [37:54]
B
Yeah.
- [37:55]
A
And everything is about, well, I'm going to make this compromise, this compromise and this compromise, because it'll pay off later and I'll be happy and I'll feel good. Like, that's a really suspicious worldview because shit does happen, right? People do get hit by the bus. You know, you're. You have an aortic tear that causes an immediate, you know, heart attack, whatever it might be, Right. So, like, just things go wrong and to a certain extent, you know, if you can live in a way where, you know that if you died at that moment, you would feel like your life was well lived and that, you know, people would get up at your funeral and say things in a eulogy that you would be proud of, like that's probably what you want to go for, and not the, you know, knowing it's not that, but because things will pay off later. This is not to say, not to sacrifice and work hard and everything else. So it's not about investing in the future or even sometimes suffering in the short term for the future. It's about making choices that clearly are not good ones because you think that it'll. All the ants will justify the means eventually.
- [39:01]
B
You're going to the baseball All Star game?
- [39:03]
A
Yeah. Tomorrow Lyle and I are going.
- [39:05]
B
And now tomorrow is also Spain versus France. Are you and Lyle going to watch that?
- [39:11]
A
No.
- [39:12]
B
Does Lyle not care about the World Cup?
- [39:14]
A
Not at all zero, zero. I think the game is it a three.
- [39:18]
B
Yeah.
- [39:19]
A
We're taking like a train, like four. So maybe on the train we'll watch a little bit of it. I'll root for Spain. I was in France for one of the games and it was fucking nuts. Like people just like every bar was overflowing. People chunking their horses. Just like the next street. Yeah. Yes, yes. It, it. You know, it's interesting though. I brought up Wemby a few times, thinking people would be excited. Nobody cared at all. I don't know if it's cuz they're French or what, but I thought like people would be like into it and they're like.
- [39:51]
B
It's like soccer definitely has taken over.
- [39:53]
A
They either pretended they didn't know he was.
- [39:54]
B
No, they didn't pretend they didn't know
- [39:56]
A
they were like, who? Yeah. Or they were just like, ah, whatever. Like just again, they're the French. So like, maybe that's the worst possible, you know, example. But I was surprised at how uninterested the few people I brought it up to have seen.
- [40:11]
B
Four teams left. Do you care who wins?
- [40:13]
A
No, not at all. I'll root for Spain because I spent a semester there when I was in college and I liked it. But beyond that note, who are you rooting for?
- [40:21]
B
I think I'm rooting for France. I went to watch with a friend of mine who's French.
- [40:25]
A
Just because you like the way they play.
- [40:27]
B
Well, I do like the way they play, but actually since I went to the last game, the game against Belgium, I. And I just loved watching it with a French crowd. It was just so much fun.
- [40:39]
A
You went to the World Cup?
- [40:41]
B
No, I didn't go. I know. I just watched in a French restaurant.
- [40:43]
A
Oh God.
- [40:44]
B
I didn't go.
- [40:44]
A
Yeah, but although it doesn't like France really, I mean, by the way, I was just in Paris. It was great, you know, but still, like, it just seems like the one place that like, it's just hard to really want to root for is France.
- [40:59]
B
Yeah, it's funny, I said Belgium. They played Morocco and beat Morocco. I agree with you. But like just, you know, being part of a sort of.
- [41:07]
A
Don't you think if you went to a Spanish bar or a whatever bar.
- [41:11]
B
Yes, but I didn't. I went to the French one. But yes, I totally if went to an Argentinian one. I'd probably love that too.
- [41:15]
A
Right, right. And I guess there's no real sports narrative around Messi, like. Cause he's already done this. Like there's Nothing. Right.
- [41:24]
B
Yeah. Although at the level that he's at, there's that sort of greatness. There's. There's always stakes. There's.
- [41:30]
A
Yes, but it's sort of like. There's no, like, coda to the whole thing where, you know, this will make the movie even better. Like, it just. It's all happened.
- [41:40]
B
Yeah, Right.
- [41:40]
A
I mean, Michael Jordan won a seventh title. Okay.
- [41:43]
B
I mean, in a weird way, you probably have the Final Four teams. You want England because it is. It. The. The symmetry with the Knicks is really cool. Like, they wanted 60 in 1966 have been just a sort of constant disappointment ever since.
- [41:57]
A
Yeah.
- [41:57]
B
And they finally have this team that has a kind of glow around it.
- [42:00]
A
And were you upset when the US Lost to Belgium?
- [42:03]
B
Yeah, I was. I mean, I wasn't like. Like, like, like Charlie Brown kicking the dirt, but I was like, I was. It just felt very deflating. Yeah.
- [42:13]
A
So I was listening to Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman earlier on the gym, and they were talking about, like, did
- [42:20]
B
they give a shit? Chuck Klosterman's been, like, a skeptic of soccer for his entire life.
- [42:24]
A
Simmons seem. But they were talking about, like, what would it take for the US to be a World cup powerhouse? And it just seems to me that they were. Simmons actually eventually got to the. Where I was, but it took him a little while. Was like, it will happen if there's a market demand for it. Right. If enough American kids say, I love soccer so much that I would rather play it than basketball and football, the ones who have a chance to be
- [42:49]
B
great professional, the best athletes, then, you
- [42:52]
A
know, maybe over time and again, even then, it's not like you would then necessarily dominate, but you would be competitive or better than you are now. But until soccer has that kind of appeal, it won't. It doesn't have that appeal my whole life. Soccer is about to take over any day now, and it never has. It has grown in popularity, and that's fine. Right. Like, there's. To me, like, why is there a national imperative for us to be good in the World Cup? Like, I was rooting for us when we played, but, like, I would have traded, you know, a Knicks regular season win for five for a world, like, you know, at the end of the day, look, maybe there will be a Michael Jordan, a Tiger Woods, a Caitlin Clark in U.S. soccer.
- [43:35]
B
Well, that's what I. That's actually what I think is the difference. I think the team is very competitive, very athletic. The coaching was a lot better. They just don't have the singular world class player that really makes, you know, they don't have Erling Holland. Like, they don't have that guy where they take a pretty, pretty good team in and give it a shot at greatness.
- [43:53]
A
Yeah, and maybe that. But part of it is I assume that, you know, while obviously we have some really good players, you're still getting the very, very, very best athletes in the U.S. in other sports. And in theory they could choose to play soccer, but, but maybe some of it's going to be one of them does choose that and they are so talented and magnetic and appealing and everything that it inspires a generation in a way that it, it hasn't so far. But you know, if not, like, so what? Right, like, right, right.
- [44:29]
B
But there's, the point is there are all these soccer partisans who, who, you know, who believe in it more than you believe in the, in the Knicks. You know, like there is, there is a crowd and those people are walking around.
- [44:39]
A
Great. But what I would argue is there is no subsidial imperative, of course, to have a better soccer, you know, culture or program in the US or even invest any resources in a World Cup.
- [44:52]
B
No, there's plenty of resources. I don't think that's the, you know, like, those players are well compensated. They are global celebrities. Like, what else, you know, what else is lacking? You know, it's just there's some kind of slight cultural difference.
- [45:06]
A
So you're rooting for France and you predict they will win.
- [45:09]
B
It's hard to see how they won't. I mean, they are a powerhouse, but you know, it's just one game.
- [45:14]
A
Right. And they're all amazing at point this.
- [45:15]
B
Yeah. And so a couple of, you know,
- [45:17]
A
I mean, there is a Messi. Could certainly be. Didn't. Doesn't know what happened last time.
- [45:20]
B
Yeah, yeah, right. Yeah.
- [45:22]
A
No, he could, I mean, certainly could do it again.
- [45:24]
B
Yeah, he could. And, and, and Harry Kane could win it for England and you know, like, like the, the. Each team has, has a, has a, has a plausible. I mean, there's only four left. Of course.
- [45:32]
A
Yeah, yeah. Like, that's what makes sports fun brothers. All right, well, once. So next week. So we have an episode Thursday with David Wallace. Wallace. Which I'm excited about. But then next week we're off. Right?
- [45:43]
B
Well, we're actually, we're recording on Friday. We have a date. We are, yeah.
- [45:46]
A
Oh, all right.
- [45:47]
B
So. So we're not off next week. We might be off the week after that, but we'll, we'll keep you apprised. Schedule.
- [45:51]
A
Yeah, with baited breath, the world is waiting to see our schedule. See you. Firewall is recorded at my bookstore, PNT Wear, located at 180 Orchard street on the Lower east side of Manhattan. We'd love to hear from you with questions, feedbacks, or idea for a guest. Just email me at Bradley at Firewall Media or find me on LinkedIn. And to keep up with what's on my mind and my latest writing, please follow my new substack at bradleytust. Substack. Com. Thanks again for listening.