Podcast
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Hosted by ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke · EN
The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
35episodes
Episodes
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Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'
Dec 30, 2024Tap to summarizeThis is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Republican Bob Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct?This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →How The Polls Did In 2024
Nov 21, 202400:28:22Tap to summarizeElection Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls.Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years.But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term
Nov 18, 202400:40:36Tap to summarizeWe are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration.In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters
Nov 14, 202400:41:11Tap to summarizeLatino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing.Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes
Nov 11, 202400:40:35Tap to summarizeSince Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →Donald Trump Wins The Presidency
Nov 6, 202400:35:56Tap to summarizeIn this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night
Nov 5, 202400:43:41Tap to summarizeAt long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge
Nov 4, 202400:41:33Tap to summarizePolls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls.They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →Galen’s Cauldron Of Queries
Oct 31, 202400:40:40Tap to summarizeIt’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too.In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcribe →Will 2024 Be A Disputed Election?
Oct 30, 202400:36:34Tap to summarizeLooking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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