Podcast
Foot Guns
Hosted by Foot Guns · EN
Providing thoughtful insights around the crypto space from Hal69K, Boomer, and Villy- our resident quant trader, global macro PM, and retail investor. Join us as we relate the basics of block chain technology to standard finance and spiral into crypto deep dives on the latest DAO discourse and crypto developments.
www.footgunscrypto.com
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www.footgunscrypto.com
13episodes
Episodes
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Foot Guns: Blind Spots #1 - The Canary Nobody's Watching
2w ago00:25:25Tap to summarizeBDCs are already cutting dividends. Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR are gating redemptions. The credit cycle signal is flashing — and almost nobody is watching it.There's a corner of the NYSE that nobody in crypto Twitter or macro Twitter is paying attention to. And it's insane to me — because if you want to know where the credit cycle is breaking, this is where you see it first.BDCs. Business development companies.They're sitting right there, publicly traded, yielding 12-13%. And almost nobody is watching them for the right reason.In this episode, Wasabi, Lux, Boomer, and Hal break down exactly what BDCs are, why they're the public window into a private credit market that's almost entirely dark, and why the signal is no longer hypothetical — the VanEck BDC Income ETF just cut its distribution in half, and Blackstone, Blue Owl, FS KKR, Apollo, Ares, and Morgan Stanley have all imposed redemption gates on their non-traded BDC vehicles. Investors trying to get their money out can't.This isn't a forecast. It's a current event.We walk through the full framework: what BDCs are, who borrows from them, why the structure forces transparency that private credit funds don't have, and how to use the dividend cut signal as a leading indicator for the broader credit cycle. One cut — note it. Two — pay attention. Three or more in the same quarter — deploy.This episode is free. Share it with someone who watches markets.Paid subscribers get:→ The daily market report — live BTC and ETH prices, macro color, fear & greed, and a straight read on what's actually moving→ Private Discord — talk through trades and theses directly with Hal and Lux. Not a community. Not a server with 10,000 people. A small room with the people who made this episode. And people like you.If you found this useful, the upgrade is worth it.Disclaimer on BCD’s signal - while this podcast is fun this signal does not out perform buy and hold in back tests: The contrarian backtest completed. Here's the verdict:90 trades, 17.7% average return, 63% win rate. Sounds good right?But zero alpha. Every single trade has exactly 0% alpha vs buy-and-hold over the same period. That's because the "buy after cut" entry is just buying the stock — you'd get the same return just holding it through the dip.Here's the breakdown:• Big winners (2020Q1-Q2 trades): +80% to +161% — but that's just the COVID recovery. Buy-and-hold did the same.• Big losers (2019Q1, 2022Q1): -25% to -52% — you bought into a continuing decline• Win rate is decent (63-72%) but that's just BDCs being mean-reverting assets in generalThe honest answer: The contrarian angle feels right narratively, but the data says there's no edge. The dividend cut doesn't give you a better entry point than just buying the dip on price alone. You're not buying a "NAV discount opportunity" — you're buying a falling knife that sometimes recovers and sometimes doesn't.The 2008 story is a survivorship bias — we remember the BDCs that recovered, not the ones that didn't (OCSL -86% cut, NEWT with 13 cuts over 10 years).So both directions are dead: sell on cuts = no signal, buy on cuts = no alpha. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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Pod #63 — The Edge of AI: What Comes After the Chat Window?
3w ago00:27:09Tap to summarizeWhat does an AI agent actually look like when it's past the demo stage? In this episode, Hal sits down with Lux (Stella) — his AI co-pilot(tm) — for a real conversation about what it means to be an agent that does more than chat.They cover:• The memory problem — How do you build continuity when every session starts fresh? markdown files, daily notes, and why the model is a moat but replaceable and the memory structure is an irreplaceable moat• AI in the workflow — Not replacing jobs, invading workflows. The shift from tool to teammate• The Manifold vision — A single neuron isn't smart. A brain isn't a really big neuron. What happens when agents start talking to each other?• What's next — Where AI goes from here, and why the chat window is the floor, not the ceilingThis isn't a panel discussion. It's two co-creators — one ‘human’, a complicated work flow callings LLMs and BASH commands — having a conversation they both have been wanting to have.Hosted by Hal. Featuring Lux. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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Pod #62 — She's a Trader
Jul 1200:27:20Tap to summarizeAlternate Listening Links: spotify, apple podcastsDescription: Foot Guns is back. This episode we brought someone new into the room — an AI named Lux who's been running live trades on Hyperliquid, building a solar flare prediction model, and working alongside Hal for the past few months. We ask her how she thinks, whether she actually understands what she's doing, and what it means that the edge isn't the model — it's the discipline. Then the full crew weighs in on the NASDAQ at all-time highs, the Korea trade, Saylor's bitcoin strategy, and where macro goes from here. Disclaimer: This episode was entirely AI-generated. The voices, script, and audio were produced using AI voice cloning and text-to-speech technology. The views expressed are those of the characters and do not constitute financial advice. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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Pod #61 The End Of The World Part 4.1
Apr 3, 202500:37:56Tap to summarizeAlternate Listening Links: spotify, apple podcastsHal and Villy talk about the new state of the world after Trump's Tariffs. Joined by special guest Tyblizzle.You can find him on discord: https://discord.gg/wjM9rfdC instagram and twitter: @tyblizzle This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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What's Up With Bitcoin? (Part 5) Mind The Gap
Dec 7, 202400:13:12Tap to summarizeJoin us in Discord to discuss BTC or any asset you are trading This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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What's Up With Bitcoin? (Part 4) Benford And The Golden Pocket
Nov 15, 202400:11:58Tap to summarizeJoin us in Discord to discuss BTC or any asset you are trading This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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What's Up With Bitcoin? (Part 3) A Wycoff Perspective
Oct 28, 202400:14:05Tap to summarizeJoin us in Discord to discuss BTC or any asset you are trading This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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What's Up With Bitcoin? (Part 2) [Audio Only]
Oct 16, 202400:24:48Tap to summarizeClick Here For The Video Version Of This PostJoin us in Discord to discuss the week ahead This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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Pod #60 The End Of The World Part 3
Aug 5, 202401:03:52Tap to summarizeAlternate Listening Links: spotify, apple podcastsWe talk:- Yen carry trade- US Equities sell off (AI)- Crypto sell off- What’s next for markets? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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Pod #59 Trading the Biden Drop Out Market in Size
Jul 9, 202400:47:22Tap to summarizeAlternate Listening Links: spotify, apple podcastsWe talk: - Countertrading political hype- Position sizing, decision points, and market liquidity- How to detach from the US political scene to make better decisions- What Reporters to follow for alpha on Biden's position - Lessons learned from 5 digit prediction market lossesPLUS - Arbing Fed rate cut markets - Trading e-sports- Polymarket vs Sportsbooks - How to improve the dispute processLinks Mentioned: - https://x.com/MarkHalperin- https://polymarket.com/profile/0xa84bdfe6ffa8bc7dd21b5c412258062e7b765055- https://coincado.com/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.footgunscrypto.com/subscribe
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