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7 Fantasy Draft ADPs That Make No Sense to Alfredo Brown || Fantasy Football 2025
00:32:14
In Episode 245 of the Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, Dave Kluge and Alfredo Brown discuss Alfredo's rankings and the players he is most likely to be wrong about. Send your questions to fantasyshow@footballguys.com 🎥. SUBSCRIBE to the...
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- [00:00]
Alfredo Brown
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- [00:30]
Dave
Anonymous changes each week.
- [00:31]
Alfredo Brown
It defies genres and expectations. For example, our most recent episode, I talked to a woman who survived a.
- [00:38]
Dave
Murder attempt by her own son.
- [00:40]
Alfredo Brown
But just the week before that, we just talked the whole time about Star Trek.
- [00:43]
Dave
We've had other recent episodes about sexting.
- [00:46]
Alfredo Brown
In languages that are not your first.
- [00:48]
Dave
Language or what it's like to get weight loss surgery.
- [00:51]
Alfredo Brown
It's unpredictable, it's real, it's honest, it's raw. Get Beautiful Anonymous Wherever you listen to.
- [00:57]
Dave
Podcasts, I like can't even stand up. Have you ever used the Nautilus glute drive machine? Bro, my cheeks are on fire. They feel like, like slow cooked pork right now ready to fall off the bone. It's, it's like a thrust, but instead of a barbell, it's this like padded belt that you like clip around your waist and then you basically just, you're just humping the air with, with, with a bunch of.
- [01:39]
Alfredo Brown
I've absolutely done this before, but just starting a conversation with. Well, I had to stand up to.
- [01:46]
Dave
Move my lights and every time I stand up I'm reminded what I did to my cheeks the other day.
- [01:51]
Alfredo Brown
To your cheeks? Please stop.
- [01:55]
Dave
Yeah. Oh, I gotta, gotta keep it plump. Keep it tight.
- [02:01]
Alfredo Brown
Nope, don't want that.
- [02:03]
Dave
The fun thing is I have control over the cold open, so I, I get to keep what I want. As far. So we talk about slow roasted plump cheeks on today's Cold open.
- [02:12]
Alfredo Brown
I could just stop talking.
- [02:15]
Dave
Just ice.
- [02:17]
Alfredo Brown
Can't take away my rights as an American. I'm just gonna stop talking. I have the right to remain silent. I've watched Law and Order svu.
- [02:26]
Dave
I'll read you your Miranda rights before I start talking about my glute workouts next time.
- [02:44]
Alfredo Brown
I'm Alfredo Brown and I'm an idiot. Today we are going to take a look at my rankings compared to average draft position and Dave is going to Tell me where I'm wrong, why I'm wrong. And you know what? The consensus, all of you at home, watching, listening, making your own rankings, prepping for your draft, you can tell me why I'm wrong, too. Let us know down in the comments. Dave, I'll toss this over to you, man, because this is basically just the football guys roast at Alfredo Brown's rankings.
- [03:14]
Dave
And, you know, it's a fun thing to do. We just did this a couple days ago with my rankings, and now we're going to pick apart yours. And Alfredo. Terry McLaurin finally has a quarterback, had the best fantasy finish of his career last year. And you, the idiot you are, are fading him. Talk to me about why you're doing that.
- [03:30]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, first of all, you don't have to say, to say to people, it was a couple days. I'm still wearing the same hoodie. We, we're recording these in the same day. But, you know, we want to.
- [03:40]
Dave
The illusion of us more than just a Friday afternoon. Yes.
- [03:45]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, we're recording these ahead of time. So if anything changes, just, you know, it's. We're not that stupid. Just kind of stupid. But yeah, man, Terry McLaurin, I. I just don't get it. With the average draft position of wide receiver 16, I'm not like obnoxiously low on him, but I've got him at wide receiver 21. Looking back at last year, it's kind of hard not to look at it as an outlier season. He's had just one top 20 finish in his career before this, and pretty much the receptions, the yards were all essentially the same as what we've seen throughout his career. But we get this massive jump up to 13 touchdowns, puts on second in the league. The team then goes and they add Deebo Samuel to the mix, and we, we might actually see some Ben Senate this upcoming year. Like, not sure what's going on there, but this is a team where they bring in another wide receiver. You have Terry McLaurin, who's never really quite done this on a conversation, like, on a consistent basis. I get it. This is the best quarterback he's had in his career. And the quarterback is finally going to be consistent, but also the offensive coordinator is going to be consistent, Cliff Kingsbury. This is something that we see with him, like, throughout his career, where he's really good with rookies in year one, and then he kind of just keeps doing the same thing over and over and over. And that's what we saw with Kyler Murray. The offense got Figured out. And I'm not saying that I, I'm expecting the offense to get figured out in Washington, but, but I'm leaving that as a possibility in the range of outcomes that could happen here. I just don't feel comfortable drafting Terry McLaurin in round three to be my, my second or first best wide receiver in a build for my fantasy football team.
- [05:18]
Dave
Yeah, you know, we can kind of lift the veil of the show now. I'm, I'm actually in agreement with you on this one. I've got him one spot higher than you do. I've got him as my wide receiver 20. But really, I mean, what Terry McClure did last year wasn't like any different than what he's done the rest of his career. Like almost identical numbers. The difference is the touchdowns. You know, you look at the touch touchdowns over the years and they just haven't been there. Four touchdowns, five touchdowns, five touchdowns, four touchdowns. And then last year, 13 touchdowns. So I understand, like a better offensive environment is going to make all of the players better here and more scoring opportunities. But yeah, I'm kind of with you. You know, I don't want to call you too much of a dumb dumb for this take because I am also putting a fade on Terry McLaurin compared to the consensus. So Alfredo, let's switch gears a little bit and talk about a player that you like a little bit more.
- [06:02]
Alfredo Brown
Right.
- [06:03]
Dave
Right now, being drafted as the wide receiver 18 on ADP, you have Devonte Adams as your wide receiver 14, probably because he is with the wide receiver kingmaker Matthew Stafford. But I want to hear your more in depth thoughts on why you are still holding the torch for old man devonte Adams.
- [06:20]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, man, that, that's exactly it. He's there with the kingmaker. It's not just Matthew Stafford, it's Sean McVeigh who we've seen. He can handle this. His offense supports Matthew Stafford, supports two guys together, Cooper cup and Puka Nakua, like this was. This is not something that we're saying. I wonder if the offense can really do it. No, like the Rams offense can handle this. On top of that, we know devonte Adams is still good. This is going to be the best quarterback that he's played with in the last three seasons. Yes, I'm including Aaron Rodgers, a guy that he had a lot of familiarity with. But you go back to his time in Las Vegas with the Raiders. You look at last year's season with the jets where I mean, he was still splitting targets with Garrett Wilson in a Bad jets offense and still finished top 14. So yeah, now you can have him splitting targets with Puka Nakua, where honestly, I think we're all assuming that Puka Nuku is going to lead the Rams in targets, but there's a good chance that he doesn't. And in this range of outcomes along the spectrum of points scored and targets that are, that are being given out to these wide receivers, devontae Adams might just lead the team in targets. On top of that, Puka Nukua. And I don't like to lean into this because of injury stuff, but like he's missed plenty of games, he's missed time. And Devonte Adams, even at his age, he's still looking good out there, man. He's still showing up for every single game and he's actually giving his all. Like if you go back and just watch like some of. Not even all, just some of the games, he's getting open consistently and over the past three years. Devonte Adams, wide receiver 14, wide receiver 11, wide receiver 3. Right. I've got him at wide receiver 14 in my rankings, which I think should be his floor this year. I know that's, that's going against the grain a little bit. It's an older wide receiver, but the guy's been top five in targets per route run over the last two seasons. He's earning targets. This is not something that's going away. He's one of the best man beaters amongst wide receivers in the NFL. So wide receiver 18. Average draft position I think is just a little too low for a guy that still has top 10 upside.
- [08:10]
Dave
Yeah, you know, I'm not taking a huge stance here, but like I said, His ADP is wide receiver 18. You've got him at wide receiver 14. I am just Switzerland in this one, sitting here at wide receiver 16. So I like him a little bit more than consensus. Not quite as much as you, but for a lot of the same reasons you said. I mean it's a great offense. I don't think he's lost a step. Like when you watch devonte Adams out there, he doesn't look like he's moving like a 33 year old. Like he still has the same tool bag that he was deploying at 27 years old. Still can get in and out of his break so quickly. Like you said, just one of the best man beaters out there. So yeah, I mean it's, it's tough knowing that he's getting up there in age and Pukinakua is going to carry A big chunk of the lion's share. But I mean, realistically, what are we probably expecting like 65, maybe even 70% of the targets in this offense are just going to those two guys?
- [08:57]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, yeah. There's, there's. I don't think there's going to be outside of maybe the Miami Dolphins, I don't think there's going to be as predictable of a target funnel offense in the entire NFL.
- [09:09]
Dave
Now in the wake of this trade, you know, not trade, signing with them, going out and getting Devonte Adams, the Los Angeles Rams obviously let Cooper cup walk and he has just tumbled down fantasy rankings right now. Consensus ranking is wide receiver 43. I see you've got him at wide receiver 50 even lower than where he has already fallen. So talk to me a little bit about why you think the market just hasn't adjusted enough on Cooper Cup. A guy who just four years ago had the triple crown and was going as the 101 in drafts, now you're pushing him all the way out to wide receiver 50 in your rankings.
- [09:42]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, it's just that over the last couple years he hasn't been that same guy. Like it's a big difference from the. The Sean McVeigh is already saying Devonte Adams is an upgrade over what they had with Cooper Cup. Like he is in the media saying we have upgraded the wide receiver position by getting Devonte Adams. So that's why, like I'll view a guy like Devonte Adams so different from how I'm viewing Cooper Cup. And the big thing too here is with Cooper cup, yes, it's another old wide receiver that I'm talking about, but 32 years old, like that's, that's a big difference than what we're talking about with some of these other guys that are maybe hitting 30 cup last year it was really bad over those final five games, Dave. If you look at the numbers, it's averaging two and a half receptions per game, four and a half targets per game. He simply could not get open. And that was in a very good offense with the Los Angeles Rams. He was wide receiver 77 in fantasy points per game at that time. So now we throw him into the Seattle Seahawks offense where he's likely going to be stuck as the slot receiver. And I say stuck quite literally because they're going to be moving Jackson, Smith and Jigba all around that offense into the X, into the Z. The, the Seahawks, they lose DK Metcalf, they lose Tyler Lockett and now there's going to be A lot of targets for Jackson, Smith, Jigba. They also go and draft Elijah Arroyo. They're going to be committing heavier to the run game with Clint Kubiak. I mean there's just a lot that's going on here where I look at Cooper cup and I say, man, it's even in an offense where there's not too much else in terms of weaponry, I still don't even see him as a top one or two target on this team, which is kind of crazy to say. Like I actually think it's going to be Jackson, Smith and Jigba and then a heavy dose of the running backs catching passes and the tight ends catching passes. And Cooper cup, man, if he can, if he can get open, maybe we're seeing a different guy. Like I hate to be so pessimistic about a player but Dave, I'm looking at my rankings. The reason I've got him at wide receiver 50, I mean just hear the other guys that have ahead of him. Darnell Mooney, Matthew Golden, A Mecca, Ibuka Khalil, Shakir, Brandon Ayuk, Jordan Addison, like these are guys that I think just simply have higher ceilings than Cooper cup does at this point.
- [11:46]
Dave
You'll never guess where I have Cooper cup ranked alfredo. Wide receiver 112, wide receiver 50. I mean we have, we talk so much football in the off season that we just become this conglomerate where we're making the same rankings. But I'm completely with you man. And you like you talk about those last few weeks where you saw that he was just, he was cooked man. Like he did not look like Cooper Cup. He had one game where he kind of got bailed out with a touchdown against Buffalo. But outside of that, I mean he wasn't hitting your lineup in any of those weeks. If you had him in best ball he was worthless. If you put him in your lineup, he was a huge loss for you. So completely in agreement with you there and yeah, same thing. Looking at my rankings, the guys I have ahead of him, probably a lot of the same names. Brandon iu, Khalil Shakir, Juwan Jennings, Darnell Mooney, Emeka Ibuka, Matthew Golden, Jaden Reed. I can't imagine what is propping his ADP up where it is because telling me that every drafter out here is preferring Cooper cup ahead of all Those guys, a 32 year old Cooper cup who looks completely washed out, a bad offense, I just cannot get there. So I want to make fun of you for this take but I, I just can't because I Agree with you on it.
- [12:50]
Alfredo Brown
Come on, man. This is supposed to be the I'm stupid episode.
- [12:53]
Dave
I know. Let's see about this next one that we got. This is a guy that you like a little bit more than the consensus. People are sick of Dalton Kincaid, you know, huge rookie season breakout. We got really excited for year two and in year two just didn't really happen. He wasn't connecting with Josh Allen. He had a terrible drop at the end of the season that, that, that, that ended the Buffalo Bills playoff run. But you don't care. You're still putting him inside your top 12 saying that he is a starting tight end in your fantasy football league. Tell me why.
- [13:19]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, why not, man? Like this is an offense that I still don't think has truly reached the pinnacle of what it's supposed to be. Like this was a team that the wide receiver targets, or excuse me, just the receiving targets, were led by Khalil Shakir, who you and I both like a lot. I've loved Khalil Scheer since coming out of Boise State, but I don't think he should be your leading receiver going into the season. And right now, Dalton Kincaid, a guy who they've put a first round NFL draft capital into, has the opportunity to lead the team or at least be second in targets. And that's where he was prior to getting hurt. He was tight end 10 in fantasy football prior to getting hurt. And then over those final weeks trying to get back into everything, he just couldn't get his rhythm back. And this was a team that, because they didn't have the pass catchers, Dalton Kincaid was in and out of games. Keon Coleman really wasn't developing. They had to commit a bit more to the run and they kind of did not have an identity over those final few weeks of the season. And it really became a James Cook offense, which I, I don't know that's very sustainable either. So, yeah, Dalton Kincaid, you look around and it's kind of, I'm playing the same game again with the tight ends as I look around at the other guys in the rankings and it's like Jake Ferguson, I like him, but he's probably not going to be number two on his team in targets. Evan Ingram probably will be number two on his team in targets. Colston Loveland, probably not number two. Tyler Warren, probably not number two. Dallas Goddard, probably not number two. So, okay, the guy to me that has the upside is the one who can be number one or two on his team in targets. He's got the reigning MVP and Josh Allen as his quarterback. And we've seen that in that sample size, he can be a top 10 tight end. So for me, if he's healthy and we get some touchdown variants, that can actually push him into being a top six or seven tight end. Fantasy football.
- [15:00]
Dave
Well, we finally have a big disagreement here, Alfredo. You've got Dalton Kincaid as your tight end 11. I've got him as my tight end 12. So ahead of me. What are you thinking?
- [15:10]
Alfredo Brown
Damn it, man. I thought you were gonna give me something good.
- [15:13]
Dave
No. I do want to pick this one apart a little bit, though, because I'm curious. I've got ahead of Dalton Kincaid. Do you have Evan Ingram ahead of him?
- [15:18]
Alfredo Brown
I do. I have him one spot. I have Ingram at Titan 10.
- [15:21]
Dave
Tyler Warren.
- [15:23]
Alfredo Brown
Tyler Warren. I have him lower. I have Tyler Warren at tight end 14.
- [15:26]
Dave
So I think that's the only difference for me is that I prefer Tyler Warren to Dalton Kincaid. Okay, maybe I'm an idiot for taking the cheese on this one. You know, we're both idiots, as we already addressed at the top of the show, but I think that's really it for me. You know, I prefer Tyler Warren.
- [15:40]
Alfredo Brown
The.
- [15:40]
Dave
The. The. The young guy who is going to be fed a lot of targets, get the steady drum beat. But everything that I'm saying about Tyler Warren, you could also say about Dalton Kincaid, a young guy, good offense. And I think the difference is that Bill's offense is much better than the Colts offense. So I really feel like once you get past the first few tight ends, you're kind of splitting hairs here. But it is crazy to me that his consensus right now at tight end 15, I think that's a. A nice bargain, and I've been taking advantage of that. So let's go back to a player that you don't like quite as much. Aaron Jones right now getting drafted as the RB 29 overall. I'm sorry, the RB 25 overall. You've got him as the RB 29. And you're looking at that point in the draft. You know, there's a mix of quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers. So you basically got Aaron Jones around later than where the consensus is drafting him. Telling me that in your drafts, you probably aren't drafted much of any Aaron Jones this year.
- [16:29]
Alfredo Brown
No, I'm really not. I mean, when you see a team go out of their way to add another running back and then call that running back the 1B, that's worrisome. And so it's like when you look at a Lot of these other, other running backs in the league, if their team went out and drafted a player on day two or drafted a player earlier, signed a player in free agency, you're not really as excited about them. Like, I think that Aaron Jones is kind of in that same mix as guys like Joe Mixon and some of these other older running backs that are sort of tumbling down the rankings because other players have been added. There's, there, there's an obvious need for that team to go out and get another running back. And man, Aaron Jones, he, he's turning 30, or excuse me, he is 30 already. He played a full season last year for just the second time in his career and he was seventh in touches in the NFL. It was a career high 306 touches. For Aaron Jones, a guy who, prior to last year we were saying, man, he's got injury issues. The packers didn't even want to keep him. So what does he do? He signs the Vikings and gets way more touches than he's ever had. But he was still just the running back, 19 in fantasy points per game. So the volume was there, the efficiency really wasn't. And that was with that offense over performing. I, I know, like there should be hope that JJ McCarthy can lead this offense and do a good job. I, I don't know. I, like, I, I wish I could give real analysis with JJ McCarthy here. We have such a small sample size of him coming out of college and everything that he did coming out of college was in a run heavy offensive attack at Michigan. I, I don't quite know what we're going to see here. I would like to think that I have a lot of faith in Kevin o', Connell, but I don't know that I can trust this offense and, or, excuse me, trust Aaron Jones to lead this offense. If he misses any time, I think Jordan Mason jumps into a big opportunity and this could become a 50, 50 split or even Jordan Mason's backfield, especially with the way the efficiency has dipped. So, yeah, I don't love Aaron Jones where he's getting drafted. And Dave, just to give you kind of that context of where I have him in rankings, I've got Aaron Jones next to guys like Tony Pollard, Travis Etn, Brian Robinson Jr. Tyrone Tracy, Quinshawn, Judkins. That's where I see Aaron Jones.
- [18:37]
Dave
Yeah. And I mean what I see when I look at my area, because I am close to the consensus. I mean, I've got Aaron Jones as my RB25, but he's in that same cluster with Joe Mixon, James Connor, David Montgomery, Travis etn, Tyrone Tracy, Rashad White, and I'll sprinkle in some of those guys occasionally. But that is, in my opinion, that is, that's the running back dead zone this year. This is guys that are, these are guys that are old guys who don't have the best efficiency. You know, guys that have, have big red flags on them. So I can really nitpick where I have Aaron Jones. I mean, I might have him at RB25, but moving him down to RB29, basically flopping him and Travis Etienne doesn't really change all my rankings that much. At the end of the day, that whole area of running backs is one that I'm just trying to avoid at that point in the draft. That's what I'm looking at, guys like Darnell Mooney and a Mecca Buka and Josh Downs that have much higher ceilings. I might even start dipping into some of the quarterbacks there, you know, looking at Justin Fields or some of the tight ends. Mark Andrews is going in that same area of the draft. So it's not even that like I, I dislike Aaron Jones specifically. It's that whole cluster of running backs is just kind of off my radar and where I'm typically looking at other positions at that point in the draft. Holy segue. We just did this on accident. Alfredo, Josh Downs, I see that you are a little bit ahead of consensus wide receiver 47 in consensus rankings and you are at wide receiver 40, well ahead of consensus. We've talked about Josh Downs a bit on this show, dynasty wise. I do have some concerns, but I think looking at how this offense is going to run, you can project a lot of volume going Josh Downs's way. So talk to me about that a little bit.
- [20:12]
Alfredo Brown
And that's like to go back to when we were talking about the tight ends with Dalton Kincaid and then you mentioned Tyler Warren. This is a big reason why I don't have Tyler Warren higher is because Josh Downs, I think is going to continue to be just the target vacuum for this offense out of the slot. Like that is exclusively where he's going to play with other guys like Michael Pittman, Adonai, Mitchell, Alec Pierce, all being on the outside. Just like to, to give that small tangent is I think with Tyler Warren we try to assume that he's going to get used the same way as Penn State. Whereas like, man, if Anthony Richardson is there, I don't know that Tyler Warren's getting many goal line carries. And same thing with Jonathan, Jonathan Taylor, I Almost said Jonathan Stewart. But really what I see being the.
- [20:49]
Dave
Second time in the last week that you've almost slipped into Jonathan Stewart. I don't know where.
- [20:53]
Alfredo Brown
I don't know why he's on my brain, man.
- [20:55]
Dave
You grind in like 2006 film right now, this week. I don't know what's going on.
- [20:59]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, lots of like, lots of like 2002 Oregon college film. Yeah, it's. It's been a long day, dude. Yeah. With Josh Downs, man.
- [21:10]
Dave
Wednesday.
- [21:12]
Alfredo Brown
What a week with Josh Downs, man, it's just like he's going to be the guy that is. That has already been the target hog. We. I can see that continuing here. He was a wide receiver, 31 in PPR points per game last year. You get Joe when Joe Flacco was out there and like Joe Flacco was a world beater when he was out there playing starting quarterback for the Colts. Josh downs is at 15 and a half fantasy points per game. That would have been a top 70. Sorry, that would have been wide receiver 17 top 20 in fantasy. So you bring in a guy like Daniel Jones, who I know we don't really love for real football, but in terms of fantasy, he does target the slot receiver a bunch. He did that with Wanda Robinson. He did that with where he was hyper targeting Malik neighbors to start the season last year. I mean we've seen that he can at least manage to let other players be fantasy relevant now even with Anthony Richardson out there, Josh Downs was still a relevant fantasy player. So the Colts O line is a lot worse. And one of the things you know when we see is like when Anthony Richardson gets pressured, he's going to try to run. When Daniel Jones gets pressured, however, he throws to the slot. And that was the thing that, that really stood out to me. Josh Downs, we know he's a slot receiver six most routes from the slot, fourth the NFL and yards from the slot. He's. He's always open. Our one of our friends, Matt Harmon, former football guy, he's got a glowing report on Josh Downs in his reception. Perception of a guy that's just consistently getting open. This is something that I loved from his college film coming out and why I had him ranked pretty highly coming out of unc. Josh Downs, man. I, I once again to give the context is I'm looking around and Khalil Shakir is a guy I have behind him who I think is, is pretty much the same guy, Ameka Igbuka, who's got two other players ahead of him in the depth Chart. But he'll be out there, you know, potentially as a third wide receiver or fourth target behind one of the running backs, Matthew Golden. Like, these are all guys that I keep behind Josh Downs. I have him in the same area though as Jaden Reed, Jacoby Myers, Steph Diggs, Jerry Judy, all these guys that I think have high potential upside, but I'm just not quite ready to put them in the wide receiver 3 range. But Josh Downs being nearly a wide receiver 5 in ADP is like that to me. Like, that's just weird.
- [23:25]
Dave
Yeah. And I'm looking, you know, in the the 10 games we saw from Daniel Jones last year, Wendell Robinson was pacing for 143 targets on the season. As you famously said a few weeks ago, Daniel Jones, man, he loves the slot. And if that's where Josh Giants is going to be playing out of, he's going to get a lot of balls. So I am completely with you on that one there. Again, like, like we, we're just too close and a lot of our opinions, I think like we need to show like the players that we disagree on rather than disagreeing against the consensus. Because I think next episode and even this, like, I'm looking at the next player you have right now. As you were talking, I wanted to like prep look at this next player and I was like, maybe this is the guy we are in lockstep, man. Same exact rankings on this one. Ramadre Stevenson, ADP right now of wide receiver 39. You've got him as your wide receiver 44. Talk to why you're a little bit lower on Ramadre Stevenson.
- [24:17]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, yeah. Ramondre Steven Stevenson is my running back 44 right now. Like, I just don't see him as a guy that I want to have as my RB3. Like, if I have when I'm looking at an RB3 on my fantasy roster, it should be someone that I could potentially start in a flex spot and I don't want to have to start Ramandre Stevenson in a flex spot in my lineup. With the Patriots spending a nearly first round pick on Trivion Henderson. That tells me everything I need to know about what they think about Ramandre Stevenson in a backfield that was already kind of crowded with Antonio Gibson in a very deep running back class where they could have picked up anyone. Rounds later, Randre Stevenson, the guy that has had fumbling issues. And by the way, the Patriots had a million other needs they could have gone with here in the NFL draft. And with their second pick, they decide to go with A running back and Trevan Henderson, like that's, that's a whole nother story. Like that's a whole nother episode for us to do with these rookies. Because he's one of these guys that I think is just going to absolutely hit the ground running, no pun intended, but like actually be a big, big presence on passing downs. He's a great pass blocker, he's a good receiver out of the backfield and he's just going to give the Patriots explosive plays. We did not get that anymore from Ramandre Stevenson. Like I mentioned, they still have Antonio Gibson there. Josh McDaniels is a two running back system guy. So we're going to get a heavy dose of Trevion Henderson, we're going to get some Ramandre Stevenson, we're going to get some Antonio Gibson. We're going to be getting a lot of these different guys, which is also like, I'm, I'm sort of cooling off on Trevion Henderson. I don't know that I'm in love with any of the Patriots running backs right now, but if I was going to lean towards someone, it's going to be the guy that has the, the breakaway speed and the big playability and the passing down ability as well. One of the things, Dave, you and I, we both love the Coach Speak Index Twitter account and this was a quote from Mike Vrabel talking about Ramandre Stevenson where he says he's going to be a large part of what we do. Sure, Jan. Mike Vrabel has a 40 reliability rating on depth chart and a 65 reliability rating on usage workload for Coach Speak. So yeah, him saying that is almost the guarantee that Andre Stevenson's probably not going to be a big deal here. I mean, no, no. Coach comes out and says, yeah, that guy that's on our roster, the number two running back, we're not going to use him much. They don't do that. They're either talking up every single guy on the roster or saying that a young guy needs to hurry up and mature and get better and learn things. That's it. It. That's all the quotes that we're going to get from these coaches. So the fact that all he said is he's going to be a large part of what we do and it's not even a reliable quote. I don't want to hang my hat on that too much, but it's just, it's a phenomenal source that we have here with the Coach Speak Index. And this was the thing that pre show I laughed at something when I was looking at Ramandra Stevenson numbers and you're like what is it? And I was like oh I'll share it with you on the show. Hermander Stevenson running back 29 in fantasy points per game last season Ramondre Stevenson Running back 29 in points per game in 2023 we know what he is and by the way that was with tons of opportunity. Now we're taking away and scaling back some of that opportunity and he's likely not going to be out there as much on passing downs. And that was a big thing for him when he was getting these top 12 running back games. Even top 20 running back games. He was getting three, four, five receptions in a game. I'm not seeing that happening this year with Trevion Henderson on the field.
- [27:35]
Dave
Yeah, completely with you on this one and this has been a big agreement episode with with the two of us. But you talk about that RB 29 on a per game basis last year and he was 21st in opportunity share and that's where that came from. It was just volume induced production. When you look at his efficiency though, he was 49th in yards per carry. He was 53rd in yards per touch. EPA expected points added 140th among running backs. I mean he was a liability when he was on the field last year. And yeah them going out and spending an early day too big on Trayvon Henderson, a pick which ran reportedly the Bears were trying to trade up for and the Patriots said no, like we we've got the guy that we want here in Trayvon Henderson. That speaks volumes to me. And then also the big change like Alex Van Pelt. What we saw last year and what we saw during his time in Cleveland is that he will lean on one running back that has never been the Josh McDaniels way. And even if you look back at what Mike Rabel did in Tennessee, yeah of course we remember the Derrick Henry years. What we don't remember is the first year Mike Rabel was the head coach in Tennessee and he gave Dion Lewis as many touches as Derrick Henry. So it is in his dn he is just pumped full of Belichickian blood and he is going to want to have a split backfield here as well. So yeah we're going to see a lot of trivia on Henderson. But even worse than Trayveon Henderson getting touches is Trayvon Henderson is going to get the high value touches. And then you look at what Drake may does as a rusher even if There was like a touchdown out for Ramandre Stevenson. Drake May is going to take the top off of that. So seating passing down work to Travion Henderson, seating some of the goal line work to Drake May. I mean, I just don't see an out here where Ramadre Stevenson and lands in any sort of role that you ever feel good putting him in your RB3 or your Flex spot. I mean, it's just going to be a low ceiling player that you are just like praying can fall into the end zone and give you 8.5 points.
- [29:22]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, like to me, even if, let's say Treveon Henderson for any reason is not able to play football, Randre Stevenson is still going to be splitting time with Antonio Gibson. Like it's still going to be an inefficient runner in a two headed backfield. Potentially three. Like there's already camp reports, but Len Larson being the next guy in there as well. Yeah, I know, I know. But like I look around the rankings and like where I have Ramandre Stevenson is in the same spot that I have guys like Trey Benson, Ray Davis, Isaac Grindo. And honestly, I think those guys have more upside because they would be just complete workhorse backs at that point. So yeah, I call me crazy.
- [30:00]
Dave
Let's do a heat check on this one because I have one guy that I'm way ahead of consensus that I actually had ahead of Ramadre Stevenson. And this is going to sound insane to some people. I have Will Shipley ahead of Ramadre Stevenson in my rankings and I know there's almost no projectable volume there, but if everybody in the world is expecting Saquon Barkley to just break down this year because of last year's workload, give me Will Shipley, a guy who has contingent upside that I don't think any circumstances could ever push Ramadre Stevenson into.
- [30:26]
Alfredo Brown
Where do you, where do you have him?
- [30:28]
Dave
I have Will Shipley at RB43 and Ramadre Stevenson at RB44.
- [30:33]
Alfredo Brown
Oh, you're sick. That's who you should have been talking about on your episode. Good lord, David.
- [30:39]
Dave
I, I, I, I stray pretty far from the consensus, you know, I especially the deeper down that we get, I mean, there are players that I'll have 40, 50 spots ahead of the consensus because I think they're just flat out wrong on and it's weird to me that I see Ray Davis and Tyler Algier and Marshawn Lloyd and these guys all kind of clumped together and then the consensus has just said, yeah, Will Shipley Goes four rounds after those guys, and I'm like, oh, well, Will Shipley should be right there with the rest of them.
- [31:05]
Alfredo Brown
I mean, dude, I can. I can see it. I can see the vision. I can see the vision here. Like, there's. There's guys that I feel the same way about, too, where, like, I keep looking at Jade in blue, and I want to move him up my rankings even further. I've got him at running back 41.
- [31:17]
Dave
Today's reports that he is lazy.
- [31:20]
Alfredo Brown
Oh, God. Oh, God.
- [31:22]
Dave
Peak off season, man. Yeah, there we go.
- [31:25]
Alfredo Brown
Okay, I'm just gonna move him down. Never mind.
- [31:27]
Dave
Borderline lazy was the exact quote.
- [31:30]
Alfredo Brown
Got it. Running back 80 in my rankings now I'll move them. Well, this was fun. Yeah.
- [31:36]
Dave
I mean, at that point in the draft, just back to it real quickly. Like, I don't care about any projectable volume. And, like, sure, maybe Ramadre Stevenson projects for six and a half points a game, and Will Shipley projects for none, but it's contingent upside. That's what I care about at that point. And there just isn't even the upside case for Madre Stevenson. So with you too much agreement on this show, we need to do a show where you and I, like, argue. I don't know. Next episode, next week, bears and dolphins. Maybe that'll get the. The blood pumping in this, because we are just.
- [32:07]
Alfredo Brown
Who wins in a fight? A bear or a dolphin?
- [32:09]
Dave
There you go. Yeah. 100 men or. Or a gorilla.
- [32:14]
Alfredo Brown
Yeah.
- [32:15]
Dave
Easier. 100 dolphins or 100 bears? What are you digging?
- [32:18]
Alfredo Brown
Oh, God. If I'm on land, I'll take the dolphins. All right, this is where the show has gone.
- [32:26]
Dave
We gotta get to the weekend.
- [32:27]
Alfredo Brown
We promised you. We promised you. We said it from the beginning. I'm Alfredo Brown, and I'm stupid. And we finished with some of the absolute dumbest content we have ever done.
- [32:39]
Dave
I can't wait for training camp to start, man. Like, real news, we need something. We're stretching it thin this time of year.
- [32:45]
Alfredo Brown
This is just plain stupid. But, yeah, everybody, we love you guys. Thank you so much for watching or listening all the way through. For myself, for Dave. We'll see you next time. Adios. Marketing is hard, but I'll tell you a little secret. It doesn't have to be. Let me point something out. You're listening to a podcast right now, and it's great. You love the host. You seek it out and download it. You listen to it while driving, working out, cooking, even going to the bathroom. Podcasts are a pretty close companion. And this is a podcast ad. Did I get your attention? You can reach great listeners like yourself with podcast advertising from Libsyn Ads. Choose from hundreds of top podcasts offering host endorsements or run a pre produced ad like this one, one across thousands of shows. To reach your target audience in their favorite podcasts with Libsyn Ads, go to Libsyn ads.com that's L I B S Y N ads.com today.