Podcast Summary: 7 Fantasy Draft ADPs That Make No Sense to Alfredo Brown

Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Hosts: Alfredo Brown & Dave Kluge
Date: July 24, 2025

Overview

This episode features Alfredo Brown and Dave Kluge dissecting seven 2025 fantasy football draft ADPs (Average Draft Positions) that, in Alfredo's words, “make no sense.” The episode blends keen statistical analysis with classic Footballguys humor, as Dave roasts Alfredo's rankings against consensus while the duo disagree (and mostly agree) on big names whose ADPs look off. The conversation covers major receiver shakeups, aging running backs, target hogs, and pivotal rookies, providing actionable insight for fantasy drafters.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Terry McLaurin – Fade at WR16 ADP

• [03:45] Alfredo's Take:
  • McLaurin's WR16 ADP is too optimistic; Alfredo ranks him at WR21.
  • 2024’s 13 TDs appear fluky; prior seasons had 4–5 TDs consistently.
  • Deebo Samuel’s addition, possible emergent Ben Sinnott, and the “Cliff Kingsbury Fade Effect” (defenses catching up with play-callers) suggest risk.
  • Quote [04:23]:
    “I just don’t feel comfortable drafting Terry McLaurin in round three to be my second or first best wide receiver for my fantasy football team.” — Alfredo
• [05:18] Dave's Response:
  • Agrees with Alfredo (“I’ve got him as my WR20.”).
  • Sees TD jump as unsustainable; only the improved QB situation is a plus.

2. Davante Adams – Still an Alpha, WR18 ADP Too Low

• [06:02] Alfredo's Take:
  • Has Adams at WR14 (vs ADP WR18); sees top-10 upside with Stafford, McVay, and track record of earning targets.
  • Rams’ offense can support two high-end WRs (like Cup/Nakua previously).
  • Adams’ target-earning per route remains elite; has shown durability.
  • Quote [07:36]:
    “Devante Adams...he’s one of the best man-beaters amongst wide receivers in the NFL. So WR18 ADP is just a little too low for a guy that still has top-10 upside.” — Alfredo
• [08:10] Dave's View:
  • Also bullish (WR16); confirms Adams “hasn’t lost a step” and Rams remain “a predictable target funnel.”
  • Predicts 65–70% of Rams’ targets to go to Adams and Puka Nakua.

3. Cooper Kupp – WR43 ADP Still Too High?

• [09:08] Dave’s Setup:
  • Kupp now in Seattle, falling in ADP but not far enough (consensus WR43).
• [09:41] Alfredo's Take:
  • Ranks Kupp at WR50:
    • McVay called Adams an upgrade, clear signal on Kupp’s decline.
    • Kupp, now 32, posted 2.5 catches/game over final 5 games of ‘24 (WR77 ppg).
    • In Seattle, likely stuck in the slot behind JSN; less upside even as second or third option.
  • Quote [10:55]:
    “It’s crazy to say… I think it’s Jackson Smith-Njigba and then a heavy dose of the running backs… I still don’t even see [Kupp] as a top 1 or 2 target on this team.” — Alfredo
• [11:46] Dave:
  • Matches Alfredo’s WR50 ranking (“We just become this conglomerate… we talk so much football.”).
  • Agrees: “I can’t imagine what is propping his ADP up where it is… 32 yr old Cooper Kupp, who looks completely washed…”

4. Dalton Kincaid – A TE1 Case Despite Disappointment

• [12:52] Dave:
  • “People are sick of Dalton Kincaid…” after a disappointing sophomore campaign.
• [13:19] Alfredo’s Position:
  • Has Kincaid TE11.
    • Bills lack target competition, Kincaid should be top-2 in team targets.
    • Prior to injury, was TE10; upside remains with Josh Allen at QB.
    • Compares favorably to other mid-tier TEs whose target share is less secure.
  • Quote [14:44]:
    “He’s got the reigning MVP and Josh Allen as his quarterback… If he’s healthy and we get some touchdown variance, that can push him into being a top 6 or 7 tight end.” — Alfredo
• [15:00] Dave:
  • TE12; also above consensus and “taking advantage of the bargain.”

5. Aaron Jones – Cautiously Down on RB29

• [16:29] Alfredo’s Argument:
  • Signings and draft picks (Jordan Mason, 1B language) put Jones in a dicey spot.
  • Aging (now 30), hit career-high 306 touches in ’24 but was only RB19 in points per game.
  • Uncertainty with JJ McCarthy at QB and team context.
  • Quote [17:38]:
    “Aaron Jones is kind of in that same mix as Joe Mixon and some of these other older running backs that are sort of tumbling down the rankings.” — Alfredo
• [18:37] Dave:
  • RB25, sees the RB dead zone from Mixon to Etienne as unexciting.
  • Would rather pick higher-upside WRs or TEs instead.

6. Josh Downs – The Slot Volume Sleeper Too Cheap at WR47 ADP

• [20:11] Alfredo’s Case:
  • Ranks Downs at WR40.
    • Slot usage, was PPR WR31 per game in ‘24, even spiked to WR17 pace with Flacco at QB.
    • New QB Daniel Jones is a “slot lover”; targets inside go to Downs.
    • Loves profile (“always open”; cited Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception).
  • Quote [21:16]:
    “I once again give context...where I have [Downs] in the same area as Reed, Jacoby Myers, Stefon Diggs, Jerry Jeudy… but being nearly a WR5 in ADP, that’s just weird.” — Alfredo
• [23:24] Dave:
  • Adds, “Daniel Jones...loves the slot. And if that’s where Josh Downs is, he’s going to get a lot of balls. I am completely with you...”

7. Rhamondre Stevenson – Down on a Crowded, Uninspiring New England Backfield

• [24:17] Alfredo’s Take:
  • ADP: RB39; Alfredo: RB44.
    • Patriots spent high pick on TreVeyon Henderson, signed Antonio Gibson.
    • Stevenson’s best ability (pass catching) may be reduced; offense trending to committee.
    • Fun Stat [26:00]:
      “Hermander Stevenson: RB29 in fantasy points per game last season… in 2023. We know what he is – and that was with tons of opportunity.” — Alfredo
  • Points out Coach Speak Index: Mike Vrabel’s “large part” comment on Stevenson is unreliable at best.
• [27:35] Dave:
  • Talks up Patriots’ switch to committee style; Stevenson’s efficiency plummeting (49th in YPC, 53rd in YPT, 140th in EPA).
    • Sees no upside even as handcuff; would prefer a player with contingent upside (see below, Will Shipley).

8. Heat Check & Deep Cuts: Will Shipley > Rhamondre Stevenson?

• [29:59] Dave:
  • Ranks Will Shipley ahead of Stevenson (RB43 vs RB44), prioritizing contingent upside if Barkley breaks down.
• [31:04] Alfredo:
  • Entertains similar rankings for deep dart throws like Jaydon Blue.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On McLaurin’s Touchdown Spike ([03:45]):
  “He’s had just one top-20 finish in his career before this… [2024] jump up to 13 touchdowns… team adds Deebo, possible Ben Sinnott. I just don’t feel comfortable drafting Terry McLaurin in round three to be [my WR1/2].” — Alfredo

• Davante Adams “man-beater” take ([07:36]):
  “He’s one of the best man-beaters amongst wide receivers in the NFL. So WR18 ADP… is just a little too low for a guy that still has top ten upside.” — Alfredo

• Kupp’s value drop ([10:55]):
  “I still don’t even see him as a top 1 or 2 target on this team… that’s kind of crazy to say…” — Alfredo

• On Josh Downs’s under-the-radar role ([21:16]):
  “Josh Downs… being nearly a WR5 in ADP, that’s just weird.” — Alfredo

• On Rhamondre Stevenson’s “locked in” mediocrity ([26:00]):
  “Rhamondre Stevenson: RB29 in fantasy points per game last season… in 2023. We know what he is and by the way that was with tons of opportunity.” — Alfredo

• On Will Shipley upside ([29:59]):
  “If everybody… is expecting Saquon Barkley to just break down this year… give me Will Shipley, a guy who has contingent upside that I don’t think any circumstances could ever push Rhamondre Stevenson into.” — Dave

• Show’s lighthearted tone ([31:36]):
  “Just back to it real quickly… at that point in the draft… I don’t care about any projectable volume… It’s contingent upside, that’s what I care about at that point.” — Dave

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:45] Terry McLaurin overvalued—market vs Alfredo’s ranking
• [06:02] Davante Adams underdrafted, role in Rams offense
• [09:41] Cooper Kupp too high at WR43, Seattle fit doubts
• [12:52] Dalton Kincaid TE11? Opportunity in Buffalo
• [16:29] Aaron Jones in Minnesota—no longer lead RB
• [20:11] Josh Downs as a slot target magnet under Daniel Jones
• [24:17] Rhamondre Stevenson—committees, low upside
• [29:59] Will Shipley > Stevenson for upside; deep-backfield handcuff value

Takeaways for Fantasy Drafters

• Be wary of overvalued aging producers (McLaurin, Jones, Stevenson, Kupp) who now face added competition or role decline.
• Don't fade volume magnets and “man-beaters” like Adams or sneaky slot receivers like Downs.
• Target opportunity-based upside at the end of drafts (e.g., Will Shipley) over stale-volume mediocrity.
• Monitor preseason news for role clarity (Stevenson/Henderson split, Kincaid’s usage), but don’t overreact to unreliable coachspeak.

Final Thoughts

Most of Alfredo’s “ADPs that make no sense” are actually endorsed by Dave, highlighting just how much consensus is building among smart drafters—though both agree the overall market often lags behind sharp evaluation of role, skill, and context. Whether you’re looking for cutthroat draft edges or some classic Footballguys banter, this episode delivers both.

Next Up:
Dave and Alfredo tease an episode focused on Bears vs. Dolphins—and perhaps, finally, a real on-air argument!