Best Early-Round Players To Target || Fantasy Football 2025

Summary

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Footballguys Fantasy Football Show

Episode: Best Early-Round Players To Target || Fantasy Football 2025

Hosts: Dave Kluge & Alfredo Brown
Release Date: July 31, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Dave Kluge and Alfredo Brown dive deep into the optimal early-round targets for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Covering rounds one through four, they discuss strategy, specific player preferences, and provide actionable insights on who to target to set your team up for a championship run. They debate wide receiver vs. running back priorities, challenge common narratives, reference evolving draft strategies, and highlight notable shifts in player outlooks for the upcoming season. Throughout, the conversation is candid and filled with banter, practical advice, and plenty of laughter.

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Draft Philosophy & Strategy (01:24 – 03:43)

• Emphasize the importance of flexibility in early rounds—avoid locking into rigid strategies (e.g., zero-RB, zero-WR), and instead let value and draft flow guide decisions.
• Early-round picks are less likely to "burn you" due to sharper ADP and fewer obvious risky picks this year.
• Recognize the value that can be found in rounds three and four for running backs, influencing a preference to target wide receivers early.
• Key Quote:
  "My overarching advice for the first three to four rounds of your drafts is just be fluid. Try to take the value where you can get it, and that should dictate your draft strategy."
  — Dave Kluge (03:38)

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Round 1 Targets (04:07 – 11:30)

Dave’s Pick: CeeDee Lamb (04:17)

• Has Lamb ranked as his 1.02 pick (behind Jamar Chase).
• Justifies moving Lamb above Justin Jefferson due to Jefferson's preseason hamstring injury and chemistry concerns with a new QB.
• While others like Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, or Saquon Barkley are solid, Dave stresses the advantage of a top WR early due to later RB depth.
• Quote:
  "CeeDee Lamb right now, going as the fifth or sixth player off the board, I think is just the most mispriced player in round one."
  — Dave Kluge (05:43)

Alfredo’s Pick: Bijan Robinson (05:54)

• Prefers the potential for positional edge at RB, believing Bijan could outscore other backs by a wider margin than Lamb will at WR.
• Highlights Bijan’s elite dual-threat profile: "One of only three RBs in NFL history with over 2,400 yards & 100 receptions in his first two seasons."
• Falcons' offense is built to run through Bijan—script- and team-proof.
• Quote:
  "If I can get the best running back by a wide margin, I'll take Bijan number one overall. He's the only guy where nothing’s changed, goal line work is solidified."
  — Alfredo Brown (09:15)

Other Key Insights:

• Both endorse flexibility—wouldn’t fault taking any of the backs or WRs in the tight top 5.
• Margins are razor thin in Round 1 (Chase, Lamb, Bijan, Gibbs, Barkley).

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Round 2 Targets (12:13 – 20:50)

Dave’s Pick: Ladd McConkey (12:13)

• Analytics darling: Late-season breakout and strong playoff performance suggest ascending WR1 status for the Chargers.
• Projected 17-game pace: 124 targets, 99 receptions, 1,500 yards, 8.5 TDs (from Week 8 onward last year).
• Sees Chargers as a rebuilt offense ready to explode; calls McConkey a little "mispriced," worth an early 2nd round pick.
• Quote:
  "Ladd McConkey, I've got him ranked as my 14th player off the board. He’s a bonafide stud—we just saw him every single week getting better and better and better."
  — Dave Kluge (13:22)

Alfredo’s Pick: Devon Achane (15:13)

• Chose Achane for his ceiling and league-winning upside in a more prominent role this year following the departures of Mostert and Jeff Wilson.
• Achane’s splits with Tua: Over 22 PPR points/game (compared to Gibbs' 18.9).
• Projected to play a larger snap share, be a top passing game outlet, and benefit from Miami’s high pace and volume.
• Quote:
  "Devon Achane is a player people should be talking about as a first-round pick. He can be the number two or three pass catcher and is the most efficient RB on a per-touch basis over the last two years."
  — Alfredo Brown (17:14)

Additional Mentions:

• Both see Round 2 as extremely deep—London, Brian Thomas, Josh Jacobs, and Nico Collins are all values.

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Round 3 Targets (22:01 – 31:38)

Dave’s Pick: Chase Brown (22:01)

• Admits a draft season "180" on Brown—recognizes his redraft upside outweighs concerns about his longer-term profile.
• Path cleared (Zach Moss waived, minimal competition) for Brown to command high-value touches in a strong Bengals offense.
• Drumbeat from team insiders: Brown is seen on the same level as Jamar Chase in terms of offensive importance.
• Quote:
  "Even if we shave a little bit off his opportunity, he should still have a stranglehold on the high-value touches, the pass-catching opportunities and the goal line work.”
  — Dave Kluge (23:11)

Alfredo’s Pick: Kyren Williams (25:49)

• McVay RBs produce despite rookie hype cycles (Evans, Corum, now Hunter).
• Williams: Top 10 in points per game each of the last two years; notable consistency and red-zone role ("TD in 26 of the last 28 games").
• Improvement on offense should help Williams’ efficiency if volume drops.
• Quote:
  "Kyren Williams should be ranked as a top 10 running back. He should be a round two pick, but he’s getting RB12 or RB13 prices. I want this safe floor and this upside in round three."
  — Alfredo Brown (29:05)

Additional Notes:

• The hosts emphasize the “sweet spot” for RB value in Round 3.
• Also mention James Cook, Breece Hall, Jackson Smith-Njigba as round three favorites.

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Round 4 Targets (32:47 – 41:41)

Dave’s Pick: Alvin Kamara (32:56)

• Notes "out of sight, out of mind" effect—Kamara’s injury during fantasy playoffs led to him being undervalued.
• Prior to injury, was RB5 (half PPR) and RB3 (full PPR).
• Defends Kamara’s workload and efficiency; sees heavy involvement regardless of Saints’ likely rough 2025 offense ("He’s still a tackle breaking, pass catching, big play machine.”).
• Quote:
  "If Alvin Kamara was getting drafted at the end of round two I'd still be drafting him. But with him going end of round four, sometimes round five, he's basically an auto-pick.”
  — Dave Kluge (35:06)

Alfredo’s Pick: George Kittle (35:42)

• Interested in dominant options at "premium" positions—wants top-tier TE edge over consensus.
• Kittle averages more air yards per target, YAC, red zone work, and is now the clear safety blanket with Iuke, Samuel, and others banged up.
• Praises Kittle’s efficiency in every key stat and expects offensive continuity to elevate him.
• Quote:
  "George Kittle is safe, but he has the upside of being the TE1 overall—people are drafting their perceived TE1 in the 2nd round; if I can get that in round four, I’m really happy.”
  — Alfredo Brown (38:00)
• Dave agrees and ranks Kittle as his TE1 over Bowers & McBride.

Additional Mentions:

• Round four is loaded at RB—Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton—as well as Rashid Rice as a possible value if his suspension lowers his ADP.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Draft Fluidity:
  "You shouldn’t go into a draft saying ‘I’m going zero-RB’ or ‘I’m going zero-WR.’ Be fluid, take the value as it comes, and let those first four rounds dictate your strategy."
  — Dave Kluge (03:32)
• On RB Importance for Winners:
  "When we look back at who made the biggest difference for championship teams, it’s always the RB who got that absurd workload and touchdown variance. Bijan Robinson is that guy this year.”
  — Alfredo Brown (07:33)
• On Rookie Breakout Timing:
  “Some wide receivers are getting mispriced—guys like Ladd McConkey are round two values due to hype pushing other positions up.”
  — Alfredo Brown (14:06)
• On Late RB Value Pockets:
  “Chase Brown, Kyren Williams, Breece Hall, James Cook—I love this pocket in round three. It lets me start with an elite wide receiver early and still get RB1s.”
  — Dave Kluge (31:01)
• On TE Differences:
  “If people are just locking in Brock Bowers as the consensus TE1, I’m perfectly fine waiting two rounds and taking George Kittle as my TE1 overall.”
  — Dave Kluge (39:07)

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• Draft Philosophy (Fluidity): 01:24–03:43
• Round 1 Targets & Debate: 04:17–11:30
• Round 2 Top Picks: 12:13–20:50
• Round 3 RB Value Zone: 22:01–31:38
• Round 4 (Kamara, Kittle, and RB depth): 32:47–41:41
• Final Remarks/Next Week’s Tease: 41:41–End

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Episode Tone

• Friendly, humorous, and conversational; deep expertise with actionable analysis and self-deprecating jokes.
• Insightful debate, willingness to challenge consensus, and transparent about changing stances (e.g., on Chase Brown).
• Focused on helping listeners find both safety and upside in their early-round picks.

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Coming Soon

• Mid-round targets (Rounds 5–8) and late-round sleepers (Rounds 9+)
• Increased episodes leading up to draft season, plus in-season actionable content (waivers, starts/sits)

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Summary Prepared for Listeners Seeking Key Early-Round Fantasy Football Picks & Analysis
(Ads, intro/outro, and non-content sections omitted.)

Transcript

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[Dave Kluge]

Something crazy today, Alfredo. I'm doing a doing a twofer workout. I was so busy yesterday I couldn't get to the gym. So I'm doing a morning.

[Alfredo]

You know, I really thought you were gonna say something cool when you're like I'm gonna do something crazy today. And then you're just like, I'm Gonna do a 2 for 1 workout today at the gym.

[Dave Kluge]

Chest and tries this morning. Legs.

[Alfredo]

Can't wait to tell you about the protein. I'm gonna eat later.

[Dave Kluge]

I've already gotten down chicken salad mixed.

[Alfredo]

With yogurt and full cow because you eat like the same three things every day for every meal.

[Dave Kluge]

My wife made a fire chicken salad over the weekend though. It's got sliced grapes and apples in it. My goodness, that sounds great.

[Alfredo]

I'm not gonna lie.

[Dave Kluge]

That sounds great. Protein slop.

[Alfredo]

While it's true that you can find sleepers and the players that are going to win your league later in the drafts, it's the early rounds where you want to make every pick count. So today Dave Kluge and I are going to talk to you guys about the early round players that we are targeting in rounds one through four. And Dave, I want to, before we jump into it, I want to know your strategy here. Do you tend to go a little bit safer in the earlier rounds? You can take risks later or you just kind of just keep a blend of it all as you're going through the whole draft.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I don't think there's a lot of like super risky picks. I feel like Ashton Gen Z is, you know, probably like one of the riskiest picks in the early rounds. But even him, like worst case scenario, you're probably still getting a top 10, top 12 finish. I don't think there's anybody in the early rounds this year that can really, really burn you. I feel like ADP is kind of sharp. There's a few discrepancies here and there. I mean, even Christian McCaffrey. Yeah. Like, he. He can hurt you, you know, I guess if we're looking at, like, volatility, sure, he's the most volatile, but the upside is so high that I'm still willing to take him. I've got him as my seventh player off the board in. In the first round, so I'm comfortable taking him as early as 107. But really, we talked about early round. What I want to tell people here is that you shouldn't go into a draft saying, like, I'm going to draft 0 RB or I'm going to draft 0 wide receiver or I'm going to do this. I think what you really need to do is be fluid in these first four rounds, and then once you kind of see what those first four rounds look like, then you develop your draft strategy. And Alfredo, I'm laughing already because I know I talked about this so many times on yesterday's show, but the NFFC live stream that I did with Joey Wright every Monday night, 8pm Eastern, be sure to tune into it. But we just did this one with Joey Wright, and we had a weird, fun first three rounds where we went running back, running back, tight end. And I think a lot of people would look at that and say, like, you shouldn't do that in the early rounds. And it definitely wasn't something that we planned to do. But after making those first three picks where we just got really good values on players, then we had to just really attack the wide receiver position in the middle rounds. And I don't think I ever would have thought that I'd start a draft running back, running back, tight end, and then six straight wide receivers. But because the running back value fell early, and then because we were able to get Trey McBride late in the third round, it shaped the rest of our strategy. My kind of overarching advice for the first three to four rounds of your drafts is just be fluid. Try to take the value where you can get it. And from there, then that should dictate your draft strategy.

[Alfredo]

You know what people love more than seeing someone else's fantasy team is hearing about it without any visual aid. It's great.

[Dave Kluge]

Well, I. I will send the draft board over to our video editor so we flash it during that little, little.

[Alfredo]

Oh, my God. No, I just. Let's just. Let's just hop into this because I really want to talk about these players.

[Dave Kluge]

Let's do it, Dave.

[Alfredo]

Round one. This is the pick you just don't want to miss, right? Who is the player that you are Targeting in round one when you have the opportunity?

[Dave Kluge]

CD Lam. I've got him as my 102 in drafts this year right behind Jamar Chase and I've had it there since before the Justin Jefferson injury. And I think now Justin Jefferson dealing with a hamstring injury. I. I think you have to move CD Lamb ahead of Justin Jefferson. I mean Jefferson should be back by week one. We're hopeful that he's going to be back by week one, but he's missing out on camp reps right now with JJ McCarthy a new to him quarterback and every day that he misses can impact that chemistry. I'm not saying that like Justin Jefferson is a terrible player by any means, but we were hoping that Justin Jefferson could be the wide receiver too with JJ McCarthy. I mean we were really wishcasting that JJ McCarthy would be a good player. We don't have to do any wish casting or hope with CD Lamb. Just two years ago with Dak Prescott, he was the overall wide receiver one. I mean this guy, his usage in this Cowboys offense. 2nd most target since 2022 behind only Devonte Adams most combined targets over the last two seasons. He is a good player in a good offense. I understand people wanting to go with Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs and Saquon Barkley ahead of CD Lamb and I don't think there's anything wrong with that. I think those guys are good players. But I have Jamar Chase and CD Lamb as my top two players and I want to try to walk away with one of those guys in the first half of round one because I feel like there's so much running back value that you can get in rounds three and four and five. So again I, I think you need to be fluid here and if you're picking at fourth overall and Bijan Robinson is there, I think that's a great pick. And if Saquon Barkley is there at 5, I think that's a great pick as well. But if I can walk away with a wide receiver in round one, that's what I want to do. And CD Lam right now, going as a fifth or sixth player off the board I think is just the most mispriced player in round one.

[Alfredo]

I love CD Lam and I actually really like the Cowboys passing offense this year. I think that people are going to be in for a surprise. I think there was a lot of like this weird narrative that they're going to be a run heavy team and then you look at their running backs like, oh, maybe they're not going to be a run heavy team. And Brian Schottenheimer has been a guy that has committed to the past in the past. And I, I absolutely see CD Lamb as the wide receiver too in fantasy football. I absolutely agree that I think he should be a top three pick in fantasy football. I'm taking him over Justin Jefferson. I'm taking him over Saquon Barkley too. There is one guy though, and the guy that I want to talk about that I think I'd rather have over him and it's Bijan Robinson. You mentioned him earlier and I think where I have a differentiation here is I want to have the best running back and this player gives me the opportunity to have the best running back by a wider margin than maybe CD Lamb being the best wide receiver compared to the other players. Does that make sense? Because right now Bijan, his adp, he's going anywhere from picks two to five. And I already had someone in the comments this morning, it's like you're not getting Bijan if you're not at the one of the top two picks. That's simply not true. You're getting Bijan at the third pick, the fourth pick, the fifth pick in certain drives as well.

[Dave Kluge]

It's impossible to predict. I've done over 100 drafts already that two to five, like, it's like you just throw them into a cup, shake them up and just spill them out. It is different in every single draft.

[Alfredo]

And, and I know that like we, we love the, I guess the reliance or the reliability of, of a wide receiver like a CD Lamb, like a Jamar Chase and their obvious explosive ability, their obvious touchdown upside that they have every year. When we look back at who was the player that made the biggest difference for teams that won the championship, it ends up being the Saquon barclays, the Christian McCaffreys, the running, the, the Jonathan Taylor. Go back a few years, it's always that running back that got that absurd workload upside, touchdown variance, the receiving work, all those things. Bijan Robinson is that special player that I see this being able to happen for. And it's not just me like wish casting it. He's one of only three running backs in NFL history to record 2400 yards and 100 receptions in their first two seasons. The other guys were Ladanian Tomlinson and Edan James. So we know we're already dealing with a very special talent with Bijan, but he's also one of the few running backs That's a lock for 340 touches with his type of receiving upside in an offense that truly has to run through him now. Yes, we're going to see plenty of Drake London as well, but outside of that, the Falcons can't rely on Kyle Pitts. We're now seeing an injury that's popped up here for Darnell Mooney and we don't know how that's going to affect him throughout the year. And they really didn't add anything else in the backfield or in the receiving core. So I don't know that this team is going to look any other direction than Bijon Robinson. And there were so many things we said last year about the Zach Robinson offense. He's the offensive coordinator there in Atlanta and how he has worked with running backs, whether that be Kyron Williams or even Todd Gurley and various running backs that we've seen in that Rams offense. It's the Sean McVay coaching tree and a running back in a Sean McVay offense tends to produce over and over and over. Could Michael Penix be bad? Sure. Like that is very possible. But the Falcons have also just have bad quarterbacks every single year with Bijon Robinson and even last year with Kirk Cousins struggling, they were still 6 in yards per game. Like this. This is a player who is script proof. He is team proof. And if we want to look at the upside argument for him, and I know we shouldn't do this, where we extrapolate from small sample sizes, but if we want to look at the upside case for Bajan, look at those final three games with Michael Penix, you go and take a look at them. 26.8 fantasy points per game and half PPR over that small sample size. If we look at Saquon Barkley, top running back across the season, 21.2 half PPR fantasy points. So we're talking about a difference of over five fantasy points per game. Is that likely to happen? No. Should we expect regression? Yeah. But there are other guys who had big ends this season just like Bijan, who like Jameer Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, who like Gibbs has David Montgomery returning and a new offensive coordinator. The offensive line got worse with Jonathan Taylor, his offensive line got worse. We don't know the quarterback situation. You bring in Tyler Warren who might even steal some goal line touches. If Anthony Richardson is healthy, he's stealing goal line touches. Bijan Robinson's the only guy where it's like nobody's going to be stealing goal line touches. Nothing new is happening. This is solidified that he should not only be a top five pick, I'm actually comfortable taking him at number one overall.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I mean, I, I'll. I'm not gonna push back too hard. Like I said, I think this tier from 2 to 4 is. Or 2 to 5 is so, so tight. I do have Robinson as my fifth player overall. I prefer Saquon Barkley, Jameer Gibbs, CD Lamb, and Jamar Chase. And I know I'm gonna get so much pushback for the Saquon Barkley, but this is just a, you know, matrimony of a great player in a great offense behind a great offensive line. I'm not really scared about last year's touches. I think that you can kind of bet on Saquon Barkley to continue being an outlier and then Jameer Gibbs. I mean, I think that in a vacuum, Bijan Robinson is in a better situation, but I think that Jameer Gibbs and Saquon or. And Bijan Robinson, I'm sorry, Bijan Robinson project pretty similarly. But Jameer Gibbs does have that contingent upside that we saw at the end of the year.

[Alfredo]

We.

[Dave Kluge]

Where if David Montgomery misses any time, we're looking at like a 30 point per game scorer in that offense. So again, I mean, these guys are. The margins between These players from 2 to 4 are Razor, Razor thin. I've got Bijan Robinson as my fifth player overall, but I wouldn't fault anybody for taking him as high as 2.

[Alfredo]

Yeah, I think my only pushback that I'll have there is like, I don't, don't want to draft a player in round one for contingent upside. Like, I just kind of want to know the full spectrum of everything, which is impossible to do in fantasy football. I want to feel a little more solidified with their, with their role. And that does, like, worry me ever so slightly with Dave Montgomery returning for Jameer Gibbs. But honestly, it, like you said, it's razor thin the margins with these players. We're arguing who should go one or five. Like, it really doesn't matter in, in your fantasy football drafts because everything's so interchangeable at this point. Dave, let's go to round two, where this is where we tend to see these players that are falling that oftentimes. I think that when we rank them, we think these players should probably go in round one.

[Dave Kluge]

Who do you have here? And there's a lot of players I like in round two this year. I mean, this was really hard to boil it down to just one guy. So what I did is, you know, I'm Just putting my money where my mouth is. I looked at who I have drafted the most of with a round two ADP and that player ends up being lad McConkey, a guy that I think is just a little bit mispriced right now. We already talked about it. I'm not going to open the whole Amanra Saint Brown can of worms again, but we talked about it on yesterday's show that I do prefer lad McConkey to Amanda St. Brown. And like a lot of rookies, it took him some time to heat up. You know, the first half of the season he was getting some pretty limited usage. A lot of what he was doing was coming out of the slot. The production was okay, but nothing mind blowing. But man, week eight onward is when we saw him really turn it up. His 17 game pace from week eight onward, 124 recept or 124 targets, 99 receptions, 1500 yards and eight and a half touchdowns. You look at that over a full season, that would have been the wide receiver four in scoring last year. And that doesn't take into account his playoff game where he had 14 targets, nine receptions, 197 yards and a touchdown. I mean we just saw this guy every single week getting better and better and better. He is, is a bonafide stud, you know, first round pick. He can play out of the slot and get those layups, those easy short throws. He can win deep, he can make plays after the catch. And the, the, the, the Chargers have made a lot of investments in the offense this year with Trey Harris and bringing in Rodney Gadson and obviously the first round pick in Omarion Hampton. It seems like they have done a rebuild the right way where they really focused on the trenches for a handful of years and now they're starting to get these fun skill players they can plug into the offense with Justin Herbert. So I'm just expecting this Chargers offense to be very, very good this year. Lad McConkey to be the wide receiver one and maintain that pace that we saw over the second half of last season. So he's a guy right now that's typically going in the middle to end of round one, but I've got him ranked as my 14th player off the board, meaning that I would take him early in round two. Yeah, sorry, in, in round two.

[Alfredo]

Yeah, yeah. I'm seeing him even go as late as round three in some of these where he's going on that two, three turn and that's. Listen, man, this, I think what we're doing is what's happening is that some of these wide receivers are getting mispriced because I think, like, for example, Brock Bowers is probably a little overpriced. I think some of these quarterbacks are getting pushed up and that's. That's just sort of moving things the wrong way for these players. So, yeah, like, I'm. I'm with you on lad McConkey going in round two, you mentioned.

[Dave Kluge]

I want to fact check myself. I did say first rounder. He was a second rounder when 34th overall. I always get confused. There was that cluster of wide receivers last year that went like late first, early second. And I always forget, like, it's actually the, the guys that went early second ended up being better than the guys who went late first. And I always got to. In retrospect, wasn't it also the year.

[Alfredo]

Where the Dolphins didn't have a first round pick? So it was like if you were the 33rd pick, you were technically the 32nd pick.

[Dave Kluge]

That was a couple of years that was. Yeah, that was the year that the Bears gave away their second round pick, which ended up kind of being a first round pick.

[Alfredo]

The Bears and Dolphins, huh?

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. That 32nd overall pick for Chase Claypool. What a, what a time to be alive.

[Alfredo]

That's how we remember things. All right, my. My player here in the second round. I went back and forth on this man and like, I started to think like, okay, if I want to go for another guy that I think has tremendous upside here with a good floor. Drake London. That makes sense, right? Man, Brian Thomas has some amazing upside. Josh Jacobs was like a guy. I was like, this is probably the safest pick in this round, especially with Marshawn Lloyd suffering an injury. And then it came down to two players, Nico Collins or Devon Hn. And this is where I look at both of these guys and say, man, they both have really strong floors. Who gives me the ceiling that could absolutely break fantasy football. And for me, I had to go with Devon Hn here as the second round guy that I want to target. And we should see a more prominent role this year for him without Raheem Mosert and Jeff Wilson. And I know they have the younger guys, Jalen Wright and Ollie Gordon, but both are extremely unproven. Mo certain Wilson were getting a little bit more benefit of the doubt, especially when it came to like, goal line stuff, short yardage stuff. Devon Hn is a guy that I think we need to be talking about as a first round pick. And Dave, you mentioned Jameer Gibbs is a Guy that you're extremely high on when I did. Just very basic comparison, right. It doesn't tell the full story, but very basic comparison of Devon HN with Tua Tango by LOA in the lineup, over 22 PPR points per game. Jameer Gibbs with David Montgomery in the lineup.

[Dave Kluge]

Oh, sorry.

[Alfredo]

No, no, no. I thought you were gonna say Tiger. Easy.

[Dave Kluge]

Well, the, the Devon HN splits without. Yeah, it was like 97 games or something.

[Alfredo]

Yeah, let me get there, babe.

[Dave Kluge]

Let me get there.

[Alfredo]

I'm doing it, I promise. But then I compared it to a guy like Jameer Gibbs who when he had David Montgomery, which is to be expected this year, he was below 19 points per. He was at 18.9 points per game. So to see that Devon H and in his normal ecosystem is roughly three and a half points higher than Jameer Gibbs in his normal ecosystem, which once again you get into a dangerous game if you try to extrapolate one way or the other of with players without them. These are the splits. So this is what's going to happen. It's not that. It's that we can see the vision of what can happen for a player when everything is going the way it's supposed to. And all of that is to be said with Devon H.N. getting just 62% of the snaps, which was 19th amongst running backs in the NFL. That number could and should go up. A lot of the, the, the negative from him last year was when Tua was out, which by the way can absolutely happen again when Tua was not there. Dave, you're right. It's closer to nine ppr points per game. That was two receptions per game that he was getting during that time. A lot of that came down to really bad QB play. And John who Smith being a guy that was just absorbing targets with John Smith out and now, not that it's this amazing backup quarterback, but Zach Wilson being there. We're looking at something that should be a little bit different should Tua Tung of Iloa go down. And when we look back at last year, Devon Achan with both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the field. But no John who Smith. Devon Achan was at a 22% target share. That would be number one amongst running backs. Who Alvin Camaro was number one at 19.6. So this is once again a player that has a massive gap in a data set that matters. And looking at the Dolphins tight end is going to be a non factor. The secondary is absolutely decimated. The defense is going to be really bad. The offense might lead the league in pass attempts. And if Devon A. Chan is going to be the number three or potentially number two pass catcher on a team that's having issues with their wide receivers, they do have an improved offensive line. This is a player who's had the most fantasy points per touch amongst all running backs over the last two years. Yes, I want to go for the upside of Devon Hn in round two.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I'm completely with you there. I've got Devon Hn as my number four running back in drafts this year. And I just put a lot of back rankings a few days ago at Saquon Barkley, Jameer Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Devon HN and Christian McCaffrey are all my tier one guys. And I labeled that tier could be the overall RB one. And I think that people aren't even taking into account that that is literally the upside. Forward Chan and and I like this because we've seen this Mike McDaniel offense has changed a lot. You know, could be injuries, personnel changes. Whatever it may be, we've seen very different Mike McDaniel offenses over the years. And what I especially like is that we've seen two paths to very good production for Devon Hn his rookie season. He wasn't catching a lot of passes. He was coming in as the change of pace guy and just ripping off 80 yarders what seemed like every single week. Just one of the most efficient rushers we've seen in NFL history. Last year he gets a bigger workload. The rushing efficiency goes down a little bit, but he makes up for it. Being an extreme pass catcher like you said, 22% target share in some of these games. So there are multiple outs to an elite finish. Whether it be that he returns to the guy he was his rookie season and just starts, you know, Jaylen Wright is a little bit more involved and we don't see quite as much opportunity, but we see him go back to that rookie season efficiency or whether he maintains the role as the workhorse or whether he maintains this out as a pass catching back. There are so many ways that he can score fantasy points that he's just an easy pick. Before I Talked about lad McConkey, I said round two. There are so many players I like here and really what it comes down to Nico Collins, he goes round one in a lot of leagues. So that's why I didn't really feel like it was fair to talk about him. I think he's getting pulled down by a handful of sites, but man like Nico Collins, lad McConkey Drake, London, Devon, Achan. Those are the guys in round two that I want to draft. There's a lot of other guys in round two that I'm not even really entertaining. It seems like one of those four guys I'm walking out of with in, in round two of every single draft.

[Alfredo]

Yeah. And I think this is where, like, yes, you want to be as safe as you can in early rounds, but you also do need to be looking for upside. Like, this is not something that you turn off and, and turn on as rounds go on. And like you said, like, there's not huge differences between these players. And, and I hate to say this because it kind of like defeats the purpose of what we do, but I really want to just, like, lift the veil on it. There's a lot of luck of whether a player is going to stay healthy or not. Like, everything in the data sets tell you, Christian McCaffrey should probably be the number one player getting drafted in fantasy football, but if he's not healthy, then there's a big issue there. And I think that gets baked into his draft cost as to why he's not going number one overall. So, like, I don't think there's a lot of arguments to be made against first and second round picks, but you still want to have that upside baked in. So I'm with you 100 there. Let's, let's move on to round three here where I think this is where I would say things do start to change a little bit. You start to find yourself into patterns of maybe there's more wide receivers I like from here, there's more running backs from here. This is where all of a sudden there's new positions. There's quarterbacks and tight ends, players like that. So where'd you go here in round three?

[Dave Kluge]

I went with a running back. And I feel like this is a pocket where I really like a lot of the running backs, but the one that jumps out to me specifically, I've done a complete 180 on Chase Brown, and I think early in the off season we have our dynasty brains on. And I'm looking at Chase Brown, who is an undersized, relatively unathletic Day 3 pick. And all of those things concern me when I'm looking at trying to project two, three, four, five years out. But we're in redraft season. I, I couldn't care less about what happens in 2026 and beyond. And, and right now it seems like the, the, the path is paved for him to have a pretty Similar role to what he did last year. And, and my take early in the off season was pretty simple. You know, 96% opportunity share over the back half of the season. I said, you know, if we shave 10, 15% off of that, you know, I was thinking about it as just shaving 10 to 15 off of his overall production, which would have pushed him from being a top five running back to more of a top 12 running back. And I was worried that that could happen a little bit. The more that I've looked at this and talked to some other people who've challenged my opinion a little bit. Even if we shave a little bit off, you know, if he goes from a 96 opportunity share to a 70 or an 80 opportunity share, he should still have a stranglehold on the high value touches, the pass catching opportunities and the goal line work. And that's really what we care about for running backs. So now we've got the news that they waived Zach Moss dealing with this neck injury. So even less competition than there was Samaj P. Ryan, you know, yeah, he's a familiar face there in Cincinnati, but whether it be on the the Chiefs or the Broncos, he just looked like a shell of himself over the last handful of years. Taj Brooks is a guy that I like a lot. Don't get me wrong, I really like Taj Brooks, but I think rookie year, we're going to see him kind of relegated to a similar role that we saw Chase Brown in his rookie year, where he's coming in as this change of pace guy getting the occasional touches here. And I don't think they're going to trust him on pass catching downs. They're not going to trust him near the goal line. I think what we might see is Taj Brooks coming in for five to eight touches a game on early downs in between the 20s. And if anything, that can help keep Chase Brown fresh enough that we can see him go back to that rookie year efficiency where he was leading the league in breakaway run rates. So I'm not overly concerned about the added competition in the backfield. I think that this actually could end up being a benefit for Chase Brown. And the drumbeat that we're hearing out of Cincinnati is them just talking about him being a focal point of the offense. They look at him on the same level that they look at Jamar Chase. And T. Higgins is just a game changing player on the offense. So early in the off season I was kind of out on Chase Brown, but now things have changed. My take on Chase Brown has Evolved a little bit and now he's a guy that I'm walking out of in round three with a lot of shares simply because it's a good offense. He's going to get the opportunity. And I think that all of the high value touches that we really care about in fantasy football are still going to go his way.

[Alfredo]

Just when you think you're out, they pull you back in. Dave.

[Dave Kluge]

And something else, I'll say this is like a me thing. Personally and Alfredo, we were both way in on Chase Brown last year. And I feel like this happens all the time where like the sleepers that I really, really like, they break out and then they spike in value and then I have this visceral reaction where it's like, no, you know, I like.

[Alfredo]

Chase Brown before, like everyone finding out about the band that you. That you really liked.

[Dave Kluge]

Exactly. Yeah. And I did the same thing with Amanda St. Brown coming in his rookie season. I have a tweet from that off season saying that Amanda St. Brown was my favorite wide receiver in the draft, that he could lead the lines and targets and then he spikes to be in a first round pick and then I'm like, yeah, I don't know if I want that anymore. And now it's happening with Chase Brown. It's something that I need to reflect on and wonder why I have this visceral reaction to people liking the players that I liked. But Chase Brown was way on him in him last year. Liked him coming in as a rookie, actually, and then he spiked in value and I kind of had this distaste. And now that I've looked at it a little bit closely, I think it was silly to fade him earlier in the off season. And now I'm trying to make up for all of the drafts that I passed on. Chase Brown in early.

[Alfredo]

Man, I'm with you on round three being a really sweet spot for drafting some running backs because there are a couple guys there that are going, I want to say, not a full round late, but they should be going in the second round. Chase Brown is one of them. And the other guy that I'm going to talk about is Kyron Williams. Because I just like, I don't, I don't get it, what we're doing. We've done this every year with the Sean McVeigh running back where it's, oh, he drafts someone and we say, ah, that person's gonna steal touches. And. And I remember, like when Zach Evans got drafted to the Rams and we're like, oh, he's gonna Be a thing. And then I remember when Blake Corn gets drafted, the Rams, they're like, he's going to be a thing. And then now. And I'm like, I'm not hating against these players, but I'm simply saying is like when you have the guy who is already starting and producing consistently, is it always efficient? No, but we've seen where even the most efficient running backs simply just don't get volume. Kyron Williams is getting volume. He's been the RB6 in total points in total fantasy points in back to back years. Last year he was the running back 10 in points per game. The year before that he was running back two in points per game. And this year, sorry, this year he's going to have one of the easier schedules. Last year it was really tough against running backs. And that's something that, I mean, yeah, we want to say like matchups are going to be hard to decipher this early in the season, but for the most part we kind of know how good or bad a defense is against certain aspects of offense, whether they're good against the pass, good against the run. And so we kind of know what that is. The schedule should be easier for him this year. When you have a healthy Matt Stafford, this team is rolling like no other. There should be more scoring opportunities with Devonte Adams as a part of this offense here where last year you have the shell of Cooper cup who you're not really able to move the ball as much as you'd like to. So even if the volume goes down, the efficiency should go up. Defenses are going to have to play out against both of these wide receivers here. There's tight end. Oh my gosh, I'm blanking on the names. Terrence Ferguson, I almost said Jake Ferguson. Rookie tight ends, Ferguson, like this is an offense that is going to have more weapons than they've had in the past. Yet that shouldn't affect Kyron Williams and the volume that he can get. And he's led the Rams backfield in touches in each of the last 30 games he's played. He's had a touchdown in 26 of the last 28 games. Which is crazy to think that a player is that automatic on touchdowns. So when you're talking about volume on the ground, volume through the air, touchdown and like touchdown variance becomes a thing that we get really worried about. Like that doesn't really happen with Kyron. 26 of the last 20.

[Dave Kluge]

Definitely don't have to worry about Stafford trying to punch one in. I mean he's giving that ball to Kyro Williams every time.

[Alfredo]

Right. And like, there's already talk of him negotiating a contract extension and like, that's not something you do when you don't want to give a guy work. So, yeah, I, like, I'm, I'm not worried about Jarquez Hunter being a guy that's going to take a lot of volume. Could he come in and be a change of pace guy? Absolutely. I see this the same way.

[Dave Kluge]

I think Blake Corum is the two, by the way.

[Alfredo]

Yeah.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. I still think, like all this Jarquise Hunter hype, I mean, there was a lot of hype around Blake Coram last year.

[Alfredo]

We get excited about rookies, man.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. McVeigh says all of the things that we want to hear, like to, to get this, elicit this excitement about rookies. I think Blake Corum's probably still the guy, but jerkwise, Hunter, I mean, he's just like the easiest pass in drafts for me right now.

[Alfredo]

Yeah. These rookies get steamed up and it's just like, look, Kyron Williams should be ranked as a top 10 running back. He should be getting drafted in round two, but he's not. He's often getting drafted as the running back, 12 or 13. He's going in round three. I want this safe floor, I want this upside. I want the high touchdown upside as well. In an offense that could be even better than they've been in the last few years.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I'd say again, you know, dynasty standpoint, I'm a little bit worried about Kyren long term because he hasn't gotten that contract yet. And like, if they were really incentivized to keep him around long term, he'd have an offense offer on the table. And we've been hearing about this offer for the last six months that is yet to come to fruition. So long term, I'm a little bit concerned. But again, we're talking about 20, 26 and Kyron Williams. This is where there's like a big disconnect between the actual game of football and fantasy football or people who watch the game and people who live in spreadsheets because the efficiency metrics for Kyron are awful. Like, so, so, so, so bad. Like there isn't an efficiency metric you can pull that makes you feel good about Kyron Williams maintaining his job, but it's his versatility that keeps him on the field. And this is something Jordan Rodrigue talked about a while back, is that they don't have to substitute anything they can play in a hurry up. And whether It's a goal line play or whether it's a passing down play or whether it's an early down run up the middle, whatever play they're running. Kyron Williams is up to the challenge there. He's a good pass blocker, he's a good pass catcher, he's a good goal lineback. He's still got just enough juice that he could rip off the occasional big play. So it's his versatility that makes him so valuable to this offense. It's not his EPA or his breakaway speed or his juke rate or any of the metrics that we care about. It's the versatility. They can keep that same package on the field for the entire drive down the field without having to make any sort of changes. And then that keeps the defenses on their heels and it keeps defenses unable to make substitutions. So that's why Kyron Williams is valuable. We talk about it in this round right here, Round three. I, I like all of the running backs in this round. Chase Brown, Kyron Williams, Breeze Hall, James Cook, and, and that's why I'm kind of okay hitting wide receiver early in drafts because I love this pocket of value right here. The only other non running back that I'm kind of interested in in round three is Jackson Smith. The Jigba.

[Alfredo]

He was almost my pick. Yeah, he was almost my pick here.

[Dave Kluge]

And if I walk away with, you know, a running back in round one or Jonathan Taylor in round two, then Jackson Smith Najigba is a lot more inviting in round three. But if I start off wide receiver, wide receiver, I'm happy with any of these round three running backs being my RB one.

[Alfredo]

And I'm, I'm glad that you just gave the context there of builds will change the way you're drafting. So if you've already gone running back, running back, you get to round three. I probably wouldn't go running back again. I'd be looking at wide receiver. And like, that's a very different thing here. So Dave, like, yeah, Jackson Jigba is the guy like I was going to talk about. I'm not going to bore everybody with that. But like. Because we've talked about them before, but yeah, it. We need that context of yes, we both like Chase Brown and Kyron Williams. But if you lucked out and you somehow got the two guys I talked about earlier, right, Like Bijan Robinson, like, I'm not going Bijan Devoni Chan Kyron in a draft, like, I'm probably not. It's a good team. Damn Good team, but I'm probably not doing that. So I'm glad you gave that context there. Let's move on. Round four here. This is where things can tend to get a little spicy. I do think that people start to tend to make take a little bit more risk here. Players that are going in the fourth that are just horribly mispriced or we also typically tend to see like these are the guys that are getting the hype for the breakout and they're getting pushed up draft board. So who are you going with here?

[Dave Kluge]

You know, I gave you a player before the show, Ellen Camaro, and I'm so tempted to just pivot to George Kittle. Like it's so hard to choose between these two.

[Alfredo]

I think you can't do it.

[Dave Kluge]

All right then. All right, I'll let you take George is a guy I've talked about Alvin Camara so much on this show already this off season. It's an out of sight, out of mind thing. He was hurt in the fantasy playoffs. He didn't help anybody win their leagues, so people just write him off as dead. And Alfredo, I know I kind of quiz you on a show a couple of weeks ago asking where he was in scoring before the injury. He was the RB5 and half PPR. He was the RB3 in full PBR and then he got hurt. But prior to getting injured, I mean he was just a plug and play guy. He is the featured piece of this offense, second in the league in touches per game before that injury. And Dan Henry said this on a, on a podcast that I was doing with him a couple of months ago and it just really kind of made me think about it. I was already in on Alvin Camara, but he said, you know, he should be getting drafted somewhere in the Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry range. He's an aging running back who was hyper productive last year, but the injury is really the only thing that is causing him to get pushed down draft boards a little bit. The offensive. Yeah, yeah, the offense is going to be terrible, but the offense was terrible last year. They were one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league. They were dealing with Derek Carr injuries. They were dealing with Chris, a lot of injuries.

[Alfredo]

This is the Dennis Sonny in Philadelphia meme. Like I can go lower.

[Dave Kluge]

You can get worse and it could get worse and like, who knows, maybe they bring in a, a Kirk Cousins or trade for Jameis Winston or something like that. But I mean it's not going to be good. But all the concerns we have about Tyler Shug and Spencer Rattler. It's going to make their job a lot easier if they could just see Alvin Camara sitting there in the flat and get the ball in his hands. This is a guy that hasn't really dipped in efficiency yet either. And a lot of times when running backs get to that age 29, age 30, 31, that's when we see that efficiency start to dip. And that's when I want to get out on these players. But we haven't seen the efficiency start to dip for Alvin Camara. He is still a tackle breaking, pass catching, big play machine. He gets almost all of the goal line work here. And I am excited for Kendra Miller. I think that we might see a little bit more Kendra Miller this year than we have in years past. There's other people out there that are excited about the rookie Devin Neal, but at the end of the day, this is Alvin Camara's team. I think that he's still going to be one of the most heavily involved running backs and I think it's just an egregious misprice. Like if Alvin Camara was getting drafted at the end of round two, I'd still be drafting him frequently. But with him going at the end of round four, often falling into round five, he's just basically an auto pick for me at that point in the draft.

[Alfredo]

Yeah, man, it's, it's crazy because I'm, I'm with you there on Alan Camara. And I think that round four is a hotbed for good running backs. Dude. Rounds three and four, like, it almost does. I know we said at the beginning we don't want to go into a draft with a certain build in mind, but it does almost seem like an ideal way to start your draft is receiver, receiver, and then back to back running backs in rounds three and four.

[Dave Kluge]

Because that does seem Hampton and Ken Walker, like, there are some really good running backs still sitting there in round four too.

[Alfredo]

And those, those are two guys that, like, each of those were candidates for me today. Like, I want to talk about Amarian Hampton because, I mean, I'm seeing sharp drafters are taking him in the third round. And now with the Naji Harris news that ADP is actually going to reach the third round. So, like, that's the only thing for me is like, I'm not sure that I'll still be there on Amarian Hampton when we, if, when we get to actual draft time because that ADP could go up. Ken Walker's a guy that I really, really like, but I ended up going a different direction and I know I already said it here earlier, George Kittle is the player that I ended up going with here in round four. Rashid Rice is also another guy that I thought about as well. But the suspension, I think that ADP is going to go down like he's probably going to end up being a fifth round pick. But George Kittle is the guy I ended up going with here and I think a lot of it just has to do with I want to be really good at premium positions. I either want to take guys really early or really late. And I don't see Brock Bowers as the guy that's differentiating me at the tight end spot. But I do see George Kittle as the guy that is a big separator between a top tier tight end and the rest of the guys that are going a little bit later. He was tight end one in points per game last year and he just continues to defy the age gods in fantasy football. He's catching the ball further downfield than any other tight end with his average depth of target and he's still being top two in yards after catch every single single year. Like this is a guy who he's not just good at one thing, he's good at all of the things. And his 22 target share is near the top amongst all tight ends in the NFL. He's second in red zone targets behind Trey McBride except for some God forsaken reason he actually catches them. I don't know what happens with Trey McBride, man. Like the targets just they, they're, they float. But now there's no Debo Samuel. We've got the concerns about Christian McCaffrey's Achilles going into this year. We've got injuries in the off season with both Juwan Jennings and Ricky Piersoll. You've got the Juwan Jennings trade than the contract request. What's going on there. You've got Brandon Iuk who might be slow to return.

[Dave Kluge]

Andy's dealing with an injury now too. Juwan Jennings on top of that.

[Alfredo]

Yeah, I said that.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Alfredo]

It's like there's just there are so many question marks on every single skill position on the Niners offense except for George Kittle and he's a guy that I, I, I don't want to say this incorrectly but if I remember correctly it was he had the top, top passer rating when targeted for any tight end in the league when Brock Purdy was targeting him. That is something that if I'm the quarterback that yes, I Got my contract. I want to target the guy that makes me most comfortable. Like, this is. This is one of these things where this team is, I think is on the verge of blowing up. And what they need is some continuity. So for me, George Kittle, he's safe pick here, but he has the upside of being the tight end one overall, which is people are drafting their perceived tight end one overall in the second round. So if I can get that in round four, I'm really happy with it.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. You talk about him leading in quarterback rating when targeted. Do you know what else he leads in? Fantasy points? Yards per route run, yards per target, yards per reception, yards per team pass attempt, explosive rating, dominator rating, EPA fantasy points per route run. I mean, he just leads in every single efficiency metric that we care about. And it is, you know, he, he does block a lot. And that's something that people use to knock George Kittle years and years and years ago.

[Alfredo]

It doesn't matter exactly that like, like the dude is going into like what year eight and we're just like, he's blocking like, shut up.

[Dave Kluge]

And also that frustrates me so much. His route participation has also changed quite a bit. You know, that was a big knock on him early in his career, but he is running more routes now than he was early in his career and he is still maintaining the same efficiency that he was earlier in his career. So I know, you know, I, I'm no stranger to, to having some big deviations in my rankings to the consensus. Anybody who watches the show knows that. But everybody is just, you know, chalking up the same top three in their rankings this year where it's Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle. George Kittle is my tight end one this year. I don't care. There's no reason to bet against him. Like, he is such a good player. You talk about all of the question marks with the other pass catchers there. Brandon Iuk, injury, Debo Samuel out of the picture. Juwan Jennings with what's going on with him. I do like Ricky Pierce all, don't get me wrong, but Christian McCaffrey, we're hoping that he can get. The reality is that we might see George Kittle just be the number one weapon on this offense for the entire team or for the entire season. So just egregiously mispriced in my opinion. He's my tight end one again this year.

[Alfredo]

Well, that's certainly bold of you. I mean, I love George Kittle. I've got him at tight end three. I've got Trey McBride, a tight end one. It's hard for me to like I have Trey McBride ahead of Bowers. It's hard for me to move Bowers tight end three, but it's tight end man, like that is very much within the realm of possibility. I think what it just tells me is that, like, I don't think either of us are buying into Brock Bowers hype in the second round. That just seems way too rich.

[Dave Kluge]

I mean, I gotta be careful in this.

[Alfredo]

Say it.

[Dave Kluge]

Brock Bowers is more likely to come up short of last year's numbers than he is to just grow off of year one. You look at it, just a whole new offense, new weapons there. I think last year they were kind of out of necessity, forced to just run the offense through Brock Bowers. But now that they have a competent quarterback and now that they have a good running back, I think that we see more of a balanced offense. I think we see Jacoby Myers a little bit more involved. They made two big investments in the wide receiver position as well. So I love Brock Bowers. Again, we always. We say this all the time. Don't hear what I'm not saying. Brock Bowers is a very, very good player, but I've got him, Trey McBride and George Kittle all in the same tier. Brock Bowers is at the end of that tier. I'd prefer George kittle and Trey McBride to Brock Bowers in a vacuum.

[Alfredo]

Yeah, I'm with you there, man.

[Dave Kluge]

And it sucks. Like, I hate having FOMO on Brock Bowers. Like, you know, every time Brock Bowers.

[Alfredo]

At his price, though, I don't think I'm gonna have any of them.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I haven't drafted a single share of Brock Bowers this year. Like I said, done over 100 drafts and he's one of those players that I'm just looking at. Like when I'm choosing between lad McConkey and Drake London and Jonathan Taylor and Brock Bowers. I just can't stomach taking Bowers there.

[Alfredo]

Yeah, not likely. Well, Dave, you and I, we went through the first four rounds here. Our favorite early players to target. And we mentioned some other ones too that we're really excited about as well. But we limited this down to just talking one player each per round. You and I are going to be back again next week for two episodes again next week on Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday we're going to have the mid round players. Sorry, mid round players that we're targeting. I almost said mid players. That's the kids say nowadays, mid. But yeah, the mid round players that we're targeting, rounds. Okay, okay. Let's not do that late in the show rounds five through eight and then the late round players, the sleepers that we're looking at rounds nine and later, that'll be next week and we're going to be ramping up the shows after that. It's going to go to three shows a week and then four shows a week and then we're going to give you five episodes in the week leading up to your fantasy draft weekend. Dave's just finding this out for the first time.

[Dave Kluge]

Adjust my schedule and then once we.

[Alfredo]

Get into the season we're going to be on that regular schedule for you guys talking about waivers, your starts and sits and everything that you need for the week. As always, I want to thank everybody for watching or listening all the way through for myself, for Dave. Dave, we'll see you next time. Adios.