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Boom or Bust: NFL Players Who Could Make or Break Your 2026 Season
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Foreign. There are some players that you just flat out feel good about drafting. And then there's other players that you know could end up being dead weight by week five. And today Joey Wright and I, we are going to talk about some of those make or break players, guys that we will know almost immediately after the season kicks off, whether they are ready to step up and enter that next level or not. And Joey, let's start with wide receivers. You have a first round pick here, a guy who had a fantastic rookie season, completely fell off in year two and now going into year three, I don't think anybody knows what to do with Brian Thomas Jr yeah, I mean
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Brian Thomas Jr's career so far could have been written by Charles Dickens because it's been a tale of two cities. There we go. All right. His Rookie season of 2024 to Pierre Jacksonville is like not only found, I would say their wide receiver of the future, but like one of the elite wide receivers in the league. He was the wide receiver four in 2024. Double digit fantasy production and 14 of the 18 games he played 10 or more targets in his final six games. That historic playoff run though, I think is what drove that draft capital for him in 2025. He finished each week of the fantasy football playoffs with at least 20 fantasy points and he was the ride receiver. One fantastic finish to the season in 2024. Even more impressive for me as he did all this without Trevor Lawrence. Brian Thomas Jr. Truly looked like he was going to help fantasy teams win their championships for years to come. So going into 2025 we were all ready first round draft capital. He finished as wide receiver four take him to end of the first round. We were really happy with that pick and it turned out to be the biggest draft day bust of last year. Finishes a wide receiver 43. And oddly, Trevor Lawrence had his best season in the league, but he accomplished it with Parker Washington, tight end Brenton Strange and the mid season acquisition of Jacoby Myers coming in. So Trevor Lawrence didn't do any of this really with Brian Thomas Jr. It was all with these other guys that were either already there or brought in halfway through the season. Thomas watched his 10 receiving touchdowns in 2024, slipped to just two in 2025. And one major fallout for him really came from in the red zone in 2024. Eight of those 10 touchdowns I mentioned came in the red zone in 2025. He only had one receiving touchdown in the red zone. Let me actually add something to that. He only had one reception in the red zone in 2025. That's how bad his 2025 red zone production was.
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Yeah, they had to draw up rushes for him like they were handing the ball off to him near the goal line trying to get him touchdowns last year.
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It was terrible. Parker Washington is who led the team in the red zone work last year. So what happened? Well, he had an ankle injury in 2025 and he told ESPN that was more of a. Less of a frustration and more of kind of a learning curve. Learning through adversity. You know, you get injured in the when you're in the NFL you got to play through injuries. Because of this injury though it seemed like the Jaguars spread the ball around and their offense did look better. I mentioned Parker Washington led the team in the red zone. Four other players were tied for second and Brian Thomas Jr. Was not one of those four. He was six on the team in red zone targets last year. But why do I have optimism in Brian Thomas Jr. Well, we've seen it, we've seen it from him in his rookie year and the Jaguars didn't make a trade and there was a lot of talk of Brian Thomas Jr. Possibly going to New England. I feel like every wide receiver that maybe didn't pan out in 2025 or had struggles was being mock traff. Is that mock drafted or no mock traded? Is that a thing?
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There were a lot of trade rumors. There was, there was speculation swirling that
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so many people are going to New England. Well, Brian Thomps Jr. Stayed there. Liam Cohen believes in him and so that's probably my biggest indicators. Liam Cohen's Faith in him. The biggest question this season, going into drafts for me that I've asked everybody is which, which Jaguars wide receiver are you taking first? And for me it's probably still Brian Thomas Jr. Just because we've seen it before, but now I can get him instead of at the end of the first round, at the beginning of the seventh round.
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Yeah. And you know, it's kind of weird when I look at this Jacksonville wide receiver adp. I'm pulling it up right now to make sure nothing has changed since I've done my last draft. But yeah, like you see Parker Washington going first off the board, then Jacoby Myers, then Brian Thomas. Like I prefer Jacoby Myers of the bunch because we've seen that he is just a perfect fit for this Jaguars offense. Jacoby Myers can do so many of the things that Chris Gowin can do. When we saw Chris Godwin giving us top two production in a Liam Cohen offense. But Joey, there was one thing you said that I want to go back to and it was one of the first things you said. You were talking about Brian Thomas Jr. And you said even more impressive were that his best games came down the stretch without Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. And that's really what concerns me more than anything. And I think you can look at that, you know, it's really the eye of the beholder, however you want to look at it. Like, was it impressive that he did this without Trevor Lawrence or, or was it just late in the year when Mac Jones had nothing to play for and there was nobody else there and he was just throwing yolo balls deep downfield. I mean we saw with Mac Jones he averaged 11 targets per game. He scored five touchdowns over a six game stretch. I mean since then he's had two touchdowns like the entire next season. So I do wonder like we've seen, we saw it last year in San Francisco where Mac Jones is just willing to rip the ball downfield. And sometimes it's not good for winning football, but it is very good for fantasy fantasy football. So you know, I, I go back and forth on Brian Thomas Jr. I do worry sometimes that he just isn't a good fit in this offense. And I feel like every time I talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars I say this square peg, round hole analogy because I don't think Brian Thomas can do what is asked of receivers in a Liam Cohen offense, which is to catch the ball through traffic, to generate catch or generate yards after the catch. That's Jacoby Myers does well. That's what Parker Washington does well. That's what we see Travis Hunter can do in small sample sizes. So I do worry that Brian Thomas Jr. Kind of falls into this sacrificial X role where he is just clearing things out, getting deep downfield to open up more stuff underneath. That does give him an alluring ceiling, especially in best ball where you don't have to start him. But I do worry that this guy's floor every single week is just going to be a zero. That if he isn't catching a big play, if he isn't scoring a touchdown, he isn't garnering the targets to give him any sort of safe weekly floor.
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Yeah, that's absolutely possible. One of the things though, like with Mac Jones, like absolutely, the production looked better with Mac Jones. If we didn't, if we saw the uptick in production was because of Mac Jones, it was more of just a continuation and reaching a new plateau. I don't know if we ever get Brian Thomas Jr. Back to where he was in 2024, but I, I do believe it'll be better than 2025. And you mentioned the ADP just to put his out there and NFFC high stakes drafts. Right now he's going as the 33rd wide receiver. So still very late, like being taken as a wide receiver three and we've
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seen that people have very quickly soured on these young wide receivers that didn't perform well. We did that. We noted it when we did our mock draft a couple of weeks ago. How far Brian Thomas Jr. Fell, how far Marvin Harrison Jr. Fell. Even Roma Dunes A now fallen behind Luther Burden in adp. I mean we have become very, I don't want to say short sighted, but maybe impatient is the best word. Like you know, if these young wide receivers doesn't matter where you were drafted. If you're a first round wide receiver and you aren't giving elite production within the first year or two, fantasy managers are quick to close the door and just say that's it. So I think that that opens up an opportunity where I have fears about Brian Thomas Jr. That he isn't going to develop into the player that we had hoped. But I think that is baked into his cost right now. Like you said wide receiver 33, you're kind of drafting him. I don't want to say near his floor because his floor is even lower than that. But you could potentially be stumbling into a guy who could get healthy, do what he did over the second half of his rookie season and help you win leagues for pretty cheap in 2026. Well, if you're watching this show, we're going to be talking about more make or break players. I've got a wide receiver we're going to talk about and then we're going to do more from every single position. But before we get into the rest of those, give us a thumbs up right here on YouTube. If you're watching and you aren't subscribed yet, please subscribe and of course leave a comment. We love comments. We respond to every single comment. It helps the show reach new people. And if you're listening on Apple Podcasts, please leave us a review. We've seen some of these reviews coming through lately. They really help the show grow. Best thing you could do on YouTube is to subscribe, like and comment. Best thing you could do on podcasts is to leave a review. So we appreciate everybody who is listening loyally and helping this show grow. Now let's go ahead and talk about my guy Joey, Another wide receiver that we're starting the show with. Ricky Piersoll. Drafted the same year as Brian Thomas Jr. Another first round pick and had a rookie season that got off to a pretty tumultuous start. He was shot in the chest in the preseason and ended up missing the first half of his rookie year in year two. Dealt with a ton of injuries, had some preseason injuries, seem to have gotten past those. Gets injured again in week four. But what we saw in that little taste of action before the Week 4 injury, 8 targets per game, 93.7 receiving yards per game. He was hyper efficient with the opportunities. That's what we hope from Ricky Pearsall. Like this is a guy who's drafted in round one, has a 9.91 relative athletic score. That means that among all receivers drafted since 1987, he, he is a 99th percentile athlete. The ceiling here is so high and this is very much so. A new look 49ers team. Debo Samuel is gone. Brandon Aiyuk is presumably gone at some point we imagine we'll wait to see how that whole situation transpires. George Kittle and Mike Evans, they will both be 32 years old or I'm sorry will be 33 years old this year and one of them is coming back from an achilles tear. Christian McCaffrey is 30 years old. I mean this is very much so. A changing of the guard happening sometime soon, soon here in San Francisco. Not only did they draft Ricky Pierce all two years ago, but we saw 33rd overall pick this year. They used on Devon Strip. I'm sorry Dijon Stribling so they're trying to get younger at wide receiver and I think this is the fear here is that Stribling was drafted to replace Ricky Pearsall. Similar size, 9.57 relative athletic score. Another very hyper athletic individual who can do a lot of the off ball things. Catching the ball across the middle yards after catch the. There's similar profiles here. So I think that's where the fear is a little bit. And when you talk about make or break seasons, which is the theme of this show, this really is a make or break year for Ricky Piersoll. People already had some fears about him getting drafted a little bit older and then we see two years of injuries. Not a whole lot of production here. If he gets off to a slow start, he is going to tailspin in dynasty. But if he can start the season hot and show us what he did at the top of last season, then I think we see him just spike in value. So this is one of the more volatile players to go out there and right now you know, he could be the wide receiver one on the San Francisco 49ers. He could fall to fifth or sixth in the pecking order. We don't really know. But I absolutely look at this as a make or break season for Ricky Piersol. The last thing I want to say about him, he is 100% picked up an injury prone label. If you look dating back to the start of his college career, he's only had one football related injury and that was last year, the knee ankle that bothered him for the majority of the season. Before that, you know, a gunshot, that's not a football related injury. He had a clean bill of health during his entire college career. So he's got this injury prone label now. But I don't think it's necessarily fair. He's still a guy that I look at the profile, the athleticism, the draft capital, the little flashes of production we've seen whether it be rookie season against Detroit or the first three games last year. I am still holding on to hope for Ricky Piersoll but I also realize that the floor here can get really, really low if he doesn't get out the gate. Hot.
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Yeah, with Ricky Piercel I feel like adversity has kind of always surrounded him and like loud negative noises too. I mean you talk about the gunshot wound but then last year in San Francisco, if you look back at 49ers teams from the past, you know, decade, it's there's always seems to be the role players but last year was kind of like we've got CMC but we're not really sure what else is going to go on. Kittle got hurt. There's a bunch of trouble with iuk. That noise seems to be gone this year they've got a true leader in Mike Evans. I will shout his names from the roof, from the mountaintops for to the end of time. Great player, great person to have in a locker room. But Kittle's coming back healthy. I feel like PE also, also is not going to be depended on to be the first option in just his second year. But something I wanted to mention when we were talking about Brian Thomas Jr. Is something you kind of alluded to like we don't have patience for these wide receivers anymore. And it used to be that all wide receivers had a three year. Yep, year three breakout. They have a three year leash and it's like we've thrown that to the wind and you know, maybe we need to bring that back especially for people like Ricky Pearsall.
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Yeah. And I think we just frankly got spoiled. Like I really think that was it. Like we saw Justin Jefferson immediately just like elite production. Jamar Chase immediately giving us elite production. But the year three breakout is still very much so alive and well. Just Last year Jackson's fifth Jigma broke out for almost 1800 yards after having 1100 yards in year two and 620 yards in year one. So these year three breakouts are still worth betting on. Brian Thomas Jr. A potential year three breakout. Ricky Pierce Hall, a potential year three breakout. Marvin Harrison Jr. Who now mentioned twice, not an official guy on the show but Marvin Harrison Jr. Probably an honorable mention for a make or break season. Another potential year three breakout. So here we are, just two players in two and a half if we count Marvin Harrison Jr. And we've already found some sort of theme. But Joey, let's keep working on the list. We talked about some wide receivers here who are some quarterbacks going into make or break years.
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Yeah, I mean this is the make or break year for Bryce Young for me. I mean he's going into his fourth season and I'm going to list some number one overall quarterbacks taken in the last 10 years with the exception of Cam Ward because we're going to give him a little bit more time. Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams and of course Bryce Young. Now all of these quarterbacks except for Baker Mayfield had QB1 production by their second year. Baker Mayfield accomplished it once he got out of Cleveland in year six. So Bryce Young's definitely overdue at this point to return that value that when a team invests that number one overall pick in you, you're going to return. Bryce Young's best season was last year. He was the QB19, which is not the most fantastic finish, I agree. But he has slowly finished better each and every season. Even if we don't like the results from Carolina, they are kind of doing the right things. Last year they brought in Tedrell and McMillan which proved to be truly a wide receiver. One for them finishes a wide receiver 15 had a fantastic rookie season. I expect great things from him this year as well. One of the big problems of Bryce Young is when there's pressure, he can't move around in the pocket very well. So this year the Panthers went out and got Monroe Freeling which was the second rated offensive tackle in this draft class. So they're getting some protection for Bryce Young. They also got Chris Brazel and I love Brazel. He's somebody at Tennessee I thought played really well, strong bodied wide receiver. They've tried to make this dart throw in the past with Xavier Leggette and Jonathan Mingo. I think they got the right guy this time. So they're surrounding Young with the right pieces. But that kind of does feel like the last shot on him. Last year though, from week 11 till the end of the season he was the QB12. So he finishes the top 12 quarterback 17.9 fantasy points per game with two games in a row over 23 fantasy points. Only one game in single digits. Because of the pedigree of the draft capital. I would take one last dart throw on him. But I'm not just any dart throw. It needs to be somebody proven in front of him. If I'm taking Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or in my opinion Matthew Stafford, somebody that I know is going to give me production, I'll take Bryce Young, put him on my bench just to see what he does.
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And we saw two years ago Bryce Young was the top scoring quarterback over the final month of the season. So like it is there. I think the biggest problem is that in this Dave Canalis offense if they can run the ball, they are going to run the ball. So I think that's been the issue is the volume just hasn't been there for Bryce Young. Like when he's asked to throw the ball, he can do it efficiently, he can do it well and this is absolutely a make or break season for him. But also we have seen like whether it's correlation or causation, these Number one overall picks typically get a longer leash than a lot of other players do. I was with Sigmund Blum last week and he made a quote that is just so succinct, but it just makes like it's a good point to make is that first round players have to prove that they're bad and late round players have to prove that they're good. Bryce Young hasn't really proved that he's bad yet. He may not have proved that he's good, but he's still good enough to keep starting. And I did a big study a couple of off seasons ago and I've updated the numbers since. But if you look like dating back to the early 90s, I'm talking Drew Bledsoe when he went number one overall in 1993. If you look at every single number one overall pick since then, 83% of them have started five plus seasons. I mean these guys get the opportunity. And of course we remember the misses, we remember Tim Couch, David Carr, jamarcus Russell. But if you look through the list of every other number one overall pick since the start of the 1990s, they've all been pretty good. Kind of like the worst case scenario. Sam Bradford dealt with some injuries, Jameis Winston might not have held a long term job, but when he did, he was still giving us good production. And outside of those two guys, since jamarcus Russell, the biggest bus that we can remember, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and then of course Bryce Young and Caleb Williams and now Fernando Mendoza and Cam Ward join that mix as well. But that is a pretty good history. I think the NFL has gotten a little bit better at drafting these guys. Number one overall, getting the safe guys that we know are going to be able to start long term. So I'm completely with you on Bryce Young and my guy, another make or break quarterback. Gotta be honest, don't feel great about this one. But sometimes it just comes down to cost. And right now Desean Watson is still 30 years old, which technically if you look at the age apex for a quarterback, he's still within that peak. We usually stretch that out to about 32, 33 years old. So Deshaun Watson theoretically is still within that age apex that we want to see and he looked awful in Kevin Stefanski offense. There is no way around that. One of the worst quarterbacks that we have seen over the last few years. But I have a a lot more faith in Todd Monken than I ever had in Kevin Stefanski, what we saw with Todd Monkin his first year in Baltimore when he went there. Lamar Jackson immediately career high in passing yards. Career high and passing touchdowns. And if you look at the offense that they're building here in Cleveland, I see some parallels. They drafted Casey Concepcion, who can do a lot of the same things that say flowers can. They drafted Denzel Boston. They've already got Harold Fannin there who kind of does the Isaiah likely stuff. And they drafted Joe Royer, who can do a lot of the Mark Andrews stuff. Jerry Judy's there, Quinte. John Judkins is there. They spent the ninth overall pick on Spencer Fino. They sneakily had themselves a very good offense where I know it's the Browns and we want to laugh at the Browns and talk about how bad they are and they might be, but the off season made some serious investments in the offense this year. And if you look back to Sean Watson, his first four years in the NFL when he was with the Houston Texans, he was a top five quarterback each of those four seasons. Since then, he's played in just 19 games over the last five years. There's a very good chance that he is just complete dust at this point. But he's going to start this year in what should be an improved offense and he is free in drafts. I mean, I am literally getting this guy in round 20 of best ball drafts. After Justin Fields is going off the board, after Carson Beck and Clay Clubnick are going off the board, I'm just getting DeSean Watson for free. Joey, is there another quarterback going that late in drafts that has any semblance of upside similar to what you could potentially get with Deshaun Watson?
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That late? No. Unless Andrew Luck is going to make a miraculous return to the league, I do not think is going to happen.
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Just side with the Arizona Cardinals.
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That's what it would take to get somebody that late with that amount of upside. You kind of hit all the points like I'm not going to push back really because he is free. So there's not much risk baked in. I'm just one of the guys that's going to let other managers in my league take that risk. I brought something to the table last week in a company chat. I said it's been 1947 days since DeSean Watson had two 20 point fantasy games back to back. We know he can do it though, is the thing. But that large gap, I mean it's over five years. I'm just willing just to sit back and and maybe be Wrong on this. But it, like you said, it is risk free and it's free at the end of a draft. So. But this is truly like a make or break year for him if he does not do it this year. Like, and I think the Browns are there too. Like, I don't even think it's going to be the year. I think we're going to know in the first five to six weeks if this isn't working out. We're going to see Dylan Gabriel, we're going to see Shador Sanders and Taylor Green. Please end up winning that job out there. Please.
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Yeah, and I think you're right. I mean, and that's why, like we're talking about make or break guys. If he starts the season looking like he did last time we saw him on a football field, he's getting benched a month in and then they'll eat that dead cap and they'll move on for him. But what if he does look like 80% of the player he was in Houston in this new offense with new playmakers and improved offensive line. So, you know, I talk about best ball. I'm getting him in round 20 of best ball drafts. I just traded the 308 rookie pick for Deshaun Watson in a dynasty league, like on the clock. Somebody wanted to pick and I said, you know, I just threw it out there in a super flex league where like I might get nothing at all. I might just be getting, you know, rotational QB2 play that I can get by in bye weeks. But if DeSean Watson goes out there, let's just say theoretically, Deshaun Watson goes out, puts up 20 fantasy points in week one, 22 points in fantasy in week two, 19 points in week three. He is immediately going to vault back up into that elite tier of super flex quarterbacks. I mean, people know the upside here with desean Watson. They saw it early in his career. So I just feel like there's almost no risk at this point. All of that risk is baked into his costs. You can get him for close to free. At worst, you're paying a 20th round price tag in best ball, a late third round pick in your rookie draft. And at best you're getting a guy who could still be a QB one in fantasy. So all risk or I'm sorry, no risk and all upside here in my opinion.
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And from a strategy point of view, you bring up a really good point. Like you spend a last round pick on a Sean Watson, he comes out and he has a good start to the season. We've already got yourself a proven starter in front of him. Trade him away, like send him out pack and once the sky the value is high on him and I think in a way that's kind of what you did. You waited for that news to come through and you told me knowing I don't like Deshaun Watson, you're like I sent him, I got him for a third and I was like, well yeah, 20, 26 third. That's a great deal. I would do that.
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Yeah. Yeah. I mean regardless of how you feel about him, like if you can get a potentially starting quarterback for a third round pick, I mean that's just, just good business. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile.
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All right, we are back with Joey Wright. We already talked about some wide receivers and quarterbacks who have make or break years and now we're going to talk about some running backs, tight ends and then a few honorable mentions at the end. Joey who is a running back that is approaching a Make or break season, in your opinion?
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Yeah, I feel like all the people we've talked about before, before this have been kind of like downers in a way. Like, oh, man, I don't really want to talk about this guy. But Tony Pollard, like, he kind of did get a little lucky in this last year's draft. Arizona taking Jeremiah Love right before Tennessee might have taken them. We'll never know. So Pollard kind of got one more year to prove it and possibly get another contract. I'm not going to say as Tennessee's running back of the future. I'll just say the running back of now for maybe the next couple years, maybe extend a contract for him. Back to back seasons for Tony Pollard with top 24 running back work, over a thousand rushing yards in four straight seasons, including both years at Tennessee. Saul's receiving work take a dip once he left Dallas. This is kind of the biggest knock on him, I would say. They've got Taji Spears when he's healthy, they like to use him. He still might get some usage there. More realistically though, I think 2026 is the year we see Pollard audition for his next team. Tennessee may have missed on Love, but they brought in Nicholas Singleton, who I do think is the running back of the future for the Titans. But the good news for Pollard is Singleton did break his foot in the Senior bowl, so he'll most likely be eased into the season. This should give Pollard enough time to, you know, like I said, audition for the role, but be a productive asset for your fantasy team. I still like Pollard as kind of one of the last running backs in the running back dead zone, as people are calling it. And if you want to say that Pollard's already in your dead zone, listen, I get it. But he's given us RB2 production, you know, pretty much every year he's been out there, so I still like him. But as the season gets longer in the tooth, if Pollard doesn't at least produce the way he has in the last few seasons, I could see them working Nicholas Singleton into the offense a little bit more. Maybe it moves into a timeshare and that fourth or fifth round pick you spend on Pollard starts to look really bad. But if he's up to speed at the beginning of the season, he looks like he has in the past. I think we're okay. But like I said, I do think he's auditioned for his next team, but I still think he's productive for this year.
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Yeah, Pollard has been one of those players. I'm going to be Talking a lot about best ball because I have been ripping a lot of best ball drafts lately. Tis the season. Be sure to sign up and, you know, wherever you like to play your best ball. We enjoy that quite a bit. But he's been one of those guys that I've been drafting a lot. And then after drafting him and a bunch of teams, then I decided to look a little bit closer at his contract. And that made me a little bit nervous, Joey, because they have it set up, you know, so many times. There's the pre June 1st designation where they can save money. They didn't really set that up with Pollard. They could actually Release him after June 1st and still save $7.25 million. Only have to eat $2 million in dead cap and then have them completely off the books in 2027. So I do wonder if there is a part of, hey, let's see how Nicholas Singleton looks before we have to make a decision here. So once they get all these guys in camp, see how Pollard looks, see how Tajie Spears looks, see how Singleton looks. And if they say, hey, Singleton isn't there yet, we can still lean on Pollard and it might just be, hey, Singleton is young and he healed up quickly and he looks great. And now we can save $7.25 million and we already have our running back of the future. I think that's my major fear with Pollard, is that he could end up being a late cap casualty. But if they keep him on the books, that tells me that they probably aren't 100% confident in Singleton's recovery, that he is more of a 2027 pick. So I'm going to be paying close attention to this. If we get through the first couple of weeks of training camp and Tony Pollard is still a Tennessee Titan, then I think you just push the chips all in and you keep drafting him and hope that he does what he's done the last two years.
- [29:04]
B
Absolutely. Yeah. I like that you brought the contract up. That was one of the ones I was having trouble kind of reading the situation. I like how you broke that down there, though.
- [29:12]
A
Yeah. And sometimes they set it up where they have to make the decision early for whatever reason, the way that they restructured Pollard's contract, they don't have to make that pre June 1st decision. So we could still see him get released, you know, during training camp. So it'll. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. But a guy I'm going to talk about, Joey, and this might feel kind of surprising because I think a lot of people say that, like, oh, he made it, he got the contract. What do you mean? This is a make or break year for Kenneth Walker. He's the Kansas City Chiefs RB1 wheels up. I'm drafting him at the 1, 2 turn. And I get that. I'm not going to say you shouldn't do that. But Kenneth Walker's career has been a little bit interesting so far and it hasn't been quite as sunshine and roses as I think people who are drafting him make it out to be. We saw in 2022, that rookie season, he had the RB16 finish. He averaged a little over 12 points per game. There were reasons to be excited. And then of course, going into year two, the team went out and they spent a second round pick on Zach Charbonnet and his points per game dropped a little bit. He was the RB19 that year and people started to worry a little bit. 2024, boom, 14.4 points per game. But he missed six games with injuries. So now we've got this like, you know, feel good about his rookie season, not feeling great after year two with Charbonne Mix after year three, then he picks up this injury prone label. It wasn't just six games, it was six games over three different injuries. Like it was these nagging injuries that kept popping up. Then in 2025 last year, we saw points per game fell dramatically. He was outscored by Zach Charbonnet, got just 10.4 fantasy points per game. But with the recency bias, we see what he did down the stretch in the super bowl. You know, ends up having a great run in the playoffs. Looks like a potential RB1 of the future. But in a very, very small sample size and 2026, we presume that he is going to have the backfield for himself in Kansas City. The Flashes have been there his entire career, but we have never seen Kenneth Walker put together any sort of consistent play. He's going to have the chance to be that guy in Kansas City this year. But I think if he comes out of the gate with a committee approach, which we have seen Andy Reid has done a lot through his NFL career with running backs, I don't think we're going to hold on to patience for Kenneth Walker going into his fifth season. I think if he comes out in a committee, the markets are going to sour on very, very quickly. So, you know, follow the money is what we hear all the time. That's a dangerous game. Following the money is how he ended up drafting Johnny Smith in New England and how he ended up drafting Kenny Golladay with the New York Giants. It's not always that clear. I get it. He's still just 25 years old and there's hope that he can elevate himself into being one of those elite running back producers. But also, I don't think this is as clear cut as people have made it out to be. This could potentially be a situation where everybody thinks Walker is just going to skyrocket in value in the season kicks off and. And there's actually a possibility that his market value falls quite a bit.
- [32:05]
B
Yeah. You mentioned earlier in the show, like, leave us comments. And you've been leaving comments, so you know how much I don't like Kenneth Walker going into this year. Dave kind of hit all the points. Andy Reid is kind of committed to being a committee for his running backs. And this great finish that we saw from Kenneth Walker last year, I think a lot of it was in part because of what Zach Charbonnet did before that that allowed the mileage to kind of be low there for Kenneth Walker to have such a breakout there. You know, I think my biggest problem with Walker, though, is where I've already seen him going in drafts. You know, I saw him go as the 12th overall pick in a redraft, and it was a real draft a couple weeks ago. And that's just entirely too early with a player with this many question marks. So I agree with you. It's a make or break year for me. But Walker, kind of like DeSean Watson in a way, is going to be one of those players I just let my league mates draft and I won't touch him.
- [32:58]
A
And then something else that we have always known about Kenneth Walker is that he just isn't the best pass catcher. I mean, he can do it. Like, it's not like he's got feet for hands, but just not the crispest route. Runner.
- [33:09]
B
Runner.
- [33:09]
A
And we've seen him lose that work to Zach Charbonnet. Then I look at Emmett Johnson, Joey, second in the FBS in receptions last year. Like, I talked about it a lot. This guy doesn't have the athletic profile we want to see, but just such a nuanced route runner just has vision and that ability to find space in the open field. So what if we see that again where Kenneth Walker is getting the Isaiah Pacheco work, Right? Like where he's getting the early down work, getting the occasional touchdown. But we also see that when the Chiefs get to the goal line, they don't turn into a normal NFL Offense, they're always doing these weird shovel passes to Travis Kelsey and pop passes to Rashi Rice. And we see Patrick Mahomes running around with his hair on fire. I mean, this is not an offense that has ever had a true goal line back. So if we're looking at weird, creative Andy Reid usage of the goal line, we're looking at Emmett Johnson coming in on passing downs. That just leaves those low calorie between the touches. Early down work. That is a Pacheco was getting to Kenneth Walker. Now, everything I'm saying could be wrong, right?
- [34:08]
B
Yep.
- [34:08]
A
Kenneth Walker coming out, could come out and get a Jamar Jamal Charles type of workload and just run away and be a smash RB one. But there's a lot of risk here that I feel like is not being baked into his cause. So a lot of people have just said, like, Kenneth Walker, he's finally out of Seattle, he's on a good offense, wheels up. I think there should be a little bit more trepidation right now than we're seeing in his market value.
- [34:31]
B
I want to ask a question. Is Kenneth Walker the best running back the Chiefs have had under Andy Reid? Well, I'll say since Ceh.
- [34:41]
A
No, Kareem Hunt was better, I would say, you know, I think Kareem Hunt was much better. Jamal Charles was way better.
- [34:48]
B
Well, yeah, Jamal Charles, I meant from Ceh on is kind of what I. I guess I meant.
- [34:53]
A
So Ceh was after Kareem Hunt. And I think. I think Kareem Hunt, I mean, what he was doing his rookie year was spectacular. He overstayed his welcome with some off the field stuff. That's why he left Kansas City. You know, they're one of those teams that says, hey, we'll bring in the problem guys, but if you're a problem, you're out of here. And we saw that with Tyreek Hill. We saw that with Kareem Hunt. So I think early career, Kareem Hunt was probably better than Kareem Ken Walker. But even that, like, you know, Kareem Hunt was also a much better pass catcher. And. And that was the difference. That's why we saw elite production from Kareem Hunt, because he was on the field for all three downs. And Kenneth Walker might be. This might be one of those skills that we just, you know, Michigan State did not throw the ball to running back, so he wasn't utilized there. Zach Charbonnet is one of the best pass catching running backs in the league. So Kenneth Walker just didn't really have the opportunity. It might be a skill set that he can do and just hasn't been asked to so far. But it is very rare that you see a guy that, who through four years, through his college career, never catches passes and then just flips that switch in year five. That doesn't happen often. And then going out and drafting Emmett Johnson tells me that Johnson is probably going to be that guy coming in on passing downs.
- [36:02]
B
So I, I agree with you. I think the argument I hear from most people about Kenneth Walker is that, oh, well, he's the best running back Andy Reid's had. And I just, I'm not convinced of that. Even if we're saying, okay, Andy Reid's committed to a committee from now on, like, is he still the best that they've had? I don't think so. I agree with you on that. Okay. I just wonder. I didn't know where you were on it.
- [36:23]
A
So let's talk about some tight ends to wrap up the show. Joey. And you know, I almost knew that you were going to take this guy, you know, peek behind the curtain. I put this show sheet together a few days ago and this is the tight end I wanted to take and I said, I know Joey's going to take him. So I actually took a different tight end and was very happy to see that this is the one you chose because I don't think there's a bigger tight end with a make or break season right now than Dalton Kincaid.
- [36:44]
B
Well, you took the one I wanted, so I had to take.
- [36:47]
A
Well, let's just flip flop right now.
- [36:50]
B
Nah, Dalton Kincaid, you know, he's entering his fourth NFL season and he's kind of seen that production dip each year that he's been in the league, mainly due to his kind of inability to stay on the field. He played through a torn PCL last year in 2025. And I don't know if this concerns me or just like makes me admire the dog in him, but he decided not to have surgery. He just built up the strength around that pcl. So I guess we'll kind of see how that works out. He was second on the team in targets in 23 and 24, 2023 and 2024. And Buffalo's kind of been on a search for dependable receiving options for Josh Allen other than Khalil Shakir. And I guess you could debate if Cleo Shakir's a dependable receiving option. I would err on the side of no. Buffalo did bring in DJ Moore and they also drafted Skyler Bell. So they're Definitely bringing in receiving options and just kind of concerns me a little bit for Kincaid because he now might be the third guy in line at best if you still include Shakir, which, you know, efficiency has been Dalton Kincaid's thing. Last year he averaged almost 15 yards of reception. So maybe a, a downtick in, you know, production will actually help him get the attention elsewhere and he can still produce downfield. I mean that would be nice over the middle and whatnot. Another thing that concerns me is Dawson Knox. He just seems to be that guy that Buffalo can depend on when things aren't going great. And he just did bring in a three, a new three year deal. And I did look at Dalton Kincaid's contract. He's still there through 2027 and the team just picked up the option on him. So it doesn't look like Dalton Kincaid is really going to go anywhere, but I'm just worried that he's just going to kind of go be lost in the shuffle if they DJ Moore pans out, Cleo Shakir takes a step up, you know, Skyler Bell turns into a great wide receiver. Well now Dalton Kincaid is maybe the fourth option on the team. And that scares me for somebody that we're going to be drafting as a tight end one. How do you feel about Kincaid? You seem to be pretty excited about wanting to have instead of me.
- [38:50]
A
Well, and again, I think it's a make or break. And the fun thing about this show is like we don't have to really plant a flag, right? Like we're just saying like, these are the players that like we are just as confused about as you, the audience are. Like, I see the upside for Kincaid. Absolutely. Like we got to remember this guy only had like a year or two of college football under his belt. Like he learned to play football at a college level. So we were drafting him for the athletic upside. We were drafting him for the hope of what he could become. And the thing is we still see that like there were games last year where he was the focal point of the offense when he was healthy and he was doing all of the things we want to see, scoring touchdowns, big plays, drawing targets. So I think that that range of outcomes is still there. Like, we just have not seen a healthy Dalton Kincaid. Like it is every offseason. Like whether it's minicamp, training camp, you know, offseason, workouts, OTAs, this guy is always just like knee wrapped up, bleeding from his ankles. Like there's just always something wrong with him. And in the few, like, like you get like These like three weeks a year where it's like Dalton Kincaid is a full participant in practice leading up to a game and then he comes out that week and he smashes or he gets hurt in the game. So I mean, like, that's really been the problem here. Anybody who watches the show knows that. I don't like throwing around the injury prone label, but it is so hard not to with Dalton Kincaid, a guy who is just perennially on the injury report, limited in games, leaving games with injuries. So I still do see the allure here that this is a young player who still wrought the position. They did bring in some other players this year. That's going to make it a little bit harder for him to get his targets. But I still see the upside case here. But I got to be honest, like, I also understand why he's just spiraling down dynasty rankings right now because you can only hold on to hope for so long. And when that hope hasn't manifested itself and it's just frustrations and dud games and injuries, I understand why the market has turned on him. But if he comes out healthy and he puts together, all it takes is a hot start for these guys to just immediately rebound back to where they were in dynasty value.
- [40:51]
B
Yeah, last year, I mean, he started the season as the tight end five before the injury. So it looked like it was beginning to happen. But I'm starting to wonder like, how much of this love for Kincaid is just tied to Josh Allen of whoever he's going to throw the ball to. And if that's no longer Dalton Kincaid and Josh Allen's like, listen, I want people that I'm going to see every week and I'm going to start moving towards these other guys. That's what I'm just concerned for them.
- [41:15]
A
And Josh Allen and Dawson Knox, they've also got that like off the field friendship that like, I don't know how to explain it, but like, you can tell just by the way that they play with each other that they're like friends off the field. Like there is just this unconscious connection there. So, you know, now a new offense, new playmakers there, Dawson Knox getting the extension. I could see Kincaid just, you know, continuing to be that mirage that we're holding on to hope for. But I could also see him taking that big step forward this year. We've been waiting for years for him to do it and it hasn't happened yet, but it doesn't mean that it's not going to happen. We also have to remember with tight ends Most of them don't hit that age apex until age 28. So like, theoretically there's still a couple of years for Dalton Kincaid to still continue getting better. And the guy that I'm going to talk about is still on the upside of that age curve as well. Sam LaPorta and for people who have been a longtime subscriber of this show, I got so much heat going into the 2024 season. Sam Laporta was my biggest fade going into his year too. And that one was when he was coming off of that big rookie season where he was the overall tight end one in scoring. But it was such a sham and that's what I tried pointing out. He had a 21% target share that didn't even rank top five among tight ends. But he was able to pad his fantasy production with 10 touchdowns, more than any other tight end that season. Since then, his target shares have been 17 and 18.6%, even worse than the already bad target share that we saw his rookie season. Now we've got these rumors swirling about the Lions talking about potentially trading him, which we saw him do with TJ Hawkinson. Like TJ Hawkinson had a few years in Detroit where he showed some flashes, didn't really put together the consistency, and then they traded him while he was still on his rookie deal. So I get it. There was reason to be excited after his rookie season, right? Like he was a young rookie, he was the top scoring tight end, but the underlying metrics have not been good. The underlying metrics tell us that he is a back end tight end one or a high end tight end two. And now he's coming off a season where he had season ending back surgery, which that just concerns me even more. I think Matt Harmon was the one that said it, and I'm sorry if I'm attributing this to the wrong person, but I remember hearing a fantasy analyst a while back say nobody ever says that they used to have a bad background. Like if you got a bad back, that bad back's following you for the rest of your life. So when a young player has back surgery, yeah, that scares me a little bit. Like all the guys we've discussed on this show so far today, a slow start to the season would cause his value to absolutely tank. I think that's the fear here. That's why we're looking at a make or break season. If Sam Laporta comes out, looks like a target earner, scores touchdowns, makes plays after the catch, yeah, he's going to skyrocket skyrocket up the rankings and be in conversation as a top three top five tight end. But now we have seen since Sam Laporta was drafted, we've seen more good young tight ends come into the league. Sam Laporta hasn't been able to stay healthy. He hasn't recaptured that rookie season magic. I think if he starts this season slow again, Sam Laporta could quickly fall out of the top 10 dynasty tight ends and be one of those guys that if he isn't producing early could end up being on the waivers in your redraft leagues by the mid season point.
- [44:20]
B
That's crazy to think about. You look back at Laporta's like, like rookie season where he kind of broke out. If you want to say there were two things that weren't developed in Detroit at that time, I'm on the same Brown and Jameson Williams, like they just weren't threats yet. And that slowly came on and not actually so slowly with modern St. Brown the last two years. But he's now emerging that offense as the number one option. When Jared Goff needed a dependable option that rookie season for Sam Laporta, he was there. And I think part of that does kind of come in with Dan Campbell having the history as a tight end like kind of favors his tight ends a little bit. But I think when you've got a Monroe St. Brown on the field and now Jameson Williams playing incredible, I think that favoritism has kind of gone away. And that's what makes me scared for Laporta is he used to kind of be the big show in town and he's really not anymore.
- [45:07]
A
Yeah, and I think the Jameson Williams, that's a huge part of it. Like Jameson Williams is now getting a lot of those targets that were going to Laporta but also Jameer Gibbs. We have to remember like Jameer Gibbs wasn't a plug and play week one, just immediate RB1. I remember that Thursday night game in week one, Detroit and Kansas City where David Montgomery was getting all the touches and everyone was saying what did I do? Drafted in this guy Jameer Gibbs. That was kind of a transitional year where we've also seen Ben Johnson, like we saw how he utilized Colson Lovell in his rookie season. He likes to lean on these big physical tight ends and he was able to do that. But yeah, since then Jameer Gibbs has broken out, Jameson Williams has broken out and now I have some concerns about laporta's usage. So he's a guy right now who is still getting Drafted people are expecting this elite production and I am just very content to overlook Sam Laporta in my drafts this offseason.
- [45:58]
B
I get it, I get it, Joe.
- [46:00]
A
We've got some honorable mentions too. And funny enough, these guys all ended up being running backs, but this is kind of where we're at now, right? Like if you're like a 23, 24, 25 year old running back and you haven't shown it yet, that kind of puts you in that make or break category where like you're still holding roster spots in dynasty leagues, but if you don't do it this year, you're probably getting cut. Let's talk through some of these guys. I'll just list them all and then you could talk to me about the guy that most piques your interest. Jonathan Brooks. Absolutely. A make or break year and I'm obviously leaning towards him making it. He's a guy that I've drafted aggressively, but two years in the league now and hasn't done much of anything with it. Trey Benson, another guy, size speed off the charts, day two pick, we get excited about that, but has not been able to stay healthy. And then of course was replaced by Jeremiah Love in the draft this year. Marshawn Lloyd, a guy that also fun athleticism, has not been able to stay healthy. Braylon Allen, continuous injuries, always in the shadow of Breeze Hall. Kendra Miller, a guy who finally started to put it together last year and then tears his acl. Of these five guys, Jonathan Brooks, Trey Benson, Marshawn Lloyd, Braylon Allen, Kendra Miller, who's the one that piques your interest?
- [47:06]
B
Most definitely Jonathan Brooks. You know, we talked about Bryce Young a little bit earlier and this is a team that does like to run the football and a boat of confidence. Rico Dowdle is now gone and they didn't really do much to bring anybody behind. Chuba Hubbard. So I, you know, two years ago we were saying, oh man, Jonathan Brooks was pretty much the RB one in a lot of drafts.
- [47:28]
A
Oh, he was. He was the RB one in a very weak running back class. Like he was supposed to be the guy. He was drafted as the top running back coming off of a November acl. So I mean, it was expected that he wasn't going to be ready to start his rookie season and the Panthers still drafted him in round two and
- [47:45]
B
so it might have just been a longer waiting game than we were expecting with him. So Brooks is definitely the name that piques my interest the most because I feel like we've seen these other four guys get opportunities and with Trey Benson, he's got a laundry list of people in front of him now where my hope with him is that he gets traded. If he gets traded, my interest would peak in him a lot more. Braylon Allen is somebody that I had on a lot of dynasty teams and I feel like Breeze hall just is the real thing in front of him and that's going to be his biggest entrance. So, yeah, trade Braylon Allen somewhere as well.
- [48:15]
A
And Bray. So these are all guys funny that we mentioned, but you know, I like living in that gray area, as JJ Zachary Sin likes to say. And all these guys, these Baker Break players have been my favorite players to target late in drafts. Not so much Kendra Miller, just because they brought in Travis Ichenho and he had the late ACL tear. I worry about him a little bit. But Jonathan Brooks been drafting a ton of him. Trey Benson been drafting a ton of him. Braylon Allen been drafting a ton of him. And I haven't drafted any Marshawn Lloyd. But Joey, can you guess who my top player drafted so far is through all the best ball leagues that I've done? Probably a name that is on nobody's radar at all.
- [48:51]
B
Oh, man, I feel like he told me this and I just. I feel like this is a list of how good of a Joey is he of his friend. Does he listen to me? And the answer is I did not listen, Dave.
- [49:00]
A
And I have not said this on a show yet. I've got this one close to my chest. Chris Brooks and a guy that really okay anybody's radar. But he has just like been an auto pick for me in round 19 or 20. Just because we saw this last year, like Emmanuel Wilson was on nobody's radar. The clear RB2 in Green Bay and we only got a handful of weeks, but he was giving us elite production there. I know Josh Jacobs has been a tank through his NFL career. People are still holding on to hobe for Marshawn Lloyd, but with Emmanuel Wilson out of the picture, Chris brooks now that RB2. So I'm talking about how with Braylon Allen, Jonathan Brooks, Trey Benson, I'm banking on these guys to kind of make it this year. I'm banking on Marshawn Lloyd to just break this year and Chris Brooks to be that RB2 in Green Bay.
- [49:42]
B
No.
- [49:44]
A
Oh, go ahead.
- [49:45]
B
I was going to say we've seen
- [49:46]
A
the running, so I want to hear what you've got to say. I'm sure it's better than me just wishing everyone a good day.
- [49:51]
B
Oh, no, no. I was going to say we've seen these running backs, you know, break out in year three, and we're already seeing the reports that Blake Corum and Kyron Williams are going to be splitting almost a 50, 50 split this year. You know, you don't know to believe that, but, you know, Blake Corum could have absolutely been on this list had he not started to really come into it last year.
- [50:11]
A
Yeah. And Blake Corum, another guy that I've just been drafting a lot. I like aggressively targeting these ambiguous backfields. And I am of the belief with Blake Corum that, like, to me it feels so similar to last year, the Seattle backfield where everybody was just drafting Ken Walker so early. Like, we knew it was going to be a split. Zach Charbonnet falling deep, deep into rankings, and when they both played, it was a 50, 50 split. And then you still get that weekly upside if Ken Walker or in this instance, Kyron Williams has to miss time. So Blake Orm right now going in like round 10, he's going after Kyle Menungai. I think he has better projectable volume and more weekly upside. So that's one to me. Like, Blake Orum has just been another basically auto pick. You know, we talk about diversification, right? Like, if you're drafting hundreds of teams, you should be diversifying and drafting different players. I'm of the belief that that just naturally happens because ADPs are constantly shifting. And right now, a lot of the guys that we've talked about on today's show are some of my favorite values in these early best ball drafts. I'm aggressively drafted a lot of these guys in 50, 60, 70% of my leagues. I expect the market to catch up at some point in which I'll change my sights and draft new players, but these are the guys that I like for now.
- [51:20]
B
No, that's fair. I. I can't stand when ADP goes crazy.
- [51:24]
A
Any. Any final thoughts on today's show? Joey, we talked about a lot more players than the eight we promised.
- [51:31]
B
No, it's nice to know who you're going to be drafting and drafts coming up with me and that I can, you know, like, all right, well, I'll just avoid that guy. But no, I think we hit on some good ones, some big question marks. Wait to see how they pan out.
- [51:42]
A
Yeah, and this is, this is fun, you know, going after these volatile players. Of course, we know the guys who are going to project well if they stay healthy. But these volatile players, these make or break players, are the ones that can really help give you a huge edge in fantasy football, and that's what we're trying to do here at football guys, is help you get that edge. I want to thank you so much for taking the time to tune in. Joey and I will be back next Monday like we do every single week. I'll be back later this week with Jeff Bellum, and I'll be back on Friday with Heath Cummings from cbs. So as always, a fun lineup for the week. And then Joey and I'll be back next week. Thank you so much for tuning in. We'll see you soon.
- [52:28]
B
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