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Deciphering Murky Backfields with Justin Boone || Fantasy Football 2025
01:06:44
In Episode 14 of The Launch Pad, Dave Kluge sits down with Yahoo's Justin Boone to discussing murky backfield around the NFL, his history as an accurate ranker, how he finds his edge, and so much more. Order your magazine today: Download the...
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Thank you for tuning in to another episode of the I'm Dave Kluge with football guys, and today I am joined by Justin Boone of Yahoo. Justin made a name for himself by consistently finishing as one of the top rankers in Fantasy Pro's Expert consensus rankings contest. He's one of the best in the business when it comes to identifying sleepers and busts, and today we're going to look at some murky backfields and do our best to decipher them. In addition to running backs, we're going to talk about his recent transition to Yahoo, how he finds his edge in the accuracy contest, common mistakes fantasy managers make, and so much more. As always, thank you for tuning in. I feel so blessed to be able to do this and it would not be possible without you taking the time to listen. Now, let's dive in. Justin Boone, welcome to the show. How you doing today?
- [01:22]
A
I'm. I'm doing great. This is such an awesome time of year for, for fantasy football, for the weather, getting out there, having fun in the summer, hitting patios, hitting the beach. We're about to go underwater several months. That's gonna happen pretty soon here, but right now there's still a little bit of time where we can live our lives before we get to that stage of the year.
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B
And I feel like we're starting to hit that kind of crazy point, right? Like as soon as training camp opens, then like there's real news. We have to start putting actionable advice on news happening. And, and people get confused all the time. They think that, like, our busy time is the NFL season. And of course we are like crazy busy. But I almost feel like preseason is busier. Like once you get in the rhythm of the NFL season, it's just Groundhog Day. You're doing the same thing every single week. We never really know what to happen in the preseason. Like it is a lot of reactive stuff as things are happening in training camp. I think this is the craziest time of the year. These, like, next six weeks leading up to kickoff.
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A
I will say we are lucky that a lot of teams now don't put many of their starters out in the preseason. I feel like a few years ago it was like, worse where you were just dreading every weekend because you knew there was going to be like two or three guys that ended up getting serious injuries. They were going to be out for the season, and you just hope that wasn't guys that you had already drafted or players that you really like. You hoped it was no one, but you knew it was going to be somebody. And so now that doesn't happen as much, which is good. But you're totally right. And it's also like how people react to this stuff. Like, we saw Justin Fields, you know, limp over to a cart and get taken off and people were acting like his career was over. And then it turns out like he was back within a couple days and it was, you know, more of a minor injury. And I mean, he's always at risk of that kind of thing happening to him as much as he runs. But yeah, we're fortunate here that, you know, we, we very. I think are. Are much better now about approaching this stuff. You and I, we've had a lot of seasons to go over it. I don't think you and I are the ones to quickly react, but there are a lot of people out there that are just gonna go wild and, and jump at any piece of news that happens and take it to the. The umpteenth degree right away.
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Well, I think teams have just gotten very liberal with the cart usage. Like it used to be like old school football. It's like, you know, if you can walk off the field, you walk off the field. Now it's just like, why worry about, like, why. Why potentially make this injury worse? Let's just put them on the cartoon to be safe. And even if he is back the next day. But of course people are going to overreact. And you talk about it preseason, just one of the. I don't want to say funny because an injury is involved, but something that is just a piece of lore from my home league. We're all Bears fans. We got together during a preseason game. God, it must have been 10 years ago, eight years ago, something like that. Minutes after my buddy drafted Cam Meredith. Cam Meredith went down in that game with an AC Altair. So we got together four that game so we could watch the game and draft together. And yeah, you just don't get that anymore. Like people, you know, maybe put some of the rookies out there to get some reps in early in the preseason and that's about it. But Justin, the reason I wanted to have you on today, you are historically one of the most accurate rankers in the industry. It's something that you've really been able to hang your hat on over the years. And I think one of the toughest things to do this time of year is figure out how to rank these running backs in ambiguous situations. And we start to get a little bit of clarity now that training camps are opening up. I think, you know, Jacksonville is one that we're going to talk about today, where I think we're seeing every. Everything kind of flipped on its head from what we thought earlier in the season. But what I want to do here is kind of look at some of these situations where you have some players that are close in adp, some that maybe have a little bit of a chasm in adp, some that might have the safe running back and then the high upside running back and just kind of use these backfields as a jumping off point for some conversations about them. The first one I want to talk about, I mean, first of all, you make all of your rankings public, so it was really easy for me to see which of these guys that you prefer. But again, just kind of digging a little bit deeper into these backfields. And the first one I want to talk about is the Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Jones last year, healthy for a full 17 games, got one of the highest opportunity shares in the league, but then they went out and they traded for Jordan Mason. And we're hearing this buzz out of Minnesota that it's going to be an RB1A, RB1B. We hear that a lot in the off season. Sometimes it comes to fruition, sometimes it doesn't. How are you looking at this backfield in Minnesota? Is there one guy that you prefer easily or do you think that maybe it's a little bit closer than people realize?
- [05:33]
A
I think based on where they're going, I've ended up with more Mason because he's the cheaper of the two. And I wonder, like, did the Vikings just look last season and go, hey, he was behind an older back who got hurt? Hey, we have an older back that often gets hurt and Mason had a career year last season when that happened. And hey, maybe you'll have another career year for us this year and it's not any sort of slander. Towards Aaron Jones. Like, I love Aaron Jones. I feel like year after year I've been drafting Aaron Jones and telling everyone else to draft Aaron Jones. He's a phenomenal back, but he's 30 years old now. We've seen him deal with just a ton of injuries. Like if you go year by year here, 2024 Quad ribs, hip. 2023 MCL Sprain, thigh, hamstring. 2022 Ankle knee. 2021 MCL Sprain, thigh, Hamstring, ribs. And to his credit, he only missed seven games during that span. Now, did it impact him in others? Sure, I think it probably did. But can we question his durability moving forward? I definitely think we can, right, Based on the age and that injury history that he's had. So the Vikings needed to make a move. They go out and get Mason. They don't go out and get anyone else of any note right. To add to that backfield. So it's very, very clear here that they're valuing Mason and they keep saying that they want to use him like that. And you make a good point that often this time of year I think coaches are trying to keep players motivated and involved and they don't want them to think that they' obviously going to end up being the number two, number three, number four back in the team. So they talk up the fact that everybody's going to get a chance this year and we have such a great backfield, but in this instance, I think it's going to happen. I think this is going to be pretty close to a 50, 50 backfield and I think there's a good shot at some point, based on his age and that injury history, that Aaron Jones could get hurt. So Mason to me is a guy that I want on my teams, not just because of what we saw from him last year, what we've seen from this Vikings offense, they are always productive. They go out, they improve their offensive line. This year I think J.J. mcCarthy is going to be fantastic. I think he's such a value in fantasy drafts right now. A big upgrade on the quarterbacks that they've had there the last couple years. So I'm looking at this offense as one of the best in the league. There's going to be a ton of scoring opportunities and they're saying that Mason might be that guy around the goal line. So could he be this year's like David Montgomery where he has some good stats but throws up double digit touchdowns as well. Gives you a low end RB2 or flex production with the potential for more if Aaron Jones misses time, that's kind of how I'm viewing it. That doesn't mean you should stay away from Aaron Jones because I think there could be two backs in this backfield that are good, but it probably lowers that Aaron Jones ceiling a little bit just based on the fact that now he has a running mate that is, it seems like going to take some work away from him.
- [08:24]
B
And there was nobody last year and they tried so hard with Cam Acres or whoever it was, and they just didn't have a talented guy there. We saw last year Ty Chandler, and I wanted to bring up Ty Chandler too, because you talk about how good this offensive environment was just two years ago when Ty Chandler, who, you know, I don't want to besmirch his name by any means, but I think at this point we know he's probably below a replacement level player and he was giving us RB1 production like he was a league winner two years ago when he was getting the touches here. So again, you know, we're not hoping for injuries, but Aaron Jones, like you said, does have a history, a lengthy history of injuries. So I think that the contingent upside for Jordan Mason alone makes him alluring and if he does get that goal line work, we know this team is going to be scoring a lot. So I'm with you on that one. Mason is a guy that I've kind of been at market average on, but I'm a little bit lower on Aaron Jones, which means that I'm just naturally ending up with a lot more Jordan Mason. So another one I want to talk about in a lot of these backfields we're going to talk about today, do have rookies involved and this one, the Patriots, we've got Treveon Henderson and Ramadre Stevenson. Ramadre Stevenson, of course, on a pretty big contract for a running back, but that was given by the previous staff that's no longer there. Now it's Josh McDaniels and Mike Rabel there instead, and Treveon Henderson. We, we hear this narrative all the time that Josh McDaniels likes to slow roll his rookie running back. So we don't see these guys really break out until year two. But all of the buzz we're hearing out of these first two weeks in New England are that Trayveon Henderson is just lightning in a bottle that he's too good to ignore. So looking at this backfield, how do you expect out? Do you think both guys are priced kind of accurately or is there one guy that you're reaching For a little bit more aggressively.
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I think Stevenson will probably get more touches than people expect. I do think he's still going to be involved, but that doesn't stop the Henderson train by any means. I mean, he has the high draft capital. He's got that explosive prospect profile, he's got the top notch pass catching ability and also I think this is really big. His pass protection skills are awesome. Like that is not something that's going to take him off the field. If anything, it's going to be something that they want to have him out there protecting. Drake May. Let's keep Drake May clean, right? They know how valuable Drake May is to that franchise and they've done a lot this off season to bring in weapons for that offense to make the entire environment there better, which is good news for that backfield. And again, another situation where, I mean this Patriots offense can't be much worse than it was, you know, the last couple years. It started to show signs of life last season. I think they're just going to build on that with what they've done. New coaching staff and some of those new weapons that are there. Henderson's going I think in like the sixth round. I like that price for him. I mean the fantasy drafters who are scared off of like the history with McDaniels, like you're mentioning some of it there. There's also like the previous seasons where you know, they, they like to use a bunch of backs and not just one, right? You look at this situation, Ramondre Stevenson, he is a overqualified backup potentially, but he's not a great starter. I mean he found himself in the doghouse with prior regimes before, right? There was fumbling issues. There was just like that overall lack of big playability that he doesn't kind of have. Right. He's a, a back that can get what's blocked for him. Not necessarily going to give you that much more than that. And then you have Henderson come in and of course he looks great, right? He comes in and he's got the juice, he's got that explosiveness. He can make life easy on Drake May. You could throw some dump offs to him and let Henderson do the work, right? We don't need Drake MAA to lift everybody up, even though he seems like that kind of quarterback. I also do my fantasy strength to schedule matrix every year. The Patriots have the eighth easiest RV slate for fantasy this season. So you look at that as a bonus as well. And if you have a guy like Henderson that's coming on, that's ascending, that's taking advantage of his opportunities. You give him a fairly easy schedule. It normally ends up pretty good for fantasy. So I have him ranked as my RB20 right now. I'm pretty sure that's higher than ECR. I don't know. Spend too much time looking at ECR this time of year. But projections wise, I don't think my projections are crazy either. Like 187 carries, 764 yards, five rushing touchdowns. But this is where it really blows up. 54 catches, 411 receiving yards and two receiving TDs. Overall, I don't think that, you know, would shock anybody. And yet you look at those numbers and yeah, it makes him a pretty solid RB2.
- [12:38]
B
Yeah. And I think you talk about the pass blocking and that's something that just goes so overlooked. And that's something that I put a lot of time into when looking at these rookies, is who the good pass blockers are. Because pass blocking gets you on the field and that gets you snaps. And then those snaps turn into touches and turn into routes, run and turn into targets, which obviously turns into fantasy points. And I think that's a perfect segue for the next backfield. That I want to talk about the Denver Broncos, because you talk about Trayvon Henderson, his strength as a pass blocker, and that is already getting buzz in camp. RJ Harvey is a prospect that I really like, especially when you look analytically. You know, he's got the speed, he's got college production, but he was abysmal as a pass blocker. He just doesn't really have it in him. And then Conversely, you see J.K. dobbins, who at this point in his career is a very, very good pass blocker. So ADP clearly favors the rookie RJ Harvey, but I'm looking at a world where potentially JK Dobbins, the better pass blocker, could get that vaunted pass catching role in this Sean Payton offense. So I have these guys a lot closer in my rankings than I think a lot of other people do. I'm wondering how your read is on this Broncos, on this Broncos backfield.
- [13:41]
A
So I still think Harvey is the, the better fantasy option. I think he's going to have the better fantasy season. But I agree with you that Dobbins is underrated and Dobbins is going to have some good games, especially early in the season. I think both guys are going to play. I mean, Sean Payton backfields, they're normally productive enough that we could get two backs that have value at the same Time here, we've seen it before. The thing that really changes my mind with this and I think people didn't react enough to is the fact that they were apparently talking to Dobbins for a while. This wasn't like mid summer. They were like, hey, we should bring somebody else in who's out there. It sounds like this was a plan for a long time. So I think they were already considering how they were going to use these guys. And I think Dobbins was going to be a big part of this backfield and they knew it maybe even when they took Harvey. And it's a smart move, right? It gives them a veteran, it improves the depth certainly if he is going to be the backup, my God, the names behind Harvey were not great. So to bring in a veteran like that, that it's a very smart move. In real life and you mentioned it, Dobbins has shown he can produce over short stretches, right? I think he is definitely more reliable and pass pro at this point. And then playing behind that Broncos Broncos offensive line, which is very strong. I think Dobbins is going to surprise people early in the season and maybe even be the lead back out of these two. And we'll see Harvey's role grow as the year goes along. And you know, I don't want to call anybody injury prone, I hate to do that but and this is a, you know, a second back that I'm going to mention with injuries here. But Dobbins, right, He might be like the definition of it because he just never stays healthy. I don't think he's had a season where he stayed healthy in the pros. Even last year he was lighting it up for fantasy. Looked really good early in the year and eventually he gets hurt and it totally derails his season. And I expect at some point this year that is going to happen again. I mean, you know, fool me once, fool me twice, fool me three times, like he is going to get hurt. It is just going to happen at some point for him. And when that happens, I think that's when Harvey will blow up. But until then, in my mind it's going to be a committee, maybe even a committee with Dobbins as the leader, like I said. And I think both guys are going to offer RB2, you know, low end RB2 to RB3 value. And then when Dobbins get sidelined, we'll see Harvey step up and be that solid. Maybe top 20, even potentially top 15 back, depending how long Dobbins is out.
- [15:58]
B
And it sounds like we have A very similar read on this backfield because I got both guys inside my top 30. But I do have RJ Harvey ahead because at this point, like you said, JK Dobbins, the most we've ever seen him play was 15 games in a season his rookie year. He's been banged up every other year in the league. So you almost do need to account for J.K. dobbins to miss a handful of games. And if and when he does, RJ Harvey just has this big play upside. I mean he is a speedster. If he can break one tackle, it's off to the races. And JK Dobbins for all the things he does well, you know, mitigating losses, moving piles, that's great in real life football, but that isn't especially exciting in fantasy. So similar read on that one for sure. I think one backfield that I really don't have a read on and I think everything that I thought I knew about this backfield has now been flipped on its head. Through the first couple of weeks of training camp. The Jacksonville Jaguars and this is the first three headed backfield that we're going to talk about. Travis etn, Tank Bigsby and Bashal Tootin. I was pounding the table for Travis Etienne, just not buying into a lot of the baysholtin hype. And then take Bigsby. Player three just shows up and now he's getting the first team reps. He's the focal point of the offense apparently. How much weight are you willing to put into these reports that we're getting early in camp?
- [17:06]
A
I worry sometimes about training camp because it reminds me of like the month before the NFL draft. I like to do like all my draft prep like way before that. Do it in January, do it in February, do it in March, and then when early April comes around, don't even listen to anything that comes out because it's just stuff that's coming from agents and teams and people are trying to position and manipulate the process. And I think training camp sometimes feels a little bit like that. Where and I don't think it's necessarily that anyone's trying to mislead us, but I think, you know, we're reading things differently. Like because a beat writer says that a guy might have a breakout season or might have a career year, that doesn't necessarily mean they're have a good fantasy season. That might just mean they're going to have a slightly bigger role on the team this year and it might not translate to much fantasy wise. So we really have to try to Parse through that stuff and figure out what's meaningful and what isn't. And there's a lot of fluff pieces. And I'm sure there's a lot of situations where agents or coaches maybe even encourage people in the media to write about a specific player. Hey, let's try to get that guy's confidence up. You can't tell me that stuff, especially rookies. You cannot tell me. Yeah. That that stuff doesn't happen or that they're, you know, dropping quotes, knowing that a writer is going to take that and run with it. So, yeah, this time of year, I do worry about that. We're seeing now, though, that Bigsby's getting enough run, enough early carries. Seems like he's getting the bulk of them, that he's not going to take a back seat in this backfield. He's going to be involved. So that really complicates it. And I'm with you. I have Etienne on a lot of dynasty teams, and I was trying to get tuned everywhere I could on those teams just to sort of, I thought, hedge my bet that if they're going to make that transition, fine, I'll have both guys and it'll be okay. I did not expect that Bigsby was going to get involved in that. I really don't feel like we've seen that much. I wasn't impressed by his play the last couple of years, and maybe, you know, that's informed too much by the mistakes he was making as a rookie because he had this really, really bad rookie season where almost every time he touched the ball, something terrible happened. And maybe, you know, last year he was a little bit better. But you look at this backfield and their gm, their new gm, James Gladstone, he talked about Tutin as a guy that he highlighted him apparently as a guy that you would go out and get in the draft. And this was during his interview to get the job. And when he admitted that, I was like, okay, this team really likes Tutin. They're gonna find a way to get him. But the hamstring issues that he's had, that slowed him down. Rookies getting hurt in training camps, never a good thing, especially when it's a day three rookie and they have a long way to, you know, try to get back into that mix and. And actually earn some carries. So I worry this is going to be kind of a frustrating committee here, and there's a few of those that we might talk about moving forward, especially when there's three backs involved. It seems to me, though, like Bigsby is definitely going to be involved with the early downs that we'll see Etienne involved more as the pass catching back and then Tootin will work his way in as he earns the trust of coaches. And I think there's probably a better chance right now that he overtakes that Etienne role than he does the the Bigsby kind of hard charging back, early down role. And it makes me worried now. I was excited that Tootin could maybe be something this year. I know a lot of people were looking at it because of Liam Cohen and saying could he be that Bucky Irving? I don't know if that's going to happen. I think the odds of that occurring now are a lot more slim and I think this might end up being kind of a frustrating committee. How about you?
- [20:25]
B
Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at too. I think the saving grace with ETN potentially and maybe this is me just hopeful is that they said they've been running a lot of plays where they're getting him design targets. They're trying to use him more in the passing game, which we know he's good at. I think that Tank Bigsby is a lot better on early down so this could be there. But like you said, it's when that that third running back is involved that things get really, really murky because then you really don't know where the touches are going to go. And if all three are involved then none really have value and are really, really tough to predict. And I think that that is a perfect segue to the next team. I want to talk about the Dallas Cowboys, which have another three headed one that we're dealing with right now and throughout the entire off season. If you've been doing early best ball drafts, everybody has preferred Javante Williams. He's been going well above the rest of the but we are getting reports now that Miles Sanders is outplaying Javante Williams and we're also hearing word that Jaden Blue is looking really good in practice as well. So again like we it's such a delicate balance of like wanting to take in information and wanting to react to information while not overreacting. But this almost makes me feel like the way that we had it where it was Javante Williams, then Jaden Blue and then Miles Sanders, we might have this backfield completely upside down in adp. Do you think that might be overreactive or is that possible?
- [21:39]
A
No, I think that's definitely possible and I will say it's a good segue from the Jaguars to this team But I don't know that this team has the talent that the Jaguars have. At least those backs. I think if they get the opportunity, I think they can produce this Cowboys backfield. It just seems gross to me. I mean if you need like that flex option, you need that bye week fill in, you know, I just don't think we're gonna get a meaningful starter from this group this year. And I don't get why the Cowboys have sort of taken like the don't pay your running backs thing and they've taken it to the extreme, like why are they not going out and getting someone serviceable? And maybe they think maybe it's just literally like talent evaluation and you know, they think Javonte Williams has more left in the tank or Miles Sanders. But you know, where we're at right now, Javante's never been that bell cow guy. And when you hear these reports that Sanders is out playing him in camp, that's scary. Like he's just not going to be a workhorse. So he's not going to be a volume player for fantasy. He's going to be in some sort of committee and he can't help play Miles Sanders. Like this is trouble. Sanders, his best days seem behind him. I don't expect that he's going to run away with this job. And then Blue, sure he's exciting, but you also have to wonder and this is where, you know, we talked about the kind of situations in training camp when people are reporting things and what they're seeing. Of course Blue is going to be exciting by comparison next to those guys. Right? It's going to make him look all world probably. Like he has a ton of juice. You know, I think he's going to flash. I think that, you know, he could have the best season of these guys just based on him potentially getting involved as a pass catcher. Brian Schottheimer just compared him to Darren Sprols, which is great. I mean Sprouls was a good PPR guy for fantasy. But again, not a true lead back like that means that we're probably going to have a committee and Blue will be involved like that. But he's not going to end up being the lead back here. They've also talked up Phil Mafa. So is this like a four man thing? Could they go and get somebody else? I know you know my buddy Matt Harmon at Yahoo, he was talking one day about, hey, could this be like a spot where somebody like Devin Singletary ends up if he doesn't end up on the Giants, right If they decide to go with their younger backs there, I think there's a chance we see the Cowboys still add someone else, and it'll probably be someone else very cheap. And then on top of it all, like, injuries in the offensive line, right? Like, they just had two serious injuries on the offensive line. Tyler Guyton, Rob Jones, like, these guys are going to be out for a little while. It seems so to me. It's just, it's no thank you on the Cowboys backfield this year. Like, Blue, where he's going, you could take a shot on him. But I'm not excited about these guys. If they fall very far, okay. But I'll tell you this. No matter how far those guys fall in Javante Williams and Miles Sanders, no matter how far they fall, I don't feel good about clicking that name in drafts. You just can't.
- [24:23]
B
Can I try to sell you on Miles Sanders real quickly? All right. Because I think, you know, he's just so cheap that I feel like, you know, even if it doesn't work out, you can just drop him off your roster. But that's not the real selling point. What it is, two years ago, like, when. When he left Philadelphia, he was the marquee running back in that free aging class, and he went from playing behind the best offensive line in Philadelphia to getting this huge, monstrous contract and playing with a rookie quarterback behind what was at that point the league's worst offensive line. I almost wonder if it was just kind of like shell shock, getting to go from this, like, great ecosystem where you just have these huge open lanes, to playing in Carolina. And it seemed like last year he was running a little bit better before he ended up getting hurt and ending the rest of his season. They had to give the keys over to Chuba Hubbard. I. I still think that there is some talent in Miles Sanders. It's been a weird couple of years while he was in Carolina, but with how cheap he is right now, like in round 16, 17 of your drafts, I think he's at worth, at least worth the look if he could pull away. But like you said, we don't really know how it's going to shake out. And what we saw last year, too, is that they were kind of switching on every single week, going with a hot hand. We did get some nice weeks from Rico Dowdle down the stretch, but by that point, most people dropped him off their roster and he was somebody that was getting picked up on waivers. So it's going to be a headache to deal with. But this is one where Miles Sanders is the cheapest guy, and I think he might be worth taking in the late rounds.
- [25:39]
A
I think my, my pushback on Sanders would be. I don't think he was as good when he left the Eagles because he didn't have the Eagles offensive line with him when he left the Eagles. And I mean, you make a good point that he went from like one extreme to the other. He went from one of the best offensive lines in the league to arguably the worst in Carolina. But still, I think that offensive line with the Eagles really helped his career, and I think he owes them a lot because he got a decent contract in free agency. And I think we're just going to see him slowly, you know, fade away as we go here, but still at the price that he's going at. I'm not going to argue with you too much there. Like you said, there's not that much risk involved. I just don't think that there's going to be that much of a payout.
- [26:18]
B
I think the most actionable advice, like, I'm not touching Javante Williams, if we're getting word that he's getting outplayed right now and he's still the most expensive in drafts, that's just a guy that I will absolutely let my league mates deal with. Let's talk about another one here. And the consensus clearly favors Kenneth Walker over Zach Charbonnet. But I guess the question I have here with this backfield is we saw last year that when Zach Charbonnet had to step up in Ken Walker's absence, he was phenomenal. I mean, he was just a plug and play RB1. It seems like we always kind of ask this question, like, did the backup do enough to maintain a role now that the other guy is back? But this is a little different with Zach Charbonnet. You know, he was a highly drafted guy, went in round two of the draft, looked really, really good last year. And then we see two very different skill sets as well, where Kenneth Walker is the home run hitter. Zach Charbonnet can really bruise between the tackles also maybe a little bit better in the passing game. So this is a really tough backfield for me to get a read on because I like both of these guys, but I don't know where the usage is really going to go in the backfield.
- [27:17]
A
This backfield makes me sad every time I see it for fantasy. And it's not, you know, it's just both guys are great. It's. It's. I wish that Charbonnet went to a different team because I think they could both be top 10, top 15 backs fantasy wise if they were on two separate squads, and unfortunately they're not. I don't really think that Charbonnet is going to eat that much into Walker's role, though. And I'm really basing that just on how the coaching staff talks about Walker. Like at every opportunity they just gush about how much they love him. So if he could stay healthy, I think one of these years he could explode. He one of these years he could have just an absolutely monster fantasy season and be like a top five back. But if he misses time, we know that Charbonnet is one of the few backups where he is plug and play, where he becomes that top 10, top 12 back on a weekly basis for however long Walker is out. So I feel like this one, to me is actually fairly simple. I think that the coaching staff loves Walker. I think they like both guys, but I really think they feel like Walker is their best bet. They want to feed him. I know people for a while thought like, he didn't have the. The pass catching in his profile coming out. I think he's proven that he could be a pretty good pass catcher in the NFL and they've talked about, you know, using him more like that. So I think Walker is going to be the guy here. This is another team that has a pretty easy schedule by my estimation. 7th easiest RB slate in my fantasy strength to schedule. So if Walker can stay healthy, maybe this could be the year that he blows up. But I also have a lot of concerns about Sam Darnold, about the offensive line there. I think those things could potentially hold him back. But we're talking about running backs today, so we won't spend too much time on that. I'm willing to take both these guys where they're going, though. I'm targeting both of them.
- [28:59]
B
Yeah.
- [28:59]
A
Because Charbonnet is one of the few backs and I think sometimes people make the mistake when they try to grab the. The backups that you're not totally sure that that guy might be the one that steps in. Charbonnet is somebody that obviously we know he can step in and do it. There's a lot of guys around the league that I really like, Trey Benson, but are we sure that Trey Benson is going to come in and put up, you know, James Connor kind of top 15 running back numbers? I don't know. Like, I think he will, but I don't know for sure. Whereas Charbonnet. I know I can totally put money down on the fact that he's going to step in and put up big fantasy stats. So to me, this one seems maybe a little more clear. I have a little more confidence in Walker leading the way, but if you want to make the case here that Charbonnet could get more involved, go for it.
- [29:40]
B
No, I, I, I, I'm with you. I mean, the way Clint Kubiak, like since the day he showed up in Seattle, has been gushing about Kenneth Walker. I think the reason I like drafting Zach Charbonnet is similar to what we were saying about Aaron Jones earlier. Kenneth Walker's missed 10 games over the last three years, has never played a full season. So even if you're getting nothing from Charbonnet, like if you're drafting him in round 10 and you're just getting three playable weeks, I think that alone is paying off because you know that when he's out there, he's going to be a top 10, top 15 guy also. And I don't want to Galaxy bring this one too much here, but there's still five, six weeks until kickoff and injuries happen. You've already talked about, you know, maybe the, the Cowboys, another team out there that might be looking to add a back. We see trades, we see releases, we see a lot of running back movement throughout training camp. So you talked about how fun it would be to see these guys on different teams. There's still enough time left in this off season that maybe it could happen. But yeah, Zach sharpening, Kenneth Walker, both guys that I am aok clicking at their current costs and guys that I have both ahead of consensus because one, I think you make a good point. Kenneth Walker, I don't think we've seen the best of him yet, but there's also the contingent upside that really makes me like Zach Charbonnet as well. So a similar backfield where we have two guys that I think have similar profiles to Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker, Tyrone Tracy and Cam Scatabo. Scatabo is that new rookie that everybody's excited about, the guy that can really bang between the tackles. Tyrone Tracy, a converted wide receiver, is more of a pass catcher. But weirdly enough, last year his biggest issues were with drops and fumbles. For a guy who used to catch the ball, he had some, some ball security issues last year. But these guys, I think are the ones that nobody has any idea about. You know, I'm consistently drafting basketball teams on different platforms. These guys always go back to back in drafts. Sometimes it's scatter boofers, sometimes it's Tyrone Tracy first. This is Another one that I really struggle to get a read on. I prefer Tracy of the two, but interested to see if you have a strong preference either way.
- [31:28]
A
So I don't have a strong preference. But I will say at the beginning of the off season I really liked what we saw from Tracy last year and the way the team talked about him and the way the team was pumping him up throughout the off season. It seems like Malik Neighbors likes him. I was like, okay, he's gonna be the guy. Maybe they'll go out and get get another back, but it's not going to be someone that threatens him. As the last month or so has gone along, we saw on OTAs, we're seeing in training camp all these highlights from Camscadoo and I know there were reports that came out even today suggesting that like it's Tracy, it's Singletary, they're getting a lot of the work and even though the highlights are coming out about the rookie, that he's not the guy yet, that Dable does love him, but that he's not in a position to be the starter yet. But what did you just say about the last two backs? Right. There's a lot of time before the season and I think now I've changed my rankings in my last update and I put Scatter above Tracy. Now. It's still very close, but I think there's a better chance now that Scatterboo is going to be the guy that as the year goes along, he's showing them enough, he's going to win that coaching staff over and we're going to see a scenario where it's going to be Scatterable as the lead back, even though it's just going to be the lead back by a little bit. And Tracy is more of the the pass catcher, change of pace guy. But again, I don't feel that strong about it and I would feel maybe a little bit better if what I mentioned before happens where Devin Singletary either gets released or traded or something happens there where he goes to another team because Devin Singletary is a good enough third back that he probably would be involved if he's still going to be in New York there with them. I don't think he's going to go, you know, touchless week after week. So if he sticks around, it's going to make me less excited about these two overall. But right now, gun in my head, if I had to pick, it's scatterable getting the edge over Tracy for me just because I think that drumbeat is starting there for him. And if the coach coaching staff really likes you, and it seems like he's a Dable guy, I think there's a chance that he's going to end up being the lead back this year.
- [33:22]
B
And, you know, so often when we're looking at veterans who are going to get cut, we're always looking at the contract and, you know, how much money can they save? But sometimes we do see players get cut because coaches just want to do the right thing by that player. And Dable and Singletary, they've got a long history together. So I think we might see that where it's just like, hey, you know, we like Tyrone Tracy, we like Cam Scatter, Boo. We don't really have a job for you in here on this team right now. And he might just get flat out released because of that. And then you also look at Houston right now dealing with the Joe Mixon injury and Nick Chubb coming back, and it doesn't sound like reports are great there. He's got a history in Houston as well. So whether we see him release and sign there, or we've also seen Houston's willingness to just kind of burn seventh round picks on players that are about to get released, we could kind of maybe see something like that happen. Which. Let's talk about the Houston backfield real quickly because Joe Mixon dealing with his foot injury, I don't know, this is one that I might be panicking. I think of all of the news we've gotten over the last two weeks, this is probably the one that scares me most because I remember 2021, when Joe Mixon had this foot injury that was labeled day to day. And we got dragged along day to day for an entire month before his season was shut down. Maybe this is just PTSD a little too fresh for me, but when I see Joe Mixon and foot injury, I get a little bit scared. And then you look at this backfield, there isn't much behind them. I mean, the, the way the coaches are talking about Nick Chubb, it sounds like he is, you know, near or at the end of his career. Woody Marks has some fun highlights, but, you know, has. Has a lot of work to do to get up to speed as an NFL back. So what are we supposed to do about this Houston backfield right now? I have just been kind of treating them all as kryptonite. Like, I don't want anything to do with any of these guys.
- [34:54]
A
Yeah, I definitely think this could be a scenario where we see somebody else end up there. Whether it's Singletary, whether it's another veteran that gets cut just based on so many things. Like, one, I would just love some sort of clarity on the mixing situation because they're being so cagey about it, and they've kind of been cagey about it, like, all offseason. Whenever they were asked, they wouldn't give a straight answer. I don't get it.
- [35:16]
B
Snapped at the reporters. Yeah, don't even talk about this.
- [35:19]
A
Yeah, don't even talk about it. Like, oh, that's. That's great news. Like, that does not sound like, you know, a player that's going to be available in week one or a guy that's going to be healthy at some point this season. But fingers crossed, we do want to see Mixon come back because he had a good fantasy year last year. Now, you alluded to the comments there that Michael Ryan's had about Nick Chubb. Like, what was that too, right? Like, why would you come out and say that? Normally this time of year, coaches are completely complimentary, and yet that was, like, a nice way of saying, like, he's old. Like, it was just, like, straight up saying, like, he's not the same player that he used to be. And, you know, he's a person. Props for, you know, being a pro. And they. They trust them and all that sort of stuff, but that doesn't instill any confidence. You know, Woody Marks, you kind of mentioned, you know, the. The fresh legs, you know, the rookie there. You know, maybe he could end up being the guy, but I don't know that they would just set him loose by himself. And I think it probably would be a bit frustrating because Chub will probably stay involved because he's that veteran that the coaches can trust. And then other names are getting thrown into the mix. Right? Like, Gewar Jordan was a guy that people talked about last season. I'm pretty sure he was injured for most of last year. There's some beat writers out there saying that he's actually been the best runner in camp so far, and that's, like, a name no one's been talking about. So could it just be somebody coming from out of nowhere and taking over here? Maybe. I think the true answer, though, is if mixing can't go, they're gonna have to bring somebody else in. I. I can't imagine that with all the moves that Houston's done this off season to improve that receiving core, to try to help CJ Shroud bounce back from the bad season last year and the disappointing performances, I feel like they're gonna go get someone else because they definitely. It sounds like no, that Nick Chubb is not the Nick Chubb of old and is not going to be the guy that saves them if Mix is not there. So hopefully there's gonna be somebody else out there. Maybe it will be Singletary that can come in and fill that. That. That void that Mixon might leave. But maybe Mixon will come back. Who knows?
- [37:14]
B
Yeah, it's a lot of maybes. I don't know if we're giving the most actionable advice because I don't think we know. I think both of us, when we look at this roster, say this isn't a finished product. This can't possibly be what they roll into week one with. And I think that's why there's so much concern right now. But like I said, I mean, if I need to put an actionable spin on this, I'm just saying don't draft any Texans running backs. I just don't want to touch this backfield with the. The way it currently looks.
- [37:37]
A
I will say that that Woody Marks, to me is going in a range where I think kind of like the. The jaden blue thing, you could take a shot on him. There's not much risk, especially in best ball. Like I've taken him late in a few drafts, might not pay off, but I think with that price there's very little risk. So. So why not? I will also say I like the fact that you're like me and you will just straight up admit if you don't have a strong feeling about a situation because I think there's far too who front confidence and front like they have the answer and they do not. So we're going to be watching this one closely and we'll see if somebody comes out of nowhere and can take that job. Right now, though, Marks is the only one that I've really been drafting and I was out on mixing before any of this injury stuff. It was factored in, but it was also just because they went out and got Chubb and they got Marks and there were other guys that were going to be involved where last year he kind of had this backfield to himself. Now this season, he might not even be out there in this backfield at the start of the year. So it's one that we're gonna have to monitor for sure and that I don't think anybody feels particularly great about.
- [38:39]
B
What you just said too, about like, you know, not knowing all the time, one of the most pivotal moments, I think I've had in my. My industry was a few years ago, I wanted to write. We needed somebody to write an article, a spotlight on Kyle Pitts. And I kind of raised my hand and said, hey, I'll write this article on Kyle Pitts. And I. I spent. Spent days researching Kyle Pitts and doing all this stuff. And I reached out to Jason Wood, our editor, and I said, hey, man, like, I don't really have a strong take. Like he's valued at tight end seven. I think that's where he belongs. Like there's upside and there's downside and I think the market's got it right. And he goes, well, that's your article. You can write an article saying that the market is like, you don't have to take a strong stance on every situation. Sometimes you can say I don't know or sometimes you can say the market's got this one right. And I. I think this Texans backfield is one that I just don't know. So peek behind the curtain for the audience. When I sent these over to you, I sent you like lists of player names. I might have been a little bit too assumptive when I said Roshan Johnson and Kyle Manon Guy because I didn't even list DeAndre Swift in here. I have been so sure that DeAndre Swift is going to be the number one guy that I wanted to have you talk about the number two guy here, but maybe I was a little bit too assumptive. Can we just talk about this Bears backfield a little bit and what you're expecting overall?
- [39:44]
A
I mean, I don't want to follow that last one up with another backfield where I don't feel like I have a great take on.
- [39:49]
B
But.
- [39:49]
A
But I really think that they plan to draft someone earlier this year. And I don't know if it was.
- [39:55]
B
Like that kind of. They got sniped.
- [39:57]
A
Yeah, they kind of like even I think suggested that in the press conferences after the draft. Didn't come right out and say it, but it really felt like they were looking to get somebody.
- [40:05]
B
It's came out and said that they tried trading up for Travion Henderson and they wouldn't do it.
- [40:09]
A
Exactly. Yeah. So I think that was the one. I think they were hoping to get Henderson at 39 and he went at 38. The Patriots, regardless, like you said, now we get DeAndre Swift and we get him backed up by these two guys and Roshan and Guy. And I think, you know, there's a big opportunity here for somebody to take this job from Swift. The first two weeks of the season especially they the Bears get divisional games against the Vikings and the Lions. Those defenses were bottom five in rushing yards and fantasy points permitted to running backs last year. Those are two very, very tough matchups to start the season. So I could see a scenario where Swift comes out and struggles early. They're trying to, you know, get comfortable in this new offense under Ben Johnson. They're trying to figure things out. If Swift's not getting it done, I could see them giving somebody else an opportunity. So you know, if this run game struggles, who's that going to be next? And again, I don't have a strong feeling. I think Roshan would get the first opportunity because I think he's useful in the pass game. He's not spectacular in any area but you go back to that rookie season down the stretch they started to give him a little more run and he was decent. He had over 50 scrimmage yards in four of his last six games that year, this past season, last year in Chicago, I'm writing all of it off like I feel like almost everything under that old coaching staff, let's just forget about it. It was a disaster. Everything went south. Like I'm not going to really fault many players in Chicago for what happened last year. So I've been drafting Roshan over Monongai. I have shares of both. I think Monongai is probably the better runner. I think Roshan probably the better back overall at the moment. And you know, it's another scenario where I almost wish they signed someone else. I don't think that's going to happen at this point. But it's possible they could sign or trade for somebody. I would like to see that happen because all the other moves that they did here, similar to what I said about the Texan situation, right where you have the upgraded coaching staff, they go out and they address the big issue in the offensive line, the interior offensive line. They completely remake it. Huge upgrades at every single position. Like this run game is screaming to be productive because the passing game I think is going to come along. Caleb Williams is going to get comfortable. They have all these weapons for him to throw to. So who's going to be running the ball? And right now I have drafted probably a decent amount of Roshan Johnson. I don't think he's the league winning type of but just where he's going I could see a scenario where he ends up being, you know, part of a committee, maybe even the lead back in a committee which we know Ben Johnson has used Two backs in the past and I don't think we've seen the best from Roshan yet. I think he could get a chance this year to get it done. Where Monogai to me still has a ways to go. I think he's probably flashy in camp. I think he's a good runner, he's got good vision but I think he might have a little ways to go before I could see him out there as the lead back in this offense.
- [42:53]
B
I think the one concern that I keep going back to is that Ben Johnson has not muttered Roshan Johnson's name once and Coach Speak Index, I don't know if you follow them, they just called that out today but like I have just been pining for anything from Ben Johnson and he keeps talking about Kyle Menungai and just acts like Roshan Johnson doesn't even exist. So that concerns me a little bit.
- [43:12]
A
But also I might be wrong but I think what Coach Speak Index said was that no one's even asked him about Roshan Johnson. So is that concerning that people aren't seeing anything from Roshan? Like there was a couple highlights that came out where he was catching some passes and you know it wasn't anything too spectacular but it was with Tyson.
- [43:28]
B
Bajan though that was with the, the second team, that one handed grab that he had.
- [43:32]
A
Right. So I, I think that the worry there isn't necessarily that he hasn't been talking about him but why is no one asking about him? Like you think he'd do something in camp and in OTAs that would warrant that. So yeah, certainly that's concerning.
- [43:44]
B
Yeah. But when you look back at the draft I think they wanted Ginty in round one and he went. And then in round two Quinjan Judkins and Trayvon Henderson both went off, off the board right before their pick. And then even in round four where they were sitting there at the top of round four, everybody was so excited because Bashaw Tootin and Cam Scatterbo were sitting there. Both of them were drafted right before the Bears picked and they traded back from that pick because they wanted that running back so badly. So that is like the big weakness on the offense right now. One more backfield I want to talk about quickly here Justin. Caleb Johnson and Jalen Warren. This is one where I think Caleb Johnson, you know I had a huge gap between these two players like easily preferring Caleb Johnson. But now this week, fumbling concerns, pass protection concerns, normal rookie things. So I'm not putting too much weight into this. But how close do you Think these guys should be going off the board in drafts this year.
- [44:32]
A
I still like Caleb Johnson better than Warren. I think there's a, you know, better chance that he ends up being the more valuable fantasy back because he's playing that role where isn't it just going to be the same thing we've seen? Isn't it just going to be him replacing Naji? Like it and it's not super exciting for fantasy because these aren't going to be, you know, RB1s. There aren't going to be guys that are winning you weeks. I think Caleb's still going to get most of the early down work and I'm going to give him a bit of a pass for some early issues in practices because before that the coaching staff was just gushing about him, right OTAs and stuff. They were very, very excited it seemed about what he had done then. So a few bad practices, I'm not going to totally flip my approach. I think they're both going to have their moments. Caleb will get the TDs, Warren's going to get more receptions. Kind of rinse and repeat what we've seen it in the past. That's meant that Najee Harris is normally like flirting with low end RB2 production and Warren's kind of that like RB3 that has some blow up weeks here and there. But I don't know that either of these guys are going to win anybody their league unless there's an injury. I also, I went off on the Yahoo Fantasy forecast recently and I normally don't like really, really let myself go. But I went off of the fact that I don't necessarily want to invest in the Steelers offense this year. It's not because I don't like these backs. It's not because I don't like DK Metcalf who I think could see a lot of volume and have a good fantasy season. It's just that this feels like the end of an era to me. It doesn't feel like the start of something new. And Aaron Rodgers just seems to bring like this dark cloud with him everywhere he's gone, at least you know, in the last few years of his career. And the combination of Rogers and Arthur Smith, it seems like dueling personalities. I would be surprised if we don't get, you know, something crazy in the media with them, you know, butting heads and now starting to voice themselves to when the cameras and microphones are in front of them. It just seems to be like these guys are headed towards some sort of confrontation. I think Because I don't. Aaron Rodgers always seems to want it his way, and I don't think Arthur Smith has a personality where he's going to be okay with just totally seating everything to Rogers. It's not going to be a fun hang, and it's not going to be a situation that I'm going to want to watch on Sundays when my fantasy team is involved. So the backs will probably be fine. Like I said, DK will probably get the volume and the touchdowns where he'll be okay. But I'm just not that excited to draft Steelers players this year because I do think that it. And I worry. I think Mike Tomlin might be the best coach in the league right now. I think he's phenomenal. I think he's such a good leader of men, and even I don't think he's going to be able to save this. I think the Aaron Rodgers signing is just desperation completely. And I think we might be talking about Mike Tomlin as a coach somewhere else in 2026.
- [47:17]
B
Yeah. And I didn't realize how hot his seat was. I mean, Pittsburgh fans are. They're over Mike Tomlin, which, like a lot of winning records. But I. I do understand, like the. The frustrations with the lack of playoff success. But yeah, I look at it and this just seems like a catalyst for just an explosion at some point this season with all these big personalities, a lot of. Even like the DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers, that. That doesn't seem like a good chemistry to me. I mean, like, Aaron Rodgers, like his best receivers are always those guys where it's predicated on the. The timing routes and being able to hit these guys in stride and let them make plays. And like DK Metcalf, for all the things that he does well, he's not the sharpest route runner. He's not a guy who's going to be wide open on an island. He's a guy who relies on his athleticism. I don't really know how this to work out, but I am not a big fan of what Pittsburgh is doing either. But you mentioned just going off on the Yahoo. Fantasy Forecast podcast. Congratulations. That is a. A huge job for you. What has it been about two months now that you've been at Yahoo?
- [48:13]
A
I think it's been like six weeks. So not. Not even two months yet. Yeah.
- [48:17]
B
So talk to me a little bit about that, how that came about. You'd been with a score for quite a while now. I mean, share as much as you want. I don't Know if you were actively looking or if you were just approached. But Yahoo, you know, one of the biggest brands in the. That's got to be a fun one to work for.
- [48:32]
A
Oh, for sure. No, and it's been awesome so far. Like, I don't want to be the, the guy that just comes on here and talks about how great everything is for me right now and nobody wants to hear that. But it, it's, it's going really well. It's been an awesome summer. You know, it was nice to have some time off. Even between the, the two jobs. I wasn't necessarily looking. Kind of every year for the last few years, I've had different companies reach out and kind of gauge my interest and potentially leaving the score. And it was never really the, the right opportunity. It wasn't really the right time. And this time around, I was ready for that new challenge and I got really excited about it and we were able to make it happen. And yeah, everything has been fantastic since I've started. It still feels very fresh. Like we got a long way to go here. I can't wait to see what we're going to be able to do during the season and then, you know, next year and we a have a full off season to plan. Because this is a weird feeling for me. Right. Like, I've normally, I have put out so much work at this point and I was still going over everything, even on my time off, but I wasn't pumping out content the way I normally do in May and June and, you know, early July. So it's felt weird. I know a lot of people that follow me keep asking for certain things that I would normally have out already. We're working on it. Don't worry. Any questions that anyone's asked about different content coming up. If I have the answer, I'll give it to you. If I don't answer, it's because we're still trying to figure out how we're going to fit everything in. But I guaranteed everyone that we're gonna have the, the content that they've loved for me over the years, including I'm gonna have an opportunity to do a bunch of new stuff. Light being, being on the Yahoo. Fantasy forecast with Matt Harmon, who has been fantastic in this. Him, Scott Pynowski, all the people behind the scenes at Yahoo. It's a great crew there. And yeah, I just, I couldn't be more thrilled. You know, I got that fire under me, you know, wanting to now, you know, prove to all the new co workers what I can do. That gets me really fired up. So, yeah, it's. It's been a really good situation. And, you know, it's no knock on anywhere that I've worked in the past because I've had some great experiences. I recently had canvases made of some of the. The past stops that I've had in my career too, because I had the, the, the Score podcast logo behind me, my old videos, so, you know, gotta. You can see the purple behind me. That's a Yahoo Fantasy one. And then I went back and I. My first job coming out of school is with the Hamilton Tiger Cats in the cfl. I worked for tsn, which is like Canadian ESPN after that, and I got smaller ones made of canvases for those. So kind of finally putting some things up on the walls of my office. It's not just a place where I'm working.
- [51:07]
B
It's it.
- [51:07]
A
It can look nice as well. And yeah, things have been great and I only expected to get that much better moving forward.
- [51:14]
B
So I think a lot of people know you from the score and people are going to know you now from Yahoo, but where I first came across you was on Fantasy Pros, you know, trying to look at the most accurate rankers, and you just consistently year after year after year after year atop those rankings. And I remember you and I did a show, it was like five years ago, I was new in the industry and I asked you how you had done so well, and I thought you were going to give me some answer about, like, this algorithmic formula that you built that spit out everything. And, you know, that's where you. And, And I was kind of surprised by your answer because you said, I just live and breathe football. Like, I'm the first one in the office and the last one out of the office, and I pay attention to everything that's happening. And it really kind of shocked me that like, that was your key to success, was just being as plugged in as possible. Does that change much over the last five years, or do you think that is still your edge, is just kind of knowing more than everybody else.
- [52:01]
A
I, I don't know where I picked that up. Like, I think it. I don't feel like I was like that necessarily when I was really young. Maybe it was from, like playing football in high school and like realizing like, oh, you can push yourself to like a crazy degree here if you want to be successful and actually win games and push your body kind of further than you even thought you could go. But yeah, that's, that's kind of been my Thing I, I feel like, you know, I have a lot of skills and I have a lot of talent as well, but that I know that the one thing I can control is that I can outwork everybody else. And I do my best to do that. And I don't know how many stories I've shared with you over the years, but have some, you know, very funny ones where, you know, I, I stayed at the office, you know, overnight working on rankings. And the one time I, I had showed up and parked my car and when I was leaving at 6am the guy who had taken my ticket when I got there was showing up for work and he was like, buddy, you're not just leaving now, are you? And probably had huge bags under my eyes and yeah, I am. But my rankings weren't where I wanted them to be and I figured if I went home, it was going to be a lot easier to go to bed. So you know what? Let's stay in the office, have a coffee and get it done. And the proof is in the pudding too, right? Like, when you look at that Fantasy Pros contest, the worst weeks that I ever had in that contest were the weeks where I wasn't able to put the same amount of time in. And that could be for a variety of factors. One of them was my fault. There was a year I hadn't won the contest yet. It was 2015 or 2014. Actually, it was right before I got married and I had been winning. I was crushing. I was. In 10 weeks, I had been first place in the Fantasy Pros contest. And it was like my Rocky 3 moment where I was like, you know what? I got this. I can do no wrong. And so I left to go on my bachelor party weekend with my buddies and we went to Miami. It was a Thursday night night, Bills, Dolphins game. We went to a Florida Panthers game on the Friday night. And I still, every night I'd come back, I had a few drinks, I would go update my rankings in the morning, I would spend time on it. And yet I just wasn't putting the same level of effort in that week. Had a terrible week. A few years later, my dad was in the hospital and he's okay. I always want to mention that he made it through, but he was in the hospital for a while. And I was spending my time between the hospital and homework. And I had, I think, you know, three of the worst weeks that I had ever had in that contest. So when you don't put the time in, surprise, surprise, the results aren't the same. So I do still stand by that. I mean, my wife jokes when she sees me working that, oh, you're just kind of like a math nerd, right? Like, that's a huge part of your job. Like, yes, that is part of it too. But yeah, overall, I'm still going to try to continue to be one of the, the hardest working people. And, you know, it's going to be difficult to knock me off my, my spot. And, and that goes back. I will credit our, our late friend Mike Taglier for saying that a long, long time ago. He made that, that comment to me that he goes, all I think about is I don't want somebody to come and take my spot that I've earned. And I was like, you know what, that is a very good point. And I'm going to continue to, to work hard and make sure that, that nobody comes from my spot for as long as I can hold them off.
- [55:03]
B
I know Mike Tagler. I'm glad you brought him up. You know, a mutual friend of both of ours and we had the Chicago connection. We connected very well very early. The first gig I ever had in the industry was working the news desk for fantasy pros. And that's where Mike and I were able to connect. And he was just so, like, gracious with his time. He was willing to edit articles for me and help me out. And after we got to be friends for a couple years, I remember asking him, like, why were you willing to do that? Like so many other people would see an up and comer in the industry and try to like, squash them and squeeze them out and pretend like there wasn't room for them. And he said, when I see hungry people like you in the industry, it just makes me hungrier and it makes me work harder. So when I see somebody like you putting out good content, putting in the work, it fires me up and makes me want to do more. And Justin, you're another guy that, like five years ago, when I was brand new in the industry, you're willing to come on my show when I had no followers, no subscribers, and just chop it up and, you know, give me a little peek behind the curtain. And I think that's what more people should do in this industry because the more that you're willing to learn from other people and make these connections, I think that it just helps you eventually become a better analyst and learn new things and be able to look at situations from a different angle.
- [56:05]
A
Yeah, I'm competitive by nature, like I said, and I thought the fantasy industry was going to be just so competitive and people being cutthroat. And then when I got here, it was like, oh, the majority of people are like so nice and so generous with their time and so willing to help and kind of same as you. When I saw that from people, it made me want to be the same way. And, and my old show that I ran for seven or eight years, I really made it a point to try to find new up and coming talent and, you know, give them an opportunity to, to come on and show the work that they had done. And a lot of them have gone on to, you know, become really big names in the industry. And I, you know, feel great about that. I. I feel it's awesome. And they're still friends to this day. And you were part of a mock draft that we did recently at Yahoo. And people are always shocked, like, oh my God, like, look at the names that you're able to get for these mock drafts. And it's like, like a lot of them weren't the names that, you know now when I first started talking to them, right. Like, they were just people who are working hard, putting out really good content and now they've gotten to that point where they've been rewarded for it and rightfully so. So it's awesome. It's such a good community. You know, I'm gonna make my debut at the Fantasy Expo in a couple weeks here. I've never gone before.
- [57:19]
B
One year. This is like the one year that I'm not going, dude, what a bummer.
- [57:22]
A
There's a couple. Dwayne McFarlane also is giving me a hard time for that, that he's not going to make it this year. And he's like, this is the year you pick. But yeah, no, I'm, I'm really excited to go there and get to, you know, shake hands and hang out with a bunch of those same people that we're talking about. So it's. I'm just, I feel very lucky to be a part of this industry. Before the show, we were saying, like, I was bringing up, you know, what a part luck has in careers and I've been so lucky along the way and things have worked out for me, you know, timing of things and all that sort of stuff. And I'll continue to work hard to put myself in a position to keep getting those good bounces, but there's something to be said for that, that good fortune and things happening at the right time and things just working out in the end and I'm happy that they have. I couldn't couldn't feel better about where I am now.
- [58:07]
B
Well, I think that, you know, you saying you're lucky just speaks to your humility a little bit. But I had a similar conversation actually on it was like episode two or three when I brought the show back. Andrew Cooper and I were talking because he and I, we both kind of came up in the industry at like the same exact time. Like I started a football guys the same time he started a fantasy alarm. And we've really just kind of been side by side throughout the industry and, and I brought that up, you know, that, that I felt like we got lucky. And he was quick to remind me that luck is when preparation meets opportunity. And you talk about the long hours that you put in, you know, working through the night at your office and leaving at 6am so you have made your own luck in this industry. I don't want you to sell yourself short at all there, Justin, but two quick questions before we sign off here. One is you can go kind of with analysts or fantasy managers, but what is a mistake make that you think you see a lot of people making in this industry?
- [58:55]
A
Wow. I know one from the get go and early in my fantasy career and I still see it now that, you know, people love their, their favorite team and they still draft players way too high. And I remember being a Bills fan and having a lot of friends that were Bills fans going back to like the, you know, even Marshawn lynch days when he was with the Bills, which I feel like a lot of people don't even think about those days anymore more. And watching Marshawn go way, way higher than he should have gone in drafts and just kind of laughing about it and going, okay, like people have those, you know, kind of biases and that's it's gonna factor in. I always think that that recency bias is the, the thing that people overreact to. Now I say that, and I'll bring up a funny story about this, that years ago I had an article in, in a paper written about me and it was the, the week after Ben Roethlisberger thrown for six touchdowns. And they asked me a question kind of like this and I said, you know, recency bias, people see something happen last week and they immediately think that's going to continue. Especially early in the football season. You have to be willing to adapt. You have to be willing to, you know, look at things anew every single week. It's almost like, you know, a roulette game or something where you can't just Assume that because things have happened a certain way the last 10 roles, that it's going to be something else every single time. It's going to be a new role. And I thought that was a great point. And then Ben Roethlisberger went out and threw for six touchdowns the week after as well. So I felt like the most foolish man in the world when I said that. But still, I would say that I think recency bias, and early in the season, we're gonna. We're gonna see it this year. There's gonna be somebody that comes out in week one and puts up a hundred yards, two touchdowns, and people are gonna say this is the breakout candidate this year, when in reality it was because of the matchup. It was because somebody else got banged up on his team during that game, and things are going to fall back. So you have to be willing to adapt. You have to be willing to question everything you believed before the season and be willing to kind of figure it out as you go. And I think tying it back to, like, the. The ranking success that I've had, I think because in season I've been willing to do that so much because I've been willing to kind of question my priors and, and really change things as I go. I think that's what's helped me have a lot of success in the fantasy pros contest and with my rankings in general, that every week's kind of something new and I'm attacking it with, like, the same process. And we're gonna go over it with a fine tooth comb and figure out every little edge that we can and sort through what was real the week before and what wasn't.
- [61:14]
B
Yep. Speaking of that week one bias, I mean, I've been talking about that a lot, like the early season bias. Isaiah likely right now. If you look at what he did after week one, he was a tight end three essentially. But people are still drafting him as like the tight end. 16 in drafts this year because we all saw what happened in week one in a prime time game and everyone spent their fab on him. So, yeah, week one bias bias is a big one. There are a lot of biases that bleed into analysis. But, Justin, the last question I have today, ask this question to everybody as we sign off this show. You can go football related or otherwise. What is a hill you are willing to die on?
- [61:47]
A
I think by the end of this season that we are going to view Omarion Hampton kind of the way we view Ashton Genti. And, you know, you think about, like, Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs when they came out and John Robinson was like this all world prospect and Gibbs was a good prospect but I think think he got overshadowed by the fact that Robinson was in his draft class. I think the same thing's happening here. I think people would are starting to get excited about Hampton, but I think for a while there he was going at like the four or five turn. He was going a lot later than he should have. And just now he's starting to get up into the second or the third round. I think he'll probably end up being in the second round soon enough because you look at it and like this is a guy who has the draft capital. It's a guy who has a really good frame, 6ft, you know, 221 pounds. Posted a really impressive athletic profile. 94th percentile speed score, 91st percentile burst score. He's only 22 years old. He's coming off back to back seasons with over 1500 scrimmage yards and over 15 touchdowns at North Carolina. And you know, Naji was there and I think that might have been the reason that people were like a little bit worried that it was going to be some sort of committee. I wasn't because I looked at the Gibbs situation. I'm not trying to say that Hampton is a player like Gibbs. I'm just saying coming in, he's the kind of player that didn't necessarily need to be a bell cow that he was going to be able to produce no matter what, even if he was sharing the backfield a little bit with a veteran guy like Harris. Now of course we know Harris has the eye injury. Another situation where they're not giving us a timeline whatsoever. We have no idea when he's going to come back. He's standing on the sidelines at training camp with a hoodie and with sunglasses on. We can't see the injury. We have no clue there. And then you look at this and you say Hampton's right into this Greg Roman scheme. A Greg Roman scheme that was very productive last year for guys like Dobbins and I mean Gus Edwards. A great run. But you know, he still I, he was able to put up, I think one top 15 weekly performance. We had Dobbins put up like seven of them. Dobbins was the RB 14 fantasy points per game before those injuries derailed his season. They've upgraded the offensive line as well. They added Makai Becton to a group that already featured three first round picks. And you think about Gibbs, right? Like the first round runner A guy that in his debut campaign in 2023, shared his backfield, played only 56% of the lion snaps and he finished as the RB11 in fantasy points per game that year. So even if Harris does come back, I think Hampton can still get there. I have him up to my RB12 right now. I think he's the RB16 or 17 and ADP and ECR. Assuming he doesn't get hurt in the hall of Fame game tonight or at some point in the preseason, I think this guy's stock is going to continue to rise. I think that he is going to be viewed as an elite player at the position, whether that's in four weeks, in eight weeks into the season, or at worst by the end of the year. I think he's going to be a first round pick in next year's fantasy drafts.
- [64:45]
B
I love it. And we talk so much about like stylistic comps and, you know, archetype comps and stuff like that, but I love a good narrative comp and I think that Omarion Hampton, Jameer Gibbs, the narrative narrative comp is so, so similar. Music to my ears. I was just on Harris football a few days ago and I drafted Omarion Hampton in round four of a redraft. And that's exactly what I said. I said, I think after this year we're going to be looking at him in the elite tier of running backs, right alongside Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jinty and Jameer Gibbs. So like I said, music to my ears. I love that take and I hope that we can victory lap this one sometime next off season. But Justin, as always, man, such a pleasure getting to hang out with you. Before we sign off, let everyone know where they can find you, obviously over at Yahoo, but what articles you got coming out where they can find your rankings shows, podcasts, all that good stuff.
- [65:30]
A
Yeah, everything's up over at Yahoo. I'm gonna have a rankings update out tomorrow. I'm working on a Dynasty trade value chart update. I know people love that one. I'm always surprised at how much people love that one. It's like more and more, the numbers are crazy on that one. We've been doing a bunch of Dynasty work as well. Dynasty mock draft that came out earlier this week with a bunch of great analysts. Yeah, just it's a fun time of year, man. We have so much to react to, so many updates to do. My breakout series is already up over there. I'll have a sleeper series coming soon. And yeah, football is back. It's. It's not gonna be gone now for, you know, five or six months. It's a great time of year when we have it back and we're watching on TV and we're getting to react to actual games and not just quotes and not just practices and all, all that sort of stuff. People can also follow me on social media at Justin Boone, pretty much on every social media site that you would be looking for me. And yeah, I appreciate you having me on. Anytime we can talk, man, it's always fun whether, you know, you come on a show that I hosting or what we're doing right now. And I hope we can continue this for a long time.
- [66:34]
B
And by the time people listen to this tomorrow morning, they will have watched maybe the first five minutes of the hall of Fame game. To anybody that can sit through the entire hall of Fame game, props to you. But but football is actually here and I'll be back next week with Joey Wright. We're going to talk about the football guys bowl. We're going to talk a little bit about Joey's come up in the industry, him getting the job as community ambassador over at Football guys and fun things that we have planned for the 2025 season. So I want to thank you all so much for tuning in and I will see you next week. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com, progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.