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Dissecting Fresh Takes After Week 4 || Fantasy Football 2025
01:02:17
In Episode 270 of the Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, Dave Kluge and Alfredo Brown discuss some of the biggest storylines around the NFL coming out of Week 4 and add context and actionable advice to them. Send your questions to...
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- [00:00]
A
Hey, guys.
- [00:01]
B
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- [00:21]
A
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- [00:23]
B
Limited time, get 20% off your first order with promo code gift. That's promo code gift. I say that's a very critical part of my brand is, like, making jokes that nobody but me finds funny.
- [00:35]
A
Well, I mean, all the best ones do.
- [00:37]
B
You gotta be genuine to yourself. And. Yeah, I know my. My humor doesn't resonate with everyone, but my goodness, do I make myself laugh.
- [00:45]
A
All the best comedians go on stage and they go, I don't care if these people are gonna laugh, because I'm going to see.
- [00:51]
B
I gotta say, they're some of my favorite comedians are very much so. Like that. Like.
- [00:55]
A
Oh, the ones that just laugh themselves.
- [00:57]
B
Yeah, like. Like Norm MacDonald. Have you ever seen, like, Norm MacDonald's my favorite. But, like, have you seen his where.
- [01:02]
A
He comes out his interview where he was asking Tim Allen all about his cocaine arrest?
- [01:08]
B
Yep.
- [01:08]
A
Is hilarious. And just like, him not caring that Tim Allen didn't want him to keep asking that. And he just kept going and he's like, so what was it like when you were in prison? He just kept going. He's like, really? Thank you for bringing this up. And he's like, so what did the other guys call you? Were you working out a lot?
- [01:28]
B
And that's like, what I love about him is just, like, pushing it so much farther than it should. Have you ever seen a. I think it was Bob Saget's roast. It was a roast of somebody. Yeah. Norm comes out and he just tells like, the worst jokes imaginable, but just like, deadpan delivery. Nobody in the crowd is laughing. And he's just like, making himself laugh at these dumb jokes. He's got the other one where he goes to the. There was like a YouTube award show. I don't know if you've seen this one or not. It is like 30 minutes of the funniest comedy I've ever seen in my life. Like, it's all of these people who are on YouTube, super excited. You know, they're the. The Jenna Marbles and Lonely Island. You know, this is like 10, 15 years ago.
- [02:04]
A
What a time. What a time to Be alive.
- [02:07]
B
And Norm MacDonald shows up to be one of the hosts for this event. And everybody else is in like tuxedos, dressed to the nines. He just shows up in sweatpants and sunglasses and just starts trolling everybody. He's like, oh, we've got all the biggest stars out here today. And like reading off of a list and like stumbling through their names and it is just. I can't explain it. And like, so many people don't find it funny, but like, that type of anti humor just kills me.
- [02:32]
A
Dude, he's. He's so funny, man. Now I'm remembering what he was calling. He's like, yeah, in prison, were they, they calling you Candyman? Hey, Candyman. Like, were they asking you for, for more cocaine when you got there? And Tim Allen is just like sinking into his chair thinking about his Disney checks going away. It's just amazing.
- [02:53]
B
Connor o' Malley is another one that I think like embodies the spirit of Norm MacDonald. I don't know if you're familiar with Conor O' Malley or not. He's kind of like an up and coming guy, but like, sounds like a UFC fighter. You're thinking of Conor McGregor. Very close. Very close.
- [03:06]
A
No, I know. I'm saying there's like a bunch of those like Irish guys. There's like, there's definitely another o' Malley or. Oh, something. He's got like purple hair.
- [03:13]
B
I don't know. Anyways, he's got. I'll just have to like send you some clips you might know him from. I think you should leave. Like, he's good friends with Tim Robinson, but like he was on the, the news the other day and they're like asking him questions and he's just like, it's so subtle and like, it's not even jokes, but it's just so funny. Like they're like, so like you used to work on snl. Like, what was it like working with Seth Meyers? And he's like, oh, you know, he had his own dressing room. He had really strict rules that like, nobody was able to talk to him or make eye contact with him. Really, really nice guy. You could tell the newscasters, like, isn't sure what's going on here. He's like, okay, so you've got this show tonight. And he's like, yeah, it's gonna be like a six hour walk. And it starts in three hours. I really gotta, gotta hit the road soon. And the guy's like. And it's just funny, but like hilarious at the same time.
- [03:55]
A
That is Funny. That's. I love that dude. All right, I gotta check him out then. Welcome into the football guys fantasy football show. It's week five. We got the flex show for you guys. We're going to take a look back at week four, look at some of our biggest observations that we found on film in data or really anything else that happened in the NFL over the last few weeks here and tell you guys how it can help you going into week five. Maybe some players that you can buy, sell hold, what to do with all these players. Dave, this is usually one of our longest shows. We have a lot that we'd like to talk about. So we're not going to do like the whole preamble thing. Let's just get right into it. And I want you to start this off first because you've got a, a very level headed approach to something that's still just a fun headline to start with.
- [04:50]
B
Yeah, I think the Roma Dunes a breakout is very real and you should be buying high on him. If anybody thinks that this is some sort of gimmick here and I know a lot of people are going to look at the touchdowns, like five touchdowns for the first four games. A lot of people are going to say that is unsustainable. And I will say probably, but he's still a wide receiver one and there is value to be here. Like I don't think that this guy is going to have 22 touchdowns. Like he's pacing for right now. But this isn't somebody who has just gotten lucky or had some broken plays or you know, the coach is spamming one play that keeps working over and over again. I went back and I watched all of his touchdowns and they've come in a multitude of ways. First touchdown was this little gold line curl route. You know, they just right in the one yard line, just ran a little curl wide open. He was able to beat his man, easy peasy. Next one, a catch and run slant that he was able to make a play. After the catch we got this pre snap motion trickery on his third touchdown where he kind of, you know, comes in motion, hides behind the offensive line, leaks out route wide open for a catch and run. We got that one where Trayvon Diggs was press coverage against him and he put him on the ground, mailbox go route, you know, takes off for a big catch downfield. And then just this most recent game against the Raiders we saw it was just a normal post route through traffic, but just a laser beam from Caleb Williams. So this isn't like One thing, this guy is winning. Inside, outside, deep, short across the middle of the field. He is really developing into a wide receiver one. And I know a lot of people are going to look at the rookie season production and like he is already compartmentalized into the bust category because he didn't get 900 yards in his rookie season like people want him to. But we gotta look at the context here. Keenan Allen was on the team, DJ Moore was on the team. And still the, the, the main guy there, Caleb Williams was still developing. The offense was broken. There's so much context that you can add to the disappointing rookie season. But none of that matters now. This guy was a top 10 pick. He's got the prototypical size. We typically see these big guys take a little bit longer to acclimate to the NFL, but it seems like he is there now. This guy can win immediately off the line. He's got the speed to get deep, he's got the strength to make plays after the catch and catch ball traffic. There's just a lot to like in Roma dun. This isn't a fluke. This isn't a guy you should be trying to sell high on. If you drafted him late in your draft, it was because it was a very mercurial room and nobody knew who the wide receiver won in the spares offense was going to be. But I think it is very clearly Roma dun. And I don't expect that to change.
- [07:05]
A
Yeah, I think the biggest thing here, Dave, is not even just that he's scoring touchdowns, but it's the usage. Like it, it's a lot of the things that you said and it's. It's that he's being used in different ways. And it's more so not even just how he's being used, but how other players on the team are not being used. Like DJ Moore. I don't want to say he's an afterthought, but he is. He's not the lead wide receiver on this team. I don't even think that oftentimes he's the second target on this team. Caleb Williams and DJ Moore just seem to not have any sort of connection there. And this was something like. It's one of those intangible things we always talk about, but it always kind of gets waved off like, shut up. Where like last year we were talking about how these guys in rookie camp were developing this chemistry and then they go the whole rookie season with things really not taking off. And it's sort of like, see, you don't have to Buy into these narratives, but these, these relationships, this chemistry builds over time, and it's something that is very real. So, yeah, I'm with you. I was actually going to talk about the same thing and, and talk about how Roma Dun is here to stay and, like, you should be holding him. And if you see. Because I know you're going to see a lot of like, buy, sell, hold advice out there, there's probably going to be a lot of people dropping the cell. Roma Dunes A after another touchdown week. You know, eventually, you know, touchdown regression as he shakes his fists in the air.
- [08:19]
B
And, you know, we're like, everybody wants to buy low and sell high, but when everybody's trying to do that, there aren't really opportunities to buy low and sell high. So I think, like, buying high and selling low, it's not like you're. You're not selling low for like 30 cents on the dollar. You might be selling low for like 80 cents on the dollar for some players, and sometimes it's okay to do that just to move off of them. And Roma Dunes A, yeah, he was a discount in. And you might be paying a buck 20 on the dollar right now for him, but you're getting a guy that could realistically be a top 10 wide receiver. Yeah, I talk about the touchdowns, but also like 27% target share right now. That's awesome. Like, he's 14th in the league in target share. And I'll just add on, you said, like, I don't want to say DJ Moore is an afterthought, but. But he is. And like, if you watch these games, it feels like he always gets these, like, pity targets in the fourth quarter where it's like, okay, like, now that, you know we've kind of got a wrap on this game, like, let's, let's throw a couple targets. DJ Moore's way, so he feels okay. But like, I, I still, I've been saying it for a while now. I, I don't think he fit in this offense. I think a trade is looming, and I think that they are comfortable just building this offense around Roma Dunze, man.
- [09:20]
A
I'm going back to the Luther Burden thing I talked about last week. If trade does happen with DJ Moore, I think it's actually in the best interest of not just DJ Moore and fantasy managers, but of the Bears as well. Man, like, get some value for this guy. Luther Burton can go out there and catch three passes for 26 yards. Like that can happen. It's not that hard. Oh, scratch that. It's hard but not for NFL players. Dave. I know we. We kind of scoffed at the idea of buying low on players, but sometimes it's appropriate, and sometimes you can buy the perceived dip on a player. And I'm willing to buy the dip on Saquon Barkley because I think that we saw. I think we've seen two weeks here where the fantasy manager who drafted him number one overall, number two overall, number three overall, wherever it was, they're probably getting a little nervous. And as they're sitting around and looking at all the top players that aren't performing up to standard, they might be thinking, man, Saquon Barkley, what a wasted pick. I should have gone Bijan Robinson. I should have gone Dave. I'm thinking of it now. Jamar Chase, Saquon Barkley, CD Lamb, Justin Jefferson. It's the. I think the only one who's really has, like, given you what you need every week has been Bijan Robinson. It's been kind of a. Gibbs. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
- [10:40]
B
Those are the two. Yeah. Top half of round one. If you got Bijan or Gibbs, you're feeling good. If you took anybody else, you're kicking yourself.
- [10:46]
A
Yeah, man. And it's crazy, but, like, looking at Saquon, the recent struggles. He was running back 31 in Week 3 context, went up against the Rams, who are number one against fantasy running backs this season, then running back 17 in Week 4, which, by the way, for most people would be a great week, but for Saquon Barkley, that's not what you drafted him for, to be running back 17 going up against Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Vita Vet, it's always a good run defense. There's. There's a thing, though, that we. That I do want to point out. Saquon Barkley has the most rush attempts in the NFL against a stacked box. And a stacked box means eight plus defenders by the line of scrimmage. It's hard to be consistently gaining yardage that way when the box gets stacked like that by defenders. And that's not something that I'm expecting to continue to happen. I know that a lot of what defenses are going to want to do is make Jalen hurts beat you through the air. But we've seen at times that he can do that, and especially with this wide receiver room, the Eagles can do that. So I do expect that the stack box thing will start to lighten up a little bit. But the thing is, for me is, with Saquon Barkley, the usage is there. He's tied for second in the league with 58 carries, he said four. Four receptions in at least three of his four games. That's big to me is seeing that. Yeah, he might be down in rush temps from last year, but he's doubling his targets per game from last year. And so sure, if teams are going to stack the box, fine. Let's get Saquon Barkley out in space. Let's start passing him the ball out in space. That's going to be so much more valuable for fantasy, and it's going to be a way to keep defenses honest. They won't be able to stack the box like they've been trying to do. Plus, pretty easy schedule coming up for fantasy running backs over the next four weeks. Denver, who just gave up big games to Marian Hampton and Jonathan Taylor, you get the New York Giants twice. They gave up up five running back touchdowns in four weeks so far. And the Minnesota Vikings, who just got carved up by Kenneth Gainwell. So I think if there is even a perceived dip here where you can buy or have a quote buy window on Saquon Barkley, it's right now, before the big games start to happen.
- [12:41]
B
Yeah, I don't, I don't know what to make of Saquon Barkley because the opportunities have been there, like fifth in the league and expected fantasy points. But just giving us RB13 production, like that's not great to see in the efficiency metrics we talked about a little bit last week have been so bad. Like the fewest yards after contact per attempt of his career, the lowest broken tackle rate since the year he was coming back from his acl.
- [13:03]
A
I'm watching him and he doesn't look bad. Dave.
- [13:05]
B
Yeah, I don't know what it is. He's still like the same bouncy guy that like, you know, can get through the line of scrimmage and has those little movements that like allow him the jump cuts and all that sort of stuff. The difference is Saquon Barkley is that guy that typically when he gets into the second level, he can break that tackle from a safety and then score from 60 yards out. And we haven't seen him break those second level tackles yet, which is weird. I don't know if this is just a sign of who Saquon has become at this point in his career or if it's just a matter of time before he breaks those off. But that's the big thing is like last year we saw all of these huge breakaway runs from Saquon Barkley, and now when he gets into the second level, he's not breaking through it. So it's tough. Like, I went back and I spent like three hours watching film on Saquon the other day, and the same thing. Like, he still looks like the same player and it's just like you could see he's right on the precipice. Like, it's so close to being there. Like, you'd see that last guy in the defense and Saquon Barkley would just get tripped up a little bit and then tackled. And it's like, it seems like last year those were the ones where Saquon Barkley would just step out of that tackle and then take off for another 60 yards and a touchdown. So, like, I feel like it's there and we just haven't seen it. And I'm so torn because I don't know if maybe he did lose that second gear because of last year's workload, you know, the, the Madden curse and the scourge of 600 and all these things that we talk about. I don't want to buy into it, but it also is weird that here we are like a quarter of the way through the season, and Saquon Barkley hasn't had a big breakaway run yet.
- [14:25]
A
But a lot of running backs haven't done it. Like, we haven't seen a lot of.
- [14:30]
B
In his whole career.
- [14:31]
A
Like, Yeah, B. Christ McCaffrey hasn't had the big breakaway run yet. I think really the only guys in, like, in the top, Jonathan Taylor and I can't really think of anyone else.
- [14:42]
B
Travis.
- [14:43]
A
Yeah, but he wasn't like a. He wasn't like a top guy that was being drafted. I'm just, I'm going back to think about it and it just doesn't seem like there's a lot. And this has also been too, like, while the Eagles are struggling and while they're struggling, they're still going out and putting up 20 plus points in weeks. And so like, to me to think of it that way, it's like, okay, if we are. What's. What's most likely, do the Eagles. Does the Eagles offense continue to, quote, struggle, or do they get even better from where they're at now, where they're out here scoring 30 points in a game and still being considered a bad offense. And then the Saquon Barkley thing going into the second level. And you and I talk about this all the time, and we were talking about it before the show, like, stats do deserve context. And there are moments where Saquon Barkley, man, he could have broken that tackle or we believe he could have broken that tackle last year. And then there's other times. Where is. Is it really yards after contact or, like, you know, yards after contact get judged very differently based on how the stat is being looked at. So it's. Sometimes it's. It's. You got, like, tapped, or sometimes it's. It's, you know, two or three tacklers that are on a running back. So I'll say this. Like, I do think what's most likely. And that's kind of what we're doing here, right? We're pontificating. We're trying to predict a game. What's most likely. Saquon Barkley is still Saquon Barkley. The Eagles offense is still good. We get some of these longer breakaway runs. And honestly, the Eagles probably continue to find ways to get Saquon Barkley the ball out in space, like. And that's what we've seen so far with the targets. So I'm not saying go and sell the farm for him.
- [16:10]
B
Yeah. The last thing I'll note, too, is we talk about the yards after contact per attempt, because I think that's like, a good metric of what a running back can do. But the yards before contact per attempt is very much so. An offensive line stat. Like, are they giving guys the ability to pick up yards before they're getting touched? And that's what's weird. Saquon Barkley's average, averaging 1.7 yards after contact per attempt, that's the worst of his career.
- [16:32]
A
Like, you say, you mean yards before contact.
- [16:34]
B
Yes, sorry. Yards before contact per attempt. Yeah, I'm sorry. So, like, remember 20, 23, how bad that Giants offensive line was? And we were just like, well, this is the end for Saquon Barkley. He was averaging more yards before contact per attempt in that year than he is this year. So that's. The other thing is, like, last year, it just felt like there were so many times where we would just see these wide open rushing lanes where, like, Saquon Barkley would just get the ball and boom, 60 yards untouched for a touchdown. And that isn't happening this year. So I. A lot of this is just. You talked about it, like, the stacked front rate. I was hoping that after the second half of that Rams game where they had to air it out a little bit and they showed like, hey, when we need to throw the ball, we still can. That going into week four, the defense would play them a little bit differently, but they just went right back to stacking the box and just loading it up on Saquon. So it's kind of this, like, weird thing where, like, defenses are saying we're going to do everything we can to stop the run, and the Eagles are just saying, okay, well, we're just going to keep running it for 3, 4 yards per attempt and just, you know, beat you guys by draining the clock. And as frustrating as it is, it's working. They're 4, 0.
- [17:32]
A
Yeah, I mean, we talked about this. The Eagles are a boring offense, but they're going to still score points. And it's going to be almost disgusting the way that we're going to be watching it. All right, Dave, hit me with your next one.
- [17:46]
B
This one, it's pretty similar to what I just said about Roma Dunes A But I'm going to say this about Quentin Johnston. He is the most valuable Chargers wide receiver going forward. He's leading the team in targets, yards, touchdowns. He's got over a hundred more receiving yards than the next closest, which is keenan Allen, not lad McConkey. But I digress. We won't get into that discussion. And you know, I, I just wrote about Quentin Johnson in my rest of season rankings article. I did this big intro about Quentin Johnston and biases and social media and all this sort of stuff, if you want to check it out. But basically, to sum it up, I I think we just had this, like, after year one. Like, you remember how it was was Alfredo, when Quentin Johnson was coming into the league. I don't know if there was a more polarizing player in the draft class. Like, his detractors were saying, like, oh, this guy's just a raw prospect who's never going to hit any sort of ceiling. And then, you know, the other people saying, like, this guy is a developmental guy but, like, could develop into a good receiver. And I think people were just so quick to just put a nail in his coffin after his rookie season that he kind of had this year two breakout that just got ignored and got explained away. And like, you know, when you see a guy jump from just a little over 300 yards to 700 yards and eight touchdowns in year two, I think we should have have put a little bit more weight in that. And everybody just kind of like brushed it off. And then at the start of this year, people were trying to brush off what he was doing. And now I think what we saw in weeks three and four is that he has just developed into a legit weapon. Like we talked about it a couple of weeks ago, like, just beating Pat Surtan like a drum in week three, like drawing coverage from one of the league's best defensive backs and consistently beating him rep after rep after rep. And then in week four, you know, this is a tight game where I was thinking like, maybe now we start to see a little bit more lad McConkey and no, they just leaned on Quentin Johnston even more than they have in any other game this season. He pulled 13 targets, but he also had that really nice touchdown run that wasn't a broken play or anything like that. Like, it was him getting press coverage, beating the guy with a nice go route, getting behind his defensive back, safety coming over, making a contested catch over a safety. Like he is starting to put it all together. And I'll be the first to admit, like, we don't see this often. Like a lot of times when we see these developmental guys struggle in their first two years, that's it. Like we all remember Jonathan Mingo and Traylon Burks and these other guys. But there is the rare receiver that does put it together and I think that's what we're seeing now with Quentin Johnson. So I think a lot of people kind of held on to their pre draft notions about Quentin Johnston and, you know, his struggles his rookie season with the drops and the lack of separation and concentration issues and all that sort of stuff. But he has been putting in the work and becoming a better receiver. We're seeing good route running now. We're seeing him beat press coverage, we're seeing the contested catches, we're seeing the plays after the catch. So much like Roma Dunze, this isn't something that I'm trying to just brush off or, or say, you know, isn't a real thing. I'm buying into it here. I do my rest of season rankings and I move Quentin Johnston way up in those rankings. Ahead of Keenan Allen, ahead of lad McConkey as a top 15 rest of season wide receiver. And like Robo Dunes, I'm buying into the hype and I'm trying to buy high here. This isn't a guy that I'm trying to say is fluky or is going to come crashing back down to earth or turned into a pumpkin or anything like that. I think that he is just the wide receiver one on this team and I'd rather buy high now than try to buy high three weeks from now when his value is even double what it is.
- [20:52]
A
So I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna poo poo the idea of Quentin Johnston being a good player now because he is. I do think that we do start to see things even out as the season goes on. Lad McConkey and Keenan Allen are weirdly drawing a lot of double coverage. And I wish I was searching frantically for the stat because there was a percentage of double coverage that they're both receiving right now, which is. Is strange. And I think it almost. We start to see the pendulum start to swing in the other direction where Quentin Johnston has been so good that I'm curious as to when defenses are going to say, man, we got to stop this guy who's torching every defense he plays for these deep plays and these touchdowns and start to make lad McConkey try to beat us, you know, or Keenan Allen try to beat us. So I think that's kind of the good and bad thing with having three good wide receivers on a passing offense that has been this good is I do think eventually the pendulums start to swing in different directions and now we could potentially have the. Lad McConkey's back. He's. He's looking good. And then Lad McConkey's gone and Quentin Johnston is gone. Keenan Allen, look at the, look at the late season surge from him and then he's gone. It's because he's old. And I'm not, I'm not trying to say like I don't believe in Quentin Johnson because I've become a believer now. He is playing very good football. I, I do have that little voice inside my head that says I still don't know that we've seen what the Chargers are. Maybe I'm being foolish. Maybe four weeks is telling us exactly who they are and this is where they keep going. I, after seeing, and I wish I had the number after seeing the percentage of double coverage for Ladd and Keenan, it's, it starts to make me think defenses are going to try to change the way they are approaching the Chargers passing game.
- [22:32]
B
Yeah, it's certainly possible. I mean, like if I was a defensive coordinator and I saw, you know, a six three guy who is just consistently blowing up for huge plays, I'd probably be trying to double cover him too. I mean, what we did see in this, the matchup with, with Broncos, I mean, they didn't have to double team him because he was getting pets or tan and there was oftentimes a safety over the top as well, and he still had a good game in that one. So I, what I do notice when I watch the film is that the safety always seems to be trending over in Quentin Johnson's direction. Like if he's lining up on the left, the safety is taking a few steps in that direction. If he's lining up on the right, the safety's taking a few steps over there. So this is something that it seems like teams are game planning for. And then we saw that with the Patan shadow a couple of weeks back. So, you know, I, I could see, I, I see what you're saying, like, where if they do say, like we're going to make it our number one primary goal to shut down Quentin Johnson, that we do see opportunities open up for Lad McConkey, but then what happens when Lad McConkey starts eating defenses alive and then they say, okay, well, now we need to shut down lad McConkey, then Quentin Johnson starts blowing up again. So, you know, I, I said it after week one and, and I think a lot of people thought that it was like hyperbolic at the time, but I said, I think this is the best wide receiver trio in the league. Like how complimentary their skill sets are, how they work off of each other. And it is just a nightmare for defensive coordinators to have to game plan for when you've got lad McConkey who can run a route on every blade of grass on the field. Keenan Allen just immediately like one step off the line of scrimmage and he's already released from his defender. And then you've just got the, the biggest, fastest, strongest guy on the field in Quentin Johnson doing Quentin Johnson things. I don't know how defensive coordinators are supposed to plan for this.
- [24:04]
A
By the way you're doing the thing where you're saying some people said it was Alfredo who said it's okay.
- [24:09]
B
It was a lot of people. It wasn't just you. A lot, a lot of people had a headquarters Johnson takes.
- [24:13]
A
Yeah, all right, let's go.
- [24:16]
B
To be fair, I said it too. Like, I kind of, I'll be the first to admit, and that's what I wrote about in my article is that like, I very much so was part of the, like Quentin Johnson's done after his rookie season. And that's what I wrote about.
- [24:27]
A
This is not common anymore. It used to be common that a 30 year breakout was like, okay, well, receivers take time. The NFL doesn't have patience like this.
- [24:35]
B
Nico Collins comes to mind as a guy who had like that year three breakout. And I think the difference is there weren't as many expectations for Nico Collins because he was around three picks, QJ was around one pick. But it does take like, you know, we see, I feel like the guys that we See immediately make impacts are just the real small twitched up guys that can just win routes. These bigger guys, I think it does take them a little bit more time to acclimate. Like that's why I'm not ready to completely write Marvin Harrison Jr. Off yet. We saw it take Quentin Johnson a few years, we saw it take Nico Collins sometime. And of course sometimes these guys do just like face plant. But I think that we, if there's one like archetype of receiver that we need to exercise more patience with, it is these, these big, strong, fast, physical guys. Because where they're just bullying, you know, college level talent, they can't get away with that at the NFL. And it takes a few years to kind of get up to speed.
- [25:24]
A
And like to be fair too that this isn't even a Quentin Johnston thing, this is a Chargers offense thing. Like the, the Chargers offense looks very different. They're passing the ball at a higher rate that they have in any of the previous seasons. Like this is not what we've seen from Grey Roman recently. But this is also something that you and I said earlier on in the off season is that this was going to be very possible because it is a Justin Herbert led offense that hey, look at that. Greg Roman will be able to pass the ball more. So this was always a possibility. It's just now happening and I think we're all trying to process. It's like, okay, what does this offense actually mean now going forward? Okay, let's go to the next one on here because we got a bunch more to talk about. I'm saying I'm not buying the hype on DK Metcalf right now. I want to sell DK Metcalf as soon as I can. And for me, Dave, the whole thing is just what is sustainable to me this. The touchdown rate at which he's doing things on this low volume is so unsustainable. Only getting about five to six targets per game. He's had three straight touchdowns way out, producing his expected fantasy points each week. And the crazy thing for me is it's the short yardage rule, right? Like most of his looks are coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. There's not really the real deep shots that we used to see him get. Only two targets beyond 20 yards all season this year. And it's. This is not. I know you had your concerns about like Rogers being a timing quarterback and DK Metcalf not really being a timing receiver. And I don't even think any of us Predicted this where we're like, well, DK Metcalf, slant merchant and Aaron Rodgers line of scrimmage, you know, passer at this point, like, there's a weird offensive identity that, that I, I don't. We are not used to seeing this for any of these players. And it's, it's the, the Rogers Steelers Arthur Smith identity right now. 5.1 Average depth of target for Aaron Rodgers is lowest among starting quarterbacks. It's lowest in his career. This last game, only two completions beyond 10 yards. Like this just, it's not the guy that we're used to seeing. It's, it's, I'm actually just genuinely befuddled. I, I, they're, they're making it work week by week here. Next gen stats. Dave. I'm gonna, I pulled this one off of NFL Pro, which, by the way, you guys out there, if you don't have it, it's, it's a really fun tool to have. But Rogers averaged just 2.6 air yards per attempt, more than one full yard fewer than his average in any other game dating back to 2016. Over 60% of Rogers completions went to running backs and tight ends. Is lowest target share to wide receivers in the league this year. There's something here where plays aren't developing. There's not time. I don't know if it's lack of confidence in his arm. I don't know if it's lack of time in the pocket, but Rogers is getting the ball out really fast. He's getting the ball to the running backs, he's getting the ball to the tight ends. This is an Arthur Smith thing. Yeah, sure, the target tree is probably a little consolidated, and DK Metcalf will still get his five or six targets per game, but with the fewest, the fifth fewest past attempts in the NFL. I'm like, I'm, I'm just not seeing this as a sustainable thing. So use this moment where he gets the big play that everyone's seeing. It's all over the highlights. He's getting the 126 yards and a touchdown. Use that moment package DK Metcalf and go get someone else.
- [28:40]
B
Yeah, I mean, I, I think like the, I was excited because in week four, we saw what we wanted to see from DK Metcalf. Like, he, he more than doubled his slot rate. Like he was playing out of the slot where he can get free releases, and that's what we were hop. Hoping for. But the funny thing is, like, that big touchdown he scored Wasn't even out of the slot. Like he was lined up wide on press coverage and just happened to have like a nice little route where he was able to get free there.
- [29:02]
A
But you see that Aaron Rodgers was. Had it like it looked like he had a smelling salt out there on the field.
- [29:07]
B
Love it.
- [29:08]
A
And just took a big whiff of a smelling. They, they did a zoom in on his face where he just did like the. And his eyes like opened up big and then that and that. That's the exact same play where he throws the slant to DK Metcalf. And I was like, see Rogers just powered up.
- [29:22]
B
I love that. Like nobody ever even like talked about smelling salts which have been like such a common thing in the NFL. But then yeah, when they went through like the rule to try to ban them. Now you see Rogers with them on the field. Did you see the, the game winning kicker the other day came out and like hit a spelling salt like right before his game winning kick. Like now you see everybody just like rubbing it in the league's face that they're doing it. But yeah, man, I was looking at the intended air yards per pass attempt this morning and it is unbelievable, man. Like, like it's a pretty sticky like team over team. Like a lot of these guys throw about the same. So let me just like, you know you've got the top of the list, 8.8. Is Lamar Jackson pushing the ball downfield a higher rate than anybody else. You go all the way down to Bryce Young who is the third lowest in the league and 6.5. Like there's a two yard difference between the highest in the league and then the third lowest in the league. And then below Bryce Young you've got Kyler Murray who is a full yard below Bryce Young. And then you've got Aaron Rodgers who's a full yard below Kyler Murray. Like Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers are just playing a different type of football than anybody else in the league. And it's not pretty. It is not a fun offense to watch. I'm sure you saw the pass chart. There wasn't a single pass attempt in that Ireland game that went more than 15 yards downfield. Dude, Rodgers is just thinking and dunking his way down the field, but it's working. And yeah, I think that like selling DK Metcalf high now. I mean my, my homely group chat was like buzzing about DK Metcalf and how good he looked. I don't know, I, I see a slant. Like he is a big fast man. And if you can get the ball in his hand, nobody's going to catch him. But like, you're just hoping that he can rip off that big play. Like, he's not a target hog. He's not a route being too negative.
- [31:00]
A
To think that, like, I don't know, 9 out of 10 NFL wide receivers would make or maybe 8 out of 10 NFL wide receivers would make that same play. You ca slant and just keep running. I know DK Metcalf is a special talent.
- [31:13]
B
A lot of other guys, yeah, I think a lot of other guys are getting going down at like 10, 15 yard line.
- [31:18]
A
Okay.
- [31:18]
B
I think DK does have that extra gear that allowed him to score on that play. But like DK Metcalf. I don't know how to say this, like, without it coming off rude, but like, they're. He's big and he's fast and like, there is something for that. But like, it's very similar to like desean Jackson. Like, desean Jackson was never a wide receiver one. He's a guy who could get behind defenses and he could make these big plays, but like, never really developed into a route runner. Like, never was the guy who was like somebody that you wanted to build a passing attack around. And I feel like that's what DK is too. And that's why Seattle was willing to move on from him. For a guy like Jackson, Smith, the Jigba, who might not have the top end speed, but can do so much more and be a weapon on every level of the field. To me, like, I don't really understand the Steelers trading for him, especially when they had George Pickens who, like, I think George Pickens can do a lot of the same things that DK Metcalf can do. But yeah, I mean, like, he's the number one receiver there. And I think that people are going to be excited coming off this Ireland game. I, I agree with you though. Like, I'd be trying to sell high where I can.
- [32:17]
A
There's some interesting names out there that you could. Because DK Metcalf right now, wide receiver 17 in fantasy. Some interesting names that are a bit lower that people might like Ted McMillan. Tedro McMillan is getting tons of targets, but it's not always turning into production.
- [32:34]
B
He doesn't score a touchdown. That's the perfect type of move that you make is like moving off of the guy who is a very technical route runner, a guy who is putting a lot of versatility on tape. A guy who's drawing a ton of targets and not scoring Touchdowns. I want that guy in fantasy over the guy who's not scoring or not drawing targets, but scoring a lot of.
- [32:53]
A
Touchdowns, dude, eight plus targets in every single game. Like, I get it. There's going to be frustrations. I also think there's the. The intangible part of it. If people are thinking, I got burned. I listened to the fantasy analysts again, and I drafted Tedro and McMillan in the fifth round and look at what he's doing. He's like a wide receiver, 30 something. So, yeah, to me, I think that's the perfect trade I want to make.
- [33:14]
B
Yeah, I would do that in a heartbeat.
- [33:16]
A
All right, let's go to the next one on here.
- [33:19]
B
I want to talk about Travis ETN a little bit because I think a lot of people have just looked at Liam Cohen's offense from last year and have just said, you know, the script writers are just copy and pasting last year's storyline and Liam Cohen's offense. You know, we got this spark to up day three rookie that everybody's excited about, and he's going to take the job just like Bucky Irving did. And I just don't think that's going to happen. I think the bar to clear, like, you know, the. The bar being Rashad, Rashad White and Travis Etienne. I think the Travis ETN bar is much higher to clear. And like, I, I get it. Like, if you look at like the per touch metrics, there are some exciting things about Bashal Tuton, but Travis Etienne has been the bright spot on this Jaguars offense. He has looked. Looked amazing. And I just don't see this change happening like people expect it to. Not to mention the connection with Trevor Lawrence. Like, Travis ETN and Trevor Lawrence have been playing together for like a decade now. Like, back to their Clemson days. Like, there's clearly some sort of comfortability there. Travis ETN can do everything, too. Like, he's a good pass blocker, He's a good pass catcher. He can do the breakaway speed. He's developed into a much better runner.
- [34:22]
A
The Jaguars are winning. You don't make changes when you're winning.
- [34:26]
B
They're 3 and 1. Exactly. Yeah. So. So I understand why people get excited about Bashal Tootin because of what we saw last year with Bucky Irving. But this is a completely different situation. Like, Travis etienne is a first round pick who has 3,700 scrimmage yards through his first three years. He's one of the league leaders in scrimmage yards so far through the first four weeks this season. The Jags offensive line is good. ETN is going to continue doing what he's doing. Sure, Bash all toot a very good player to stash with elite contingent upside if Travis Etienne has to miss any time. But I think those saying that like you know, pointing out the advanced analytics for Bash Altutin and what he's doing on a per touch basis, I think that's a lot of wishcasting, like hoping that he's going to take over Travis Etienne's role. That just doesn't happen. Like how, how long did we have this conversation with Jalen Warren and Najee Harris or with Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott? Like yes, when these guys come in for limited touches with fresh legs against soft fronts, they're going have really nice advanced per touch analytics. But Travis Etienne is a workhorse and he is really excelling in that role. They're not just going to wake up one day and say hey let's, let's see what Bashal Tootin can do in Travis Etienne's role. It's just not going to happen. So I think that there's a lot of people right now saying to get out of Travis Etien while you can and buy Bayshaw Tutin and I agree, buy Bay Shawl Tootin because I think the upside is there if the opportunity arises. But I'm taking advantage of this narrative that you know what happened last year in Liam Cohen's offense and I'm trying to buy Travis ETN where I can.
- [35:57]
A
He's honestly, I mean he's a good handcuff to have that. That's what Bashal Tootin is. But like, like you've been saying, the idea that he's going to overtake Travis ETN I don't think is, I don't want to say mean but like I don't think it's very plausible.
- [36:10]
B
But it happens.
- [36:11]
A
ETN's just playing too well. The Jaguars are winning and I think it's this backfield kind of remains more of a mess than anything where I don't know that Tuton has the standalone value. I mean La Quint Allen going out there for like 18% of snaps and then Tutin going out there for like 20% of snaps and then it's just I don't think either of them are really all that valuable. This is Travis ETN's backfield just to keep running and getting the valuable touches here, man. Like that's honestly what I think we're going to keep seeing.
- [36:35]
B
And you look like the Jaguars, their defense has been great. They are generating a ton of turnovers. Special teams has been one of the best in the league. The running game has been completely unstoppable. The issues right now are in the passing game. And I think that's where Liam Cohen is going to be spending his time on. Like let's get, get Brian Thomas Jr going. Let's get Trevor Lawrence going. Let's get Travis Hunter going. I don't think that they're sitting in the film room right now saying Travis etn. We should try to switch that up. Let's, let's just for the fun of it, let's just switch things up with Travis etn.
- [37:06]
A
No, they're fantasy managers would love.
- [37:09]
B
Yeah, yeah. So I don't think that I'm like you know, saying anything that isn't kind of well known. But I think like if you've got Travis ETN and you're thinking like I should try to sell high before Bashal Tutin steals his job, I wouldn't worry about that.
- [37:22]
A
All right, next up on here, and I think you and I always try to do the level headed, logical thing and especially in these episodes where we might talk about, you know, what, what a player could or a couple of players could do down the road. I'm going to try to keep this as level headed as possible. It is okay to bench your Bengals players over the next couple of weeks. Weeks and potentially even going forward. I wouldn't necessarily be selling them, but if the right offer comes along, I'm also okay with you trading away your Bengals players and that includes Jamar Chase. Right now the Cincinnati Bengals have an issue with Jake Browning and Jamar Chase. Like we already know he's amazing player. He's an amazing player when he's got his quarterback. And I think a lot of us got to see the Justin Jefferson thing last year with Sam Darnold and see like look, there are wide receivers that are going to be quarterback proof. I'm going to say it. Not every wide receiver is Jake Browning proof. Like there are just some quarterbacks that can break the mold. No matter how good a wide receiver is, they don't have a 14 foot wingspan that can catch everything that's within the vicinity. Like it's just not going to happen. Jamar Chase when he's out there with Jake Brown, Browning PPR point out output gets cut in half. 22 to 11 PPR points per game. Target share goes down, which you'd think it would go higher when a backup quarterback is in there. Who needs to rely on a good player it doesn't. It goes down. Jamar Chase, he's been a wide receiver 33 or worse in eight of the last 10 games where Jake Browning was the starter or played the majority of snaps. You can start, start Jamar Chase when you need to as your wide receiver. Two, Wide receiver. Three, Flex play. Which sounds crazy to say all this, I know, but especially in the next two upcoming games where things are going to be tough. Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers. I'm okay with benching them if you need to, if you have matchups that are going to be better. Now, the thing is, we're going into bye weeks, so you may not have the bench that's able to do that, but if you're sitting there and saying, I can't bench Jamar Chase, I can't bench T. Hicks Higgins, I can't bench Chase Brown. I mean, you can, you can definitely bench Chase Brown at this point. But the Bengals players, they're not the must starts that they were. T. Higgins, this is another one. Dave T. Higgins with Jake Browning drops down to a 13 target share. In the last two games with Jake Browning, two receptions, 24 yards outside the top 60. Like, this is a player that I think in most years, if we're just looking statistically, you might not even roster him, let alone start him. And this is where you have to be able to make some tough decisions. The only reason I say is you don't have to sell them is because the schedule does get easier. The Bengals could make a move. We could see Joe burrow back earlier than we think, but in that fantasy playoff schedule time, things get really nice for the Bengals. The problem is if you don't make those tough decisions now, you may not make it to the fantasy playoffs. So that's why I wanted to give this a ton of context and kind of maneuver every single avatar for this, this statement about the Bengals players.
- [40:30]
B
Yeah, and I mean, I don't think it could get much worse for Jake Browning than it's been these last two weeks. I mean, going up against the Vikings on the road and then the Broncos on the road, like that is really, really tough sledding. But as you alluded to Lions next week in Green Bay, the week after that, it's not like it gets a whole lot easier for him either. So I think the move is to hope that these struggles continue and then try to pounce bounce in two weeks and then you try to trade for Jamar Chase and some of these other guys. Because I think that once the schedule opens up, then you Know, it really opens up Pittsburgh, the New York Jets, Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh again. I mean, it gets a lot. A lot easier after these next couple of weeks, but I think a lot of people right now are going to be sitting there with their Chase Browns and their Jamar chases, and they're 0 and 4, and they're desperate to make a move. So if you can make a move now, I think it's okay. But, yeah, like, you talk about T. Higgins, I've got them outside my top 36 wide receivers this week. Like, I am not starting T. Higgins. Like, that is just done. Chase Brown, third in the league and opportunity share. Like, we should be getting so excited about it. It's so annoying. But he just, like, isn't. You know, we know he's like a smaller guy with juice. And, like, you know, when Jeff said this yesterday when we were recording the Dynasty episode, and I think it makes so much sense. Like, the Bengals, their entire team, the way that they built this team was like, we don't care about an offensive line or a running back because we have a quarterback that can overcome those bad situations. Like, our quarterback is so good that he can operate without an offensive line and without a good running back. Well, now that quarterback's gone, so now the offensive line and the running back, it's really rearing its ugly head, and now nothing is working because they don't have a superstar quarterback under center. So, yeah, I mean, like, maybe a trade is on the horizon. Maybe they're just punting this whole season away. But, like, I gotta admit, this morning, like, Michael Pittman is a guy I drafted in a lot of leagues, and he's been pretty hot so far this year. And this morning, I was like, I'm gonna go try to buy low on Jamar Chase. So Jabar Chase for my Michael Pittman. And I was sitting there with my thumb hovering over the send button, and I was just like, I can't do it. I think I'd prefer Michael Pittman right now. And, like, I still want to hold on to Jamar Chase, like, on the hope for Jamar Chase, but there's a chance that he just ends up being a huge bust this year. And, like, if this team ends up with a huge losing record at the midway point of the season, they might just say, like, hey, you know, Jamar Chase picked up an injury and his season's over. Like, I could see them just kind of punting this year away and just looking towards 20, 26, I think what.
- [42:53]
A
This does, it reminds me a lot of The Miami Dolphins last year where people were just starting Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle every week because they were players that they drafted highly. And it's a Dolphins offense. Right. Like it should be good. Well, when you've got a backup quarterback in there and the offense loses its identity, that was actually the worst thing you could do, is keep starting these players because they were losing you your weeks. Like, you actually have to look at these players that they're no longer the matchup proof stars that you drafted them to be. You actually have to play the matchups and see how wide receivers, how quarterbacks, how running backs are doing against these opponents. Because I think all that is gone. So it's, it's not necessarily that you need to sell these players, not necessarily that you have to bench them, it's that you need to change your approach and how you're looking, looking at them in a week in and week out basis. All right, let's go to the next one. Dave, I think you and I each have what, two more left?
- [43:43]
B
Yeah, yeah. And this one, this is probably my spiciest take of the show. So I, I saved this one for a little bit later when hopefully some people have stopped watching by this point. So all the YouTube commenters, nobody has stopped watching.
- [43:54]
A
Everyone is still watching.
- [43:57]
B
I think you should try to sell high on Drake May. And I know right now, you know, a young guy, the QB5 in fantasy. But there's two things that like really jump out to me that concern me a little bit. One, he's averaging a score every other game on the ground. That is probably going to regress. Like, I don't think that Drake May is going to be scoring nine rushing touchdowns this year. And two, you look at his schedule through the first four weeks he's played against the Las Vegas Raiders, the Miami Dolphins, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Carolina Panthers. I don't know if a schedule gets much easier for a quarterback than what we've seen Drake May have through this first month of the season. If you want to hold him, him, I have no issues with it whatsoever. But his schedule is going to get tougher. And when I look at this offense, they have not had a wide receiver, one who has stepped up yet. I mean, like, we saw a little flash from Stefan Diggs last week, we saw a flash from Kshawn Booty in week one. But like, Hunter Henry has been their primary receiving option this year and that concerns me a little bit. So like I said, if you want to hold him, go for it. But if I Have Drake May, I would try to flip him for Justin Fields, who, like, yeah, there's some concern about him getting injured or maybe losing his job down the stretch, but like, we've seen him, him just printing 30 points in two of his three starts so far this year. Dak Prescott, much better offensive environment. Caleb Williams, a better offensive environment and the same rushing upside that Drake May has Justin Herbert. I think some people might be panicking about the Joe Walt injury. So, you know, he's not a must sell by any means. But if I've got Drake May, I think that you can sell high right now. And if you can flip for Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert, I would do that.
- [45:28]
A
So my thing where I'm, I'm 100% going to keep Drake, maybe I get what you're saying, but I'm looking at the schedule and it does. There are some stretches where it's harder, but for the most part it is still a very, very friendly schedule. You got Tampa stinks.
- [45:43]
B
Yeah, I mean, six games against AFC east opponents is pretty nice for any quarterback.
- [45:46]
A
Weeks 10, you know, the little, the little thing on sleeper where you can look at the game logs and you can see like it gives you kind of the color. Week 10 through 18 are all green for Drake May and, and it's. And a lot of these opponents are relatively easy ones where it's Tampa Bay, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, a bye week. And 14, the Buffalo Bills, which their secondary has struggled. Baltimore Ravens, their defense has struggled, and the jets in week 17. So I, I do see a schedule here where like, it's good later there might. There's going to be a rough patch. Like there's going to be a rough patch, especially going against Cleveland, Atlanta. I think we're still figuring out what some of these defenses are. So maybe some of these that are, you know, highlighted green end up being orange and red later in the year. You know, the Bills defense can certainly get better. The Ravens defense can certainly get better.
- [46:30]
B
Better. The Bills this week in Sunday Night Football. I think that's right. That's what has me worried. I think the Bills defense is better than the fantasy points against them allowed really tells us. So I think like, this is where like right now everybody like found gold. Drake may like got him late in my Draft. He's the QB5 right now, but if he comes out in a primetime game and struggles, that value is going to crater. So that's why I think like right now, I think Justin Fields, I don't know if you can get Justin Fields because he's coming off a really good prime time game as well as. Well, not a good prime time game, but a good fantasy performance in a prime time matchup. And Justin Herbert, you know, he's been balling out. But I think like I said with Joe Alden injury, there might be a window there. So this is one where like, I think Drake May is fine. I think if you hold him, you're probably getting top 12 production from Drake May for the rest of the year. But I feel like right now you can trade him for one of those guys that has top five upside. And I don't know if Drake May has that for the full season.
- [47:22]
A
Yeah, I'm, I don't disagree with you on that all the way. Like, I, I think there is the top five upside. It's probably not as big. Like, I think if you can go and you can make a move for a guy like Jaden Daniels right now who has missed a couple of games and someone is worried, like that is a very. Or a Lamar Jackson. Like those are the specific ones where I'm saying like you can take a. Here's Drake May and Hunter Henry and here's a pack. Like that's probably. No one's doing that. But I'm saying like, here's, here's Drake May and I don't know, just throw in another piece. Again, I can't think of it off the top of my head, but like to get a Lamar Jackson or Jaden Daniels, that's where I'm on board. Because you're cashing in. But to me, to switch from Drake May to Justin Fields, that almost, maybe I'm wrong. It almost feels like a downgrade or it just feels like a lateral move. Like I'd rather stick with May for what I'm doing here. All right, let's, let's keep going. We got a couple more that we want to bring up here. And DeAndre Swift is a running back. Dave, that has been tough to quite understand. He's another one that's kind of like Chase Brown where you're like, man, he's getting plenty of opportunity and then it's just not always pretty. But the offense for the Bears has been good and I, I use next gen stats here for, for DeAndre Swift because there was something really interesting. So I'm wondering, I'm watching the film and I'm seeing, man, he's just, he's not getting the yard that's available to him. And this is something you And I have talked about where he doesn't always have the best vision as a runner and you see it, but to make it tangible and something that you're not just seeing on film. Something that is stat driven from next gen stats. DeAndre Swift has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage at the third lowest rate of qualifying running backs and has averaged the fifth most yards before contact per carry amongst running backs with at least 15 carries. Despite this, DeAndre Swift has recorded the lowest rushing success rate rate among the same group of running backs. Basically he's got great blocking in front of him, he's got the run lanes and he's doing the least amount with those running lanes of any running back. And that is honestly, it's upsetting to see as a fantasy manager, but I think that that's something that Ben Johnson is, is taking a look at and wondering what else can we do with our running game if DeAndre Swift is simply not taking what's there. Even against light fronts, light boxes, defensive boxes that have less than seven defenders. So six defenders on the line of scrimmage, second lowest rush EPA for any running back in the league right now. DeAndre Swift has opportunity and it's good opportunity and he's just not making good usage of it. Dave, I'm worried, I'm worried about DeAndre Swift, especially a team like this that is finding success. And I know we kind of said, said like it's been up and down. I'll say that it's been inconsistent, maybe not the same success. The Jaguars. Right. Because like we said, teams that are winning don't make big sweeping changes. The Bears have been on the precipice where it's like, oh we look really good this week, oh we look really bad this next week. And it's been back and forth. But there is hope that this is a good Bears offense and a good Bears team. They have a bye week that's coming up and that's my fear is that coming out of the buy is where they start to say, okay, let's start to deploy three headed attack, let's bring in someone else, let's sign somebody, let's trade for somebody, somebody where they try to make this adjustment of hey, we can be a playoff team if we get our run game going and it's just not going with DeAndre Swift.
- [50:46]
B
Yeah, I, I understand what you're saying. I mean like you're talking to one of the biggest DeAndre Swift haters in the world. Like I, I can't stand watching this guy. It just like ruins my love for football every time he gets a carry like he is just an east west runner. Can't break a tackle to save his life. But the opportunity's been there like he's 16th and expected fantasy points. He is getting an 80 opportunity share in this back. That's what I said up. I know. And that's, that's kind of like where like there's nobody right now that I think challenges him to take his role. Like to me it's a very similar conversation to what we had with Saquon Barkley not too long ago. We're like, I'm not saying DeAndre Swift is Saquon Barkley. Don't put words in my mouth, people. But I'm saying like it's kind of like a poor man's version of Saquon Barkley where it's like a guy who's getting all of the opportunity with nobody breathing on his neck on what we know is a pretty good offense. Of course DeAndre Swift isn't as good as Saquon Barkley. The Bears aren't as good as the Eagles. And you know the I've, I'm like taking everything I said about Saquon Barkley and turning it down like from a 10 to an 8. But I still think like there's opportunity to be had here. I just feel like right now if you're selling, you're selling at such a low point because the production hasn't been there. Just one touchdown in the year. You know, DeAndre Swift, it's been very similar to Saquon Barkley. We haven't seen him break off those big runs and we know that that's something that's in his wheelhouse. So I don't, I don't know if I can get behind self really cheap.
- [52:10]
A
DeAndre Swift coming off his best performance of the year, which is why I'm saying that he gets, he gets the touchdown last week. He's running back 20 on the week. The big difference we're talking about the opportunity share and the snaps are not quite there for Swift. Like Saquon Barkley is consistently in an 80 plus percent snapshare. DeAndre Swift, that number has been hovering around 60 throughout the last year.
- [52:34]
B
Maps to Kyle Menungai. But common guy doesn't really get touches like common.
- [52:39]
A
He hasn't been great either. Like don't get me wrong and I don't think that they have some sort of affinity for Roshan Johnson either.
- [52:45]
B
Oh, he's done. That's my he's like in their game plans.
- [52:49]
A
But that's my worry here, is that Ben Johnson, for whatever you might think about him personally, he, he is a guy that makes adjustments, right? Like, he doesn't seem to be stubborn in that way where he's going to try to keep fitting a square peg into a round down hole. So if we're saying DJ Moore is a trade candidate, well, what if there's a DJ Moore trade for a good running back to come in, something like that, you know, like I'm, it's high. It's like pie in the sky about.
- [53:12]
B
Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, the time that they spent together in Detroit. Like they know each other well. We saw what DJ Moore can do with Justin Fields Breeze hall in the Chicago Bears offense. Like, why can't this happen? Like it would be so fun for, for Bears fans, for jets fans, for fantasy managers. Like, just make it happen. Like, sure, the Bears are losing out on some value here, but like DJ Moore, for Breeze hall. Just make it happen, please.
- [53:37]
A
Yeah, I think it doesn't though because of the Braylon Allen injury.
- [53:41]
B
Yeah.
- [53:41]
A
And, and with the jets being 0 and 4 like them.
- [53:46]
B
I don't know, man. It's not going to happen. But let me, let me daydream here, please.
- [53:50]
A
Yeah, no, it's be fun. It's fine.
- [53:52]
B
It'd be fun. We'd all love it.
- [53:53]
A
It's fine. All right.
- [53:54]
B
The most like Madden fantasy football move trade imaginable, like this never happens in the NFL. But Mike, goodness, it would be fun.
- [54:01]
A
All right, Dave, let's go to your last one on here.
- [54:03]
B
I'll give you a two for here. Buy Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft while you still can. Last week, Tucker drafted two catches that went down on the one yard line. Let's just say hypothetically he scored one of those touchdowns. He'd be the overall tight end one in fantasy right now. Let's say he scored on both of those touchdowns. He would have almost 10 more or he'd have more than 10 points more than the next closest tight end been. I mean Brock or Tucker Kraft has been awesome. And I, I don't even think that like the production that we've seen so far really encapsulates how good he has been because we saw that week three game where he was coming back from an injury and clearly not 100. I mean he is just such a good player and I'm not gonna dig into all the X's and O's like we did a couple of weeks ago. Sure, he has Some limitations. But like Matt LaFleur knows exactly how to use him. And that's what we saw last week. It didn't translate to what we wanted to see in fantasy because he went down to the one twice. But. But you know, still getting the same usage. We want to see. Like it would not surprise me if Tucker Kraft is the overall tight end one this year and then Brock Bowers as well. I think people are panicking about him. He's the tight end 11 through three weeks. I'm sorry through through four weeks. But he is clearly impacted by this injury. Like you can just see it like he's not getting out of his brakes like he usually does. There was a pass that went over his head in the end zone where like normally you'd see Brock Bowers just leaping out of the arena like feet, six feet off the ground, coming down with this pass and like he just couldn't even jump the way that he normally does. He's got this big bulky brace on his knee since week one that's clearly been impacting him. But what we saw in week one when he was healthy was that Brock Bowers was Brock bowers. He had eight targets, he had 103 yards. Like people are so quick to forget and now people are panicking about him. Maybe this is just like a knee injury that lingers all year and Brock Bowers just has a down year that is certainly within the range of possibilities. We talked last week, week. We've talked a lot this season about how like no tight ends really matter outside of the elite guys and Brock Bowers is an elite guy. So when you've got these, you know, Juwan Johnson has been trending down. Probably doesn't have a lot of value right now. But I think of like a Hunter Henry right now who is just red hot. I think about Dalton Kincaid coming off a handful of touchdowns in the last couple of weeks. I don't know if you can get Brock Bowers for one of those guys. But if you pair them up with an injury away running back or a wide receiver too or one of these other guys, like I am absolutely trying to tear up from those Hunter Henry's and Dalton King Wades and Harold Fannins and all those other buzzy names, if I can turn that into a Brock Bowers or a Tucker Craft even giving up more, I want to do that.
- [56:29]
A
Yeah. Honestly. And I'm sitting here thinking the same thing about a guy like Jake Ferguson who's been having a really good string of games here. Like when CD Lamb comes back like, that's another one. Like, I would make that move as well for Brock Bowers or even Trey McBride. Like, both of the top 10 ins have been kind of down. And so the question is like, do they stay there? I don't think so. Especially not, not Bowers.
- [56:49]
B
I don't know if I'm there with Ferguson and McBride. I mean, I, I, I like McBride more than I like Bowers. And, and right now I do have Bowers, like just ahead of Jake Ferguson in my rankings. But I think Ferguson has, you know, ascended ahead of the Hunter Henry's and the other guys. Like his, his target volume has been just obscene. With or without CD Lamb, it hasn't really mattered. So I'm kind of looking at Jake Ferguson in that elite tier of tight ends now. And maybe I should have Hunter Henry and Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts in that discussion as well. But I'm not really taking the cheese on those guys the way that I am with, with Jake Ferguson. So Kyle Pitts was the other name that popped in mind. Like he's been red hot over the last couple of weeks. He's another player. Like, if you could trade Kyle Pitts and another player on your team to move up for Tucker Craft and a Brock Bowers, I think that's just a great move to make.
- [57:35]
A
That's, that's the tough part is that I don't think people are doing that. Like, I still think there is a lot of name value to things. So it's like that's why you kind of have to do even if it's just like a mini tier up from a Ferguson to a Bowers. Like, however they're looking here, like, I have more confidence in Bowers going forward. By the way, I was sitting here thinking the whole time it was right there in front of us. DJ Moore to the Seattle Seahawks for Zach Charbonnet and a pick.
- [57:58]
B
Yeah, I love that. Yeah, I hate it for my JSN shares, but it would be a lot of fun.
- [58:03]
A
It would absolutely suck. All right, last one that I'm going to throw out here is more of just a philosophical thing Dave and I want to talk about. This is, I like to at this point trade for players that are out with injuries or have been out with injuries on IR. Players like Rishi Rice, George Kittle, Terry McLaren, CD Lamb. This is when the BI weeks are starting to hit. This is when fantasy managers are starting to get desperate. This is when people are, are putting a bunch of money into their blind fab bids and then losing out on it and saying, oh my God, I need to. I hear this so much in my home leagues and then questions on social media. I really need to start someone in my wide receiver two spot this week. I really need to start a running back too. I really need a flex. And the desperation of that week settles in where they say, yeah, fine, fine, I'll, I'll give you Rasheed Rice just for, you know, for whatever wide receiver. I need to start someone this week. I can't go up.05. Well, this is the time to start making those deals, Dave. And so I want to talk to you about that is how do you feel about doing that for these players, especially fantasy managers that have bad records right now. Players like Rasheed Rice and George Kittle and some of these guys, even Rasheed Rice who's like not coming off injury, like he's coming off suspension, that's almost seems to be the best bet to go for.
- [59:26]
B
And an injury. I mean, it is kind of funny how quickly we just like forget.
- [59:29]
A
Like, no, I mean it's like it's further back. Like it's not a recent thing like Kittle had the recent hamstring or McLaurin had the recent, recent injury.
- [59:35]
B
But there could be a ramp up for Rashi Rice that I think a lot of people aren't really taking into consideration. But I digress. We don't have to get into all that. But yeah, definitely trading for those guys right now because a lot of those players, you know, we've seen a lot of highly drafted players go on IR early this season. George Kittle and CD Lamb are the ones that immediately jump to mind. But yeah, if you can trade for those guys right now, I think it's a good move. Brandon Ayuk is probably the one that I'm pausing on a little bit. Not too crazy about John Lynch's comments about him still being like far from a return. That definitely worries me. But George Kittle? Yeah, I mean, I've still got George Kittle in that elite tier. Like I was just talking about buying low on Tucker Kraft and Brock Bowers. I don't think you could buy lower on any elite tight end right now than George Kittle and a lot of people too. You got to remember when Kittle went down, a lot of people, like immediately after week one, picked up a Jake Ferguson or a Hunter Henry. So now they're feeling like I don't even need Kittle at this point. Like I already found gold with Hunter Henry. Meaning you could probably get Kittle for even Cheaper. So I think that's probably the guy that you can get for the best deal. The only issue is like those fantasy managers after week one that picked up Hunter Henry or Jake Ferguson probably aren't sitting at.04 right now. They might be doing okay because of that, that patch job that they were able to do there. So, yeah, I think just like philosophically, big picture. Yeah. You always want to trade for these players on IR if you're sitting above.500 because you can absorb that risk better than other teams can.
- [60:54]
A
Yeah. I think it starts to become the perfect storm of we haven't had a great waiver wire week like so far. We've had a couple of players here and there, but we haven't had the big overwhelming waiver wire weeks. Bio weeks are coming in. Injuries feel crazier. We say that every year, but injuries feel crazier than ever this year.
- [61:11]
B
And speaking of, did you see the news that came through while we were recording? They're saying a foot sprain for Bucky Irving. He's on crutches and in a boot. Not good.
- [61:20]
A
Bye, Rashad White.
- [61:22]
B
There you go.
- [61:22]
A
Breaking news.
- [61:23]
B
Yeah, man, injuries just keep coming.
- [61:27]
A
I don't want to celebrate an injury, but the Rashad White, like all over my bench feels, feels pretty good to have. And this is something you plan for.
- [61:39]
B
These ahead of time. Yeah. You do.
- [61:40]
A
100%. Yeah, 100. It's an ugly part of the game. Right. And it's not us like victory lapping that a player is hurt. But this is why you draft the way you do. Like we always talk about these contingency guys, these injury away running backs and it's a big momentum swinger for your fantasy team. Dave. Look at you with the reporting. I like it. Well, I think that's it for us. It's going to be a wrap. We're going to be back again tomorrow with the show.
- [62:04]
B
This is a fun one, Alfredo. I like just kind of just keeping it loose and conversational. This is fun. I'm enjoying this one quite a bit.
- [62:11]
A
I don't enjoy any minute of this show. I enjoy when we log off and I slam my laptop shut. But we'll be back. I'm just kidding. We'll be back again tomorrow with our starts, sits and streamers for week five of fantasy football. As always, want to thank everybody for watching or listening all the way through. For myself, for Dave. We'll see you next time. Adios.