Do Not Draft These Players! || Fantasy Football 2025

Summary

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Footballguys Fantasy Football Show - Episode Summary

Episode: Do Not Draft These Players! || Fantasy Football 2025
Hosts: Alfredo A. Brown & Dave Kluge
Date: July 29, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this lively episode, Alfredo Brown and Dave Kluge pull no punches as they break down the most overvalued and risky picks for the 2025 fantasy football season — the players they refuse to draft at current cost. With a mix of hard analysis, detailed metrics, and playful banter, the hosts explain not only who they're out on, but why — revealing broader draft strategy truths along the way. They open up their own ranks and process, discuss usage trends, risk tolerance, and how surrounding depth and ADP affect their willingness to select certain players. Memorable as much for the arguments as for the actionable insight, this episode is a must-listen for anyone prepping their draft board with an eye toward value.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

[03:10] The Do-Not-Draft List: Philosophy

• Every year there are players to avoid — “landmines” — mainly due to cost, uncertain usage, or systemic risk.
• Draft strategy principle: It’s not that you hate the player, you hate the cost. A lower price or clearer role can shift a player from fade to buy.

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[04:00] Joe Mixon and the Houston RB Mess

• Dave:
  • Injuries, especially lingering foot/ankle issues, have derailed Mixon's viability:

    “He is more likely to never play football again than to be the Week 1 starter. I am completely off my draft board at this point.” [04:01]

  • Houston’s OL is a mess; team is investing in WRs, signaling shift away from a bellcow backfield.
  • Demico Ryans (HC) is secretive on Mixon’s status, which adds to unease.
• Alfredo:
  • Even with ADP dipping to rounds 4–6, he wouldn’t trust Mixon before the double-digit rounds:

    “Even then, I struggle. If I get to round 10 and Mixon is there, I’m like—what am I getting him for?” [05:17]

  • Other Houston backs (Chubb, Woody Marks, Damian Pierce) also uninspiring; potential for more moves/cuts/trades in the RB market before camp ends.
• Actionable Advice:
  • No clear reason to roster a Houston back unless someone earns a true workhorse role.
  • Trade/cut watch: situational value if the Texans add RB talent, but otherwise, avoid.

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[09:38] Jalen Warren (PIT): The Overhyped RB2

• Dave’s Take:
  • Warren is popular for efficiency metrics, but context matters – most touches on light defensive looks, NOT sustained workhorse scenarios.
  • Career ceiling: RB25 (low-end RB2/high-end RB3); this year more likely RB4/5.
  • Steelers added rookie Caleb Johnson early in the draft, likely to lead, with Gainwell and Sermon in the mix.

  • “All the exciting efficiency metrics … it’s because he comes in on third and long … The reality is he’s an undersized, undrafted, relatively unathletic running back behind Caleb Johnson on the depth chart.” [10:17]

  • Consensus (RB26-32) is too high — no contingent upside even if injuries strike.
• Alfredo:
  • Cautions drafters not to confuse talent for role; Arthur Smith’s system favors bigger backs for goal-line and zone running.
  • Compares Warren to others in the RB30s (Jordan Mason, Tyrone Tracy) with better upside.

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[14:29] Sam LaPorta (DET): Talented, Overpriced

• Alfredo:
  • LaPorta being drafted round 3–4 is simply too rich:

    “I don’t want my team having to rely on Sam Laporta as one of my top three or four best players … I need that player to be so premium in comparison to the remaining tight ends, and [he’s] not.” [14:29]

  • Points out volatile usage — his role, red zone targets, and OC changes inject risk; others like Tucker Kraft or David Njoku offer similar upside much, much later.
• Dave:
  • Reinforces that last year’s strong playoff production misleads; his usage metrics (target share, air yard share) never truly jumped.
  • Tight end "dead zone" this year: Kelsey, Andrews, Laporta, and others going too high relative to viable late values.

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[19:41] The Quarterback Dead Zone (& Baker Mayfield)

• Dave:
  • Quarterback landscape “flattened”; easier than ever to get upside late or with double-digit round value.
  • “Dead zone QBs” this year: Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff — all offer little rushing upside and require everything to break right.

  • “Baker Mayfield … just a career year across the board … unless you expect that to happen again, he’s being a little overpriced. … They give you almost no rushing upside.” [21:07]

  • Prefers to wait and stack options like Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, etc.
• Alfredo:
  • “Frankenstein QB” approach: streaming or late stabs (Jordan Love, Bryce Young, Cam Ward) beat mid-round investments.
  • Only willing to pay QB premium for high ceiling/rushing (Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams).

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[24:45] Xavier Worthy (KC): Price Reflects Ceiling, Not Reality

• Alfredo:
  • Being drafted as WR22 (round 4+) expects him to retain last year’s late-season magic, but he thrived mostly after Rashee Rice left, not before.
  • Jalen Royals profiles as the “Rice replacement”; Worthy best as a field stretcher, not a volume guy.

  • “His role completely changed when Rice came off the field … The problem is, when Rice gets back, that’s the Rashee Rice role.” [25:26]

• Dave:
  • Compares Worthy to old “DeSean Jackson” types—occasional blow-up but poor target/ball-tracking skills, not a volume role.
  • Will sprinkle him into a few leagues for FOMO, but only as a low % exposure.

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[32:18] Chris Godwin (TB): An Alarming Decline

• Dave:
  • Lingering ankle injury with visible atrophy and swelling; required second surgery and slow camp start.
  • Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka, likely to take over the slot (where Godwin is elite); outside, Godwin is highly inefficient.

    “When he plays out wide, that yards per route run drops down to 1.78 … which would be 46th.” [33:26]

  • Too many red flags: injury, age, role loss, new competition (see last year’s downfall for Cooper Kupp).
• Alfredo:
  • In the WR34 range, there’s way more exciting or safer upside with players like Chris Olave, Roman Odunze, Jacoby Meyers, Khalil Shakir.

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[36:13] Jerry Jeudy (CLE): Efficient Fantasy Bet Gone Wrong

• Alfredo:
  • “30% of his fantasy points last season came in two games”—rest of year he’s volatile in a bad way.
  • Next year’s situation is even messier. Not only is team worse, but no clear volume/efficiency path on a run-heavy, unsettled QB offense.

  • “He had to survive on games with insane volume but poor efficiency.” [37:37]

  • Even prefers Patriots’ Stefon Diggs over Jeudy at cost.
• Dave:
  • Jeudy’s projection entirely QB-dependent (Joe Flacco is the only way to value him up) and seems unlikely with the Browns in rebuild mode.

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[41:59] Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): The Spicy Flag-Plant

• Dave:
  • Out on ARSB at his WR6 cost (has him WR11):

    “He was third in outperforming his expected fantasy points last year. He would have been the WR19 in expected fantasy points based on his usage.” [44:09]

  • Key usage/target metrics have fallen every year; last season’s value propped up almost entirely by touchdown streak during a 5-game hot stretch.
  • Jameson Williams is ascending, Laporta/OC change add usage risk. Simple regression could mean a huge miss at WR1 price.
  • “Being just a few spots below ADP means you’ll never draft him.”
• Alfredo:
  • More moderate; acknowledges the risk but still sees safety—has ARSB at WR7. “If it’s down to ARSB at 1/2 or Jameson in the 6th/7th, I’ll take Jameson value, but I can’t full-fade him.”

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[50:14] Debo Samuel (WAS): Fading the Waning Superstar

• Alfredo:
  • Even as ADP slides to WR37, not interested. Needs athleticism, design, and health to outperform—too many ifs, and last year’s usage/metrics (only one 20+ yard game late) are red flags.

  • “It’s just not good business to be investing in wide receivers over the age of 30 that need to rely on athleticism to win.” [52:14]

• Dave:
  • Emphasizes his “running back aging curve”—efficiency and broken tackle rate absolutely cratering the last two years.

  • “I judge Debo the same way I look at running backs, and all the metrics tell us his athleticism is just waning.” [53:54]

  • Ranks him as low as WR51.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “We don’t dislike players, we dislike costs.” – Alfredo Brown [16:00]
• “No, not even if there is a fire, there is no way I am drafting Joe Mixon.” – Dave Kluge [04:01]
• “All the exciting efficiency metrics … it’s because [Warren] comes in on third and long. The reality is he’s an undersized, undrafted, relatively unathletic running back…” – Dave Kluge [10:17]
• “I want guys with so much more contingent upside… That’s what I want if I’m picking in that round.” – Alfredo [14:06]
• “Baker Mayfield is just the most mispriced of them all.” – Dave Kluge [22:01]
• "[Amon-Ra St. Brown] was third in outperforming his expected fantasy points last year … The touchdowns just really inflated his overall finish.” – Dave Kluge [44:09]
• "It’s not just player vs. player, it’s player vs. the map around them.” – Alfredo [35:39]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Joe Mixon / Houston RBs:
  [04:00]–[09:38]
• Jalen Warren (PIT):
  [09:38]–[14:29]
• Sam LaPorta (DET):
  [14:29]–[19:47]
• QB Dead Zone & Baker Mayfield:
  [19:47]–[24:45]
• Xavier Worthy (KC):
  [24:45]–[32:18]
• Chris Godwin (TB):
  [32:18]–[36:03]
• Jerry Jeudy (CLE):
  [36:03]–[41:59]
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET):
  [41:59]–[50:14]
• Debo Samuel (WAS):
  [50:14]–[54:34]

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Final Takeaways

• The “Do Not Draft” list isn’t about player hate — it's about cost, role, and market value.
• Don’t chase last year’s playoff magic, outlier touchdowns, or empty usage: always consider role security, upside, and risk.
• In later rounds, prioritize high-ceiling profiles and contingent upside rather than bland “safe” bets.
• Keep an eye on roster moves in crowded or volatile backfields (like Houston).
• It's okay to diverge from consensus, especially if data and projections mean you’ll never get a player at ADP.
• Always watch the landscape around the player — opportunities in adjacent picks can often determine whether a “fade” is warranted.

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For more, subscribe to Footballguys on your favorite platform and follow Alfredo & Dave on social for rankings, insight, and draft updates.

Transcript

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[Alfredo A. Brown]

So I get, I get home after the long flight and I have, I'm going to the movie at 9 to go watch it. Fantastic Four.

[Dave Kluge]

Oh, I'm 100% asleep during that. You're crazy.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

9Pm Showtime after doing an 11 hour travel day where I woke up at like 4am and it was just, I, I just, I needed to go see it because I'm recording unbinged. But dude, like I get there, there's like 10 cars in the parking lot. Nine o', clock, like it is dead. The lights are off, the front doors are locked, I can't get in. And there's like a family hanging out in the lobby. And I didn't realize what I looked like until I had to think about it because I'm there banging on, knocking on the door for them to let me in. And they just looked at me like a. Like a cat would look at its owner. Just like, no, no thanks. And I realized I'm in all black. Black long sleeve hoodie, black joggers, black shoes because that's like my airplane fit. And then my hair is all disheveled. I look like a crazy person banging on a theater door at 9 o' clock at night in a virtually empty parking lot. And they're like, absolutely not. So I, I hear them opening like a side exit door and I go running, grab the exit door. They're speaking only Spanish. And so like I say something to them in Spanish and they kind of look back like that guy's gonna go rob the movie theater. And I get in, I get to my theater for Fantastic Four. I'm the only person in there.

[Dave Kluge]

I love having a theater myself.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Oh, that's great. But having the entire cinema, like the entire, like there was not a single employee anywhere. Like I thought it was gonna be a night at the museum situation. Like there was just nothing. Not a single per. Like no one cleaning, no One clothing.

[Dave Kluge]

No one leave the broom for you. They're like, just please clean on your way out.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

There was no one. It was so eerie and cre. And I took a picture of it as I like as I got out. I'll send it to you now. My car was the only one in the parking lot. There was. I don't think there was an employee there. I think they just leave the doors open over like the exit door open overnight and that's it.

[Dave Kluge]

See, I'm a fan of like the afternoon showtimes. Like that's one of the benefits of our job is like we get some flexible hours and I love going mid afternoon and just getting a theater all to myself.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I'm a morning guy. I love going to the first showing like at 10am, go grab some breakfast.

[Dave Kluge]

Hop into the weekends. For sure, I like weekends. But, but during the week like that, that 3:44pm Showtime seems to be kind of the, the sweet spot for me. I actually think I might go see together this Thursday.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Oh, I want to see that. Me, me and my wife want to go see that one.

[Dave Kluge]

That and weapons are. I, I think the, the two that I'll be watching over the next Thursday afternoon is just like my favorite time to get to get out for a movie.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

All right, so Joe, you hear that when we have our Thursday afternoon meeting. Dave is. Every year in fantasy football there are players that we just absolutely do not want to draft. They are the landmines that you have to avoid mostly just because of their cost or because of some other outside factors. But today Dave Kluge and I are going to talk about nine players that we have we will not draft no matter what, even if there's a fire. I hope you guys get that reference. Dave, this is a fun one because like you and I, we both agree on this first player immediately because of the news that happened over the weekend with Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon.

[Dave Kluge]

And before we get into Joe Mixon, I just want to say stick around to the end of the show because we do have some really spicy names that we're intentionally burying a little bit, saving for the end, for the real sickos that want to stick around. But yeah, dude, Joe Mixon. I remember 2021 when Joe Mixon had a day to day foot injury that lingered for four weeks before they inevitably shut down his season and put him on season ending ir. I mean this foot injury has been bothering him for years now. And last year it was ankle and foot injuries that really kind of took his juice out of at the end of the season and looking at it now, man, I don't want to be like an alarmist, but I'm nervous. We're looking at a 29 year old who has dealt with consistent injuries on this foot for the last four years now. I think he is more likely to never play football again than he is to be the Week 1 starter. He's a guy that is just like completely off my draft board at this point. And I was just doing a high stakes draft last week and this was before the news came out and it was the one share that I've drafted of Joe Mixon this year and it's because he fell into round six and I was like, I guess at that value he's too good to pass on. Then the news comes out just a couple days later. No, not even if there is a fire, there is no way that I am drafting Joe Mixon. I've moved Nick Chubb up my board a little bit, but I don't have a lot of faith in him. I think Woody Marks is probably going to be the guy. I'm not a big fan of Damian Pierce either. This is just a backfield right now that's looking like a nightmare.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, I, I think that. So let's get into first, the Joe Mixon of it all, the Texans. And then the actionable advice from this is that I think you're right. I think we're, we're. Joe Mixon is probably closer to not playing relevant football again than he is to being the starter that we hoped he'd be. Like he was going at one point, Dave, in the third round of drafts, which is nuts. And then with the news, you've seen that ADP dip a little bit into the fourth round, some in the fifth. I don't think that you can be taking him like anywhere in your top eight to nine rounds. And even then I struggle if I get to round 10 and Joe Mixon is sitting there, I'm like, well, what am I getting him for? For an offense that has a bad offensive line for a team that's likely going to have to pass the ball a lot. And you've seen the investment they've made in receivers, especially in the draft and in free agency, and the relationship of CJ Stroud and Nico Collins. But that off the line is horrible. Then they go out and they get Nick Chubb, which I think should have told us like everything. And you mentioned some of the other guys here, Woody Marks, Damian Pierce, I'm a little bit of the other Way, like, I wasn't a huge fan of Woody Marks. Damian Pierce, I was a fan of. But that ship may have sailed at this point just because I don't think he's been a good fit there. I wonder if there's an option outside of what we're looking at here, because it feels weird to be like, I'm out on Joe Mixon, but also I'm in on Nick Chubb, and it's.

[Dave Kluge]

Right.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Not quite.

[Dave Kluge]

Did you see the quotes about Nick Chubb that came out yesterday from. From a Houston coach?

[Alfredo A. Brown]

What was it?

[Dave Kluge]

He was just like, he plays football the right way. You know, he's strong. He's putting a lot of effort in as a pass blocker. He's got a great career behind him. And, I mean, it just sounds like it's really the end of the road for Nick Chubb as well. So, yeah, this isn't a backfield that I really want to invest too much in. We. Woody Marks is probably the guy. You know, I like the prospect a little bit, but he's got some size concerns. I'm worried about him standing up for a whole season if they're giving him a big workload. I think if it really is the end for Joe Mixon, which. It was kind of weird. Dude, did you see d'? Amico? Ryan's, like, snapped at the reporters when they asked about him, and he was like, we're not talking about Joe Mixon's injury. And it was like, okay, well, biggest storyline in Houston right now. But if we want to just ignore it, I guess we have to. But wouldn't be surprised. You know, we. We. We've tossed around Zach, Charbonnet, Breeze Hall, Travis etn, a lot of these buzzy names on the trade market right now. Nothing's come to fruition yet, but there's still a lot of camp left. And we see running backs regularly get traded right before week one. So wouldn't surprise me if they add to this backfield.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, I. I wouldn't surprise me if we see decent running back names get cut, guys that are maybe buried on the depth chart, too, that they just say, hey, just, you know, we found it's the best thing for us to do to just let you go so you can go find another home. And they immediately land in Houston where they can, you know, work this out because.

[Dave Kluge]

Which is how Joe Mixon landed in Houston, right? Years ago, like the Bengals, they were about to cut him. They announced that they were going to cut him, and then the Texans were like, wait, hold on we'll give you a seventh round pick for Joe Mixon. So wouldn't be surprised if they pull off something like that, which they also just did with Christian Kirk. The Jacksonville Jaguars were going to cut Christian Kirk and then they traded a day three pick for him. So we might see that happen where they just want to like get ahead of waivers and this is a team that has been willing to just, just kind of burn seventh round picks on players before they get cut. So we might see that happen again.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, like I'm trying to think of who might end up over there.

[Dave Kluge]

Roshan Johnson.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, there's Sean Tucker, there's Roshan Johnson. I mean, Khalil Herbert's on the, on the, the Colts right now, but there's talk that DJ Giddens might be the RB2 there. Like there's a lot of better perhaps.

[Dave Kluge]

I mean there's, there's a crowded room in New Orleans. Yeah, there's a lot of guys that are probably not names that we know that probably aren't going to be on 53.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Devin Singletary goes right back to the Texans. Yep, I think that might be the one.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah. I so let's say regardless of name, we get confirmation of X player is the RB one for the Texans. Do you have any interest?

[Dave Kluge]

It all depends who it is. I mean, if it is Herbert, I'm probably way back in. If it's Nick Job. Yeah, probably not so much. I mean, if it's a, a breeze hall or Travis ETN or Zach Charbonnet, count me all the way in. But I think it depends on who the guy is going to be because if it is Devin Singletary, I'd expect a little mix of Woody Marks and Damian Pierce and Dario Gumbawale and some other guys there. Or if they do make a splashier move for big name, then we can project more of a workhorse role.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

All right, let's go to some of our other players that we wanted to talk about here because there are some, some really interesting situations, not just at the running back spot, but the wide receiver spot. The running back spot though that I'm looking at right now. Dave is for your player Jalen Warren for the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is a guy that you just, you don't want to draft. And we've seen the same story before over and over and over where team drafts rookie running back early in the NFL draft and the veteran who's been sitting there that people are like, well, I kind of like the value because of where he's going in drafts, they get unseated pretty fast. And is that more or less where you're at with Jalen Warren?

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. And there was a lot of excitement for Jalen Warren when Najee Harris walked in free agency. And his ADP just hasn't dropped the way that I think it should have after the Caleb Johnson investment. And Jalen Warren is a fun player, you know, great story. Came in undrafted and has carved out an NFL role, but we know who he is at this point. Last year he was the RB41. In 2023, his best career season, he was the RB25. And his rookie year when he kind of came out of the scene and we got excited about him, he was the RB51. So what we're looking at is a ceiling of being an RB3 and a floor is RB5, you know, somebody you don't even want on your fantas fantasy ceiling or on your fantasy team. And I think all of the exciting efficiency metrics, when we look at the missed tackles and explosive run rate and the, the juke rate, all those things that people get excited about in regards to Jalen Warren, it's because he comes in on third and long. And last year he saw an average of 6.6 defenders in the box. That was 16th among running backs for the best average defenders in the box. Stacked front rate on just 10.8% of his carries. 17, Best front for running back. So he's not really seeing defensive looks that most other running backs have to deal with. He comes in on third and long when they've got 12 yards to go and the defense says, okay, yeah, we'll let you get 10 or 11 yards because we're just trying to stop the first down here. So, you know, a fun player, but at the end of the day, he is an undersized, undrafted, relatively unathletic running back who's going to be behind Caleb Johnson on the depth chart here. And I think that even if Johnson does get hurt, we're not looking at this like sky high contingency upside for Jalen Warren. The reality is that they're probably going to see some Kenneth Gainwell and Trey Sermon. They're gonna get some other guys in the mix there. So this is a guy who, while Caleb Johnson is out there, is an RB4. If Caleb Johnson isn't out there, maybe becomes an RB3. But where I've got him ranked right now, I've got him as my RB47 in drafts. And right now, football guys, consensus RB26, his ADP is RB23. It seems like people are expecting him to take this big step forward and I just can't get.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I think, I think you may have inverted some of Those running back 32 on ADP. Yes, but it's still 23. Yeah, but it's still like, that's still very high. Like you're, you're basically taking him ahead of, I think, some higher upside guys here. Like, I mean, Jordan Mason I think has some, some great contingent upside that Jalen Warren doesn't have. Taking him have Travis etn, who we already have as like the confirmed starter. You know, like, there's, there's a lot going on. He's going right in the same area as Tyrone Tracy, which I think is just wild. Like, I think Tyrone Tracy, far and away is the much better pick at the running back spot.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. So I don't have a, a whole, much else to say here. We, we know who Jalen Warren is. People are expecting this big step forward in year four and I just can't get there.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Well, and it's, it's not a, it's not an indictment on the player's talent either. And like, I hope that people aren't hearing what we're not saying. Every time that we say not going to draft this player, they go, well, you don't know ball because he's really good. That's not. We're saying, yeah, Jaylen Warren is a good player, man. But it also has to do with like what Arthur Smith wants to do with this offense. And a lot of it is he loves to have a big bruising back that he can get into the outside and work those zone runs and get downhill and get big chunk plays like that and be able to win at the goal line too. Like, that's not typically what happens with Jaylen Warren. Now I've been reading that there have been some struggles with Caleb Johnson in the passing game, and that's where Jaylen Warren is going to have his role. But Dave, you also mentioned Kenneth Gainwell, who's a fantastic passing down back. So, I mean, there's, there's. I, I think there's reason to believe that Jaylen Warren's role itself might be capped by having these other running backs on the roster as well.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. So again, you know, it just comes down to I, I do like the player. I think he's a fun player. I think that his role is really good. But in fantasy, I'm looking at him as kind of an RB4, RB5, and the market is much more bullish. On him.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, I think in like something it should be the overarching theme of what we talk about with players that are going a little bit later in drafts, especially at where Jalen Warren is going. I want guys with so much more contingent upside, like Jordan Mason may not be a more talented player or have a better role to start out the season, but the upside there for later in the year is so much better. Like that's, that's what I want if I'm picking in that round.

[Dave Kluge]

Absolutely.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

All right. The first guy I want to talk about here is a name that I think a lot of people really like. He had himself a fantastic rookie year, but Sam Laporta, tight end for the Detroit Lions, I think is just going too damn high in drafts. And like I'm just, I'm not in at that price right now. I've seen ADP as high as the third round for Sam Laporta, but right now, average draft position for Sam Laporta on footballguys.com which takes an aggregate of all of the different websites that are doing drafts throughout the summer and at the moment has him in the fourth round. I don't want to basically have my team need to rely on Sam Laporta being one of my top three or four best players when so much of that is just going to come down to is the Lions offense going to be good? Is he going to be catching as many touchdowns as he did his rookie year? And then even then there's so many other things that need to go right. Jared Goff, remember he's coming off of a career season where really it wasn't a career season, it was like a career five game streak towards the end of the year where he was going up against. And really I'm not trying to hate against the Lions or what they were doing because they were a phenomenal team, but we do need that context if he was going up against a lot of bad secondaries, a lot of indoor games. I did recently watch the quarterback documentary on Netflix which is great. And Jared Goff even says, huh, weird. Look at that. I was able to play well outside when it's cold. And yeah, he had some very good games.

[Dave Kluge]

Like very good players are like aware of the bit when they have like the self awareness to like know the narratives against them. I love that 100%.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

100. And this is once again it's not a knock on the porta, not a knock on the Lions, not a knock on Goff. It is more a we need everything to go right for this player's average draft position to pay off. We don't dislike players, we dislike costs. And right now for the Lions, they're going to have a new offensive coordinator coming in. They lose their starting center, so they're, they're revamping that offensive line a little bit. You're hoping that Jared Goff remains playing at a high level. They've already talked about how they want this offense to run through Jameer Gibbs. There's going to be an expanded and continued role for Jameson Williams, who continues to get better, who essentially, if we're like, if we're really looking at this as kind of going into his second year of being an NFL player because of the weird start to his season, and, and I can't draft a guy in the fourth round who doesn't make a big difference for me at the tight end spot. Like, I need that player to be so premium in comparison to the remaining tight ends. And when I look at laporta and he's 11th in receptions last year, he's 12th in targets last year, he would need to really take a massive jump where he's top three in targets. He's going back to his rookie season where he's having amazing, amazing touchdown variants. He's having amazing target rates. I'd much rather go for a guy like Tucker kraft in the 10th or David Najoku in the eighth round than I am Sam Laporta in the third, fourth, or even fifth round.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, and you remember, I mean, I got dragged through the mud last off season for my fade on Sam Laporta, but when you look at what he did in 2023, I said like, hey, he's a good player. But I look at usage, I think usage is just the most predictive metric going forward. That's a sticky stat year over year. And the usage in year one, he was sixth in target chair, he was sixth in air yard chair. And I said, you know that that's good. You know, he's getting like middling tight end one usage, but the touchdowns really pushed his value up there so much. And then going into year two, target chair, 14th among tight ends, air yard share, seventh among tight ends. His usage didn't really change that much. The only thing that changed was that he didn't score as many touchdowns and his fantasy floor kind of fell out from under him. So I think he's a fine player. You know, I've got him ranked in that kind of middling tight end one range, which is, I think, where he belongs. I've got him lumped in with Travis Kelsey and T.J. hawkinson. But it comes down to value, like you said, going in fourth round. We did an NFFC high stakes draft last night where he went at the top of round four and I just don't really get why people are getting there. It does feel like there's this dead zone in the tight end landscape this year. Yeah, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelsey, TJ Hawkinson, Sam Laporta. I don't want to pay up for those guys because we're looking at, like you said, David Najoku, Tucker Kraft, Tyler, Warren Colson, Loveland, Evan Ingram, Mike Kosicki, these guys that are going later in drafts that I think are going to give you similar upside and you don't need to pay up for them with a football 4th or 6th round pick. You can get them in round 10 and beyond. So for me, I am totally content just waiting on tight end this year. If I don't get one of those top three elite guys.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

And by the way, I also think there is, it's very reasonable to believe that the Lions will not pass as much as they did last year. Last year, I mean their defense got decimated by injuries, they had to pass just to be able to score more than other teams. And then on top of that they lose David Montgomery. So if we really want to go down this narrative of not having you're between the tackles runner, you're missing so many of your players on defense, you're just passing at a non stop high rate. And Sam Laporta really became like third or fourth in the pecking order in what should have been a very good passing situation. Yeah, I just, I just don't want to bet on that early. So it's just there's too many of these factors that we want to embrace risk, we want to embrace volatility, but not this early in a draft where your team basically rests on that player being a successful.

[Dave Kluge]

And I think talking about that tight end dead zone is a perfect segue for the next guy that I want to talk about.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Is it because. It's because the quarterback dead zone is that.

[Dave Kluge]

Yes.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Okay. I just want to make sure we mind melded there because I was just, I was like, wait, do you have another tight end?

[Dave Kluge]

No, no. Quarterback dead zone. Yeah. And this is something that I have talked about a ton this offseason. There's just been a big flattening of the quarterback position. And again, back to that NFFC high stakes draft that I did last night. I very proudly. Joey Wright And I, we drafted this team together and we very proudly were the last team to take a quarterback. We doubled a half quarterbacks and walked out with Justin Herbert and Kayla Williams. And I just feel great about doing that when you could wait on quarterback and still walk away with a high end guy. And right now Baker Mayfield is a guy who I think is just kind of the poster child for a dead zone quarterback this year. A lot of it comes down to being a potential regression candidate. I mean the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were red hot last year and Baker Mayfield, career highs in completion percentage, passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, touchdown rate, QBR success rate, first downs, completions, attempts, yards per game and on target percentage. I mean just a career year across the board for Baker Mayfield and he finishes a top five quarterback because of it. He scored just as many points last year as Joe Burrow. So unless you're expecting that to happen again, he's just being a little bit overpriced. I think that when you see a quarterback do this, you know, just have this kind of fluky year where they just across the board have career highs in all of these statistics, it worries me a little bit because we typically see those guys regress then going into the next year. And I think that he is a good player as well. Baker Mayfield, I like him, but it is so hard for me to pay up for that tier of quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, they're all dead zone quarterbacks in my opinion. They give you almost no rushing upside and you can get a Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, C.J. stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford a lot later. And those guys, if the variance breaks in their direction, could have a top five quarterback season just like Baker Mayfield did last year. But even in addition to those guys, I look at Caleb Williams and Bo Nix and Justin field, Drake May, J.J. mcCarthy, these young guys that also have rushing upside. It's just so hard for me to look at these quarterbacks going to like the QB5 to QB10 range, paying up for them when I know that I could be the last guy to draft quarterback and still walk away with a potential QB one. I could take two quarterbacks and double my chances of walking away with that guy. And it's not a knock on Baker Mayfield, it's just kind of the market as a whole. I just don't like any of these quarterbacks going in the mid rounds. And Baker is the one that I think is just the most mispriced of them all.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I mean, Dave, you talk about going after these quarterbacks late, and first of all, I love that probably you and I are doing a live draft. No, very soon. Tomorrow.

[Dave Kluge]

Yes, tomorrow at 2:00pm we're going to be drafting on drafters trying to win $500,000. Dan Henry, actually, football guy, staffer, he won that contest last year. So we've got a nice partnership with drafters. Now. We don't have it on the schedule yet, but Alfredo, you'll also be joining me, I'm telling you right now, but within the next two or three weeks, I'm gonna have you come on the Monday night live stream as well. So you'll do one of these high drafts with me.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Cool. Cool. Thanks. That's my. She'll let me know in front of people. Like, by the way, we're doing that thing now.

[Dave Kluge]

You can't say no because of the.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Information, but we'll talk in the car, Dave. We'll definitely have a talk on the way home. Dude, you talk about like, these. These quarterbacks that are going later, and it's just. Yeah, I don't want to have to go and invest in a Baker Mayfield or Patrick Mahomes early like we're doing right now when I can get Drake May as quarterback 16. I'm looking at some of the other guys in ADP here. Jordan Love at quarterback 17, Trevor Lawrence at quarterback 12. I think there is the same amount of upside for a Trevor Lawrence as there is for a Baker Mayfield. And I know how crazy that is to say from everything we have seen. From everything we've seen. I know, I know. From everything we've seen, Baker Mayfield has been the better player. So don't. Don't hear what I'm not saying once again. But just like you said, Dave, same offense, Same offense with really good weapons around a guy like Trevor Lawrence. And you know who I actually really like? I like Bryce Young. He's going as quarterback 25. Like, he can just be your last pick of your draft where you don't even have to worry about quarterback the whole time. Obviously, that's a little risky, but, yeah, Cam Ward's another one. I mean, yeah, you can. You can really do like a little quarterback Frankenstein if you want. Just get back to streaming.

[Dave Kluge]

I think the. The earliest that I'm willing to kind of dip into the quarterback. Well, is Kyler Murray going off the board right now is the QB9, because he's got a very high ceiling. And then after Kyler Murray, then Brock Purdy, I like him as well. You Know, he's got some rushing upside that we saw last year. Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert. I think that's kind of the tier that I'm willing to get into the. The QB market, but I just don't want to pay up for any of the guys going ahead of them.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, I've. You mentioned Dak in there. I really like him. I really like him. I think we just underrate him every single year and we've seen him be productive and probably the best wide receivers pass catchers of his career right now, like, together. You know, I think you.

[Dave Kluge]

I mean, you go back to what he did with CD Lamb and Amari Cooper, but he was the overall one that year, so. Right. Yeah. You know, the upside.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, I think. I think we'll see it. All right, next guy I want to talk about here, I've mentioned a couple times this off season, and I kind of. I want to make sure that I stay here because there's a lot up in the air right now about Rasheed Rice and his looming suspension. But Xavier Worthy is a guy that I'm simply just not interested in drafting because of his cost right now, Dave. And he's a guy that ADP's got him going in the fourth round. Like, there's just. There's just a lot going on in the fourth and sometimes fifth round that I'm just. I'm not interested in specifically, like the guys I talked about so far, Sam Laporta, Xavier Worthy. Like, if I'm gonna look here at adp, at guys that I'd rather have in the fourth round, it's Ken Walker, it's Alvin Camara, it's Omarion Hampton. Like, that seems like a really good spot to start drafting some of those running backs. Even if I do want to invest early in tight end, I'm looking at George Kittle being a guy that I can go with there. But some of these guys that are going a little early, it feels like we're drafting them at their ceiling. We're drafting them at the spot that we want them to be. And this is so anti. Sigmund Bloom here because he's very much. We don't know the ceiling and the outlier could now be the median. And that could be the case here for Xavier Worthy. Maybe we've just. Maybe we've just scratched the surface with who he is, but we've seen these sort of breadcrumbs, these telltale signs from his college film to what he did as a rookie initially with Rasheed Rice on the field. And then really when it started to come together for him was when Rasheed Rice was gone. And we were kind of hoping that, like, okay, when I say we, I mean the royal we as like the fantasy community is that, you know, Xavier Word is going to take that neck step, right? It's not just going to be touchdowns. It's going to be volume. He's going to get more efficient with everything. His role completely changed when Rashid Rice came off the field. He moved into the slot for 40% of his snaps. His average depth of target cut in half so that these targets were easier and allowed for him to run after the catch. And then of course, on the big stage in NFL playoffs and super bowl, we're seeing touchdowns. And so it's just like, yeah, ever. All the marketing went really well for Xavier Worthy towards the end of the season. And now with the Rasheed Rice suspension looming. Listen, it could be. It could be two games, it could be six games, whatever it is. The problem is, is that when Rasheed Rice gets back, that's the Rasheed Rice role. And I think even more so is that even with Rasheed Rice out, the Chiefs have planned for this. They went out and they draft Jalen Royals, who I think matches exactly what Rasheed Rice does and can probably do that role better than Xavier Worthy, which I know is weird to say about a rookie who, who had such a good season, but Jalen Royals fits that underneath guy. I'm going to catch and run and be sort of that same thing that Rasheed Rice and Debo Samuel will have been. Whereas Xavier Worthy, we saw what they wanted to do. They wanted him to be the field stretcher. They want him to be the guy that can do the Tyreek Hill things downfield. And just unfortunately, that's not been a thing that Xavier Worthy has been good at, is winning contested catches and consistently being able to track the ball well. So I, I just, I don't want to be taking this risk on Xavier Worthy so early in my drafts. I've got him as my wide receiver 29. And looking at where he's going right now, Dave, he's going at wide receiver 22 in drafts, and I think that's only going to go up as more news about Rasheed Rice comes out.

[Dave Kluge]

You know, the NFL season is a whirlwind. Like so much just gets lost in the fold. But before they put Xavier Worthy in that role, they tried putting juju Smith Schuster in that role. And then juju Smith Schuster got hurt and they went out and they traded for DeAndre Hopkins and then DeAndre Hopkins just, you know, completely fell off the age cliff. Xavier Worthy was put in that role out of absolute necessity because he was just the last man standing. Exactly. Yeah. And I look at it, you know, I, I just kind of thought about this this morning when we were talking pre show and we were talking about the players we were going to discuss today. And I went back and I looked at like the old Eagles team and it feels like there is similar archetypes here where Jeremy Macklin was that underneath guy, the Rashi Rice type of player and he was very consistent. You knew what he was getting every single week. Then you had desean Jackson who would have the huge blow up weeks. I think Xavier Worthy is more of that desean Jackson prototype. The issue is that he doesn't have the ball tracking skills that Sean Watson did. We saw it last year consistently in the first half of the season. They were trying to hit Xavier Worthy on these deep shots and he just couldn't connect with Patrick Mahomes. So they had to start manufacturing these short, easy, gimmicky touches for him. But he doesn't have the play strength to do that. He can't make the catches through traffic, he can't make plays after the catch. So I think them going out and getting Jalen Royals does signal that Rashi Rice might miss some time. But that's exactly what Jalen Royles did in college. He's going to take that short little slant, make a big play after the catch, break some tackles. And I think Xavier Worthy goes right back into that very inefficient role that we saw early in the season. Now of course he could connect every now and then. We saw it in the super bowl, him connecting on a deep ball. He does have the speed to get behind defenses, so there could be the occasional blow up game here. But I'm not expecting the usage we saw over the second half to carry over. I think that what we saw in the first half of the season where he is stretching the field and missing on these deep plays, I think that's a lot more what we're going to see now in year two.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Let's segue.

[Dave Kluge]

That being said, I did move him up a little bit on my board because he's one of those players, like maybe, maybe FOMO is the best way to describe it. Like I don't want to miss out on Xavier Worthy because he has a very good athlete on a good offense and that alone is a little bit alluring. It's really easy to poke holes in the profile, but I'm sprinkling them in like maybe 5% of my leagues just in case I'm wrong.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, I think that's important to point out too because like I think there are people that will do their rankings differently where for example, I think if someone, most people will say hey, this player is my number, my wide receiver 29 in my rankings, I would draft him ahead of my wide receiver 30. That is the case for I think a lot of people for me and I think you as well. We're doing that more so on projections where this player is most likely to finish the season. However, that player at wide receiver 30 has some better upside. And I'd probably rather draft wide receiver 30 over wide receiver 29 in that round, which I know it's like to people hearing that you're like, well that's stupid. Just rank that player higher. But they're like you. I think there's a lot more nuance which is why I love doing these shows because we can explain the context of it it all instead of it just being so black and white of like this player is ranked ahead of this one. Like fantasy football rankings are not that simple.

[Dave Kluge]

Exactly. And I think again like I feel like I'm annoying you by keep continuing to bring up this NFFC live stream that we did last night. But Joey Wright and I like we started off our draft running back, running back, tight end. So we didn't take a wide receiver in the first three rounds. And what we started doing is we weren't adhering to our rankings necessarily. But when we started attacking these mid round wide receivers, we, we were swinging for upside on every single pick. So we ended up walking away with four rookies. And in my flat rankings there were some veterans that I preferred ahead of those guys. But we said because we are backed up against a wall right now, we have such a weak wide receiver room, we don't want to take the vanilla shots on the Josh Downs is in those types of guys we're, you know my nickname. But you know, we were taking Luther Burden and Trey Harrison, these guys that have much wider ranges of outcomes because that's what you need to do in certain. So yeah, you know, flat list of rankings is great, but there's always nuance and added context that goes into those rankings.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Scratch that, I'm going to make that your nickname. Alfredo Brown and Vanilla shots. All right, Vanilla shots, hit us with your next player. Here it's another wide receiver and I.

[Dave Kluge]

Don'T Think we're going to get too much pushback on this one. Chris Godwin dude, that ankle injury is scaring me. We saw that picture going around from about a month ago where ankle is swollen, you see some clear atrophy in the calf, like he just doesn't look like himself. Had to get a second procedure done on that ankle this offseason. Still isn't practicing and I'm guessing that the team's concerns about Chris Godwin's ankle explained why they spent a first round pick on Emeka Igbuka. And on top of that, I mean Igbuka, we are getting like just a huge steady drumbeat about Emeka Igbuka. Baker Mayfield called him an absolute stud a couple of days ago. They've talked about his versatility, his ability to play inside and outside, but if he does take that inside role as the slot receiver, that is just terrible for Chris Godwin. Ryan Heath from Fantasy Point shared this a few days ago. In this slot, Chris Godwin over the last two years averages 2.58 yards per route run, which would be sixth among wide receivers, and he averages 0.58 fantasy or fantasy points per route run, which would be about seventh. So we're looking at like a top six, top seven wide receiver when he plays out of the slot. When he plays out wide, that yard per route run drops down to 1.78, which would be 46th, and the fantasy points per route run drops down to 51st, just 0.36. So a lot of numbers there. But basically what we're looking at is a top six top seven guy when he's playing out of the slot and a top 45 ish, top 55 ish guy when he plays out wide. So if Mecca Igbuga ends up taking over that role out of the slot, that pushes Godwin to a very inefficient role where he has to play out wide and isn't nearly the receiver he was. So we're looking at an aging guy coming off a season ending injury that required a second surgery, now has competition with a rookie who profiles for the role that he has been very valuable in. I, I like Chris Godwin the player a lot, but there are just so many red flags this year. I'm just not doing it. This feels a lot like Cooper cup last year. We're coming off a very, very good season and we just brushed off the concerns about Puka Nkua breaking out and Cooper cup just kind of fell off the age cliff and wasn't the player that he was. I'm not saying that's exactly what's going to happen with Chris Godwin, but it's definitely possible this year. And with where he is being drafted right now, his ADP of wide receiver 34, I've got him ranked as my wide receiver 46, which means I wouldn't be comfortable drafting him unless he falls like three to four rounds below adp. And even then, you know, it's not a click that I'd feel good about my drafts.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, there are just guys around Chris Godwin that I feel a lot more excitement. And that's the thing is like when you get later into the rounds, you, you don't need comfortability with players. You need excitement for what their upside could be. And I think that the upside for Chris Godwin gets limited by Emeka Igbuka and by the injury. Whereas if I'm looking at guys like, yes, I know I'm going to hear the, the groans and grumbles like through the screens here. But Chris Olave, I think has a much higher upside. Looking at Roman Dunes A taking the next step for the Bears has a much higher upside at the same cost. Even Jacoby Myers is like a safe player that still has top 24 upside being drafted at wide receiver 39. Like there are players, all of those.

[Dave Kluge]

Guys, like 10 spots ahead.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Khalil Shakir, another guy like this.

[Dave Kluge]

Ricky Pearson, Jaden Reed, Khalil Shah, Josh Downs, Matthew Golden, Jordan Addison. I'm taking all those guys ahead of Chris Godwin.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah. And like, and you mentioned one of the Josh Downs is getting drafted like two to three rounds later. So it's just if I can get the same player with better upside at a discounted price, I'm gonna do that every time. And I think that's a lot of what it is. It's not just looking at the player from that one pov, it's being able to look at that player and the surrounding areas, like what's on the map around that player so you can get the best value out of your drafts.

[Dave Kluge]

I am this close to putting Demario Douglas ahead of Chris Godwin after the week that he has had at camp, talking about how he's just seizing the opportunity playing as that slot receiver in the offense. I might do it.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I'm not there yet. Maybe I will be. Maybe I'm, I'm in Stefan Diggs. All right, let me go to my next guy here. And this is a similar situation, but it's not injury related. It's more just offense related and just Seeing the outlier season from Jerry Judy, wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns. And this is a guy that you look at it, you mentioned, you mentioned Ryan Heath and he, he does great work with the, the stats that carry over and are very predictive of fantasy success. And one of those being a first down per route run. Jerry Judy was 44th in that metric. And so this wasn't a player that was highly efficient. 30% of his fantasy points last season came in two games. One of those being the revenge game where you get the revenge narrative against the Denver Broncos. Like this was something where he wasn't. It's not even the volatility that you look for in guys that can win you weeks because he just simply didn't. When a third, nearly a third of your fantasy production comes in two games, you're a guy that's actually more likely to just lose me weeks over and over and over. And I think we can look at last year and say, man, the Browns were in a really bad situation offensively. They're still in a really bad, if not worse situation offensively. Like last year, at least it was Jameis chucking the ball to Jerry Judy. Like now it's worse. He finished outside of the top 50 wide receivers in a third of his games. Like he had to survive on these games with insane volume but poor efficiency. Just over and over and over. We get Cedric Tillman coming back. You've got a Browns offense that wants to establish the run. We're not sure what's going to happen there with Quinshon, Judkins and you know, the other guys on the offense there. But the fact there are so many question marks on a bad offense for a guy that needed to be efficient to be a fantasy success worries me because it tells me that with him that volume isn't even going to be king. With him, volume didn't quite matter. It was highly efficient performances in those two games that he had. And so I don't want to be drafting this guy where he's going in his sixth round. ADP, I've got him as the wide receiver 39 and I honestly, I want to move him lower. Like I, when I look at the ADP and I see Jerry Judy or Stefan Diggs, I want Stefan Diggs every single time and that the Patriots are another struggling offense. But the upside is there for Stefan Diggs with, with getting volume in a guy that we saw him doing it earlier in the season on a game to game basis. So Jerry Judy, I'm just out.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I mean this is the second time we brought up Stefan Diggs. So I've just got to say, you know, Jerry Judy, I've got him a few spots higher than you. Wide receiver 36, but I've got Stefan Diggs as my wide receiver 24. I mean, like, I think, oh, daddy mispriced player in fantasy right now. I've been aggressively taking Stefan Diggs in almost every single one of my drafts. But yeah, when it comes down to Jerry Judy, I've got George Pickens, Ricky Pierce Hall, Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, Cortland Sutton, quite a few guys ahead of him. And we talk so much about the Colts and how they are going to be so like the, the, the, the quarterback in Indianapolis is really going to change up the projections whether Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. But you could say the same about the Browns because if Joe Flacco is out there, give me Jerry Judy. Like I, I will be fine with Jerry Judy if we're getting 17 games of Joe Flacco. But if Kenny Pickett's out there, Dylan Gabriel's out there, if Shador Sanders is out there, I don't want any part of this passing attack.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I don't think we're getting 17 games of Flacco even if he is named.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I don't know if we're getting much of anything. Like it sounds like we're getting, you know, kind of this rotation out of camp and just where the Browns are at right now, like what benefit is there to putting out this old veteran? Like they're not going to be in playoff contention. They're not getting any sort of look at the young guys that they have in the quarterback room. So while Joe Flacco might be the best quarterback, it doesn't really help the Browns at all at where they are. Like they're in the midst of a rebuild and putting a 40 something year old quarterback out there doesn't help them assess their talent. So yeah, if we, we, we get, get down to Kenny Pickett, don't want that at all. You know, we've seen he has really struggled to elevate any wide receivers around him. Dylan Gabriel and Shador Sanders, I have very little faith in them either. So yeah, Jerry Judy is another player that if you look at the projections with Joe Flacco, you can, you can really convince yourself that Jerry Judy should be going in the top 20. But then when you zoom out and take that 30,000foot view of the Cleveland Browns as a whole, you just say no, I, I don't think I want to do that.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Dude, honestly, the Browns, just go, go and start your young guys. Like, just let them all do it and let Joe Flacco be the Udonis Haslam of the Browns and just kind of hang out in, in the locker room and be, be the guy I know he could play. It doesn't do you any good to try to win games right now. Like, just seriously get the first pick. Let these rookies play, see if you've got something there. But, I mean, I just don't want any part of it for fantasy. All right, Dave, this is what you promised everybody. And by the way, I learned over the last week while on vacation. You're familiar with book talk. Are you familiar with that?

[Dave Kluge]

Like, TikTok for books?

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So this is, this is where, like, the, the. And, you know, sorry if I'm, like, lifting the veil for, for the audience here, but this is where it tends to be. Some, some of our ladies are reading these smutty smut books.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

And, and they have, they have levels of stuff spice, I've been told where you'll get, like, a chili pepper ranking from one to three, three being ultimate spice. If I had to give you a chili pepper ranking for your fantasy football smut right now, this is a, this is three chili peppers for you, Dave.

[Dave Kluge]

It's a Carolina Reaper. Is that what we're talking here? Yep. I gotta say, man, my wife reads some of those books, and we were on a plane not too long ago, and I just, like, glanced over and just caught, like. And I was like, what do you reading? Like you were.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Don't do it.

[Dave Kluge]

Close that.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Don't do it. Don't do. Gabby reads him, too. Don't do it. It's gonna make you question everything.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. This one, I've tiptoed around it a little bit, but I'm ready to plant a flag on it. I, I, I'm just so out on a Monroe St. Brown this year, and, and it sucks. You know, you look at my rankings, like, it's not a huge dissension between where I have him ranked and where the public, the consensus has him ranked. But where you're going that early in drafts, people adhere closely to adp. So right now, football guys has him ranked as the wide receiver 6. ADP has him ranked as the wide receiver 6. I've got him as my wide receiver 11, which means that he would just have to fall basically a whole round for me to be able to get him. And that has yet to happen in any drafts that I've been in. So I don't have any Amanda St. Brown right now. And we talked about this with Sam laporta. You know, usage is the one thing that I am looking for more than anything. And by target rate, you know how many targets he draws on every single route that he runs. His rookie season, 24.7 was 31st, but we saw that over the second half the year jumped to about 28% where he was one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL. In 2022, he was third in target rate. In 2023 he was fifth in target rate. In 2024, fell to 17th in target rate, which was worse than what he was getting over the second half of his rookie season last year. In 2024, dips in target share, target rate, air yard share, targets per game, receptions, first down, fantasy points per game and yards per game. He made up for it with a career high in touchdowns. Now I think anybody who drafted Aman or Saint Brown is saying like what are you talking about? He was still the wide receiver three last year. He was because he scored a lot of touchdowns but he had the worst usage since we've seen since the. People were frustrated rookie season. What was that?

[Alfredo A. Brown]

People were really frustrated throughout the year. I remember people being like dang, this was, this was a wasted pick. Amanra is like he was sort of a bust this year, which is crazy to say looking back. That's why like the season long numbers do tend to like inflate things a little bit. And looking back at 17 games and like the seasons, fantasy football gets played in these, these pockets of you know, four or five games and you know, it's when the Lions got hot, man, the Lions got hot for those five games and that's when everything started going their way. Like I, I do think the Lions in general are a little bloated in average draft position.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah, I mean there was an eight week stretch where amount of same route a Monroe St. Brown scored nine touchdowns. He was averaging over a touchdown per game. But if you look beyond the touchdowns, there were games in there that like if he didn't score a touchdown we would be completely panicking. I mean four receptions for 37 yards. He had a game where he had two catches for seven yards, happened to score a touchdown in that game. So he still, you know, was playable in your flex spot. 56 yards, 60 yards, 45 yards. I mean this is not what we expect from Amanra St Brown. And again, you know I was looking, you know, the, the, the, the overall Fantasy production, the raw production was fine, but he was third in outperforming his expected fantasy points last year. He was, he would have been the wide receiver 19 in expected fantasy points based on his usage last year. But the touchdowns just really inflated his overall finish. So talked about this with Baker Mayfield, talked about it with Sam Laporta last year. He's just a huge regression candidate right now. Jameson Williams broke out and we are very much so in on Jameson Williams this year. Sam Laporta is going to be healthy after he spent the first half of last year dealing with an injury. There's been this huge coaching brain drain where they have lost not only Ben Johnson, but also like every single positional coach talked about how that team was just red hot over the last six weeks of the season last year. That really inflated a lot of the values for all of these Lions players. But if Jared Goff goes back to his career averages, Amanra St. Brown maintains the usage that we saw last year. There's just no way to justify him being a first round pick right now. And that's still where he's going off the board in fantasy drafts.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

All right, dude, I, I gotta tell you, this is a little nutso crazy. I'm not gonna lie. I see the downside for Imani. I see the downside and like I get it. I've got him right now ranked as my wide receiver 7. I can be talked into wide receiver 8. So like in that, in that order. Right. I've got Nico Collins at wide receiver 6. 6.

[Dave Kluge]

Yep.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

A monor at 7. I can push a Monroe down below Brian Thomas Jr. I can push him below Drake London. I, I can't push him below AJ Brown. Lad McConkey, JSN. Like I can't get there with him. I think 9 is my absolute floor and I double checked this. At wide receiver 11, you are lowest in the industry on Amano St. Brown.

[Dave Kluge]

That's all right. I'll take it. Yeah, I've got Lad McConkey and Jackson Smith, Najigba ahead of, of Aman or Saint Brown. Guys that are going to be the clear cut wide receiver ones on their team with very little target competition. You know, I, I just get nervous seeing that fall off in usage last year and this is something Jeff Bell and I have talked about a little bit on the Dynasty show. But Amanda St. Brown and I know people are going to like be so upset that I'm bringing up prospect profiles. But just bear with me and listen for a second here. Amanda St. Brown was A relatively unathletic fourth round pick who was pushed into the slot role when they didn't have any other wide receivers available. Jameson Williams was a flawless prospect, like drafted 11th overall with a torn ACL and then he had the gambling suspension. You know it was a really rough couple of years to start his NFL career. But if you're looking in a vacuum at Jameson Williams and Amanda St. Brown, Jameson Williams is faster. He can get behind defenses in a way that a minor St. Brown can. He can now run the full route tree that we've seen just slowly kind of grown over these years. You look at what he was doing at Alabama and you look at what Amanda St. Brown was doing at USC and they are just tears of difference in talent level right now. And I know Amanda St. Brown has really, you know, defied the odds of a fourth round pick and he has been a steady player over the last couple of years but I think in a vacuum Jameson Williams is the better player. And we're starting to see now it doesn't take a whole lot to just shave a little bit off of a minor St. Brown's production or I'm sorry I'm under St. Brown's usage and push that in Jameson Williams favor. Jameson Williams is a much more efficient player. It I think these guys are much closer in projections than ADP makes it out to be. I've got Amanda same Brown as my wide receiver 11 and I've got Jameson Williams as my wide receiver 18. I think it is very much so in the range of outcomes this year that Jameson Williams outscores Amanda St. Brown in fantasy.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I think you're right. That is with it is within the realm of possibility. There is a world. I'm a big Jameson Williams fan. I was big on him coming out of Alabama. He was my wide receiver one in that draft class and I got crushed for it. And it's because I see, I saw the potential going forward and that's what you want. You want a ball of clay that you can mold in the NFL. He wasn't the most NFL ready prospect and that's. That's what dings these guys through the prospect process. The process. I've got him as my wide receiver 23 and I've got a Monroe St. Brown as my wide receiver seven. I cannot in good conscience say that Jameson Williams is a better player than a modern sample. Like that's where you and I are going to. I'm going to vehemently disagree that I'm honor Saint Brown is a much better player. Than Jameson Williams. Does one offer more upside for his draft cost? Yes, and that's where I'll agree with you. You, if it came down to it, and I have to say, okay, draft Jameson Williams in the, what is it, sixth or seventh round versus drafting Aman or Saint Brown in the first or early second round. I'll, I'll do, I'll go the Jameson route there. But yeah, I don't, I don't know that I'm honoring a guy. Like, I just have to avoid, like this. This is going to be where you and I disagree. Yeah.

[Dave Kluge]

And I mean the reality, like, I just don't get him in drafts because when I'm at that point in the draft, I easily prefer Nico Collins, I easily prefer Brian Thomas, I easily prefer Drake, London. And then I have a Monroe St. Brown in the same tier, LAD McConkey and JSN. But by the time those first eight wide receivers are off the board, first nine wide receivers are off the board, you know, Amanda St. Brown being a part of that top nine. I, I just never get a monor Saint Brown. I mean, I, I, I might even be convinced to sprinkle in some Amanda St. Brown over lad McConkey. But the real, like, I, I can't take Amanra St. Brown ahead of Drake, London, Brian Thomas or Nico Collins. I've got him in the same tier as Lad McConkey and Jackson Smith to Jigba, but just having him down, all it takes is being like three spots lower on a player than the consensus for you to never get that player. And unfortunately, that's just where I'm at with a modern St. Brown this year.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, that's fair. That's fair. All right, we'll stop fighting and last player on here so we can get out. Last player that I've got, I think is a pretty easy one. It's Debo Samuel and Dave, like, I think you're also going to agree with me on this one. I think that the consensus has sort of caught up on the draft cost. But even at the cost, like, I just don't want it because we go back to the lesson from this episode, which is just when you're getting into these later rounds, it's going for upside. It's getting players that you think can finish well above where they're being drafted. And right now, Debo Samuel, he's my wide receiver 48, I gotta pull up the ADP. I should have had that there. It's not on my, it's not on my show sheet. Dave Here we go. I'm scrambling. Wide receiver, 37 is the ADP right now. I don't think it's. It's likely that he finishes well above that. Like, this is a guy that everything would have to go right in terms of touchdowns. Jane Daniels stays healthy. He gets enough targets with Tara McLaurin on the field. Like, there's a lot of things that have to go right. And Debo himself has to stay healthy. We just saw last year, he was not the same player anymore. Like, I don't know, you remember the. The final seven weeks, weeks of the season, Dave, he only had one game. Like, he had one game over 22 receiving yards. This was just. This was just not the same guy. Like, he wasn't able to get open. You're gonna have to rely on a guy that. And I get it. The training camp videos show he's in the best shape of his life. We do this all the time. It's just not good business to be investing in wide receivers over the age of 30 that need to rely on athleticism to win and that need to rely on. I don't want to call them gadgety plays, but a lot of. A lot of design plays where everything has to go right. And that is kind of the thing that's happened with Debo. And I know Jaden Daniels last year, he threw plenty of screens, and this is something that they want to get involved, get Debo involved with. Debo's gonna be. Have to be able to break tackles. Debo is going to have to be able to create yards after catch, which I know throughout his career he has been able to do. He is a unicorn. That has been something that he has been able to do over the last last five years. So there is. There's a sliver of hope here where everything goes well, but at his age, with his injuries he's had, with the way that last season ended, I don't want to have to make that bet here. I don't see the same upside.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. And I real quick, you did say over 30. He is still just 29, but, man, he is like aging on a bell cow running back.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I think that's what it is. Yeah.

[Dave Kluge]

Yeah. He is not aging on a typical wide receiver curve with the way that he plays, his. His tenacity, all the carries that he has had. I don't think you can look at him on the. The same curve as other guys. And then the one other thing is, like you said, you know, the yards after conduct or the yards after catch, something that he's really been renowned for over the last five years. It has gone down each of the last five years. In 20, 20, 12.1 yards after the catch per reception. Do you realize how insane that is? Alfredo averaging over 12 yards after the catch per reception, dips to 10 the year after 8.8. The year after 8.8 again the year after that. Last year, career low, 8.3 yards after cond. Or yards after the catch per reception. You also look at his broken tackle rate. He broke one tackle on 42 receptions last year. He used to average breaking a tackle one in every six carries. Last year on 42 carries, he had one broken tackle. I mean, he just is not the player that he was. Those are the metrics that I care about for running backs. Yards after the catch, yards after contact, broken tackle rate. I judge Debo Samuel the same way that I look at running backs because he's not a receiver who is just going to line up and beat a man in press coverage and make a play. He is a guy who is going to rely on his athleticism and all of the advanced efficiency metrics are telling us that that athleticism is just waning. And I realized like, you know, this team does need somebody to play alongside Terry McLaurin and he can get fed some short touches here and there, but I, I just, just. Yeah, I'm with you. I forget where you said you have Debo Samuel rank, but I've got him as my wide receiver 51. So like very, very low on Debo.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, I've got him as my wide receiver 48. And it's, it's, it's the game you play. Like when you start to look at what is around that player. I'd much rather see what the upside is with Matthew Golden. I'd much rather see if, if Brandon Ayuk comes back as the same guy he was prior to injury. I'd much rather take Khalil Shakir, who can lead his team and targets with the MVP at quarterback.

[Dave Kluge]

Douglas.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah, okay. Okay. So that's. We're gonna wrap up the show. I mean, you're not, you're not wrong. You're not wrong. I think I, I would rather do that. But Dave, this has been fun, man. It's. I think we, we gave enough context as to why we don't want to take these players. It's not just that we hate the players or we hate their off. Like there's so much more to it. It's always about you don't like the price for the players and what the. The potential upside could be.

[Dave Kluge]

Especially remember that when you're being mean to us in the comments.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

We're people too. We actually roast Dave for the Aman Rossane Brown thing. It helps the algo. Keep boosting. Keep boosting, guys.

[Dave Kluge]

This is a tough show, though. Like, jokes aside, this is a tough show because, you know, it's fun to hype players up. We love that part of fantasy football. It's not nearly as fun to besmirch the names of these athletes who have given their life to the game. But at the end of the day, you know, we don't dislike any of these players. It just comes down to value and projections. These are just players that we think are overvalued compared to where we have put in the work. And we've done the rankings and we've done the projections and we say, I just don't think that they can get to this value that the. The market thinks they can.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, guys, we are. We're gonna be back again, by the way. First week of doing two episodes per week. We're gonna be back again. Is it the first week of doing two episodes?

[Dave Kluge]

I don't even know I was gonna say. That's news to me, man.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

I think we did it last week. Now. No, well, well, we got the hall of Fame game. We're finally going to have football. It's not going to be great football, but we're going to have football on tv. It's not. It's not great. It's not great.

[Dave Kluge]

Every year I get so excited for the hall of Fame game. And then by like four minutes into the first quarter, I'm just like, all right, let's see if there's a new Bob's Burgers episode.

[Alfredo A. Brown]

No. Yeah, it's not it. It's not it. But I'm looking at. I'm looking at the schedule here, David. Next, you know, Thursday, we're gonna have early round players to target in your drafts. And then the following week we'll be going on to mid round steals, late round sleepers, you know, kind of just working our way down the draft board there as we continue to fine tune our rankings. I don't know. There's also travel here at the end of the week. For me, maybe we push that to Monday and we just go straight into a. We'll let you guys know. You're gonna find out. So make sure subscribe. We don't even know the schedule, so make sure you're subscribed to the YouTube channel and to the podcast and Apple or Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. And of course, make sure you're following us us on all the social media platforms. Alfredo A. Brown, Dave Kluge. Because we're going to be putting that stuff out there for you guys. But as always, I just want to thank everybody for watching and listening all the way through. You guys truly just make this a. I've been using this term a lot lately, but a labor of love. You know, it's, we enjoy it, we put in a lot of work to it, but it's, it's all for you guys, for the connection that we get to make and the amount of fun that we get to have. So seriously, thank you guys all so much for watching and listening and for myself and for Dave. We'll see you next time. Adios.

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