← Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
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- [00:01]
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- [01:15]
A
Welcome in to another episode of the Football Guys fantasy football show. I'm Dave Kluge, joined with Bob Harris. And Bob, last week we kind of set the table for what could be a fun week of free agency. And, and today we feast. There is so much to discuss. I mean it seems like every domino has fallen already.
- [01:33]
C
Yeah, yeah, there's still a handful out there but, but there's been a lot of activity, a lot of attention put on the Max Crosby situation as well. Adding a layer of chaos to, to, to especially like Monday, Tuesday, it was, it was pretty much off the charts those days and it slowed down a bit then but, but still some nice moves happening and some, and some that are going to have fantasy impacts. You and I were talking just before we came on. Like a lot of the impact is going to be beyond the player signed and the players already there, left behind or in new places.
- [02:01]
A
Absolutely. And that's what we're going to try to do is kind of think outside the box. Like yeah, it's really easy to say Alec Pierce got a mega contract, he's a winner. But like let's talk about the ripple effects that that has and some of the winners and losers from these transactions. Let's start with the big news that came in yesterday. Probably the poorest kept secret in the NFL. Kyler Murray signs with a veteran, veteran minimum contract to go to the Minnesota Vikings. So Bob, takeaways here. What does this mean for Kyler Murray? What does it mean for J.J. mcCarthy? What does it mean for Trey McBride, Justin Jefferson, T.J. hawkinson, Jordan Addison, Marvin Harrison Jr. There are so many players that I think are impacted by this move.
- [02:35]
C
Yeah. For J.J. mcCarthy in the news is not good. The list of players, quarterbacks who had gone in the first round who have lost their jobs or not kept them or is, you know, it's not, there's not been a lot of success with that. Trey Lance, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel come immediately to mind. None of them ever made it back. That doesn't mean redemption arcs aren't things and maybe we. That's what we see with Kyler Murray here who you know, came into the draft, came in the league as the first pick overall in the draft, had some initial success and by the way, not without fantasy success along the way the entire time that rushing equity he has is. Makes him, you know, makes him playable for us pretty much no matter what. We just need him to have a job. But injuries the last few years have been an issue. He goes with to an offensive echo system that's known for being great for quarterbacks. Is he a Kevin OConnell prototypical quarterback? He is not. So that's going to be interesting. We'll have to see some adjustments there. But you have to view this as good news for Justin Jefferson who finished last year as what, wide receiver 20. But, but it was what, much worse than that. I mean like, you know, if you
- [03:37]
A
look at the finish 42, J.J. mcCarthy.
- [03:40]
C
Right. It was, it was horrible outcome. And so I've always said, you know, he had a quarterback proof card. We can go back to two when Kirk Cousins was hurt and McCarthy and Jefferson came back from a hamstring injury of his own and he was wide receiver three with Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullins and, and what was it? Jaren Hall. So he was dominant. Right. So, so there's hope here for him to rejuvenate. Jordan Addison also obviously become someone, you know, that maybe moves back into wide receiver 3 territory again or, or becomes a playable asset. So. So mostly good for everybody, not good for J.J. mcCarthy.
- [04:17]
A
Yeah. Now something I noticed when I was writing my article about Kyler Murray yesterday, and maybe I'm big brain in this a little bit, but there have been a lot of quarterbacks under Kevin o' Connell that have that high pedigree, guys who are drafted, you know, top three in the draft. Of course we've got Jared Goff, maybe not the best success for story for Kevin o' Connell, but you know, look decent with him. And then of course Matthew Stafford Wins his first super bowl with Kevin o', Connell, and then we get Sam Darnold coming in there and completely resuscitating his career. I think the myth of the Kevin o' Connell University has maybe gotten a little bit too big when we say that Daniel Jones, just by being in his mere presence for half a season, completely turned his career around. But is this the type of impact you're expecting Kevin o' Connell to have on Kyler Murray?
- [04:57]
C
I think if he just gets some. I, you know, I think this is an opportunity for Kyler Murray to make Kevin OConnell look very good. Right. Like, if we get, if we get peak Kyler Murray, what do we have to go back to 2020 or whatever? Quarterback 2. Did he finish? I mean, Josh Allen, the rushing equity, the, you know, he's willing to throw the ball down the field. Seems like, you know, as we moved on in Arizona, there was some reluctance to, you know, put the ball up for his targets. I'm hoping he doesn't have that issue with Justin Jefferson. I doubt he will. He'll probably hear about it. But. But, yeah, I think, like, maybe we're putting too much on OConnell, but he has been part of this. He knows how to get the most out of these guys. And clearly, you know, I've talked about that redemption arc. He's been a part of that for multiple players. So I would love to see him be that for Kyler Murray as well, who gets to play for the, you know, his childhood favorite team. And so, you know, a lot of great stories here. I think the big takeaway for us as fantasy investors is, is the. The price probably isn't going to rise up to unacceptable levels. Right. Like, if he's still going, like, there may be people who still who view him as a quarterback one or take that chance on him. Good luck to them. But if I can get him as a high, you know, a high quarterback two at the top of the quarterback two ranks, I'll take a chance on that upside all day, as long as I have a solid, steady Eddie ahead of him.
- [06:13]
A
Yeah, and you talk about it, you know, the, the rushing. He is fourth in the league in rushing yards for a quarterback since coming into the league in 2019. He's seventh in fantasy points per game. So he definitely overstayed his welcome in Arizona. You know, losing record, lack of playoff success. But those things don't really matter for us in fantasy football. Like, if you're rushing the ball a lot and you're throwing the ball to Justin Jefferson, And Jordan Addison. I can talk myself into getting excited about that. So throw this guy. He consistently gives us at worst kind of back end QB1 production. So assuming he sits in that tier, I'm going to be drafting him pretty aggressively in drafts this year. Spending a lot of time on Kyler Murray. We're not going to spend five minutes talking about every single player here. But Malik Willis is another very interesting player to discuss. Follow Jeff Halfley from Green Bay down to Miami. Again, one of the poorly kept secrets. We kind of knew this was going to happen, but we don't know a lot about what this offense is going to look like now if this was a Mike McDaniel offense with Malik Willis, Devon Achan, Jalen Waddle, I'd be getting very, very excited. But we don't know exactly what this is going to look like here. So for fantasy purposes, how are we looking at Malik Willis? How are we feeling about Jalen Waddle, Devon Achan and the rest of the Miami Dolphins?
- [07:18]
C
I like the odds. I like Jalen Waddle is going to be a guy that I'm going to be looking at at drafts right now. You know, watching his ADP is really reasonable. There's a chance that he really emerges as that number one threat with Malik Les assuming we see the Malik Willis we saw in his 11 appearances in Green Bay, three starts completed, 78.6% of his passes, 972 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions. Bring some rushing equity as well. I like the landing spot. Like there were two landing spots it seemed, you know, Miami and Arizona for the obvious reasons, the connections Michael Flor with Matt would have some inside knowledge but. But who better than the guys John Eric Sullivan, by the way, the GM in Miami also comes from Green Bay. They've been around this guy every day. They know the work ethic. They understand where he's got, where he's come from. And if you remember he was pretty bad. It was pretty bad in Tennessee. He gets to Green Bay. Coaching apparently matters. I'm always mindful of another Green Bay Packer. I'm old enough to remember a guy named Matt, Matt Flynn who used turned a very narrow band of of high end production in the for the Green Bay packers into a big contract in Seattle only to be supplanted by the rookie Russell Wilson right off the, right off the get go. So I mean like. But that's a gamble Miami's taking but they're not making a blind. They're making it with some information that probably we don't have and what we have is pretty good. So I like the pieces there. I like that Sullivan has talked about waddle and HN is building blocks. We know H hand's super capable as a receiver and can make some hay there as well. So I think this, like, I feel like this is a smart gamble for Miami. I don't know if it's a smart gamble for fantasy investors. The price will be dirt cheap. If you want to go with it, it's perfectly fine. I think that's, you know, you're not going to pay an exorbitant price. And those are the kind of plays that can be league winning, league winning moves.
- [09:03]
A
And I think you're spot on there. You know, we're not at the point in the offseason yet where we're dissecting ADP and all this sort of stuff. But we saw last year, quarterback is deep. And the guys who paid up for quarterback in their fantasy drafts more often than not regretted it. The guys who just sat back and waited and took whoever fell to them and streamed off the waiver wire. That seemed to be the winning recipe last year. Back in QB1, Malik Willis probably falling like the QB20 range. These are the darts that I want to be throwing late in drafts rather than paying up for the guys who were running hot last year. That can cool off this year. Daniel Jones returning to the Colts. Not only did he return on what we thought was going to be a short deal, but they gave him a two year, $88 million extension. Bob, I, I crunched the numbers. Daniel Jones will have made over $200 million in career earnings by the time he turns 30 years old. It's quite a good run for Daniel Jones considering he's been, you know, league average quarterback. He's doing pretty well for himself financially.
- [10:01]
C
Last year he was not league average, though at least in the games he was healthy. He came out of the shoot. And like, you know, you mentioned the time with Kevin o', Connell, also Shane Steichen, Anthony Richardson is what sticks in our memory. But we should look back to Justin Herbert, Jalen hurts. Both quarterbacks who developed nicely under Steichen or with Steichen as part of it. Jones was quarterback five over the first 10 games last year, finished his quarterback 10, had kind of a rough late reseason run. The interceptions and turnovers started becoming an issue again. Something that's been a buckle his entire career. But for the Most part completed 261 and 384 passes at 68%, 19 touchdowns, just eight center interceptions he has the five rushing touchdowns. He's not without rushing equity. Don't make him run a long ways. He will fall down at some point. But, but he is capable in that regard. Look, he's a good fit for this offense. It's, you know, we'll talk about Alec Pierce and the move to my Michael Pittman, but there have been some interesting moves. But you have Jonathan Taylor there who is going to be a guy that's going to take heat off quarterbacks all day long. So I think this is best, this is the best outcome for Daniel Jones and people interested in him.
- [11:03]
A
So when I look at what the Colts did last year, I can't help but think about the 2024 New Orleans Saints where for the first month of the season they were the best offense in football. Like they had just completely figured it out, all off the charts in every efficiency metric we care about. And then they just cratered after that and didn't really recapture that magic. When I look at the Colts, I see a very similar trajectory. But how much of that downfall are we just chucking up to the injury? Because even you talk about it before the buy, there were the sacks, the interceptions, the fumbles, there were all these things wrong. But then we found out that he was playing on a broken leg and then while playing through the broken leg, then he tears his Achilles. So clearly some injury issues there. Do you think that's what caused that fall off after the first month of the season or do you think the league kind of figured it out?
- [11:46]
C
Oh, maybe a little bit of both. So the truth, I, I like to look at the first 10 games when he's fully healthy. Colts were eight and two top six. Jones was top six in completion percentage. They were averaging about 30 points a game, 31 points a game. That fell off to like 28, you know, during the, during the start of the nosedive until Jones was lost against the Jaguars and then, you know, then it cratered. So I don't know that, I don't know that the cratering, what, you know, maybe it was injury related, but I'm, I'm going to put more Stock in that 10 game run to start the season than I am the next four games or two games and the subsequent fall for the rest of the team.
- [12:22]
A
Next one we're going to talk about Tua Tagovailoa signs with the Atlanta Falcons. Bob, I feel like this one we're just blindly speculating here. We don't really completely know what's going on. I assume if Michael Penix is healthy for week one. He'll probably be the starter. This could be kind of an early season bridge while Penix returns, but maybe Tua just comes out and outright wins his job. Like I said, I think we're kind of blindly speculating here. Do you have any insight that I might be overlooking?
- [12:47]
C
Yeah, well, I don't know you're overlooking it, but I think you set the table nicely to me. You know, Michael Penix has been saying for quite some time and you know, I know that the initial report said it was a partially torn acl. Whatever, it's still got repaired, still going to take time. He, you know, he says he's going to be ready for week one. I don't know.
- [13:04]
A
Everybody's surgery at this point in the off season goes well and it was much smaller than expected. Everything's a success, right?
- [13:09]
C
It was timely at least. You know, like some of these guys, they have the MCL damage or whatever, they have to wait the six weeks or, or what to get the ACL repair so they can start to rehab like you know, Patrick Mahomes case. You know, quick surgery, quick start to rehab. Great news. Pennix seemed like a similar thing, but nonetheless, I mean he was okay. I don't, you know, I don't know. It wasn't too long ago that Tua has put up, put up some phenomenal numbers. He led the NFL in passing yards in 20, 23 at 4, 600 passing yards, 29 touchdown passes played all 18 games. Didn't get hurt. You know. So I think a lot of the concerns around him or have been about the big contract he signed, his injury risk and, and the fall off and I don't know if that was all his. He's been inconsistent, you know, for the, for the most part I'm being kind of pretty inconsistent early last season and just you know, finally forced his benching. So he'll need a redemption too. I feel bad for Kevin Stefanski. You think he'd walk into at some point a situation where there was actually quarterback. I think the tell here is Matt Ryan talking. I think right before the combine, probably at the super bowl or just after the super bowl that, you know, he's not, they're not going to commit to a starter. That tells you something right there. And so it is going to be a competition. We'll see who wins. I would not, I, I, I'll be surprised if Tua is not the week one starter but, but not crazy surprised.
- [14:26]
A
And you know, a little side note to this news as well is that they finally released Kirk Cousins. It feels like we've been hearing like that they're going to release Kirk Cousins for years. It finally happened. So Kirk Cousins on the market as well. We're hearing some smoke about him potentially being tied to the Raiders as kind of the veteran bridge while they get Mendoza up to speed. Still waiting for that domino to fall. Last quarterback we're going to talk about here, though, Geno Smith reunion with the Jets. I don't think anybody saw this one coming, but Gino is back in New York. What do you think is happening here? Do you think that maybe they spend that early first round pick on Ty Simpson, use Geno as the bridge? Or are they just fully committing to Geno Smith, hoping that he kind of figured it out during his time in Seattle?
- [15:07]
C
I think anyone who's watched the last two years of, you know, Smith would have a hard time fully committing to a guy who's throwing 50 interceptions over two seasons. Not all on him. I mean, like, it's been some bad circumstances. I don't know that he's going into great circumstances. He has some. Has a handful of weapons here. You know, Garrett Wilson, I will say, is going to be criminally underrated or at least underdrafted. I'm doing some drafts of early best balls right now, and just the price has been phenomenal for a guy who had a 30 target share. And I don't see that changing, you know, while he was healthy last year.
- [15:39]
A
Where's he going?
- [15:39]
C
Fourth round, third round after that?
- [15:42]
A
Really?
- [15:43]
C
Yeah. All right.
- [15:44]
A
Like I said, I haven't dipped my toes in the drafting streets yet, but if that's where he's going, I might have to.
- [15:48]
C
Yeah. Tail end of the third and the most recent one, but I've seen it into the fourth and I think that's crazy value right there. Tail end of the third is pretty good value to me. So. So, yeah, so I think that, you know, and we'll see what Mason Taylor can do and Breece Hall. But. But in general, like, you know, I guess when you look at the judges, how could it be worse? Well, every time I say that about somebody, it often gets worse. So it could get worse if we see last year's Geno. Right. Like just the turnover machine or the last few years. But. But if we get something closer to 20, 22, 20, 23, jito, maybe we'll be. I'll be very excited about it. I mean, he, you know, it's. It's not that long ago that he played pretty well. I don't think he has the supporting cast or the support in New York to get that done. But. And nobody should be drafting him like that. He should be well outside your quarterback two ranks to start the season.
- [16:36]
A
Yeah, I think the, the savvy move from the jets front office would probably be to trade back from that number two pick. You know, they're, they're not trying to win anything at this point. They are firmly in a rebuild. So trade back from two, acquire some picks. There's a lot of buzz about, you know, teams wanting to move up to two to get Jeremiah Love. Ty Simpson doesn't sound like anybody at the top of the draft very interested in him. So they could probably trade back into the middle of round one, still get the guy that would make most sense for their team building philosophy and, and get extra picks on top. So we'll see how that all shakes out. But now for the probably the best part of a fantasy football show, we're going to talk about the running backs here, and we got to lead off with Kenneth Walker going to the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, I wrote about this one, and it's really interesting. If you look at the history of Andy Reid running backs, like, I think there's, there's a handful of guys that jump out as being like the bell cows under Andy Reid who were really good in fantasy football. Brian Westbrook, LaShawn McCoy, Jamal Charles, Kareem Hunt. All four of those running backs are wildly different types of players stylistically. Like, none of them bring the same thing to the table. So when I look at Ken Walker, I think if you had to put him in one of those buckets, like he's kind of a little bit of Lashawn McCoy. Right. A lot of the freelancing, dancing in the backfield, looking for the cutbacks, all that sort of stuff. And where Seattle wasn't willing to live with that because of the losses you take on first down and the losses you take near the goal line. We have seen that Andy Reid is willing to just give a guy like that volume and live with the big plays, even if it means some downside. So I get excited about this, but am I just kind of coping and talking myself into a potential big workload, or do you think that's what Walker gets in Kansas City?
- [18:09]
C
No, it's fantasy. Investors were looking for upside plays. Right? Great prices. I don't know that we're going to get a great price on Kenneth Walker for very long. I harken back to, what was it, 2020. Clyde Edwards, Allaire who just by getting drafted by the Chiefs, rocketed into the first round of an adp. And it was a disappointment. I mean, you know, from both NFL and fantasy perspectives. You know, like, I've been like, last off season, I was one of Walker's biggest pushers. Right. I was the. If I wasn't the engineer of the hype train, I was certainly the conductor. And, and, and, but, but there are some realities that we, that we saw Seattle have to deal with. One is availability. That's going to always be an issue with him. Is he going to show up for training camp and be available one out of every four days or whatever? Did Seattle feel like they needed to preserve him or did they want to preserve him for the, for the end of the season? I mean, like, you know, those are questions that we'll find out the answers to. Also, the, the thing that you mentioned about Andy Reid and the success of various types of backs, I think says more about Andy Reid than it does about those backs. And for that I am optimistic. And, and look, he goes into a good offense. There's a good offensive line. So I like, I thought Travis ETM would be a better fit here with bring a little more receiving, a little more versatility. Kenneth Walker again, would like us to know he is a very good receiver, that he played that position in high school. So, like, I'm here, I feel like the price might rise higher than I'm willing to chase it. But I am chasing right now.
- [19:38]
A
Absolutely. And I think, you know, let's try to put an actionable one here. Like, where's your cutoff point for you? Like, if he gets into the back of round two, is that too expensive? Middle of round two, do you have to, like, will you chase him all the way into round one? Where do you think is that point that you're willing to say? Like, you know what, it's just a little bit too rich for me.
- [19:55]
C
I'm out at that cost in early drafts. Until I get more news, it's probably going to be that second round range. There's still some backs I like a lot better or I feel a lot more comfortable. If you went in the third round of the most recent draft that I'm in, I think that was like the. I think that pick came like at the start of free agency. So maybe they, maybe that this may have been a move that came right as free agent, right as he got signed, trying to look at the time stamp on this pick. So, yeah, so he jumped right up into the middle of the third round, he may have gone higher. He may go higher in the next rounds. Round two, I'm looking at the players going ahead of him. Robinson, Gibbs, McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, H.N. jenty, Jeremiah Love. People are going to be chasing him up. I would probably take Kenneth Walker over Jeremiah Love at this point. James Cook, Amari and Hampton got some help in free agency. I think I like him an awful lot. Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Derek Henry. And now we're starting to get into Kenneth Walker territory for me.
- [20:46]
A
And I think I would prefer Kenneth Walker ahead of quite a few names that you mentioned there. And of course we could be looking at a slow start to the season like this.
- [20:53]
C
Sure.
- [20:53]
A
Chiefs offense hasn't been great for the last couple of years and now you remove Patrick Mahomes at the early part of the season, it could be even worse. But I think the hope here is that Kenneth Walker is just a workhorse late in the year, gets the Chiefs back on track and you're looking at RP1 production down the stretch. All right, next guy we want to talk about here, Travis Etienne stays in or I'm sorry, stays in the Southeast, but in a different conference. Here goes to the New Orleans Saints. Gotta be honest, not crazy about this one. And I think that talking about Travis Etienne, we can't even really have the discussion without knowing what's happening with Alvin Kamara. Because if Alvin Camara is still a New Orleans Saint next year, that doesn't make me feel great about Travis Etien. Of course if he retires, gets traded, released, something like that, then I could talk myself into ETN as an RB2. But with him being on a multi year deal, I don't know if they have plans to just give him the reins and give him that same very volume heavy workload that he got in Jacksonville.
- [21:47]
C
Like I think, I think he will get a good volume. Like I, I question like one of the issues last year for Alvin Kamara I thought was the lack of targets early in the season in games where he like right. His targets ramped up, he'd be pretty productive. I feel like Alvin Camara feels like Alvin Camara's had enough. I'll check in with him in Cancun in the next few days and try and figure out what's. No, I don't, I don't, I don't. I think they're planning for a post Camara future right now. And, and you're right, I'm not as enthusiastic about this. But I'll say this, he has more of a proven track record than Kenneth Walker at the high end of the running back class. So they were the top two available. His track record is better. He has a couple of top 10 seasons. Kenneth Walker does not have that. He's carried the load ETN has in his time in Jacksonville. Kenneth Walker has yet to do that. So there's things I like, but I don't, I don't love the landing spot.
- [22:37]
A
Yeah, it's not a great landing spot. But of course the Saints did look good towards the end of the year. I just worry a little bit. Kendra Miller coming back from the injury. Devin Neal showed some flashes last year and then like we said, Alan Camara, of course if he is still there, he's going to command touches. So long term, I think there's reason for excitement here. You know, he got a massive contract. Saints clearly value him. But 2026 could be a little bit shaky. We'll get more news as well.
- [22:59]
C
I did draft him at the last pick of the third round. That was he went after Walker in the most recent draft, so. And after Trayvon Henderson. So I may have caught him right on signing there.
- [23:09]
A
Yeah. And if Alvin Camara does move on, I think that that end of the third round is a very good value there. Next guy we're going to talk about, Javante Williams returns to Dallas. And I love this man. It just like makes my heart happy to see Javante Williams valued by a team. You know, he looked good last year, averaged 19 opportunities per game, double digit touches in every single game. We did see the efficiency trail off a little bit at the end of the season, but either way I'm not exceptionally worried about this. Good offense, good workload and his efficiency. Not quite back to what it was pre injury, but much better than it was the last couple of years. So Javante WILLIAMS still just 25 years old. Like we feel like this guy has been in the league for a decade now. Still very much so. On the right side of the age curve. Tied with Dallas for the next two years. Hard not to be excited about this.
- [23:56]
C
This is great. You know the cliche, sometimes the best move is no move. This is a prime example why that's a cliche. And look at the way this offense has been set up. You know, I mean, I think there was a lot of people who expected it to be, you know, them not to run the ball a lot. Right. I think they want to be very balanced and we saw it last year and, and having this Clayton Adams coming over from Arizona, the offensive line coach to Serve as offensive coordinator may have should have been our signal that, hey, this is going to, you know what, the job he did in Arizona with the rush attack there was phenomenal. What he's done in Dallas is also phenomenal. They got strong offensive linemen. The passing game makes it hard for opposing defenses to load up the box. So just so much going on there that works in Javonte Williams favor and not the least of which is Javante Williams. He's, he's just playing good and he
- [24:42]
A
also gets the high value touches, he gets targets, he gets goal line work. Part of a good offense. Like I said, this is a very good landing spot. And I think there's still kind of this mindset that Javante Williams hasn't returned from the injury, the tail off in production at the end of the year. He didn't necessarily help people win leagues. So I think that because of that there's going to be a value for Javante Williams in drafts this year. Next one, we want to talk about Rashad White going to the commanders, linking up with his college quarterback. Jaden Daniels and Rashad White were together combined for over 2,000 rushing yards in two years together at Arizona State. I love this fit for Rashad White. It makes a ton of sense to get him in there. Of course, the big question, what's going to happen in a month and a half at the NFL draft? Because I think if Washington's sitting there at 7 and Jeremiah love still on the board, then all of the excitement for Rashad White just comes crashing down. But if he can make it through the draft unscathed, is it crazy to think that we're looking at, you know, just a plug and play fantasy RB2 here?
- [25:40]
C
Yeah, I think with running back one upside, we saw it like two years ago, two years ago, three years ago, tons of, tons of targets. Right? I mean like that's the, the pathway to success for pretty much every high end running back is if you get a bunch of targets. We saw Breeze hall turn a bunch of targets into a similar outing that, that same year. I believe so. So, yeah. So playing time, opportunities. One of the things I like about Javonte Williams is I understand what the role is going to be. It feels like it's locked in. I feel less like that with White, but I feel like he's worth some shots at this point. Until I get that certainty, I'll probably be drafting with abandoned, probably too high because I think it's a great landing spot for him and we'll see. I don't Know what David Blau's offense is gonna look like. But, but the, the talk is, you know, the, the commanders are pretty excited about it. Having Jaden Daniels, a healthy Jaden Daniels, you know, is another thing that's going to keep opposing defenses on us. So I like the landing spot today.
- [26:34]
A
Right. And I think the, the, the potential downside here is that Rashad White, he's going to get a lot more checkdowns from Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield than he from Jaden Daniels. Jaden Daniels is going to use his legs a little bit more, but one of the biggest problems that we saw, Jakory, Crosby, Merritt, there were a lot of flashes, but Jakori, Crosky, Merritt did take a lot of losses. He wasn't a effective as a pass blocker or a receiver. So I think that we could look at Rashad White getting a lot of the early down work just because he does have that veteran ness to him where he knows how to get downhill quickly. He keeps coaches happy. Might not have the big play upside that we want to see, but just a sound veteran who can handle a big workload, as we saw just a few years ago.
- [27:11]
C
I think the perception of him as being just a receiving back, because that's what he's been the last few years, is probably going to throw some people off and they should probably, probably remember he's capable of handling a featured role if given it.
- [27:21]
A
Absolutely. Now you talk about it, you know, the, sometimes the, the best move is no move J.K. dobbins back to the Broncos. This is the best move, right?
- [27:29]
C
My favorite. Yeah. Like, you know, we have some clarity and understanding of what the roles were with both him and RJ Harvey in the mix. I think RJ Harvey was probably better being that secondary piece than he was being the primary piece. But, but I think, you know, J.K. dobbins is an overlooked player. He's. And, and I know why. It's because not everyone is injury agnostic like me. I don't care how many, many times you've been hurt. Like, I'm not into chronic, chronic injuries, but chronically injured. It's a collision sport and he's in a collision position. I mean, it's going to happen. As long as he's in the locked and upright position, he can be super productive. And we saw that last year. I expect us to see more of it again this year. And I expect him to be a great value in draft because of the injury history and, you know, and the memories of last year. And people will be quick to forget when last year the numbers last year average. His career average is 5.2 yards per carry last year, 772 yards, 905 yards the year before. Those were the most in back to back seasons career 13 combined rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. He's an impact player when he's on
- [28:28]
A
the field and you know his rookie season feels like it was so long ago at this point, but he was looking like potentially the best running back in that rookie class. That rookie class with Jonathan Taylor and DeAndre Swift, like J.K. dobbins was the one that was separating himself from the bunch late in that season. Of course the injuries have piled up, but this was like Javante Williams, a guy that came into the league so young. So you know us in fantasy. We look at J.K. dobbins as this dusty old veteran and then R.J. harvey is this new youngblood year two guy. There's only two years separating these guys. J.K. dobbins is 27, R.J. harvey is 25. So J.K. dobbins still, very much so, has a future ahead of him. They gave him a two year deal and Sean Payton has just been singing this crazy since before he even showed up there. There's the whole story about him like whining and dining him before they signed him. And we saw that he was the preferred back when both were healthy running
- [29:16]
C
back, running back 18 when he went down when his season ended. And by the way, Harvey was running back 24 over that same span. So there's room for both of them
- [29:25]
A
to produce, which we have seen historically in a lot of Sean Payton offenses where there are two running backs that can get there. So we'll be drafting J.K. dobbins a lot this year. Let's talk groceries, specifically your groceries with Instacart. You want your groceries just the way you like them, right? Well, the Instacart app lets you do just that. They have a new preference picker that lets you pick how ripe or unripe you want your bananas. Shoppers can see your preferences upfront, helping guide their choices. Instacart get groceries just how you like Tyler Algeria to Arizona. Not crazy about this one, Bob. When I'm looking at this, Trey Benson's still there. They brought James Connor back. They re signed Bam Knight. Now we got Tyler Algeria in the mix. This to me just I I'm okay just saying like I might not draft any Cardinals running backs this year and I'll let everyone else deal with that headache.
- [30:15]
C
I probably let someone else be the hero as well. Unless the price. Look, I think, I think Algier is there to be the lead back. I think Connor to me though is capable of still being that when we last saw him play. I don't know what Trey Benson's capable of. I know we've talked about a little bit. But you know, you go back to last year, the meniscus was torn, the out of the repair came back to practice. I can remember the day, it was late November. There was a specific, specific practice. Theo Mackey from the Arizona Republic reported on it, where he reached down and grabbed the knee. We haven't heard a word about that knee since. Not a word. Like, I went out and looked again just to double check. I'm writing about it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Check that out at the site on Sunday, people. And, and to me, this is a sign that they don't think they're going to get anything from trade bets. And so we'll see how it plays out. I'm with you. I mean, I think, you know, it's a little bit too, too diluted a pool for me to dip into right now. But if the price is right, if people feel the same, you know, Tyler Altier has been super effective in a, in a limited role. He's really good at the outside, outside zone scheme. We'll see if they run a little bit of that under Mal Floor, so. Or Mike LaFleur got my LA Flores mixed up. So. So like I have hope for him. Like if there was one I was going to take a chance on, it's him. It just has to be at the right price.
- [31:30]
A
I heard a good mnemonic device once. It was actually a YouTube commenter because I said Michael Floor once talking about the Green Bay coach, and he said, no Matt tt Title Town. That's how you remember it. It's just stuck in my head ever since. It's a. I love a good mnemonic device.
- [31:43]
C
It is helpful. I will say this. You know, Arizona, I don't know that they're going to be better this year and if they're not better, I think we're going to see a lot of Jacoby Brissette as things stand today. I know everyone doesn't want him to be the starter because he went, what, 1 and 11 is starting. But the numbers were so glorious that I'm still rooting for that. So this is a little wish casting. But I didn't. I don't see them making moves that are going to make the defense materially better. And so that's going to mean the offense is going to be playing from behind a lot. And that doesn't bug well for the running backs.
- [32:11]
A
Here's what I will say about like fantasy football adp. I don't know how it's going to shake out, but we ran a poll from the company account saying who do you think scores the most points? Points? Tyler Algier was the overwhelming favorite in that poll, which tells me that he is going to be getting drafted way higher than James Connor and Trey Benson. I don't know what the upside case is for Tyler Algier. Never been much of a pass catcher. We don't expect this to be a great offense. So I think like rather than paying up for Tyler Algier, who I think probably settles into that dead zone running back area, if James Connor and Trey Benson are falling to like the very end of your draft, I think that there's at least upside there worth taking a shot on. They could be nothing, but they're also probably going to be close to free in draft. So I think that's where I'll be placing my chips. Just based on the value. David Montgomery to the Texans. Love, love, love this move for the Texans, man. They have, they have shown us their cards. We know what they want to do here. They want to bring in these veterans with a lot of miles on their legs. Yeah, I mean we saw with Nick Chubb, we saw with Joe Mixon. Now we're seeing it with David Montgomery. Hopefully his future can fare a little bit better than those other guys.
- [33:14]
C
Well, I, you know, I thought like Joe Mixon for a year was phenomenal. Right? The, the usage, the red zone usage, all the things you want to see. I think David Montgomery is ideally suited for this. I have concerns about the offensive line this year and I'd like to see C.J. stroud rebound. But having a good running game, which they, they pretty much lacked last year, can be a difference maker. So I think they're going to lean heavily into Montgomery. There's no need to preserve him for anything. It's going to be, it's going to be all, all systems go for him. And, and I like this. I mean the, you know, without mixing, the Texans didn't have the kind of, the kind of guy that they had the, for Stroud's greatest success. So I think this makes a big difference. Woody Marks isn't that guy and I think David Montgomery has a better chance of emerging as that.
- [33:58]
A
Yeah, we saw Joe mixing just like 100 yards at a touchdown every single week. It felt like before he ended up.
- [34:03]
C
It's a volume based production.
- [34:05]
A
Yeah. And I think that you know, David Montgomery, Joe Mixon, pretty similar play styles. Like they can do a lot of the same things. It wouldn't surprise me if we get similar production from David Montgomery going into his age 29 season. Next one we're going to talk about Bob and we didn't even talk about this guy last week. But Chris Rodriguez signing with the Jaguars. This is one that I think is flying under the radar for a lot of people, but I wrote about it last night. I am very intrigued. I don't know, excited might not be the right word, but intrigued. You look at the connection here. Liam Cohen kind of started his ascension as a coach at Kentucky, right where he leaned on Chris Rodriguez as the very much so the workhorse in that offense. When he came back to Kentucky two years later, he was quoted saying like, you know, it is going to be really tough without Chris Rodriguez, a guy that we can give the ball to and know we're getting four yards whether it's blocked for him or not. We've also got James Gladstone, Gladstone raving about Chris Rodriguez, saying that he plays like a superhero. And then you look at the effect efficiency metrics from last year. Every efficiency metric I care about, yards after contact, bird 10, broken tackle rate, success rate. He is top five across the board. So had a sneakily efficient season last year. Gets reunited with a coach who has really liked to lean on him and then you look at the difference. You know, Bashal Tutin is that big game Hunter that's going to bounce around in the backfield, try to make something happen. Chris Rodriguez is that hammer that's going to pick up four yards and really earn the trust of coaches. So I. Intrigued I think is the best word, but interested to see where ADP shakes out for this backfield.
- [35:34]
C
Sadly disappointed with me as someone, as a Basil Tootin and Dynasty investor. Like I would like to see him have a clearer path to workload. I don't know that he's not still going to be the guy I think probably he will be. I mean this is the regime that invested in him in the draft and he does. We did see signs of last year, but. But you're right, I mean like Rodriguez was no accident. This is, they didn't, they didn't just stumble across him in the alley. They clearly had a plan and he was part of it. So it's interesting for, you know, those with a quit. Alan shares. You wonder if that buries him a little bit or where he's at. Maybe he's just a career special teamer. You know, we know his receiving equity in class blocking or gay great. But maybe he's just never going to be a thing for us. So that, you know, I think more than being excited about Rodriguez, I'm a little intrigued and disappointed about what it means for me. The other pieces there.
- [36:25]
A
Absolutely. I think that's the biggest takeaway here. But again, waiting to see where ADP kind of shakes out. I don't think there's going to be a lot of buzz for Chris Rodriguez. My guess is that's probably going four to six rounds ahead of him in drafts once the dust settles here. And this is one where I will be more than happy to just take the cheaper of the backs, assuming that there's a big chasm between their costs. Next guy we want to talk about Rico Dowdle to the Steelers. I mean this very much so feels like the Steelers backfield from two years ago. Naji Harris Warren. Now we've got Rico Dowdle and Jalen Warren feels pretty similar to me.
- [36:57]
C
Almost an even split. Not what Rico Dowdle wanted. He thinks he should have a featured role. He made a pretty good argument for that last year. When given a featured role he was pretty dominant. I don't know if he would have held up under that workload all along. And there were games where he was not as effective obviously as the two game stretch against Miami and. And Dallas where the huge totals came but. But there were games where he was still effective. So. And there may be games in Pittsburgh where he's effective. I think Mike McCarthy, you look at the overall numbers for his career, it's going to be a pass happy offense. Maybe that works more in Jalen Warren's favor. But right now this is going to be about. I think it's about what you said and I think in those days Najee Harris was slightly ahead of Jalen Warren and they moved on from Najee for a reason. I thought they wanted more out of Warren. Last year we saw they didn't get it. So you know there's an opportunity here. But don't overpay.
- [37:44]
A
And I think another takeaway here, Caleb Johnson, that's probably not happening. Yeah, I don't think we can get excited maybe, maybe in some other world future, future seasons. The one last thing I want to say about this backfield though, we saw last year the Steelers really prioritized pass blocking and I think that's why we saw Kenneth Gainwell getting so involved. Jalen Warren is a fantastic pass blocker as well. That is something that Rico Dowdle isn't great at. So when you've got a 40 something year old immobile quarterback back there, you want a running back who's going to help keep that quarterback upright. And I worry a little bit that if Dowdle struggles there, we could see the workload shift to Warren. So of these two backs, I think I'm going to prefer prefer Warren two Dowdle. But again, all just kind of comes down to cost and seeing how ADP shakes out here. Next guy we want to talk about no longer Kenneth. He's. He's going Kenny Kenny Gainwell with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Again, I don't think we need to spend a whole ton of time here because I think this is just like a one to one replacement for Rashad White.
- [38:36]
C
Yep. Same complimentary piece passing asset we saw gain well serve really well on that and more like I would have loved to see him get a more robust opportunity. I don't think he's going to get that in Tampa Bay.
- [38:48]
A
And next guy we can talk about again, one that we don't have to spend a lot of time on, Aaron Jones returning to the Vikings. Happy for him. If he's healthy, he's probably an RB one, but if he's healthy is a very, very, very big qualifier there.
- [39:03]
C
Well worth the what, six to eighth round pick you'll have to pay for him and, and knowing he has a role but also knowing the risks involved in being able to mitigate those, those risks by having other pieces in your roster.
- [39:14]
A
Yeah, I mean just two years ago we saw him fourth in the league in weighted opportunities. He gave us an RB one season he stayed healthy and then he got hurt last year and I feel like that's just been the story of Aaron Jones's career. Like when he's healthy, this guy's awesome, but he just has these nagging injuries that have piled up going into his age 32 season. I'm sure a lot of the risk will be baked into his cost, but there's absolutely still upside here, especially with Kyler Murray. Hopefully just getting the offense a little bit better than what we saw from J.J. mcCarthy last year. Isaiah Pacheco to the Detroit Lions. Great news for Jameer Gibbs. Right? That's the, the major takeaway here, Bob.
- [39:48]
C
That's the only takeaway here. You've got to have a backup. Right. And now they have one in Isaiah Pacheco who has not been very effective in all the things that they asked David Montgomery to do short yardage, goal line, all those things. Just Isaiah Pacheco, bless him, he runs hard. If his opponent was the ground, he would be a winner every single play. But, but that's not how it goes. It's just been a struggle. We haven't seen the same guy we saw as a rookie and even then, you know, like he was running back 36, you know, as a seventh round pick. That's that, that's what made him stand out, right, was the fact that he was an outlier who came in and did something he has not done much since. Injuries have been a problem. So great news, Jameer Gibbs.
- [40:26]
A
The other thing I'll say too is I think that there's this idea that Detroit is going to split their backfield and that Jameer Gibbs is just coming off the field as soon as they get inside the red zone. Because we did see that during the Ben Johnson era. With Ben Johnson out of the picture last year, Jameer Gibbs saw a huge increase in red zone and goal line work. So I think there's this idea that Isaiah Pacheco is now in the Jamal Williams role or the David Montgomery role and he's going to get double digit touchdowns. When I think the reality is that maybe Ben Johnson likes that sort of split as we saw last year with Kyle Manungai, but I don't think Dan Campbell does. I think Dan Campbell just says, hey, Jameer Gibbs is our best running back. He's effective near the goal line as well and we are just going to keep him on the much as we possibly can. I don't think that there's any path for fantasy relevance for Isaiah Pacheco that doesn't involve something catastrophic happening to Jamir Gates.
- [41:13]
C
Stop.
- [41:15]
A
Next guy. We'll talk about Keith Mitchell going with the Chargers. You know, Bob, every year I do this like very deep article where I just do write ups on every single player from a dynasty perspective. And three off seasons ago, or was it two off seasons ago, whatever it was, after Keith Mitchell's rookie season I labeled him arbitrage Devon HN and now he lands with Mike McDaniel. I mean, is that what we're looking at here? Just usage?
- [41:40]
C
I don't think that's an accident. No, we're not looking at that because I'm already in Hampton's there. We're looking but, but it's a change of pace. Like I could see him getting something done. Like I've been long a bandstander of, of Keith Mitchell because why he's fast. Matt Waldman is somewhere just not knows exactly why because I'm addicted to speed and that speed on the field is something that Keith Mitchell brings in that playmaking ability. And we've seen him be a super effective change of pace in Baltimore when you know, when he's healthy and when they have another back leading the way. So that's my expectation for him, you know like as a running back four on your roster or someone who can probably depth on bye weeks or something. Assuming he earns that kind of change of pace role. Maybe someone worth happy to help you avoid a zero with some upside. Maybe take some of the distance.
- [42:27]
A
And it's the off season. So we feel good about the Chargers, right? For sure about the Chargers. Joe all coming back. Rashawn Slater coming back. Like
- [42:37]
C
you add another blocking tight end, Kolar. So yeah, they've done a lot of things, done a lot of favors to the guys we like there. And the guys we like of course are Justin Herbert and you know, Morgan Hampton.
- [42:48]
A
And you talked about Omari Hampton at the top of the show. I mean one of my favorite running backs. Like I'd have no problem paying like a mid to late first round pick. You don't have to. He's fallen into the second round barely
- [42:58]
C
in the second round. I've seen him go. I've seen him go from I was in a draft where he went fourth overall. I mean there are people who are super high on him. That was Howard Bender from Fans.
- [43:07]
A
Yeah, I've got him sixth in my rankings. I mean I think that teaming him up behind that offensive line with the threat of a pass game. Mike McDaniels There plenty of reason to be excited. Now let's talk about the receivers. We've got a lot of receivers to discuss here. First and foremost, DJ Moore. Bob, I don't know if you read it or not. Matt Harmon wrote a fantastic article about this because he had kind of read these tea leaves for the last year or so. And when he talked to Josh Allen, when he talked to DJ Moore, he kind of connected the dots here that I think this just makes so much sense. And I talked about this a lot last offseason and during the year, DJ Moore just isn't a fit for the Ben Johnson offense. You know, that is predicated on timing and being on your spot. And DJ Moore is just kind of a freelance wide receiver. He's going to get open and that's what works perfectly with Josh Allen. So this good for Josh Allen, good for DJ Moore, good for Caleb Williams and Colson Loveland, Luther Burden and Roma dudes, they like everybody wins from this trade.
- [44:00]
C
I agree with that. And you know, let's remember if he wasn't a great fit in the, in the Ben Johnson offense, he was in Joe Brady's offense. Last time we saw them working together in Carolina, it was a career year or thereabouts for, for more. So playing with a lesser quarterback I'll suggest than Josh Allen. So, so yeah, I have high hopes for this one. I think the thing we got to remember in Buffalo, and maybe they're not done, but the Brady's been preaching one thing to Josh Allen. Throw to the open man. There is not a designated like, hey, we're throwing to this guy. Don't target. It's throw to the open man. Don't focus on a single receiver. DJ Moore will probably get open a fair amount in this offense, but that's, that's always something to keep in mind with this receiving core.
- [44:42]
A
And you talk about it, we saw him really succeed in the Joe Brady offense. You know where else we saw succeed? And a Justin Fields offense where Justin Fields regularly playing out of the structure of the offense, running around with his hair on fire and then just ripping a ball to DJ Moore off script. I think we're gonna see a lot of that in Buffalo as well. So excitement all around for everybody touched by this trade. Alec Pierce back to the Colts, very good player. Got a massive contract. I don't know, I don't know. I don't, I don't want to be the wet blanket on Alec Pierce here, but I think this is one of those guys that like, could he back end his way into a wide receiver one season because he catches double digit touchdowns. Absolutely. But I don't know if I'm expecting a huge role change here. I think his role as that downfield receiver opens up the underneath stuff for Tyler Warren and Josh Downs and the run game. And I think that he is an integral part of this Colts offense. But I do worry that this contract and Mike Pittman being gone is going to really steam him up. Drafts to a point that I'm not comfortable drafting him. I don't know your take here, Bob.
- [45:41]
C
Probably. So I just. After this move, I think I drafted him in round four, I want to say, which felt like a little rich. A little rich. But I wanted, you know, I wanted to make the move right. And, and so like, I guess. What was it? Round four? No, it was actually the start of round. It was. Oh, I have this wrong. It's just start around 6. Maybe people just miss out. I feel really good about that.
- [46:02]
A
That's very justifiable.
- [46:03]
C
Yes, but, but I, but I do think like with more volume, we might see a completely different player. Right? Like, I mean, we're looking at a guy who, who put up great numbers without the volume. Only two, three receivers, A.J. brown in 2019, Mike Williams in 2019 have done a thousand yards on 90 or fewer targets. And that's what Pierce did last year. Matt Waldman will argue that he is a much more well rounded receiver than we, than we think. In fact, Walman, I talked to him about this. He said he felt Pierce could develop into a player closer in style of Justin Jefferson because both players are skilled vertical weapons with hand speed, timing, toughness at the catch point, but they can also deliver on timing routes. So I think this is once again I'm looking at what the Colts, who invested in him, Colts, the people who were with him every single day and see everything about him, how he works on and off the field, all those things. So I'm pretty optimistic. I, I would be worried if the price rose up precipitously. I probably wouldn't chase it up, but as long as he's a reasonable price, I'll probably be interested.
- [47:02]
A
And I think this is also great news for Tyler Warren and Josh Downs because I think we just had too many guys doing the same things like, you know, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, they all want to operate middle of the field in those intermediate areas, in the short areas of the field. So I think now just removing one of those, it's kind of an addition by subtraction thing. I think this is great news for Tyler Warren, great news for Josh Allens, and also great news for Michael Pittman. I think who lands with the Steelers just feels like, I don't know, can't really quantify it, but like, feels like an Aaron Rodgers receiver. Also feels like a Pittsburgh Steeler. Like this to me just makes a lot of sense. He's that big bodied, physical guy, not afraid to ball guys in the run game. We'll catch those balls across the middle of the field. Creates a big easy target for Aaron Rodgers to hit. I love this landing spot. I do worry that it kind of, I don't want to say, makes DK Metcalf was already on the fringe.
- [47:50]
C
I think he's driving though. DK Metcalf, right? Like all the things like, so is Pittman, you know, marginally better than DK Metcalf or are they just gonna, you know, cut into each other's workloads. Like, I think the reasons for optimism here is the Mike McCarthy offense. Again, we're gonna see a more passing volume. I do think, you know, those are the kind of guys that, you know, Aaron Rodgers likes to throw to, guys that'll go up and win 50, 50 balls, things like that. So I like, I'm optimistic. I think it's a better spot for him. I'm not going to be chasing him in drafts.
- [48:20]
A
Yeah. And I think that DK Metcalf, you know, obviously has athleticism that Pittman doesn't, but I think Pittman has better ball skills. So I think there are some, you know, differences here. They're both big bodied, physical receivers, but I think this works well for what they're trying to build in Pittsburgh. Wanda Robinson reunited with Brian Dable, goes to the Tennessee Titans, gets himself a big fat contract. And the question we had last week, Bob, was what Wandell Robinson are we going to see with a new team? Is he going to be that guy that just plays near the line of scrimmage as an extension of the run game or is he going to play downfield like we saw him doing with Russell Wilson last year? I think reuniting with Brian Dable probably tells us that we're looking at a bit more of the former. Perhaps.
- [48:57]
C
Well, probably that's my lean right now, but maybe we'll see what happens in the draft or if they add another piece. I think he's the best receiver or, well, clearly the most proven just because he's been on the field more but, but also the production. I mean, he's been very good over the course of his time. He's the only Giants 1000 yard receiver not name league neighbors with a thousand yards the last couple years. Average over 90 catches the last two years. He's a high volume target who can work all parts of the field. I think we've seen it. He comes in, helps, you know, his younger teammates get up to speed in the Brian Dable offense. So I like this moving off a lot. I'm not going to get overly enthusiastic from a fantasy perspective, but man, he was very good last year when given that lead role. I wouldn't totally underestimate him. If he slips down in drafts, don't overlook him.
- [49:42]
A
And right now Calvin Ridley is still on the team. I think we all still on the release, so we don't know if maybe he is, maybe he's going to stick around. But when I look at the other receivers here, whether it's Calvin Ridley, Elik, I am an OR Jamir dk, they all like to operate a little bit deeper downfield. So I think that them being those kind of downfield guys that are going to be running their routes 15, 20 yards downfield, it does open the underneath stuff for Wandell Robinson. So we could easily see another season where he's getting 140, 150 plus targets in this offense. And also I think what gets lost in discussion here, Cam Ward pretty darn good at the end of the season, you know, struggle.
- [50:15]
C
Two touchdowns a game the last four games, the interceptions went by the wayside. That's I'm with you on this one. I think Cam Moore might be in a better spot than people realize and
- [50:23]
A
I wouldn't blame anybody who wasn't watching late season Titans games. But Bob and I were and Cam Ward looked good. So if, if you didn't see it for yourself, just trust our opinions on it. Had a strong finish to the season. George Pickens returned to the Dallas Cowboys and this is, you know, older news we got this, it's a, it's a franchise tag. Quickly followed up by George Pickens saying that he wants a long term contract. So I have a feeling this is going to be quite the saga, Bob. Probably not the last time we'll be talking about George Pickens and whether or not he will be playing this season.
- [50:53]
C
Yeah, I, I think this, you know, they have until July 15th to work out a long term deal. I think until they have that worked out or until that deadline hits, we're going to have a lot of that angsty uncertainty of people not showing up for workouts like maybe, maybe Pickens proves us all wrong. It shows up. I think, you know, last year might have been a little bit of an anomaly in terms of CD Lamb's injury situation stuff, but the Cowboys are going to throw the ball a fair amount. There is room for both those guys. I still think CD Lamb's a better player and more consistent producer over time. I would probably prefer prefer to have him. I'd be willing to pay more for him. And I think the Pickens price though is it's not prohibitive. And look we plenty of times see wide receiver ones from the same team in fantasy. So don't let that scare you off. I'm more scared about the probably the off field concerns and issues and maturity level stuff than probably other people would be or maybe not. But that's probably the biggest concern for him. And last year it was no concern at all.
- [51:49]
A
Yeah, and this to me, everything we've talked about for years with the Cincinnati Bengals offense, right? Everyone's like, how can you possibly take Jamar Chase in the first round and T. Higgins in the second round? Almost no difference here. A hyper consolidated offense to two very talented players with a lot of pass volume. So George Pickens I think probably settles into the second round pick if, or like as a second round pick if we get certainty that he'll be playing. And I think that's a totally justifiable cost for him. Romeo Dubs going to the New England Patriots. This very much so feels like a lateral move, right? Like we were hoping because Green Bay has these very specialized roles, specialized roles for the receivers. And we said, just imagine if Romeo Dobbs can like play X receivers somewhere, get hyper targeted. But no, he goes to the Patriots where they also kind of have hyper specialized roles. And Romeo Doves kind of feels like that guy who's going to be the chain mover, the red zone target, the same kind of player he was in Green Bay.
- [52:39]
C
Yeah, Younger Stefan digs. They're not done. They're not done in, in New England. I think, you know, they're still, you know, the A.J. brown talk will persist until it doesn't. There's talk that he won't move until June because of the cap implications. So we'll see how this one plays out. I would not chase Romeo Doves like he's going to be the true wide receiver one there. I think all those guys are going to be value plays at the wide receiver position if nobody else shows up. And it'll be similar to Green Bay, where one week it'll be one, next week it'll be another. It'll be kind of a whack, a mole.
- [53:09]
A
I still like Keisha Booty, who's probably one of the cheaper of the Patriots wide receivers. Probably be falling late in drafts, but when healthy, he has looked very good in his young NFL career, so we'll see. I think Dubs probably does get steamed up a little bit higher than I'm comfortable with. A couple more guys to talk about here. Mike Evans with the 49ers. I know, Bob, you, you are a big Mike Evans guy and you don't really get scared off by age. My goodness, when I see Mike Evans getting up there in age, going to San Francisco team that really feels like they're on their last leg as before this window slammed shut on him. I'm not very excited about this.
- [53:45]
C
I'm. I'm with Mike Evans, the 49ers are one piece away from a Super bowl and he's the piece. All right. No, like look, I'm not going to get carried away because this is going to be all about the price for me. If I get the lead receiver in this 49ers offense at a reasonable price, I'm going to be happy to have that. I think Brock Purdy will carry the day. Evans still produced at a high level 2.3 yards per route. Ranked 14th among all whiteouts over the past two seasons. But he's got to be on the field and apparently working next to that the power plant in San Francisco. I've got concerned enough. No, it's like there's gonna be big changes here. You would have no Juwan Jennings almost certainly. Kendrick Bourne's gone. Sky Moore is already gone. Who are we left? Ricky Pierce all into Marcus Robinson. I think. I think there's room and George Kittle obviously starting the season. You know, we'll see where he gets. I've seen talk of him being ready week five maybe at that's an optimistic outlook or not. That gives plenty of time for Mike Evans to make some hay. So I'm going to be looking to grab Mike Evans at the right price and I'll probably get the right price because Dave, you highlighted it. He's old and people get scared away from that.
- [54:48]
A
You know, we all have blind spots in our analysis and mine is definitely keeping the light on for the young guy who has dealt with injuries that I liked as a college prospect. So I'm still gonna be throwing darts at Ricky Pierce all until I have reason not to. Injuries have barred the first couple years of his career. I think Mike Evans such a cliche but I think he'll be one of those better in best ball guys like it's still Mike Evans. He can go for 150 yards and two touchdowns on any given week. I do worry a little bit about the consistency just with how many weapons are here in San Francisco. But I think all that's going to be baked into his cost and I think that he could make for a
- [55:18]
C
good value wide receiver 3 costs right now projected for that on football guys. Wide receiver 36. He's probably a guy that could put up better than closer to wide receiver two numbers and wide receiver three numbers.
- [55:27]
A
Next up we'll go through this one quickly. Rashid Chihi did the Seahawks. We know he is. He's a field stretcher. He runs 50 yards downfield running wind sprints so JSN and AJ Barner can eat across the middle of the field. Any major takeaways here? I think the idea of Rashid Shahid in fantasy is much cooler than the actual production we've gotten from Rashid Chihen Fantasy.
- [55:46]
C
Our intrigue has all been based on a stretch in New Orleans where he's super effective with their car. I'm not going to three games. Right, right, right. It was a narrow band, but it was super exciting. We have not seen that level of production in Seattle. I don't know if Seattle level get the production they they're paying for out of them.
- [56:01]
A
And you know, good special teamer, his like Alec Pierce, you know, that role is very important to the offense. Alec Pierce obviously more valuable in fantasy. I just don't think Rashid Chiheed is a guy that you're ever going to be relying on on a weekly basis. Calvin Austin with the Giants. They got rid of Wandell Robinson just to bring in kind of another version of Wanda Robinson.
- [56:20]
C
Calvin Austin's an exciting player, great speed, all those things. Has not been a consistent producer. We'll need to see something before I invest in him.
- [56:26]
A
Jalen Naylor with the Raiders to wrap up wide receivers. And then we got a few touchdown or tight ends to talk about. Bob, I might be galaxy braiding this one. I think they signed Jalen Naylor because they said, hey, we got that, that 14th overall pick from the Ravens and we can go out and we can get ourselves a nice first round wide receiver. And then the Max Crosby trade flip flops and now they're like, oh my God. Jalen Naylor is our wide receiver one. What did we do?
- [56:47]
C
We may be feeling the ripple effects of that for a while. Look, Jalen Naylor has been surprisingly good the last couple years and I thought like, you know, the Vikings realized this, they probably drafted Ty Felton knowing they were going to lose Jalen Naylor because he has been impressive. So look on. In a. You don't have to be the tallest skyscraper in town. In, in the. In the. In a city without many skyscrapers. So Brock Bowers is going to be the wide receiver one there. And after that it's going to be catches, catch, can. And Naylor can earn a roller.
- [57:14]
A
Yep. Jeff Bell and I talked about Brock Bowers just on the episode that released yesterday. And I said 180 targets. Very much so in his range of outcomes. I mean, Trey Tucker, Jalen Naylor, Jack Bash, all funds, you know, wide receiver twos, wide receiver threes. But this is going to be the Brock Bowers show in Las Vegas. Let's talk about some Tight ends here. Kyle Pitts returning to the Falcons. Still some old news, but kind of housekeeping at this point. We've seen effective seasons, we've seen ineffective seasons. We've seen some seasons where he's been both effective and ineffective in the same season. Kyle Pitts really kind of teased Falcons at the end of the season with that stretch in the final month and now he's going into what, year six with the Falcons and I feel like they still don't know what they have in him.
- [57:57]
C
I think I'd love to see him find out. Maybe this Kevin Stefanski offense lead heavily in tight ends in Cleveland, will do the same or do some of that. Drake of London is always going to be a limiting factor for him, but we don't have the same, you know, quarterback dynamic. If it's Michael Panickers, I'm a little concerned about, you know, Kyle Fitz because of his panics, his tendency to throw or focus on Drake London. If it's tua, maybe a little less of that. But, but either way, I think, you know, drafting him as a tight end one and hoping he gets somewhere up to closer to a ceiling, which we finally got last year. But a lot of that came like in one game or so, just a few games.
- [58:32]
A
Three times London was injured while Drake
- [58:34]
C
London was injured and Kirk Cousins was starters. So yeah, there's. Don't, don't get, don't get tricked into drafting him where he finished last year.
- [58:42]
A
Yeah, they got the, the, the four years on his rookie window. They took the fifth year option. Now they've got the franchise tag. It feels like they're still trying to like, see, like what is this guy? What do we have in this, this Kyle Pitts fellow that we drafted over half a decade ago. Next up, Chicaconkwo to the Washington Commanders. I don't know your take on this one, Bob, and I know you're writing an article about it right now, so I don't want to spoil your thunder, but I see so many people look at what Zach Ertz did in Washington. Now that's Chicaconquo's role. That is apples to oranges. Zach Ertz is a master at finding soft spots in zones, creating big targets for the quarterback. Chicka Conquo is basically a slot receiver who's really fast. If you can get him the ball while he is running a route, he can take off and nobody's going to catch him. But he is not Zach Ertz. We can't make that comparison whatsoever.
- [59:27]
C
Right. Ranked ninth in the league and yards after catch one tight ends last year 342. But here's the, here's the 87 of
- [59:34]
A
which came on one play by the way.
- [59:35]
C
Right. Here's the, here's the happy part. Here's the happy part. The Earth had 91 targets running 256 routes out of the slot. So if that's a conqueror's wheelhouse, then hello wheelhouse.
- [59:46]
A
Yeah. And, and that, you know there's an upside case here. Of course it's all gonna come out of cost. If he's falling into that tight end 20 range, I will be throwing darts.
- [59:53]
C
He feels like the Devo Samuel replacement, right? Yeah. Like you just kind of got right. So. So like there's something to be said there. Keeping opponents so, you know, a little honest when it comes to Terry McLaurin. They need more pieces to do that still. So. So I like I, I don't mind the move but I'm not going to get over enthusiastic about it.
- [60:11]
A
I'm stealing that from you Bob. When I'm talking about this on future shows, I think you're bang on. He's not the Zachary's replacement. He is the Debo Samuel replacement. That makes so much sense. Last guy we're going to talk about here, Isaiah likely a guy who we've been excited about for years but the production just hasn't been there. Aside from a Thursday night football game in week one two years ago, just kind of consistently giving us tight end two production every single year has averaged between 20 and 30 receiving yards per game. What I get excited about here Bob, not even going to talk about Pat or Isaiah likely but John Harbaugh brought in Isaiah likely brought in Pat Ricard. To me I'm seeing the foundation being built for the same exact offense that we saw in Baltimore. Just multiple tight ends on the field, a full back on the field, heavy sets, lots of RPOs, lots of option based concepts and allowing Jackson Dart to run. Jackson Dart was second in rushing yards per game among all quarterbacks last year behind only Justin fields. Averaged over 40 rushing yards per start. I'm seeing a potential ascension into that elite QB1 tier from Jackson Darth this year.
- [61:11]
C
Well we saw him there last year when he was healthy and locked in. I mean so it's not even ascension. It's just following up on what he did last year. Maybe with a better supporting cast and likely a better overall coaching staff out.
- [61:24]
A
Well that'll do it. We, we hit them all. They were a lot. I, we went just over an hour but we were darn close to getting there. I want to thank everybody so much for taking the time to tune in. Bob is going to be a frequent here on the Football Guys fantasy show, so hit that subscribe button if you haven't already. I'll be back Monday with Joey Wright, Wednesday with Jeff Bell, and then we've got another show planned for next Friday as well. So stay tuned here, whether it's on audio, YouTube, Twitter, wherever you consume the show. Thank you for taking the time to hang and I will see you on Monday.
- [61:54]
C
Sa.