Podcast Summary:

Footballguys Fantasy Football Show — The Pretend GM Podcast, Aug 4, 2025
Episode: How Pat Fitzmaurice Makes the Best Trades in Fantasy Football
Guests: Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros), Host: Alfredo Brown

Overview

In this evergreen episode, host Alfredo Brown sits down with revered fantasy football analyst Pat Fitzmaurice to dig into Pat’s methods for building winning rosters, making successful trades, and developing analytical approaches to rankings. Eschewing short-lived hot takes, the conversation aims to provide timeless, actionable advice for both new and experienced fantasy managers, with stories, laughs, and memorable insights from Pat’s decades in the industry. The episode also includes a lightning-round mailbag and explores Pat’s philosophy on humility, analytics, and the constant evolution of the fantasy football landscape.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

[05:43] How Pat Fitzmaurice Got Started in Fantasy Football

• Origin & Journalism Roots
  • Pat began as an editor at Pro Football Weekly in the late 90s, when fantasy football was only a minor part of the coverage:
    • “We barely devoted more space to fantasy than we did the Canadian Football League.”
  • Took up freelance fantasy writing as a “side hustle” before transitioning to a full-time analyst role at FantasyPros much later.
• Imposter Syndrome & Audience Perspective
  • Even top analysts wrestle with thoughts of legitimacy and self-belief.
    • “I don’t really know if I’m good enough to do that...” [07:46]

[08:54] The Early Influence of Games & Analytics

• Pat’s childhood love of analytical thinking was shaped by growing up an only child, playing strategy sports board games like Strat-O-Matic and organizing leagues with friends — early echoes of modern fantasy football.
  • “I was a kid before the sports video games started to get really good. For me it was cards and dice.” [11:56]

[12:57] The Legendary 16-Team, No-Waivers League — & Trade Philosophy

• Unique League Structure:
  • Runs a 16-team league since the 1990s: 24 rounds, no in-season waivers, all moves via trading.
  • Deep draft means trading is not only common—it's necessary to survive injuries and fill roster holes.
    • “Trading in this league...almost makes itself.” [14:05]
• How to Master Trading:
  • Always propose trades that genuinely help both teams.
    • “I like to craft haggle-free proposals and try to put myself in the other person’s shoes...I typically don’t send out an offer until the answer to that question is yes.” ([14:50], notable quote below)
  • Avoid lowballs and haggling—set a tone of trust and fairness for long-term trade partnerships.
  • Reputation matters: “If you screw over one person or make it difficult to trade, you’ve now removed them from the equation to trade with in the future.” [16:41]

[19:03] Pat's "Golden Rule" of Fantasy Football

• “Do your best and let the chips fall where they may. Just don’t let yourself be consumed by the failures.” ([19:03], notable quote below)
  • Accept that fantasy football is a game with randomness and heartbreak; even perfect decisions sometimes result in losses.

[21:09] Balancing Audience Demands and Good Analysis

• Many listeners want simple answers (“Who do I start?”), but meaningful help requires explaining the reasoning behind a decision.
  • “I always explain my reasoning...walking them through my decision-making process.” [22:01]

[23:28] The Most Misunderstood League Setting

• Wide Receiver Requirements Shape Strategy:
  • “The most important league setting is the number of wide receivers you’re required to start.” [23:28]
  • Two-WR leagues provide RB flexibility; three-WR formats radically increase WR value, dictating early-round priorities.
    • “You better believe I'm going to hit the wide receiver position hard.” [25:40] (notable quote below)

[26:14] Favorite Positions & Biases

• Pat admits his consistent bias:
  • Overweighting WRs over RBs in 3-WR start leagues.
  • Prefers big WRs (“sizeist”) and young RBs (“ageist”), e.g., often favoring rookies/second-year backs.
    • “I just don’t really see the appeal of the Josh Downs types...” [27:03]
    • “I tend to fall hard for the rookie RBs and second year guys.” [27:42]

[28:25] Being Willing to Defy Consensus

• Pat is unafraid to be higher or lower than industry consensus, often driven by his film evaluation (e.g., Brock Bowers, 2024).
  • “I don’t have any trouble going against consensus...I am willing to go out on a limb if I believe in a player.” [28:25]
• Sometimes it pays off big (Brock Bowers), sometimes not (Rondale Moore).

[31:02] Film vs. Analytics – Striking a Balance

• Tries to combine analytics and “the eye test” in his process.
  • “Sometimes when I watch guys, I’m like, OK, I don’t care if the analytics don’t really love this guy. I think this cat’s fantastic.” [31:02]
• Example: This year’s Matthew Golden debate — film experts vs. statistical models. [33:39]

[36:22] Embracing Ambiguous Situations

• Especially at RB (and sometimes WR), Pat likes to target backfields with uncertain depth charts
  • “If you get it right, you stand to make a big profit on a middle-round pick. If you get it wrong, it’s not that hard to move off a middle-round pick.” ([36:22], notable quote below)
• Cites players like Bucky Irving and Kyren Williams: overlooked profiles can be league winners.

[38:21] Learning from Losses & Missed Calls

• Reflects on misses and adapts with humility—calls out the common cycle in the community of searching for “the next [breakout profile]”, and how reactionary thinking can become:
  • “We turn it into gospel and try to follow that over and over.” [39:23]

[40:35] AI in Fantasy Football – Strengths & Warnings

• Pat is cautiously open:
  • “I don’t use AI all that much...I want to find ways to harness it for research.”
  • Warns AI cannot replicate nuance, humor, or context:
    • “AI hallucinations...if you blindly follow it, you could be getting yourself in trouble.” [40:35]
  • Good for research, not for wholesale content or decision-making.

[44:47] How Has Pat's Perspective Changed Over Time?

• Early years: believed fantasy football was simply “get the RB right and you win.”
• Now: Game (and NFL) has evolved; must constantly adapt to new edges and league trends, e.g., more passing, value of running QBs, and sharper drafting by the public.

[50:25] Tracking & Responding to ADP Movements

• Pat uses early- and mid-summer rankings as a personal “time capsule” to evaluate why values change.
• Warns against over-valuing “situation” over talent:
  • “If a player is good, I don’t want to knock him too much for the situation...I have faith in the ability of good players to overcome.” [50:58]

[53:04] Changes He Wants in the Fantasy Community

• Advocates more humility—less “if you’re not doing X, you’re doing it wrong” attitude:
  • “I never want to come off as lecturing to people...a lot of the people I’m talking to are smarter than I am, probably most of them.” [54:00]

[58:00] The “Expert” Moniker and Analyst Humility

• Pat prefers “analyst” over “expert,” quotes Rich Hribar: “We’re fantasy weathermen.”
  • “There are going to be times where we tell you to take an umbrella and it’s a bright sunny day...” [58:00]

[61:31] Lightning Round Mailbag

• Top 5 Wisconsin Badgers Pros: Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon, Lee Evans, Chris Chambers, Russell Wilson.
• Favorite Replacements Show?: Saw them twice in wildly different circumstances—“If you can sacrifice your wife’s hearing to see your favorite band rip it up well past their prime, gotta do it.” [64:55]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Trades

“I like to craft haggle-free proposals and I really do try to put myself in the other person’s shoes...I typically don’t send out an offer until the answer to that question is yes.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [14:50]

On Fantasy Heartbreak

“Do your best and let the chips fall where they may...Just don’t let yourself be consumed by the failures.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [19:03]

On Wide Receiver Importance

“You better believe I’m going to hit the wide receiver position hard. I’ll cut corners at running back. Almost never draft more than one running back in the first four rounds if I have to start three receivers every week.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [25:40]

On Ambiguous Depth Charts

“If you get [ambiguous situations] right, you stand to make a big profit on a middle-round pick. If you get it wrong, it’s not that hard to move off a middle-round guy and just hit waivers.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice [36:22]

On Analyst Humility

“I never want to come off as lecturing to people...because a lot of the people I’m talking to are smarter than I am, probably most of them.” — Pat Fitzmaurice [54:00]

On “Expert” Status

“We’re fantasy weathermen. We are trying to figure out what is going to happen, but there are going to be times where we tell you to take an umbrella and it’s a bright sunny day.”
— Pat Fitzmaurice (crediting Rich Hribar) [58:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [05:43] Pat’s history, imposter syndrome, and transitioning to full-time fantasy
• [12:57] The origin and lessons of his storied 16-team, no-waiver trade league
• [14:50] What makes a good/bad trade, establishing trust in leagues
• [19:03] Pat’s “Golden Rule” of fantasy football
• [23:28/25:40] The critical importance of WR requirements and adjusting strategy
• [26:14] Pat’s positional biases and drafting tendencies
• [28:25] Going against consensus, case study: Brock Bowers
• [36:22] Why to target ambiguous RB/WR situations for upside
• [40:35] Thoughts and warnings about the role of AI in fantasy football
• [44:47] How Pat’s approach has changed with the game’s evolution
• [53:04] What he wishes for the fantasy community—more humility
• [58:00] The “expert” vs “analyst” debate and embracing humility
• [61:31] Lightning round mailbag: Badger pros, rock shows, and more

Final Thoughts

This insightful episode offers both strategic frameworks and philosophical approaches for sustainable, enjoyable fantasy football play. Pat’s core message — always think empathetically, adapt to trends, learn from your misses, and value humility — resonates with both industry veterans and new managers alike.

Find Pat at:

• FantasyPros.com (Draft Kit/live)
• @Fitz_FF on Twitter
• Podcasts: FantasyPros Football Podcast, Dynasty Podcast

Host: Alfredo Brown — Footballguys Fantasy Football Show

If you’re looking to make better trades, sharpen your process, or just get re-centered before draft season, the wisdom and stories from this episode are must-know listening (or reading).