Footballguys Fantasy Football Show

Episode: How Tera Roberts Uses Data to Take Smart Risks in Fantasy Football

The Pretend GM Podcast

Date: October 28, 2025
Host: Alfredo Brown
Guest: Tera Roberts

Episode Overview

This episode of the Pretend GM Podcast features fantasy football analyst Tera Roberts discussing her journey, strategies, and unique philosophy around using data to make smart risks in fantasy football. The conversation covers how her perspective evolved from a fan-based approach to a data-driven, audience-focused content creator. Tera shares insights on drafting, managing bias, assessing injury risk, navigating trades and waivers, the role of AI in fantasy football, and her golden rules for success.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. From Fan to Analyst: Evolving Perspective (02:58)

• Early Days: Tera recounts her beginnings as a fantasy football player dominated by Packers fandom, overdrafting players like Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy purely out of bias and excitement.
  • Quote:
    “I would overdraft Aaron Rodgers and I would pair him with Eddie Lacy...just pure, stupid, reckless, abandoned. No logical sense whatsoever.” – Tera Roberts (03:00)
• Lesson Learned: Enjoying the game as a fan is fun, but success comes with a logical approach and not letting bias override strategy.

2. Core Fantasy Strategies: Hero RB & PPR Bias (04:59)

• Tera prefers a "hero RB" strategy: locking in a clear RB1 rather than going full "zero RB".
• Strong preference for pass-catching (PPR) running backs.
  • Quote:
    “I love a nice, clean, clear RB one to headline my team...I want the pass-catching running backs, just running amok and getting eight receptions. It brings me joy.” – Tera Roberts (05:05)

3. Audience Impact Over Hot Takes (06:51)

• Rather than mimicking other industry leaders, Tera’s approach is most influenced by direct audience feedback—prioritizing clear, actionable information over attention-grabbing hot takes.
• She emphasizes delivering “simple, accurate information...that is very consumable to help people win.”
  • Quote:
    “One of the things that has influenced me the most is my audience...I want to deliver very straightforward information and avoid the hot takes that are going to generate clicks.” – Tera Roberts (08:03)
• Prefers short-form, interactive content and live Q&A to maximize usefulness.

4. Common Player Mistakes: Take Lock & Rookie Bias (10:48)

• Take Lock: Holding on to previous opinions about players despite new evidence or changes in situation is a recurring pitfall.
  • Example: Overrating rookies post-draft regardless of draft capital or landing spot.
  • Quote:
    “Take lock is one that I think happens a lot...players and situations change, you don't have to be locked in.” – Tera Roberts (10:49)

5. Navigating Injury History & Risk (13:53)

• Advocates optimism and calculated risk: When there’s proper draft-day discount, she’s willing to take chances on players with injury histories.
  • Distinguishes between “perceived” injury prone (e.g., Keenan Allen) and genuine patterns (e.g., J.K. Dobbins).
  • Quote:
    “As long as there's an appropriate discount on a player, I'm okay with taking the risk...I think you also have to assess what is actually an injury prone player versus somebody who we might have overreacted.” – Tera Roberts (14:10)

6. Upside vs Consistency: It Depends on the League (18:19)

• Divides consistency into “year-over-year” and “in-season” (e.g., steady WR2 vs. volatile weekly scores).
• Typically leans towards high-upside players but adapts based on league type (home league, best ball, tournaments) and settings.
  • Quote:
    “I always lean towards upside...But I definitely lean more towards upside in that I try to avoid players that tend to be inconsistent in-season. Unless we’re talking best ball.” – Tera Roberts (20:26)

7. Waiver Wire Discipline: Knowing Why You Drop or Add (22:17)

• Emphasizes risk/reward and the need for clarity if a waiver pickup is for short-term or long-term upside.
• Shares a personal anecdote about dropping Amon-Ra St. Brown and regretting it when he erupted after being picked up by her brother.
  • Quote:
    “When you're making these ads and drops, you have to be aware if you're dropping a player, know why you were holding on to him in the first place.” – Tera Roberts (26:42)

8. Trading Mindset: Need-Based, Not Player-Chasing (28:08)

• Warns about “chasing” specific players leading to overpaying.
• Instead, assesses her team’s needs and seeks mutually beneficial trades, avoiding competition for a specific name.
  • Quote:
    “If I go chasing a specific player, I will overpay...I need to try not to chase players. So I tend to look for what needs am I looking for, rather than a specific player.” – Tera Roberts (28:08)
• Strives for trades that work for both managers, promoting league trust.
  • Quote:
    “I want to have a situation where the trade benefits both of us.” – Tera Roberts (29:10)

9. Start Your Studs Philosophy (31:48)

• Defaults to starting “studs” except in the most extreme unfavorable matchups.
  • Quote:
    “I’m very much a start your studs kind of person. It’s gotta be a Patrick Surtain-level matchup for me to contemplate sitting a stud player.” – Tera Roberts (31:48)

10. Learning from Misses: Process Over Results (33:06)

• Misses rarely come from hot takes: “9 times out of 10 the process was right, the outcome just didn't align with it.”
• Post-season, she reviews stats and context, especially for significant misses.

11. Favorite Analytical Tool: Alignment & Usage Stats (34:11)

• When analyzing players (especially receivers), she scrutinizes field alignment and usage trends to spot anomalies.
  • Quote:
    “Overall, with players I like to look at where...especially receivers, I like to look at alignments. That's something that I lean towards first and try and find anomalies.” – Tera Roberts (34:11)

12. Tera’s Golden Rule: Embrace Change (36:10)

• There’s no shame in shifting your opinion with new data.
  • Quote:
    “Just be open to changing your perspective...don’t get take lock. It’s a real thing.” – Tera Roberts (36:11)

13. The Role of AI in Fantasy Analysis (37:41)

• Tera uses AI extensively but cautions against using it for real-time NFL statistical data due to lag and context issues.
  • Quote:
    “If you're using it as a consumer, AI does not do a good job with football statistics...AI most accurately pulls historical information.” – Tera Roberts (37:55)
• Suggests AI is best for logic, broad trends, or time-saving tasks—not for live fantasy lineups or projections.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On starting as a fan:
  “Just pure, stupid, reckless, abandoned. No logical sense whatsoever.” – Tera Roberts, on her early Packers-heavy drafts (03:00)

• On audience impact:
  “I want to deliver very straightforward information and avoid the hot takes that are going to generate clicks.” (08:03)

• On take lock:
  “Players and situations change, you don’t have to be locked in.” (10:49)

• On risk and injury:
  “As long as there’s an appropriate discount…I’m okay with taking the risk.” (14:10)

• On AI in fantasy:
  “AI does not do a good job with football statistics...The stats are hard...use it for logic things.” (37:55)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Intro to Tera’s perspective – 02:58
• Hero RB & PPR strategy – 04:59
• Shaped by audience, anti-hot take stance – 06:51
• Biggest player mistakes: take lock & rookie bias – 10:48
• Handling injury-prone labels/risk – 13:53
• Upside vs. consistency philosophy – 18:19
• Waiver wire logic & personal anecdote – 22:17 & 26:42
• Trade approach and philosophy – 28:08
• Start your studs approach – 31:48
• Dealing with mistakes/process – 33:06
• Favorite stat: alignment/usage – 34:11
• Golden rule: be open to change – 36:10
• Thoughts on AI in fantasy analysis – 37:41

Conclusion & Where to Find Tera

Tera’s overarching advice is to stay flexible, trust the process, and remain driven by actionable data and audience needs over chasing hype or holding onto old beliefs. Her expertise is available on social media at @ItsTeraTime across platforms, where she’s increasing her focus on varied content including DFS and betting for the upcoming season.

Final golden rule:
“Just be open to changing your perspective...Don't get take lock.”

This summary captures the heart and practical wisdom from Tera Roberts’ appearance on the Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, with actionable takeaways for fantasy football managers of all levels.