← Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
Footballguys Fantasy Football Show
How to Trade for Late-Season Fantasy Breakouts with Faraz Siddiqi
00:53:27
Loading summary
Transcript95 lines
- [00:00]
A
And now a next level moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [00:30]
B
On today's episode of the Pretend GM, I got to speak with Paras Siddiqui of Upper Hand Fantasy. This is a guy who started his own brand, has worked with a bunch of different companies throughout the industry, and it has taught him so much about fantasy football. He and I sat down and we talked about how he uses different data sets, different ways he goes through trades, the way he looks at things towards the end of the season so that he can stash players for a fantasy championship run, just like you and me. Faras Taniki is a pretend gm. Dude, like, you have been one of the people that I have been so enamored by in this industry, and I mean that in the absolute best way possible because I've seen how hard it is for people to go out and do things on their own and just like, not. Not just to be able to do the analysis and stuff, but make a name for yourself, put out good quality content and then, like, on top of it, like, not be like some weird attention seeker and you do such.
- [01:24]
C
You laugh.
- [01:24]
B
But like, we. We know, we know the type. Like, dude, you. You do such a good job of it, man. I'm not trying to, you know, blow smoke.
- [01:31]
C
No, that means a lot, dude. That. That means a lot, man. It means a lot. And you know, you know, when you say things like that, and coming from you, it means a lot, too, because I know that you're very thoughtful in how you approach life and all that kind of stuff. So when it comes from you, sometimes it. It means a little bit more. So I, I do, I do appreciate that a ton, man.
- [01:50]
B
Yeah, dude. Yeah, man. Well, I'm glad you're here. The whole goal of this show is to not only teach fantasy managers a little bit more about fantasy football, like Redraft Dynasty, Best Ball, whatever, and honestly, just teach football fans more about football and, like, everything that goes into this whole thing that we're doing. What I'd love to do is start this off, let's start this off with the sort of opening, big important question. If you had to sum up your fantasy football philosophy in one sentence, what would it be?
- [02:25]
C
Upside wins championships.
- [02:28]
B
There we go. There we go. That has been a common theme throughout this. What, so what, how do you even approach that? Right, like you obviously, like that is your, your mantra that you go for. But like, how does that affect the way you look at things week to week? This is coming out in the middle of the season, right? So like we can't talk about draft stuff, but like week to week, middle of the year, maybe fantasy playoffs, how does that affect the way you look at the game?
- [02:50]
C
Now? I, you know, on waivers, for example, right? We're early in the week when we're recording this one, for example, like I'm looking at waivers and I'm like, okay, well which one of these guys is going to be somebody who could potentially have some long term impact on my team maybe in the future, opposed to somebody who might be, might be a weekly fill in, but that weekly fill in, like, is probably not even a lock, not even a guarantee to even get it done for one week. Like we say, you assume and we love the matchups and blah, blah, blah. But it's like in reality, like I'm just picking up this dude who's been a journeyman and might get some extra opportunity this week week, and I'm just like, you know what? Like I, I don't know if that is worth dropping somebody who has more upside on my roster, who commit, who might pop off in a week or two, might have to wait a little bit longer, right? Like a, like a Travis Hunter, for example, or like some handcuff running back, handcuff content with contingent upside who's on my bench, like, do I really want to drop them, you know, to the wolves, you know, outside, you know, in, in my league, you know, and, and have them, you know, with that potential upside moving forward. So yeah, I mean, I, I, I, I, I try not to make too many short term moves. Now obviously, you know, with five weeks and all these kind of things, like you got to do what you got to do to get those wins. But I also try to figure out like, all right, well, the move that I'm making here, is it just better that I just start one of the guys that I already have on my bench opposed to like, you know, picking up some random dude off the wave wire and starting him? Because most likely it was probably the wrong move anyway.
- [04:17]
B
Yeah, I mean that's just like, that's the nature of fantasy football. It's like, whatever, Whatever thing can go wrong tends to just go wrong. And like, I always look at it very similarly, right? Like, going for upside, I often ask myself, like, what is the thing that I can live with afterwards, right? Like, if I had this guy that I've been stashing all year, I've been sitting on Trevon Henderson all year, and then I drop him to go pick up Bam Knight or something like that, and all of a sudden, next week, Trevin Henderson pops off, and that's the league winner. I can't live with that, man. I, like, I can't hold on to that and carry that with me. You, you did this really cool thing where you started your own brand, your own company, your own whatever we want to call it, but it's its own entity, right? You started Upper Hand Fantasy almost eight years ago. You cover everything from Redraft, Dynasty, Best ball, all of it. How does that even start for you? Are you just sitting around one day and you're like, hey, I'm kind of good at this. Like, I should just start talking into a camera, give people advice. And then you built a business out of it too. You're not just like some dude on Tick Tock that's just like, I got three sleepers for you, you know, like, you, you built something that's real, man, that people like and, and take your advice very seriously.
- [05:27]
C
You know, that is what I sound like sometimes. I'm not gonna lie. But I will say, yeah, no. So, yeah, eight years ago, I, you really did your research here. But because most people think it was like, started like last year or like two years ago, but it's been, it's been a minute now, I, I always had some itch towards entrepreneurship and like, making money on the side. Like, I, I did retail sales in high school, in college, and I had a little bit of a knack for being a salesperson because of the people that I was kind of working with and my manager at the time, like, really push that kind of stuff, right? So, you know, I, I learned quickly how to become a decent enough salesperson in the retail world. You know, very small retail stuff, right? We're talking like Radio Shack. We're talking like, you know, commission sales, right? We're talking like, you know, cell phones and things like that. But, like, you have to learn a little bit, you know, a little, you know, how to sell, right? And then I, I, but I didn't know how to apply, I didn't know how to create A business. I didn't know how to apply that want into a real thing and how to actually apply it until I started seeing Gary Vee's content online a long time ago. And he had a book called Crush it that came out, and I read that book, and basically the premise was, hey, you can kind of. You can create content online about anything, and eventually you could potentially monetize it as long as you lead with value, right? And you don't ask your audience for anything for a long time. And that is pretty much what I lived by. And that was like, kind of like the golden words that I lived by for a long time, for several years without selling anything. So I, you know, I think the audience, relatively, our community was built up in a little bit of a loyal way where, you know, I was kind of giving for years without asking for anything. Now eventually I did, and I continued to do so. But that premise still lives with me because I know regardless of whether I'm selling stuff or not, I have to lead with value every single time. And that's a. That's a. That's something that we make sure that we abide by, you know, to this day.
- [07:38]
B
I mean, that's just a good principle for everything, right? Like, even in relationships is like, what. What value am I putting out to this person for them to even want to be a friend with me? So, like, and that's really what. What even business with sales would. Even. All of this is like being a content creator, right? As you're making relationships with the people that are on the other side of this phone or camera or computer or what. So I know there's so much that goes into it. You're not just sitting in front of a camera or, you know, writing out scripts or anything like this. You're doing a lot of analysis, you're doing a lot of research. So what is the typical week like for you or day? Like, whatever's easiest to describe. What is that work schedule? Like, you just. You just wake up and start grinding tape and going through data, and then you're like, all right, after five hours, I'm ready to film something. Like, how does this go?
- [08:25]
C
Yeah. So I. On Sundays, while I'm watching the games, I create my schedule and I time block everything for the week, for the upcoming week. That. That's, That's. I have to do it that way. Otherwise we have so much going on that I. I lose things as the week goes. I lose a lot of time. And, you know, I have a family. You know, I have two Kids, you know, they have soccer practice, they have gymnastics. They have all of this stuff that we have to do after school. And I, you know, I like to go to the gym. I want to make sure I'm healthy. I like to eat healthy. You know, there's a lot of things that I like to do that if I just work, work, work, work, and I don't. I'm not thoughtful about those things. At the beginning of the week, they're just gonna slip by and I'm gonna drop the ball on stuff that I don't want to drop the ball. And I've done it plenty of times, which is why I know exactly how it feels, and I just, I want to avoid it as much as possible. I make my mistakes every single week. You know what I mean? Like, my wife tells me, hey, you forgot that thing. I'm like, oh, man, I thought I was on top of that, but I'm guess I guess I wasn't. But I, I. That's what I do during the games. I'm watching the games. I'm at my office, I'm watching the games. And why, as I'm watching it, I'm creating what I have to do for the week. That night, you know, like last night, you know, we are recording on a Monday, you know, last night I was here until 1am the games were over. I do record a few videos at night after the games are done, after I kind of go through as much as I can from all the games and, you know, so that it's ready overnight. Because we have some video editors that edit stuff overnight. It's ready for the morning. And those videos can go out, you know, early a.m. right? And that's kind of what we do throughout. So, you know, throughout the week, you know, long to keep it, you know, the whole week kind of condensed. How it works is that, you know, in the morning, we know we do prepare for, you know, waivers and, you know, we have a few guys on our team that helps me out, helps me. Helps get stuff in front of me so that I can kind of get it started and get it going and kind of create that first 10% of the content. They help me a lot with the 75, 80%. And then I maybe come in for the last 10, 10 or 20%, get that ready to go, and then we're ready to shoot.
- [10:32]
B
Okay. So, I mean, it's funny, I know, like, people sort of, like, laugh when we say, like, oh, yeah, we had to stay up late for those games. Like, you seen the meme where like, they're, they're, they're like carrying Toby Maguire, Spider Man. It's like, careful, careful. He stayed up late watching football instead of like, he's a hero. Right, right. Like, yeah, I know, I know that sounds crazy to people, but it is so true because you have to stay up late for every game. You got to be up early for every game that's in London or international or whatever. And it's so funny because, like, that's a thing too. As you talk about the balance of family and football and all that. It's just like this past Sunday, wake up, start watching the London game at 9:30, going all the way till the end of the late game, and it's like clockwork. My wife forgets every Sunday that there's football. And then she's like, all right, what do you want to do today? And I'm like, what do I got to do today?
- [11:19]
C
Right, right. And by the way, I also have a day job too, you know, I.
- [11:24]
B
I, I, oh, sneaky, sneaky. Okay.
- [11:27]
C
Yeah. That's also a part of this whole thing too, where, you know, luckily though, like, it's a job that I, I, it's a very like, low input, high output job. So I don't necessarily have to put in too many hours into it. I shouldn't be like, publicly like, revealing this, like online, on the Internet. But it is what it is. Right. And it's just the reality of the situation. Right. I don't want to, you know, you know, give any sort of false narrative here, but that's, that, that is the case. But at the end of the day, like, I do have to wake up like, really early every day as well. Like today, like on, like, if I'm going to bed super late, like, I'll try to get my sleep, but I do try to wake up, you know, 5am and get as much stuff as I can so that when I'm all the content that I can create between the hours of like 5 and 7:30 before I have to go get my kids ready for school at 9am Stuff is ready for our graphic designers, for our video editors and all that kind of stuff. Right. So, you know, it's, it's, but anytime. I guess my point is though, that anytime that you really try to create a lot of output during the week, there has to be a lot of time involved and a lot of planning involved.
- [12:31]
B
Yeah. I mean, that's why I asked the question, right? Not to like, say, hey, for us, go ahead and brag about what you Do. It's more of just understanding what goes into the work and the analysis and the understanding of it all. Right. It's not just people that sit in front of. Because there's so many people that say I could do that. Like, you know, fantasy analysts are right 50 of the time anyways. I can get up in front of a camera and do that. But there's like, there's so much more that goes into it. What I always love to ask everybody is before doing this, right, like you had a certain skill set, you had different experiences. What outside of maybe football or fantasy football? Like content has shaped the way that you approach analyzing this. Is it like data, film usage trends, things like that? Everyone's got sort of that secret skill.
- [13:13]
C
Yeah. So I, I am a software engineer by, by trade. So that, that was my day job. Now I manage a team of engineers. But yeah, no, that's, I'm an engineer like kind of at heart. Right. And that's, that's kind of like where I'm at. So yeah, I think a lot of the, the data driven mindset, you know, can come from that. But, but you know, honestly man, like I, I guess that be, you know, when I, when I saw other analysts like, you know, there's, there's, there's so, there's so many great analysts who like now I can consider like peers I guess. Which is like insane to me because like before I started creating any sort of fantasy football content, you know, these are guys that I really, really admired. So like the data driven analysis, when I saw that, I'm like, well this is really hard to argue against, right? And then when I, I saw that how, how they were really good at creating that logic around the data and being able to present that data in a way that was super consumable. I thought that was really awesome. And then I guess the engineer in me took to that and that's probably like where I got that from, you know, if that makes sense. So that, that's because it's so tangible, right?
- [14:24]
B
Like you look at it and you can, you can specifically point to this piece of evidence as opposed to like, ah, just feel it in my gut, you know, this is going to be a breakout guy.
- [14:33]
C
Yeah, exactly, exactly. Right. So you know, like, you know, if I'm looking at guys like Scott Barrett for example, right, like somebody, you know from Fantasy Points who's been putting out stuff forever and he's like, for me he's like the OG like data guy who's like who, who. And he's you know, he's, you know, doing fantasy points and they have a great data suite and all that kind of stuff. But like, you know, he was one of those guys early on where I'm like, wow, this makes a lot of sense. That really took to me and like, guys like him, you know, really paved the way for me and you know, from, for how I at least approach the game with data.
- [15:04]
B
You're not, you're not beating the data nerd allegations right now, like at all. Just leaning heavier into it.
- [15:13]
C
I, I hate spreadsheets and you know, okay, okay, I, I, I just, I can't do that stuff. Like, I have people, I, we have, we have our team and you know, we have, I have somebody on my team who handles all that kind of stuff. I just, I, like, I can look at it, but I don't know how to manipulate it. I don't have, I don't know any of that stuff. Like, I'm just not, it just doesn't speak to me. Even though, like I'm engineer and I like math and stuff like that. But I just, the spreadsheet stuff, like, I just, I can't do it.
- [15:39]
B
No. I have like one friend that loves it and I'll send him everything. And I'm like, hey man, send this back when you're done.
- [15:45]
C
Some people love doing it and like, keep those people nearby.
- [15:49]
B
Yeah, exactly. Keep your friends close and your spreadsheet friends closer. So, I mean, throughout this journey of building upper hand fantasy and the way you, your analysis has sort of changed throughout the years. What's maybe a mistake that you felt like you made early on? Because I think a lot of people do that. They start analyzing this game and they'll make a mistake and they go, okay, good, I learned from that. Let's not do that again. What, what was one of those things that happened to you early on that a fantasy manager now could learn from?
- [16:17]
C
Hold on, let, let me grab one of the things from the big hat of mistakes that I've made here. I, I, one really stands out to me, which is hilarious. Like, it was like a few years ago. Oh, remember CD Lamb's like ridiculous year? Like, it was just a few, few seasons ago, right? And he started the year slow, right? And me, you know, thinking of this big brain analyst guy, I'm like, guys, his target share so low. His target share is so low and this is not sustainable. And oh my God, like, he's got to, you got to sell him. So I was like looking, I was banging a drum to sell CD lamp early on that year. And, like, and, and he started just to pop off, right. I think, I think, like, after his buy, I think he had an early buy week. I would think it was like week five or week six. And then after the buy, just started just destroying everybody, and I got destroyed as a result. Right. My, everybody in my community was just like, I cannot believe you said that. I cannot, you know what I mean? And I, I, and I had to, like, address it several times and take the L, like, oh, you know, several, several times. Like, a lot of times. And it humbled me. You know what I mean?
- [17:29]
A
Yeah.
- [17:29]
C
And it's like, you know, it's like sometimes you can take the data too far, and sometimes you, you, you take the small set of data and you, like, you, you think that that is like, the end all be all right. So that was, that was, that was, that was a big mistake. So, like now when I, I, I, I definitely would look back at like, okay, maybe that guy's a stud. Maybe I should just, like, take it down a notch and just, like, be a little patient and things. Will, Things usually work out over a large sample. That's kind of where I'm at now.
- [17:59]
B
That's, that's, that's, that's kind of where my brain has gone to, where it's like, okay, yeah, we're gonna regress to the mean one way or another. But everything, whether it's a highlight reel, a data set, like, it all needs context. And I feel like that's the thing. We stop so many times because, oh, good, I got the answer. I wanted to. That's it. We're good. Like, we're done. We don't need further context. And that's, I mean, that's what people need. Like, that's what fantasy managers want. That's what we truly want, is more and more context clues. And it's a good example of, like, trying to, I remember my, my. One of my early mistakes was hopping into Dynasty and like, just absolutely skyrocketing players up rookie rankings because of where they landed in the draft, like, opportunities or early draft capital. I was like, oh, this changes everything for them. I didn't like him as a prospect, but this is me being humble, telling you they're going to be good, and then they would just be terrible. Like, they'd be total cheeks in, in, in, in the league. And it's like, oh, I knew this. Why did I, I change what I'm doing?
- [18:59]
C
The Clyde Edwards Hilaire vs. Jonathan Taylor is like the ultimate Example, Right. Like, that was my first year.
- [19:05]
B
That was my first year doing content, man.
- [19:07]
C
Right. Brutal. Because it's like, oh, the Chiefs. That's juicy. That is juicy. But, yeah, great lesson to learn, 100%.
- [19:17]
B
Yeah, it was, it was. The streets were not kind, so. Okay, so, like, we know a little bit about you, how you've come up and what you've built. But what I always like to do is, what can you teach fantasy managers? And one of the things I always like to ask is either typically, like, what's the biggest mistake you see fantasy managers making? But in this, I'd rather ask, like, what separates a good, consistent, winning fantasy manager from those who find themselves losing year after year? I feel like every league has one of those guys. I have one of my friends who, like, he is the guy we pick on every year because every year he loses, but he does not change his strategy. So what is it for you that separates the good fantasy managers from the bad fantasy managers?
- [20:00]
C
You know, honestly, I, I think it's, it's, it's straight up preparation. Like, straight up. Like, it's effort. Prepare, Prepare properly. And, and I think properly is, is the move, right? Like, I think you could get caught up with headlines and things like that. Like if you just follow ROTOR World and look at like the, you know, all the BL are coming out and all these players, like, it's really tough to sometimes get caught, like, not get caught up. Like, even I, you know, I, I, I get caught up too with certain guys, like, who I might not have been high on in the draft process, for example, but then they end up like, you know, they're popping off and then you're like, oh, like, is Jaden Blue actually a good player? Like, I don't know, you know, so, like, or whoever it is. Right, sorry, sorry, Jade, I didn't mean to throw a stray there, but I'm just saying, like, you know, got certain guys, you know, you're looking at it and you're like, all right, well, this is a player who has shown time after time after time where he's got an opportunity and he hasn't really come through. And now all of a sudden, you know, he's been the Lee five years and now he's really going to come through. So it's, it's things like that. And I think another thing too, it's like, I think people don't give enough credit to good players, you know, in good situations, opposed to somebody who is just going to get opportunity. Right? And, you know, identifying who the good players actually are, can be a huge unlock. And that's why I, I, I rely on guys like Matt Harmon, you know, for example, because he tells me which wide receivers are actually good at football. You know? Yeah, I can't watch every snap. I can't watch every route. But he does. And he, or at least most of them. And he tells me, he's like, hey, that player's good. I'm like, okay, cool. Thanks, Matt. You know, so now that I know and now when that matches the data, and it's like, oh, this player must be really good. That really helps me out a ton. Right? And you know, those types of things. So if you kind of can match, you look at the data, you see who's good, you see who might be undervalued in drafts and things like that. And, you know, you kind of, you can kind of make a distinction on, like, okay, let's at least build a strong foundation for my upcoming season, you know, with your draft, Obviously, everyone says, and I don't know if they're right or wrong, but like, they say, like, you don't win your league at your draft. I think it has a lot to do with it because you get those foundation players, and if you can draft good foundational players at good values, like, you're kind of set up for success for the most part, because at the end of the year, they do show, like, all the percentages of the players who actually winning championships. And like, usually you draft those guys. So I think the draft is a big part of overall success in fantasy.
- [22:35]
B
Yeah, man. So much of it is just like, being willing to prepare, being willing to. I know. It's a game, right? And it should be fun. It absolutely should be fun. I always think back to, like, being a kid where coaches, parents, whoever would be like, ah, don't be upset that you lost. Like, it's okay. Like, this is fun. I'm like, losing's not fun. Like, there's nothing fun about that. Like, why would I want to keep doing fantasy football every year if I'm losing?
- [22:59]
C
When my kid is upset? Like, if she's crying because she lost, I'm like, I got a winner here. You know, I got a winner here. Like, if you come off and you just lost and you're like, daddy, can I go? Can we go ice cream now? I'm like, no, no, no.
- [23:14]
B
I'm just winners.
- [23:15]
C
I'll take it for ice cream. But I just know that she's not a winner. You know, I know who I have in my Hands here, you know? But. But yeah, no, I. I get it, man. I. I totally get that. It's. It's. It's just. You have it or you don't. You know what I'm saying? That's another piece of advice. You either have it or you don't. That's a good one, right? I'm just kidding. That's not a real piece of advice.
- [23:34]
B
Listen, I. I think it's. You either. Not that you have, like, the skill, but, like, you either have the want and desire to do well in it or you don't. Right? Like, I think that's pretty simple.
- [23:43]
C
It's so true. It's so true. And you do have to kind of put yourself in a situation where, like, you could get a little bit lucky. Like, if you draft a good team, like, and you get lucky on waivers with some guy that you picked up who ends up breaking out, like, you gotta luck. There's a lot of luck involved, too, especially when you winning the fantasy championship. That's like, you know, you get into the playoffs short, like, it requires some skill or whatever, I think, because actually, yeah, I guess. But, you know, fantasy. To get to a fantasy championship and win it, like, that's. There's a lot of luck involved there for sure.
- [24:13]
B
We're just so close to saying it is 100 luck. At this point. We are towing that line.
- [24:18]
C
I'm thinking about all my boys who, like, made it to the championship, made to the playoffs. I'm just like, you suck.
- [24:24]
B
Yeah.
- [24:25]
C
You know?
- [24:26]
B
Yeah. Yeah.
- [24:28]
C
I'm gonna send them this clip as soon as. As soon as we're done here.
- [24:33]
B
So I know you mentioned, like, right. Like, this is the old mantra that you. You won't lose your. You won't win your league of the draft, but you can lose it if you don't draft. Well, a lot of what that means is simply is, like, keep making moves throughout the season. Right? Like, be good at trading, be good at waivers, be vigilant with all that stuff. Right. How do you approach trades in the middle of the season? Because I know there are so many leagues where trades will just never happen. There's some. Where trades happen all the time. I used to be the guy that, in my league. My league just strip stopped trading with me. They're like, you. You know something. Like, there was. There was me. I got. I think it was. It was rookie Odell Beckham, who hadn't played a single game yet because he was coming off an injury, and then Le'Veon Bell, who was taking over as the new starting running back, traded for, like, Reggie Bush and Vernon Davis. And they're like, these are, these are stars. And then I end up getting this guy. And the league's like, cool, you know, stuff. We're not trading with you anymore, right? I hear that. I hear that all the time. Whenever we put up a trade video on football, guys, people are just like, yeah, my league won't trade with me anymore. So how do you approach trades in your league? Especially, like middle of the season, you get into like a make or break period or even just like casual trades. Like, you're just looking, hey, let me take a little shot over here at some upside.
- [25:47]
C
Yeah, I'm, I, I'm a big fan of, of two for one trades when I can make them. With the caveat of me knowing that a lot of people don't like to be on the side of getting the two players for the one player, because usually when you're trading for that one player, you're getting that upgrade. Now, my, When I, Whenever I look at trades, whenever we. I talk to the community about making trades, right? It's always about, I don't look at, okay, I really want to trade for this player. I, I just, I don't. That's usually not my approach when I'm trading. I go into my league and I look at every single team and I look at what do they need, and I see, oh, can I help them get that thing that they need? And in return, I would love to get that player that they have. Right? And that's how I do it. And I go through every team and do it that way because I think you just have a lot higher of a likelihood to get a trade going because your help, you're literally going into that mindset. Your mindset is basically, I want to help them. I mean, it's not, I mean, like, you really want to help yourself at the end of the day. But again, we were talking about earlier, lead with value, right? You're actually helping somebody. And sometimes I'll. I'll overpay for a player that I want because either a, you know, if I do a two for one, one of those guys was already on my bench anyway. So I'm, I'm literally getting an upgrade in my starting lineup because one of those guys who I'm, I'm trading away is in my starting lineup, but the guy I'm trading for is an upgrade over that player. So I'd rather do that. I, I am all about just making my starting lineup as Good as possible without necessarily worrying too much about depth. Now that could shoot me, you know, a little bit because like this season when you, when I got like Bucky Irving and Mike Evans and you know, you know, all of these players like Malik, Neighbors, like when you have these players who end up getting hurt, like, yeah, it's, it's, it sucks. But you're setting yourself up for the maximum upside for you to win that championship. You can't play scared. And I don't like to play scared. Sometimes I end up like in my home league this year, like, I'm not afraid to say it. Like, I'm close to last place, man, because I made one bad trade. I made. And then on because of, because of all the injuries that I'm going through. And I'm just trying to go for the maximum upside possible, understanding that this team could just, it's like building a house of cards. Like it could literally just fall at any point. And, and that's, that's the direction that I'm leaning in right now. This is the first time I'm doing this bad this year in my home league because it is what it is. No matter what, I'm gonna fight till the end and I'm gonna try to make that roster turn around. But you got to do it through trades and you gotta, you can't be afraid. But you know, at the end of the day, you might see me, you know, at a restaurant with a blow up doll with all my friends recording and it might happen. It is what it is.
- [28:48]
B
See, at that point I would just know you're doing it for the content. Like now you're, now you're doing it for the content, man.
- [28:54]
C
Hey, man, win, win. I guess, right?
- [28:56]
B
Yeah, right. You, you said like, you said it the way I think works best, which is not to be afraid of making these moves and to like be able to embrace some of that risk. J.J. zachary always says it in a really funny way. It's like where he'll tweet out like the waiver wire pickups and then he's like, this guy, two condoms. This guy, one condom. This guy, no condom. Like level of risk. And I kind of think that's how fantasy managers should be. Like playing fantasy football because you don't get points for getting in second place. Like there's not really the moral victory. It's, you're either going for first or like, heck, you're last. Whatever, cool. Just take, take your, your last place fantasy punishment, have some fun with it. But I do think that is the way to look at it. And I love your approach of let me kind of go into the market and see what's fresh as opposed to like, I'm going into the market with a grocery list in mind of like, this is the player I want. Because that becomes so much. You want them for a reason. Right. And if you want that player for a reason, it likely means that fantasy manager wants to keep that player as well. But, you know, you kind of. You brought it back to like, your skill, being able to sell, being able to make that relationship with people. That's something that's like, been a common theme throughout this is you have to have a relationship with people. You don't want to be the guy that gets one up in a trade. And then everyone's like, well, I don't really like trading with you anymore. This isn't fun.
- [30:14]
C
Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.
- [30:17]
B
So this is coming out mid season. At what point for us do you start looking at the fantasy playoffs? Because I know, like in the NFL they say, oh, we take it week by week in fantasy football. I know, like, I know how we are. We're looking already at the fantasy playoffs. We're looking at strength of schedule. We're looking at all those things. Like, at what point do you start looking at fantasy playoff stuff and what exactly are you looking at?
- [30:39]
C
To be honest, I. I am not a huge proponent of making moves based on schedule because, you know, I, you know, from what I've seen, we haven't seen that much of an advantage with players who are going into the fantasy playoffs with amazing schedules. You know, the usage, utilization, their actual talent, you know, those types of things, Whether you're an alpha wide receiver or not, those types of things are. Is really usually what ends up being the real determining factor over. Over matchups. Because a lot of times game script can switch up on you real easy, you know? You know, like this past week, you know, when we're recording like one team had the lowest implied total for the week going into the week, and guess what? Like, they almost won the game. And it was one of the highest scoring games of the week. Right. So there's a lot that changes week and it is a week by week thing, right? Like something you're looking at a really, really good, you know, matchup for your player in week 15 or 16 or 17. But the defenses can get better over that time. Like we see it all the time. The Ravens, for example, like, I feel like year after year, to start the year for the first like nine weeks of the season, they're like hot garbage. And then they figure it out, you know, towards the end, and they're like, you just don't want to start anybody against them. All of a sudden you're like, what just happened? And it's not even like they got that much healthier, you know, they figured it out. And that's why, you know, when I'm matchups too, I'm always looking at, you know, what do they do over the course of this? What do they give up over the course of the season? But also what do they give up over the last four games, for example? And sometimes those are like stark differences. So, you know, I'll be honest. Like, I just want the best players and the possible opposed to, hey, who are the guys who can win me championships? But that, because at the end of the day, the league winners last year, it wasn't really about matchup. It was just that they hit the right stride at the right time.
- [32:43]
B
Yeah, yeah. There was stuff like Brian Thomas Jr. Going off at the right time towards the end of the year with Mac Jones. Like, you can't plan for Mac Jones showing up and being the Jaguar starting quarterback last season. Like, he's just Bucky Irving going in because Rashad White gets hurt and then like his role just expanded. You can't plan for those things. Like, that's not stuff you see on schedule. But if that's the case, right, like we're saying good players, good situation, all that, what's the thing that you do? Like, how do you prepare for the fantasy playoffs? What is it? Is it being hyper vigilant with waivers? Is it really pursuing trades in a heavy way or. Sometimes the hardest thing for us to do as fantasy managers, just sit on our hands and like, don't do anything. Just let your team, let your team marinate for a little bit.
- [33:26]
C
I think the closer that we get to fantasy playoffs, you want as much contingent upside on your bench as possible, right? So have as many of the, the running back handcuffs, for example, on your bench, right? Don't let those, that the Tyler Algiers or the Ray Davises of the world just sit on waivers. Have them on your bench and like, because of bye weeks, those guys are going to be dropped, right? A bunch of those guys, like this week, for example, like, you know, if a guy like Bashel Tootin is dropped because the Jaguars have a bye week, right? Like, that's your opportunity to put someone like him on your bench because you have that contingent upside in case a starter gets hurt. So all those types of things all of a sudden you had, you had a solid team going into the playoffs, but all of a sudden you, you hit, you get that like last infinity stone, right, that you could put into your starting lineup. And now all of a sudden I know you're a big Marvel guy too, right?
- [34:17]
B
You got me.
- [34:18]
C
Yeah. So like, you know, the last guy to put in your lineup and you're like, oh, like this is a legit contender here. And all of a sudden that player is getting 23 touches a game and just put you over the top because they average 23 points during the fantasy playoffs, right? So I think, I think that's, that's, that's a big part to really make some drastic moves going into the playoffs. It's really hard to do, right? Yes, you can make some trades and things like that, but if you see the underlying utilization kind of dropping for a player, if you see it increasing for another player, target share, route participation, you know, running back opportunity share, backfield share, that kind of stuff, like those are the type of thing, types of things you should pay attention to. Like obviously before your trade deadline is up, but then once your trade deadline is over, I think it's really about just grabbing as much, much contingent upside as possible and throwing that on your bench just in case you get lucky.
- [35:12]
B
You mentioned something where you're talking about the specific example of Bashaw Tootin, right? Like being dropped because he's on a buy. One of the things I think is always pretty interesting is rookie utilization before and after a bye week. Like I, we do tend to see a lot of different utilization for these players that we call it just the post buy bump, right. And it may not happen the first week or the second week, but eventually you start to see that their deployment is used a little bit differently. Jaguars, for example, like just, I know this is going to be dated by the time this already comes out, right? We might be totally wrong, but the Jaguars just came off of a rough game. Not that Travis ETN was bad, but everything in that offense is a little less effective, including baseball Tootin at the moment. But like that's a player. For example, if I see him on waivers, I'm gonna go out and stash him real quick. Is that something that you subscribe to where you're seeing rookies or players that you expect for that breakout players that have been hyper efficient but haven't had the role. And do you say the bye week's coming up? I know he's going to be dropped. I want to go and try to stash that player for the post buy bump?
- [36:11]
C
Yeah, I think so. But it really depends though, right? I. I think there's wish casting and there's forecasting, right? And I think there are certain players where, you know, you're kind of hoping that, you know, they get opportunity. But, like, is the running back ahead of them, for example, really that bad to the coaches? Are they kind of looking at that situation like, oh, like, you know, you got to get in the head of their, of their coaches and say, like, you know, how bad is that player? I. I think in that situation, for example, like Travis Etienne, like, is he going to really lose his job? Now, you brought up Bucky Irving before, for example, right? Rashad White was super inefficient, right, in the run game, right. Going into that year and over the first couple games of that season. And, you know, you have a guy like Bucky Irving with all the opportunities that he was getting, he was looking great, and he had a lot of hype during the season from the coaches, and he was kind of getting touches very early on. So, so many signs of that potentially happening, right? Where you're like, okay, this makes a lot of sense to stash that type of player. So I think there's a fine line between that and someone who might just end up being a pure handcuff. Like, as we stand right now, Randre Stevenson just entirely took over the backfield, you know, in New England. And, you know, everyone who drafted Trayvon Henderson is super upset now.
- [37:33]
B
Yeah.
- [37:34]
C
Is Travis Henderson just a handcuff, or is he somebody that we should be holding and hoping that, you know, he ends up getting the role? Like, maybe, like, if he fumbles 14 more times, maybe, you know, Roman Stevenson will lose that job, who knows? And it'll be funny to hear, like, when this actually comes out, like, to see, like, what actually happened. But Trayvon Henderson, like, you know, he's right now, as of today, like, he's a handcuff, right? So is he somebody who's just going to get a pose by rookie pump? Like, there's no indication of that happening. So I think we have to be a little bit smart in terms of, like, okay, are we just hoping or are there signs that point to that, whether it's underlying utilization or whatever it may be?
- [38:11]
B
Yeah, it. It goes back to the thing we talked about earlier. Context clues, right? Like, what is around it so much of, for example, like, not patting myself on the back, like, I wasn't buying into the Bay shooting stuff in the preseason because a lot of it was just, well, Liam Cohen's the coach and Bucky Irving did this thing with Liam Cohen. So Bashal Tutin is Bucky Irving, right? No, they're different players. And like, yes, there's some nice data sets coming out of college and some good, you know, athletic profile stuff, but there was also still just the Travis Etienne of it all and him not being a bad player. Bashal Tootin having his fumble issues. Like there are context clues that we need to have. And I think the way you framed it here is perfect, right? It's like, why would coming out of the buy would they say, you know what our problem is, is we need to go and use this other running back who has been inefficient for our like somewhat inefficient run game lately. Like they have such bigger problems on the Jaguars right now than who's running the football. And so like that's just something important for fantasy managers to keep in mind. Like it's not just this rookie that I really liked has the chance to break it. Trevion Henderson is the other guy, right? Like you just said, it'll be funny to see where we're at. Ramondra Stevenson's coming off his best game of the season and Trevan Henderson's worst utilization of the season. I can't imagine it's going to get better for him.
- [39:27]
C
It's funny because that Basial Tootin guy that you described earlier, that was me. That was me.
- [39:33]
B
I know him. He's me.
- [39:34]
C
That's. I know that guy sounds super familiar.
- [39:40]
B
So, okay, so we get later here into the season, right? How what do you prioritize most on your roster? Like, I know one of the early episodes I had with Jake Seeley was don't waste your bench. Right? That's what he said. Like that was his big advice to people is don't waste your bench. And like that's specifically in terms of like how we draft. But when you get into the season, you know, what is it that you're prioritizing to have on your team? Is the high upside rookies that maybe we're wish casting that breakout is the contingency plans, the handcuffs. What is it for you that you are prioritizing most?
- [40:13]
C
It is the contingency handcuffs for sure. Because those guys can just literally win your leagues, right? Like if you're starting to stud running backs, for example, and you're starting some solid wide receivers, if you know, knock on wood, one of the starters in a really good offense goes down and you have the handcuff for that offense. Now you can plug that running back into your flex. Now you have three potential RB1s on your team. That is going to go a long way for you to just stack up wins and wins and wins all the way to the fantasy championship, for example. So big fan of that. I'm also like, you know, like one of those guys who takes advantage of platform rules. Right. So, for example, like on maybe Sleeper or some of these other platforms where you can drop bench players after they play during the play window. So for example, if on, on a Thursday night, if I can grab the handcuff for that team, I will. And on some platforms like Sleeper and Yahoo, you can drop that bench player after they play. So if the starter doesn't get hurt, I'll just drop that handcuff and then I'll go ahead and pick up the player who's at 1pm Eastern and I'll just continue that cycle, drop him, pick up another player from the 4:25 cycle and drop him and then go into Monday night, do the same thing and just like try to get, try to just turn my bench with that one or two roster spots that I'm continuing to churn. I usually like, just reserve at least one roster spot, one bench spot. I should say to do that. I know some people absolutely hate the idea of that and I totally understand it, but that's the game. I'm also. I'm also. Yeah, exactly. It's the game. And if your platform allows it, if your league allows it and you know, it's. It's part of the rules, then like, yeah, just like take advantage and just do your thing because it's way better than spending up on waivers, you know, the following week and you have to blow your entire fab. I think the other thing too is I try to avoid players that I call roster cloggers. Like guys who, you know, just like this wide receiver four that you're just hanging on to on your bench who you'll never ever start. And when it comes time to start them, you're actually looking on the waiver wire just to see like, is there another better wide receiver to start over, the guy you already have on your bench? That's a good sign that that guy doesn't belong in your bench.
- [42:33]
B
Yeah. So how, when you. I love, I love this advice of like being able to grab guys and go by the platform rules and then drop them if you need to, even mid game, whatever it may be. How many leagues are you in? How many leagues are you in that you're able to focus on that because that's. I've heard people say, like, oh, I just keep it tight. You know, it's two or three leagues, and I've heard, like, I'm in 18 leagues and I absolutely hate it and I need to get out of them.
- [42:58]
C
Yeah, that was me a few years ago. I'm in five leagues this year.
- [43:02]
B
That's beautiful.
- [43:02]
C
Couple dynasties, a few redrafts, and that's it. And then, like, one of the. One of the redraft is Scottfish. So, like, really just two and two. So I keep it tight. And I still have a hard time, like, setting my lineup. I still have a hard time doing waivers. I will forget to, like, put my. Like. And it's coming from me. That's super embarrassing. Like, that's just like, the worst. Dude, dude, like, you, like, you aren't. Don't you, like, do fantasy football, like, for a living? Like, and you can't even do your waivers? Like, what's wrong with you? And I'm just like, I'm sorry. Like, you know what happens is that on Tuesdays when it's waiver wire day, you know, it just, like, I got soccer practice with my kids. I got, like, other things that I do. I like to cook dinner, you know, and then, like, and I just. And I just, you know, live life. Like, we just got a new kitchen. I'm like, hanging out in the kitchen. Like, this is so nice. I just go to sleep and then I wake up and it's like, oh, my God. Who's left? Who is left on the waivers? Like, like, it's like 5:30am and I'm just like, scouring waivers, and I'm like, oh, no, this guy got picked up. And yeah, so I just pick up scraps, and that's why I lose.
- [44:09]
B
You're just a raccoon eating over the sink with your little paws.
- [44:13]
C
Just brutal. It's brutal. Then I pick up. I pick up that one guy. I'm like, yeah, that was sneaky for us. Nice job. Nice job. He's like, and I just dropped in the following week.
- [44:22]
B
You just try to make yourself feel better, right?
- [44:26]
C
So bad.
- [44:27]
B
So, okay, when you are on time with your start set decisions or like, even trades or waivers, whatever, what's the guiding principle? Like, what's the thing you always come back to if you're like, okay, this guy or this guy? What is the thing that helps you make your decisions? That sort of of swings the pendulum.
- [44:44]
C
For you on waivers?
- [44:47]
B
Specifically on any of these waivers, Making a starter sit decision trades. I mean, they could be different things for each, each thing, right? Like maybe for some it's upside, but for others it's safety. Like, what is it for you?
- [44:59]
C
Yeah, no, I, so, so if I'm trying to make a decision on like who to pick up on waivers, for example, like I, I want to, I want somebody who I think, assuming I'm not looking for just a short term ad, I look at like future value. Like, is this player's value going to potentially increase as the season goes on? Is this a young player who show, who is showing some signs who could potentially grow or is this a veteran? You know, like I'm looking at Josh Reynolds on the waiver wire as the lead target getter on the Jets. Well, he's been on multiple team, multiple teams for a long time and he's never proved himself to be a target or why would he be one now? And if he does, it might be a short term thing. So like, do I really want to like cloud my roster master with someone like that? Probably not. So I, I do usually look for something, you know, a little bit more long term and somebody who could potentially like break out in a couple weeks. And I like to put guys on my bench who also could have a potentially good week. So that now my bench, my bench value increased and if my bench value increases, that means that I could use them as trade pieces and trade bait.
- [46:09]
B
Right?
- [46:09]
C
And that's key. I love when my like, you know, it sucks when you know your bench player absolutely goes off, right? And they're not in your starting lineup. Like we've all been through that multiple times a week in my case. But I, I take that as a positive and I try to figure out how I can move those players if I wasn't going to put them in my lineup. All right, now let me use that good week and maybe is there, this is a sell high opportunity. This is now a player that I can include include in a trade package because now he's way more attractive than he would have been if he didn't go off right? So like those are the type of players I like to keep my bench just so that I could potentially keep my moves flexible, you know, moving forward.
- [46:48]
B
That's, that's a great way to keep everything fluid for your roster. Make, you know, make lemonade out of lemons, man. I know like, that's always the thing be like, ah, should have started this guy. He went off on my bench. You could start him next week or you can trade him and now, like, he still has value for you, right? Like, it's something that is still there. We talked about so much, man, like, so many. Well, one, I think you've given, like, so many cool little tips and tricks that. That even I'm just like, oh, damn. All right. I didn't think to do that, but I. I think there's. There's something here that is always very translatable from a fantasy analyst to just a person who doesn't do this for a living. And it's trying to figure out what is that skill that they might have. Like, what is an underrated or underutilized skill that. That pretty much anyone has that they maybe aren't using in their fantasy league or that they need to have to find success in fantasy football?
- [47:39]
C
Yeah, I think one. One thing they can easily look at, and this is really from the data side, too, right? And you can easily find this, like, in multiple, you know, sites and stuff like that, is just looking at expected fantasy points for a player and their actual fantasy points and what they've scored. If you. If you saw, like, I'll give you an example. I know that this episode's not coming out right away, but Chris Olave, for example, coming into this week, I think, if I'm not mistaken, he was like, number one in expected fantasy points per game coming into the week. And he was, I think, actually like, 25th or whatever it was. And he ended up, you know, kind of, like, regressing to the mean, and he scored two touchdowns and he almost had 100 yards in this game and things like that. So I think that can help you identify players who might be undervalued because their expected fantasy points was so high, but their actual fantasy points was so low. And then you combine that with knowing that Chris Olave is a damn good wide receiver and a true alpha wide receiver, you're like, well, this should probably change at some point or at least get a little bit better. Right? Like, I wasn't expecting him to be the actual wide receiver one, you know, in fantasy football because, you know, there's a lot of quarterback. There's a quarterback issue over there. Offensive situation isn't, like, ideal, but it should be better than what he's doing. Right. So there's a little bit of in between there. And now you have a little bit of a delta in potential value. And he was able to come through. Right. And then just looking at all the underlying stuff. Right. Ramandre Stevenson, the week before, he didn't get a ton of. Of Work, Right? But, you know, you saw that, like, the touch. The touch disparity and the snap disparity was huge. And you're like, oh, there might be something here. And also, nobody likes from Andre right now. Let me go trade for him. You know, Isaiah Pacheco the week before, huge snapshare, but didn't get a lot of touches. You're like, whoa, where did that snapshot come from? That's new. Oh, is he like, nobody likes. Nobody wants him either, because he has. He's been underperforming. You trade for him. Okay. Boom. He just scored a touchdown this past game and got similar usage. So I. I think just looking a little bit at the underlying usage for players would be huge. I think one really great way. So, you know, we put out, you know, takeaways, like, you know, every week, for example, Right. And we. We do look at that underlying stuff. Right. I think Dwayne McFarlane also does a great job over a fantasy life. You know, he also looks at that kind of stuff. There's a lot of really, really smart people. Ryan Heath, you know, at fantasy points, you know, J.J. zacharies, and, you know, puts a data dump out as well. Right? Like, there's a. There's a ton of free options out there that you can go take a look at, and then it'll kind of give you a little bit of a clue as to, like, who might be overvalued, undervalued, and, you know, who might be the right and wrong starts moving forward.
- [50:25]
B
Man, this is. This has been great, this whole thing. Expected fantasy points for Faraz Sadiqi is, like, way, way up. Actual fantasy points also way up. Like, this feels. This just feels great. This feels great. This is a really good episode, man. Like, I feel like I learned a lot. I know our audience got to learn a lot from this. And on top of that, just, like, the vibes, man, like, they just enjoyed the conversation. I know that for sure. What's next for Frost, man? Like, I'm seeing you everywhere. I've already been always seeing you on. On my Instagram feed, but now I'm seeing you on. On Yahoo. With Matt Harmon. I'm seeing you on Underdog Fantasy with Josh Norris. Like, you're. You're everywhere. So what is next for you and.
- [51:03]
C
Upper Hand Fantasy, you know, it's. I'm just trying to keep doing my thing, putting myself out there, and the more you put yourself out there and you stay prepared and you, you know, you put that energy out there, you know, opportunities, I guess, will find Me, you know, and find us, you know, as, as, as an. As a. As a company, I guess, you know, and, like, that's really how we like to do it, you know, just keep doing it. You know what I mean? I always think about that picture, you know, with the, with, with the guy with the pickaxe, you know what I mean? Like, and the opportunities right there. That's how I look at it. And I kind of feel like I'm going to be doing that forever because, you know, I just, I. I'm enjoying what I'm doing and I'm going to continue to do it. And like, the more opportunities, I think more opportunities will come just because, you know, we stay prepared and like, we, we put ourselves out there and we work hard and, you know, I, I enjoy it, man, and look like I'm here with you, you know what I mean? And it's stuff like this, you know, it's like, you know, if. If we weren't doing our thing, like, Alfredo, like, you wouldn't care about having me on here, right? So that's really what it comes down to, dude. And, you know, just. Just continuing to do our thing and, you know, put out good content and have fun with it, dude.
- [52:14]
B
First of all, I would love to have you on here, regardless of what work you're doing. We got to meet, like, what was it, three years ago at fsga. That was. Dude, that was cool, man. Like, that was just so cool to like, get to meet someone who was like, I'm doing my own thing. I'm not at some big company. I'm not like, you know, there was no agenda. Like, you're just, you're just. You're just talking like you were just real. And I. And I've always loved that and appreciated that. And that comes through in your analysis as well. Like, you are the guy that explains everything you come up with. Come across always very genuine. And that's not, like, that's not you putting on a face for the world. Like, that is who you are, knowing you behind the scenes, man. So I, I love that you're able to join me today. I appreciate it so much. Thank you so much. Can you let everybody know where to find your. You on socials and your work and everything? What you got coming?
- [53:01]
C
Yeah, for sure. And. And that means a lot coming from you, Alfredo. It really means a lot. So I really appreciate the kind of words, man, but, you know, upper hand fantasy over on Instagram, you know, you can send me a dm, hit me up, leave a comment whatever you want and I'll find you if you ever start sick question whatever it is. Life advice, you know, not that I can give any good one. I could give anything good there, but just hit me up in the DMs upper hand. Fantasy.
- [53:25]
B
Spend more time in the kitchen, everybody. That's. That's for us. Life.
- [53:27]
C
That's what it is, man.
- [53:29]
B
Go cook for your family. And no ice cream unless you win. That is it.
- [53:37]
C
It's true.
- [53:38]
B
Well, for everyone watching or listening, I want to thank you guys for watching. Listening all the way through myself for Faraz. We'll see you next time. Adios.
- [53:57]
D
Calling all new TikTok users. TikTok brings together fun, inspiration and shopping all in one app. And here's a special treat for you. Download TikTok, search for Get Tick G E T T I K and instantly get $20, no minimum spend voucher. Just for joining. Search for GetTick. Use it right away on a wide range of TikTok Shop products. No limits, no catch. It's quick, it's easy, and it's all yours. Download TikTok now and claim your voucher today.