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Joey Wright
When I found out I was going to be a parent, I immediately felt a lot of anxiety and worry. So I went on to BetterHelp to try to look for a therapist to help me with that.
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My relationship with my family and with my boyfriend and with myself were suffering.
Dave Kluge
I really needed help. I was ruminating a lot. Really getting those thoughts out to a
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therapist and getting feedback was just life changing.
Dave Kluge
Discover what BetterHelp online therapy can do for you.
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Dave Kluge
It might be too early for a lot of people to think about drafting fantasy football teams, but not for Joey right now. We have been drafting for the last couple of months here and today we are going to talk about our favorite values in drafts. We are using NFFC adp. This is where real players are putting up high stakes money in actual fantasy football drafts. So the sharpest ADP you can get out there, Joey, we're going to go through quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and then we're each going to pick two flex spots as well. Let's start with the quarterbacks. Who is the quarterback value this year that you cannot stop drafting?
Joey Wright
Yeah, it's, it's funny. I don't think I need to sell anybody on why Patrick Mahomes is great. I think I just need to sell you on why his value is great. Right now he's going as QB14 and 89th overall over on NFFC. Last year's QB2 and fantasy points per game. I know he didn't play the whole season, but he was still the QB2 on a points per game basis. Eight straight seasons as a top 12 quarterback, including four top five seasons in two seasons where he was the number one overall quarterback. Why is he going so late if he's so good? Well, he had an injury last year and there's question marks surrounding when that return date is going to be and what's he going to look like when he returns. I'm not necessarily worried about from a fantasy perspective, the question mark on the return date. Quarterback is such a deep position that even if you go and grab Patrick Mahomes as let's say the eighth quarterback, the ninth quarterback off the board, you can get somebody to fill in the first few weeks. The Chiefs did go out and get Justin Fields, so Justin Fields looks like if Mahomes is not there to start the season, Fields is going to start the season. That's a great fill in you could get at the very last round of your draft to grab Justin Fields. The ACL injury return is what I'm a little more concerned about and I think that's kind of why that value has fallen so much for him. QB numbers have never historically been hurt that much by an ACL injury for the quarterback, like the throwing numbers. So I couldn't really look at any quarterback comps there. What I did instead was I looked at some players that were over the age of 30 that had ACL injuries that were athletic and you know, because Patrick Mahomes likes to move around in the pocket, know creates plays with his legs. So how did these players that were over 30, that were athletes, how were their seasons affected? I looked at Reggie Wayne, Jordy Nelson, Julian Edelman and Stefon Diggs, all players that tore their ACLs after the age of 30 and all returned to Priestley pre injury form the following season. So I'm not necessarily too worried about Patrick Holmes once he gets back on the field. Like I said, if you're worried that he's going to start the season, go out, use a late round pick on Justin Fields or you know, a Tyler Shock, somebody that I'm also very in on this season. But getting Patrick Mahomes as the fourth quarterback off the board, once he's on the field, he's going to be outstanding for the Chiefs. There's no doubt about that.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, there's so much to unpack here and A lot of things that I want to talk about based on what you just said. But like I had Heath Cummings on the show last week and I said is Patrick Mahomes going to be back week one? And he said, I am certain that there is going to be somebody in a Patrick Mahomes jersey on the field in week one. Now is that going to be the Patrick Mahomes of old? We don't really know yet and there has been a lot of his production coming from rushing, but he's not a Lamar Jackson type rusher. He's not a guy that we're hoping is going to rush for a thousand yards. He's more of a scrambling, especially near the goal line getting you that 3, 350 rushing yards every single year. But with Rashi Rice there, we know that it's just going to be an extension of the run game. They're going to check down a lot. Ken Walker is going to help keep defenses a little bit more honest. And then of course Emma Johnson, a great pass catching running back that they can add into this backfield as well. So I think even if we do see a little D in rushing which is expected for a 30 year old coming off of an ACL, I think it can be offset by some of the extra passing that we expect in this offense. And the last thing I want to say here is there's this like mindset that if you're drafting a player who's injured that you have to take a zero when they're not playing. And it is so frustrating. I feel like I explain this every single off season. We had this talk last year with Rashi Rice. You're not taking a zero for the weeks that Patrick Mahomes like if he's not ready week one, big deal. You'll find somebody that you can stream those early weeks and then you are plugging in a QB one when he does return. So I am with you. Not only is Patrick Mahomes a good value, but he's also falling below ADP in a lot of the drafts that I've been doing recently. I got him as the QB17 off the board in a draft last night. It's just unbelievable that people are just leaving this guy for dead in drafts. Joey, real quick before we talk about some more players though, I want to talk about nffc. We are doing the football guys online championship this year. $350 to enter with a third $300,000 grand prize. On top of that grand prize though, you can win just for taking down your division. So you draft with 11 other people. You're in a division of 12. If you win that $1,700 up top and then you get entered into the playoffs for a chance to win a $300,000 grand prize. We already drafted one of these teams the Thursday night right after round one. We're doing another tomorrow right here on The Football Guys YouTube channel. You can sign up for that yourself if you'd like to join footballguys.com nffc signup we're going to be doing that tomor tomorrow at 8pm eastern right here live streaming the event. So be sure to join that draft if you want to play against us. But Joey, we're going to talk about some more quarterbacks here that we prefer than getting into some other positions. Mine is Kyler Murray. I have this guy in almost 50% of the drafts that I've drafted already and one he's a good player. Two, I love the situation that he has right here going into a Kevin o' Connell offense where he gets to throw the ball to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hawkinson if you look at Kevin oconnell's recent resume with quarterbacks, it is wildly impressive. He was an offensive coordinator for Matthew Stafford that 2021 season where Stafford bounced back in a huge way, got his first super bowl ring. The next year he goes to Minnesota. 2022 Kirk Cousins shows up, immediately has the best season of his career. Then we see him turn Sam Darnold from this cast off in the NFL to a highly sought after free agent who won a Super bowl in his first year out from underneath Kevin o'. Connell. And then we've seen flashes from Nick Mullins and Josh Dobbs. I mean Daniel Jones went from being like the joke of the NFL to a franchise quarterback just from spending half a season sitting on the bench there in Minnesota. And then you look at Kyler Murray. I don't think that he has been a bad quarterback. The problem is he never really took that step forward like the player he was as a rookie was the same player he was in year seven. But this guy, immediate Rookie of the Year, back to back Pro Bowls, gets a huge extension and then towards acl when he came back he was still the player that he was. His rookie season, his numbers in year six when he played a full year, almost identical to what we saw his rookie season. Still rushing all over the place, still making some of those big explosive plays since coming into the league. He is fourth among all quarterbacks in rushing behind only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen and he is seventh in fantasy points per game. So we're looking at a guy who has consistently been a mid tier QB1 and right now he is being drafted as the QB20. This guy is being drafted way below his floor. I mean he has a top 12 floor and a top three ceiling and you can get this guy right now as the QB20 in drafts. I'm not sure there's an easier player to pick right now.
Joey Wright
Yeah, I love the call out on Kyler Murray and I think Kyler Murray is going to be coming into his best situation as far as pass catchers go. And if you want to, I mean he's not on our list today. But Justin Jefferson, I don't believe you picked him but he's going super late. You can get him at the beginning of the second round. Yeah, yeah. Like that's insane. Like if Kyler Murray can, you know, just is going to be a step up from what they've had in the past. Jeffrey, Jeff. Justin Jefferson is going to get unlocked again. But yeah, I like Kyler Murray a lot this year as well. So I agree with you on that for sure.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And it's one of those like I don't know if people have just gotten bored or what. Like Kyler's going into year seven. I think a lot of people also don't know how to like read the details of the contract. There's some people out there that probably just say like ooh, a vet minimum contract. Like this is a prove it deals. No, he's getting a vet minimum deal because Arizona is on the hook for his whole contract. So this is very similar to the Russell Wilson situation a few years ago. The difference is Kyler Murray isn't over the age hill yet. Like he is still in the prime of his career in a good situation with a good coach, good playmakers. Now he's a couple years removed from that acl so we should see the rushing as well. This to me whether you're in four point passing touchdowns, six point passing touchdowns. Kyler Murray can absolutely smash this QB 2080p Joey, let's talk about some running backs. I wanted to talk about this guy and I filled in my players on the show sheet before you did. I purposely left this guy available for you, but he has also been one of my favorite players to draft this year.
Joey Wright
Yeah, I'm going to beat the drum again but I have some updates on my drum beating from earlier this off season. Javante Williams, RB19 or 36 overall. So right at the end of the third round, beginning of the fourth, somewhere in there. Like I said, we've covered him a lot but the NFL draft has happened and Dallas has done absolutely nothing to bring anybody else in to do anything to Javonte Williams value. Last season he finished at the RB11 career highs and rushing touchdowns and rushing yards and he's removed from that ACL injury a few years back. Javante Williams is the running back to have in Dallas for sure and one of the things I love about him and I mentioned this before is the red zone work. Top five in rushing yards and and rushing attempts behind only Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor inside the five yard line as well. I've got Javante Williams ahead of Bucky Irving, Travis Et Achan. I did it. I, I did it. I, I said I'm not going to do it. I was calling you out but no Travis Achan, Kyron Williams and everybody's bell of the ball who I just can't seem to get in on Kenneth Walker. I'm just wheels up on Javonte Williams. He has nothing but opportunity there. Over 280 total touches last year. I see him just easily replicating that again this season. I don't understand why he's going so late.
Dave Kluge
Dave yeah, I am in complete agreement with you. I do prefer Ken Walker by one spot but I've got Javante Williams right Now as my RB14 which is much higher than consensus. And Jeff Bell and I, we just had this discussion where we talked about in Dynasty do you prefer Javante Williams or Kyron Williams? And I think the immediate gut reaction to everybody would be Kyron Williams. But you look, Javante Williams is younger, he's in a better offense, he doesn't have anybody that's going to push to split touches with him. So I think there's this mindset that Javante Williams is this dusty old running back who has dealt with injuries. He came into the league so young, still just 25 years old, he has not even reached the prime of his career. He is one of the league's best backfields to himself. He's on a multi year contract there. He looked good last year. He's only getting further removed from the knee injury. This guy catches passes, scores touchdowns, breaks tackles, does everything we want to see in fantasy football. Just one of the best values out there right now. I couldn't agree more with you guy. I'm going to talk about next year. Joey is a guy that I think you've changed your tune on a little bit. David Montgomery. Yeah. And I just, you know, we've seen a trend how the Texans want to treat their backfield. They want to trade or sign for these aging vets and just run them until the wheels fall off. We saw Joe Mixon, they traded a seventh round pick for him a couple of years ago. We saw Nick Chubb come in last year on that one year $2.5 million deal. And then this year they went out and they traded a fourth and a seventh for David Montgomery. So they don't want to spend premium draft capital. They don't want to go after the most expensive free agents. They kind of want to moneyball this backfield with some good, steady veterans. And that's exactly what David Montgomery is. Now. I think we're going to see David Montgomery probably a little bit closer to Joe Mixon in this offense than Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb, coming back off that horrific knee injury over age 30, like it was kind of easy to see that things weren't going to work out for him. But Joe Mixon, when he was in his prime in this offense in 2024, he played 11 full games where he saw over 50% of the snaps. There was one game he left early with an injury and then missed a few weeks. He also had two games late in the season where they were out of playoff contention. And he didn't play that much in those 11 games, though he had over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown in seven of those 11 games. I mean, this guy was just printing RB1 weeks every single time he' step on the field. And I think that's what we're going to see from David Montgomery in this offense. We've also seen some little spurts here from Damian Pierce and Woody Marks, running backs who aren't even that good, but the opportunity was there. And if you look, Nick Haley, the offensive coordinator, he was a part of the Los Angeles Rams when they really switched to that bell cow usage with Kyron Williams. And that's how they want to operate here in Houston. So this is an improved offensive line. We expect them to be a little bit better. We know David Montgomery is a talented running back, and there are some of the telltale signs here of being a potential dead zone guy. He's aging, he's in a new offense. We talk about the projectable volume that doesn't always stick throughout the season, but I think that's baked into his cost right now. He is being drafted as an RB3 and he legitimately has RB1 upside in this offense sitting there in round five. Just such an easy player to draft.
Joey Wright
So yeah, where do you have him in your rankings? I'm just curious where we're at.
Dave Kluge
Good question. Just pulled it up. Right now I have him at RB20, so I've got him right behind Bucky Irving, Travis A. Chan. But I prefer David Montgomery to DeAndre Swift, Treveon Henderson, Jalen Morin. I mean, I've got him as a top 20 running back and that is not where ADP has him right now, where he's going as the RB25.
Joey Wright
And there's something really important about us and I want to know where you kind of had it because I feel like David Montgomery is the end of the cliff once he's taken. For me, he is the last running back that I really trust is having like I would like to have him as an RB2 ideally. But if I'm starting a draft and I'm just getting great wide receiver value, David Montgomery is kind of the last running back I really trust to be my RB1. I have really changed my tune on him. I do think he's going to have a ton of volume in this offense and what I kind of. I don't know if you hit on this directly, but you know, we saw what he was doing in Detroit and he looked great pretty much anytime he had the ball. And his mileage was kind of low because Jameer Gibbs was there working with him. And I think that's one of the things I secretly like about him a lot. I'm with you on David Montgomery. I have changed my tomb. I've. I've learned the error of my ways. Everyone in the YouTube chats, you know, still leave your comments. You know, you can sway me.
Dave Kluge
To be fair though, I think your David Montgomery take too. You had talked about them potentially looking for a rookie in the draft and they didn't draft. So now we're going in Woody Marks. I mean, sure, there were some usable weeks in fantasy, but if you look at the efficiency metrics, he was awful last year. They do not want to give the ball to Woody Marks unless they have to. And then you talk about that low mileage as well. We saw he was getting like 50% of the snaps when Ben Johnson was there. But we just saw a huge shift in offensive philosophy last year when Dan Campbell took over the offense and we did see it become the Jameer Gibbs show. So now I'm kind of looking at David Montgomery going into this situation now where he got very little usage last year. He's going to have Fresh legs. I mean this to me, like I was very in on Joe Mixon going into that 2024 season when he had his big breakout with the Houston Texans. And to me, this just feels like an almost identical situation. And you talk about it after David Montgomery, then you're looking at the Cam Scatter Boos and Quinjohn Judkins coming back from injuries. You're looking at Treveon Henderson in a split backfield, DeAndre Swift in a split backfield. So it does feel like David Montgomery is the last guy that you can draft. Doesn't really need luck to break in his favor, doesn't need an injury to break in his favor just on his own accord. Could end up being an RB one in Houston.
Joey Wright
Absolutely.
Dave Kluge
All right, Joey, let's talk about some some wide receivers here and we are already just aligning on so many takes. This is a guy that I just took in a draft that you and I are in together. Felt like I got a great value there and a guy that I've been aggressively drafting this off season.
Joey Wright
I'm really shocked. Like, I thought the moment DJ Moore landed in Buffalo, his ADP was just going to go through the roof. It has not happened yet. NFFC wide receiver 34, 78th overall. I have to do math to know that's like middle of like what, the sixth round. Is that right?
Dave Kluge
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Joey Wright
Middle of the sixth round for DJ Moore, a guy that's going to be the number one wide receiver in the Buffalo Bills offense just seems crazy. The last time DJ Moore had an ADP that was he finished worse than the ADP he has now was 2018, his rookie year and since then six out of seven seasons as a top 24 wide receiver in his last years in Chicago saw some of his best touchdown production last year you did see kind of a dip in volume, but I think that has a lot more to do with who Chicago brought in at that point. You know, Colson Loveland at the end of the season was just a target monster. And then you got Roma Dunes and Luther Burden also on the field. The ball is going to get spread around a lot. There's not as much talent on the field for Buffalo right now for DJ Moore to get the ball in his hands. I assume there's going to be some time for acclimation with him and Josh Allen, which hopefully just get done during the training camp and the preseason. Once those two are on the same page, sky's the limit. D.J. moore has wide receiver one upside and he's Someone that's going as like a wide receiver three almost right now.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And, you know, I think, Joey, something that a lot of people are good at here at football, guys, it's something I do. It's something you do. Something Jeff Bell does is we can kind of speak different languages. You know, you've got some people that are like 100% film, other people that are 100% analytics, and we can kind of see both sides of the coin here. And I think this is one where I'm okay kind of ignoring the analytics because if you look at it, yes, DJ Moore has been trending down for the last couple of seasons. And typically betting on a guy heading into his age 29 season to bounce back isn't always a bet that we want to make. But when you start looking at the schematics and how things played out while he was in Chicago, he, I mean, I called this last season like he was not a good fit in Ben Johnson's offense. Ben Johnson's offense is predicated on timing being at your spot when you're supposed to. We want that quarterback dropping back as soon as he hits that last step in his drop step, just getting the ball right to where a receiver should be. And DJ Moore is more of an off script guy. He's going to feel how the defense is playing him and just try to naturally get open. We saw that in week one where DJ Moore had what could have been a wide open touchdown, but rather than just sending that route straight to the end zone, he kind of broke inside where he saw a little bit of a soft spot and. And then it looked like Caleb Williams missed him when really it was a miscommunication. We saw that on the last play of the Bears season as well, where Caleb Williams threw that interception where DJ Moore was supposed to keep heading down downfield. Instead he kind of felt the softness broke a little bit flatter and ended up getting picked and ending the Bears season. On the flip side, Josh Allen is very off script. You know, he's running all over the field. He just wants his guys to get open and then he's going to rip it to him and get the ball to him. And that's the type of quarterback Justin fields was when D.J. moore had a 1400 yard season just a couple of years ago. So I think what happened is we saw this Bears team go out and trade for DJ Moore in that huge trade for the number one overall pick, they got DJ Moore in return, and he was a great fit in a Justin Fields offense when they Made the switch to DJ Moore and when they made the switch to Caleb Williams and then they brought in Ben Johnson, it just wasn't a good schematic fit. So now I think he's back in an offense that plays up to his skill set. We saw him have a good year in Carolina with Joe Brady for to me, I get so excited about this landing spot. So, sure, aging receiver production has dipped over the last couple of years, but I think this is exactly what he needs to get back on track.
Joey Wright
Yeah. Just the last little point on DJ Moore. Like we, we know that Joey likes his Buccaneers. It's a known thing on the show. I have DJ Moore as my wide receiver. 20 in a Joey's favorite wide receiver sandwich of a Mecca, Abuka and Mike Evans. So like, I love DJ Morris. Just want to put that out there.
Dave Kluge
Yeah. And we keep, you know, talking about rankings, so I'm flipping over to see where I have DJ Moore in mind. And for whatever reason, I can't sort to my wide receivers. We'll have to take that up with somebody else. I've got him as my wide receiver. 15. Joey. So, okay, you took DJ Moore today, but if we were in a draft together, you wouldn't be getting DJ Moore as you just saw this weekend when I. When I took him half around before your pick. All right, I want to talk about another guy and man, it is. It's starting to feel like Groundhog Day around here where, you know, I've been making content for a long time and I feel like every offseason I just end up talking about the same players sometimes. But this is one that I genuinely cannot wrap my mind around. Jameson Williams, we know this guy was an absolutely elite prospect. You know how good you have to be to get drafted 12th overall. Coming off an ACL tear. Like they knew that his rookie season was going to be a zero and they still drafted him 12th overall. Then year two, we get that gambling suspension and he never really found his footing in year two. But we saw the flashes in those first two seasons that got us excited. This guy scored a touchdown almost every time he touched the ball. He was taking end arounds for 40 plus yards. He was catching deep bombs. He was taking little screen passes and creating after the catch. And since then, since those inspiring flashes we saw through the first couple of years, 20, 24, he was the wide receiver. 19, 20, 25, he was the wide receiver. 11, 20, 26, he's being drafted as the wide receiver. 22. Joey, I just don't get it. Like this is a 25 year old elite prospect who is trending up. Gave us a middling wide receiver two season two years ago, gave us a back end wide receiver one season last year and now we're drafting him as a back end wide receiver too. And I say I don't get it. I do get it. People are scared of inconsistency and they say, you know, I want that guy that's going to give me 7.5 points every single week. And I could feel good about that. But no, that's not how we're playing fantasy football here. You want these spike weeks and you have other players on your team that yeah, Jameson Williams might give you a zero point week, he might give you a three point week but theoretically you have other guys on your team that can offset that. It's when he has those 25 point weeks, those 35 point weeks that he is single handedly winning you your matchups. To me, this is just a wildly talented young player in an ascending offense who has put together back to back to back years where he has improved. I don't understand why we're drafting this guy below where he finished the last two seasons. It's just like I said, Groundhog's day. It is the off season and I Dave Kluge and telling you to draft Jameson Williams.
Joey Wright
Yeah. What I what I like most about Jameson Williams is from a draft construction like when you're constructing your team on draft day is he's kind of the right ingredient to have like a championship winning team as a wide receiver too. And he should be taking a little bit before that because he can give you wide receiver one numbers. But when you're taking a top 12 wide receiver you kind of know you're going to get the value there. It, it seems might be for my money the most safe position. If you're drafting a top 12 of any position, wide receiver is going to come through for you. So you need big boom or bust. And I mean he is not even that much bust. It's just so much boom. With Jameson Williams the difference in the boom and bust might be like a 10 point week to like you mentioned, a 35 point week. Jameson Williams, like they said he's a perfect ingredient for the that type of team to win. Love the call out here.
Dave Kluge
And, and I think the other thing here too is when you look, you know so much of his production did come over the second half of the season and you can point to two reasons like Dan Campbell took over play calling. Is that why he broke out. Sam Laporta got hurt. Is that why he broke out? So I understand both sides of the coin, but I'm of the belief that good players, once they're out of the bottle, they just stay good. And I think Jameson Williams has been unleashed. So. Yeah, and like he's going in round five right now and you can kind of fit him. Like you said, he's like that secret ingredient that you can put in almost every team structure. Like, I don't know if I want to go like super running back heavy and then have Jameson Williams as my wide receiver, one that I feel a little bit shaky about. I almost prefer him in wide receiver heavy builds where I can start with two or three wide receivers. Get a running back, maybe add a tight end in there and then you're adding Jamison Williams as that wide receiver 3. Or flex play where you know that you've already got solid wide receiver one, wide receiver two, production. And then you've got this kind of wild card that can just completely break your roster every single week. I love it. Can't stop drafting Jameson Williams. Joey, let's talk about tight ends and then we've each got our two flex players that we're going to mention at the end here.
Joey Wright
Yeah, I want to talk about Hunter Henry again. Last year's tight end seven in the league, back to back years now as a top 12 tight end. And Drake May, he's got the obvious report with him second of the team in targets in 2025 and then he led the team in 2024. His targets took a small dip last year with Stefon Diggs and, you know, the Patriots. Since then they brought in Romeo Dobbs and they're most likely going to bring in AJ Brown once June 1st passed. So Henry might move to third on the team and targets. But why I'm not so worried about that and why his ADP is right now tight end 2100 55th overall. He might be free in some drafts, to be honest with you. He thrives in the area that we want to see Titans thrive the most. And that's in the red zone. 6th in the league last year in red zone targets trailing only A Monroe St. Brown, Trey McBride, Devonte Adams, Christian McCaffrey and okay, Jake Ferguson. That's like the throwaway name every time I mention this stat. But Hunter Henry is somebody that Drake May likes to get the ball to, especially when that ball equals the most points you can get on a play. Give me Hunter Henry and every league I can get him in next Year this year.
Dave Kluge
Any fears about Eli Raridan? Joey?
Joey Wright
Okay, so here's the thing about Eli Raridan. Where did he come from? Because I have noticed in Dynasty drafts he is just flying up the draft board. You know, I think if it was a wide receiver, if we were talking wide receivers, I would be a little more worried. But year one tight ends, or historically they just don't happen. Usually takes a year or two and I'm going to mention a year two tight end when we get to our flex players. Little spoiler alert there. So I don't think Eli Raritan is going to come on in year one. I think if he does, it'll be year two. We're talking redraft right now. So I'm not worried necessarily for Hunter Henry.
Dave Kluge
I think what it is, Joey, he is a big, physically menacing type of player and I think people saw those shots from rookie OTAs of him in a Patriots jersey and they just said, oh my God, that's Rob Gronkowski. I'm going to draft him in all my rookie drafts. And I think that's about where it ended. Raritan could be a very good player, but like you said, it takes years for these guys and he's a very. He's a similar player to Hunter Henry. Like to me it is very obvious that they drafted Raritan to be that heir for Hunter Henry's role. But that's not happening this year. So I'm with you. Love Hunter Henry as a good, solid tight end. Two to target late in drafts. Guess what? The theme of this show is apparently Groundhog's Day because I am once again talking about a player that I talked about last year and the year before and the year before and the year before before Kyle Pitts is being drafted as the tight end. 7. Like everything I said about Jameson Williams, copy paste. Kyle Pitts elite player trending up, coming off of a big year and we're drafted in below where he finished last year. Joey, off the top of your head, if you don't know this, don't be. Where do you think Kyle Pitts finished last year? In fantasy.
Joey Wright
In the position?
Dave Kluge
Yes.
Joey Wright
Or points? Oh, in the position. I would say top six.
Dave Kluge
He was the tight end too, behind Trey McBride and like so much of this came late in the season and I talk about this early season bias all the time. Jameson Williams suffered from it. Kyle Pitt suffered from it as well. Didn't get off to the best start but was red hot down the stretch. We saw that three touchdown game. We saw some of that came very similar to Jameson Williams dealing with the Laporta injury. Some of this came during Drake London's injury, but still the production was there. I'm a simple man. I like drafting good football players. Kyle Pitts is a good football player. Fourth overall pick, had the second best rookie season in tight end history. You got to go back to Mike Ditka to find a rookie that had a better season than Kyle Pitts did just a few years ago. As I mentioned, the tight end two in scoring last year. I'm just going to keep drafting this guy has he's improved his touchdown total every single year since he's been in the league. Joey, I don't know if you knew this but year one he score one touchdown. Year two he scored two touchdowns. Year three, three. Year four he scored four. Last year he scored five. If my numbers are correct, Kyle Pitts six touchdown season is incoming here. But really like he is the clear number two in this offense. Darnell Mooney is gone now. They brought him back on a short term deal. It's going to be Drake London and Kyle Pitts, the two guys getting all of the targets in this offense. This could be the best quarterback he's had since his rookie season when he had a Matt Ryan there. And our projections like Kyle Pitts just as much as I do, our consensus projections over here at football guys have Kyle Pitts as the tight end. Three, I've got him ranked as the tight end four right now in drafts he's going off the board as the tight end. 7. Last thing I want to mention here is the coaching change they brought in Kevin Stefanski. If you watched any Browns offense over the last few years, whether it was David Nijoku, Harold Fannin, they funnel targets to the tight end here. I don't know if this is just like fatigue that Kyle Pitts hasn't been able to recapture that rookie season magic, but he has made big plays when called upon. He has been productive in small stretches. Now he's got improved quarterback play. He's got an off or a head coach that wants to get the ball to him. This to me just again another offseason of me drafting a lot of the same players and Kyle Pitts is going to be one of them.
Joey Wright
Yeah, and you know we talked a little bit about a draft that we were in earlier with with D.J. moore, a draft that we were in over the weekend. I said to you and Jeff, I said I'm going tight end next because you guys were at the other end of the draft. Board and Jeff said Laporta and I used the gift from Clueless like as if I was going Kyle Pitts. And that's exactly what I did. Harold Phantom was still on the board and Sam Laporta. But Kyle Pitts is just in my mind, second in targets on the Falcons still for pass catchers. I, I would much rather have Kyle Pitts in any of those other tight ends we just mentioned. You mentioned Stefanski coming in. We saw what he did last year with Harold Fannin. So yeah, wheels up for Kyle Pitts for sure.
Dave Kluge
And I wanted Kyle Pitts in that draft. But as I was on the clock, I saw well, Harold Fannin and Sam Laporta are both still on the board. I'm just going to take another position. I'm going to kick that around and I'm sure Kyle Pitts will come back to me. But playing in a league with sharp drafters like Joey Wright, that didn't happen. And I settled for Harold Fannin with my next pick.
Joey Wright
I'll make you a deal. I'll trade you Kyle Pitts for DJ Wolf.
Dave Kluge
I don't think so. I think we're good on that one. But Joey, let's talk about some flex players here. Running back, wide receiver, tight end. Who's the first? Just, you know, any position that you want to talk about. Another player that you find yourself drafting a lot of.
Joey Wright
Yeah. And I expect this person's ADP is going to go up here in a few weeks. But Devonta Smith with the Eagles going as a wide receiver 23:51st overall, I mentioned AJ Brown. I think he's, you know, everybody pretty much knows he's going to the Patriots after June 1st. And I think once that happens, Devonta Smith is just going to run into a ton of. Of volume. Three of his last four seasons he was a top 20 wide receiver. So he's actually finished better than where he's being drafted right now. 105 targets and five out of the six. Five of his six seasons in the league heading into a season where he's going to be de facto leader for target leader for the Eagles. They can all agree on that. Last time he had the opportunity with this many targets, he finishes the wide receiver 10. I've got him as my wide receiver 18, but I'm kind of the low guy on him at football guys. Football guys has him as the wide receiver 13. That's. I actually checked with you this morning. I was like, people updated their rankings and they have, they have. So. And I checked with Bob Harris as well.
Dave Kluge
I've got him at wide receiver 19, so I'm ahead of consensus. And I also got him in that same draft that we keep talking about. I got Monte Smith in that draft too. Like these are, you know, we're drafting a lot of the same players, Joey. We got a lot of the same takes this off season. It's not going to make for, for fun drafts when we're in rooms together.
Joey Wright
No, it's not. But sniping each other is fun. So I, you know, you got DJ Moore. I was like, I'm gonna take Kyle Pitts and then look at us go.
Dave Kluge
And I think this is another one. Like this is just another good player. Like Devonta Smith was drafted very early, won the Heisman first round pick and there was a lot of excitement after his rookie season and then A.J. brown showed up in the picture and he kind of played this complimentary role. But still 27 years old, he is in the prime of his career and now he steps into a situation where he is going to be the lead target earner there. So yes, this is another easy, easy player to draft this year. I'm going to switch it up a little bit. This is a guy that I haven't talked about a ton. And truthfully, this kind of goes against like my, my, my mantra for fantasy football where I say like I want to draft players that I believe in, guys that I think are good players. Jadarian Price, I have had my doubts this year. I don't think that it was the best pick by the Seahawks. I don't think he was around one talent. I. But at the end of the day, you can't ignore that sort of investment that a team made. And if you look historically, running backs who have been drafted in round one tend to have early career production. Just in recent history. The guys we've seen drafted in round one, Ashton Jinty, Omarion Hampton, Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs, Najee Harris, Travis Achan. Ceh is the big one that jumps out there, but also Josh Jacobs. So yes, Clyde Edwards, Hilaire could be the comp and I have talked about that, that Jadarian Price kind of feels Clyde Edwards, Hilaire Ish where you know, it's a team coming off a Super bowl win feeling themselves drafting a player that I don't think was around one talent. There was a, maybe a bit of a luxury to their roster. But you know, we remember Ceh's career as a whole. He was still the RB22 his rookie season and he was on an RB1 pace prior to that mid season injury as well. So Jadarian Price, the volume is going to be there and right now he's being drafted as a back end RB3. I've been getting this guy at like the 5, 6 turn in drafts, which is just crazy to me. Also I'm a big Zach Charbonnet fan and I think that if Zach Charbonnet comes back healthy, that can spell disaster for Price late in the season where Charbonnet could come in and take a lot of the goal line work. But Charbonnet tore his ACL so late in the playoffs and then had a late injury on top of that. It's possible that Charbonnet doesn't even play this year. Like he might be setting his sights to 2027. So price is a player that you know looking at the prospect I do have some questions about. But this is a good Seattle offense. He is going to be the week one starter and I think it's again one of those like once the genie's out of the bottle, if he shows any signs of life early in the year, he's going to maintain that role for the rest of the season. You're telling me right now I can get this guy in round 6 as my RB3. That to me feels like a pretty good bet to make.
Joey Wright
Yeah, I want to kind of speak to the Charbonnet part of this because from a draft strategy standpoint like you can get Charbonnet in like around 10 or 11 and if he returns this year we've seen the Seattle offense support to running backs, the numbers might go down a little bit. You're talking Jadarian Price though, as an RB33. You don't need him to have RB12 numbers if that's where you're taking them. So I love this ADP for him. Get it earlier than that. Of course he can start your season off fantastic and we all know the running back position as the season grows long in the hair. You know, running backs come out of nowhere. So I, I love this as a value right now. But yeah, if I'm drafting Jadarian Price, I am most likely going to try to get Charbonnet a few rounds later.
Dave Kluge
And I think this is one of those too where like my immediate gut reaction before drafting a bunch of teams was like, I don't want you Torian Price because I thought he'd get steamed up to where most round one rookies end up going in fantasy drafts which like last year we saw Marion Hampton going at the end of Round two. Ceh was going at the end of round one his rookie season. Najee Harris was going at the end of round one his rookie season. I don't know why Jadarian Price is falling to round six in fantasy drafts, but I'm going to be drafting him a lot if that price sticks. Joey Veach got one more flex play. Let's hear it.
Joey Wright
Yeah, I went really deep on this next one. I, I didn't want, you know, because everything I've mentioned so far have been like players you're definitely going to draft in the first, you know, before you really hit the double digit rounds. But I wanted to talk about Terrence Ferguson, tight end for the Rams. You know, we mentioned that tight ends don't normally come on in year one. He was a highly touted prospect, so this is more of like a sleeper type pick. But we've seen this Rams offense lean into 13 personnel. What 13 personnel is out there for folks who don't know is when they use three tight ends instead of three wide receivers on the field. So when they've got three tight ends on the field, they've seen their expected point total almost double of any team in the NFL and they're running that 13 personnel about 16% of the time in the league. And I expect them to kind of continue this way. Terry's Ferguson is just my favorite of the tight ends that the Rams have right now. He finished the season off with two double digit games in a row. Once again, this is somebody you can draft super late, but I think somebody could really have an impact this year.
Dave Kluge
Yeah, I mean, you don't have to sell me on Terrence Ferguson. He was my tight end three last year coming into the NFL draft. Obviously prefer Colson Loveland and prefer Tyler Warren, but Terence Ferguson, what he did at Oregon, he led the NCAA in yards after the catch per reception. And that's what we want to see tight ends do, is create after they catch the ball, get the ball in their hands and let them just rip down the field. And I think Terence Ferguson, you know, they brought back Tyler Higby and Colby Parkinson was there and they have this very deep tight end room. But I think the plans for Terrence Ferguson, it's not even to use him as a traditional tight end. So hold on to this. Maybe it's dumb, but like he was wearing Cooper Cup's old number and if you look at the way that he moves on the field, like Cooper cup wasn't a very traditional wide receiver. He did a lot of the wham blocks and getting inside there and lining up in line. I think Terence Ferguson is more Cooper cup than he is Tyler Higby so I am very excited about his prospects. Still a young guy who is only going to get better. Of course the fear here and I think why he's so suppressed in drafts is because the knee jerk reaction is while the Rams have way too many tight ends they can't possibly get Terence Ferguson involved as well. But I think he can separate himself from the pack and be that lead tight end in this Rams offense. So love that call out Joey and then I will wrap up again. You know I had to stray off a little bit with the Jadarian Price one, but going back to my roots, just a guy that I have been pounding the table for for years. I love me some Jonathan Brooks and anybody who's been watching this show knows that my sweet baby boy and his time is finally here again. Like Jameson Williams was drafted off of an ACL tear and was still drafted early in round two. Was the RB one of his draf class and then immediately retears his ACL once he steps on an NFL field. So we have been waiting for this for a few years now for Jonathan Brooks to get his opportunity. The Panthers let Rico Dowdle walk right now. Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks make up that running back room and Chuba Hubbard's a good running back. I don't want to disparage him in any sort of way, but they have very complimentary skill sets where Chuba Hubbard can do a lot of the early down between the tackle stuff. Jonathan Brooks is a burner that if you give him limited opportunities he can get provide fantasy value just on an efficiency basis. And I also think that he is just the better of the two running backs that if he is healthy, if he looks anything like the player he was at Texas, if he looks like 80% of the player he was at Texas, he is going to get that RB1 role here. So I kind of talked about this earlier when I was talking about Jadarian Price and when I was talking about David Montgomery. You're not drafting him with the expectation that he's an injury away running back and that you're hoping that he can end up in a position where he gets opportunity. I think on his own accord, on his own palette, he can outright win that job. We know Dave Canales wants to run the ball, often to his own dismay. You know, like this team could be down two scores in the second half of the game and they're still Trying to establish the run that works great for a guy like Jonathan Brooks. So, again, just a talented player. I don't want to knock talented players who haven't been able to produce because of things outside of their control. Injuries are one of those things that are outside of their control. So until Jonathan Brooks can step on a field and give me reason not to believe in him, I'm going to continue believing him. Jonathan Brooks, right now, you can draft him as your RB4 or your RB5 very, very late in drafts, and there's just so much upside in that pick.
Joey Wright
Yeah, I think for me, the thing that bodes the most confidence with Jonathan Brooks is that the Panthers are confident in them. They're just letting Chuba Hubbard and him run the backfield now. And that speaks volumes for me that they let Rico Dowdle go and they think Jonathan Brooks can probably take over the RB1, if not RB2 spot. Maybe they ease him in a little bit. But no, I completely agree with you, especially as the RB48. Give me Jonathan Brooks this year for sure.
Dave Kluge
Well, Joey, we. We did it. Was that 12 players we talked about? Yeah, six each. 12 players in less than 40 minutes.
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Dave Kluge
That's pretty good pacing for this episode. We got a lot of information jammed in this one. If you made it to the end of the show, I forgot the YouTube call to action. So now is your chance to let us know that you actually watch this entire show all the way through. Joey, what's a fun word? Try to think of a word that the YouTubers could use in the comments to let us know that they made it this far. Groundhog Day, maybe? Taco. All right. Yeah. Taco league, Taco, Taco Tuesdays, whatever it is. You want to talk about a taco in the. Keep it pg, but you want to talk about a taco in the. In the YouTube comments, let us know that you made it to the end of the show. Give us a thumbs up. If you're listening on Apple Podcasts, please leave us a review. We love that as well. And then, of course, like I said, tomorrow at 8pm Eastern right here. Football guys.com footballguy or YouTube.com footballguysfantasy we're going to be live streaming a draft on NFFC, trying to win $300,000. If you want to sign up for that draft, you can. Footballguys.com NFFC signup. You can get in that draft with me as I'm live streaming. And Joey, I don't know if you've done this before, but like if you are drafting in a draft that a content creator is live streaming, it actually gives you a little bit of an edge because the content creator is live streaming, talking about picks that they want to make. So this could actually be a little bit more beneficial than getting in any other of these football guys online championship drafts.
Joey Wright
And you mentioned if it's your first time, one of the coolest things we have right now is if it is your first time, you get $100 off. So that $350 price tag on that draft, it's 250. What? Do you remember what the promo code is? I do not.
Dave Kluge
I am looking up right now. I just shared it in Basecamp. It is first time 100, all one word. When you go to make that first deposit, type in first time 100 and you will get a free $100 in your account. So, yeah, like you said, the entry for this Contest is typically $350. This is a high stakes contest. We realize that. We know not everybody wants to invest that sort of money in fantasy football, but your first entry, if you've never played before, you're getting a $250 entry into a contest with a $300,000 grand prize and you get a chance to draft against me while I'm giving away some of my edges on a live stream. So. Footballguys.com NFFC signup Joey, any final takeaways here? Any, any words of wisdom for the audience before we log off?
Joey Wright
No words of wisdom. Draft responsibly. But take some of these players we mentioned today because, I mean, their values right now, you know, we're using NFFC adp, which is like where people are putting their money on the adp. And if you can catch these edges now, it might be the best time to draft. So draft smart. Draft these players. We told today and you know, we
Dave Kluge
were doing a show not too long ago where we were drafting and we were saying, like, why is Trey McBride going ahead of Brock Bowers? That's just completely backwards. That ADP has since flipped. So, you know, sometimes we know what we're talking about here, Joey, like getting in these early drafts, you actually can get some edges, you know, so, so, so get in there now because my guess is all the players that we talked about today as we get closer and closer to kickoff are just going to rise in value. So get them now while you can at these depreciated costs and come back next week when Joey Wright and I will be talking more about fantasy football and how to help you win your league. I'll also be back this Wednesday with Jeff Bell and I'll be back on Friday with Jeff Blalock. So staying busy here over on The Football Guys YouTube channel. I want to thank y' all so much for taking the time to hang out. We will see you soon.
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Episode: Players We Can't Stop Drafting In Fantasy Football
Date: May 11, 2026
Host: Dave Kluge
Guest: Joey Wright
In this episode, Dave Kluge and Joey Wright dive deep into their current fantasy football draft habits, highlighting the players they consistently target across multiple formats using the sharp NFFC ADP as their guide. The episode covers quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and some flex picks—focusing on league-winning value and exploiting inefficiencies before ADP climbs as draft season peaks. Listeners will find actionable advice supported both by advanced stats and real-world reasoning, with both analysts blending film and analytics. The recurring theme: don’t be afraid to trust proven talent and seize current value before the market corrects.
On Mahomes sliding in drafts:
“I got him as the QB17 off the board in a draft last night. It's just unbelievable that people are just leaving this guy for dead in drafts.” (Dave, 04:14)
On the RB cliff:
“David Montgomery is kind of the last running back I really trust to be my RB1. I have really changed my tune on him.” (Joey, 14:58)
On chasing spike weeks:
“That’s not how we’re playing fantasy football here. You want these spike weeks… he is singlehandedly winning you your matchups.” (Dave on Jameson Williams, 22:41)
Groundhog Day running joke:
“It’s starting to feel like Groundhog Day around here… every offseason I just end up talking about the same players sometimes.” (Dave on Jameson Williams, 21:19)
Rapid Fire Self-Awareness:
“Draft responsibly. But take some of these players we mentioned today because, I mean, their values right now… might be the best time to draft.” (Joey, 44:19)
The show is direct, friendly, and conversational—Dave and Joey mix detailed analysis with relatable language, occasional self-deprecating jokes, and accessible metaphors (“draft cliff,” “Groundhog Day”). The recommendations feel actionable and urgent, with frequent references to their ongoing draft experiences and the importance of exploiting ADP lag before it corrects.
Draft responsibly but aggressively target the players discussed here; according to Dave and Joey, their present ADPs are among the best ways to gain an edge before fantasy draft season gets into full swing.
[End of content summary. Ads and sponsor segments omitted.]