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Thank you for tuning in to another episode of the Launch Pad. I'm your host, Dave Kluge, and today I am joined by Tom Kessenick and Sigmund Bloom. And what we're going to do is a little twofer episode here. I'm going to start off talking with Tom, who is one of the figureheads over at nffc. We're going to talk about their platform as a whole, as well as the intricacies of the postseason hold' em contest that Sig and I are going to be entering. This is a great contest that you can join with $125,000 up top. If you're looking for something a little bit lower stakes, they also have a $50 entry with $50,000 up top. This is a great contest that'll help keep you engaged throughout the entire postseason with multipliers every single round and abilities to add players to your team. We will talk through all of the rules and there is a link in the podcast description with more information on this contest as well. So without any further ado, let's jump in. Talking with Tom and Sig about the NFFC postseason holding contest. Tom Kesenick, how are you doing today?
B
Doing great, Dave. Thanks for being here.
A
Yeah, of course. It's a fun time of year. I think a lot of people right now get through week 18 and say, well, the fantasy football season's over. But no, you over at NFFC have this fun contest that we are pushing right now. I played for my first time last year, learned some things, trying it again this year. But it is a really fun postseason hold' em contest. But before we talk about that, I want to talk about just your seat over at nffc. You've been there for a while now. Nffc, they are a partner with football guys. We've been working with you guys for the last couple of years. We did a lot of these live streams throughout the preseason, drafted in the $350 rotor wire contest. But I wanted to ask you, Tom, what is one of the biggest strategic mistakes that you see high stakes players making every year? And for the listeners, these are all unprompted questions. So you're really getting off the cuff here from Tom.
B
Well, I think, you know, the biggest thing I think people make more often than not is following the I think ADP is vital. First of all, it's vital. You need to know adp, but don't become glued to it. Understand that ADP is something you need to know. You need to understand where players are going. But when you get into a high stakes draft, also understand that these players are going to go and get their players, okay? And what I mean by that is they know who they want. So if a player has an ADP of let's say mid second round or late second round, let's say it's late second round, okay? You cannot bank on that player being there automatically late second round. Because if a guy's got a pick, let's say at the 1, 2 turn and he really values that player whose ADP is late second round, he's going to jump that guy at the 1, 2 turn. So if you're picking late second round and you're sitting there going, okay, that guy consistently is ADP is late second round. I'm sitting there staring at that adp. But you're in a draft with a high stake player and he wants that guy in a high stakes draft, he's going to jump that guy because that's his guy. So don't understand what ADP is. Learn the adp, but don't become glued to the adp. Okay? Go and get your guys. Always go and get your guys. Don't be afraid. I'm not saying jump a guy three, four rounds earlier. Don't become, don't, don't be crazy about what you do, but go and get your guys. Don't be afraid to go and get your guys. Don't worry about people saying, oh, you were crazy to go get a guy around or too early. Go and get your guys. That's what the high stakes players do and they win with that strategy. They're not afraid to take a guy a round or two earlier. They're not going to go get a guy four or five rounds earlier, but they'll, they will do it one or two rounds earlier.
A
And I'm so glad you said that. So I did eight high stakes drafts this year and the two that I had that were the best performing teams were one that I did with Matt Waldman. And for anybody who knows anything about Matt Waldman, I've actually got a show with him coming out later this week that I recommend checking out. He could not care less about adv. He's gonna go out and get his guys. And I remember as we were doing this draft, him saying like, I want Kyle Menung guy in round 10 and me saying, it seems kind of early but we did it and it ended up working out for us. And that team ended up getting advancing into the playoffs had itself, you know, just outside of the money But a strong year. Then the other team that I had that did really well was the team that I drafted live in Vegas, which I had drafted all of these teams, you know, online throughout the preseason. And I finally said, this is the team that I am just going to get. My guys couldn't care less about adp. I'm reaching for the guys that I want and that team finished just outside the money time. I'm sure you're sick of hearing about bad beats, but had I just gotten like five points from Blake Corum on Monday night in week 17, I'd have finished in the money. Blake Corum getting hurt knocked me out. So, you know, just, just, just a few points kept me out. But yeah, you know, those were the two best teams that I had and the teams that I couldn't care less about. When ADP would you say that might be kind of a tell for people who are drafting in some of these high stakes leagues? The difference between an experience and a non experienced player is just how much they're willing to adhere to adp. Or do you think there are any other tells that can help you, you know, understand whether somebody's done this before or not?
B
Yeah, yeah, I think that that's a big one for sure. But also I think, you know, the other thing I want to say is, you know, don't worry about what other people at your table or on if you're drafting online, don't worry about what they're doing. Now. You want to pay attention to what they're doing because that can help you draft your team. You know, for example, if they're loading up on running backs, that can help you understand how to draft your team. Right? You want to pay attention to what they're doing, but don't obsess on what they're doing. Draft your team. Focus on your team. I see a lot of people, they get into draft especially live, right? They know who they're drafting against and they're like, oh my God, I'm drafting against so and so and they, they've won X amount of dollars. Oh, I got no chance. Well, you've lost already. Before you sat down at the table, you've lost your draft. So don't worry about who you're drafting against. Draft your team. That's your number one focus. I would say to any quote unquote novice player, I don't like that term, so and so I think you need to go in and you need to be the best player you can be. But draft your team, focus on your team, don't worry about who you're drafting against. Draft your team.
A
So there's been such a rise in recent years with these advanced projections and consensus rankings and draft tools and all this stuff. Have you noticed that that has changed how these high stakes drafts are drafte or do you think that this, I mean, I have my opinion here. I don't think that these high stakes drafts really adhere to the advanced projections and tools of that nature. It does seem like people when they hit these drafts, you talk about going out and getting your guys and I noticed that so much more in these high stakes drafts than I do in others. Do you think that over time we'll start to see those bleed more into the drafting in these high stakes leagues and flatten that edge a little bit, or do you think this is just how high stakes drafters prefer to draft?
B
I think every, everyone looks for every tool they can get, right? Because everybody wants whatever advantage they can get their hands on because it's valuable. Especially when you're talking about high stakes and the money that you can win. But even it doesn't matter if you're talking about the prime time that's got a $250,000 grand prize or the Rotowire Online Championship with 250, it doesn't matter. It can be anything. You know, you, you want whatever advantage you can get your hands on. But I also think at the end of the day, you know, for me, you know, I covered the NFL for 10 years, so I like to think I know a thing or two about how the NFL games are going to unfold. So I like to, I ultimately believe that what you see on the field tells you the most about how players play and how games unfold. I understand we all like the analytical tools and those are very important and whatever tools you can get. But at the end of the day, I do think there is something to be said for watching how the games unfold and taking that information and kind of filing it away and using that to prepare yourselves for each game each week and each team and each player and each matchup. That's what I use and I think a lot of high stakes players I know, I talk to them in New York each week, each year, in Vegas each year. And they do a lot of that as well. A lot of self analysis as they prepare and watch each game and, and in their preparations in draft prep and in, in season prep as well.
A
So now zooming in a little bit on this postseason hold' em contest, this is what Sigmund Bloom And I, we're gonna be drafting our teams right after you and I talk and kind of talking through our strategy and how we do this. Are there any trends that you have noticed when you're looking at the winners over the year? Or does. Are there more than one ways to skin a cat, I guess you can say, or is there like a trend that you've noticed from these winners?
B
There's definitely more than one way to skin the cat. Especially. I think this year is going to be really, really crazy because there's no dominant team in either conference. So I think this year maybe more so than any year we've seen in recent years, it's going to be wide, wide open because there is that not. There's not that one dominant team overall and there's not that one team, dominant, dominant team in either conference. So you could see anybody rise up. Now, we have seen wild card teams emerge in the past, right, to win a Super bowl. It might happen this year, who knows? But I think that's going to add to the diversity of it. Now what I like about our contest is it adds a couple of interesting flavors to it. It has a multiplier format, which means that beginning in round two, the players that survive and that you've had stashed add two times their point total. So the bye week players and the players that survive week one have two points, their total point scoring. So if you've got Smith and Jigba, for example, beginning in week two, he will have two times the point scoring round, three, three times, and then four times and so forth. So that adds one flavor. But there's also a DFS element to it. You want to have a little diversity to your lineup. You go back years past. For example, guys like James White in New England, years past, they emerged as super bowl heroes and they were championship players. Damian Williams, the year he should have won the super bowl mvp, was a big contributor. So we could see something like that emerge. Of course, you know, there is chalk plays. Excuse me, Cooper cup, the year he was super bowl mvp, you wanted to have Cooper Kupp because he was just money in the bank week in and week out. So you can play the chalk and still cash in. So there, there are multiple ways to skin the cat. But I do think this year, because there is just that lack of a dominant team, I think you're going to see a lot of different lineups that are going to kind of go in and really set the tone. And it's going to be very interesting to see who plays and here's the one thing I do want to mention, Dave. In the first round you have to start 12 players from the 14 teams that which means you're fading two teams. So which two teams do you want to fade? That's going to be very interesting because I do think there's going to be a lot of people in our contest who may be fading the number two seeded team in the NFC which years before would be unheard of. But I think because that's a very weak looking number two seeded team and I'm not just saying that because I'm a Packer fan, I don't think the packers are very good, but I think that Chicago team is pretty weak and I think people could be fading that number two seeded Bears team in our contest this year.
A
So that was going to lead me to my next question. I think that's probably one of the most important things to do is like you said, you have to find two teams that you are just fading saying I don't expect these teams to go forward. And I think when you look at the Carolina Panthers, you know, ten and a half point underdogs right now, I think that is the chalky fade. Now of course things could happen and they could end up getting the win. But, but the other team, and that's the one that I kept waffling back and forth on, I chose the Steelers as the other team that I am going to be fading here. And I think that's probably going to be a popular opinion. But this is such a weird year where it seems like some of the best teams are playing out of the wild card spots. So I start any postseason contest by mapping out my projected playoff bracket and I have five of the six winners in wild card weekend are going to be the lower seeded team. So how important is it? Because you know you do lose out on the multipliers if you end up missing that team and then it can just snowball, especially if the team that you faded early makes it to the Super Bowl. So would you say that's probably one of the most important aspects of this contest is fading those two correct teams in round one?
B
I think it's the most important thing. I think you have to start, you have to start two places. First of all, you want to start with who do you think is going to get the Super Bowl. That's obvious, right? Because that's the four times points those first two players. You want to pick the two super bowl players teams that you think are going to get there. Ideally it's a Quarterback, but doesn't have to be. Like I said before, Cooper cup four years ago was money in the bank. So if you had Cooper cup at four times the year the Rams won it, that was huge. But ideally you would like to have the super bowl quarterback because that's going to be a lot of points at four times. So that's where you want to start. But I also think the number two thing is you want to hit those two teams that are going to be faded and faded correctly. You're right. I think the Steelers are going to be chalk in the afc. But that NFC team, who's the one? You're right, the Panthers. Most people think they're going to lose. They're the overwhelming underdog. But you also got Ted McMillan there who could, even in a losing game could put up a lot of week one points. And you're going to lose. You don't want to lose six players in round one. You, you want to lose four. It's okay to lose Ted McMillan if he puts up a big, big game in a losing effort, which he could. But if you do fade, let's say the Bears lose, right? Maybe you get, you slide Christian Watson through or Jacobs, whoever is that big Packer, you slide him in there for 12 games at two times the points in week two, that could help you if it's a little DFS action. Like I said, you get a low own Christian Watson for two games and he pops off a couple of games that could help you out. You just slide them out there. But again, the key is to only lose four players in week one, not six.
A
And our Adam Harstadt, he has this mantra that he likes to say all the time, that even when you're wrong, you can set yourself up to be right. And I think that you can do this in this contest. You talk about it, you know, I don't think the Bears are going to win. I'm putting my money on Green Bay, but that's also, you know, it's the spread is one and a half points. Vegas is projecting it to be a close game. I could see that game going either way. So I drafted a Bear and a Packer on my team. So that way, regardless of what happens, I'm right. I'm getting a two time multiplier on either Josh Jacobs or Colson Loveland in round two. And I think that's one of the fun things about this is you don't need to be right. You can set yourself up to be right even if you are technically wrong. So we can talk about this contest till we're blue in the face. There are endless strategy here. But I want to talk about some of the other contests that you'll be running this offseason once this season comes to an end. What are some of the other contests that you guys will have for the 2026 season that people should be excited about?
B
Well, for us, when this is over, we're actually, we're going to be turning our football attention to 2026. So we'll be launching football completely. We'll have all our contests open. We'll have best ball drafts going on. So if you want to get into 2026 football, you can start drafting best ball right away. That'll be open. All our live event drafts will be available. So if you want to sign up for Las Vegas for New York online, you can do that. All that will be available. But again, you can start drafting best ball. If you want to get into early best ball drafts, you want to get in to anything available, you'll be able to do that right away. So you don't have to worry about or wait for 2026 draft, the NFL draft, I should say you can start drafting with us right away even after the super bowl is over. So get in and start drafting. So it'll be a lot of fun. We'll have some discounts available as well, some promos. So we'll have a lot of fun drafting in 2026 even after the super bowl is over.
A
So my biggest regret when it comes to high stakes is not starting earlier. I did my first high stakes leagues on NFFC last year and I enjoyed it. I just did one league, didn't cash, but I had fun learning the platform, all that. This year I did eight. Now I'm able to take my winnings and roll those over into 2026 and draft even more teams. But I think it is scary to a lot of people, you know, just kind of dipping your toes into that arena where you think that you're going to be playing against these Sharks and there's big money up front. But what advice would somebody. This is the last question I got for you, Tom. What advice would you have for somebody who has never played high stakes before that is maybe interested but might have cold feet about doing it?
B
Well, I will say, you know, we, we don't have high entry fees, you know, all, all through the board. We've got $25 drafts that you can get into. So if you are leery about, you know, getting into something that's A bigger high stakes. You know, when we say high stakes, that doesn't just mean, you know, thousand dollars entries are on up. If you want to get into something at a lower entry fee that you feel more comfortable about, we got $25 drafts, we got $50 drafts, we got $100 drafts you can get into. We've got, you know, private. We call them standalone leagues where you get in for, like, $150. You play against just 12 people, 11 other people. Right. Those are like regular, standalone, normal fantasy football leagues that everybody's accustomed to. So that would be a great way to kind of get yourself your. Like you say, dive in, get your toes wet, get comfortable with what we offer. And then if you like that, you want to play in something that's a little bigger and, you know, with more at stake, you can do that down the road. But again, if you want to just get into a regular best ball draft, we got $25 leagues you can get into, and that'll get you ready and more familiar with what we do. And maybe you like it and want to play something bigger than you can do that down the road as well.
A
And I think this contest is a great way to just learn the platform, get some funds in there, figure out how to play a little bit. And you've got the mini hold' em as well, which is just a $50 entry that you can get in. And you are also doing discounts if you get a three pack, six pack, or a nine pack. You're saving money there. So we will have the links to all of this in the podcast description. Hope to see you over in those NFFC streets playing the postseason hold' em contests and hopefully some regular season 20, 26 contests as well. But, Tom, want to thank you so much for taking the time today. I' to hop over with Sig now. We are going to build our teams for this postseason contest and hopefully take home the big $125,000 prize. Up top. Thank you so much for the time today, Tom. I'll see you around.
B
Appreciate it, Dave. Say hi to Sig for me.
A
Will do. Sig, you and I both did this contest last year. It is a fun contest, especially for the sickos like us that are looking for something a little bit different than your standard fantasy football. I mean, we're mapping out our playoff bracket here. We're trying to pick who we think is going to score the most in each points. You get these fun multipliers. You get to build exit ramps for positions where you might be wrong. This, you know, this is only my second year doing it. I don't know how long you've been doing this one, Sig, but it has quickly become one of my favorite contests to play.
C
Yeah, I think any playoff fantasy football is really fun because you have to combine your prognostications about players and teams. And this year more than ever, I think that, you know, Dave, in contests like this, we could see as you go through the exercise how entries are going to converge and there's just going to be a few variations. But this season, because we look at the best quarterbacks on each side of the bracket, for instance, if you just like to go really simplistic and say, I'm just going to make sure I'm taking the best quarterbacks because I want a four times multiplier in the super bowl if possible. For a quarterback that's going to lead an offense, you would pick the fifth and sixth seeded teams. And most years that's just not rational. You know, like there's no way you would say it's chalk. There is no chalk this year. That's what makes it fun.
A
Yeah, and we talked about that like at the midway point of this season in base camp where we talk internally. And I remember saying like this season has just flipped on its head. Like if you looked at the teams that were in and out of the playoff race, none of it would have made sense to us in the preseason. And now, even when we're looking at the playoff Sig, I haven't looked at your bracket yet and kind of how you predict this to go. But I have the lower seed winning in five of my six wild card matchups this weekend. You know, the seating is helpful and they get that because of the record. But what I'm looking at it right now, I mean, I think that there are some teams that got some high seating that maybe shouldn't have. So I'm predicting a lot of, I don't even know if they're considered upsets by Vegas standards, but upsets by at least how the playoff seating worked out. So let's go ahead and start with your lineup here. Before we do it though, I'm going to jump in a little bit and just kind of explain what this contest is. First of all, there's two contests and what we're doing right now is our postseason hold' em contest. It is a $200 entry. There are a max 1700 teams that are playing $125,000 grand prize and savings if you buy a three pack, six pack or nine pack. So you're allowed as many entries as you want in this contest, and you actually get some savings on your entry if you get a little bit more. But what you have to do here is you just pick any players. There's no draft. There's no salary cap. You can build a team however you want. But the really important part here are the multipliers. So in round one, any players that you have on your team, you're just getting exactly what they score. Now, if you get that player that WINS in round one carries over to round two, you get a 2x multiplier in the next round, a 3x multiplier in the next round, and then those players in the super bowl, you get 4x multipliers if you're able to hold them the whole way through. So this is something that keeps you engaged throughout the entire postseason because you're not just drafting your team and then hoping for the best. After every single round, you get to select more players, and you're not getting those big multipliers because you can only get up to a 3x. But that's why when you start looking at it like, if you're listening right now, your wheel should be spinning because there are just endless opportunities here. And theoretically, there can be multiple teams with the same players in the super bowl, but the multipliers make it almost impossible for two teams to have the same finish. So, Sig, like I said, you've been doing this for a little while. Have you kind of found a strategy that works? Is there one thing that you kind of start with when you're building out these teams?
C
Yeah, I think that there's two ends that you can start at. One end is the classic David Dodds. Eliminate the suck. Because there's going to be. There's two teams that are not going to be in your lineup, your initial lineup. So we can. You can talk through that, or you can go the other end, which I think is to just do your super bowl bracket first. Don't bother with your lineup, and then let that guide how you slot players into your lineup. With the object being, and let's be fair, what's cool about this contest is each week you're going to reset your lineup. So you're going to eliminate players that were eliminated, their teams were eliminated. You're going to replace them with players that are not in your lineup yet from teams that are still alive, and you're going to have meaningful decisions every week to try to eke it out. You know, I mean, even if you're in the super bowl week, you, you're trailing. What's fun about this is that you can throw some Hail Marys, you can try to come up with complexity and uniqueness to your entry as you progress through the playoffs and understand if you need to go for more low probability outcomes that might not be on very many entries or just stay the course. So why not then, Dave, reduce it down to the simplest possible task, which is you want to have the two highest scores in the super bowl, one for each team at a four times multiplier. Right. And you can start from the top. So you can start from the top and you can start from the bottom. And there is a little bit of a complicating factor. If one of your teams is the Rams, we can get into that too when we get into some VBD and stuff like that. But you know, you can build from the ground up, you can build from the top down. But I do think no matter what, you're going to come to some forks in the road where you really have to make a stand. You can't just shrug your shoulders and play both sides. I think anybody who does playoff fantasy football knows this. The cardinal sin in playoff fantasy football is trying to hedge and play both sides of things. And all that does is lower the ceiling of your choices, whether it's classic playoff fantasy football or a contest like this. So take a stand either way.
A
That's what we're here to do right now. You talk about eliminating the suck and I like that because that just kind of happened on my own here because I was looking at these and like there's some games that I really struggle to get a read on. You know, our, our fandom of course, bleeds into our. Yes, a little bit. Like I have the packers overtaking the Bears, but Vegas has the Bears as favorites in this matchup. So you can kind of set yourself up. I gave myself a Bears player and a Packers player saying like, I don't know which way this game is going to go. So I've got an out in either way. You know, I've got Colson Loveland in my lineup and I've also got Josh Jacobs in lineup. Whoever wins that game, I'm set going into round two and I can add somebody else onto that team. I want to know if we ended up with the two teams that we are essentially fading in round one because you know there's 14 teams to choose from and you got a 12 team lineup. So I ended up Sig and I'm sorry to do this as a Steelers fan, I ended up with no Steelers players and I ended up with no Panthers players. And I see Jeff Bold already in the chat here saying eliminate the Panthers, obviously. I feel like that kind of feels like the Chalky team to fade in round one. But I'm curious who you ended up not drafting players from in your team.
C
Yeah, let's get the Panthers out of the way because they're a 10 point underdog and they did beat the rams like on November 30th. It wasn't that long ago. And you never say never any given Sunday or Saturday or Thursday or whatever day the NFL is playing on now. So, hey, I think that's, that's a layup. And I don't get me wrong, I mean a way to introduce some diversity. And you do have like one of the other things about a contest like this is within each team you do like a fantasy draft, right. And Treadro McMillan is just so clearly the top fantasy asset. And if they do advance, it will probably be on a tarot McMillan big game. But so many things had to break right for them to win that game. So let's take the Panthers out. And then, you know, I started out with the Steelers and I'm an erotic Steelers fan, so I'm skewed. I started it out and we're going to, I'm going to turn it back on you. Right. Because I started out as the Steelers is the team that was out. But as I stepped through my lineup, the lowest confidence teams to make the super bowl other than the two that you eliminate with the suck, are going to be the teams you probably slot into, like kicker, defense.
A
Right.
C
So I'm down to my kicker. Spoiler alert. We're getting later on in the team building process if this will make smoke come out of your ears, everybody. But I was down to like the three lowest confidence teams I had were the Chargers, the Packers and the Bears. And like you, I see the Packers Bears game as more of a coin flip game. But then when I had, I think a wide receiver, a kicker and a defense left, there's just, I like Christian Watson more than any Bears wide receiver. And I think that at that point I was looking at defense and I'm thinking, well, if the Steelers do beat the Texans, it will be on their defense, not their offense. So even though the Steelers are the team that I have the lowest confidence in to win this coming weekend, I think roughly whether it's the Steelers, the Packers or the Bears or the Panthers, I would say I mean, none of these teams are going to make the Super Bowl. I mean, let's just go. I just don't. I mean, sorry. I mean I just think that, you know, I was looking back through the Bears season, Dave and I was like, are we even sure this team is good? I mean, are we really? Are we? Are we? So I put the Steelers defense in making the Bears a home team might because and partially because they have a two back backfield like you said Colston Loveland would be the top pass catching choice. But that even feels kind of dicey, you know, so there was just no clear option. I think if I was going to do a configuration where I was waiting the Bears a little more, it probably would be like Kyro Santos, but then I would end up with the packers or the Chargers defense which feels like a wasted slot.
A
So that's also home field advantage. Like do you really want a kicker in January playing in Chicago like that? You don't feel good about that one either. So I think you kind of made the right choice here. I think you're right. It's the Panthers, the Steelers, the Bears, Chargers, packers are all teams we don't have a ton of confidence in. It's funny as you're talking through this, I'm wondering now how similar our teams are going to be because I think we probably pretty similar approach to this. Yeah.
C
And well and I think that's what's neat about this though. And I think folks that play DFS understand this where part of this and David Dodds, you know where he's, he's always close to our minds and our hearts. The co founder of football guys and you know, he was one of the first ones to really understand that in dfs having somewhat accurate projections of what everyone else is going to do is important. And I think by stepping through this process we can absolutely have a chance to understand that or take our best guess at that and then, and then self apply it and understand exactly where the pivot points. I think there's a, there's a really big one in the AFC that is going to separate rosters and that's how you know what you're actually when you put this entry in with 12 players and you're going to switch it through really you're taking a stand on one or two things to happen in the playoffs and understanding which ones you're backing. And hopefully everybody has their own stance why they're backing it.
A
Let's start talking through this a little bit then. I want to hear some of the Players like when you started doing this contest, you know, I assume the first thing you did was kind of map out your playoff bracket. But who are the first two players that you're like, I need to get these guys on my team.
C
Yeah, I mean it's Smith and Jigba and Puka Nukua. I mean I just think that, and I think that these are free, I call them free squares in the article I'm writing up for football guys. Because the idea here is like I said, you're kind of doing a draft within each team and I think for Seattle we don't even have to really talk about it. You know, it's Smith and Jigba.
A
There's one thing to talk about and that's just that you're taking zero in round one and you're willfully taking that zero knowing that they are on by. But still, you know, this is a guy who almost 1800 yards this year. You know he's going to be one of the top scoring guys. But even without playing in week one, you're immediately getting that 2x multiplier when he does step on the field in round two.
C
Exactly. And he's also like this. The wide receivers, most of the wide receivers in the top 10 didn't make the playoffs. Actually the next highest ranked in ppr. This is a PPR contest. The next highest ranked wide receiver after Smith and Jigba Naku is actually Devonte Adams. Like, but it's a drop off of like five points per game from Smith and Jigba and it is six points per passing touchdown. And that, and that brings in Matthew Stafford and certainly it's not a stretch to think the Rams can win the super bowl with Matt. It's his MVP year. Right. With Matthew Stafford throwing like 14 or 15 touchdowns, three or four in the super bowl without Puka Nakua catching one. And in the entry that had Matthew Stafford instead of Puka Nakua wins. And that's certainly something you have to think through. But the drop off from Puka Nakua to the next wide receiver is so steep compared to the drop off from Matthew Stafford. And I think that it's still, unless Nukua gets hurt in the playoffs, which is possible, it's more likely that Nakua is, even though he doesn't give you the same sheer amount of points that Stafford will give you, he will give you enough of an advantage over the next option as long as you get that quarterback. Right.
A
Right.
C
So and this is where it comes, this is it who if you have Nakua over Stafford, then you're one of your quarterbacks. Better be the quarterback for the AFC in the Super Bowl. And let's just say it's not going to be Bonix. A quarterback that had four very productive games in a row to, to make it. So the team that had Nakua, the team that had Stafford, their wide receiver is going to be a farther drop off from Nakua than, than Stafford to your quarterback. And that's the question, right? I mean I think that we can. I think the biggest question when you make your lineup is who are you picking in the AFC to go to the Super Bowl?
A
So I'm curious who you have because right now we're two for two. You know, Smith, Najigba and JSN or I'm sorry Jason and Puka. Those were like the two first guys that I picked as well. So who's your quarterback then out of the afc?
C
I stared and stared and stared at the crystal ball. Dave. Yes, I've got it as Trevor Lawrence. Wow. And look, look. I think it is reasonable to have this as Trevor Lawrence, as Josh Allen or as Drake May. I think all three are reasonable positions and we can get into a one picking the Texans, which is also reasonable. And we'll talk about Nico Collins and C.J. stroud or maybe even the Houston defense. But I, I want it to be the Bills. I want this to be Josh Allen's year. It should be Josh Allen's year with no Joe Burrow and with no Patrick Mahomes. The problem is that this is a very flawed Bills team. And I mean don't get me wrong, Josh Allen pulls a rabbit out of a hat. That's what he does. Right? But is that a plan? Is that really a plan going into the playoffs? You know, because they, they do have James Cook, but they have no downfield passing game. Their defense can just hemorrhage yards and points to make them put Josh Allen in that position. Josh Allen also is probably hurt. He had to have X rays on his foot in two consec after two consecutive games. And this just, it's sad because this Bills team isn't as good as the teams that lost with Josh Allen playing out of his mind. And that's the other part. Is Josh Allen completely out of his mind and for fantasy still put up ridiculous numbers even losing in the AFC championship game. But we saw Trevor Lawrence do the same thing. This team has not lost since week 10 to Davis Mills and that 19 point collapse against the Texans. And they only played one playoff team in the second half of the season. But it was Denver, at Denver and they thumped them, they humbled them. That's your number one seed. So in the end, and then with Drake, maybe it's just so hard for quarterbacks in their first postseason to go all the way to the Super Bowl.
A
Right.
C
And I know some of this is like arbitrary, you know, but you have to, you have to figure out something to split them hairs.
A
So I think that's the big inflection point here because I'm looking at that and I had the same sort of mindset as you. Like, I want these two NFC wide receivers, but then in order to do that, I almost have to bet on who I think is going to go to the super bowl in the afc. And I did go with Josh Allen here. And like you said, the, the, the rabbit out of a hat, he just seemingly does it time after time. So that's why I made the bet here. But I shared it with Jeff Bell, you know, our resident Bills fan here on staff, and he said, I love you, Dave, but I don't think that's going to happen. But thank you for making my day with that prediction. There is a lot that can go wrong, but to me this just feels like the year of destiny for Josh Allen. You know, like you said, no Mahomes, no Burrow, no Lamar Jackson. This is the clearest path he has ever had there. Now Trevor Lawrence has been on fire and this Jacksonville team looks good, but I think my concerns are just Trevor Lawrence, a young quarterback, doesn't really have the playoff acumen, a first year head coach and Liam Cohen. It can happen, but I just have some concerns there. But this is the, the big difference in our team builds here is, you know, we not only the super bowl winner, but like we, you know, we're just predict, predicting complete opposite way that this game goes in round one with Buffalo and Jacksonville playing each other. So after you got Trevor Lawrence in there, I'm curious who your other quarterback was. I assume, and maybe I'm making a wrong assumption here, but I assume that you're going with a team out of the nfc, out of the NFC that isn't Pukinakua or Jackson, Smith, Najigba or. The other option that you can do here if you're feeling frisky, is you can double down on the AFC bet, go with two AFC quarterbacks, hope that one gets eliminated, and then you can fill in that spot next week with an NFC quarterback. Yeah.
C
And I think that again, I'm trying to build in A ceiling. So I, I, I mean, I think that the one wrong move is going Allen and Lawrence. I mean, I just, I think that you're assuring that one of those guys is a 1x and then whatever quarter you put in is starting at 1x, you know, because other teams are at least going to get a quarterback for a 2x or maybe even a 3x and you're, you're ensuring that you can't have two 2x quarterbacks in the second round. You know, now if you do have the two quarterbacks in the AFC championship game, right, and you know, I guess it would be. See, the thing is, even if you picked Allen and May, they could face each other in the second round, right? So, so it's just, I mean, I think that you're, you, you are relying on other people making mistakes if you're doing that. So I think by process of elimination, it's really easy to get to Jalen Hurts as your second quarterback. Although again, Saquon Barkley could have, I mean, it is, you know, I can talk myself into coming up with an entirely alternate while we're doing this on the fly lineup, because Saquon Barkley is going to face a Eagles running game, is going to face the 49ers without, probably without Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune, and already Fred Warner was out. And you just saw Seattle's running game, which was morose for most of the season, really came alive in a winner take all one seed game against San Francisco. And even though Kevin Petullo can't really call plays well, it seems like just the strength of the Eagles and the weakness of the 49ers defense. But the thing is, Jalen Hurts could score three touchdowns on the ground. Saquon Barkley could score three touchdowns on the ground. So we kind of shrug our shoulders there. But Jalen Hurts also. If you start to look ahead and you say, well, where are we headed? We're headed, I think, to an Eagles Rams. I mean, we had an incredible game in the snow last year in the playoffs. I think we're headed, we're on a collision course for the Eagles and Rams to play either in the second round if the packers beat the Bears, or in the third round if the Bears win. Now, of course, the Bears beat the Eagles. So we have to say, I mean, at that point, if the Bears can sneak past the packers, they should feel confident if they face the Eagles in the next round. We could talk about the. See, that's the thing. As soon as you start doing this exercise Dave and this and some of this is like to illustrate how the process should be for you all is you just get lost in the weeds of predicting these matchups and projecting different permutations of the bracket because you still come down to like a yes or no decision. But it's. This is how you get there. And we did see Jalen Hurts just come alive as a passer against the Rams to make up a 26. 7 deficit. The Rams secondary is absolutely suspect. You know, Lane Johnson's going to be back. So Jalen Hurts gives you that extra added dimension. As long as they can beat San Francisco this weekend to have the passing numbers against the Rams or have the passing numbers against the Bears like we saw Brock Purdy do. And maybe that's how they get it out of the game script where they get run over like they did in that first game. So I mean, I, I couldn't find a path to any other quarterback as my quarterback two than Hertz. But I know that Barkley could be the player on the winning roster.
A
Now that's exactly where I ended up to. So right now we are three for four when it comes to same players. We have the difference on the AFC quarterback. But I also went with Jalen Hurts. Now, I think a lot of what you said, though you could also make a similar argument for Brock Purdy if you wanted to go that route, that Brock Purdy was just on an absolute tear. Weeks 15, 16 and 17, we've seen the upside in this offense and if you think the 49ers can make a run, yeah, the defense is banged up right now, but that just leads to more points on offense. So I think that would kind of be the other out. I prefer Jaylen Herz, as do you, Sig, but I think there's a strong argument for Brock Pie in that spot as well. So right now, you know, just for everybody who's trying to pay attention to all this, we're throwing a ton of names out there. You and I both have Puka Nakua and Jackson Smith and Jigba. You went with Trevor Lawrence and I went with Josh Allen as the QB one. And then we both have Jaylen Herz as the QB two. What's the next position you want to talk about? Because I don't want to say like who's the running back? He took who's the one? As you're going through this kind of process in your mind, what decision did you end up going to next, like the next player that you really wanted to get on your roster?
C
So I think that the simplest one to just put his line through is Christian McCaffrey. Right.
A
So we are four for five.
C
Yeah. Well, and I mean this is. And this is where. I mean, I think through this show, Dave, what we're going to be able to winnow it down to is like three. Like I said, I said one or two. And obviously that Jacksonville Buffalo game is a big one. But then also how you feel about New England and then maybe some smaller decisions, some decisions that look small. But when, if, if you're wrong about who's going to win some of these wild card matchups, you can leave yourself a chance to make that up. So I think Christian McCraft, Adam Harson.
A
Likes to say it all the time, like set yourself up to be right even when you are wrong.
C
Right.
A
Do that so easily in this contest. You look at these games that kind of feel like coin flips where, you know, I expect the 49ers to beat the Eagles, but I don't have a lot of faith in it. So I want one from each team. So regardless of what happens, I'm set up in round two that I'm right regardless of what happen.
C
And you can say, well, if I'm wrong and this team loses that I expect to win. How do we. How are some of the ways that could happen and who could have a big game? This is how I ended up with the Steelers defense. But going Back to so McCaffrey and I think the problem with Brock Purdy, just to touch on him really quickly, is he just looked so bad against the Seahawks. And let's, let's give some credit to the Seahawks defense, but if you compare that to Matthew Stafford a few weeks ago and we're just talking about like who is a credible team that. I mean, I know Brock Purdy has taken 49ers to the super bowl to play winning the super bowl, but it just. You don't feel that momentum for this passing game against a credible defense like Vic Fangios defense. I think they did beat them last year, but that was a different, that was a whole different thing. So. And then the next, I think the next guy that is a little again, not stressful. Although I think there is a credible position to say put the Houston defense in. And it's like the Houston rides their defense to the Super Bowl. But then I do think it's Nico Collins. And I think it's NICO COLLINS Because C.J. stroud really targets him more in the deep passing game. He had 100 yard games. You know, if you start to project it forward and you have Houston against Jacksonville or Houston against New England, and I against Jacksonville. Nico Collins had 100 yard games. In both of the games, the Steelers just gave up two long touchdowns to Zay Flowers. You know, the Steelers are classic. Like the defense, if the pass rush gets home, look out. But if it doesn't, somebody's open and that's probably Nico Collins. And and the other thing is, you know, to fill out this lineup, you're going to have, let's just quickly, two quarterbacks, three running backs, four pass catchers, tight end folded into a wide receiver, plus a flex. So, you know, the next task after you fill in those quarterbacks is probably we're going to have to pick eight running backs, wide receiver, tight ends, so, you know, you get to work. And I think McCaffrey and Collins are the easiest ones to slot in.
A
So it's funny you say that because I had the same exact mindset as you. I put Nico Collins in and then when I started adding more teams and playing around and you know, another caveat to this that I mentioned earlier, you can only have one player per team in these early rounds. So as I'm building this team out, I just found Houston defense. That was the one that I ended up settling on. So I pulled Nico Collins out. I had to put somebody else back in there for the reasons you mentioned. But it's funny that even when you're talking about the player you pick, you talk about the other player that you kind of like from this team. So again, a very similar thought process here. So right now your team, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Pukinakua, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Nico Collins, we didn't spend a lot of time on Christian McCaffrey, but I want to say you talked about Pukinakua and Jackson Smith, Jigba being the free squares. Christian McCaffrey also kind of feels like a free square at this point, right? Like playing in round one, you know, you're getting the immediate points, win or lose. You're probably getting 25 to 30 points from Christian McCaffrey. And then if he hits that multiplier, you feel like you're just, you know, fighting against the stream. If you don't have him in round two.
C
And there's, I guess suppose one scenario again where Brock Purdy, he did have those two games with five total touchdowns back to back. And if he resumes that, then, you know, that's certainly possible. And a scenario where the Bears win in the first round. So that he gets to face a Bears team that was one of the teams he hung all those touchdowns on. And then facing the Rams. And we know a Rams 49ers game. You know, if the Rams go to. Oh, wait, I'm sorry. The Rams will be going to the Bears. See, this is again why I'm like, I'm retracing the steps of, like, why wasn't I even thinking about Brock Purdy? Because there's not really a path where he's not going to face tough defense. Right. Because if the Rams beat the Panthers, as we all expect, then you're likely to see the 49ers have to go to Seattle, where they just got shut down. Unless the packers win. But then they're going to go to. They're going to have to face the Rams. This is making my brain hurt trying.
A
To map all of this out. Like, it's just a spaghetti bowl of logic.
C
It is. And which is one where you. The shelter you come back to is like, how does Brock Purdy make me feel right now? How does the 49ers as a team that can advance? And starting with the first data point is against this Vic Fangio Eagles defense that really made Josh Allen look pretty powerless to move the ball. The Josh Allen that pulls a rabbit out of a hat for three quarters, like, just a couple of weeks ago. So, yeah, McCaffrey get. Gets in there because it's easier to pen a scenario where the. The 49ers get eliminated and the player you wanted to have in there was McCaffrey than one where Purdy puts the team on his back.
A
So following this train of logic, who was the next player that you were looking at that you wanted to get in your lineup here?
C
Yeah. Now we're, you know, now we get to the part that is kind of like, oh, and then I guess the other thing that is simple is I think if you have Josh Allen in, then you're pretty. You're set up for Travis etn. I mean, I think that. I think that you're going to have Allen and ETN or you're going to have Lawrence and James Cook. Right. And like I said, Dave, we can really start to see that. We can probably boil this down to like, the real entry is like six decisions and getting the most. If you can get all six of those right, that's where you end up in the six figures. And I think, you know, Houston defense versus Collins is a good one. And I think we can almost distill it down to, like, Lawrence and Allen. I'm sorry, Lawrence and Cook versus Allen and etn. So I ended up with James Cook because I took Trevor Lawrence.
A
I like that. And I actually this is where I did deviate a little bit. And I like what you're saying here. It was really tough not having ETN in my lineup. But again, this is one of those where just the way that I have the playoff bracket working out, I do have the lion or the Jaguars losing in round one to the Bills. So that's one that you, you have to plant these flags and it doesn't feel good doing it. But I ended up with Cam Little, a guy that we have seen just like easily making 65 plus yard field goals here. So with them being the one and done team, I did go with Cam Little. And then of course if they win, I don't want to say my team is completely busted. Like there are still ways to paint yourself out of that corner. But if that does happen with Josh Allen being my quarterback, if the Jaguars upset here that I'm looking at a two times multiplier on a kicker I don't have that AFC quarterback wouldn't feel great about that if, if that's the way it goes. But like I said, that's kind of the inflection point between my build and your build is that Buffalo Jacksonville game and how that one kind of shakes out. So you've got ETN in your lineup at this point you'd have one more player from what you expect to be a winning team in round one. Who was that?
C
Yeah, I. Going down.
A
Not even. This could also be the coin flips like. Well, it doesn't have to be a team you project to win. This is when you start looking at the. I want players from both teams in what I expect to be.
C
Yeah, I mean you're going to have ideally seven teams that win in five teams that lose. But you, you can really start to narrow this now as. So Cook is in there as my second running back. So I still have to have a running back. I still have to have a wide receiver. I still have to have a flex. And that's where we can go back to confidence in teams and at least say why I expect I don't have high confidence in Chicago or Green Bay or the Chargers compared to New England. And I'm sorry, Green Bay is one of the higher confidence teams. The Chargers and the Steelers are in my lineup as a defense. I kind of flew that. So we haven't talked about Denver. I think that there's an argument for RJ Harvey, and there's an argument for Cortland Sutton, but if we project out, how is Denver going to actually make it through the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl? I don't think it's going to be a Bo Nicks air show. I think it's going to be defense. And I think we've seen RJ Harvey really come on as a touchdown scorer, as a drive finisher for this team. So I, I slotted him in as my representative. And that's how you should think of it at this point. It's like you're going to have representatives. Like, you're not going to build a lineup without a Denver guy in the first round, right? You're not going to build a lineup without New England. Now, I don't have a slot for Drake May, and if you, and I think that the simplest starting point on the flowchart for folks is like, you know, New England, Buffalo or Jacksonville if you want, if you think one of them are going to make the super bowl, pick the quarterback for that team. Now, if you don't have a slot for Drake May, this is, you know, I think there's a, an honest, reasonable debate that is very difficult to solve between Ramon Ray Stevenson and Trebion Henderson. And I, and I, I went with Stevenson because I think that we're looking for diversity. We're looking at a player who I think is just more in tune with Drake May in the passing game and who just is playing his best football right now, you know. So again though, the Stevenson vs. Henderson could be another pivot point that separates some of these entries.
A
And with Stevenson, we see this from time to time where these guys pick up these little injuries mid season and then they just come back from injury and they are just fresher than everybody else. And right now Radre Stevenson has fresher legs than most guys in the NFL. So this is another one that, you know, as we're kind of talking through this, I ended up with Cortland Sutton instead of R.J. harvey. And my reason for that is because being in on Josh Allen, I figured if they do upset that game and, and the Bills lose having Cortland Sutton, I can at least get Bo Nix added to my team in round two. Still get a 3x multiplier on BO Nix. But I don't have a lot of faith in that Denver Broncos passing attack. So that feels like to me, the weakest point in my build is that if Buffalo loses that, I'm kind of investing into the Broncos passing attack and I Don't feel great about that. You also talk about the New England backfield. That's where I deviated a little bit. I went with Trayvon Henderson and I know Radre Stevenson coming off the three touchdown game. I think a lot of people like he, he looked fantastic yesterday. But I do wonder how much was just like, hey, let's keep Henderson as fresh as possible because I think we have seen that there's a slight preference for Henderson when the two are healthy. But again, the, the, the Patriots way, we never really know with this backfield. So I went with Henderson just because, you know, one, two plays is all he really needs to make his week. But I think if there was one thing that I wish I could get a look at before submitting these lineups, it would be the ownership on Henderson and Stevenson. Because I think the best thing you could do here is just differentiate from the field. If you're able to get that lower own guy, I think that's where you can get an advantage. So working through this year, unless I miss somebody, I think we still have one more pass catcher. It's the wide receiver, tight end spot and then one more flex player to fill out your lineup.
C
Well, I got. So I have. Here's what I have so far. Okay. Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts a quarterback. Steve McCaffrey, Cook and Stevenson at running back, JSN Nakua and Collins at wide receiver. And then Harvey's going to be my flex. So I, I'll have one. And I have Pittsburgh as my defense again. I kind of spoiled that even though in the process it would come later. So. And with the Bears ax, that would leave me with Green Bay and, and the Chargers and I just think that it's easier to isolate Christian Watson with Jordan.
A
Love, you alluded to Christian Watson a little bit earlier. I thought that's what you're going.
B
Yeah.
C
And he had two touchdowns in the first matchup. The Bears. I mean, Nayshaun Wright, what a wonderful story. It ties into the coach. God, my brain from Oakland who was shot down earlier this year. But the Bears do have vulnerability in the back of that secondary and we.
A
Jalen Johnson is also so hurt right now. Yeah, he was getting cooked by Khalif Raymond yesterday. Like it is not looking good for the secondary at all.
C
So it just seems like if you're authoring a Packers win, if I'm already taking a stand and saying I'm not putting any Bears in. So I'm saying the packers are going to win, even though I see that as a coin Flip game. This entry says the packers are going to win. How are they going to win? And you know, it could. If it was Josh, if I thought it was Josh Jacobs, then I might have to take Harvey out of flex and put Sutton in. And, you know, this is another potential pivot point. I think Sutton, Harvey is another pivot point and I think Jacobs and Watson is a potential pivot point where there's a meaningful decision to be made. And I went with Watson just because Jordan loves accuracy as a deep passer. And the history of this matchup, again, the two touchdowns, even in the matchup when Love got knocked out, Willis threw a bomb to Dobbs for touchdown. So I have Watson in there, which leaves, you know, again, spoiler Dicker, the kicker. And I guess that in a Chargers upset win in Foxborough, it would be like the Chargers defense getting stops, it becoming like a field goal, field position kind of battle. And we have seen Dicker have games where he has four, five, six field goals. And the Chargers are comfortable in that kind of game and they want it to become that kind of game. I think that if it is a shootout, if it is about the offensive firepower, that's that. That's probably where the Chargers lose. But again, you know, I mean, we're predicting the Chargers to lose, but this is like you said, the Adam Harstad, like, be ready to be right if you're wrong. Well, if I'm wrong and the Chargers win, just like you were saying about Cam Little and, you know, doing these thought exercises when you're saying, well, I'm picking a player from a team, I have these two or three spots left to divvy up between these teams that I expect to lose. It's still meaningful to say, important if they win, how are they going to do it?
A
And I think one of the ones that I was, you know, I think is a little bit tighter than Vegas does. I still think the Chargers are a good team. And I think that Herbert has a little bit more experience in the playoffs than May does at this point. So I think that's kind of the chalky one that a lot of people are just assuming that, you know, we're just going to see the Patriots run away with that game and they very well could. But that's one where I wanted to set myself up to be wrong. And this is also a little bit of differentiation as well. I did end up with Omarion Hampton in my final build. Just looking at that, you know, we have seen him splitting touches with Kamani Vidal, but once you get to the playoffs, every game matters a little bit more. We see teams tend to lean on their better players and I think that Amari Hampton is just a significantly better running back than Kamani Vidal. So there weren't a lot of other guys with the way the, the ball gets spread amongst the pass catchers there. There was nobody a wide receiver that I really had a lot of faith in. So I ended up going with Omarion Hampton. Another little deviation I had in mind was Josh Jacobs. I ended up with him in my flex spot and again, you know, I said this is the one game that I think I have the least amount of confidence in. I think Green Bay is going to win. Vegas thinks that the Bears are going to win. So I ended up with Colson Loveland as one of my pass catchers who by all accounts I think surprised a lot of people led the Bears in receptions and receiving yards this year as a rookie playing tight end coming off of an injury. So I think that he's heating up the right time. He seems to have the faith of Caleb Williams when it matters most. But I think that's the one that I keep flip flopping back and forth on right now. And I, I talked about this a little bit earlier. I've got Colson Loveland and as a pass catcher and I've got the Houston Texans defense in right now. But I kind of want to flip flop that and go with Nico Collins as a pass catcher and then setting up Chicago's defense. But I have no faith in Chicago's defense at all. Like that's one where you can end up getting negative eight points in round one if they just get beaten like a dumb by the Packers. So I think that's the fear here. And you talk about, you know, at the top of the show I was joking about how many similarities we had that we just ended up with so many of the same players. And I think you are going to see a lot of Puka, a lot of JSN, a lot of McCaffrey, a lot of Lawrence, a lot of Purdy, a lot of Allen. But I think it's once you start getting a little bit further down to these coin flip games where the ball gets spread around, that's where you can really differentiate your build. So let me walk through this one more time before we sign off here. Sig your team, Trevor Lawrence, Jaylen Herz, Chris McCaffrey, James Cook, Radre Stevenson, Puk Nukua, Jackson Smith, Najigba, Nico Collins, Christian Watson, RJ Harvey, and then you Have Dicker the kicker and the Steelers defense. For my build, I've got Josh Allen, Jaylen Herz, Trayon Henderson, Christian McAffrey, Omari and Hampton Pukua, Jackson, Smith, Najigba, Cortland, Sutton, Colston, Loveland, Josh Jacobs, and then Cam Little and the Houston Texans defense. Now, you can already understand as you're listening to Sig and I talk through this, why you might want to have more than one entry in this context. Exactly right. Like I'm looking at this right now and I'm like, well, I, I kind of like this team. But Sig made some really good points. I kind of want a second team as well. So two things there on that note. One, if you buy the three pack, six pack or nine pack, you get savings. But also for the people that you know, 200, that's, that's not a stock. Small ask, we realize that is a big entry. There's also the postseason mini that you can enter, which is just a $50 entry. Obviously a bit of a smaller prize up top, but still a chance to win $50,000 and has the same three pack, six pack and nine pack savings there. So help out our friends over at the nffc. We had a ton of fun this year, Sig. We did a team together that we drafted this preseason. Got hot late in the season, but unfortunately a little too little too late. We missed that one there. But the team that I drafted with Joey Wright ended up advancing. The team that I drafted with Matt Waldman advanced as well. So we had a few bullets in the playoffs there in the NFFC contest, but love working with the guys over there. They do a really fun contest. Just a, a good partnership that we're nurturing over here at football. Guys, sick. Before we sign off here, any final words of encouragement or advice to anybody that's going to be building these lineups?
C
Yeah, I think that you added that extra part at the end about discounts on multiple teams or mixing and matching maybe like your highest confidence ticket in the $200 contest and then playing some. So I talk out of both sides of my mouth. You can hedge, but you can hedge with different lineups. That again, starting with the point of where were the toughest decisions for me. Now I'm going to put in a lineup where I flick all the switches the opposite direction and let's see what happens. And again, there's meaningful decisions to make. And otherwise, whether it's through fantasy football or through following the playoffs together, you know, Cecil and I are going to be doing our previews. Football guys is going to continue to turn out content about the playoffs and then about the free agency and the coaching changes and the draft. And really it's just a chance for us all to hang out. Like hanging out with my friend Dave Kluge here today in the middle of my day, like, that brightens my day. Like all of you in the chat room, including the Joey, right, who's mourning the Bucks. And I get it. I mean, how did the Panthers weren't supposed to beat the Ram. I mean Panthers, the Falcons weren't supposed to beat the Rams. The Panthers weren't either. But so I just. What a terrible backdoor cover. Anyway, it's just really fun that we have this community to hang out with and NFFC like us as like mom and pop and been around for a long, long time. So you know that, you know we're all among friends here like we always are anytime that we're here on The Football Guys YouTube channels. Yeah.
A
And if you want to learn a little bit more about nffc, coming out with a podcast tomorrow with our friend Tom Kasenich, who is over on Sirius xm, but he's also one of the. Ooh, I should have known this before I said it. I think he's one of the founders, maybe a founder. I know he's, he's over at NFFC doing a lot of work with them. So I'm going to have him on a little bit to talk some more about this contest and just some other things that they're doing over at the nffc. So check that out. That'll be on podcast tomorrow. But I want to thank so everybody so much for taking the time to tune in today. We will hopefully have good news to share at the end of this and say you talked about it. You know, this time of year I think a lot of people are just like happy that the fantasy season is over. But in my opinion, this is one of the best times of the year. Like, we've got playoff football here, we've got rookie scouting coming up. The NFL draft will be here before we know it. And this is the time of year when we get to just interact with so many other people in the industry because we are just head down working like crazy in season. So want to thank everybody so much who took the time to tune in. We will be back soon.
Episode: Postseason Fantasy Football Strategy
Date: January 6, 2026
Host(s): Dave Kluge & Alfredo Brown
Guests: Tom Kessenich (NFFC), Sigmund Bloom (Footballguys)
This episode is a playoff masterclass for fantasy football fans, focusing on the NFFC Postseason Hold’em Contest. Dave Kluge is joined by Tom Kessenich (NFFC) and Sigmund Bloom (Footballguys) to break down postseason fantasy strategy, key contest decisions, pitfalls for new and advanced players, and how to maximize your edge on playoff football’s biggest stage. Lively, rich, and detailed, the discussion covers everything from high-stakes drafting philosophy to specific and actionable lineup-building for the Postseason Hold’em format.
Guest: Tom Kessenich ([01:53] – [09:00])
“Learn the ADP, but don’t become glued to the ADP. Go and get your guys. Don’t be afraid... That’s what high-stakes players do, and they win with that strategy.”
— Tom Kessenich [03:12]
“Don’t worry about who you’re drafting against. Draft your team. That’s your number one focus.”
— Tom Kessenich [05:54]
Host/Guests: Dave Kluge & Tom Kessenich ([08:54] – [18:28])
“In the first round you have to start 12 players from 14 teams—which means you’re fading two teams... That’s going to be very interesting.”
— Tom Kessenich [11:02]
Host/Guests: Dave Kluge & Sigmund Bloom ([19:11] – [59:41])
“The lowest confidence teams to make the Super Bowl are probably [your] kicker, defense.”
— Sigmund Bloom [27:15]
On High-Stakes Attitude:
“Go and get your guys. That’s what high-stakes players do, and they win with that strategy. They're not afraid to take a guy a round or two earlier.”
— Tom Kessenich [03:12]
On Unique Year for the Contest:
“There’s no dominant team in either conference... This year more so than any year, it’s wide, wide open.”
— Tom Kessenich [09:20]
On the Biggest Decision of the NFFC Format:
“Fading those two correct teams [in round one]... I think it’s the most important thing.”
— Tom Kessenich [13:05]
Playoff Fantasy Football Mindset:
“The cardinal sin… is trying to hedge and play both sides of things. All that does is lower your ceiling.”
— Sigmund Bloom [24:30]
Ownership, Chalk & Differentiation:
“By stepping through this process we can absolutely have a chance to understand… where the pivot points are… you’re taking a stand on one or two things to happen in the playoffs.”
— Sigmund Bloom [29:19]
On Multiple Entries:
“You can hedge—but you hedge with different lineups.”
— Sigmund Bloom [59:41]
| Segment | Topic | Speaker | Timestamp | |------------------|---------------------------------------|--------------|-----------| | High-stakes Mistakes | Beating ADP bias, player confidence | Kessenich | 01:53–04:05| | Picking Fade Teams | Panthers, Bears as common fades | Kessenich | 11:02–13:05| | Building for Multipliers | Super Bowl anchors & survivors | Both | 21:00–25:00| | AFC Super Bowl QB Debate | Allen vs Lawrence decision | Both | 33:09–36:57| | NFC QB/Likely Chalk | Jalen Hurts or Purdy | Both | 36:57–41:19| | Free Squares | Nakua/JSN/McCaffrey chalk | Both | 41:19–44:15| | Flex/Secondary Pivots | Stevenson/Henderson, Harvey/Sutton | Both | 51:22–54:06| | Final Lineups | Dave & Sig reveal/builds | Both | 54:06–59:41| | Advice & Community | Entry strategies, contest fun | Both | 59:41–61:17|
Sigmund Bloom’s Build:
Dave Kluge’s Build:
This episode is for the fiercely-competitive playoff fantasy football player—but it radiates the camaraderie and joy of a football-obsessed community. The actionable strategy, contest walk-through, and the willingness to show their own process (even their lineup pivots and doubts!) make it a gold mine for postseason fantasy success.
[Listen for the full breakdown of each critical decision, high stakes mindset, and fun playoff banter—timestamps above for your strategy deep-dive.]