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Predicting This Offseason's Losers and Winners with Theo Gremminger || Fantasy Football 2026
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- [00:01]
A
Thank you for tuning in to another episode of the Launch Pad. I'm your host, Dave Kluge, as always joined with a great guest. And today we've got Theo Greminger from Fantasy Points, one of the busiest guys in fantasy football, coming out with podcasts nearly every single day. Today we're going to look forward at the 2026 offseason, talking about some potential winners and losers through all the mayhem. This is a tough episode because we don't know where these players are going to end up, but we are doing our best to get ahead of the market, skating to where the puck is going. Now. If you like this episode, please do me a favor and leave a review on Apple Podcasts. It is the best way to help this show grow. Let me know what you think about these episodes of the Launchpad as I will be bringing them to you every single week between now and the NFL Draft. This wouldn't be possible without you taking the time to listen, so thank you so much for tuning in. Now, let's dive in. Theo Gremminger, welcome to the show. How are you doing today?
- [00:58]
B
I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on. We've chopped it up so many times, but this is always good to get together, especially early on in the year like this.
- [01:06]
A
Technically still playoffs, but you know, this feels like the start of the off season. And I don't know about you, Theo, but I'm starting to look ahead at the draft and free agency and kind of, kind of try to map out how this offseason is going to shake out.
- [01:18]
B
Yeah, I. I've been doing a lot of the same. I'm working on a free agents ran ranking for fantasy football article and then I'm doing the 2026 NFL Draft podcast with Brett Whitefield. So I'm having to like really dive into the NFL draft, maybe a little bit more so than I usually do this time of year or so completely with you, you can't get comfortable in fantasy football. Values are going to shift and I kind of love some of the stuff you want to talk about today.
- [01:43]
A
Yeah. And you talk about the NFL Draft. We are diving into that as well. I always wait until after the Vegas retreat that is like we do our wild card weekend Vegas retreat for football football guys. As soon as I get back, I turn the page, start looking at the draft and we know some of the big name players already. But now I'm kind of getting in the weeds, scouting these guys from North Dakota State and writing my scouting reports and all that fun stuff. So it'll be here before you know it. We're about two weeks out from having version one of that football guys rookie guide out. So be sure to pre order that if you haven't already. But what we're going to do today is just predicting some offseason winners and losers. Looking at how we expect some things to shake out this offseason, some guys who could end up getting, gaining and losing value, especially dynasty. You know it is dynasty season in January. So we'll get clearer pictures once we get through the draft, through free agency and all that stuff. We are going to speculate as best as we can today. Theo, talk to me about the first guy you want to talk about that you think could be a big winner this offseason.
- [02:34]
B
Yeah, I'll start off right at the top. And when you look at the 2026 NFL Draft class, we're recording this on Wednesday. We should know if Dante Moore is going to declare for the NFL draft today.
- [02:46]
A
Today.
- [02:47]
B
Today's the, the deadline. But even if Dante Moore does declare, it's looking more and more like a two quarterback class. Especially when you're talking about guys who could potentially start year one, guys who are drafted in in the first round early draft pick, locked in quarterback values. For me, the guy who's going to gain a ton of value this offseason and could end up having a Daniel Jones like season is Malik Willis. And Malik Willis is going to be a free agent. Uh, he's sort of been a strong backup quarterback for multiple years in Green Bay, was a third round draft pick when he first came out to the league which was a little disappointing for, for the Malik Willis truthers who thought maybe he could end up being a first round pick that year. Didn't happen coming out of Liberty, but I think it's about the time. We saw it in that game against Baltimore in week 17 where a lot of super flex managers use Malik Willis in that one and he had a huge, huge performance. All Malik Willis needs is a starting opportunity and he's going to score a lot of fantasy points. He, his profile is extremely fantasy friendly because he's very mobile, but he's also an underrated passer and he's got experience playing in that Green Bay system. I think he's a just a plug and play type guy, only 26 years old and Dave, you can go down the list here. If, if Dante Moore doesn't declare, I think the New York jets are a possible landing spot for him. Arizona could be up in the air with what they do with Kyler Murray. Possible landing spot, Cleveland Browns, possible landing spot, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's a few other teams that could bring him in like Minnesota. If Minnesota wants to have a competition for JJ McCarthy and any of those spots I named, if he signs with them, you're going to see his ADP go way, way up. I think he's got top 15 QB potential in redraft next year and I think as a dynasty asset he's a little bit more insulated than we would think. As long as he gets that contract because again, 26 years old.
- [04:56]
A
Yeah, and you talk about the Steelers and the Dolphins. Those are the two teams that I predicted last week when Jeff Bell and I did our quarterback preview episode. It just makes so much sense. And we know like Tomlin has been infatuated with Malik Willis through the rookie process. I remember that pro day where there pictures going around where he's just like slack jawed in the crowd watching Malik Dois do these sorts of things. And you talk about that game against Baltimore that for me like I have always looked at Malik Willis as just a guy who's going to go out there and accrue his fantasy points as a rusher. We know he's got the big arm, kind of like an Anthony Richardson type of player. But when he came out against Baltimore in a pass heavy game script and still looked unbelievable like hitting throws at every level of the field, completing over 85% of his passes, that to me was a huge step in Malik Willis's development and also just like a fun guy to root for. You know, seen the stories like during the NFL draft when he was in Indianapolis he got his bag of swag from Adidas and immediately went to like a, a block where there were a bunch of homeless people hanging out and gave out all of his stuff you heard about. I remember a, a Packers beat reporter was pressing him when he had a start against Tennessee last year saying like are you excited for this revenge game? And he said revenge? What are you talking about? Like my NFL story wouldn't be here if the Titans didn't take a chance on me. I owe them nothing but thanks and gratitude. Like just a good guy to root for. And of course we know that when he's out there, to me it's so similar to Justin Fields. Like is he going to hold on to a starting job all year? We don't know. But when he's out there we're starting him as a top 10 plug and play quarterback. So yeah, there's going to be a lot of available spots this offseason and I'm a big Malik Willis fan, so hoping that he can land somewhere. Any, any final thoughts on Malik Wills here?
- [06:26]
B
Theo no, I mean, I think that he's, if you're a Dynasty manager right now, he's a great, great player to trade for and if we're wrong on this one, it's not going to cost you a lot. And I think as long as soon as he signs with somebody, that dynasty value goes way, way up. Also, I think he's an interesting early best ball pick if you're going to do some of these early best ball drafts. Malik Willison easy, easy guy to get excited about.
- [06:49]
A
Next guy I want to talk about is Braylon Allen and we don't know exactly what's going on with Breeze Hall. Jeff Bell and I talked about this on the Dynasty show that just released a couple of days ago. Jeff thinks that he is going to get franchise tagged by the New York Jets. I think that's a possibility as well. They've got money to blow $14 million to keep them around there, but even if they do, Braylon Allen is a guy that I just like so much since he was coming into the league when you got to remember this guy was drafted just two months after his 19th birthday. He is still so young, still just 21 years old, has everything that we want to see in a potential workhorse back. Six foot one, 235 pounds. Again, that was at age 20. He is in the 96th percentile in size, adjusted speed. We've seen little flashes here and there in between injuries, but I think that they drafted Braylon Allen with the intention of holding on to him, letting him develop for a couple of years, kind of grow even a little bit more and then become that fear future workhorse. And there's a lot of excitement here for Isaiah Davis, but I think there are overlapping skill sets between what Isaiah Davis does and what Breeze hall does. So if they retain Breeze Hall, I think that Braylon Allen is a great complementary piece who can work in a split backfield. But if Breeze hall leaves in free agency, I'd expect Braylon Allen to be the primary running back there in New York. So this is one of those guys, we see it all the time where guys end the season on ir, just get completely forgotten about in Dynasty circles. I'm still going out and try to acquire Braylon Allen now. I don't think Braille now is a guy that you go out and you trade a third or a second round pick for. I think what you do is you try to make another trade. Where you look at Braylon Allen is just kind of the throw in that that fantasy manager isn't even thinking about. You know, make to a trade for wide receivers or quarterbacks inside of a tier and ask for Braylon Allen as that throw in piece. He's a guy that I will be aggressively targeting this offseason. Whether he stays with New York or whether Bree hall goes somewhere else. I see multiple paths for Braylon Allen to finally break out like we had hoped for.
- [08:32]
B
Yeah. And Braylon Allen will be 23 years old as a free agent. So he's a player that the second contract could be very interesting. There was a ton of steam and enthusiasm for Braylon Allen last off season where the beat reporters were all over him. We had some tremendous quotes from, from Aaron Glenn about him. They were very, very enthusiastic about Allen. Robert Sala also was a big fan of Braylon Allen. Allen's had a number of really good looking performances and so very small sample size. I've. I love Braylon Allen. I think, you know, he's a guy that maybe got me in a little bit of trouble last year because I kept singing his praises and then of course goes down for the season. Not sure I agree with Jeff Bell on the franchise tag for Breece Hall. I think that'll be an interesting one. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities, but not sure New York goes in that direction. I think you could end up seeing Braylon Allen being the main part of a committee next year if they do move off of Breeze Hall. And like you said, it's that profile that coaches gravitate towards. It's the elite, elite athlete and it's the massive size. It's like coaches see that and they say I got to get this guy touches. I always remember the story. And Robert Sala is this very. He's one of the more, I'd say one of the more fit, one of the more jacked like coaches in the NFL. Very like out of doubt without like you guys when he was in San Francisco was even bigger. I think that the New York jets job probably cost him about 15 pounds of muscle from the stress. But Salah is like no joke in the weight room. And I remember the. He talked to the strength and conditioning coach when they drafted Braylon Allen and Braylon Allen was like 240, 240 plus. And he said, let can we get this guy down to like 230. If we have him lose 10 pounds, then he's going to be way more effective as a runner. And the strength and conditioning coach said it's impossible. Coach, because Braylon Allen has one of like the 2 or 3 lowest body fat percentages on the entire team. So Braylon Allen's like a real absolute unit. All football players are, are like jack dudes, but Braylon Allen's like a next level type when you factor in his size and, and just how muscular he is to go with his speed. So Braylon Allen, I agree with you. I think he's a really fun player to roster. I might give up a late third for him. I think it's an interesting argument, but if you can find other ways to get him, I think that's a, that's a much better strategy than me.
- [10:54]
A
Yeah, and I'd trade a third for sure. But I think that like getting him for, for cheaper in a package deal just makes more sense. But if you can't get that worked out and you want to just give up a third, I think that's totally justifiable. And, and Theo, again, like, I can't help but keep going back to the age. Like I said, this Guy was drafted two months after his 20th birthday. Like he was 19 years old when he started the rookie process. And if you look at a picture of him from like when he was at the combine to, to now, he is like noticeably put on 15, 20 pounds. And we don't get these regular weigh ins. Like we just heard this with Darnell Washington, right? Like listed at 280, said he's playing closer to 330. Like Derrick Henry is probably closer to like 260 nowadays. His listed weight, Derek Henry might be.
- [11:32]
B
Like 270 in the off season.
- [11:33]
A
Seriously? Yeah. And my guess is that Braylon Allen, his playing weight is probably going to settle in around £250. As you know, he, he, he fills out a little bit more. So just a fun player, an aggressive player, a super athlete that should finally get his opportunity in 2026. Theo, who's the next guy that you would about a potential winner this off season.
- [11:51]
B
So you can just see the reactions on X now. It's going to be Alec Pierce got what in a contract? Alec Pierce is going to get a massive, massive contract. Alec Pierce, a great player to go and acquire. First of all, he was good this year. He had a number of really, really big weeks his first year with over a thousand receiving yards. He had over 800 last year. In only 15 games played this year, Dave, he had a thousand receiving yards. The yards per reception total have just been incredible the last two years. 21 yards per reception this year, 22 last year. 13 touchdown grabs over the last two years. And I think NFL teams are going to look at Alec Pierce with way higher regard than maybe the fantasy community. He's only 25 years old. He was a second round pick in 2022. So he's got day two capital. And I think Alec Pierce is a plug and play wide receiver. And there are certain teams where he could end up being their wide receiver one. Now, maybe he's not the wide receiver one. If we were drawing it up saying you want Alec Pierce to be a wide receiver one, I think the better situation stylistically would be for him to be a wide receiver too. But the market's not treating him that way. And I think there's a chance that if the landing spot is good, Alec Pierce is going to gain exceptional dynasty value. I know for sure he's going to going to gain redraft value. Alec Pierce, as soon as free agency starts, you're going to look at him and you're going to say, wow, I wish I would have traded for him. So many teams out there that could use a guy like Alec Pierce. I think the market's going to be red hot for him.
- [13:29]
A
So how would you feel if he stays with Al or with Indianapolis? Because that is my expectation here. I, I don't think that they're going to let him go. I think that they drafted Adonai Mitchell in the hopes that he can become like Alec Pierce 2.0. But when I saw that trade go down where they got rid of Adonai Mitchell at the trade deadline, to me that signaled that Alec Pierce would probably be a part of their long term plans. And if you look right now, Michael Pittman this year would be owed $29 million. If he plays in 2026, they can save $24 million by releasing him and just eat the 5 million in dead cap. So when I look at it like just team construction, I think if they go out there next year with Alec Pierce, Josh Browns and Tyler Warren still with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, I feel like that's enough offensive firepower right there. My expectation is that they let Alec or that they let Michael Pittman walk, he becomes a free agent and they do pay Alec Pierce to be that wide receiver of the future.
- [14:22]
B
I think that, that him staying in Indianapolis is, is a fine outcome for him. They're gonna have to pay him a good amount. You, we, we bring up the, the profile. It feels like he's a player that has just taken a little while to develop. But I know that they love him organizationally. Goes from 5 points per game in 2023 to 10 in 2024 up to 12 this year. And you look at some of the underlying metrics there, I think he could sustain a lot more target volume. The targets per route, run the, the yards per target, everything is up there. And not to mention the guy's a killer when it comes to air yards, as we'd imagine. But he's number one this year in air yard share, so already has a pretty strong role there. I don't see why he can't get up to the, let's call it the 15 points per game level at remaining a Colt. You bring up Pittman sort of moving on. So I think Alec Pierce, he's just a player you want. Maybe a lot of guys, we see them ascend earlier. So ascending and having your best season ever at 26. It happens sometimes. I think that's where we're heading with Alec Pierce.
- [15:29]
A
Yeah. And the last thing I'll say is if there's any concerns about the quarterback situation in Indianapolis with Daniel Jones coming back from the injury. We've seen Alec Pierce smash with Anthony Richardson. We saw him with Riley Leonard catch for 132 yards and two touchdowns in the final game of the season. So the best case scenario, of course for Alec Pierce if he returns to Indianapolis would be that Daniel Jones is healthy to start the year and that he can work with him. But we have seen Alec Pierce overcome bad situations. All it takes for him is one catch and if he gets four catches then he could end up having a weak winning week. So completely with you on Alec Pierce, he's a guy that I will be aggressively targeting as well this offseason. The next guy I'm going to talk about here, and this is a guy that I made a huge swing on from how I felt about him before the season started to how I felt about him after his rookie season and that's Devin Neal. I was not a big fan of the player. There was nothing about Devin Neal that particularly excited me. Like he was a very well rounded and versatile back, but didn't have game breaking speed, didn't have, you know, the best short area movements, didn't have the best power. It was just kind of like slightly above average at doing anything. And those guys are hard to get excited about in the rookie process. But then you see him on a field and you say, oh yeah, those skills are translatable to the NFL. That's what we saw from Devin Neal. Now, looking at trying to expect how the Saints offseason is going to shake out, I can't even try to pontificate on this. I mean, I think that Alvin Camara probably stays with the Saints. There's almost no cap relief. If they do choose to release him, they'd be eating about $18 million. There's potential for a trade, but it sounds like he wants to retire a Saint and I don't know if there's much of a market for Alvin Camara right now. Maybe he just flat out retires. But either way, regardless of what happens with Alvin Camara, Devin Neal looked really good last year. He was a workhorse at Kansas and we saw in his two games as a starter for the Saints he had 17 and 20 touches. Still maintaining a workhorse load there. So like I said, wasn't the biggest fan of the prospect, but really liked what I saw over his handful of starts this year. And whether Alvin Camara is a part of the offense next year or not, I expect Devin Neal to be a big part of that rushing attack.
- [17:27]
B
Yeah, Devin Neal is an interesting one and not a name that I would have come up with. Usually I'm trying to fade the guys that are like day three picks, but I do think that that could get us in trouble when we look back at the 2025 class. Guys, you know, of course like Kyle Menangai were really good this year, but it was such a deep running back class that some players just got pushed down last year. So Devin Neal, I think if it.
- [17:50]
A
Would have been and Cam scatter boo.
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B
Like they were guys that were playing.
- [17:54]
A
Like round two picks, like getting round two workload that fell to round four just because of how deep the class was.
- [17:59]
B
Yeah, Devin Neal Maybe was a fourth round pick if we if he was eligible in 2024 instead of 2025. He's interesting. I will say that there's a massive looming threat if you're holding a Devin Neal bag in the NFL draft. Jeremiah Love at 8 overall makes a ton of sense. You mentioned Alva Camara turning 31 years old. He's regressing and he wasn't necessarily the greatest fit in this Kellen Moore offense like regardless. So I do think that there's a chance if New Orleans likes their team, they have the offensive line should be pretty strong next year. Tyler Schuck is all set. Chris Olave Locked in. Apparently they're going to give him an extension. Then I think there's a chance they go skill position player at 8 overall. Take one of the wide receivers or Jeremiah Love. If you get Jeremiah Love in New Orleans. Lights out for anyone there at the running back position. So I will say Neil's got a chance and he's still super, super cheap.
- [18:57]
A
And that is always the fear. Like talking about any sort of running backs worth acquiring in January. We have no idea how it's going to shake out. And like on top of all of the pending free agents, we were talking about potential releases on the show with Jeff Bell a couple days ago. And there's James Connor, there's DeAndre Swift. There's so many Aaron Jones, like guys that aren't set to be free agents that are probably going to be released. So when you look at like the potential available pool of free agents that we're going to be looking at a month from now, they're 15 plus talented running backs out there that are going to be looking for a job. This to me more than anything isn't saying like, go trade whatever you can to get Devin Neal. This is me just kind of taking a step back and saying, hey, this is what I thought about Devin Neal before the season started and I feel much better about him now. Of course, any day three running back can get kneecapped throughout free agency or the draft, but a guy that was completely off my radar that now I'm willing to, you know, target as a throw in. In a package deal.
- [19:50]
B
Yeah, no, that makes total, total sense. He's got a shot.
- [19:53]
A
So who's the next guy you want to talk about here, Theo?
- [19:55]
B
Yeah. So for me, I'm going to talk about a player that I'm higher on in fantasy and in dynasty than a lot. I think a lot of the community's always very angry when you bring this player's name up because the player's name is synonymous with sort of like railroading a potential Kenneth Walker production. And that's Zach Charbonnet. Zach Charbonnet could end up being a huge winner post free agency. Charbonnet has continued to score touchdowns at a high clip in this Seattle offense. And he's done it under multiple coordinators. He had nine touchdown scores in 2024, then this year had 12 touchdowns. And Kenneth Walker is a upcoming free agent. If Walker moves on, I think the offense is going to look even more Zach Charbonnet esque. He'll have the short yardage situation, but I think that the receiving Numbers are going to look even better than they were in 2024. In 2024, he had 42 catches. In 2023, when the offense wasn't targeting running backs nearly as much, he ended up having more catches that year than Kenneth Walker. He's averaged over 4 yards per carry every season of his career. I think there's a chance that you get like a 15 point per game season this year out of Zach Charbonnet, and I don't think the community wants to embrace him. But he was running back 30 in points per game in 2024, running back 27 in points per game this year, now has a chance to take over this backfield. And if we think back to Zach Charbonnet, the prospect he went in the second round in 2023, there was a lot of people who really liked him. Very productive player at UCLA. And he's still young. He's 25 years old. He's got a chance to have the most volume he's ever had in his career. Now, I think that Seattle would bring in another running back for sure if Kenneth Walker moves on. But I don't think that that running back is going to be as talented or explosive as Kenneth Walker. So there, I think there's a chance that Charbonnet ends up trending up significantly.
- [21:58]
A
Dude, you are preaching to the choir here. I am one of the biggest Zach Chardonnay touts out there. And, you know, I was worried when he first got drafted that he was just going to flat out take the job from Kenneth Walker. And people thought I crazy for saying it, but I'm like, this guy's better size, adjusted speed, he's bigger. He pulled a higher target share in college. He's better in goal line situations. And there has been a split, you know, like a 55, 45 split in favor of Kenneth Walker. But we know Charbonnet has been the preferred guy at the goal line. Now I feel like everybody kind of has to, like, choose the line in the sand that they want to step on. Like, are you team Zach Charbonnet or are you team Kenneth Walker? And something I have been saying since last off season is just acquire both of these guys more often than not. If you just acquire talented running backs, the cream will rise to the top. These talented players find themselves in better situations, and that is a perfect segue to the guy I want to talk about, which is Kenneth Walker. And I think that Zach Charbonnet has a lot to win here. I think Kenneth Walker does as well. This is the old blackjack Split right. You got two aces right now. You want to split them and you can end up hitting on both of them. And I think that's what's going to happen. The worst case scenario is that Seattle retains Kenneth Walker where he was an RB2 last year. Zach Charbonnet was an RB2 last year. So that's the worst case scenario is that two talented backs are splitting this backfield and you're getting RB2 production from both of them. The best case scenario is that Kenneth Walker leads the free agency class. We talked about Bree hall potentially getting retained by the Jets. Maybe he hits free agency. I think Travis ETN is very likely to stay with Jacksonville. So when I look at it, Kenneth Walker is likely going to be the top free agent in this class. And if he stays with Seattle, cool. We know what, exactly what we're getting there. If he falls to another team, he's probably going to sign with a good offense that has a need for running back. So I like both of these guys and I don't think you need to be team Ken Walker or team Zach Sharpay. They're both talented running backs. I think you just go out and acquire both of these guys this offseason knowing that they can both end up skyrocketing when they're just split from each other.
- [23:49]
B
Yeah, I love this one. I think that Kenneth Walker, it's a, it's a player that we know he's talented. We know that on the like the, all the per touch stuff is there. He's got the home run hitting ability. He's also a good receiver. The problem has been he needs more touches and he needs a team to embrace him. The great thing about free agency is a lot of times one of the edges in fantasy football is just embracing players in new situations because teams are bringing them in for a reason. So maybe Kenneth Walker wasn't the greatest fit for everything Seattle wanted to do. But there's a bunch of teams out there that are going to cater their running game to Kenneth Walker's talents. And there's also organizations that value the big play significantly. You know, some of these analytically based organizations. So you, you brought up DeAndre Swift could get cut. It feels like Kenneth Walker in Chicago, that was. That's one that I guessed. I know that there's a bunch of people who've mentioned him as a potential Houston Texan. Kansas City would be a dream scenario. There's so many scenarios there. Then you also factor in.
- [24:54]
A
Much like breeze ever, Mike McDaniel ends up signing as an offensive coordinator would be a great fit with Kenneth Walker, right?
- [25:00]
B
Yeah. And I think Kenneth Walker is also capable of, hey, how about Javante Williams lose leaves Dallas and Dallas signs Walker as a replacement. I mean there's a million scenarios that we could come up with that are good, good landing spots for him. Then there's also some quote unquote bad landing spots where maybe the landing spot wouldn't be great, but we would get the guarantee on the touch volume which has been a problem where. So with Kenneth Walker, even if it's a, if it's a bad offense, but I'm getting 17, 18 touches a game instead of like splitting with Charbonnet, there's an out there as well. Plus he could accumulate with the reception. So I think Kenneth Walker is a fantasy friendly profile. And I also think when you've got Breece hall, you've got Kenneth Walker. Those guys were both second round picks, very highly regarded NFL front offices remember that. Maybe they liked him as a prospect and they say, you know what, we can do it better than Seattle did. For better or for worse. NFL teams are very arrogant in their evaluative processes. And I think that there is teams that are out there, they're going to say, you know, if Walker would have been with us the whole time, maybe it would have been a little different here. So yeah, I love where you're at on Kenneth Walker. He's a player that got a lot of people in trouble last year in Redraft and in Dynasty. Now he's cheaper and I think you can cash in on that one.
- [26:15]
A
And I love what you talk about too, like different coaching tendencies and philosophies because Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, the way they play football, couldn't be more different than each other. Kenneth Walker is going to dance around in the backfield and he's going to hit those 80 yard home runs. But with that, he's also going to take the 12 yard losses when he's dancing around the backfield, can't find anything, cuts back three, four times and ends up taking a huge loss. Zach Charbonnet is going to drop his head and run through a nose tackle if he has to to pick up one yard rather than taking a loss. And I think what we've Learned from Mike McDonald and Clint Kubiak in Seattle is that they want that sort of running back, not the guy who's going to hit the home runs, the guy who's going to mitigate losses. So you talk about a guy like Ben Johnson, he likes those types of Running backs too, the guys that can hit home runs. But he likes pairing them up with a Jamal Williams or a Kyle Menung guy or a David Montgomery that he can use at the goal line. So I think a Kenneth Walker, Kyle Manungai backfield makes a ton of sense. I kind of jokingly said wherever Mike McDaniel lands. But that's also like we have seen. Mike McDaniel is willing to live with the losses that Devon HN takes, knowing that once he gets in a rhythm, he can pop off the 50, 60, 70 yard touchdowns. So I think that putting Kenneth Walker in a situation where he has a coach that understands that he needs volume, that he needs to find a rhythm. I'm not making a comp to Adrian Peterson, but if you go back and you watch an Adrian Peterson game, we know the highlights, the highlights are unbelievable. But Adrian Peterson took so many losses and when you'd watch him play, he'd get stuffed at the line of scrimmage, he'd take a three yard loss, he'd take a two yard loss and then he'd rip off a 50 yard play and then again getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage, taking a loss and then ripping off another 40 yard play. That's the type of guy that Kenneth Walker is. If you just consistently feed him, he will end up finishing net positive because of the big plays. So hopefully he can land with a coach that understands that. Theo, let's go on to the next one. We each have one more potential riser and then we'll talk about some guys who could end up being losers this offseason. But who's the last guy you think could end up being a riser?
- [28:04]
B
Yeah, I'll stay at the running back position and it's funny this, this could be like a post hype sleeper. But Chuba Hubbard had a a terrific year in 2024. Gets that big contract extension from Carolina, then this year loses all sorts of dynasty value. Looked like almost a dead asset at times after the rise and ascension of Rico Dowdle. But Chuba Hubbard was playing injured for a lot of the games he struggled in. And we've seen the season end exceedingly well for him. Had two touchdown scores in Carolina's near win over the Rams. Came back, he had that 20 point game in week 13. Like I think that the scoring down the stretch for Chuba Hubbard was disappointing. But I think there's a chance that this backfield becomes more Chuba Hubbard with Rico Dowdle leaving as a free agent. Rico Daddle even brought it up. You know, he brought up that he's going to be very selective about where he signs and all that kind of stuff because of the sort of the way that the touches ended at the end of the year. Not a great ending for Dowdle. Dowdle was out touched by Chuba, Chuba Hubbard significantly in this, this loss to to LA. Chuba had 13 carries, Rico Dowdle had five of them. Chuba Hubbard had four targets, Rico Dowdle had two of them. So it shifted towards Hubbard in the NFL playoffs and I think it's going to shift back to Hubbard when it comes to, to next season. Dave Canales offense has been extremely running back friendly and chuba Hubbard had 900 rushing yards in 2023, then almost 1200 in 2024. I think he's going to return to sort of that 900 plus range. And right now he's an asset that dynasty managers really could care less about. And I think you can get him for a song. And when we look at Chuba, he's 26 years old still and he has contract insulation. I don't think they're going to try to move off of him. Instead I think they're just going to use him.
- [30:02]
A
I love that call out. And Jeff Bell and I again, you know we, we just did a running back show and you and I are talking about a lot of running backs. So I keep referencing this show but we talked about the Carolina backfield at length and I think when you look back at it retroactively like at the time we were just like oh, Rico Dowdle, best running back ever to play football. Because that's what it felt like over that two week stretch. But when you look back at it through a fresh lens, he had almost no usage leading up to that Miami game. He was playing against Miami team that had, you know, in mid season like they had just lost Tyreek Hill, they had seemingly quit on the team and then he comes out very next week with that very outspoken revenge game against the Dallas Cowboys. So he got back to back opportunities to play against what at that time were the two worst defenses in the NFL. He was doing that on fresh legs while everybody else was feeling the wear and tear of the season. And then even when Chuba Hubbard first came back, people were so quick to point out the efficiency metrics between Rico Dole and Chuba Hubbard. But Chuba Hubbard was still coming back from injury. I don't think he was 100% what we saw over the end of the season, what we saw in the playoff game, them having A preference for toward Chuba Hubbard tells me that they do prefer him. Of the two, I think the one guy that kind of gets forgotten in this discussion is Jonathan Brooks. And maybe this is just me being a sucker. Still holding on to hope for Jonathan Brooks, but love the prospect coming in. I know he's had two ACL tears now, but I'm hoping that he can be a part of the offense. But still, I think that there are good complimentary skill sets here where Jonathan Brooks can be that home run hitter, Chuba Hubbard can be the early down guy, the guy who gets the majority of the workload. So I'm in complete, complete agreement with you on Chiwa Hubbard here. The last guy I want to talk about, Theo, they say the the definition of insanity is doing the same thing every single year and expecting different results. Well, I'm going back to Jalen Waddle for like the fourth off season in a row and this is one just when I look at it, Tyreek Hill, I think his time in Miami has come to an end. Tua is likely gone. We don't know exactly what's going to happen there, who they're going to hire as a coach. Maybe the coach thinks that they can help Tua, but either way, Jaylen waddle, still just 27 years old, in his prime, sitting on a massive contract, we saw in a little stretch what he could look like without Tyreek Hill. And from the time that Tyreek Hill went down until Jalen Waddle inevitably got hurt late in the year, Jaylen Waddle was the wide receiver 17 with a handful of wide receiver 1 weeks as well. When I look at the situation Jalen Waddle has been in, you know, a not great quarterback, splitting touches and losing out on targets at Tyree Hill. He's been in a bad situation almost every single year. But we saw this guy in his rookie season was an absolute target hog, pulling nearly a 30 target share. In year two, Tyreek Hill joined. We saw the target share slip a little bit, but we saw him lead the league in yards per route, run in yards per touch, being one of the most efficient players in the NFL. So now he has an opportunity to still be a target hog that we saw he could be as a rookie still be one of the most efficient wide receivers that we saw over the last few years. Health has always been the big concern with Jalen Waddle, but I look at now just a clean slate. No Mike McDaniel, no Tuataka Bailoa, no Tyreek Hill. This is the chance where jalen waddle still 27 years old in his athletic prime, can really entrench himself as the team's top weapon. So I am still going out and trying to acquire Jalen Waddle this offseason, like I said, for what feels like the fourth off season in a row now.
- [33:07]
B
Yeah, I think you actually get a window now for Miami Dolphins skill position players because of the fear in the Marketplace with Mike McDaniel. But yeah, on paper, I don't see why. I mean, you know, and obviously I'm a Devon H.N. truther believe in him. But Waddle feels like a player that is not going to necessarily struggle with a coaching change and a philosophy change more so than than HN HN a lot of the stuff for him with McDaniel, the manufactured looks. Also, I think HN benefited from playing with Tua Tungavailo a lot of those 8 little low a dot dump offs. So HN I think will be perfectly fine. I think he's a stud. But Waddle also is going to step in and have another really strong target share type year. And there's a chance we see a much, much better quarterback situation in Miami. There's a lot of players that could end up in Miami and be much more effective than Tua Tungavailoa. This is a team where I think that there's a lot of pessimism in the market where there actually could be optimism. And with Waddle, even if they take a wide receiver at 11 overall, you've got it look like Waddle's chances that he's going to still remain the overwhelming wide receiver one in this situation. So, yeah, I think it's another offseason where Waddles appropriately priced to give you a solid return on your investment.
- [34:32]
A
Yeah, give me a Malik Willis and Devon H.N. running a reed action offense with, you know, Jalen Waddle as the wide receiver one, I can, I can get excited about that offense in Miami. All right, let's talk about the not fun part of the show here, Theo. We're going to talk about some of the potential losers. We each brought two here. You know, we wanted to focus more on the, the positive aspect of the off season. But of course there are always guys who come out of the off season losing a ton of value. So who's the first guy that you want to talk about? A guy who could potential potentially lose a lot of value this off season?
- [35:02]
B
Yeah, so Woody Marks of the Houston Texans. I would say that the, that the. There was a lot of like real positivity with him this Year as a rookie, ends up with over 900 total yards, scores six touchdowns, had a bunch of solid solid games to him. But this is exactly the the sort of profile that we want to bet against. Woody Marks is a. First of all, he's 25 years old, so he's already heading into year two at 25 at the running back position was a day three pick, fourth round pick. And again I made the same pro argument with Devin Neal. The big difference that I'm making as a negative with Woody Marks, the big difference is Houston every year goes into the NFL's transfer portal, aka free agency, and brings in a running back. We saw it last year with Nick Chubb, before that was Devin Singletary, Joe Mixon go way back to David Johnson. This the, the franchise pretty much has a formula where they draft guys on day three and then they sign free agents. They drafted Woody Marks on day three, Dafted drafted Damian Pierce on day three and then they're continually bringing in free agents. This year it's it just a, a very deep free agent class. And Woody Marks, I think that there's a lot in the dynasty community that are looking at him as a guy who could maybe take a year to leap forward. I actually think that it's going to go the opposite. I think he's going to end up being the passing down back with somebody taking over as sort of a bell cow role this year. I'm not feeling very optimistic about my Woody Marks bags and dynasty. He's exactly the kind of player that I'd be looking to cash out on.
- [36:41]
A
You talk about them having, you know, kind of a formula that they follow in Houston and it always seems to be running backs who are aged, coming off of injuries with really good draft pedigree. Tell me Najee Harris doesn't feel like the most Houston Texans player possible this offseason. And to me, like that's the type of guy that I expect that maybe an Aaron Jones, maybe something like that. But they love bringing in these veterans that have pedigree. So I'm with you. Woody Marks, you know, there, there are some exciting things and I think that he can be a good secondary back, a guy who's kind of a home run hitter, but he doesn't have the, the build that I want to see to handle a big workload. I think he profiles to be that kind of change of pace guy, the guy who can come in on passing downs every now and then. But we have seen that this team really does like to have that veteran that they can lean on and they wanted that to be Nick Chubb. Like for the first five weeks of the season they were leaning on Nick Chubb before they realized that he just didn't have it anymore. He started picking up some injuries. They were kind of forced to go to Woody Marks. But we saw this with rookie season Damian Pierce, where the guy ahead of him got hurt. Damian Pierce was thrusted into a big role. Everybody got so excited about him that offseason and he just face planted the year after and hasn't been able to find any sort of role in Houston since. I think that Woody Marks might be a little bit more involved than Damian Pierce was over the last three years. But I am with you, not a guy that I'm trying to go out and get anywhere really this offseason.
- [37:54]
B
Yeah, I think you nailed it.
- [37:57]
A
Guy I want to talk about, and especially in Dynasty, you know, anytime you see a 30 plus year old wide receiver, people are going to get scared off a little bit. But Devonte Adams is a guy that when I look at his contract, when I look at how his production came this year, the situation, all these sorts of things, I don't know what you can even get in return for Devonte Adams right now, but a player that I'd be happily like trading away if I can get a second round pick in return at this point. His production this year was so incredibly weighed by touchdowns. He actually had a the fewest yards per game since 2015. That was his second year in the league when people were still talking about Devonte Adams after year two being a potential bust that they wasted the second round pick on him and he wasn't doing anything. This is the worst year on a yardage basis that he has had since that 2015 season. And we talked about a little bit earlier in the show, there's so much buzz about the rams potentially spending one of those first round picks. They have two first round picks this year, 13 and 31. And there's a lot of buzz about them taking in a wide receiver that they can use as a complimentary piece alongside Puka Nukua. And on top of that, Duvante Adams, he's gonna be 34 like he is already on borrowed dime. But really when you look at the contract, they very much so set this up to be a one year deal and they said it was a two year deal. But when you look at the guaranteed money, you look at the potential out, they can save $14 million this offseason by releasing Devonte Adams. So I think real life, he is still a good football player. He can move the chains, he can come down with contested balls in the end zone. But he was in a situation this year with Matthew Stafford, who is just peppering him with targets near the goal line, trying to pad his numbers on his MVP run. So this was the scenario for Devonte Adams. If he stays in Los Angeles, I'd expect a little bit of touchdown regression. I'd expect more target competition. But if he leaves and goes to any of the other 31 teams in the NFL, I think we're immediately looking at a big fall in value there. So Devonte Adams, great football player. I expect him to still be in the league for the next few years, but I do worry that his time as a fantasy asset is quickly coming to an end.
- [39:46]
B
He actually read an article today, was Devonte Adams talking about how he's still hitting consistent. He referenced miles per hour, where he's hitting these miles per hour numbers at 32, 33 years old that he's very, very pleased with. And he thinks that that's like a metric that he looks at to maintain this sort of consistent play. I think that there's a lot of reasons to sort of fade Devonte Adams here. I mean leaving Los Angeles would actually be crazy, especially with how pure he ran in terms of the touchdowns with Matthew Stafford. It looked like Devonte Adams had a chance at like a 20 touchdown season at one time before he got banged up. It's interesting. 13 overall. Just feels like I can do whatever the hell I want type pick for Los Angeles. They have two first round picks. They also have a ton of cap space. It's such a well run organization, the cap spaces. I was actually shocked by how much cap space LA has reflective to how much talent is on their roster. And they have these two first round picks. Then you've also got the fact that they're. And again, I don't think any of these guys are a real, real threat to Devonte Adams in terms of the target share. But you've got like Terence Ferguson, a player who I know you've been very high on. Dave. Terence Ferguson taking a step forward next year. Colby Parkinson, one year, one more year in the organization. Both of those guys with all like the 12 personnel, maybe a few more touchdowns go to them. You've also got Blake Corum coming on with Kyron Williams. So it's just a. Could the touchdowns shift slightly away from Devonte Adams and he ends up with like nine touchdown scores instead of 14 next year, which would still be a solid win. For a player his age. So I get it. He's a classic regression candidate. The only problem with Dynasty is it's league specific though, Dave, where there's some dynasty managers saying this guy's an auto sell. I don't care what he did.
- [41:38]
A
Right.
- [41:38]
B
He's 30. I don't want a 33 year old on my roster, period. So I think it's, it's, it's definitely league specific for this one. But if you have a chance to really cash out and get something significant for Devonte Adams and Dynasty. Absolutely. And I, I'll be very interested to see where the redraft ADP sort of settles in. I think he's probably gonna end up somewhere in the third round. Might go ahead of where he was last year too. So really, really an interesting one. I think it's a very interesting player for you to pick.
- [42:08]
A
And that's why I said I think like a second round pick. If I can get a second round rookie pick in return, I think that would be it for me. I don't believe in selling just for the sake of selling. I think there's some guys like Devonte Adams. I'll throw Derrick Henry in that conversation as well. There are some guys that like, if you can't get anything in return, just write until the wheels fall off. And I think you can do that with Devonte Adams. But I'd at least float it out there. Like if I've got Devonte Adams in a league especially where I know I'm not going to be contending in 2026, I will just send that like, you know, just, just blanket offer out to everybody in the league. My Devonte Adams for a second round big and the first one to respond with an acceptance can get that offer. I think that's still something that I'd be trying to do, but I, I don't believe in selling for like a fourth round pick just for the sake of getting him off your roster.
- [42:49]
B
Yeah, no, I love talk about the last one.
- [42:51]
A
We each have one more potential loser here. Theo. Who do you want to wrap up the show with?
- [42:55]
B
Yeah. So I think that, that a lot of the losers could end up coming from the power of this free agent running back class. And I've taken a little bit more broad answer here, but there's so many scenarios where guys could lose value coming out of this free agent class and guys in this free agent class could nuke backfields. It's a market where there's too many names available, where there's going to be Some landing spots that are uncomfortable for fantasy managers where maybe there's a takeover candidate where a guy's going to be signed and he takes someone's job. Then you've got a couple of these other guys who have steamed up who are upcoming free agents. Javante Williams this year regained a ton of dynasty value, but he also benefited from the system in Dallas. Averaged like 18 touches a game this year. Travis ETN is going to get a significant payday. We're really hoping that Travis ETN stays in Jacksonville though, where he can play with Liam Cohen. There's a chance that ETN moves way up in dynasty value, signs with a new team and is nothing like we saw this year. So it's really just a warning call to fantasy managers. Don't get really comfortable with any non fully insulated running back. There's a million names out there that could end up being the leader of the pack for a number of backfields. Then there's also a bunch of these guys who are quote unquote specialists that could really limit people's, you know, upside. I'll bring up Rashad White is going to be a free agent. He's had some success as a receiver. Kenneth Gainwell this year we saw what he was able to do in Pittsburgh. So I think this free agent running back class, it's dangerous in so many ways for dynasty values. Just taking a big sort of broad brush with this one. Many players could be in trouble because.
- [44:41]
A
Of this class and I was trying to pull it up right now, but we, we talked about it like, like all of the potential releases as well. It's not just the running backs, it's not just the rookies, it's not just the free agents. It is also the potential releases. This is just going to be a wild off season. I, I said it on the show the other day, but like every single off season, it feels like you just take like 50 running backs, throw them in a cup, shake them up and just pour them out on the table and then we figure out where they're going to go to and it'll be another off season like that. I'll wrap up with my final loser here. Potential loser, I should say. I hate the term loser.
- [45:11]
B
Loser faller.
- [45:11]
A
I don't know. Like, Garrett Wilson is not a loser is what I'm getting at. Garrett Wilson can ball. This guy's an amazing wide receiver. But I am so worried about the quarterback situation there with the Jets. Fields and Tyrod Taylor are as good as gone at this point. I think they're probably going to draft a rookie and there is reason to be excited about Dante Moore. But we also see that rookie wide receivers or rookie quarterbacks almost always struggle to get up to speed immediately, especially rookies who have that day one expectation of being the starter there. So we've been hoping for years that Garrett Wilson's situation can improve and I don't see it happening in 2026. On top of the quarterbacks uncertainty there, Adonai Mitchell, John Mechi, Mason Taylor, they've got better competition now than he has had during his time in the Jets. So we've got some young players that are out of the bag that are going to produce in 2026 as well. He's so talented. I love the player, but I don't see the situation getting better anytime soon. Unless they make some big splashy move like they bring in Kyler Murray, maybe then I can like sell myself on him or maybe if they bring in Malik Willis. But I think the expectation with them sitting at two is that they're going to draft Dante Moore and that is just a big bag of uncertainty heading into 2026. So this might just be me coping with the ton of Garrett Wilson dynasty bags that I have across all of my leagues right now, but I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel anytime soon.
- [46:33]
B
Yeah, I mean, Garrett Wilson, it's a really frustrating player because he's super talented, earned himself this really big contract with New York, and he's one of the league's top target earners. He's never had a full season with fewer than 147 targets in it. But then it's like the actual production for Garrett Wilson and what he actually like and, and the idea of Garrett Wilson, they don't always match up. So this year felt like a year where he had overwhelming usage. 14.2 points per game, 14.8 points per game in 2024, which was a big level up, even in the year where he was Rookie of the Year, AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year, which was a huge thing for him to win, still giving you like 12 points per game. So he's really suffered from the offensive ecosystem he's been in in New York. And are things going to get better next year? I don't know. Remains to be seen. If New York does something like trades for Mac Jones because they miss out on one of these guys, maybe Dante Moore goes back to Oregon, then maybe we can get really excited about Garrett Wilson. But there's a lot of scenarios where we're completely not excited. And I think that asking him to get to another level in terms of scoring production, that might be a tall ask, depending on who's throwing him the football. So you're looking at another year of 14 points per game, another year of Garrett Wilson not giving you sort of a legendary breakout type year. And I think that there might be more that you could get from him from a trade scenario than what you're going to get on the field from him.
- [48:07]
A
Well, I hadn't even thought about the possibility of Mac Jones signing with the New York jets, but thank you for planting that seed in my head. Yeah, I will be daydreaming about that for the next few months here, so thanks for that one. Theo, before we sign off here, let everyone know where they can find you. I know you are so busy over at Fantasy Points doing. I don't know if you're still doing Daily in the office.
- [48:24]
B
No, we're doing the show.
- [48:25]
A
Yeah.
- [48:26]
B
So I think.
- [48:26]
A
I think if you don't. You don't take any days off.
- [48:28]
B
If you're. If you're a Dave. Dave Kluge fan over at Football Guys, as you are, if you're listening to the show like Dave, I think you might record more than. More than I do, but we're pretty close. Fantasy Football Daily, I was dropping like 4 a week in season that slowed down, but we're still dropping like two or three a week. School of Scott. I record with Scott Barrett. That's a really fun show. So we're still going most weeks. Not every single week during the off season, but I'd say maybe three a month. Dynasty Life. That's my Dynasty show. And then the new show that I started recording is the 2026 NFL Draft podcast. Brett Whitefield and I are recording that every single week. You can find that anywhere you get your pods. You can find all my written stuff over at Fantasy Points, all my rankings over there, and you can find us on fantasy points, YouTube and also we just like yourself, we started up Fantasy Points dynasty, YouTube that just launched. So, yeah. Appreciate coming on with you today and check out my work over at Fantasy Points.
- [49:27]
A
Yeah, great time of the year to dive into some Dynasty content. So definitely check out what Theo's doing over there. Theo, I collab with a lot of guys, but it seems like every time you and I collab, whether it's on your show or my show, we get so many people that just, like, love when you and I get to talk together. And how lucky are we to be able to do this, to just talk about football and, you know, make that our living. But it wouldn't be possible without you, the listener, taking the time to tune in. So thank you so much for doing that. Thank you for listening to me. Thank you for listening to Theo. Be sure to check out what he's doing over at Fantasy Points and be sure to check out what we're doing next week over here on the launchpad with a new guest, as well as what Jeff Bell and I are doing over on the Dynasty Channel. Want to thank you all so much for taking the time to listen. We will see you soon. Foreign.
- [50:16]
C
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