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You can survive a bad pick in round three of your rookie draft, but you cannot survive missing on your round one picks. Today, Jeff Blalock and I, we're going to go through every single round of your dynasty rookie drafts. 1, 2, 3 Talking about our favorite and least favorite values in every single round. Jeff, let's just go ahead and start at the top here in round one and and let's start on a positive note. We'll get to the negativity a little bit later in the show, but who's your favorite pick looking at value in round one of your Dynasty rookie drafts?
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Dave My favorite pick in round one, somebody I've been trying to get. I actually tried to get him this morning. I tried to move up in a draft but JJ Zacharizen was unmoved by my trade offer and selected this guy. Instead. It's Eli Stowers, the rookie tight end who was drafted by Philadelphia. You know, when I'm in the back half of round one, which is where I think we're we're talking now, I'm looking for value that's relative to positional scarcity. If I miss out on the top of the board and you know, relative to this particular class, tied in to me is one of the more interesting ones and I think Stowers is a really interesting guy to get. I mean he is an analytics rock star. He led all FBS tight ends and the early wound right early round wide wide receivers in yards per out run last year and that included everybody but but Carnell Tate and Makai Lemon and he had the most first downs per route run among power conference tight ends in more than a decade. Dude also set the all time vertical jump and broad jump records at the combine for a tight end and he was a half an inch short of setting the all time record for anybody at the combine in his vertical jump. And he's otherworldly against zone and he's landed now in Philadelphia as the heir apparent to Dallas Goddard, whom the Eagles were willing to part with this season. Early on he signed a since a one year cap friendly deal. On top of that you've got Sean Manion as the new OC. He is a Shanahan McVeigh disciple as you know. So I'm expecting heavy usage of the tight ends and 12 personnel. And while he's not the best blocker, Eli Stower is not the best blocker. He is a really good receiver and they did bring in Johnny Mont to do some of the blocking responsibilities as well. So just to me, of all the guys who are kind of available after 105, 106, this is the one that I'm most interested in, the one that I'm trying to get in every draft that I'm in.
B
Yeah, I mean the athletic profile alone makes him a pretty alluring guy because we've seen like these are the guys that do break fantasy football when they hit these off the charts with the relative athletic score and that's exactly what Eli Stowers has. Now I'm going to put you on the spot here Jeff, and I don't know if you have a good answer for this, but Kenyan Sadiq or Eli Stowers? Because I am frankly a little bit surprised by how tight these guys are in adp and I've seen a lot of people that outright prefer Stowers to Sadiq. Are you in that camp or are you still going Sadiq ahead of Stowers?
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I have never been going Sadiq ahead of Stowers. Eli Stowers has been my tight end one almost from the beginning of my rookie analysis going back into last fall. I like his athletic profile better. I like what he could do with his hands a little better, like his versatility a little bit better. And the landing spots just confirm that now. So if they're, if they were, they were close for me. But now they're not anymore because Stowers has landed in Philadelphia where they love to use their Tight ends. Sadiq has landed in a place where there is a car crash of people in the middle of the field and no plan at quarterback and so I I'm out on Sadiq. I would not take him in the first round if Stowers are gone. Sadiq was left I would try to trade out if I were forced to take somebody I haven't had to make that decision yet. It would probably be the guy that you like that we'll talk about in a minute would be the one I would choose if I were were caught without Stowers. But Sadiq still on the board.
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Yeah and I've seen Sadiq has been a very polarizing player. I am still in on Sadiq just because like I do use draft capital as kind of my guiding light in prospect anal. I mean look tight ends drafted in the top half of round one over the last decade. Colson Loveland, Tyler Warren, Brock Bowers, Kyle Pitts, TJ Hawkinson all guys that had pretty quick paths to tight end one workloads. Now I know things are not great right now for the jets but three first round picks next year in a loaded 2027 class. I hope that they're going to become, you know, if they don't get a rookie quarterback at least in a lowering landing spot for some sort of veteran bridge. But yeah, I think Stowers is a great I'm not going to push back on Star wars at all. I just wanted to ask about the Sadiq or Stowers because that is naturally where a lot of those discussions end up leading to. But hey, before we get into my favorite picks or some of the least favorite picks that we have as well, if you're watching on YouTube, go ahead and give us a thumbs up. Leave a comment as well. That is the best way to help the show grow and really let's make it something that we just talked about. Let us know in the comments if you have a strong take between Eli Stowers or Kenyon Siddiq. We always want more information there so we'd love to see what you the audience has to add to that debate. But let's go ahead and jump into my favorite pick here and this is one that I'm kind of surprised to see him falling. And Jeff, I know you talked about the the draft that we are in right now, I just took him early but this is also a 2 quarterback 2 super flex league so quarterbacks valued very highly in a normal super flex league though Ty Simpson right now is falling to 1:10 and as I mentioned I use draft capital as kind of my guiding light and this guy went 13th overall to a team that has a pretty good history of hitting on draft picks and especially on rebuilding rosters. I think Simpson is just one of the best picks that you can make right now. Stafford is on an expiring contract. He's going to be 39 years old next year and seems like he's trending towards free agency. You know, that could always change. If he does get a deal, it's probably going to be a one or a two year deal. This to me is so reminiscent of Jordan Love when he was drafted by the packers with an aging Aaron Rodgers. People were quick to scoff at the pick. Talk about what a waste, what a waste of draft capital it was for the Packers. But Jordan Love now looks like a very good quarterback. With those years to develop, I could see Ty Simpson being on that same sort of trajectory. You look, this is a proven system. We've seen it from Jimmy Garoppolo, we've seen it from Jared Goff, and then of course, Matthew Stafford having his best years with the Rams as well. So I have belief in the system. I have belief in Sean. Sean McVay, 13th overall pick in round one for a quarterback, has a pretty good hit rate here. So falling late into round one, sure, there isn't a path to immediate playing time, but Ty Simpson is a guy that I think we look back at two, three years from now saying, what were we doing letting this guy fall that late in rookie drafts?
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Yeah, did you just curious this. Did you buy at all the narrative that Sean McVeigh was upset about this pick because he was looking for a weapon to help them win the super bowl now? And Ty Simpson only helps you win a Super bowl now if Matthew Stafford goes down with an injury. Did you buy that line of thought at all when it was live on Twitter?
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I am so glad that you asked that, Jeff, because I think that Twitter is so bad at understanding nuance and understanding how to read people. So yes, Sean McVay, I saw the videos. I saw Sean McVay on draft night where he looked mad, like he was angry, addressing. But things get taken out of context so easily. And you might have seen this, Jeff. This might go completely over your head. It might go over the head of everybody in the audience. But there's this meme that has been going around recently that Bad Bunny won a Grammy. I can't remember what the Grammy was, but I was watching the Grammys live and when Bad Bunny was announced as the winner of the Grammy. He kind of did this thing where he puts his hand or his face in his hand and he's just overwhelmed with gratitude and reflection. And it is this moment where he is living in like the best moment of his life, just overwhelmed with emotions. And now that meme is being or that GIF is being like memed as a reaction. Gif for somebody that is like fed up with and frustrated, where it's like, oh, like my kids won't go to bed. That's not what it is. Like, you can take these little clips out of context and turn them into something that they aren't all that to say, yes, people like psychoanalyze these Sean McVeigh press conferences. These little one sentence blips here and there. I don't know what was going on. Like, maybe he and his wife just got in an argument. Maybe his dog chewed up his favorite pair of socks. I don't know what was going on. But the fact that we see Sean McVeigh just not in his normal mood and everybody says, oh, he must hate Ty Simpson. No, I'm not buying into that narrative.
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I didn't buy into it either for a second. That management team there has been in lockstep for quite some time. I do get there may have been some consternation over when and how Matthew Stafford was informed of this development and that should have played into this. But I also, you know, it's funny, you said looking at these press conferences. No, they were looking at that press conference. If you've looked at Sean McVeigh's press conferences, he kind of looks like that all the time when he's listening to the question. And you know, I, being in, in my day job role, have done press conferences too. And I looked exactly like that when I was listening to questions as well. You were focused in on something and you're not paying attention necessarily what your face, your body language is. So I didn't buy it for a second. I think it's a great pick for the Rams. And I think sooner rather than later, we're going to find out that that was in fact a great pick for the Rams.
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And that's one of those things too, that the Internet just ran wild with and started making all of these huge assumptions. And I think that's probably why Ty Simpson is the value that he is. We. I might be totally overthinking this, Jeff, but like, if Sean McVay came out in that press conference like gung ho and just like, yeah, we got our guy future of our franchise, we'd probably be taking ty Simpson at what, 104 in these rookie drafts instead. Yeah. So I think that is probably the reason that we get such a big discount here is because of the weird narrative surrounding that press conference. But. All right, Jeff, now for the. The not fun part. Now we. Now we get to get negative and talk about the players that we don't like in round one. So let's hear your least favorite. Not your least favorite player, but your least favorite value relative to his cost.
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Yeah. Just one last little thing on Simpson. He was taken by a team that was contending and in the super bowl window in real life. I don't know that I would advise that for a Dynasty team that is in a contending window when you're really looking for assets that you can use right now. So I don't know if I would. I would take Simpson unless I was going to trade him or I just was deep enough that I could hang on to that. But that's the only, only caution I'd have for Simpson as a favorite pick. Let's do least favorite. Mine is Casey Concepcion, who last I looked was ADP of about 107. So he was the guy immediately after the big teardrop in, in my understanding, in my. The way I look at the Dynasty drafts this year and I haven't drafted him at all. You know, going into the draft, man, he was. I was having a discussion myself and some others is should there be a top four this year in terms of wide receivers, not a top three. And Concepcion would have been that guy. Even thought for a little while about putting him ahead of one of the big three because I really liked his talent a lot. But then the draft happened and now he's squarely in the next tier of guys and. And I could have just as easily here they have picked Denzel Boston or Omar Cooper or Chris Brazil at this position. Position. But I chose Concepcion because I want to express my disappointment in his where he got drafted and this seems like the best avenue for doing it. So I'm going to vent on it right here. You know, the good we could talk about. I mean, he's elite against man. He's probably the best separated in the class. He's versatile, he's young. His peak may be in front of him. And he went to Cleveland and. Yeah, he went to Cleveland, man. I mean, they, they. Yeah,
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sometimes it really is that simple. Just like the guy with Cleveland.
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This is not a, this is not a franchise that. That seems to have much of A plan. I mean, I, I liked this pick a little bit better for a little while, but then it just. Yeah, they. They got another weapon. And this may be a good NFL kind of movie. We as Dynasty and fantasy analysts often think of the world through that lens. And so this may have been a wondrous real football move for the Cleveland Browns to draft the way that they did. But I can't help but look at it in the sense that, you know, large chatter, myself included, this is one of the weakest draft classes for positional players in a very long time. And the jets and the Browns take two of those guys in the first round. That, yeah, that says something about those franchises as well as the class. So to me, man, 106 or 107, depending on your thoughts on Simpsons. Kind of the worst pick in a Dynasty rookie draft this year because you've missed out on the good on the big guys. You either take someone like a Stowers or a Simpson who we've highlighted, or you hope that somebody is in love with Concepcion or Boston or Cooper or Brazil and will trade with you. Because there's a wide range of outcomes for all these guys. At least one of them will hit. Which one, I don't know. But I. Concepcion has already kind of been dealt of a bad hand here
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and I completely understand what you're saying. And I mean, like, once you get past the first four picks, you don't really feel good about any of the picks in round one. I am a strong believer in just like when you're playing in Dynasty to invest in players over situations. And I do think the Concepcion is a good player, so I'm able to talk myself into this. Another thing that I like to do is try to find the offenses that everybody has just assumed are going to be very bad that might be just a little bit better than people expect them to be. And the Browns are one of those offenses that I've tagged this year. You know, I'm a big believer in Todd Monkin. I love the offense that he ran at Georgia. I love the way that he installed it in Baltimore. And now I do see a lot of similar pieces in Cleveland to what he had in Baltimore. You know, I can see Casey Concepcion being that Zay Flowers type of queen on the chessboard, moving them all over the formation, deep, short, across the middle outside. They've got Joe Royer there to kind of, you know, take some of that inline tight end duty where Harold Fannin can sort of be the Isaiah likely of it. I mean, I do see some parallels here and I think that for me and I had this talk with Sigmund Bloom a couple of weeks ago where he said it felt like they just went grocery shopping while they were hungry and just grabbed a bunch of things and threw them in the cart without a plan. I do see a little bit more of a plan here just based on what Monken has done historically where even going back to The Georgia like lad McConkey and then Zay Flowers and now Casey Concepcion. They always have that kind of like twitched up guy that they can move all over. So I do like Concepcion just because I'm a believer in the player. And I think that if Cleveland can write the ship, which yes, we've been hoping they can do that for about 60 years now, but maybe this is actually the year. So I think it's a fair value at 107. I wouldn't say that like I'm out by any means, but it does kind of sucked that a lot of the players we got excited about. You talked about Concepcion, Boston, Cooper, Brazil, all landing in less than ideal situations.
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Yeah, absolutely. You know, I am a believer that talent can overcome landing spot and we've seen it happen before. I hope it happens here. I'm not completely out on Concepcion. I'm just not out on him here at this draft capital, this draft spot. I've not yet been in a rookie draft where I've been forced to act on this in this position. And Concepcion is probably the best athlete of the program players left and I would probably take him in that situation. I just wouldn't be terribly excited about it. But I do think he has the talent and if the pieces are in place, he, he could get there. I just, I just would rather have my. Rather have Stowers or Simpson at this point than. Than Concepcion and I would not have told you that three days before the draft started.
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Well, let me talk about my least favorite pick in round one. And I gotta be honest, like this shocked me to see that his ADP was at 112. I'm looking at Jonah Coleman as kind of like a. A mid to late second round pick. But his ADP right now is 112. What are we doing here? Drafting a day three running back ahead of so many other players that I don't think he should. I mean you talk about it, Jeff, this wasn't a great draft class, but it was like a deep wide receiver draft class. So like so much of the talk about this draft class is like there are a lot of Good wide receivers. There aren't a lot of good running backs. I have 10 wide receivers ranked ahead of Jonah Coleman in my Super Flex rankings. That's Carnell Tate, Jordan, Tyson, Makai, Lemon, Casey Concepcion, Omar Cooper, Denzel Boston, Dijon Stribling, Jeremy Bernard, Jacoby Lane and Antonio Williams. And honestly I can make an argument to go with Brazel, Zachariah Branch or Ted Hurst ahead of Jonah Coleman. I just do not understand what people are seeing here. He was productive, but that's pretty much his defining trait. And we see a lot of guys who are very productive in college because they're getting the opportunity and it doesn't translate to the NFL. My comp for him, you know, having done the running backs for the football guys rookie guide was Ceh Clyde Edwards Allaire. A guy who can kind of do it all and is like okay at doing everything but doesn't have that defining trait, doesn't have one thing that really sets him apart. Jonah Coleman, he can break, he could break tackles, he can catch passes, but he does them all like right at an average rate, like nothing exceptional. And what really worries me here is that he didn't do a lick of athletic testing, just completely sat that out. We had big concerns about his athletic athleticism coming into the combine and into the draft. And then to me that's a red flag that he wasn't even willing to do it at the pro day. He's also on a team with RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins, you know, two guys that can do a lot in a backfield. And I think we've kind of jumped the shark with this whole like, you know, running backs in a Sean Payton offense are going to get a lot of targets. Yes, there are going to be a lot of targets, but there also is a cap to that. Like we can't just project 200 targets to go to running backs. RJ Harvey is going to get targets. JK Dobbins is going to get targets. How many are actually going to be left over here for Jonah Coleman? So I think the best approach with this class, especially with the running backs here, is just to wait and see who falls. I do not want to be the guy reaching for a day three running back in this draft class. And I sure as heck don't want to be doing it with one of my first round picks.
C
Yeah, Cohen's interesting and it's an interesting study in this class and the relative values of it because you and I both have Coleman as our one of a top four rookie running backs. But it's only because somebody had to be in that position. We don't have the ability to go RB1, RB2 and skip three through nine and start at RB10. That's not the way ranking works. We've got to slot somebody in there. I've got one running back ahead of him. You do not. We'll get into that guy in just a minute. But you mentioned Dobbins, you mentioned Harvey. You know, those are both really solid players already. And, and I want to talk Harvey for just a second because not so much because of the talent that I don't need to get into, but you were talking about draft capital earlier. This same brain trust drafted Harvey with the 60th overall pick last year in the second round and took Coleman with the 108th pick this year in the third round. And then you throw in, you say okay, but he's a pass catcher. Well, so is Jaleel McLaughlin. And then Tyler Bidet is still sitting there too and there's several others behind them on the depth chart that, that, well, I don't think will play a role or be a threat to Coleman. It's just more traffic that's there. So I'm with you, Dave. I do not see this as a, as a first round pick at all. Even in a draft as depleted of elite talent as this one is. And I, if I had to reach for a running back here, it wouldn't be this one, it would be the one we'll talk about in a moment. But otherwise, I mean, I'm looking at just. If I, I would get love If I had 101. I don't have that. So I don't have him. I would consider Jadarian Price in the first round if I were a contender because other than that, I, I don't like what his future trajectory looks like as a two down back. He has got a road map. This is Jadarian Price I'm talking about. Has a road map to a whole lot of touches this year.
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Yeah, week one and I don't know
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beyond that week one. So if you need immediate production from a running back, that's, that's. I would take him if I were in that situation. Otherwise would pass and then otherwise no running backs in, in round one.
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That's kind of where I, yeah, you got Jeremiah Love up top, Jadarian Price, whether you want to take him. I've seen some people saying he should go like as early as 103. I am definitely not there. I mean I, I would rather take Jadarian Price a little bit later in round one, I've got him as my 108. But even that, like if you want to take Sadiq or Sours ahead of Jadarian Price, I don't think it's that crazy. But somewhere you and I are both in agreement, Jeff. And one last thing I want to say here is like I think the reason because I've been trying to think like why is Joe Nicoleman getting drafted this high? And I looked in sleeper, he is ranked a little bit higher in sleeper than the other running backs. And you and I seasoned dynasty players. We know that you don't draft for position in rookie drafts. You take the value when you're doing these drafts in April, May, June, whatever and then you can use that value to address positions as we get closer to the season. I wonder how many people are just sitting there in their rookie drafts late in the first just saying I need a running back. They click on the running back tab, they see Jonah Coleman is the top name there and they just say, okay, well I guess I'm drafting Jonah Coleman without really realizing like who they're taking here. I think the only reason he's sneaking into that round one ADP is because some people this time of year are foolishly drafting for need but a place. You and I are in agreement, Jeff. Is that your favorite pick in round two? You have ranked ahead of Jonah Coleman. I also have him ranked ahead of Jonah Coleman. So this is a guy that both of us prefer and he has an ADP five spots behind Jonah Coleman. Talking about Nick Singleton because I almost went with him as my favorite pick in round two as well.
C
Yeah, so just a second ago talked about Jadarian prices having a roadmap to high volume immediately, but we don't know beyond that. Singleton is the other way around. I don't think he has a path now to high volume, but a year from now he could be in line for 200 or more touches and for several more seasons. Yeah, that unfortunate injury at the Senior bowl and that you know, he had not the best senior season either at Penn State even though he left there as the all time leading rusher. His fifth round draft capital is extremely disappointing as as a dynasty manager looking to invest in him. So I expect a slow start to his pro career. But you've got Tony Pollard who has been underwhelming for the last several years. He is getting the yards, he's getting the touches, but he's not doing a whole lot with them. You have Ty J. Spears Both of those guys are free agents after this season. They were both selected by a previous management regime than who took Singleton. So I do see him as having, you know that legitimate path to to a lot of touches. Now his vision's lacking but he is a great receiver, he is a good goal lines threat, he is a best I think in zone rushing schemes which is just happens to be what Brian, Dave all likes to use and you know he's got path to volume and to me that that is what's worth investing in. If I'm going to take a running back with a now second round pick, I want one with that path to touches. Singleton to me has a path to something but it's in a timeshare. Singleton however, I think has that ability as at least as you see it right now, as I see it today, has that ability to be a three down back with an ascending offense in 2027. And that to me is worth the draft pick now in that second round.
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Yeah, I think the three down skill set is absolutely there. And you talk about the fifth round draft capital, I can't help but wonder how much that was impacted by the broken foot that he suffered at the Senior Bowl. He hurt himself at a Senior bowl practice in Mobile, Alabama in March and then was unable to work out at the combine. And then that foot injury of course like that alone is going to push draft capital down. I think that Singleton had a chance to emerge as the number two running back in this class. I think that his testing would have been off the charts. This guy was a track star in high school. Just blazing speed that shows up on films. So we talk a lot about like how none of the guys in this class really have a defining trait. The defining trait for Nick Singleton would have been his off the charts athleticism that he just didn't have a chance to prove. So I see that round five draft capital but I'm willing to kind of put an asterisk next to it and say that he probably could have been a day two pick had he been able to go through the whole pre draft process. So I like him a lot. You're not going to get any pushback from me on Singleton. He's one of those guys that like this year there might not be a huge workload, he might be coming back from this injury and everybody heals differently. I mean he does have age on his side so it might be as easy as hey, this guy's 22 years old, he heals up really quick, he's ready to rock Week one. It might be kind of on ice for most of this year with plans set to 2027, but either way, as you mentioned, both Tajie Spears and Tony Pollard on expiring deals, I think they drafted Singleton with the hope that he could be their guy going into 2027.
C
They're on expensive expiring deals. Their combined salary for Pollard and Spears is north of $13 million. A fifth round draft pick salary is going to be less than a million and a half dollars a year through 2029. So that's an extreme, extraordinarily cheap way to invest in the position of having a potential RB1 and then ride that and use the money that is freed up from letting Pollard and Spears go to address other situations and other positions of need. And again, that locks in Singleton for a huge role if he can stay healthy. So to me, just a great value. It was a great value in the NFL draft and I think he's a great value in dynasty drafts as well.
B
And you see that with a lot of the late round picks did fall like the late round running backs. Yeah, they all fell to day three. But a lot of them do have pretty good paths to potential workloads and Singleton is one of them. So yeah, you're not going to get any disagreement from me here. I agree with you on Singleton, but the next player we're going to talk about, Jeff, this is where we're going to have some disagreements because my favorite pick in round two happens to be your least favorite pick in round two. So get the boxing gloves out. But before that, if you're listening on the show footballguys.com rookieguide of course we're talking here about rookies today. We did a huge rookie guide over here at Football guys. We released version one in January. We did an update for the combine, did another update after the NFL draft. We have profiles on every single rookie he was drafted. All the UDFAs just loaded with information, player comp stats, scouting reports, everything you could possibly hope for. Footballguys.com rookieguide Please, please check that out if you haven't already. We're lost.
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It feels like we're going round in circles. I'm gonna ask that man for directions. Hi there. We're trying to get to the state fairgrounds.
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Well you're gonna take a left at the old oak tree at this here road. Nah, I'm just kidding. Let me get my phone out.
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How is there signal out here?
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can switch therapists at any time. Sign up@betterhelp.com and get 10% off your first month. That's betterhelp.com Now Jeff, we're going to
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talk about Dijon Stribling and I don't know the best way to go about this. I don't know if I make my case and then you make your case and then we talk through it. But we both decided to talk about Stribling. I'm talking about him as my favorite value in round two. You're talking about him as your least favorite value. I'll go first and then we can hear your rebuttal here. Jeff to me again a lot of this comes down to draft capital. He was drafted 33rd overall and there is a trend in the NFL where we see them go for these hyper athletic, big bodied receivers at the top of round two. So what I did over the last 10 years I wanted to look at players that kind of fit this mold. Big bodied, athletic, raw receivers drafted between 32 and 50. So kind of the first half of round two and here's the list that I was able to come up with. Jaden Higgins Jury is still out. Keon Coleman Bust Jonathan Mingo Bust. Christian Watson finally seems like he's putting it together. T. Higgins Huge hit Michael Pittman Huge hit Chase Claypool he had one year but we'll consider him a bust. Deebo Samuel Cortland Sutton Michael Thomas. And then, you know, if you want to get like a little bit later, we've got AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Rashi Rice, George Pickens, some guys drafted a little bit later in round two. And what you'll hear in that list is like a 50, 50 split of bus and guys who have hit. But the guys who have hit have hit really, really high. Like these are guys who are difference makers in fantasy football. So I see the 49ers, they are just desperate for a young wide receiver to come in. You know, they lost Brandon Iuk, they lost Deebo Samuel. Right now they've just got like the husk of Mike Evans out there presumably to be their wide receiver. 1. We still don't know what Ricky Pierce all is going to be, if he can get healthy or not. So stribling could be a miss. But I think the upside here if he does hit is good enough that you take that shot in a weak rookie class. I mean, I've got it much higher than his ADP. I'm, I'm okay taking him as early as 11th or 12th overall just because at this point, like once you get through the first few picks of round one, I feel like you are in no man's land and you should be swinging for upside here. I am totally willing to say that scribbling could be a complete bust, but when I see this sort of athletic profile on a good offense with an opportunity to get on the field, that's a shot that I'm willing to take.
C
Yeah. You know, when I was refining the model that I've used to do the dynasty projections now for football guys, one of the things I did just to check myself was, was compare how I was ranking to the rest of my football guys colleagues on Dynasty. And you and I were the most closely aligned out of, out of the others with me. So I think we were both shocked when we were as far apart as we are on stribling. And I will say yes, he's got that potential upside. He certainly has the draft capital. And I can, I could see that. There he is, my wide receiver 15 in the rookie class. I believe he's your wide receiver five. And I think you have him around 33rd overall in the wide receivers, including the veterans. And I have him at 87th. And the only reason that I am as high as I am on him is because of that draft capital. Otherwise he would be my wide receiver 22 or 23 in this draft class. He is impressive. He impressed the combine. He is a great blocker and as you say the draft draft capital is going to give him opportunities to see the field. But the dude runs in a straight line. His routes are not precise. He is not good against zone. He was 20th out of 23 in the class that reception perceptions Matt Harmon charted in terms of success rate versus zone zone being the predominant defense run in the NFL. He's only average against man coverage. But he didn't see, I mean we saw a lot more of man coverage in college than he's going to see in the pros. His production's not great. If we, we can go through this in detail if you want. I'm not going to bore our, our audience with it now, but I can walk through his five seasons, one of which he only played four games. We'll thr out but he wasn't even the top receiver on his team in really any of those seasons. And if you throw out a 75 yard TD reception on a gadget play against Georgia, his stat line is not very good. He would have been 17th or 18th in the SEC and receiving yards. So to the draft capital and he goes to San Francisco. And I am not going to stand here or sit here. I'm actually sitting. I'm not going to sit here and argue that John lynch can't draft. He can't. But I'm not going to argue that. I heard you and Jeff Bell yesterday talking about that and so I'm not gonna, not gonna walk into that trap with you. But what I will say is that let's look at the role here in San Francisco. You've got Shanahan, you've got six position players behind that line of scrimmage. CMC and Purdy are two of them. A healthy George Kittle or otherwise. Jake Tonjas is a third one. Then you've got some blocking role that will be Kyle Use check blocking wide receiver which could be Stribling. But that's really four of the six positions that we've now accounted for. So that leaves room for two wide receivers. One of those figures to be Mike Evans, primarily outside. That's why they brought him in. And I think he still got the juice to be the, the number one there. If Ricky Piercel is healthy, he also plays primarily outside. And then you've got Christian Kirk who's primarily in the slot. Stribling is also primarily an outside guy. You wouldn't put a guy bad against zone in the slot very often. So that to me is a bit of an issue. So he may be that blocking tight end which Means he's on the field, but he's not doing anything from a fantasy standpoint. But barring a continuation of San Francisco's bad injury luck, particularly with Pearsall, where does Stribling fit in Shanahan's offense? That's going to lead to fantasy production. And yes, things can change. Evans and all these other guys may be gone in a year and he could have the number one role to himself. But where is he fitting now?
B
Yeah, and I think that's a very good question. And he might not have a fit right now. And so often we do see with these bigger receivers that it does take them a little bit longer to get up to NFL speed. That's why last year I feel like everything that's being said about Dejon Stribling, same things that were being said about Trey Harris, like a raw receiver. His best skill coming in as a rookie was probably his blocking. He's behind lad McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnson. But now Keenan Allen is out of the picture and now we're going to see Trey Harris step into a full time role in three wide receiver sets. So I think that's the hope. And I try not to look too much at situation. As I talked about, you know, things change quickly. Mike Evans goes down in training camp, Christian Kirk could end up, you know, something happens to him. Like there are paths for Stribling to get on the field this year, but really taking like a long term holistic approach at this, I can see a world where things are drastically different next year and that they go into 2027 with nobody except Piersol and Stribling and then we don't have any of these questions. So I see Stribling being a pretty good schematic fit for what the 49ers want to do. They're already talking about his blocking and you know, that was one of the reasons that I like Trey Harris as well. I noted it on Twitter this morning where, you know, everybody's quick to say, like, oh my God, Stribling, he's just going to be a blocker because that was the report that came out. But I actually like that, especially in a Shanahanian scheme, because blocking turns to snaps, snaps turn to routes, routes turn to targets. Like that's how you get on the field. And you can look at Puka Nukua, Cooper Cup, Debo, Samuel, Amon, Ross St. Brown, Robert Woods. Like there are a lot of players that carve out their productive NFL roles by doing that dirty work early in their careers. So I will be the first to admit that like the path for Stribling is narrow, like it's not a guaranteed hit. But again, just chasing the upside here. And that's what I'm looking for in this rookie class where I don't think there are a lot of safe bets. Give me the one that can end up being like a roster altering type of hit.
C
Yeah. So here's, here's kind of where I pivot from. I'm not, he's my least favorite second round pick to where I can see what you're saying and how I would use that. Whoever drafts him in the second round of your rookie draft will probably be very disappointed in that investment this year if it plays out the way that I think just from a role standpoint. And Dave, you say if it takes a while for a big bodied receiver to really find his groove in the NFL, that I might be able to get Dijon Stribling at some point during the season for a third or fourth round pick next year or some cast off kind of backup running back or receiver. And then I'm much more willing to pay that price than I am, you know, the 204, the 205, 203, even 208, 209 here because that, that's a cheap way of getting some upside. And so now it comes into that sort of a bet. Is, is, is the willingness, you know, the, the willingness to chase the upside on Stribling worth excluding other guys in this second round arena? Or, or do you want to, you want to take that chance that he's not going to be that great this year from a fantasy production standpoint, even if he's on the field 75 of the time, he's blocking half of that time. He's not out and out running routes and he's not catching balls. So can you wait and pick him up in the season from a disgruntled stribling investor? Obviously I won't get him from you, so I won't try that. And the leaks that we're in where you have him, I won't even, won't even make the attempt. But, but in other cases, other managers may be quite disappointed, may want to flip that for an asset that's actually doing something this year. I think that's when you go after
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Jejon Stripling and I think to put an actionable spin on that, like let's rewind a year and look at some guys that were in similar situations. Already mentioned Trey Harris, but I just talked on a show with Jeff Bell earlier this week, about my favorite year two buys being Trey Harris and Jay Higgins or Jaden Higgins for that exact reason. Like these are big bodied receivers that are still acclimating to the NFL and had disappointing rookie seasons, but other situations going into year two are much better. So where a lot of people paid up for Trey Harris and Jaden Higgins last year didn't get the production that they wanted. It could be here in year two. So yeah, I mean, this is what we try to do is like look years ahead about how trying to project how this player value could change. Now I think the only lapse in your logic, Jeff, if there is any, is like what happens if Dijon Stribling comes out. Looks like this freak athlete, week one, you know, has 150 yards and a touchdown in week one, then that door slams closed and then you never get any Dijon Stribling. So yeah, in a perfect world, you know, the value craters a little bit. You can get him at a discount this year and then he breaks out in 2027. But, but, you know, trying to, trying to build out how a player's career is going to go before they've ever taken an NFL staff is easier to talk about than it is to actually do.
C
I tell you, if I end up with Stribling anywhere and he has that week one output, I'm trading him as soon as I can for the high price because weeks two through 18 may not look anything quite like that.
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Well, let's go ahead and talk about my least favorite pick in round two. And I don't know what your take is on this one, Jeff. So interested to hear it, but I am not drafting any Carson Beck at this cost. Right now he's going as the 208 in rookie drafts and I assume some people are drafted in there with the hope that he might start some games in 2026. It looks like an open quarterback competition right now, so I'd assume that's the hope. But Jeff, again, looking at the draft capital here, you probably know the best quarterback who has been drafted in recent history in round three, right? Russell Wilson. Like that, that's, that's the one. That is the blueprint. I think everybody's hoping to recapture that Magic Carson Beck is nowhere near the quarterback that Russell Wilson was or level of prospect coming in. The other good quarterbacks to come in round three in the NFL draft since Russell Wilson, Malik Davis, or I'm sorry, Malik Willis, like, might be the best one, but the jury's still out on him. Like we've seen six good NFL games in his entire career. So we'll pump the brakes before saying he's the best. Davis, Mills, Jacoby, Brissette. I mean like there isn't much of a floor or a ceiling for these quarterbacks getting drafted in round three. And if I am drafting a third round quarterback, I again talking so much about upside on the show. Give me the upside. That's why I talked about Malik Willis as a good guy to target his rookie season last year. I talked about Jalen Milroe as a good guy to target. You know, guys that have this like game breaking rushing ability. You are not getting that with Carson Beck's profile. This guy doesn't rush the ball. He also doesn't have a big arm to push the ball downfield. I think he can be one of those guys that's just kind of floating around in the NFL as a solid backup and when called upon he can go out there and run the offense. But this isn't a franchise altering player. He doesn't have the rushing upside, doesn't have the big arm. He's got that elbow injury that still seems to be bothering him from the 2024 season. This is one where I am a okay going through my rookie drafts just acting like Carson Beck isn't even on the board. Just like blurring that name out in my mind's eye and just letting my league mates deal with it.
C
You just kind of went through all the bullet points I had here. You didn't say the word robo. Qb however good but not elite is another thing I had written down. I you know, our friend Matt Waldman who I look to a lot on the film side because he's much better at it and has more time for it than I do, notes that Beck pats the ball before he throws which is a huge no no in the NFL. But you know, you mentioned, you know, as a backup I could see him having a long career as a backup for 10 different teams in 14 years. The problem is that the first one is Arizona, which is a terrible team and if he gets to start in year one I think it's going to be a disaster for him. It could, it could break whatever's left of him. I hope he gets to sit behind whoever is Arizona's quarterback for at least a year before he's tried it out there. I am with you, not, not, not someone I would draft. He is both of us a top five rookie quarterback because again somebody has to be and that's too like you
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talk about like you know, the, the RB3, RB4 of the class. Just because like that doesn't mean that they need to. Like we're not perfectly folding these positions together. Like you can have 15 wide receivers between your RB3 and your RB4. And you can have 20 wide receivers, five running backs and six tight ends between your QB4 and your QB5. So yes, I mean like we, we've got to put these guys in a flat list of rankings. But Carson back a guy that I just have no interest in. But let's get to round three. Now Jeff, let's talk about your favorite pick in round three.
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My favorite pick in round three is Eli Raridan, the tight end from Vanderbilt who went to New England. Hunter Henry is going to be 32 this year. He's an unrestricted free agent, cap hip cap hit of about $12 million. He's also the dude who ran the most routes for New England. He had the second most targets, receptions and receiving yards and he had the most receiving TDs. And even if AJ Brown comes in and joins that party, the tight end is not going to go away as an offensive weapon or for New England. And Eli Raridan, I believe has been drafted to be Hunter Henry's replacement. He's a big, athletic tight end. He is a consistent blocker. He is also big play machine. He led all FBS tight ends with receptions of 20 or more yards last year. The analytics in the film I think are better than his production. But if you look at Notre Dame's offense last season, it all ran through two guys named Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price. The RB1 and RB2 of, of this year's rookie class. I mean they attempted, they averaged 200 yards rushing per game. So there weren't a lot of passing opportunities or need for a rare to make a lot of catches. Now on the, on the downside, you know, a couple of ACL tears in the same league, same knee a few years ago, which I don't like to see. He was behind Michael Meyer for a couple of seasons. That has not worked out particularly well in the NFL so far, but I think we, we may hopefully see some development there. Not the best catching technique either for Raritan, but I'm talking again about a third round pick. I think he's worth it due to the positional scarcity of value at tight end. This could be a tight end, one kind of upside in an offense with a young, soon to be MVP caliber quarterback. He could be a Tucker Craft or a Tyler Warren. Yeah, he could Also be a Cole commit or Luke Musgrave. But in round three, upside is the bet. Give me this tight end Eli Raritan.
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Yeah, I don't have any real pushback here. I think what you said early on that he's like the heir apparent for Hunter Henry. I mean that's kind of how I've been looking at this. Very, very similar players and we have seen that Drake may really does like to target the tight ends when he gets near the red zone. So I think that's the out here. I don't think Reardon is ever going to be one of those like elite tight ends that is just, you know, the, the focal point of an offense. Somebody who is doing a lot after the catch. I think his out is being a very good NFL player that's on the field for 100 of the snaps and can come down with 1012 touchdowns on any given sun or any given season. So I think that's kind of the. The out here. With Raritan again though, it's, it's a round three pick. It's really hard to poke holes in anybody's justification for taking somebody in round three and I think that he is a good value there. I've taken quite a lot of Eli Raridin in round three. My favorite here is another football guy's favorite. Jeff Bell and Matt Waldman. They love Skyler Bell and I do as well. And again we're just talking about it like round three, you're swinging for upside. And this guy is such a good athlete. Just an absolute dog after the catch. And I love the pairing that he has in this Joe Brady, Josh Allen type of offense. He's cut from a very similar cloth as DJ Moore and Khalil Shakir as a guy who can move all over the formation, do a lot after the catch. So to me it feels like a very intentional pick that they have somebody for the Future. You know, DJ Moore going into his age 29 season, Khalil Shakir, only a couple years left on his contract. We could see Skyler Bell kind of emerge as that guy in a similar role in the future. I don't think there's a lot of an opportunity here in year one. I think they still want to see what they have in Keon Coleman. They made the move for DJ More. Khalil Shakir obviously isn't going anywhere, but we're looking at a guy 98th percentile relative athletic score and you look at the history of fourth round wide receivers, could very well be a bust. Like you know, we see fourth round wide receivers, it's like a 1% hit rate for these guys. But still the upside here, if he does hit, just like I said about Dejan Stribling, it might be a narrow path, but that narrow path does lead to a very, I don't know, bountiful garden. What are we doing with this analogy here? Like there could be a lot of payoff if he actually does hit his high end range of outcomes. So I'm chasing that upside and Skyler Bell has a lot of it.
C
I like the pick, Dave. I like this a lot. And I, I, I see, I actually see that narrow path extending into this year. When we were talking about stribling, Keon Coleman was a cautionary tale about that type of athlete not being able to pan out in the NFL paired with an MVP caliber quarterback in, in, in a team that's desperately needing a wide receiver to step up. So for me, the first test for Skyler Bell is can he beat out Keon Coleman for playing time? And I think he can. And that's where that, that's where that upside I think comes in. Great. I love where, I love where Skyler Bell landed. I think that's just an outstanding place for him. The receiver room is open for the taking right now. It's just, it just is. And if he can flash the way he can at the combine, if that athleticism holds, if he can avoid injury, I think he can leapfrog Keon Coleman and be a regular part of that offense and a regular target for Josh Allen.
B
I think the one thing that would scare me a little bit about leapfrogging Keon Coleman, I don't even think it's a pure talent thing. I think even if Skylar Bell is like a better receiver than Keon Coleman, I think they do want Keon Coleman just as that like, you know, to steal the vernacular from Matt Harmon, that kind of sacrificial X role. Like he is still fast and he is big. So they're going to put a target on him and I think we're just going to see a lot of clear out routes where Keon Coleman is just riding the rail, running downfield, opening up more underneath stuff for DJ Mora and Khalil Shakir. So we'll see. I mean maybe Skyler Bell can fit that role, but I think Skyler Bell is more of that twitched up guy that you want across the middle of the field catching the ball, not just kind of pinned to the boundary. But and that's just to say that like if Keon Coleman is still getting snaps this year. That doesn't mean that Skyler Bell is a bustle. It's just that schematically, they might want to keep him on the field for what he does, even if it doesn't turn into fantasy production. But let's talk about. And I almost don't even like doing this, like, least favorite picks of round three, because we don't like any of the picks in round three. But when you are sitting there in round three, who's one? Jeff. That you're just scratching your head saying, like, what is this guy doing on the board right now? Like, this guy should be around for round five pick.
C
Yeah. Okay, so round three for me, you're looking to. You're looking for two things. You're looking for four upside, and you are looking to stay away from big bust profile. And so to me, Zachariah Branch has the ladder. He's got that big bust profile. He ran more than three quarters of his routes out of the slot at Georgia. And according to Ryan Heath from fantasy points, 43% of his targets came on screens, which is the highest percentage among any drafted wide receiver since 2015. And it's not even close. The next four on that list, Dave, are Ray Ray McLeod, Anthony Schwartz, Amari Rogers and Kadarius. Tony. Great doesn't translate into fantasy relevant production, not in the NFL, where screens don't make up a whole lot of offensive stuff. In fact, if we were to look at the last, the last year, just the best volume out of the screenplay in the NFL. It was Devo Samuel, 37 routes, 30 targets, 212 yards, one touchdown. That's 13 receiving yards a game. The best in half a season was Rashi Rice, who to this point has only played half a season. 27 routes, 26 targets, 147 yards, two touchdowns. That's 18 yards per game on screen passes. And that's the ceiling of screenplays in the NFL. So we now need Branch to be something he wasn't in college, which is a normal receiver. And the tape doesn't say that it's there. And so to me, this is somebody I'd much rather somebody else take that chance on. If Branch hits and becomes, you know, an all Pro bowl kind of wide receiver, great. My aces got cracked by a 7:2. That's fine. It happens every once in a while. I'll take admit it, take it and be happy for him. I don't like people to fail. So I hope that Branch proves me wrong.
B
He's not gonna, you know, I Hear everything you're saying. I will say we did a pre draft show where we talked about like our ideal landing spots for every single player. And I did say Zachariah Branch in Atlanta, I said, you know, I don't expect it to work out, but I said, if Zachariah Branch is going to pan out, I do kind of like the idea of him being in Atlanta where Kyle Pitts and Drake London are big body downfield receivers. Zachariah Branch, he's not going to be asked to do much more than run screens and he can kind of be that like safety valve for Tuataga Bailoa, who doesn't rush the ball at all, wants to get the ball out of his hand quickly. So again, not like a bet that I want to make, but this would be one word. If I did draft Zachariah Branch and he is in that role, kind of like a gimmicky Wanda Robinson type of role, I would probably try to flip him quickly because that's not something that I'd expect to maintain for five, six, seven years in the NFL. But he might be able to kind of like gimmick his way into some early career production. And I want to hold on to faith too, because this guy was the top recruit in his high school class. He was a five star recruit. He was ahead of Carnell Tate, he was ahead of Makai Lemon. Like, there were huge expectations for this guy because of his athleticism, but he just never really refined his game into something that, as you said, makes him like a real receiver. Right.
C
I mean, he's going to have to operate in the middle of the field. Right. And we can't, we can't put him on the outsides. So he's in the middle of the field on a team that last year had the second highest usage of 12 personnel in the league. Now, admittedly, we have a different offensive coordinator, so this might change. But they've got Kyle Pitts, who you
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mentioned we might see more with Stefanski. If we're being honest, we might even see more.
C
Yeah, I think so. You've got, you got Charlie Warner, right? And Pitts may be the only one of those guys who cash catches the ball, but the other two are going to have to be on the field a lot. So you've got, you know, Zachariah Branch is 5 9, 177. You know, Kyle Pitts is 66250, Hooper 64254. Werner is 65250. So he's 8 inches shorter and 75 pounds lighter than each one of those guys who do you need in the middle of the field sometimes so that Pitts and Bijan and others can do their damage down the middle of the field. And it ain't gonna be Branch. I think he's going to be a gimmicky kind of player. You know, if, if you're in a league that has return yardage points, I think Branch suddenly becomes very attractive. I see him as kind of like a Kavante Turpin, I think is who he was comped to in, in our football guys rookie guide. And so yeah, it's, I'll tell you, if you draft him and he has one of those games where he takes a screen 70 yards for a touchdown because somebody blew a blocking assignment, trade him immediately.
B
Yeah, I think that's pretty fair. I will talk about my least favorite pick in round three to wrap this up here. And again, it's, it's so tough. And it's not that I dislike Malachi Fields, but I do dislike that 304 price tag. I think he should be kind of late third round pick, you know, just not one that I'm crazy about here. You just look at the profile. Average athleticism, disappointing production profile. You already talked about it, Jeff. Like all we really saw at Notre Dame last year was just rushing the ball and a lot of that was because of Malachi Fields. You know, he was a good blocker and he was there to help out with some of those things, but just not a guy that I really want to be paying up for. And you can make the argument for it just because it really is like I'm just trying to trade back from this spot in the draft. You know, if you're in the late second, early third, somebody might want to take him there. And I think that's kind of where he deserves to go. But this just isn't an area that I really like any of these guys. I'd rather trade back into round four and throw my darts at an Adam Randall or an Eli Heidenreich. There's just kind of this like hodgepodge of really underwhelming wide receivers right here. And I see him kind of being in this John Harbaugh offense, being in that sort of Rashad Bateman role where you're just again, the sacrificial X's. We talked about running a lot of clear out routes, not doing all that much. I don't. And I was on with Matt Harmon yesterday and we were kind of talking about Malachi Fields a little bit and I said that I like Jackson Dart, but I don't like Jackson Dart's prospects of getting to his second and third read. If you looked at what he did at Ole Miss, it was drop back, throw the ball to Trey Harris. We didn't really see a lot with Malik Neighbors last year because he got hurt in his first start, but I think that the offense for Jackson Dart is going to be a lot of drop back, get the ball to Malik Neighbors. It's not going to be drop back and find the open guy. And that worries me a little bit. If Malachi Fields is going to be the second, third, fourth read on this offense, how often is the ball actually going to go to him? So, you know, it's not a terrible pick. I don't think anybody, I don't think anybody beside like after 110 is a terrible pick. You got to take your shots in this rookie class. Malachi Fields is one that I just don't really see the upside, so I'd rather go for guys that have a little bit more upside.
C
Yeah. Andrew Cooper on my podcast a few weeks ago, and he, he loved the term he used for, he said, this guy is going to be running cardio. You know, he's out there running routes, but nothing's happening. And our other buddy, J.J. zacharison, put fields in this group saying that, you know, this kind of athletic profile is rarely fantasy relevant, at least not for very long. So here were the, here were the names that he put them with. Van Jefferson, Josh Palmer, Jonathan Mingo, Keon Coleman, whose name keeps appearing in this, in this episode. Adnai Mitchell, Luke McCaffrey, Savion Williams and Isaac Taslaw. Yeah. Third round. I mean, there may be worse dart throws, but I think there's better ones. You said one of the names that I like a lot, Eli Heiden. Right. Yeah. Probably no real legitimate path to anything, but sometimes, man, you just got to pick a kid you could root for. And, and he's in exactly the right situation. And if there's ever, ever a question as to whether a player would show the dedication to do the work and be prepared and try to be better, it's going to be a dude from Navy. I mean, he's going to do it. So I, I would, I would go that route before I would take Malachi Fields around.
B
Yeah, we're, we're not going all the way to round four today. But Heiden Reich, I love his prospect of being the potential slot receiver on a team that doesn't really have a slot receiver. I mean, like, you looked like this guy was beating man coverage playing out wide at college like he is not a running back. So, yeah, I think we would be in agreement that Eli Heidenreich is the favorite of round four picks. But, yeah, that'll do it for today. Jeff, let everybody know where they can find you over here on Football Guys social media, the Dynasty Compass, all the fun things that you have going on right now.
C
Yeah, that's. Those are the things you can find me at Football Guys. Primarily, it's where my written content goes. I also have Dynasty rankings there and do Dynasty projections, which doesn't get seen. It's behind the engines that we use to customize rankings. It's one of the great things about Football Guys site is you can put in your league's rules and scoring settings and it will deliver a set of rankings that fits those exactly based upon our expertise. Those are the kinds of questions we can't answer as rankers, but the engine can if you put in those answers for it. You can also find me on the Twitters at Jeff Blalaylock and elsewhere. You and I, Dave, are dumb enough to use our actual names as our handles, so we're very, very easy to find. And then I'm also the host of a Dynasty podcast called Dynasty Compass Episodes coming out once a week. You could find us on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or wherever fine podcasts are streamed.
B
Absolutely. Check out Jeff doing really good work over here. We brought him on at Football Guys a couple of years ago, and he has just continued to expand his footprint with what he's doing over here as well as what he's doing with the Dynasty Compass. So, Jeff, want to thank you so much for your second time making it here on the Football Guys Fantasy football show, and certainly not your last. Want to thank everybody who took the time to tune in today. As always, if you haven't commented on YouTube, do that. If you haven't liked or subscribed on YouTube, do that. And if you haven't left a review on Apple Podcasts, please, please, please do that. I beg of you, every single episode. Because it is the best way to help this show grow. But want to thank y' all so much for taking the time to tune in and I will see you soon.
C
We're lost and kickoff's coming up. I don't want to miss the lineup. I'm gonna ask that man for directions. Hi there. We're trying to get to the stadium.
A
Well, you're going to take a left at the old oak tree at this here road. Nah, I'm just kidding. Let me get my phone out.
B
How is their signal out here?
A
T Mobile and US Cellular are coming together so the network out here is huge. We get the same great signal as the city, saving a boatload with benefits. And there's a five year price guarantee too. Okay, here's the turn.
C
Actually, can you pull up the way to a T mobile store?
A
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B
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Host: Dave Kluge
Guest: Jeff Blalock (Footballguys staff)
In this episode, Dave Kluge and Jeff Blalock break down dynasty rookie draft strategies by analyzing their personal picks for the best and worst values in every round (Rounds 1–3) of the 2026 rookie class. Drawing from the Footballguys rookie guide, personal rankings, and industry insight, they debate player landing spots, value versus cost, and offer actionable tips to help dynasty managers maximize rookie draft returns.
Tone: Analytical, direct, and conversational with healthy debate; leans on industry data, personal anecdote, and actionable advice.
Draft Position: Late Round 1 (after 1.05/1.06)
Key Points:
"He had the most first downs per route run among power conference tight ends in more than a decade." – Jeff ([02:20])
Comparison with Kenyon Sadiq: Favors Stowers over Sadiq due to situation and skill (04:09).
Current ADP: Falling to 1.10 in superflex drafts
Key Points:
"We might look back 2–3 years from now saying, what were we doing letting this guy fall that late in rookie drafts?" – Dave ([07:37])
Narrative Watch: (08:10) Skeptical of internet's take that McVay was “mad” about pick. Both agree narratives are overblown; coach demeanor doesn't reflect on Simpson’s outlook.
Current ADP: 1.07
Key Points:
"This is not a franchise that seems to have much of a plan ... 106 or 107, depending on your thoughts on Simpson, kind of the worst pick in a dynasty rookie draft this year." – Jeff ([12:59])
Dave’s response: More optimistic about talent-over-situation, notes Todd Monken’s potential as OC ([14:22]). Sees Concepcion as a possible Zay Flowers-like versatile weapon.
Current ADP: 1.12
Key Points:
"I do not want to be the guy reaching for a day three running back in this draft class. And I sure as heck don't want to be doing it with one of my first round picks." – Dave ([18:51])
Both prefer Nick Singleton (Round 2) to Coleman at value ([23:00]).
Current ADP: Early/mid Round 2, five spots behind Coleman ([21:30]).
Key Points:
"To me, just a great value. It was a great value in the NFL draft, and I think he's a great value in dynasty." – Jeff ([26:20])
Current ADP: Round 2
Key Points:
"When I see this sort of athletic profile on a good offense with an opportunity... that's a shot that I'm willing to take." – Dave ([31:45])
Jeff's Counterpoint:
Current ADP: 2.08
Key Points:
"Just have no interest in ... going through my rookie drafts acting like Carson Beck isn't even on the board." – Dave ([41:48])
Jeff’s Agreement: Adds that Beck “pats the ball,” likely career backup, especially worrisome if forced to start early on a bad team ([42:21]).
Key Points:
"In round three, upside is the bet. Give me this tight end Eli Raridan." – Jeff ([45:51])
Key Points:
"That narrow path does lead to a very, I don't know, bountiful garden... if he actually does hit his high end range of outcomes." – Dave ([45:51])
Jeff’s Response: Thinks Bell could beat out Keon Coleman for early snaps. Likes where Bell landed and his fit in WR room ([48:07]).
Key Points:
"This is somebody I'd much rather somebody else take that chance on. If Branch hits...great—my aces got cracked by a 7-2." – Jeff ([51:58])
Dave’s Response: Acknowledges the “gimmicky” role but sees brief window for production if things break right ([52:16]).
Key Points:
"I'd rather go for guys that have a little bit more upside." – Dave ([56:53])
Jeff’s Response: Highlights consensus that profiles like Fields rarely turn into long-term fantasy assets ([57:07]).
On Ty Simpson’s discount due to social media narrative:
"If Sean McVay came out ... saying 'yeah, we got our guy, future of our franchise,' we'd probably be taking Ty Simpson at what, 1.04 in these rookie drafts instead." – Dave ([10:27])
On late 1st round values:
"I do think talent can overcome landing spot, and we’ve seen it happen before. I hope it happens here." – Jeff, on Casey Concepcion ([16:18])
On RB appetite in rookie drafts:
"You and I, seasoned dynasty players, we know that you don't draft for position in rookie drafts." – Dave ([21:30])
On Stribling’s upside, risk:
"Blocking turns to snaps, snaps turn to routes, routes turn to targets... that's how you get on the field." – Dave ([35:23])
Follow the hosts and read more at Footballguys.com. For deep-dive rookie guides and projections customized to your league, check out their rookie guide.