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The Fantasy Football HOT START Candidates Nobody's Talking About
00:46:25
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- [00:00]
Dave
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Joey
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Dave
Ugh. I love my VRBO for the location.
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Joey
Good reason.
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Dave
Oh and for the pool. Cause pools are cool. I feel the love book of vrbo
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Joey
that's loved by guests if you know you verbo.
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Dave
And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on
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Joey
car insurance with Liberty Mutual.
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Dave
Even if it means sitting front row at a comedy show. Hey everyone, check out this guy and his bird.
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Joey
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Dave
We're married. Me to a human, him to a bird.
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Joey
Yeah, the bird looks out of your league anyways. Get a quote@liberty mutual.com or with your local agent.
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Dave
Liberty, Liberty.
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Joey
Liberty. Liberty.
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Dave
You should not be drafting your fantasy football teams based on full season projections. Every single year there are players that get out the gate hot and and help fantasy managers get that early lead in the standings. And today Joey Wright and I, we are going to look at some players after the schedule release came out who have those nice starts to the season and can help you get a good start in your fantasy football league. Joey, let's start with some quarterbacks. Here you have a quarterback that you identified with a very nice schedule to start the season. Let's hear about Jackson Dart.
- [01:26]
Joey
Yeah, I absolutely love Jackson Dart. This season especially it started off from week four until the end of the fantasy season last year he was the QB8, at least 50 rushing yards or a touchdown on all but one of his starts. So it gives you a nice floor there. 18 or more fantasy points and 10 of those 12 starts last year. And there's actually increased reason for optimism this year with John Harbaugh coming in. We've seen what he did in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson so hopefully some of that magic dust that he can sprinkle on to Jackson Dart as well. Transfers over first five weeks of the season though, we're looking at the beginning of the season and just let's take a side step for a second. The way that I really like to look at the beginning of the season, I build this little sheet where I look at last year, the points, the defenses were allowed, the fantasy points, defenses were allowing to opposing positions and it really helps me signify like what starts of the season I like and that's what really stuck out with Jackson Dart for me. First five weeks of the season there's not really a truly tough quarterback matchup games against Dallas and Washington. Who gave up the third and most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. It's the third easiest start of all the quarterbacks on average. But what I like most about it for Dart, we mentioned that rushing upside. He has these same teams struggled against the rush last year. So if you're looking at Jackson Dart and you're wanting just a nice safe floor with a huge super high upside, I think Jackson Dart is a fantastic start for your season.
- [02:49]
Dave
Yeah, couldn't agree more. I have talked about Jackson darts so much this offseason as being one of my favorite targets and started to drool a little bit when I saw that schedule come out. I want to talk about some giants as well that I like because of that early season schedule, but also like you talk about John Harbaugh, reason to be optimistic there. We of course saw what he did in Baltimore and then bringing in Isaiah, likely bringing in Pat Ricard. They're going to have a very similar system here where it's going to be a lot of jumbo sets, a lot of design quarterback rushing. And I know Matt Nagy is there. Some people aren't crazy about the Matt Nagy, but we got to remember that when Matt Nagy was coaching a young Mitch Trubisky in Chicago got him to over 400 yards rushing, a lot of designed rushes as well. So I think when you look at Dart, a rushing quarterback with John Harbaugh who likes rushing quarterbacks, Matt Nagy who likes rushing quarterbacks, it's really easy to see the upside here where Jackson Dart could have a six, seven, maybe even an 800 yard rushing season and that could all start early in the year as they are continuing to open up the playbook. So I love that one, Joey. We're going to talk about more players that we like having these and schedules that we really want to attack. But before we do that, if you're watching on YouTube, please give us a thumbs up. If you're watching and you are not subscribed, please subscribe. And if you are watching and you want to leave a comment, Joey, you want to go with dart as a word that the YouTubers can use. I feel like there's a lot of different ways you can go with the word dart. So whether you're talking about Jackson dart or you want to work in something a little bit different, let us know that you're listening here by leaving the word dart in your YouTube comment. But let's go ahead and talk about another quarterback here. Joey, this is another one that, you know, I did the same thing as you. We both kind of built out our own models and then looked at each other's players and we said, yeah, that checks like your info matches my info. So Jackson Dart was a guy that was on my radar. But I'm going to talk about CJ Stroud and if you look just a cake schedule to start the season Now I'm looking at Fantasy Points allowed two quarterbacks based on last year's numbers, Week 1 against Buffalo is the toughest matchup he's going to have. They were 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last year, but that could potentially end up being a shootout where Josh Allen can hang some points on this good Texans defense. But after week one, Cincinnati allowed the seventh most points to quarterbacks, then Indianapolis, who averaged 15th most quarterbacks allowed. And then in week four, he gets to face off against Dallas, who gave up more points to quarterbacks last year than any other defense allowed. This is Year two going into Nick Haley's system. So we've got a little bit of continuity here for C.J. stroud going into this 2026 season. And I know last year wasn't great, but if you remove the game that he left early with an injury, his 18.6 fantasy points per game actually would have t Jacoby Brissette. So I think his year last year wasn't quite as bad as people make it out to me. Big improvements in the offensive line this year, and we know that was the big struggle last year with Houston. They signed Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller. They drafted Kaylin Rutledge. They've got three new guys on that offensive line that should help them have a little bit more protection this season. And last year it was just kind of a disaster scenario, right? Nico Collins was hurt. Christian Kirk just looked like he had nothing left in the tank. There was no threat of a run game. They had two rookies trying to get up to speed in the offense as rece, and going into 2026, things should be a little bit better. We already talk about David Montgomery a lot on this show. I'm excited about that addition Year two for Jaden Higgins and Jalen Noel. Tank Dell is potentially coming back this year. So I think there are a lot of quarterbacks this year that are entering new and uncertain situations. With CJ Stroud, we're seeing him enter the same system with improved pass catchers, improved offensive line and a soft schedule to start the year. I know a lot of people aren't going to want to draft C.J. stroud this year. But I think you can look at that early season schedul and look at him as kind of that early guy that you can plug in while you wait for a higher ceiling quarterback to emerge.
- [06:37]
Joey
Yeah, Stroud is the kind of player that I've kind of been preaching on the show of. Just like with the late round quarterbacks, like you see this beginning of the season matchup, the schedule and it really appeals to you and these are the kind of guys to go out and get to start your season off and then if he keeps it going, you have a QB one. Two of the things you brought up that I really like the offensive line, like the offensive line being improved is going to help this offense so much. But I think the main thing is actually having a running back they can depend on that actually has the better skill set than we were. I think they were all waiting on Joe Mixon to come back or they knew he was never going to come back last year. But that's going to open this offense up. I think Stroud's going to have fantastic start to the season. So I like that call out a lot.
- [07:18]
Dave
And you know, we might talk a little bit more about David Montgomery later on this show. I don't want to give away too much, but you know, a lot of times these quarterback schedules that work well for quarterbacks also work well for running. But I don't want to spoil the end of the show too much here. Joey, let's talk about some running backs. Then we're going to talk about a wide receiver we like. Then we're going to talk about a tight end that we like. And then we're doing the same thing we did last week where we each have a flex position. Two flex positions actually. So a lot more players to discuss. But let's talk about your favorite running back. Looking at early season schedules real quick,
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Joey
I want to derail. Did you buy David Montgomery Bears jersey when he was there?
- [07:53]
Dave
I did not, no. I actually wasn't the biggest fan of Dave Montgomery when he was in Chicago. You know, there were some flashes here, but it was once he went to Detroit and started playing behind that good offensive line that we really saw him develop into the player he was. He just never really had much of an opportunity as a Chicago Bear. A lot of making magic behind a poor offensive line, but seeing him run behind a good line in Detroit really kind of showed the player that he could be. And hopefully this Houston offensive line can be a little bit closer to what they had in Detroit. Not what he had early in his career in Chicago.
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Joey
I get it. Like I was just curious. Sorry player. I want to talk about running back Amaran Hampton. We were kind of robbed of that full rookie breakout season last year from Hampton. There's flashes of it. We basically got a bookended fantasy season from him with a great start to the season and a great end, but an eight week absence in the middle due to a. Was it an ankle fracture? High ankle sprain. So he's through that now. First five weeks last year. 13.4 fantasy points per game. So is the RB14 a really good RB2 upside? If you're looking for there the playoff run though 3, 3 out of the 4 games with at least 414 fantasy points. Use the RB16 fantasy points per game on the season. But there's a lot more optimism for 2026. I mentioned optimism with Dart. There might even be more optimism for Hampton. We've got Mike McDaniel coming in. We saw what we did with Devon. A chain back to back top five running back seasons. Hopefully the heap employees Hampton the exact same way. We get the kind of a similar workload there with them, but Chargers open the season. Arizona, Las Vegas, Buffalo. All three of these teams allowed at least 23.6 fantasy points to opposing running backs. It's a fantastic start to the season for the Chargers right from the jump. It's a schedule that I hope is going to kind of be the jumping off point for him to be an RB1. I've got Hampton ranked as my RB7 ahead of Ashton Genti and Saquon Barkley.
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Dave
Yeah, I've got him as my RB6 ahead of both of those guys as well. I prefer him even to James Cook, which is I think where I lose some people. But man, Hampton, we just look at this guy like 225 pound frame off the charts athleticism. Last year we saw kind of a worst case scenario like the the the tackles were injured for the Chargers. Omarion Hampton was dealing with a broken ankle himself like it was about as bad as things could have been. But I'm still a big believer in Hampton excited about what this off look like with the addition of Mike McDaniel and some of the creative play calling. And another thing about Mike McDaniel, if you look at the offense that he wanted to run in Miami, it felt like he was never able to fully hit that offense because of the limitations with Tua Tagavalo's arm. You know they had the speed there with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. But they couldn't really open the offense vertically. My goodness. Now you look at the addition of Brendan Thomas Thompson in the draft. You've got this big arm with Justin Herbert. We could see this. Mike McDaniel offense ascended new heights now with a quarterback with a big arm. So everything we want to see here. I absolutely love this call out. Amarian Hampton is a guy I've got right now in the same tier as Chase Brown. Like, I think these guys should be early second round picks, but they are regularly falling late into round two, sometimes even into round three. And looking at that early season schedule, there's not going to be an opportunity to buy low on Omarion Hampton this year. He can start off hot and immediately be one of the most valuable running backs in fantasy football.
- [11:15]
Joey
I agree with you, Dave. I want to point something out. I've noticed this on a few shows we've done now and I'm going off script a lot today and I apologize, Dave, not script, but, you know, I'm just going off the rails. Every time I mention a player, you seem to be like, hey, I got him one spot higher than you, Joey. And I just feel like, you know, I need to call you out on that because in the comments over on YouTube, please leave a few comments. You know, they say Joey doesn't push back on Dave enough. Well, I'm gonna push back on this. I feel like you're just looking at my rankings and you're just moving your players one spot higher.
- [11:43]
Dave
Where do you have Jackson dart? I'm curious on that one because I have this, my QB5, and I doubt you've got him higher than that.
- [11:48]
Joey
Yeah, I mean, we're talking about a
- [11:52]
Dave
lot of my guys on today's show and another one of my guys that I've talked about quite a bit this offseason and a guy that I am way ahead of consensus on. We already talked about the Giants, right, talking about Jackson dart and his good early season schedule. Well, guess what? That bodes well for Tyrone Tracy as well. And it's more than just the schedule for Tyrone Tracy. Last year, Camp Scatterboo had a terrible, terrible injury. We're talking about a severe open tibia fracture, a dislocated anchor, a fractured fibula and a ruptured deltoid ligament. Now, I'm not a doctor, but bones sticking out of skin, like, you know, just kind of skin holding a injury together. Like this was a bad, bad injury. And I think there's hope that he returns and is healthy and is the player who was before injury, and I want to see that as well. But the reality is Camp Scatter Boo might not be one week one, and they might have to lean on Tyrone Tracy a little bit more than they did. And you look at that opening season schedule, my goodness. Week one against Dallas, they gave up the fifth most points to opposing running backs last year. The rams in Week 2, 21st most points against Rams, but they were fifth in receiving yards allowed to running backs, which is where Tyrone Tracy gets so much of his production. In week three against Tennessee, they were 19th against running backs. Not a great matchup. But then in week four, Arizona was third. So we've got two top five matchups in the first four weeks for Tyrone Tracy against opposing defenses in points that they allowed to running backs. And I've talked about it a lot. I'm a big fan of Tyrone Tracy, just the type of player he is. Former wide receiver, great athletic profile, a very efficient 2025 season as well. He was 12th in target chair and 22nd in yards per touch. A lot of that production came later in the year, though, after the Scatter Boo injury when people didn't really see that it was happening. And last year, you know, we've already talked about this with Jackson Dart a little bit, but this is going to be a very similar offense to what we have seen in years past from Baltimore. And last year the Ravens were dead last in pass rate over expectation. So they want to establish the run. They're going to get the ball to Tyrone Tracy a lot early in the season. This, to me, when you look at the opportunity behind an improved offense against a soft schedule, I don't think it's crazy to say that Tyrone Tracy has RB1 upside through the first month of the season. And right now you can draft him as your RB4.
- [14:13]
Joey
Yeah, absolutely. With Scatter. But you're basically laid out why I'm kind of fading away from Scatterboo at his current ADP. It's. I think he's up at around like RB24 and that's just even. It sounds like, okay, bottom line, RB2. No. Like he's still in that dead zone for me and so I'm gonna avoid him. But Tyrone Tracy, like, he came back at the end of last season and he was coming off an injury as well. Correct? Right.
- [14:39]
Dave
Yeah. I mean, he's dealt with quite a few injuries throughout his career. Yep.
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Joey
But what we saw the year before that was our. It was kind of shocking when they reached for Scatterboo and they started him because Tyrone Tracy looks so great. I think he's definitely still part of this offense, so I like the call out there for him.
- [14:53]
Dave
Yeah, and Scatter Boo. You know, I'm, I'm rooting for him. He's a very fun player and I want to see him look like the player he was early in the season. But this is one where I'm just like, like given the injury and the recovery timeline for that injury, I am not really drafting him all that much in 2026. If he gets off to a slow start, I'll try buying him in Dynasty in hopes that he can recover for 2027. But that was a brutal injury that I'm expecting to really zap away some of his explosiveness. So because of that, you know, if I'm fading, Scatter Boo. But I want to buy into this offense. Getting Tyrone Tracy almost ten rounds later is a really nice entry point into this backfield for a much, much cheaper cost. Joey, let's talk about some wide receivers.
- [15:35]
Joey
Yeah, Chris Olave. I've been kind of banging the drum for Tyler Schuck all off season so far on the show and Crystal Lobby is a big reason why. Wide receiver 6 last year and he's currently being drafted as the wide receiver 12 so a little bit lower than where he probably should be going. Coming off career highs and targets, yardage, touchdowns, interceptions. There was a career high for Chris Olave to need to get. He pretty much got it last year. A strong finish in 2025. Averaged 27.7 fantasy points per game in the playoffs and before looking I was like, oh, he had to be the wide receiver one. No, Pukuman Kuis was still the wide receiver one during that stretch, but still a really solid wide receiver too. Performance there during the fantasy playoffs. This is why you always should check your facts, folks, because I would have probably just ran with that like, oh, nobody did better than that. But no, no, Puka did. Today is kind of about starts though, not just about the fantasy finishes. What I'm expecting is a strong one for Olave Matchups versus the Lions, Ravens, Raiders and Falcons to open the season. All bottom 12 against wide receivers in 2025. At least 34.1 fantasy points per game to the position by each of those teams. Now the arrival of Jordan Tyson. Some people are kind of fading away from a lobby because of that, but that actually just kind of makes me like a lobby a lot more. I think he's going to get a lot less targeted off defenses headed his way. Like I said, I've Been recommending Chuck. Chris Olavi is a big reason why. It's versatility paired with this kind of cookie cutter. First four games makes him a wide receiver. I'm drafting as early as the front end of the third round.
- [17:04]
Dave
Yeah, I like Chris Alave a lot. I like Jordan Tyson a lot. And I do feel like we kind of like fall into this trap sometimes when like a, a new receiver is brought in. We can make the argument either way. We can either say like, oh, this is bad for a lobby. Jordan Tyson's there and he's going to take targets. We could also say, hey, this, this is really good for Chris Olave because Tyson is going to take some of the pressure off him. The reality is we'll know it when we see it. But looking at the offense that Kellen Moore ran in Philadelphia, we did see that A.J. brown and DeVonta Smith were both able to eat. You know, they cohabitated very well in that Kellen Moore offense together. So I do tend to lean that way that I think Jordan Tyson having that extra guy there will benefit Chris Olave. But I just want to address the fact that you can kind of make that argument going either way depending on how you're feeling there. But excitement for the Saints as a whole year two with Kellen Moore and reason to buy into what we saw from Tyler Shuck late in the season.
- [17:56]
Joey
Yeah, I had to wear my Bucks hoodie because I was told by my Buccaneers friends that I've been talking way too much about the Saints this off season. So I needed to show them like, my allegiance is still with Tampa Bay. But no team in the NFC south scares me more than New Orleans, to be honest with you. Like Carolina, Atlanta don't really concern me that much. But New Orleans, I really think they have something going on down there.
- [18:18]
Dave
And for what it's worth, Joey, I think that when you're able to identify good fantasy values on rival teams, it just adds to your credibility. Like, if you were just coming out here saying to draft all the Buccaneers players, people would be quick to just kind of brush that off. So shout out to you for looking behind beyond the fandom and finding value on other teams. Now, if you're watching the show, I just want to say we're going to be back tomorrow night. We're doing a live stream right here on YouTube.com footballguysfantasy we're drafting an NFFC team for the football guys online championship. Jeff, Bella and myself. This is going to be a loaded live stream. We have three of the last five online championship winners joining this draft plus myself, plus some other friends or our buddy Mike sand is going to be in there. So a lot of big names that you know from the high stakes arena. We're going to be drafted right here at 8pm Eastern. Be sure to check that out if you haven't signed up at NFFC yet. Right. They are doing $100 free for all new users with promo code. First time 100. So you're essentially getting a $350 entry for $250 with a chance to win $300,000. So nffc.com, be sure to check that out. Look in the lobby and see if there is a draft coming up that fits your schedule. Hope to see it in there. But let's go ahead and talk about my wide receiver here, Joey say Flowers. This is a guy that is a first round talent who has just steadily improved every single year that he has been in the league and last sixth among all wide receivers in receiving yards. Didn't have the touchdowns. So I think it just kind of went unnoticed that Zay Flowers had a True breakout in 2025 and just such a fun schedule to start the season. Week one he gets Indianapolis who gave up the third most points to opposing wide receivers last year, then New Orleans who gave up the 22nd. Not crazy about that. Dallas in week three gave up more points to opposing wide receivers than any team last year and then Tennessee in week four gave up the sixth most points to opposing receivers. So weeks, weeks three and weeks four are all top six defenses for wide receivers. And I look at this higher yes, there's no John Harbaugh, they've got a new offensive coordinator. But I can't help but get kind of excited about Declan Doyle who was the offensive coordinator for the Bears last year. A very young guy. He was 29 years old last year going into his age 30 season this year and spent that season in 2025 under Ben Johnson. You've got to imagine that he wants to install a similar offense here in Baltimore and Zay Flowers kind of fits the same MO as an Amanra St. Brown Luther Burden archetype. That guy who could get open immediately off the line of scrimmage, can play off of a slot, can do things after the catch. This offense is going to want a twitched up wide receiver who can quickly separate. That's exactly what Zay Flowers does. So this is a 25 year old first round pick coming off a career year with a great schedule to start the season. And now he has this young and innovative offensive coordinator who can draw up even more design plays for him that work best with his skill set. First of all, like just on a zooming out looking at the whole season, I want as much Zay Flowers as I can get this year. But when you look specifically at that early season schedule as well, Zay Flowers got off to a good start last year. I expect him to get off to another good start in 2026.
- [21:37]
Joey
Yeah, there's the things I like about Zay Flowers. Like if you look at what the Ravens did in this NFL draft, like they drafted pieces to surround him, him, not to support him, not to try to take over for him. Where I think if people look at the Jordan Tyson Crystal lobby, there's that debate. The Zay Flowers is the alpha wide receiver in this offense. So I love the call out here, the offensive coordinator, I'm really excited to see what he does because you mentioned like the Luther Burden comps with him and Zay Flowers is somebody that when Baltimore drafted him and I know you can't get fantasy points by having fun watching a player, but I don't know if there's been a player I've had as more fun watching play the game the last two years in. Zay Flowers highlight real catches. And sometimes when you need to draft a fantasy player, you need some fun on your team. Once again, I know this doesn't translate to points, but I do believe Zay Flowers will get points and he'll get you fun points. Which, listen, let's make that a new setting of leaks.
- [22:33]
Dave
And I still think that there's kind of an unreached ceiling that we haven't seen with say Flowers yet. Because if you watch his Boston College tape, this guy was one of the best deep threats in the fbs. I mean, he was just consistently blowing the top off of defenses, scoring these 50, 60, 70 yard touchdowns. And then he came into the NFL and they immediately used him as this, like near the line of scrimmage, create after the catch a lot of gimmicky touches. We've seen that role start to change a little bit where now he's lining up all over the formation, still running some deep threats or deep routes, but we haven't really seen him used as that guy who can get behind defenses yet. So I think some more creative usage here. You know, I don't want to draw all the comps to Ben Johnson's offenses. Declan Doyle is his own guy. But if we can see him getting some of that you know, near the line of scrimmage usage that he's so good at doing, while also playing a little bit deeper as well. Then we can see a new ceiling here from Zay Flowers. So like I said, just a guy that I am going to be aggressively drafting all offseason. Not every sale happens at the register before AT&T business Wireless checking out customers on our mobile POS systems to took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sailor too. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.
- [23:56]
Joey
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Dave
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- [24:31]
Dave
Now Joey, I've noticed that every time we talk about tight ends, you're never going for the cream off the top. You're not talking about the Brock Bowers and the Trey McBrides and the Colson Lovelands and the Tyler Warrens. You're reaching deep. Like last week you were talking about Terrence Ferguson and this week you're going to be talking about TJ Hawkinson. So you know, I'm starting to notice a theme here. I'm guessing you we know you like to wait on quarterbacks. I'm guessing you also like to wait on tight ends and find gold late. So talk to me about TJ Hawkinson and why he kind of fits that mold this year.
- [25:02]
Joey
Well, real quick, it's an either or situation. I'm either waiting on tight end or I'm waiting on quarterback. If I take one early, I'm taking the other late. So it's like a Ying and yang approach. Shout out. What is it? Andrew Cooper.
- [25:12]
Dave
Andrew Cooper?
- [25:13]
Joey
Yeah. Who? See, who says that? He has coined that phrase. I think it was around before him. But listen, we'll give you this one. Coop. I love Coop. I'm just. I like to give him a hard time. It does pay me to say the T.J. hawkinson, though, because I traded him away in a Dynasty league. Now, I know we're talking redraft today, but I sent him out the other week and because I just like ah, you know it was before the schedule release and then I saw the schedule release and he's kind of slipped so far in ADP that I think he might be a tight end value again. Currently going off the board is the tight end 22 since 2023 tight end top five tight end seasons. So three of those seasons. But, but we are a couple seasons removed from them. And like a couple other players I mentioned today, he did have a nice little end of the season where he awarded fantasy managers with double digit points in three of his final four games heading into 2026. He's got a new quarterback motivated with the Vikings to get back in the playoffs and Kyler Murray and I could see Hawkinson kind of serving as that early check down safety blanket for Murray early in the season. He's got the Bucks and the Dolphins in the first four weeks weeks. Two of the just easiest teams for tight ends to play against. Both teams allowed 16 fantasy points or more to the game to the position last year per game. And I'm not suggesting you draft Hawkinson over. You mentioned Trey McBride and Brock Powers. Like I don't reach for the cream. Yeah. Like don't draft them anywhere near those guys. But if you're waiting on quarterback or you miss on one of those guys, TJ Hawkinson could be somebody you grab late. They couldn't end up giving you top 12 tight end value by the end of the season season.
- [26:45]
Dave
So do you have any fear that we're going to be seeing a Trey McBride type of season from TJ Hawkinson where he's garnering elite usage and getting yards and just not scoring? Like there was always this idea that like Kyler Murray just like wasn't looking at his tight ends near the red zone. Do you subscribe to that notion or do you think that it was just kind of fluky, the lack of touchdowns that Trey McBride had with Kyler Murray?
- [27:07]
Joey
I think it's fluky with Kyler Murray but I do think it's legitimately something you need to mention. I mean T.J. hawkinson has, has made his bread and butter over in the end zone in the red zone. So I, I think it's worth mentioning. But his a tight end 22, it's, it's such a tremendous value at this point that you can take him as like your second tight end if you wanted to and see what happens. At the beginning of the season though, it's, it's a strong start for him.
- [27:30]
Dave
And you know speaking back to Andrew Cooper who, yeah, thinks he invented this yin yang theory. Like he was around before Dow. Come on. Like that. That wasn't Andrew Cooper. But he also, he likes to talk about age curves and the tight end age curves. We get so used to like being wrapped up with like running backs that just like fall off at like 24, 25, 26 years old. Tight ends, it is completely different. These guys enter their athletic prime at like 28, 29, 30 years old. So we could still be looking at TJ Hawkinson's best years ahead of him. And 2023 was when he had that ACL injury. He was trending for a career year. Before that injury, he was on pace for a thousand yards and then went down late in the year with the acl. You got to remember that though, this guy is a former first round pick. Not just a first round pick, the eighth overall pick in the NFL draft. Expectations were sky high for him. And then, yeah, you know these guys that are 6 foot 5, 260 pounds, it does take them a little bit longer. Like we saw Kyle Pitts. It took him like two full years to kind of come back from that MCL injury. Now TJ Hawkinson gets hurt late in 2023, 2024, doesn't look like himself. 2025, doesn't look like himself. It's always scary betting on players to rewind the clock after years of down production from a major injury does happen. And now TJ Hawkinson is coming into the season two years fully removed from that acl. He should be in an improved situation with Kyler Murray. So this is one of those, like, if he was a sure thing, he'd be getting drafted much higher. But he is falling so late into drafts because of these question marks. But the upside is still there and he's somebody who could crush his adp. So, Joey, TJ Hawkinson wasn't a guy that I planned on drafting a lot of this year. But as I get into these drafts and I'm looking for a tight end two, sometimes even a tight end three, he is so cheap in drafts that I find myself walking out with a lot of T.J. hawkinson.
- [29:17]
Joey
Yeah. And honestly, it doesn't feel right. And like I said, I traded him off last week in a dynasty league. And I think he can understand why I would do that with the age and, you know, two years of down production. But yeah, tight end 22 even seems insulting for him.
- [29:32]
Dave
Yeah. Now I'm going to talk about the third New York Giant on the show, and I'm not going to run through the schedule again because we've already done that a bunch. Dallas Rams, Tennessee and Arizona to open the year is very nice for the Giants. But you know, I talked about Tyrone Tracy liking him because of the contingent injury upside if scatter Boo isn't 100 ready to go. That's kind of why I'm looking at Isaiah Likely as well. And I know you might be watching this show. You may have never watched this show before. Maybe this was just recommended to you by YouTube and you go, oh my gosh, more fantasy touts telling me to draft Isaiah Likely. I have not been one of the Isaiah Likely guys. You know, I have kind of been a doubter over the last couple of years. But this is kind of situation specific. Now. We got the news last week that Malik Neighbors had a second procedure done on his knee and despite what the beat reporters are trying to tell us that this is good news. I'm just not buying it when I see a second procedure this late in the off season that concerns me a little bit. So if Neighbors isn't ready to go, let's just zoom out and look at the Giants pass catchers. We've got Darius Slayton going into his age 29 season and has never had more than 800 yards in a year. We've got Darnell Mooney, 29 years old, five years removed from his breakout season, has been very inconsistent throughout his career. We got Kelvin Austin joining the team, 162 pound free agent who just kind of stretches the field, doesn't do much outside of that. Malachi Fields, a third round rookie. There isn't a lot to get excited about. To me it would make sense though that John Harbaugh wants to feature the guy that they just went out and spent a bunch of money on in free agency. He's got a top five contract, right? He has familiarity with John Harbaugh, knows what John John Harbaugh asks of his tight ends and he's a guy who can play out of the slot, can play in line, can move all over the formation and kind of be that safety blanket for Jackson Dart. So I know people have been predicting this Isaiah Likely breakout for years and it hasn't really realized yet. Did it work for those people? Joey? No, of course not. They deluded themselves into thinking that Isaiah Likely would be this great fantasy asset. But but this year it might work for us.
- [31:37]
Joey
Yeah, I I just did the Dynasty episode that comes out I think in a couple days with Jeff Bell about narratives, about fantasy narratives to start the season and if you look at all the narratives around Isaiah Likely, it does add up that he's going to be featured prominently in this offense. I was going to pick Isaiah Likely and then I saw you picked him and I was like, well, now I gotta find somebody else. So once again, on the same page on this, this Likely is a player that I have been drafting as a top 12 tight end a lot more recently and just not just in best ball and dynasty anywhere I can get them. I kind of want my hands on him because I do think Harbaugh does want to feature him.
- [32:12]
Dave
Yeah. I mean, if I can walk out of a draft, which I've done plenty of times in these best ball drafts that I'm doing with Dart Likely and Tracy, I feel like I've got a nice little nucleus of players that can all outperform their adp. And Joey, I thought I'd at least get like a smirk from you with the Tobias Fungi quote, but apparently my delivery was off on it. Back to the drawing board. We'll try next week.
- [32:32]
Joey
Do it again. We'll try again. We'll try next week. Okay.
- [32:35]
Dave
Yeah. The best way to really land a joke is just to repeat it and hope that people get it the second time.
- [32:40]
Joey
I'm, I'm a pro. I think explaining your jokes is probably the best thing you can do to make a joke funnier. All right, let's.
- [32:48]
Dave
Let's move on to the flex plays. Joey, give me a flex play that you are drafting this year that could get off to a hot start in fantasy football.
- [32:54]
Joey
Yeah, I've talked about Tony Pollard a lot this offseason. I'm going to continue to talk about him back to back season seasons. Top 24 running back work over a thousand rushing yards in four straight seasons. And I still like Pollard. Kind of is that last safe running back you could take before you hit the dead zone. But he opens up the season with four games against four of the 12 worst teams against opposing running backs. He's got the jets second most fantasy points to running backs and the Giants fourth most fantasy points to running backs last season in those first four games. So look that there. Titans brought in Nicholas Singleton and some people are worried about him. And I do think Nicholas Singleton is going to be involved in this offense once we get past maybe week six or week seven. I think to start the season it's going to be Tony Pollard show. Nicholas Singleton kind of slowly gets brought in. But I mentioned before that I do think that Pollard, this is kind of his make or break season shout Back to a couple weeks ago, we did make or break seasons for players. And this is the type of player that Pollard, I think he's going to go out route performed really well in 2026, and a hot start is just the beginning of that for him.
- [33:59]
Dave
Yeah, I agree. And this is one where you would have thought that coming out of the draft relatively unscathed. Like we said, you know, Nick Singleton, a day three rookie, a guy that we have some excitement for, but he's coming back from a broken foot. Might not be 100% in this 2026 season. Tony Pollard should have been a big mover in adp. Like you look at how the draft played out for him, he should have moved up a round or two, but it's still staying exactly where he was before the NFL draft. And I get it. Like dead zone running backs. People have become very privy to this term. Like even the most casual of fantasy drafters now know to avoid dead zone running backs. And Tony Pollard has all of the telltale signs of a dead zone running back. But every once in a while we do have these guys kind of the, the undertaker meme, you know, just resurrecting themselves in the running back dead zone. And I think that Tony Pollard could be one of them. And Joey, you know, another guy who I think think could emerge as a potential riser, a guy who lives from the dead zone, who David Montgomery, who I'm going to talk about, look at that. And you know, I actually on the fly, kind of switch the order up here because I think it works so well. But David Montgomery is a guy that I've talked about a lot that I like right now at his current value and already talked about Houston's schedule being good for quarterbacks when I talked about CJ Stroud, also good for running backs last year. Buffalo in week one gave up the eighth most points to opposing running backs. Cincinnati in week two gave up the most points to opposing running backs. Indianapolis in week third, in week three, 22nd most points to running backs. And then Dallas in week five gave up the fifth most points to running backs. So three of the first four games this season are against defenses that were top ten in opposing points given up to running backs last year. And the case for David Montgomery, I've talked about it a lot. Let me just go through kind of rapid fire here. Strong efficiency profile, little touch competition, clean bill of health going into the season. Improved offensive line in Houston. Lots of tread on his tires from splitting touches with Jameer Gibbs over the years. Houston went out of their way to trade for him. He projects as the clear running back, one with little touch competition, a run first philosophy in this Nick Kaylee offense. The case against David Montgomery, Joey, he's going to be 29 years old. That's pretty much it. Like, I get it, like, we don't want to bet on these aging running backs, but we have seen the blueprint for how the Texans want to treat their backfield. They want to bring in these older, talented running backs and just run them until the wheels fall off. I'm going to continue betting on David Montgomery as that dead zone running back who can emerge as a potential league winner here. Especially when seeing what that early season schedule looks like.
- [36:37]
Joey
Like, yeah, and I was the David Montgomery doubter earlier this off season, but I really have changed my tune on him. And something you mentioned with the, you know, lots of tread left on the tires, you know, he say he's 29. He's like a fresh 29. You know, Jameer Gibbs had a lot of work the last three years with the Sonnel. Was it Sonic and Knuckles? Is that what they were known as?
- [36:55]
Dave
Yep, Sonic and Knuckles, yeah.
- [36:56]
Joey
Yeah. So as the Knuckles part of the duo there. So, yeah, I like Dave Montgomery coming into Houston. He's a fresh 29. He doesn't have as much mileage on him. So yeah, I'm right there with him.
- [37:06]
Dave
And what we saw in each of his three years in Detroit was that his volume dipped down but his efficiency ticked up. So now, you know, we'd assume that going into age 29, we might see a little bit of a dip in efficiency. You know, the offensive line isn't quite as good. He's not going to be running against gas defenses like he was when Jameer Gibbs would come off the field. But a bigger workload and still a good, talented running back. I think like the worst case scenario here is that he gets enough volume to return low end RB2 production. And the best case scenario is that he has a Joe Mixon type of year where he's just getting 100 yards and a touchdown seemingly every single week with no competition for touches in what could be a better Houston offense. So, you know, love David Montgomery as a whole in drafts this year, but when that schedule came out and I saw what Houston gets over the first month of the season, there's going to be no chance to buy low on David Montgomery early. If you want him, you're going to have to draft him because he could easily be a top 10 running back through the first month of the season. Joey, again with the depreciated tight ends. You've got another cheap tight end you want to talk about here as a flex option. Let's hear about Mark Andrews because this is a very intriguing name.
- [38:12]
Joey
Real cheap, real cheap. The thing with Mark Andrews, he's a little different than all the other players I talked about. Most of the other players that I talked about today had really Strong finishes to 2025 rolling into the season. Some of the big reasons I like them. Mark Andrews had an awful lot finish to the season last year. Just dreadful. But I could see him having a fantastic start. John Harbaugh is gone now along with Isaiah Likely the offense is in transition at this point. The two dependable pass catching options that the Ravens have at this point are Zay Flowers and still Mark Andrews and the rookies they brought in, they're going to take time to develop. We're just a season or move from where Andrews went for double digit fantasy points in 12 of his 15 start starts and finishes the tight end six. So we're not far away from Mark Andrews being an elite fantasy option. Baltimore starts the season with four matchups in their first five weeks. You are kind of laid them out with Zay Flowers that see offenses that bleed fantasy points to pass catchers most notably the first and second worst teams against receivers and Dallas and Indianapolis just put it out there. Dallas is like the free space if your team's going against Dallas because what Dallas also has just a side note here is they have a great offense so it's going to be a shootout which is like the best possible thing to get. Like that Rams Chiefs Monday Night Football game. You have the option of that of possibly every week the chances that's it's such a nice thing to have back to Andrews like Hawkinson though earlier Andrews the tight end we've seen quality fantasy production from in the past. It's got a great start to the 2026 season and if you miss on the big names on tight end in on draft day, Andrews is the perfect fit for your team. Possible tight end tight end production this season. It's not out of the realm of possibility with them.
- [39:57]
Dave
Yeah and again you know talking about this Declan Doyle offense, we'll see if he picked up a thing or two from Ben Johnson. But we saw Sam Laporta, we've seen even Cole Comet in small doses while Colson Loveland was getting up to speed. And then of course what Colson Loveland did over the second half of the season. These move tight ends they can catch passes and create after the catch end up being very focal points of this offense. So I don't know if we've seen enough from Declan Doyle. Just one year as an offensive coordinator and he wasn't even the play caller there. We'll see kind of what he was able to learn from Ben Johnson, but you can easily see the upside for a tight end in this offense as well. Last guy I'm going to talk about here, Tedro McMillan, and you'll never guess why I'm talking about him, but I love his early season schedule here. Week one he gets to go up against Chicago and what's going to be a very fun game. You know, there's so much talk about Caleb Williams and Bryce Young kind of being tied together throughout their careers because of that big trade that Carolina and Chicago made. They'll play each other week one, but for Teterow and McMillan, that's great news because Chicago gave up more points to opposing wide receivers than any team last year. In week two they get to face off against Atlanta, who gave up the 11th most points to wide receivers. Week three against Cleveland, not the best matchup, they were 26 in points allowed. But then week five, a big bounce back week against Cleveland against the Detroit Lions, who were fifth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last year. And Tenerell McMillan checked every box that we want to see. In his rookie season, 13th in the league in target share with a 25.4% target share, he was sixth in the league in air yard share, pulling 40.9% of the team's air yards. Last season this guy was the 8th overall pick, huge size, 80th percentile in size, adjusted speed. We obviously like the prospect a lot and then he came into the NFL and gave us reasons to believe that his skill set will translate to the NFL. It's also not uncommon for these big bodied receivers to take a year or two or three to kind of get up to NFL speed. Tedro McMillan came out the gate and did it immediately in week one and then just got better as the season progressed. So there's reason to believe that this guy can be a budding superstar. Of course the concern here is that Bryce Young hasn't really taken that big step forward. Like still not even really a league average quarterback. It's also a very run one first philosophy here that Dave Canales coaches, but still when you look at them playing against Chicago, Atlanta and Detroit, those are all offenses that should put up points and put them in a position where they have to throw Much like you were just saying about why we are targeting teams that are going up against Dallas every single week. In the two games last year that we saw, Bryce Young was forced to air it out. He actually looked really good. On average, teams last year had five plus games where they had to throw the ball 35 times or more. The Panthers only had to do it Twice. In those two games though, Bryce Young went for 328 yards and three touchdowns, and 448 yards and three touchdowns. So when asked to throw the ball, he can be productive as a quarterback. And of course, Teterom McMillan is the biggest beneficiary in those game scripts. So looking at that early season schedule, Teterom McMillan, again, a guy who can get out the gate really strong. And looking at him, you know, a young first round pick who showed signs of life as a rookie. If he ends up starting the season like that, he is going to be untouchable in fantasy trades. So another one of these players that if you're hoping that you might be able to buy mid season, I don't think it's going to happen with Tedro McMillan. This guy, like just about everybody we've talked about today has top 10 upside through that first month of the season. And that makes him so alluring in your fantasy drafts.
- [43:24]
Joey
Yeah, absolutely. With, with Tedro McMillan, the team around him got better too. You know, with Chris Brazel, Jalen Coker is going to be healthy now. Now, like I don't see that target share coming down. I might actually even see it going up with other options on the field to kind of draw. Like we mentioned with Chris Olave. Like, I love Tedro McMun and a lot of it is because of Bryce Young. You know, last year we were both so in on him and we saw the sparks of it and we mentioned that, you know, number one overall picks in the previous episode. You know, by season two they've got it together and they're producing top 10 quarterback numbers. I think this is the year for Bryce Young to start getting closer to that. I don't think he'll be at a top 12, but Tedro was going to be a huge part of that.
- [44:07]
Dave
Yeah, I was on Yahoo. Fantasy. I forget what the show, the Matt Harmon show on Yahoo. Fantasy. And we had a long discussion about Bryce Young last week and I kind of jokingly said that his rookie season he was the worst quarterback in the league. If you look at the EPA per drop back in year two, he was bottom five. In year three last year he was bottom ten. So we're trending towards Bryce Young being a league average quarterback this year if he keeps on this current pace. Jokes aside though, I mean, I do think Bryce Young is a little bit better than the overall production would make you think that he is. And just a minor step forward. Just some negative game scripts that force them to throw the ball out. That's all it takes to really unlock Ted roll McMillan. Well, Joey, any final thoughts today? I know this was a fun show topic that you came up with and at first I wasn't really sold on it, but then the more I thought about it, I am the guy so often that just ends up drafting all these injury away running backs and rookies. And I'm sitting there looking at my roster at one in five, clawing for a playoff win and just trying to like build a team that's going to be strongest late in the year. But this was a good thought exercise that got me looking at some players that I already like that could also potentially help me get off to a fast start, which isn't something I typically prioritize. So this was a fun exercise pulling these players out and also kind of changed the way that I'm going to be looking at fantasy drafts going into this season.
- [45:28]
Joey
Yeah, I think my words to you are, this is how I win. Like I really do. I look at these matchups in the first four to six weeks of the season and look back at what the defenses did the year before. And I will say, these players we pulled today, a lot of. I was going to pull a lot of the same ones if you didn't grab them. But shout out to the NFL schedule makers because. Because usually there are a lot more. Because on my sheet it's green or red and sometimes yellow. There was a lot more like Paths of Green in years past. It's like checkers this year. There's spots in everybody's schedule that are a little tough to start out, but the players we kind of highlighted today do, in my mind, they have the best starts. So these are the guys you're going to want to put on your team to start the season off. And what's great about some of these guys is after they have great starts, if you don't believe in the second half of the season season, just send them away on the fantasy production they did.
- [46:18]
Dave
And you know, you do talk about that like there was nobody that had like, wow, like this guy's top 10 matchups every single week. Every player I talked about it was like, C.J. stroud. Yeah, yeah. He's got to play Buffalo and you know he's got that one tough matchup. And Tedro McMillan, yeah, he's got to face Cleveland. Like everybody has at least one matchup that you don't feel great about in that first month of the season. But I feel like as a whole like we have swung so hard to just like upside, upside, upside. Like you just want these injury away running backs, you want these rookies that are going to come on strong late in the season, that this is probably one of the few edges that you actually have is drafting these unsexy names that could start the season hot. But you pair some of those up with the injury away running backs, then you're not sitting there at 1 in 5 hoping that your team is good enough to get you into the playoffs. Then maybe you're sitting at.500 at the midway point of the season and you have a strong, strong team going into the playoffs. So love this thought exercise, love the players we came up with today and hope that you, the audience was able to learn a thing or two here. As always, please if you have made it this far into the video and have not left a comment yet, do that. Give us a thumbs up. And of course subscribe on YouTube if you haven't. And if you are listening on Apple podcasts, please, please, please leave us a review. We love hearing what you guys think about the show. If you have any fun topics or ideas for shows between now and week one, let us know. On Apple we check all of those reviews and if you have a good thoughtful idea, we can try to implement that into our show schedule before the season kicks off. But I want to thank you all so much for taking the time to tune in. I will be back later this week with Jeff Bell and then I'll be back on Friday with a rotating football guy staffer. As always, thank you so much for tuning in and we'll see you soon. When it's time to scale your business, it's time for Shopify. Get everything you need to grow the way you want. Like all the way. Stack more sales with the best converting checkout on the planet. Track your cha chings from every channel right in one spot and turn real time reporting into big time opportunities. Take your business to a whole new level. Switch to Shopify. Start your free trial today.